1. 大家好，欢迎阅读本期的国际观察。今天，小锐将关注欧洲多个国家高调组建志愿联盟并派遣军队支 持乌克兰的这一重大变化。 2. 曾几何时，欧洲各国在考虑是否提供5000顶防弹头盔时，经过了近半个 月的深思熟虑，保持着谨慎的姿态。可是，现在，多个国家却主动集结军队，直面俄罗斯，这种迅速转 变的态度，简直是地缘政治格局中的一场惊天逆转。 3. 表面上看，这些举动是对俄乌战争局势的军事回应，但实质上，它早已超越了战争本身，正在引发全 球权力结构的深刻变化。 4. 在这种背景下，人民币的国际化是否会迎来前所未有的契机？为何欧洲突 然采取如此强硬的姿态与俄罗斯对抗？全球资本流动将如何改变我们日常生活的格局？这些问题都值得 我们深入探讨。 5. 多国派兵的背后，可能成为新一轮金融危机的导火索。 6. 要想理解欧洲此次军事介入的深层动机， 我们必须掌握一个基本的规律：资本天生趋向安全，避开风险。它们会流向那些安全、可预见、制度稳 定的区域。 17. 对美国来说，这是控制战略成本；但对欧洲而言，这无异于一场系统性灾难的开端。 18. 过去两 年，欧盟及其成员国已经向乌克兰提供了接近2000亿美元的援助、贷款和财政担保，然而， ...

Core Insights - Chinese banks are expanding their overseas presence, establishing a comprehensive service network that covers major financial centers globally and key regions along the Belt and Road Initiative [1][4] - The internationalization strategy of Chinese banks has shifted from focusing primarily on traditional markets in Europe and the US to emerging markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [1][9] Group 1: Overseas Expansion Strategies - Chinese banks utilize three main forms for overseas expansion: representative offices, branches, and subsidiaries, with larger banks often establishing branches or subsidiaries in mature markets and starting with representative offices in emerging markets [2][4] - The distribution of overseas institutions varies among banks, with a notable focus on new emerging markets and developing countries [2][4] Group 2: Performance of Major Banks - Bank of China leads in global presence with 539 overseas branches in 64 countries, including 45 countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, and has a strong focus on enhancing its competitive edge in Southeast Asia [4][12] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has 413 overseas institutions in 49 countries, with a significant presence in 30 Belt and Road countries, showcasing a flexible internationalization strategy [4][12] - Agricultural Bank of China has established 13 branches and 4 representative offices, focusing on supporting high-quality Belt and Road initiatives [4][12] Group 3: Revenue Growth and Performance Metrics - In the first half of 2025, Bank of China reported overseas revenue of 783.13 billion yuan, a 14.4% increase from the previous year, with overseas revenue accounting for 23.77% of total revenue [11][12] - Agricultural Bank of China achieved a 21.03% increase in overseas revenue, while Construction Bank's overseas revenue grew by 40.92%, indicating strong expansion momentum [12][14] - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's overseas revenue surged by 119.37%, marking a significant growth and highlighting the effectiveness of its international strategy [14] Group 4: Challenges and Market Dynamics - Chinese banks face regulatory challenges in overseas markets, including compliance with both domestic and foreign regulations, which can lead to significant penalties [15][19] - The demand from Chinese enterprises for overseas financial services is evolving, with a shift towards more complex needs such as global treasury management and cross-border mergers and acquisitions [16][17] - Small and medium-sized enterprises are becoming a key growth driver for overseas financial services, emphasizing the need for lower financing thresholds and cost-effective payment solutions [16][17] Group 5: Future Directions and Strategic Focus - The future competitiveness of Chinese banks in international markets will depend on enhancing global collaboration, improving localization capabilities, and strengthening compliance risk management [18][19] - Emphasis on financial technology innovation and the development of cross-border digital infrastructure will be crucial for expanding their international footprint [19]

Core Insights - Chinese banks are expanding their overseas presence, establishing a comprehensive service network that covers major financial centers globally and key regions along the Belt and Road Initiative [1][2] - The internationalization strategy of Chinese banks has shifted from traditional markets in Europe and the US to emerging markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [1][2] Group 1: Global Expansion Strategy - Chinese banks are utilizing representative offices, branches, and subsidiaries for overseas expansion, with larger banks often establishing branches in mature markets and starting with representative offices in emerging markets [2] - The distribution of overseas institutions shows that major state-owned banks are leading the expansion, with a focus on both traditional and emerging markets [2][4] Group 2: Performance Metrics - As of June 2025, Bank of China leads with 539 overseas branches in 64 countries, including 45 Belt and Road countries, showcasing its extensive global network [4] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China follows with 413 overseas institutions in 49 countries, including 250 in Belt and Road countries, demonstrating a flexible international strategy [4] - Agricultural Bank of China has established 13 branches and 4 representative offices, focusing on supporting high-quality Belt and Road initiatives [4] Group 3: Revenue Growth and Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, Bank of China reported overseas revenue of 783.13 billion yuan, a 14.4% increase from the previous year, with overseas revenue accounting for 23.77% of total revenue [12] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's overseas revenue was 562.52 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 1.88%, while Agricultural Bank of China experienced a 21.03% increase [12][11] - The growth of overseas revenue among joint-stock banks, such as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, which saw a 119.37% increase, highlights the varying performance across banks [14] Group 4: Challenges and Future Directions - Chinese banks face regulatory challenges in overseas markets, including compliance with both domestic and foreign regulations, which can lead to significant penalties [15] - The demand for diversified financial services is evolving, with a shift from traditional trade financing to more complex needs such as global treasury management and cross-border mergers [16] - Future competitiveness will depend on enhancing global collaboration, local operational capabilities, compliance risk management, and financial technology innovation [18][19]

Group 1 - The U.S. Navy's seizure of the Captain oil tanker, along with 1.1 million barrels of oil, marks the first instance of U.S. military action against a foreign oil tanker, indicating a significant escalation in U.S. intervention in the region [1] - The U.S. has imposed severe economic sanctions on Venezuela, particularly targeting its oil exports, which account for over 60% of the country's GDP, aiming to destabilize the Maduro regime and create opportunities for a pro-U.S. government [3][5] - The U.S. strategy against Venezuela also serves to undermine China's energy security, as Venezuela has been a key supplier of oil to China, with 85% of its total exports going to China, and a growing proportion of transactions being settled in renminbi [7][9] Group 2 - The increasing use of renminbi in oil transactions between China and Venezuela, reaching 60% this year, poses a challenge to the U.S.-dominated petrodollar system, making U.S. actions against Venezuela a direct threat to China's energy interests [9] - In response to U.S. actions, China has taken a firm stance, condemning the seizures as violations of international law and suspending three energy cooperation negotiations with the U.S., while also pursuing legal action for the return of seized vessels [9] - China's military capabilities have evolved since the 1993 incident with the Galaxy, allowing for a more robust response to U.S. provocations, including potential military deterrence and economic sanctions [9]

Core Insights - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate has surpassed the 7.00 mark for the first time since September 2024, marking the end of a three-year depreciation cycle and reflecting significant changes in the global economic landscape and domestic fundamentals [2] - The RMB has appreciated over 12% against the USD since its low point in 2024, making it one of the strongest currencies globally [2] Group 1: Key Drivers of RMB Appreciation - **Weakening USD**: The Federal Reserve's rate cuts have led to a decline in the USD index, which fell below 98, creating a favorable environment for non-USD currencies [2] - **Corporate Behavior**: A surge in foreign exchange settlements at year-end, with December 2025 seeing a record settlement volume exceeding $200 billion, driven by strong export performance [2][3] - **Policy Support**: The central bank's adjustments to the exchange rate and cross-border capital management have helped stabilize the RMB, with a reduction in depreciation days to 38% [3] Group 2: Economic Resilience and Structural Changes - **Industrial Upgrades**: The manufacturing sector's value added has reached 32% of the global total, with significant growth in exports of new energy vehicles and 5G equipment [4] - **Capital Market Opening**: The expansion of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and increased foreign investment in Chinese bonds have attracted over 800 billion yuan in foreign capital [4] - **Geopolitical Financial Dynamics**: The expansion of the digital RMB's cross-border payment trials and the establishment of currency settlement channels with countries like Russia and Iran indicate a strategic shift in international finance [5][6] Group 3: Implications for Businesses and Individuals - **Corporate Strategies**: Exporters are encouraged to utilize foreign exchange options to hedge against currency risks, while importers are increasing the use of RMB for cross-border transactions [8][9] - **Personal Finance**: Individuals are advised to adopt strategies such as phased currency purchases to manage costs and to consider investments in gold ETFs and Hong Kong tech stocks [10][11] - **Policy Considerations**: The need for a balanced approach to currency flexibility and cross-border regulatory cooperation is emphasized to support stability in the financial system [12][13] Group 4: Global Perspective on RMB Internationalization - **Trade Settlement**: The proportion of trade settlements in RMB with ASEAN countries has risen to 35%, positioning the RMB as a dominant regional currency [14] - **Debt Valuation**: RMB-denominated bonds in the Belt and Road Initiative have reached a historic high of 41% [14] - **Reserve Currency Status**: Countries like Pakistan and Belarus have included RMB in their foreign exchange reserves, with a share exceeding 10% [14]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the RMB exchange rate exhibited a "weak first, strong later, and narrowing fluctuations" trajectory, with the offshore RMB successfully breaking the 7 key level by year-end, laying a strong foundation for 2026 [2][3] Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The RMB/USD exchange rate can be divided into three phases: a weak phase from early January to early April, a rapid appreciation phase from early April to early July, and a moderate appreciation phase from July to year-end. The year started with an exchange rate of 7.27, hitting a low of 7.42879 in April, a depreciation of over 2.18% [3] - From April to July, the RMB appreciated over 2.58%, rising from around 7.35 to 7.16 due to clearer Fed rate cuts and improved US-China trade negotiations [3] - By December 24, the offshore RMB surpassed 7.01, resulting in an overall appreciation of over 4% for the year, while the onshore RMB depreciated by 3.83% [3] Exchange Rate Characteristics - In 2025, the RMB showed a "strong against the USD, weak against a basket of currencies" characteristic, with the CFETS RMB index down 4.1% and the RMB depreciating against the euro by 8.5% and the Mexican peso by 10.5% [4] - The market structure improved, with a shift from a deficit of $39.243 billion in January to a surplus of $51.758 billion by September, indicating a positive cycle of expectations, capital inflow, and exchange rate appreciation [4] Core Driving Logic - The RMB's appreciation in 2025 was driven by both external and internal factors, with the Fed's monetary policy shift being the most critical variable. Since September 2025, the Fed has cut rates by 0.75 percentage points, contributing to a structural weakening of the USD [5] - Internally, China's economic resilience, capital inflows, and policy support formed a threefold force, with GDP growth exceeding expectations and a stable trade surplus providing a solid foundation for the RMB [6] Seasonal Factors - Seasonal factors, particularly pre-Spring Festival capital settlement behaviors, significantly contributed to the RMB's year-end appreciation, with December typically seeing the highest levels of bank settlement surplus [7] 2026 Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a "moderate appreciation" trend in 2026, with a predicted range of 6.7 to 7.2 against the USD. Various institutions forecast the year-end exchange rate to be between 6.7 and 7.0 [8][9] - Three potential scenarios for 2026 include a baseline scenario of gradual appreciation, an optimistic scenario with significant appreciation due to strong domestic recovery, and a pessimistic scenario where the RMB faces downward pressure due to economic challenges [9] Impact on Economy and Capital Markets - The anticipated RMB appreciation will lower import costs and improve corporate profitability, particularly benefiting industries reliant on imports [11] - Conversely, export-oriented companies may face profit pressures due to exchange rate fluctuations, necessitating effective risk management strategies [11] - The RMB's appreciation is expected to attract foreign capital, with historical data showing a positive correlation between exchange rate increases and foreign investment inflows [12] Policy Implications - The central bank's approach will balance "stabilizing the exchange rate" and "promoting openness," emphasizing market-driven exchange rate formation while supporting RMB internationalization [14] - The ongoing reforms and policy measures aim to enhance the RMB's global standing and stabilize its exchange rate, creating a favorable environment for high-quality economic development [14]

张伟武表示，作为中国金融市场开放的见证者，熊猫债市场已成长为推动人民币国际化进程的重要引 擎。此次双方联合推出的系列指数反映了熊猫债市场整体情况及代表性发行人市场表现，能够为市场参 与者提供权威基准和跟踪标的，为熊猫债市场发展注入新动能。 徐良堆表示，中央结算公司积极参与熊猫债市场建设，不断丰富完善熊猫债及其他境外债券的定价基准 服务，服务债券市场双向开放。此次发布的系列指数将进一步提升相关成分券的流动性，让熊猫债在人 民币国际化进程中发挥更为重要的作用。 本报讯 记者张弛报道 近日，"中债—工行熊猫债系列指数"发布仪式在北京举行。中国工商银行 （601398）副行长张伟武，中央结算公司总经理兼中债估值中心董事长徐良堆出席仪式并致辞。理财公 司、基金公司、证券公司等市场机构代表一同参会，共同见证该系列指数发布。 近年来，随着监管政策的持续优化，熊猫债发行的国际兼容性与操作便利性不断提升，发行主体类型日 益多元、覆盖区域不断扩展、发行积极性显著提升。截至目前，银行间市场已有超100家发行人发行熊 猫债近570只，募集资金累计超过9600亿元，发行人覆盖亚洲、欧洲、非洲、美洲。 "中债—工行熊猫债系列指数"包含" ...

Core Viewpoint - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure on December 18 marks a significant step in China's commitment to high-level opening-up and the construction of an open world economy, presenting new development opportunities across various industries [1] Group 1: Support for Hainan's Full Island Closure - The full island closure operation is a foundational project for the Hainan Free Trade Port, with the National Development Bank's Hainan branch actively supporting infrastructure and logistics projects to ensure smooth implementation [2] - The bank has facilitated financing for major infrastructure projects, including upgrades to key ports and logistics hubs, ensuring that all ten "second-tier ports" pass national acceptance [2] - The Hainan branch of the National Development Bank prioritizes infrastructure service as its primary business initiative, engaging in significant projects aligned with national and provincial planning [2] Group 2: Growth of Cross-Border Financial Services - Post-closure, the convenience of cross-border capital flow is expected to significantly increase, with banks exploring new opportunities in cross-border trade settlement and offshore financial services [3] - Agricultural Bank of China has launched multifunctional free trade accounts to facilitate cross-border capital flow for quality enterprises in Hainan, establishing a comprehensive financial account service system [3] - The bank aims to enhance services for domestic and foreign enterprises investing in Hainan through collaborative mechanisms across various regions [3] Group 3: Financial Innovations and Support for Key Industries - Minsheng Bank's Haikou branch is actively engaging with cross-border financial reform policies, implementing innovative services such as cross-border asset transfers and QDLP pilot programs [4] - The financial sector is focusing on supporting Hainan's four leading industries and key areas to drive high-quality economic development [5] - Citic Bank's Haikou branch is committed to enhancing financial services for local enterprises, including innovative financing solutions for agricultural research and technology sectors [6]

Core Insights - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is accelerating, with a 14.0% year-on-year increase in cross-border RMB payments in the first half of the year, making it the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally [1] - The inclusion of RMB in the International Air Transport Association's (IATA) clearing system marks a significant milestone in the functional recognition of RMB in international financial clearing [1] - The transformation of RMB from a payment tool to an operational currency is evident, particularly among European companies deeply engaged in the Chinese market [2] Group 1: RMB's Role in Global Trade - RMB is increasingly embedded in global industrial division and multinational corporate operations, transitioning from a foreign exchange currency to an operational currency for European enterprises [2] - The local procurement, production, and sales cycles established by companies like Volkswagen and BMW in China create a natural demand for RMB as a key currency for pricing, settlement, and asset-liability management [2] Group 2: Corporate Adoption of RMB - The core motivation for multinational companies to adopt RMB has shifted from merely saving on exchange costs to enhancing risk management and optimizing global liquidity structures [3] - By integrating RMB into their internal settlement systems as a functional currency, companies achieve valuable natural hedging against financial risks from exchange rate fluctuations [3] Group 3: Institutional and Market Developments - The RMB internationalization process has made significant progress in institutional frameworks and market product innovation, transitioning from a regional payment method to a global trading and reserve network [4] - The establishment of offshore RMB market cooperation in bilateral mechanisms indicates a shift from spontaneous market behavior to coordinated policy efforts [4] Group 4: Global Currency System Diversification - The diversification of the global currency system, driven by changes in the global economic landscape and geopolitical factors, presents a "window of opportunity" for RMB [5] - A report indicates that 59% of sovereign institutions plan to increase their holdings of Chinese assets over the next five years, with North American sovereign funds showing a 73% willingness to invest [5] Group 5: Central Bank Perspectives - For central banks like the European Central Bank and the German Central Bank, the rationale for allocating RMB assets lies in achieving diversification of reserve assets [6] - RMB government bonds exhibit low correlation with Western assets, providing strategic hedging value and independent attributes in investment portfolios [6]

王爷说财经讯：破局美元霸权！中俄结算几乎全用本币！全球货币格局要变天了？ 2025年12月24日，一则重磅消息炸响金融圈：俄罗斯驻华大使——莫尔古洛夫正式表态，俄中已建立可靠的双边结算体系，几乎完全使用卢布和人民币进 行贸易结算。 这意味着中俄贸易中，美元彻底沦为"旁观者"，99.1%的交易都绕开了它！ 咱们普通人可能没感觉，但这事儿对全球金融圈来说，不亚于一场"地震"。为啥中俄要在这个节点彻底抛弃美元结算？这背后藏着怎样的考量？对咱们的 钱袋子、对全球货币格局又会有啥影响？ 01、俄中几乎完全用卢布人民币结算！ 先把事件来龙去脉说清楚。 首先得明确，这不是一时兴起的决定，而是中俄贸易合作深化的必然结果。 数据显示，中国已连续15年稳居俄罗斯最大贸易伙伴国地位，2024年两国贸易额就达到2448.19亿美元，俄罗斯也是中国第五大贸易伙伴国。 而在2020年，中俄贸易中本币结算比例还只有20%，短短几年就飙升到99.1%，这个增速足以说明双方合作的迫切性和坚定性。 更关键的是，两国已经搭建起独立于西方的结算通道，俄罗斯多家银行接入人民币跨境支付系统（CIPS），中方银行也加入了俄央行的SPFS系统，不用 再依赖 ...