鲍威尔表示，美国失业率维持在低位但略有上升。通胀近期有所上升，仍处于略高水平。美国通胀风险 上行，就业风险下行。明年之后，多数通胀预期指标将符合2%的目标。预计今年和明年关税推动的价 格上涨趋势将持续。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间9月17日，美联储主席鲍威尔在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议结束 后，在美联储总部举行新闻发布会。 当日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决定将联邦基金利 率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%-4.25%之间。这是美联储自2024年12月以来的首次降息。（央视记 者 刘旭） 当被问及白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰加入美联储，该机构如何能保持其在公众眼中的独立性 时，鲍威尔表示，美联储"坚定致力于"保持其不受政治影响的独立性。 鲍威尔补充说，美联储应该观望关税、通胀和劳动力市场如何发展，然后再降息。 编辑 刘佳妮 ...

东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲对记者分析称，尽管美联储主席在FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）中对货币政策决议只有一票，在形式上与其他委 员一致，但作为美联储的核心人物，其无论是在对内设置会议议程与引导讨论，还是在对外沟通表态上，均能对货币政策整体风向产生举足轻 重的影响。由于鲍威尔任期即将于2026年5月到期，因此选择一位更加鸽派的主席候选人成为了特朗普目前对美联储独立性干预最直接的手 段。 从种种迹象来看，美联储独立性面临的挑战才刚开始，一场更大的风暴或在酝酿。 图片来源：新华社 美联储独立性风暴暗流涌动。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间9月16日，美国白宫发言人表示，特朗普政府将就法院阻止撤换美联储理事莉萨·库克的裁决提出上诉。此前美国联 邦上诉法院裁定，阻止美国总统特朗普在美联储议息会议召开前将理事莉萨·库克撤职。 与此同时，特朗普提名的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰于16日宣誓就职，火速参与美联储9月利率决议，他与库克共处美联储会议桌的同一个角落， 两人之间仅隔着1名理事。 而到了明年，美联储主席鲍威尔将卸任，特朗普将通过提名新任主席对美联储施加更大影响。 罢免库克事件争议重重 特朗普政府罢免库克一案被视为对美联储独立性的 ...

当地时间17日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。 消息一出，投资者开始评估美联储利率决定和预测，美股闻风而动。与此同时，美联储能否维持其独立 性再次引发外界担忧。 就业增长放缓 风险平衡变化 美联储降息 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会17日发布声明称，今年上半年美国经济活动增长有所放缓，就业增 长放缓，失业率小幅上升，通货膨胀率上升并在一定程度上保持高位。委员会寻求长期实现就业最大化 和2%的通货膨胀率。而经济前景的不确定性依然很高。委员会注意到了任务所面临的风险，并判断就 业的下行风险已经上升。为支持委员会达成目标，并考虑到风险平衡的转变，委员会决定将联邦基金利 率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。 美联储预测显示，到年底将再降息50个基点，未来两年每年再降息25个基点。此外，美联储17日发布最 新一期经济前景预期，其中的"点阵图"显示，19名美联储官员中有9名预计今年将再进行两次降息，2位 预计再降息一次，6位认为不会进一步降息。 鲍 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the first rate cut of the year, with expectations for further cuts in the coming months [2][4][5] - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.33%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.57%, indicating mixed performance across major indices [1] - The market had anticipated the rate cut, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point reduction prior to the announcement, and expectations for additional cuts in October and December [3][4] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the decision to cut rates was a "risk management decision" due to signs of a slowing labor market and rising inflation [5][6] - Powell emphasized a shift in focus from controlling inflation to ensuring "full employment," reflecting concerns about the labor market's health [6][7] - The article highlights the contrasting performance of large tech stocks, with companies like Tesla and Apple seeing slight gains, while others like Nvidia and Amazon experienced declines [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut since December 2024, lowering rates by 25 basis points, signaling a shift in focus from combating inflation to boosting employment [1][4][7] - The Fed's statement removed previous affirmations of a strong labor market, acknowledging a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in unemployment, indicating rising risks in employment [4][7] - The median expectation from the Fed's dot plot suggests a total rate cut of 0.5 percentage points by the end of the year, with two more 25 basis point cuts anticipated in the remaining meetings [4][10] Group 2 - Barclays Research predicts a slight increase in the unemployment rate and heightened risks in employment, suggesting the Fed may implement two more 25 basis point cuts in October and December [3][11] - The Fed's inflation forecasts have been adjusted, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation expected to be 2.6% in 2026, indicating a longer path to achieving the 2% target [6][10] - The recent employment data shows a significant downward revision in non-farm payrolls, with the U.S. experiencing negative job growth over the past four months, justifying the 25 basis point cut [9][19] Group 3 - The appointment of Stephen I. Miran, a proponent of aggressive rate cuts, has introduced political dynamics into the Fed's decision-making process, as he voted against the 25 basis point cut [12][14] - The Fed's internal divisions regarding future rate cuts are evident, with varying predictions among officials about the number and magnitude of future cuts [15][19] - Market reactions to the rate cut have been mixed, with initial gains in U.S. stocks followed by a reversal, indicating uncertainty about the economic outlook and the effectiveness of the Fed's policies [17][19] Group 4 - Analysts express concerns that the current economic environment may lead to speculative bubbles if additional monetary easing is applied to an economy that is not weak [18][19] - The historical context of past rate cuts shows that while equities may experience volatility, gold often benefits from a declining dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets during such periods [25][19] - The Fed's recent actions are seen as part of a broader trend towards a more dovish monetary policy framework, reflecting changing macroeconomic conditions and labor market dynamics [15][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, its implications for the stock market, and the contrasting performance of U.S. and Chinese stocks following the announcement [4][5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, lowering it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [4]. - Market expectations were aligned with the Fed's decision, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point cut prior to the announcement [5]. - The Fed's updated projections indicate an expectation of two more rate cuts this year, reflecting concerns over a slowing labor market [7]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the decision was a "risk management" move, emphasizing the need to balance inflation control with employment stability [8][10]. - Powell noted a slowdown in U.S. economic growth and rising inflation, alongside significant risks to the labor market, which has shown signs of weakness [9][10]. - The market reacted with volatility, as the Nasdaq index experienced a drop of over 1% during trading after Powell's comments [9]. Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results post-announcement, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.57%, while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indices fell by 0.33% and 0.1%, respectively [2]. - In contrast, Chinese stocks performed strongly, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 2.85%, driven by significant gains in companies like Baidu and NIO [3].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is characterized as a risk management measure, indicating that a sustained rate-cutting cycle is not anticipated [1] - Economic growth in the U.S. has shown signs of slowing down in the first half of the year, while inflation remains elevated, leading to increased downward risks in the labor market [1] - The Fed is shifting its focus from primarily controlling inflation to also emphasizing the goal of "full employment" due to evident signs of labor market cooling [1] Group 2 - There is a notable divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate projections, reflecting a complex risk environment [2] - Powell emphasized that the Fed operates based on data and does not consider political factors in its decision-making process, asserting the institution's independence [2] - The only dissenting vote against the 25 basis point cut came from a member who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction, indicating varied opinions within the Fed [2] Group 3 - Powell stated that the Fed's policy has been on the right track this year, contrasting it with previous periods of significant rate adjustments [3] - The impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration appears to be primarily borne by importing companies, with minimal immediate price increases for consumers [3] - Companies have indicated plans to pass on more costs to consumers in the future, which could lead to higher prices [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 50 basis points was a risk management decision, with limited support from the FOMC [3][6][7] - The current economic situation is rare, leading to significant divergence in interest rate forecasts among FOMC members [4][12] - Revised employment data indicates a weakening labor market, with rising unemployment and slowing job growth, raising substantial downside risks [4][10][22] Group 2 - Inflation transmission from tariffs has slowed, with a smaller impact than expected, contributing 0.3-0.4 percentage points to core PCE inflation [5][11][56] - The Fed remains committed to maintaining its independence and did not directly respond to criticisms from Treasury Secretary [4][40] - The Fed's median forecast indicates GDP growth of 1.6% this year and 1.8% next year, with unemployment expected to rise to 4.5% by year-end [10][12][66] Group 3 - The labor market is facing unique challenges, particularly for entry-level positions, with AI potentially impacting job opportunities for recent graduates [4][52][34] - The Fed's decision to cut rates reflects a shift towards a more neutral policy stance in response to increasing employment risks [12][33][66] - The economic growth structure is complex, with strong corporate investment driven by AI, but concerns remain about the sustainability of this growth [45][66]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. unemployment rate remains low but has slightly increased, while inflation has risen and is still at a slightly elevated level. Inflation risks are on the rise, and employment risks are on the decline. Most inflation expectation indicators are expected to align with the 2% target after next year. Price increases driven by tariffs are anticipated to continue this year and next [2]. - Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve should observe the developments in tariffs, inflation, and the labor market before deciding to lower interest rates. The latest FOMC meeting minutes revealed that the Federal Reserve decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%. This marks the first rate cut since December 2024 [3]. - When asked about the potential impact of White House economic advisor Stephen Milan joining the Federal Reserve on its independence, Powell stated that the Federal Reserve is "firmly committed" to maintaining its independence from political influence [2].

Group 1 - Recent inflation has risen and remains at relatively high levels, primarily driven by increases in commodity prices, while the overall impact of tariffs on inflation is still under observation [1] - The labor market faces downside risks, with a noticeable slowdown in demand, low hiring rates, and low layoff rates indicating a weakening labor market, particularly affecting vulnerable groups [1] - There is no broad support for a rapid adjustment of interest rates, with the idea of a 50 basis point rate cut not widely endorsed [1] Group 2 - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is working to address factors behind employment data revisions, with annual employment data adjustments aligning closely with expectations, and the Federal Reserve's reliance on BLS data remains sufficient for its needs [1] - The committee welcomes new members and remains committed to fulfilling its dual mandate while maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Among 19 policymakers, 10 anticipate two or more rate cuts in the remaining months of the year, while the other 10 expect fewer cuts [1]