美联储风暴席卷全球：美元信仰崩塌，普通人如何自保？ 华尔街交易员彻夜未眠，东京街头的理发师紧盯屏幕，远隔重洋的投资者们，此刻正被一场由美联储刮起的金融风暴所裹挟。这场风暴的源头，始于美国总 统对美联储理事史无前例的撤换，此举如同撕裂了长期以来维系市场信心的基石——美联储的独立性。 回想过去，美联储的地位曾如同"定海神针"，其主席的每一次发言都牵动着全球经济的神经。美元资产一度是全球避险资金的首选，被视为稳如磐石的"理 财信仰"。然而，如今的美联储，却似乎被套上了总统的"缰绳"，独立性荡然无存。曾经的"理财信仰"岌岌可危，全球市场一片哗然。 而这场风暴的最终承担者，往往是普通投资者。过去被视作"安全区"的美债、美元理财产品，如今已成"割韭菜"的高危地带。你以为买入的是稳妥，却不知 风向转瞬即变。亚洲盘黄金一度冲破3386.27美元/盎司，创下半个月新高，日元甚至成了避险新宠。一句"美元不如囤金豆豆"，已然在普通民众中流传开 来。 全球股市也无一幸免。MSCI最广泛亚太指数开盘下跌0.2%，日经指数跳水1.3%，韩国、上证、恒生指数集体飘绿。欧洲方面，斯托克50、DAX、富时指数 期货同样绿油油一片。投资群里有人 ...

美联储理事Lisa Cook在诉状中警告美国总统特朗普，将她免职会让美国经济将出现"无法弥补的伤 害"。Cook在起诉文件中驳斥特朗普对她涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈的指控，称那仅仅是解雇她、试图掌控美联 储的一个借口而已。Cook希望，美国法官能颁布一份临时禁止令——在官司发生的情况下阻止特朗普 将她免职的决定生效，从而维持美联储的现状、并保护美国公众的利益。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 欧洲央行管委雷恩称，如果美联储的独立性遭到破坏，通胀将不可避免地上升。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Currency Concerns - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve continue to impact the dollar, leading to its decline following Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook [1] - Deutsche Bank analysts noted that these concerns have prompted investors to factor in faster rate cuts and higher inflation [1] Group 2: Commodity Currencies and Economic Policies - Goldman Sachs indicated that while the dollar may weaken, caution is advised when pursuing commodity currencies like the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars, which have shown relative weakness [2] - The underperformance of these currencies is attributed to domestic policy shifts and declining terminal rate pricing in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada [2] Group 3: UK Monetary Policy - Pantheon Macroeconomics analysts expect the Bank of England to slow its quantitative tightening to £700 billion from the current £1 trillion within the next 12 months [2] - This adjustment reflects growing concerns over the impact of quantitative tightening on the UK government bond market [2] Group 4: France's Fiscal Situation - Despite France's poor public finance situation, it is unlikely to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund, with potential reliance on the European Stability Mechanism or European Central Bank instead [3] - The yield spread between French and German bonds has widened, reaching 82 basis points, indicating increased risk due to political tensions [3] Group 5: South Korea's Inflation Outlook - South Korea's inflation may have eased in August, allowing the central bank to consider further policy easing to support economic growth [4] - Analysts predict the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise by 1.9% year-on-year, down from 2.1% in July, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.2% [4]

彭博社8月28日报道，美联储理事莉萨·库克已提起诉讼，反对美国总统特朗普以"她在抵押贷款申请中 撒谎"为由将其解雇。 根据法庭记录，库克于28日在华盛顿联邦法院提起了该诉讼。目前尚未能获取完整的起诉状内容。 彭博社称，此举打响了围绕美联储独立性的历史性抗争，标志着白宫与美联储之间日益激烈的冲突已大 幅升级。 库克于2022年被时任美国总统拜登提名、经美国国会批准出任美联储理事，也是美联储首位非洲裔女性 理事。根据美国法律，美国总统只能"因故"罢免美联储理事，但对于哪些情况符合"因故解雇"，法律并 无明确界定。 关于抵押贷款问题，库克曾回应说："作为美联储成员，我的确会认真对待任何有关我财务历史的问 题，因此我正在收集准确的信息，以回答任何合理的问题并提供事实。" 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）26日报道称，在美联储111年历史里，这是首次有美国总统试图解雇美联 储理事。 美联储的独立性旨在减少行政干预，以便其能够专注于经济数据。美国政客通常喜欢更低的利率，借此 提振股价并让民众以更低的成本借贷。但较低利率可能引发通货膨胀压力，维持过高的利率则可能过度 抑制消费和就业，从而损害经济。 彭博社指出，投资者将密切关注 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the legal battle surrounding President Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, highlighting the implications for the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential impact on financing costs, with some investors expressing optimism about lower rates despite concerns over institutional integrity [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - The market reacted calmly to Trump's actions, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remaining stable, while the Nasdaq saw a slight increase of 0.3%. Long-term Treasury yields rose, and short-term yields fell, indicating investor expectations of potential rate cuts in the short term [3]. - Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, believes that the current monetary policy is overly tight, with rates 150 basis points above neutral levels, suggesting that the Fed's policies are excessively suppressing economic growth [3][5]. - Hatfield anticipates at least two rate cuts this year, aligning with dovish signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and views the potential for a Republican-dominated Fed Board as a catalyst for rate reductions [7][8]. Group 2: Concerns Over Federal Reserve Independence - Other economists express skepticism about the implications of Trump's actions, warning that his attempts to control the Fed could undermine democratic foundations and institutional integrity [9]. - Analysts from Piper Sandler caution that the market's belief in its ability to constrain Trump is misguided, highlighting past failures to predict economic crises and inflation shocks [10]. - The article notes that the structure of the Fed could be fundamentally altered with more Trump nominees, potentially reshaping the Federal Open Market Committee's power dynamics [10]. Group 3: Short-term Focus and Future Expectations - UBS Global Wealth Management strategists expect the Fed to cut rates by a total of 100 basis points over the next four meetings, while acknowledging increasing political pressure on the Fed [11][12]. - Hatfield argues that the real issue lies in the Fed's long-standing ineffectiveness rather than Trump's confrontation, suggesting that any changes to the current situation would be beneficial for the market [12].

截至撰写本文时，白银价格接近38.50美元，在从38.08美元的低点反弹后回升。对美元重新出现的需求和美国国债收益率走强，正在给贵金属带来压力。不 过，由于围绕美联储独立性的不确定性挥之不去，以及美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的鸽派立场引发的降息预期升温，白银的下行势头仍有所缓 解。 白银在4小时图对称三角形态上方的突破未能延续，银价再度承压。这次回调已经将白银拉回了三角形的上边界，现在在100均线附近的关键支撑区域，目前 位于38.13美元附近。如果决定性地跌破这一汇合点支撑位，可能会使最近的看涨突破无效，并使短期势头回到有利于空头的方向。 相对强弱指标（RSI）在50附近徘徊，表明缺乏明确的方向性强弱。与此同时，MACD显示看涨势头减弱。MACD线出现死叉，而条柱已转为负值。 展望未来，近期阻力位见于38.63美元（21周期EMA），随后是周五的高点39.06美元。需要持续突破该区域才能恢复看涨势头，并暴露下一个上行目标，即 39.53美元的多年高点。另一方面，关键支撑位位于38.13美元-38.00美元区域，该区域有100日移动均线和前三角形态的上边界。如果跌破该区域，则表明突 破失败，并为进一步 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年08月28日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价上行,布伦特10合约涨0.82%。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期下降239.2万桶,汽油及 精炼油库存也录得下降，体现夏季用油高峰尾声需求仍有韧性。布伦特临近70美元/桶已基本定价俄 鸟和谈僵局相关供应风险的利多影响，在地缘风险进一步发酵前原油或转为震荡走势，关注旺季因 素支撑过后原油的再次做空机会。 【责金属】 隔夜美元波动剧烈，贵金属高位震荡。本周特朗普罢免美联储官员加剧美联储独立性担忧冲击美元 信用,被解雇理事库克将提起诉讼。国际金银处于震荡趋势之中继续测试上方关键阻力，中期维持 回调买入多头思路。今日关注美国二季度GDP修正值和周度初请失业金数据。 【铜】 隔夜铜价走低，市场对经济表现仍偏谨慎，同时等待美国PCE指标，且关注特朗普与美联储独立性间 的博弈，美元指数波动快。国内现铜79585元，精铜消费受多省梳理再生铜补贴政策减停而受益， 现需要时间等待国内废铜报价的博弈调整。今日关注社库，整数关胆力强,高位空单持有。 【铝】 氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位，行业库存和上期所仓单均持续上升。供应过剩逐渐显现 ...

| Millio | > 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月28日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美元波动剧烈,贵金属高位震荡。本周特朗普罢免美联储官员加剧美联储独立性担忧冲击美元信用,被 解雇理事库克将提起诉讼。国际金银处于震荡趋势之中继续测试上方关键阻力,中期维持回调买入多头思 路。今日关注美国二季度GDP修正值和周度初请失业金数据。 ★关税 --- ①白宫贸易顾问:如果印度停止购买俄罗斯石油,可获得25%的关税优惠。②据悉印度对美国重 新审议对其加征的25%关税的决定抱有希望。③贝森特：印度所做的很多事情都具有"表演性"。④欧盟计 划在本周末前加速推进立法程序,全面取消对美国工业品的关税,以满足特朗普的要求。⑤日本经济再生大 臣赤泽亮正再度 ...

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 39,504 kilograms, with an increase of 2,001 kilograms compared to the previous day [1] - The opening price of gold futures on August 28 was 782.00 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 784.58 CNY and a low of 781.40 CNY, with a current price of 783.22 CNY, reflecting a 0.21% increase [1] - The trading volume for the day was 148,309 contracts, while the open interest decreased by 22,127 contracts to 144,469 contracts [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's third-ranking official indicated that interest rates could be adjusted at every policy meeting [1] - European Central Bank Governing Council member Rehn stated that President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve's independence could have significant global impacts on financial markets and the real economy [1]