Group 1 - Long-term government bond yields have been on a downward trend, with the 10-year bond yield closing at 2.2727% on April 24, showing a significant rebound from the previous day, but overall remaining below 2.3% since April 2 [1] - The 30-year bond yield also closed at 2.4791% on April 24, reflecting a similar pattern of decline, remaining below 2.5% since March 18 [1] - The decline in long-term bond yields is attributed to increased demand for ultra-long bonds amid expectations of a bull market in bonds, leading to a sustained downward trend in yields [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China indicated that long-term bond yields reflect expectations of long-term economic growth and inflation, but are also influenced by supply and demand factors [2] - Economic fundamentals remain strong, with the GDP for the first quarter reported at 29.6299 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, exceeding market expectations [2] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds is expected to alleviate the "asset shortage" situation, potentially leading to a rebound in long-term bond yields [2] Group 3 - The Ministry of Finance plans to coordinate the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds based on project allocation and market demand, ensuring a reasonable match between bond terms and project timelines [3] - Approximately 38,000 special bond projects have been approved for 2024, with a demand of around 5.9 trillion yuan, laying a solid foundation for the issuance of 3.9 trillion yuan in special bonds this year [3] - The anticipated increase in special bond supply and the potential issuance of ultra-long special government bonds may lead to adjustments in the supply-demand dynamics of the bond market [3]

4月最后几个交易日债市大幅波动，"伤及"银行理财投资者。 "购买的低风险银行理财产品，配置资产大多是存款和债券。最近债市回调，理财收益也跟着跌了，手 头两只产品近一周的日收益基本都是负的。"日收益再现负值，不禁让投资者小吴担忧，债市回调背景 下银行理财是否还值得投？ 小吴是当下众多银行理财投资者的"缩影"。事实上，投资者们的担忧不无道理。作为银行理财产品的重 要投资标的，债券类资产出现波动无疑会给银行理财产品收益带来影响。 然而，多位业内人士在接受记者采访时表示，此轮债市调整符合预期，预计不会重演2022年"破净潮"现 象。原因在于，理财产品主要持仓中短端债券资产，在短久期特性和稳估值资产的加持下，产品净值整 体波动幅度可控。此外，市场学习效应明显，行业资产抗压性有所提升，应对债市调整的经验和能力也 更为充足。 债市波动来袭 "五一假期之前的数个交易日，债市出现大幅调整。急跌看似是收益率持续创新低之后，集中止盈所 致，背后蕴含着多方面原因。"国投证券首席固定收益分析师尹睿哲说。 债市波动牵动着银行理财投资者的神经。"4月底以来，银行理财产品净值就在跌。五一期间，查看收益 情况，发现4月24日以来的七天里有三天 ...

近期，超长期特别国债有序发行，同时，地方政府债券发行进度加快。专家认为，新发特别国债均为20 年期及以上的超长期债券，为市场提供了安全且收益相对更高的资产，政府债券加快供应有助于缓解现 阶段债市面临的"资产荒"压力。 政府债发行加快 5月29日，第二只超长期特别国债上市交易，在银行间市场和交易所市场上成交均较活跃，受到投资者 关注。 行情数据显示，银行间市场方面，截至记者发稿时，"24特别国债02"成交笔数达557笔，最新成交在 2.46%，低于2.49%的票面利率3个基点；交易所市场方面，截至5月29日收盘，在上交所上市的"24特国 02"上涨0.59%，报100.59元；在深交所上市的"特国2402"上涨0.07%，报100.07元。 在民生银行首席经济学家温彬看来，未来随着超长期特别国债和地方债的发行，"资产荒"的情况会有缓 解，前期因机构欠配导致的利率过度下行或面临修复。 "目前，在实体融资需求持续偏弱、城投平台融资收缩的背景下，金融机构持续面临'资产荒'局面。"陈 健恒分析，一方面，金融机构对于高息资产的需求旺盛，足以消化政府债券供给增量，或不用担心特别 国债带来的供给冲击。另一方面，由于今年新发特 ...

有债市交易员表示，持续释放的强监管信号，引导收益率近日连续上行，目前10年期和30年期国债收益 率的阶段性底部基本确定，市场继续关注人民银行等管理部门的动态。 流动性方面，Wind数据显示，上周央行公开市场净回笼7597.6亿元，净回笼量为3月初以来单周新高。 截至8月9日收盘，DR001（银行间市场存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率）加权平均利率上行约10基点报 1.79%。 8月9日，债券市场继续下跌，长债价格跌幅更大。Wind数据显示，截至当日收盘，30年期国债期货主 力合约跌0.21%，10年期国债期货主力合约跌0.20%，5年期、2年期国债期货主力合约分别跌0.11%、 0.04%。 银行间主要利率债收益率全线上行。截至8月9日收盘，30年期国债活跃券"230023"收益率上行2.5基点 成交在2.38%，10年期国债活跃券"240004"收益率上行3基点成交在2.20%，10年期国债"240011"收益率 上行2.5基点成交在2.20%，备受关注的7年期国债"240013"收益率上行5.4基点成交在2.07%。 在市场人士看来，最近债市转为连续下跌，与相关部门的监管态度和出台举措不无关系。 交易商协会8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous influx of funds into the bond market has led to a sustained decline in long-term government bond yields in China, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping from 2.5601% at the beginning of the year to 2.1547% by August 23, indicating a significant downward trend [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The 10-year government bond yield has been fluctuating within a range of 2.1% to 2.3% since early August, with a low of 2.1277% on August 2 and a peak of 2.2508% on August 12, reflecting a state of "volume contraction and price stability" [1]. - The phenomenon of "asset shortage" in the financial market has contributed to the decline in yields, as deposit rates continue to decrease and the supply of interest-bearing bonds is insufficient, leading to a scarcity of attractive investment targets [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has expressed concern over long-term yields and has been conducting flexible open market operations to address potential financial risks, particularly regarding the mismatch of duration and interest rate risks held by non-bank entities [2]. - The PBOC's second-quarter monetary policy report indicated that the 10-year government bond yield had reached a 20-year low, deviating significantly from reasonable central levels, which has raised concerns about accumulating financial risks [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern, with a low probability of a unilateral decline in government bond yields, as the market awaits changes in supply and demand dynamics [3]. - In the short term, increased volatility in the bond market is anticipated, but a balanced supply-demand structure is expected to emerge in the long term, supported by steady economic recovery and effective policy implementation [3].

"就目前来看，本轮降准降息落地后，理财产品资产端利率在短期内未出现明显下降，反而有所回 升。实际上，今年市场上资产供给有所增加，理财公司'资产荒'的现象并未显著加剧，只能说是高收益 资产遭遇了激烈拼抢。"某股份行理财公司投研业务负责人告诉记者。 从短期来看，央行降准降息政策对理财产品资产端收益率的影响相对有限，近期长债利率震荡回 升，同业存单利率有所上行。但从长期来看，理财产品底层资产收益率下行趋势明确，理财公司的"资 产荒"局面难以改变。 在资产配置方面，不少理财公司投研人士表示，将优先布局同业存单、短期信用债等短债资产，以 锁定当前高利率。此外，在低利率环境下，为增厚收益，理财公司将优化投资组合，通过增加多元资产 配置，分散投资于不同的资产类别，降低对单一资产的依赖，以平衡风险和收益。 资产端收益率影响有限 从短期来看，央行降准降息政策对理财产品资产端收益率影响有限，上周存款降息、LPR下调等操 作落地，长债利率震荡回升。 "从2023年以来存款利率下降后的债券走势来看，1年期和10年期国债收益率的表现不一，存款降息 并不一定会带来债券收益率快速下行，更多需要考虑当时的基本面、政策环境和交易情绪。债券收益 ...

Group 1 - The convertible bond market has reached a ten-year high, with the China Convertible Bond Index hitting 469.56 points and a year-to-date increase of 12.74% [2] - More than ten convertible bond funds have seen net value growth rates exceeding 15% this year, with the top performer, Southern Changyuan Convertible Bond A, achieving 24.78% [2][3] - The strong performance of convertible bonds is attributed to a supply-demand imbalance and a robust equity market, making them an attractive investment option due to their debt protection and equity-like characteristics [1][2] Group 2 - The current valuation of convertible bonds is considered to be at a relatively high level within a 3-4 year range, with potential opportunities for accumulation if valuations decline [3] - The convertible bond market is expected to experience three phases: initial price recovery, balanced valuation expansion, and high volatility/high return phase [3] - The market is currently characterized by limited downward space, with a focus on sectors like photovoltaic and pig farming for risk-controlled investments [4]

8月6日，A股三大指数录得三连涨，全市场超3300股上涨。在市场一片大好中，有两个信号被格外关 注：一是融资余额时隔10年再度突破2万亿元；二是农业银行（601288.SH）首次登顶A股市值之最，工 商银行（601398.SH）"让位"。 截至当日收盘，农业银行A股总市值为2.11万亿元，超过工商银行的2.09万亿元，这在历史上是首次。 目前，A股市值前三排位是：农业银行、工商银行、贵州茅台（600519.SH）；今年年初这一排位是： 贵州茅台、工商银行、农业银行。但从总市值来看，工商银行仍以2.57万亿元居首，农业银行、建设银 行分别以2.26万亿元、1.94万亿元位居第二位、第三位。 有市场人士提示，农业银行年内涨势稳定且持续，在国有大行中表现亮眼。不过，考虑到各家大行上市 总股本在A股和H股的分布比例差异较大，单纯比较A股市值的参考意义有限。Wind数据显示，目前国 有大行中A股占总股本比例最高的为农业银行（约91%），最低的为建设银行（约为8%），后者因为 股本大头在港交所，A股市值低于部分股份行甚至城商行。 截至7日13:45，农业银行A股涨1.51%，工商银行A股涨0.90%，农业银行A股市值仍然 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in A-share bank stocks is attributed to the attractive and stable dividends amidst an "asset shortage" environment, with many stocks becoming more cost-effective after a period of correction [3][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 5, the A-share market saw a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.96%, surpassing 3600 points, and the China Securities Bank Index rising by 1.6% to 8087.4 points [5]. - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) reached a new high, closing at 6.54 yuan per share, while several other banks also saw significant gains, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank leading with a 4.72% increase [5][6]. - From July 11 to the end of July, the China Securities Bank Index fell by 7.27%, while ABC was the only bank stock to rise during this period, increasing by 1.95% [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Preliminary reports indicate that three out of five regional banks that disclosed their half-year results achieved double-digit growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [3][12]. - The median dividend yield for A-share bank stocks remains around 4%, with nearly 90% of stocks yielding over 3% [11]. Group 3: Regulatory Changes and Impact - Starting August 8, new regulations will impose a value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds, which may enhance the relative attractiveness of bank stocks compared to bonds [10][11]. - The new tax regulations are expected to create an incremental tax burden for institutional investors, with projected additional tax revenues of approximately 321 billion yuan, 648 billion yuan, and 988 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [10]. Group 4: Institutional Investment Trends - Insurance funds have shown a strong interest in increasing their holdings in bank stocks, with over 20 instances of shareholding increases this year, surpassing the total for the previous year [11][12]. - The implementation of new accounting standards for the insurance industry has led to a significant increase in bank stock purchases, as these stocks are often priced below their net asset value [13].

不过，进入二季度，中小行做债热情突然转"冷"。银行间同业拆借中心数据显示，来到4、5月份，中小行交易热 情连续两个月下降，城农商行现券合计成交金额分别环比下滑8.6%、7.9%。特别是在5月份，城农商行现券合计 成交笔数出现大幅下降，环比减少9.5%。 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者李明会 北京报道 "资产荒"困局之下，债市成为中小行资产配置的主战场。 近日，《华夏时报》记者梳理今年以来银行间同业拆借中心的现券买卖月报数据发现，今年4月、5月，城农商行 现券成交金额连续两个月环比下滑；不过，在经历两个月的短暂调整后，城农商行加大现券交易力度，6 月、7 月 现券成交金额分别环比增长13.5%、5.7%。其中，7月份现券成交金额达17.24万亿元，再次突破17万亿元大关，创 年内新高。 同时，央行数据显示，今年以来，中资中小银行债券投资金额逐月增加，截至今年6月末，相关投资金额达46.44 万亿元。 "城农商行现券交易频繁的背后驱动因素主要是有效贷款需求不足、信贷投放缩量、大行下沉挤压、跨区展业受限 等。"东方金诚金融业务部高级副总监鲁金飞在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，当前市场环境下，利率债 ...