Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, but there are differing opinions within the committee regarding the extent of the cut [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, which was anticipated by the market [1]. - New board member Miran expressed a preference for a 50 basis point cut, indicating a divergence in opinions within the Fed [1]. - The immediate market reaction included a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield and fluctuations in gold prices, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rising [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Interpretations - Following the Fed's announcement, there was a notable shift in market sentiment, with traders increasing bets on at least one more rate cut this year [1]. - Analysts highlighted that the initial market response to the Fed's decision was based on prior expectations, but subsequent interpretations and analyses shaped the market's direction [2][5]. - The commentary from major financial institutions, such as Morgan Stanley and CNBC, indicated a more hawkish outlook, suggesting that the Fed may only cut rates once by 2026, which contrasts with market expectations [5]. Group 3: Powell's Statements and Market Sentiment - Powell's emphasis on evaluating conditions "meeting by meeting" suggests a reluctance to signal a continuous rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to uncertainty in market expectations [4]. - The focus on employment risks in Powell's remarks indicates a shift towards prioritizing job market stability over inflation concerns [4]. - The market's reaction to Powell's statements included a rebound in two-year Treasury yields and a recovery in the 10-year yield, underscoring the importance of long-term rates in influencing the economy [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 黄金 1、基本面：美联储如期降息25个基点，美联储给出的信号鹰鸽参半，金价回落；美 国三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨6.12个基点 报4.089%；美元指数涨0.40%报97.03，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值报7.1023；COMEX 黄金期货跌0.82%报3694.60美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注欧央行行长讲话、英央行利率决议和会议纪要、欧央行官员密集 讲话。美联储会议如期降息，但信号未如市场预期鸽派，预期落地，金价回落。沪 金溢价继续收敛至-9元/克。金价情绪有所收敛，等待回落后机会。 2、基差：黄金期货835.08，现货832.55，基差- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points this morning, officially restarting the rate - cut cycle, with the weakening employment market as the main basis. The overall interest - rate decision and tone were in line with expectations. The median forecast of the interest rate at the end of 2025 dropped to 3.625%, implying two more rate cuts in October and December this year. The median forecast for 2026 is 3.38%, suggesting one rate cut next year but with a small margin. The median expected interest rates for 2027 and 2028 are both 3.13%. The Fed maintained its balance - sheet reduction, and the market expects QT to pause at the end of the year [8]. - Powell is inclined to emphasize employment risks but is not completely relaxed about inflation. The market's expectation of rate cuts within this year is basically fixed after this FOMC meeting, and attention should be paid to long - term expectations, which are affected by fundamentals, Fed leadership changes, and the Fed's independence [9][10]. - For gold, although the current meeting is in line with expectations, the upside space may be limited after this year's rate cuts. For copper, the price adjustment space is small, and it will maintain a volatile trend. For生猪, after the policy expectations are fulfilled, the weakness of the spot market is difficult to change [12][14][22]. Summaries by Directory Fed Rate - Cut Analysis - **Rate - Cut Decision**: The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, restarting the rate - cut cycle. The median interest - rate forecast at the end of 2025 is 3.625%, and there are expected to be two more rate cuts in October and December. The median forecast for 2026 is 3.38%, with one rate cut expected [8]. - **Economic Forecasts**: The expected real GDP year - on - year growth rates for 2025 - 2027 are 1.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9% respectively, up from the previous period. The core PCE year - on - year expectations are 3.1%, 2.6%, and 2.1% respectively, also up but with a relatively mild long - term outlook. The unemployment rate expectations are 4.5%, 4.4%, and 4.3% respectively, showing a cautious view on employment this year [8]. - **Powell's Speech**: Powell is concerned about employment risks, as the unemployment rate has slightly increased, new job creation has decreased, and both supply and demand in the labor market are weak. Regarding inflation, the impact of US government policy changes on the economy and inflation remains to be seen [9]. Sector Analysis Gold - **Market Reaction**: After the FOMC meeting, the initial market reaction was positive, with gold rising and the dollar and interest rates falling. However, after Powell's press conference, the trend reversed. The price of gold reaching 3700 was already pricing in three rate cuts this year, and the dot - plot further confirmed this. The long - term rate - cut path for 2026 and 2027 did not change significantly, and there may be a significant rebound in long - term interest rates after this year's rate cuts. The upside space for gold is limited [12]. Copper - **Macro and Fundamental Factors**: The Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut sent a mixed signal. High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand and terminal consumption, but price drops may promote restocking. The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the spot TC remains weak, leading to an expansion of smelting losses. The copper output in September is expected to decline. Overall, the macro and micro factors cannot form a resonance, and the copper price will maintain a volatile trend with limited downward adjustment space [14][30]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: The zinc market is in a state of consolidation. The closing prices of the Shanghai zinc main contract and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk showed small changes. The inventory and other indicators also had minor fluctuations. The trend intensity is neutral [33]. Lead - **Price Support**: The reduction in lead inventory supports the price to fluctuate. The closing prices of the Shanghai lead main contract and the LME lead 3M electronic disk increased slightly. The inventory of lead decreased, which is conducive to price stability [36]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Trends**: Aluminum is expected to trade in a range, alumina is expected to rebound from the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The relevant indicators such as prices, trading volumes, and inventories of these products have shown different degrees of change. The trend intensity of all three is neutral [44][45]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: The contradictions in the nickel smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end. The prices and relevant indicators of nickel and related products in the industrial chain have changed slightly. The trend intensity is neutral [46]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between short - term and long - term logics, and the steel price may fluctuate. The prices and trading volumes of stainless - steel futures have changed, and the trend intensity is neutral [46]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Situation**: Driven by strong energy - storage demand, the carbonate - lithium market will operate in a volatile manner. The prices and trading volumes of carbonate - lithium futures contracts have changed, and the spot price has increased. The trend intensity is neutral [53][54]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to market - sentiment changes. The price of industrial - silicon futures has increased slightly, and the inventory has changed. The trend intensity is neutral [56][57]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price has increased slightly. The prices and relevant indicators of polysilicon futures and related products in the industrial chain have changed. The trend intensity of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [57][59]. Iron Ore - **Market Volatility**: The iron - ore market has repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations. The futures price increased slightly, and the spot prices of different types of iron ore remained relatively stable. The trend intensity is neutral [60]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Rebar**: It will trade in a wide range. The futures price increased slightly, and the spot prices in different regions decreased slightly. The basis and spread indicators have changed. The trend intensity is neutral [62][63]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It will also trade in a wide range. The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot prices in different regions decreased. The basis and spread indicators have changed. The trend intensity is neutral [63]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trends**: Boosted by macro sentiment, both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will show a relatively strong and volatile trend. The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased, and the spot prices changed. The trend intensity of both is 1 (slightly bullish) [67][69]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Fluctuations**: Both the coke and coking - coal markets have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations. The futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased slightly, and the spot prices of coking coal increased while the coke price decreased. The basis and spread indicators have changed. The trend intensity of both is neutral [70][71][72]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The log market will fluctuate repeatedly, but no detailed data or analysis is provided in the report [73].

毕马威首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示，美联储试图说，他们正在解除一些限制以提振劳动力市场。但 如果将这一政策延续至明年，届时美联储将迎来主要领导层变动，可能会出现过度刺激的情况，从而形 成一种更有害的自我实现的预言，即消费者和企业预期通胀将更高。（格隆汇） ...

Economic Outlook - Brazil's Ministry of Finance has revised the GDP growth forecast for this year from 2.5% to 2.3% [1] - Inflation expectations have also been adjusted downwards from 4.9% to 4.8% [1] Impact of Tariffs - The potential imposition of tariffs by the U.S. from August 2025 to December 2026 could lead to a 0.2 percentage point decrease in Brazil's GDP growth [1] - However, the "Brazil Sovereignty Plan" is expected to mitigate this negative impact, reducing the GDP growth decline to 0.1 percentage points [1] Employment Effects - Without considering the effects of the "Brazil Sovereignty Plan," Brazil could lose approximately 138,000 jobs [1] - The services sector may see a loss of 51,800 jobs, representing about 0.1% of total employment in that sector [1] - The industrial sector is projected to lose 71,500 jobs, accounting for roughly 0.4% of its total employment [1] Additional Economic Indicators - The share of exports in GDP is expected to decline by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The unemployment rate may increase by 0.1 percentage points [1] - Inflation rate is anticipated to rise by 0.1 percentage points [1]

新华财经北京9月17日电（王姝睿）印尼央行在9月政策会议上意外降息25个基点至4.75%，为2022年底 以来最低利率水平，打破市场维持利率不变的预期。该决策基于2025-2026年印尼通胀将维持在2.5% ±1%目标区间内的预期，且需要持续支持经济增长。 印尼央行行长佩里·瓦吉约表示，该利率决定已考虑美联储降息的可能性。 目前印尼经济增长仍低于国内产能，需求需要推动。佩里·瓦吉约称，降息是为了支持经济增长，利率 决定旨在确保印尼卢比汇率反映基本面，将继续评估降息空间以推动经济增长，在考虑通胀和印尼卢比 汇率的因素后，再决定是否进一步降息。印尼央行将加强宽松的宏观审慎政策，加大货币扩张力度，以 支持贷款、GDP增长；将使用货币政策操作以加强基准利率下调的传导效果。 近期受国内政治局势影响，印尼卢比波动性有所上升。分析称，预计印尼央行将继续通过干预离岸及在 岸无本金交割远期（NDF）市场、即期市场，以及在二级市场购债等方式，强化稳定市场的举措。印尼 央行还将通过开放流动性通道来确保银行拥有足够的流动性。 同时，印尼央行还将隔夜存款便利利率下调50个基点至3.75%，贷款便利利率下调25个基点至5.50%。 印尼 ...

•美国银行：经济数据表明当前的金融环境对黄金有利 •银河期货：贵金属在流动性宽松的预期下迎来了新的突破 强劲走势有望延续 •光大期货：谨防短线利多落地后的市场大幅波动 •正信期货：金融和避险属性为贵金属提供底部支撑 预计未来延续震荡上行 •银河期货表示，美联储9月FOMC会议召开在即，当前9月降息25bps已接近完全定价，市场博弈聚焦于 交易未来更快和更大的降息幅度的可能性。从美国近期的宏观"硬"数据来看，8月CPI尽管再度反弹，但 较为温和且整体仍符合市场的预期；同时，8月非农数据爆冷且对此前数据出现年度级别的大幅下修， 凸显出美国劳动力市场的脆弱性，市场对于美联储年内三次降息的预期持续走高。在这种背景下，美元 和美债收益率偏弱运行，贵金属也在流动性宽松的预期下迎来了新的突破，强劲走势有望延续。提示关 注周四凌晨的议息会议结果，市场波动可能阶段性放大。 •光大期货表示，美国8月零售销售环比增0.6%，连续三个月超预期增长，实际零售销售连续11个月增 长，经济韧性凸显。另外，美众院共和党人提出短期支出议案避免政府关门，缓解市场避险情绪。美联 储议息将至，黄金市场表现依然强势，表明市场对年内降息次数和幅度有所期 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that global stock indices mostly rose, with significant increases in the Nikkei 225 (up 4.1%) and the Hang Seng Index (up 3.8%) [2][3] - Precious metals prices have continued to rise for three consecutive weeks, with COMEX gold increasing by 1.3% to $3646.3 per ounce [2][56] - The U.S. market has fully priced in expectations for three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, following the August CPI data release [2][87] Group 2 - Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, which has heightened expectations for more expansive fiscal policies in Japan [2][68] - The resignation is attributed to the ruling party's historic losses in elections, leading to a potential increase in long-term interest rates if a more expansionary fiscal policy is adopted [2][68] - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 3.3% following the announcement, indicating market reactions to potential fiscal changes [2][68] Group 3 - The article notes that the U.S. average tariff rate stands at 9.75%, with a notably high rate of 40.36% on imports from China, contributing approximately $10.1 billion in tariff revenue [2][72] - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to review tariff policies, which could impact future tariff structures [2][72] Group 4 - The U.S. Treasury auction results indicate strong demand for government bonds, particularly in the mid-term category, with bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 3 for certain maturities [2][74] - The auction results reflect robust interest from global institutions in locking in U.S. Treasury yields [2][74] Group 5 - As of September 9, the cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2025 reached $1.32 trillion, slightly up from $1.31 trillion in the previous year [2][75] - Total expenditures for the year amounted to $5.67 trillion, compared to $5.30 trillion in the same period last year [2][75]

Economic Outlook - The economic sentiment in the Eurozone improved in September, with the economic sentiment index rising by 1.0 points to 26.1, exceeding market expectations of 20.3 [1] - The current economic situation index also improved by 2.4 points to -28.8, indicating a more favorable outlook [1] - Approximately 51.7% of surveyed analysts expect stable economic activity, while 37.2% anticipate improvement, and 11.1% foresee deterioration [1] Labor Costs - Eurozone hourly labor costs increased by 3.6% year-on-year in Q2, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 3.7% but higher than the revised 3.4% in Q1 [1] - Wage growth was recorded at 3.7% in Q2, up from 3.5% in Q1, while non-wage costs grew by 3.4%, compared to the previous 3.2% [1] - Labor costs in the business economy sector rose by 4.0%, with construction leading at 4.7%, followed by services at 4.3%, and industry at 3.3% [1] Industrial Production - Eurozone industrial production increased by 0.3% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline of 0.6% and aligning with market expectations [2] - Year-on-year, industrial production grew by 1.8%, significantly faster than the 0.7% growth in June [2] - Notable increases were seen in capital goods production, which rebounded by 1.3%, durable consumer goods by 1.1%, and non-durable consumer goods by 1.5% [2] Economic Dynamics - The data indicates a recovery in economic momentum within the Eurozone, although persistently high labor costs may support inflation [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market is awaiting the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, leading to higher gold and silver prices. The US three major stock indexes closed higher, European three major stock indexes mostly rose, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. With the approaching September Fed meeting, gold prices strengthened again before the meeting, and silver prices followed gold prices, with the sentiment remaining strong [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. There are still risks of increased gains in silver prices due to tariff concerns [9][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The market awaited the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, causing gold prices to rise. The US three major stock indexes closed higher, European three major stock indexes mostly rose, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $3719.50 per ounce. The basis was -3.88, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2799 kilograms to 52950 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the market awaited the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, leading to higher silver prices. COMEX silver futures rose 0.84% to $43.19 per ounce. The basis was -25, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6382 kilograms to 1246569 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the expectations and the reality of the US new government's policies will continue, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, remaining prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. There are stronger tariff concerns for silver prices, and there is a risk of increased gains. The global situation is turbulent, with the resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment, the shadow Fed is significant, the expectation of interest rate cuts has risen again, the situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East are tense, inflation has resurfaced, and tariff concerns have an impact [12]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:50: Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor for Economic Affairs at the Reserve Bank of Australia, participates in a fireside chat during the 2025 AFIA Conference in Sydney. - Time TBD: The 2025 Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Conference, the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference in Ningde, Fujian, and the 2025 BRICS New Industrial Revolution Partnership Forum are held. - 14:00: UK July three - month ILO employment figures and unemployment rate are released. - 14:30: Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwart - Narueput holds a briefing on the economy and monetary policy. - 15:00: European Central Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus presents the economic outlook report for Lithuania. - Time TBD: US President Trump visits the UK, possibly lasting until September 18, accompanied by executives from companies such as Nvidia, OpenAI, and BlackRock. - 16:00: European Central Bank Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva speaks in Madrid, Spain. - 17:00: Germany's September ZEW economic sentiment index is released. - 19:00: The Bank of Spain releases a new economic outlook report. - 20:30: US August retail sales, August import and export price indexes, and Canada's August CPI are released. - Time TBD: The two - day FOMC monetary policy meeting of the Fed begins. - 21:15: US August industrial production data is released. - 22:00: US September NAHB housing market index and July business inventory data are released [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold and Silver Price Movements**: The report shows the price movements of various gold and silver products, including Shanghai gold and silver futures, COMEX gold and silver futures, SGE gold and silver T + D, London gold and silver spot prices, and the US dollar index [15]. - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping 3.64 basis points to 4.034% [4][5][25]. - **ETF Holdings**: SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased, and silver ETF holdings continued to decrease but were higher than the same period in the past two years [33][36]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level, while Shanghai gold warehouse receipts remained flat. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly but were higher than the same period last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to increase, with renewed tariff concerns [37][39]. 5. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions**: As of September 15, 2025, the long positions were 250,048, a decrease of 1,099 (-0.44%) compared to September 14; the short positions were 85,595, an increase of 1,315 (1.56%); the net positions were 164,453, a decrease of 2,414 (-1.45%) [30]. - **Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions**: As of September 15, 2025, the long positions were 375,292, a decrease of 10,769 (-2.79%) compared to September 12; the short positions were 279,860, a decrease of 5,297 (-1.86%); the net positions were 95,432, a decrease of 5,472 (-5.42%) [31].