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和讯投顾史月波:老牌金融,核心强势究竟在哪
He Xun Wang· 2025-06-24 06:40
Group 1 - The market showed strong performance in the first 45 minutes, followed by a period of consolidation, with the banking sector leading the adjustment [1] - The banking sector's adjustment is notable as it declined quietly during the market's downturn and then gradually returned to stability, indicating its key role in market control [1] - Insurance is viewed as a better investment option compared to banks, as it can gradually rise without the same level of risk, highlighting its importance in the financial sector [1] Group 2 - The financial sector remains a pillar of the market, encompassing traditional finance (banks, insurance, brokers) and fintech, with significant developments in digital currency and financial innovation [2] - The promotion of digital RMB and the exploration of stablecoins in Hong Kong aim to enhance the internationalization of the RMB and reduce reliance on the USD [2] - The restructuring and consolidation within the financial sector, including banks and brokers, are intended to strengthen their positions against the USD system, with strong fundamentals supporting the financial sector's performance [2] Group 3 - Recent news regarding tax digitalization and the government's stance on platform economy taxation has drawn attention to the importance of key management in tax control systems [3] - The performance of stocks in the digital tax and innovation sector has been mixed, with some showing good performance while others experienced slight declines [3]
浙商证券廖博解读八项重磅金融举措:不仅应对短期挑战,更是长期战略部署
中经记者 何莎莎 北京报道 在2025年陆家嘴论坛上,中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布八项重磅金融举措,从设立银行间市场交易报告 库到推进人民币外汇期货交易,一系列政策组合拳引发市场高度关注。如何准确认识这些政策背后的深 层逻辑以及对未来的影响,《中国经营报》触角"零观财经"节目与浙商证券研究所宏观联席首席分析师 廖博,展开了深度对话。 "在外部环境存在不确定性的大背景下,陆家嘴论坛在金融领域从多个视角给予了决策层的指引,既着 眼于当下金融市场稳定,更致力于中长期金融体系改革与国际竞争力提升。"廖博指出,"'一行一局一 会'主要领导都提供了相应的增量政策信息,在这些政策组合拳的综合施策之下,无论是金融市场层 面,还是基本面层面,都将迎来更加积极的成果。" 筑牢金融防线 打开金融开放新空间 在廖博看来,八项举措出台的宏观背景呈现"双主线"特征:一方面,美国对华加征关税的90天缓冲期临 近结束,中东地缘政治风险升级,外部环境不确定性显著上升;另一方面,国内经济正处于结构转型关 键期,新质生产力培育与传统动能修复需要金融政策精准发力。"本质上,八项措施是为未来可能出现 的外部冲击筑牢了金融防线,同时通过制度创新打开金融开 ...
时报论坛丨人民币国际化迎来重大突破
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 03:31
■本报评论员 随着中国经济高质量发展和金融高水平开放,人民币国际化迎来重大突破。 6月22日,中国人民银行与香港金管局联合推出的快速支付系统互联互通合作(以下简称"跨境支付通")正式上线,首批参与机构包括工行、中行、汇 丰、恒生等,标志着内地与香港快速支付系统已实现互联互通,今后两地居民可实时办理跨境汇款。 无独有偶,在日前举行的2025陆家嘴论坛上,中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布了八项金融开放举措,其中包括将设立数字人民币国际运营中心,推进数字人 民币的国际化运营与金融市场业务发展。 人民币国际化趋势加速,具有标志性意义的一件事是:6月18日,人民币跨境支付系统(CIPS)首次成功接入非洲、中东、中亚地区及新加坡离岸人民币 中心的核心外资银行,全球服务网络覆盖实现历史性跨越。 图片来源/新华社 近年来,人民币国际化进程持续深化,在全球范围内的吸引力和影响力逐步增强。人民币已成为全球第二大贸易融资货币;按全口径计算,人民币已成为 全球第三大支付货币;在国际货币基金组织(IMF)特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子中的权重位列全球第三。80多个境外央行或货币当局将人民币纳入外汇 储备。2024年,人民币跨境收付金额约64万 ...
摩根士丹利:中国思考-人民币与稳定币,谁稳定谁?
摩根· 2025-06-24 02:28
June 20, 2025 10:42 AM GMT 中国思考 | Asia Pacific 人民币与稳定币,谁稳定谁? 北京担忧,美国稳定币立法或将巩固美元霸主地位。因此愿 探索破局,先以香港试点,最终期冀强化人民币跨境支付。 然而,代币化仅是"术",真要推动人民币国际 化,"道"乃根源,打破通缩、监管透明、资本流动的三个 硬骨头改革不可或缺。 为什么中国开始关注稳定币?一个重要的转折点是,美国参议院近期通过了稳定 币(GENIUS)法案,要求美元稳定币的发行需有百分百储备资产支撑。 若该法案 之后在众议院通过,其实质上意味着目前占据99%市场份额的美元稳定币将正式 成为美金代币。其可被接入国际支付系统,并大幅推升市场对美国国债的需求。 央行的转变⸺从拒绝到接纳:出于对金融风险的担忧,央行从2021年9月开始就 全面了禁止境内虚拟货币的交易与结算。 而本周潘行长在陆家嘴论坛的讲话标志 着央行对虚拟货币态度的转变: 他提出, 国际货币体系应向多极化发展, 并强调 跨境支付体系的多元化发展。潘行长特别提到, 传统跨境支付体系面临的问题逐 渐凸显,包括低效、易受地缘政治影响等。 而在区块链和分布式账本等新兴技术 ...
特朗普再对美联储发飙,中国继续脱钩,又抛82亿,开辟第二战场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 01:27
美国经济最近有点绷不住了。GDP增速被美联储下调到1.4%,通胀预期却飙到3%,失业率还在往上爬。特朗普一看这数据,直接破防,对着美联储主席鲍 威尔就是一顿输出:"愚蠢!不如我自己去干!" 这话从年初一直说到现在,还是老样子。美联储今年第四次按兵不动,利率卡在4.25%-4.5%,特朗普急得跳脚,恨不得自己上手降息250个基点。可惜美联 储不是他家的,不是他发条帖子就能改政策的。 除了金融战,中国手里还有一张王牌,就是稀土。出口管制让美国汽车和军工企业急得跳脚,通用、福特只能拿到临时许可,供应链随时可能断供。中国控 制全球90%的稀土加工,这一招比关税狠多了。美国想用乙烷出口卡中国脖子,结果发现中国早就布局,进口依赖度从80%降到35%。 特朗普这么急,是因为他的关税政策玩脱了。4月他突然对中国商品加税到125%,结果中国反手就抛美债,全球市场跟着抖三抖。美国企业叫苦连天,公司 利润预期直接下调,零售数据跌得妈都不认。特朗普甩锅技能点满,把经济疲软的锅全扣在美联储头上。他说降息能省6000亿利息支出,但问题是,美债现 在没人要了,收益率狂飙,30年期都破5%了,财政部发新债的成本高得吓人。 中国这边也没闲着。 ...
外资银行眼中的人民币国际化新征途:加速向全球贸易融资货币、储备货币“进阶”
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-06-24 01:13
Core Viewpoint - The international enthusiasm for the use of the Renminbi (RMB) has significantly increased following the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the United States, with a notable rise in demand for RMB in cross-border investments and trade financing [2][3][4]. Group 1: RMB in Cross-Border Trade and Investment - After the U.S. introduced "reciprocal tariffs," more Chinese enterprises are willing to use RMB for overseas direct investment (ODI), leading to increased demand for RMB in cross-border investments [3]. - The RMB is evolving from a popular trade settlement currency to a multi-functional role, including trade financing and reserve currency [4][6]. - As of the end of 2024, RMB is projected to become the third-largest trade financing currency globally, with cross-border payment amounts reaching 64.1 trillion yuan, a 23% increase year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Central Bank and Reserve Currency Trends - More emerging market central banks are incorporating RMB into their foreign exchange reserves, reflecting a trend towards diversification away from the U.S. dollar [4][9]. - Currently, RMB accounts for less than 3% of global foreign exchange reserves, indicating significant potential for growth in this area [9]. Group 3: RMB Liquidity and Financing - The liquidity of RMB in overseas markets is increasing, which is encouraging foreign enterprises to use RMB for trade financing, thereby reducing their financing costs [8][11]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has introduced measures to support RMB trade financing liquidity, which will further meet the financing needs of foreign enterprises [7][8]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - The internationalization of RMB faces challenges in meeting the diverse needs of foreign enterprises for RMB settlement, investment, and reserve management [11][12]. - Enhancing RMB liquidity in overseas markets is crucial for encouraging foreign institutions to hold RMB assets, which requires the development of a diverse range of RMB financial products [12].
西方6个月打垮人民币阴谋破产,中国动真格了,货币战争转守为攻
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 01:00
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing currency battle between the Chinese yuan and the US dollar, emphasizing China's strategic shift from defense to offense in this "invisible war" [1] - Predictions made at the end of last year suggested that the yuan would depreciate significantly due to potential trade conflicts under Trump's administration, but these predictions have not materialized as the yuan has remained stable and even started to recover [1][3] - The article discusses two significant waves of short-selling actions by Western capital against the yuan, with the first wave occurring in January when the yuan fell to 7.36, and the second wave in April when it dropped below 7.37, both times the People's Bank of China intervened to stabilize the currency [3][4] Group 2 - The article notes that the US dollar has faced challenges, including a reluctance from the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, leading to a decline in the dollar index and a sell-off of US Treasury bonds [6] - The June Lujiazui Forum marked a turning point, where the People's Bank of China announced eight major financial opening measures, including the establishment of a digital yuan international operation center, indicating a serious commitment to internationalizing the yuan [6][8] - The introduction of the digital yuan aims to enhance payment convenience and cross-border circulation efficiency, addressing previous limitations and positioning the yuan as a competitive currency in international settlements [8]
以开放促合作 陆家嘴论坛释放金融开放强信号
Group 1 - The core message of the news is the strong commitment of China to financial openness and reform, highlighted by multiple financial policies announced at the Lujiazui Forum [1][2] - Financial regulatory authorities emphasize that foreign investment has significantly improved corporate governance and operational management in Chinese banks, with 80% of national banks introducing foreign strategic investors [1][2] - The total investment of Oaktree Capital in Greater China has surpassed 47 billion RMB since entering the market in the 1990s, showcasing the benefits of China's financial openness [1][2] Group 2 - Eight new financial opening measures were announced, including offshore trade finance services and support for foreign institutions in various financial sectors, indicating China's determination for financial reform [2][5] - The importance of the Chinese market is underscored by foreign financial executives, noting that three-quarters of multinational companies investing in China have partnerships with local firms [2][3] - The introduction of new rules for futures and derivatives is seen as a milestone for China's position as a leading global financial center [3][4] Group 3 - The establishment of the Shanghai-London Stock Connect in 2019 has facilitated mutual market access, enhancing the internationalization of China's capital markets [4][5] - The total assets of foreign banks and insurance institutions in China exceed 7 trillion RMB, with foreign insurance companies' market share increasing from 4% in 2013 to 9% currently [5][6] - The Chinese financial market is expected to expand significantly, driven by rising consumer demand and opportunities in technology and green finance [5][6] Group 4 - The Lujiazui Forum serves as a significant indicator of China's financial reform and global financial governance, promoting a cooperative and open economic environment [6][7] - The People's Bank of China plans to enhance the foreign exchange management system to facilitate cross-border investment and support the internationalization of the RMB [7][8] - As of May 31, the cumulative approved quota for Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors (QDII) reached approximately 167.79 billion USD, with 189 institutions granted investment quotas [8]
大调整!货币支付:欧元上涨至23.5%,人民币跌破3%,怎么回事?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 00:24
Core Insights - The share of Renminbi (RMB) in global payment markets has significantly dropped to 2.89%, falling below the 3% mark and ranking sixth globally, overtaken by the Canadian dollar [1][2] - The decline in RMB's payment share is attributed to various factors, including market fluctuations and the diversification of RMB settlement channels, rather than solely the impact of trade tensions [2][7] Payment Share Overview - As of May 2024, the US dollar remains dominant with a 48.46% share, followed by the euro at 23.5%, which has increased by 1.4 percentage points [1] - The British pound holds a 7.1% share, while the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar account for 3.7% and 3.11% respectively, showing little change from previous months [1] RMB Payment Trends - RMB payment share fluctuated throughout 2024, peaking at 4.74% in July before declining to 2.9% in October, indicating normal monthly volatility rather than a definitive setback in internationalization [2][7] - The RMB's previous rise to the fourth largest payment currency was short-lived, with its share dropping significantly in recent months [2] CIPS and Internationalization Efforts - The China International Payment System (CIPS) is increasingly facilitating RMB settlements, with 180 direct participants and over 1,500 indirect participants across more than 180 countries [5] - CIPS processed 175 trillion RMB in cross-border payments in 2024, marking a 43% year-on-year increase, and has expanded its reach by adding new overseas financial institutions [5] Future Outlook - Despite the challenges faced by RMB internationalization, including significant gaps compared to the US dollar and euro, the potential for growth remains strong [7] - The rise of CIPS and the expansion of RMB swap agreements are seen as key drivers for the future of RMB internationalization [7]
高层密集调研,聚焦哪些问题?——政策周观察第35期
一瑜中的· 2025-06-23 13:55
Group 1 - The article highlights the recent focus of the Chinese government on economic recovery through infrastructure, trade, and innovation, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development in major economic provinces like Jiangsu [2][11][12] - The government is actively promoting the "old for new" consumption policy to stimulate demand and is closely monitoring the performance of foreign trade and international market expansion [2][3] - There is a strong emphasis on technological innovation and regulatory measures in the platform economy, with specific attention to the logistics sector and the need for improved oversight to combat unfair practices [3][13] Group 2 - The article discusses the significant outcomes from the Lujiazui Forum, including the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and the promotion of offshore financial services in Shanghai [5][15] - Key financial reforms are being introduced, such as the creation of a new tier in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the launch of new financial products to support technology companies [5][18][19] - The government is committed to enhancing the international financial center status of Shanghai, with plans to attract more financial institutions and improve the regulatory framework [20][21]