Core Insights - The article highlights the significant rise in gold and silver futures prices due to the investigation of the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - Gold futures for February reached a peak of $4640 per ounce, while March silver futures hit $86 per ounce, both marking historical highs [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The price increase of gold is attributed to its status as a safe-haven asset amid the turmoil surrounding the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions [1] - The investigation into Chairman Powell has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve in setting monetary policy, potentially shaking market confidence [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Context - Chairman Powell disclosed that the U.S. Department of Justice issued a subpoena related to his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee regarding a renovation project [1] - Powell characterized the criminal investigation as a pretext that undermines the Federal Reserve's independence in monetary policy [1]

北京时间周二(1月13日)亚盘时段，美元指数交投于98.918附近，现货白银今日开盘于85.16美元/盎司， 目前交投于84.28美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于21046元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于21046元/千克附 近。今日基本面关注美国将公布12月未季调CPI年率。 周一(1月12日)美元指数下跌0.24%，收报98.896，现货白银收报85.16美元/盎司，上涨6.51%，由于特朗 普政府对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查的不确定性加深，现货黄金一度突破4600美元关口，创下历史 新高，现货白银价格一度站上创纪录的86美元大关：现货黄金上涨1.97%，报4597.94美元/盎司，现货 铂金收涨3.03%，报2337.30美元/盎司；现货钯金收涨1.80%，至1851.00元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 1月12日白银ETF持仓16347.95吨，较前一交易日上涨39.47吨。 1月12日延期补偿费支付方向：Ag(T+D)—空付多。 【要闻速递】 1、白宫称特朗普未指示司法部调查鲍威尔。美媒曝检察官在发起调查时未知会白宫和司法部本部，贝 森特"很不高兴"。 2、美媒：特朗普本周将就美联储主席一职面试贝莱德高 ...

BMO资本市场美国利率策略主管Ian Lyngen在报告中写道："如果用'将美联储独立性的讨论带入未知 领域'来形容这些事件，那都算说轻了。短期内我们仍倾向于美债收益率会走高。" 1月13日，周一，随着特朗普政府升级了对美联储的攻击，加剧了市场对该央行设定利率自主权的担 忧，去年曾一度盛行的"抛售美国"(Sell America)交易正再度席卷市场。 美联储主席鲍威尔罕见地发布视频表示，美国司法部对其的刑事调查威胁本身源于货币政策分歧，所谓 的理由都是"借口"。此言论导致美元、美国国债及美股期货同步下挫。尽管跌幅整体相对有限，但美联 储独立性这一敏感议题及其对美国市场的影响再度成为了新年伊始投资者热议焦点。 "任何引发对美联储独立性质疑的进展，都会增加美国货币政策的不确定性，"管理着超过6000亿美元资 产的Allspring Global Investments投资组合经理Gary Tan表示。"这可能会加强业内现有的减持美元趋 势，并增加对黄金等传统避险工具的兴趣。" 鲍威尔当地时间周日晚间表示，美联储已收到司法部的大陪审团传票，这些传票与其关于美联储总部持 续翻修的国会证词有关。这是美国政府与美联储一系 ...

鉴于地缘政治风险加剧、实物短缺以及美联储独立性再次出现不确定性，花旗集团上调了其对贵金属的 短期展望。包括Max Layton在内的分析师在电邮中写道，未来0-3个月的黄金目标价从每盎司4200美元 上调至每盎司5000美元，白银目标价从每盎司62美元上调至每盎司100美元。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02489 | 集海资源 | 1.240 | 8.77% | | 02099 | 中国黄金国际 | 177.400 | 6.16% | | 01787 | 山东黄金 | 42.720 | 3.34% | | 02899 | 三十四年薪 | 40.460 | 3.00% | | 03330 | 灵宝黄金 | 21.000 | 2.64% | | 02259 | 紫金黄金国际 | 157.000 | 2.61% | | 06693 | 赤峰黄金 | 30.900 | 2.32% | | 01815 | 珠峰黄金 | 2.850 | 2.15% | | 01818 | 招等矿业 | 37.040 | 1.37% | | 00340 | ...

Investors were still trying to come to grips with news of the probe ⁠revealed late on Sunday, a move that drew condemnation from former Fed chiefs and marked a dramatic escalation in the U.S. president's campaign to pressure the central bank into cutting rates faster. The market reaction has been to sell the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, while the unease also prompted some investors to seek safety in gold. However, ‌the selloff was much ‌more measured than the one that followed Trump's sweeping tariffs last ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】根据调查，2025年12月份伊朗原油日均出口 量减少了10万桶，由于伊朗的核计划问题，美国对其实施了制 裁措施，旨在限制其石油出口，伊朗曾经是欧佩克第二大产油 国，1974年该国原油日产量高达600万桶，据调查显示，2025年 9月份该国原油日产量高达近400万桶，但是12月份减少至每日 324万桶；根据调查，由于美国实施了限制石油运输的封锁措 施，2025年12月份委内瑞拉的原油每日供应量月减少了7万桶， 预计这种影响在2026年1月份会进一步加剧。评：地缘风险利好 齐出共同推动了原油价格的上涨。整体上，伊朗局势迅速恶 化，短期或存在部分情绪溢价延续强势。短期低位偏多。 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 姓名：丛燕飞 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015666 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普表示，对鲍威尔接受调查 "一无所知"。鉴于此次调查，两名共和党参议员宣布，将投 票反对任何特朗普提名 ...

来源：环球市场播报 联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）上周日证实，司法部已向联储发出传票，并威胁对他本人提起刑事诉 讼。这一进展显示，川普政府与拥有独立决策权的央行之间的紧张关系正在进一步升级。 受鲍威尔遭刑事调查消息影响，美股周一开盘一度遭遇重挫，道琼斯工业平均指数盘中一度暴跌近500 点。然而，随着交易日的推进，投资者逐渐消化了这一政治冲击。截至美东时间下午2点35分，主要股 指已从盘中低点强势反弹。 标准普尔500指数不仅收复失地，还上涨0.2%并在盘中创下历史新高。纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.5%，而 道指则回升至持平线附近。分析人士指出，沃尔玛（Walmart）及部分科技股的强劲表现是推动股指反 弹的关键力量。 据鲍威尔透露，传票与他去年6月在参议院银行委员会就联储大楼翻新工程所做的证词有关。该项目涉 及两座办公大楼，耗资约25亿美元，川普曾公开批评其"过于铺张"。 上周日在联储官方X账号上发布的视频讲话中，鲍威尔一改往日的克制与低调，他指责川普政府威胁对 他进行刑事指控纯属"借口"，其真实目的是破坏联储在制定利率时的独立性。 "面临刑事指控的威胁，是因为联储根据对公众最有利的评估来设定利率， ...

1月12日，在鲍威尔可能面临刑事调查的消息刺激下，贵金属板块高开高走，黄金与白银价格双双创历 史新高。 "鲍威尔被刑事调查的消息，同时从美联储独立性受损和货币政策路径不确定性两个维度，直接或间接 推动黄金、白银价格再创新高。其中，美联储独立性受损属于永久性的制度层面伤害，将对贵金属价格 形成长期趋势性支撑；而货币政策路径的不确定性，更多作用于短期市场预期，会加剧贵金属价格的阶 段性波动。"南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹说。 "美联储独立性被侵蚀并非孤立事件，而是与美债可持续性问题凸显、美国两党政治分歧加剧等长期历 史遗留问题深度关联，这也决定了其对贵金属价格的支撑具备较强的持续性。"夏莹莹表示，后续需要 观察三个信号：一是新任美联储主席人选及其政策立场表态；二是美国2026年中期选举的进程与选情变 化；三是美联储议息会议的政策声明与点阵图调整。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 "宽松预期升温对贵金属的提振路径清晰可循：一是会压低美债收益率与市场利率，进而降低持有黄金 的机会成本，显著提升黄金的投资需求； ...

Copper - LME copper experienced a high and then a pullback, with domestic refined copper imports remaining unprofitable [3][12] - LME inventory decreased by 1,750 tons to 137,225 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 2,215 tons to 472,140 tons [3][12] - Domestic demand for copper is cautious, with transactions primarily based on immediate needs, despite optimistic sentiment in the precious metals market [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 2.12% to $18,075 per ton, while SHFE nickel fell by 0.04% to 141,520 yuan per ton [4][13] - LME inventory decreased by 228 tons to 284,562 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 814 tons to 39,670 tons [4][13] - Indonesia plans to adjust nickel quotas based on industry demand to support local prices, but specific quota levels for 2026 remain undisclosed [4][13][14] Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2605 settling at 2,821 yuan per ton, down 0.63% [6][15] - SHFE aluminum fluctuated positively, with AL2603 closing at 24,630 yuan per ton, up 0.18% [6][15] - The aluminum market is experiencing inventory accumulation, with expectations of continued production despite recent export tax adjustments [6][15] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon showed a slight increase, with the main contract at 8,755 yuan per ton, up 0.75% [7][16] - Polysilicon prices weakened, with the main contract at 49,995 yuan per ton, down 2.89% [7][16] - Inventory dynamics are shifting, with hidden stock levels increasing and speculative trading sentiment cooling [7][16] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures hit a limit up at 156,060 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising by 12,000 yuan to 152,000 yuan per ton [8][17] - Weekly production increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, with various lithium extraction methods showing growth [8][17] - Despite rising raw material prices potentially suppressing demand, strong market expectations and low downstream inventory suggest a bullish outlook for lithium prices [8][17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that gold prices surged due to rising risk aversion stemming from concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions, with gold futures closing at $4608.8 per ounce, a 2.4% increase [1] - The U.S. Department of Justice's threat to pursue criminal charges regarding Powell's testimony about the $2.5 billion renovation project at the Federal Reserve's Washington headquarters has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, which could undermine the credibility of the U.S. financial system [1] - As a result of these developments, investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven, reflecting a shift in market sentiment away from the dollar, which has seen its new year gains halted [1] Group 2 - The performance of gold-related ETFs was positive, with the Huaxia Gold ETF rising by 1.94%, the Gold Stock ETF increasing by 1.64%, and the Nonferrous Metals ETF gaining 1.36% [1] - Market strategist Marc Chandler noted that the subpoena incident overshadowed geopolitical factors, indicating a significant shift in investor focus towards gold amid growing economic uncertainty [1]