美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周一在韩国央行国际会议上释放关键信号：尽管特朗普政府关税政策将推高失 业率并短期加剧通胀，但若核心通胀持续向2%目标迈进，今年晚些时候仍可能启动"利好式"降息。此番表 态为动荡中的全球市场注入一剂强心针。 关税冲击：短期阵痛而非长期威胁 沃勒重申其4月提出的双重情景框架： 核心通胀持续向2%目标收敛； 劳动力市场保持稳健态势。满足上述条件后，美联储可实施"利好式降息"（因通胀担忧缓解主动降息）， 而非经济衰退逼迫的"利空式降息"。 市场隐忧：赤字推升美债收益率 在与韩国央行行长李昌镛对话中，沃勒指出长期美债收益率攀升主因财政赤字担忧。市场原预期财政整固 取得进展，但现实是联邦赤字将长期维持在2万亿美元（占GDP 6%），导致投资者要求更高风险补 偿。"问题不在国债能否售出，而在市场愿付的价格"，他警示外国投资者避险情绪升温可能进一步推高收 益率。 政策分歧：鸽派孤勇者的博弈 作为美联储内最坚定呼吁放松政策的官员，沃勒立场与多数同僚形成鲜明对比： 高关税情景：商品平均关税达25%并长期维持，推升通胀但影响仍属暂时性； 低关税情景：平均关税10%并通过谈判逐步下调，失业率上升幅度相对温和 ...

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains below 4.5%, indicating economic uncertainty and multiple factors affecting market direction [1] - Global investors are reassessing debt and deficit issues across countries, not just in the U.S., with expectations of rising global bond yields [1][2] - The decline in the international appeal of U.S. Treasuries is evident as foreign investors, particularly from Japan, shift their focus back to domestic markets due to rising Japanese bond yields [2] Group 2 - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest among developed countries at 235%, while the U.S. stands at 122% [3] - Concerns are rising regarding European sovereign debt as fiscal pressures increase, with Germany's 10-year bond yield expected to rise from 2.5% to 3% [3] - The U.S. fiscal policy and tariff uncertainties complicate predictions for the 10-year Treasury yield, which is projected to end the year at 4.25% [3] Group 3 - A proposed tax bill in the U.S. could increase the fiscal deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, with the current fiscal deficit at 6.4% of GDP [4] - The likelihood of a severe market reaction similar to the U.K.'s past situation is considered low due to high current yields helping to stabilize the market [4] Group 4 - A sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields could negatively impact the stock market, leading to wider credit spreads and tighter financial conditions, ultimately suppressing economic growth [5] - Concerns about U.S. debt management are highlighted, with warnings that failure to control debt could lead to significant market disruptions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The rising fiscal deficit may impact the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to an increase in the neutral interest rate level [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller, indicated that a one-directional increase in the fiscal deficit could have implications for monetary policy [1] - The potential rise in the neutral interest rate level is a concern for the Federal Reserve as it navigates economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the House of Representatives is expected to increase the net deficit by at least $3 trillion over the next decade, with significant implications for U.S. fiscal policy and economic growth [3][11][28]. Summary by Sections Bill Content and Progress - The "Big Beautiful Bill" includes the permanent extension of key provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, additional tax relief measures, and increased spending in defense and border security while cutting expenditures in agriculture, education, and energy [3][11][13]. - The bill is projected to increase the national debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next ten years, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) [11][28]. Tax Policy - The bill extends and makes permanent the major provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, introduces new personal and family tax cuts, and raises the state and local tax deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 [13][14]. - It also imposes higher tax rates on passive income for individuals and corporations from countries deemed to have "discriminatory" tax policies, potentially reaching a maximum rate of 20% [4][14]. Deficit and Revenue Projections - The estimated annual tariff revenue is projected to reach around $200 billion, which could help mitigate the deficit increase caused by the bill, although it will not fully cover the shortfall from tax cuts [5][30]. - Under baseline assumptions, the deficit rates for 2025 to 2028 are estimated to be around 6.4% to 7.0%, with optimistic scenarios potentially lowering the rates slightly [6][30][28]. Economic Impact - The bill is expected to provide a marginal boost to economic growth, with projections indicating a real GDP growth rate of approximately 1.5% in 2025 and a potential recovery to 2.0%-2.5% in 2026 due to tax cuts and lower interest rates [7][32]. - However, the long-term fiscal sustainability remains a concern, as the combination of increased deficits and rising interest payments could lead to a significant increase in the national debt [34][38]. Long-term Debt and Interest Risks - The CBO estimates that if the ten-year Treasury yield remains at 4.5%, interest payments could exceed $13 trillion by 2034, significantly increasing the fiscal burden [34][38]. - The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from nearly 100% to 128% by 2034, raising concerns among credit rating agencies about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy [38]. Market Reactions and Bond Yields - Recent increases in long-term U.S. Treasury yields are attributed to the "Trump premium," reflecting market concerns over the fiscal implications of the "Big Beautiful Bill" and the potential for increased deficits [45][51]. - Despite short-term pressures, the 10-year Treasury bonds are still viewed as having significant investment value, especially in light of potential future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [52].

以下文章来源于中国银河宏观 ，作者中国银河宏观 中国银河宏观 . 中国银河证券宏观经济研究 文/中国银河证券首席宏观分析师 张迪 、 中国银河证券宏观经济分析师 于金潼 、中国银河证券宏观经济分析师助理 铁伟奥 5月22日，美国众议院以215比2 1 4票的微弱优势通过2 0 2 5财年预算 协调法案"The One , Bi g, Be a utif ul Bill "（大美丽法案）。不同机 构估计，该法案将在未来1 0年内使净赤字增加至少3万亿美元。这个 法案究竟会带来什么影响？ 大美丽法案包括什么？ 5月22日，美国众议院以215比214票的微弱优势通过2025财年预算协调法案"The One, Big, Beautiful Bill"（大美丽法案）。不同机构估计，该法案将在未来 10 年内使净赤字增加至少3 万亿美元。主要内容包括延长并永久化2017年《减税和就业法案》的主要条款，并添加额外的税收减免 政策；虽然在农业、教育、能源等领域削减了支出，但在国防和边境安全上扩大了支出，叠加减税政 策，总体上法案让美国政府赤字进一步上行。 其中外国资产税引人注意，法案第899条规定对美国认为 存在税收政策"歧 ...

分析师： 蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 | 资产类别 | 核心逻辑观点 | 配置建议 | | --- | --- | --- | | A股大盘 | > 颠簸与变局将近,以稳应变: | 中佳 | | | ◆ 国内经济基本面:关税反复,总需求回落压力上升,需关注政策发力的对冲效果; | | | | ◆ 资金面:A股成交额回落至"9.24"以来的低位,市场观望情绪上升 · | | | | ◆ 政策面:短期内以落实已部署正常政策为主,下半年或有增量政策; | | | | ◆ 外部环境:关税谈判期仅剩月余,不确定性有抬头的风险,且不可预测性较强。 | | | | > 关税豁免期临近结束(7月8日),变盘节点临近,6-7月或先抑后扬:关税豁免期仅剩月余,不确定性 | | | | 抗动或上升,目市场成交活跃度回落,市场临沂变盘。此外,结构上或将出现风格变化,今年以来市场 | | | | 缩圈至更为极致的"杠铃"策略 -- 大盘权重+微盘,即以银行为代表的权重以及以微盛股指数为代表 | | | | 的方向表现更为突出。但这一趋势当前面临 ...

美国管理和预算局主任Vought：特朗普的支出法案将改善财政赤字。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the "Beautiful Act" proposed by the Trump administration, which focuses on tax reforms and budget modifications in the United States. Core Points and Arguments - The "Beautiful Act" aims to extend and upgrade existing tax reduction policies, including personal income tax rate reductions, standard deduction settings, and estate tax exemptions, with an expected fiscal expansion of approximately $4 trillion for residents. However, the permanent nature of the personal income tax rate could lead to a cumulative deficit of about $10.2 trillion over the next decade [1][2][3]. - The corporate tax rate remains unchanged at 21%, with only minor adjustments in areas such as capital investment expensing, depreciation calculations, and profit shifting to avoid excessive fiscal pressure [1][2]. - To ensure government funding, the "Beautiful Act" requires an increase of approximately $4 trillion in the debt ceiling, alongside spending cuts in areas like Medicaid, Affordable Care Act subsidies, food stamps, and student loans [1][3]. - The Senate review process for the "Beautiful Act" may involve modifications, as the Senate can amend provisions that violate budget rules. The final version must be agreed upon by both the House and Senate and signed by the President to take effect [4]. Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - There are internal divisions within the Republican Party regarding the "Beautiful Act," with some senators opposing the scale of the debt ceiling increase or the adequacy of spending cuts. The critical deadlines include a hard constraint period from late July to early August, with September 30 being the final deadline for budget resolution [5][6]. - If the "Beautiful Act" fails to pass on time, it could lead to a sovereign debt default for the U.S. government, increasing fiscal policy uncertainty and negatively impacting the economy, including decreased consumer confidence and worsened corporate profit expectations [2][7]. - The act includes new tax benefits for residents, such as deductions for tip income and overtime pay, and the establishment of Magma accounts for U.S.-born children to support education, entrepreneurship, or home purchases [3].

Group 1 - The White House and the Government Accountability Office (GAO) are in a dispute over the Trump administration's fiscal policies, particularly regarding the delay of electric vehicle infrastructure funding [1][3] - The GAO ruled that the Trump administration's withholding of funds for the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program (NEVI) was illegal, violating the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974 [3] - The White House has criticized the GAO's motives, claiming it has become a partisan tool and questioning its legal standing [3][4] Group 2 - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has projected that the Trump administration's "Big Beautiful Bill" could lead to a federal deficit increase of trillions of dollars, contrasting sharply with the White House's claims [1][5] - The CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit will reach $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2025 and increase to $2.7 trillion by 2035, with adjusted deficits projected to be 6.1% of GDP by 2035 [5] - The White House has accused the CBO of using flawed predictive models and being biased towards the Democratic Party, citing a lack of Republican donations among its staff [5][6]

Group 1 - Mahathir expressed that the U.S. cannot prevent China's rise due to its capabilities and strength, which are comparable to Western countries [1][3] - He criticized Trump's policies, stating that they reflect a lack of serious consideration and are detrimental to both the U.S. and global stability [1][3] - Mahathir believes that the U.S. is unable to stop China's ascent, as China has existed far longer and is destined to become a leading global power [3] Group 2 - The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are seen as an attempt to salvage U.S. global dominance by undermining China's economic foundation, but they have led to increased costs for American consumers [3][5] - Mahathir anticipates that Trump will have to cancel these tariffs within three months due to the pressure from other nations negotiating for lower rates [5] - Concerns were raised about the U.S. government's rising debt and its implications for the economy, with a shift in focus from tariff disputes to fiscal issues [7] Group 3 - The recent legislation in Florida recognizing gold and silver as legal tender is viewed as a challenge to the Federal Reserve's policies, reflecting a growing skepticism towards the dollar [5] - High-profile business leaders, including JPMorgan's CEO, have expressed doubts about the effectiveness of the U.S. government's hardline strategies against China, advocating for cooperative solutions instead [7]