1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the price of electrolytic copper may show an inverted "V" trend throughout the year. It may fluctuate strongly in the first half of the year, challenging new highs, and weakly in the second half. The volatility of copper prices is expected to converge to a limited extent, and call options remain highly suitable. The main influencing factors include the Fed's monetary policy, Sino - US relations, changes in copper concentrate TC, and energy storage demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Copper Market Review - In 2025, copper prices showed a generally strong and fluctuating trend. By December 10, the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract had risen by nearly 25% during the year. The copper futures market went through four stages: in the first stage (January - March), the first wave of price increase was driven by the tightening supply of copper concentrate and the market's expectation of rising US inflation. In the second stage (April - mid - September), after hitting bottom, the price rebounded and then consolidated for a long time, affected by trade wars, Fed rate - cut expectations, and other factors. In the third stage (late September - mid - November), the second wave of price increase occurred due to the supply shortage of copper concentrate and positive market news. In the fourth stage (mid - November - present), the price repeatedly broke through historical highs, driven by market concerns about the Fed's future policies [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment Outlook 3.2.1 Fed Policy May Remain Loose - In 2025, the Fed's policy experienced multiple adjustments, including rate cuts and the end of the balance - sheet reduction plan. Looking ahead, according to the dot - plot after the December meeting, there is still one rate cut expected in 2026 and 2027. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will continue to expand its balance sheet and the independence of the Fed after Powell's term ends [11][12]. 3.2.2 Sino - US Game Will Continue - In 2025, Sino - US tariff disputes went through several rounds of escalation and mitigation. The US used tariff hikes as a bargaining chip. In the future, Sino - US tariff disputes are expected to continue, and the US may focus on issues such as fentanyl and rare - earth exports [13][15]. 3.3 Demand Side: Emerging Demands Show Obvious Increases and May Explode in 2026 3.3.1 Traditional Industries Have Limited Growth - **Real Estate Remains in a Downturn**: In 2025, despite a series of policies, real - estate investment, new construction, and completion data continued to decline. In 2026, although the government will continue to promote real - estate stability policies, the real - estate market is expected to continue to drag down copper demand in the short term [16][19]. - **White Goods Production and Sales First Strong Then Weak**: In 2025, with the support of the "trade - in" policy, white - goods production and sales were strong in the first half of the year but weakened later. In 2026, with the possible continuation of the policy and the replacement cycle, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales of three major white goods is expected to be higher than in 2025. However, the year - on - year growth rate of exports of white goods has declined overall compared to last year, and its contribution to copper demand growth has weakened [23][24]. 3.3.2 Emerging Demands Will Gradually Become the Main Force of Copper Demand - **AI and Computing Power May Boost Future Power Grid Demand**: In 2025, power and grid infrastructure investment showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. In the future, AI and computing - power industries will become important demand drivers for power and grid infrastructure [29]. - **New - energy Vehicles Provide Stable Increases Despite Slower Growth**: In 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales maintained a relatively high year - on - year growth rate, providing stable copper demand. In 2026, although the subsidy for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales is still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32][34]. - **Photovoltaic Installation in China Has Stable Increases and Exports Are Impressive**: In 2025, due to policy changes, there was a "rush - to - install" phenomenon in the first five months, and the year - on - year growth rate of cumulative new installations and cumulative installations showed an inverted "V" trend. In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of photovoltaic installation may be lower than in 2025 but will still be high. Photovoltaic cell exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate [35][37]. - **Energy Storage Demand May Explode**: In 2025, the new energy - storage installation volume in China is expected to increase by 24% year - on - year. In 2026, it is expected to reach 230GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate close to 70%. Globally, the new energy - storage installation volume in 2026 is expected to reach 480GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate of 60%, providing significant copper demand growth [44][47]. 3.4 Supply Side: Mine - end Shortage Persists, and Smelter Production Cuts May Expand 3.4.1 Frequent Overseas Mine Incidents Lead to Continuous Decline in Copper Concentrate TC - In 2025, overseas copper mines experienced many incidents, causing copper concentrate TC to decline continuously. CSPT called on domestic smelters to jointly cut production in the fourth quarter. In 2026, the global copper concentrate increment is expected to be 45 - 56 tons, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. The shortage of copper concentrate will persist in the first half of 2026, and TC may remain at a very low level [49][62]. 3.4.2 Copper Mine Shortage Has Limited Impact on the Smelting End - In 2025, although copper concentrate was in short supply, the global and Chinese electrolytic copper production basically maintained the highest level in the same period of the past five years. In 2026, the shortage of copper concentrate may be difficult to ease in the first half of the year, and the domestic smelting industry may have a larger - scale joint production cut than in Q4 2025 [63]. 3.4.3 The Siphon Effect of US Copper Continues, and Spot Supplies of Shanghai and London Copper Are Tight - In 2025, due to factors such as tariffs, COMEX copper was at a significant premium, leading to a change in the global copper trade pattern. Copper flowed into the US, causing the inventory of COMEX copper to rise continuously, while the inventory of Shanghai and London copper decreased, resulting in a long - term tight spot supply and high prices [68][70]. 3.4.4 High Copper Prices Pressure Downstream Demand, and Social Inventory Remains at a High Level - In 2025, electrolytic copper social inventory increased to a high level in September, but it had little pressure on copper prices, which were mainly driven by macro factors and low copper concentrate TC [77]. 3.5 Future Outlook and Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.5.1 Global Copper Concentrate Supply - Demand Balance Remains Tight - In 2025, the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance was expected to be - 35 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 40 tons, with the supply gap widening compared to 2025. The shortage will persist in Q1 2026 and gradually ease in the later quarters [79][80]. 3.5.2 Electrolytic Copper Supply - Demand Balance - **Global**: In 2025, the global electrolytic copper supply - demand balance was in a tight state at - 5 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 21 tons, with the gap widening. - **China**: In 2025, the supply - demand balance of Chinese electrolytic copper was - 20.04 tons, with the gap nearly doubling compared to 2024. In 2026, it may decline slightly to - 30 tons, with the gap widening slightly compared to 2025 [81][83].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The difference between the reality and expectation of lithium carbonate increases the long - short divergence, and the price is in a high - level oscillation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 127,800, with changes of 6,260 compared to T - 1, 18,080 compared to T - 5, etc. The trading volume is 12,772, and the open interest is 21,877. For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 130,520, trading volume is 428,716, and open interest is 577,035. The warehouse receipt volume is 17,861 [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The basis between spot and 2601 contract is - 15,900, and between spot and 2605 contract is - 18,620; the difference between 2601 and 2605 contracts is - 2,720; the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 2,650; the difference between spot and CIF is 22,771 [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,490, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,355. Battery - grade lithium carbonate is 111,900, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 109,250, etc. [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 111,682 yuan/ton, up 6,544 yuan/ton from the previous workday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 111,900 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 109,250 yuan/ton, both up 7,000 yuan/ton [2] - **Company News**: Anda Technology will conduct a one - month maintenance of some production lines from January 1, 2026, expected to reduce lithium iron phosphate production by 3,000 - 5,000 tons, with no significant impact on production and operation [3] - **Policy News**: The National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that for the "new three items" industries such as new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, the key is to standardize the order and innovate, including regulating market competition, strengthening supply chain governance, and increasing technological innovation [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the global electrolytic aluminum supply will remain tight next year and that aluminum prices are expected to stay strong in the medium to long term due to supply constraints and growing demand from emerging industries [7]. - The recommended strategy is to continue holding medium - term long positions and engage in short - term rolling long positions, with the reference support range for SHFE Aluminum 2603 at 21,600 - 21,700 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Macro**: The US economy shows resilience, with a 4.3% growth in real GDP in Q3 2025. There are expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy after a potential change in the Fed Chair [7]. - **Supply**: China's electrolytic aluminum capacity expansion is restricted. Indonesia's planned new capacity is large but limited in actual increase in 2025. European production declined due to the energy crisis, and US output dropped for five consecutive years. Global supply is expected to be tight in the coming year [7]. - **Demand**: The domestic real - estate market is sluggish, but its impact on aluminum demand is reduced. New energy vehicles, energy storage, AI, and power grid construction in China and abroad are driving aluminum demand [7]. - **Inventory**: China's social aluminum inventory slightly increased due to rising prices and the end - of - year off - season [7]. - **View**: Medium - to long - term aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold medium - term long positions and do short - term rolling long positions, with SHFE Aluminum 2603 supported at 21,600 - 21,700 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report includes charts of domestic aluminum futures and spot prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premiums/discounts, LME aluminum prices, and the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, but no specific data analysis is provided [11][16] 3. Supply and Inventory - **Bauxite**: In November 2025, China imported 15.11 million tons of bauxite, a 22.5% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, cumulative imports were 187 million tons, a 29.61% increase. Guinea and Australia are major sources. Guinea's new production projects are expected to increase output [23][25][26]. - **Alumina**: In November 2025, China's alumina production was 8.138 million tons, an 8.4% year - on - year increase for January - November. There was a net export of 1.373 million tons from January to November. New domestic and overseas capacities are expected in 2025 and 2026 [39][43]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In November 2025, the cost of electrolytic aluminum increased, while profits grew. The built - in capacity was 45.158 million tons, and the operating rate was 96.28%. Global and domestic production increased slightly in 2025. Import and export data showed changes in 2025. LME and domestic social inventories were reported as of December 2025 [53][59][60] 4. Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Aluminum Alloys**: In November 2025, China's aluminum alloy production was 1.739 million tons, with a 15.8% increase from January to November [79]. - **Aluminum Products**: In November 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.931 million tons, a slight decrease. Import and export volumes of unforged aluminum and aluminum products changed in 2025 [86][92]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand structure of electrolytic aluminum in China is changing. The real - estate sector's demand is decreasing, while transportation, power, and other sectors are growing. Forecasts for transportation, power, and energy storage show an upward trend in aluminum demand [100][105][106] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: In 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum is expected to be in a tight balance, and the global market is also expected to be in a tight balance. After 2027, the global supply - demand gap may widen [110]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific content provided in the report

Group 1 - The market showed a continuous rebound this week, with all three major indices recording five consecutive days of gains. The CSI 500 index led with a weekly increase of 4.03%, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices lagged behind [2][30]. - In terms of sector performance, industries such as non-ferrous metals, industrial trade, national defense, and chemicals saw significant gains, while utilities, media and entertainment, transportation, and pharmaceuticals underperformed [4][30]. - The thematic sectors that performed well included fiberglass, lithium battery electrolytes, Hainan Free Trade Port, photovoltaics, and batteries [5][30]. Group 2 - In November, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions. Conversely, the non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points [8]. - Consumer prices in November rose by 0.7% year-on-year, while the average for January to November remained flat compared to the previous year. Month-on-month, consumer prices decreased by 0.1% [13]. - In November, the export value from China increased by 5.9% year-on-year, while imports grew by 1.9%. The trade surplus reached $111.68 billion, up from $90.07 billion in the previous period [19]. - New social financing in November amounted to 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 159.7 billion yuan year-on-year, with new deposits totaling 1.41 trillion yuan [19]. - The industrial added value in November saw a real growth of 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.44%. For the first eleven months, the growth was 6.0% year-on-year [21]. - Fixed asset investment from January to November totaled 4440.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.6% year-on-year, with real estate development investment down by 15.9% [24][25]. - Retail sales of consumer goods in November reached 43.898 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, while the total for January to November grew by 4.0% [27][29]. Group 3 - The market outlook remains optimistic, with expectations for a spring rally in the coming year due to policy support and major projects being prioritized. The focus will be on domestic demand policies as a key driver for market performance [30][33]. - Despite current market fluctuations, there is a belief that the market will strengthen gradually, with strategies focusing on upcoming earnings disclosures and themes such as domestic demand, anti-involution, new momentum, and technological growth [33].

Price Tracking - The battery-grade lithium carbonate index price is 111,682 CNY/ton, an increase of 6,544 CNY/ton compared to the previous working day [1] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 111,900 CNY/ton, with a rise of 7,000 CNY/ton from the previous working day [1] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate averages 109,250 CNY/ton, also up by 7,000 CNY/ton from the previous working day [1] - Upstream lithium salt manufacturers are primarily focused on fulfilling long-term contract orders, with limited spot transactions [1] - Downstream material manufacturers are cautious about the rapid price increase, primarily purchasing based on long-term contracts and customer supply [1] - Some companies are forced to accept high-priced sources to maintain production due to urgent demand, which continues to push the current spot price upward [1] Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of regulating order and leading innovation in the "new three" industries, including new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics [2] - According to GGII, there are over 282 publicly announced investment projects in China's lithium battery industry chain by 2025, with a total investment exceeding 820 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of over 74% [2] - Policies related to the recycling and comprehensive utilization of used power batteries are expected to be introduced soon [2] - A document regarding the adjustment of lithium salt spot settlement prices has circulated in the industry, indicating that from January 1, 2026, Tianqi Lithium's spot trading settlement prices will no longer reference existing standards but will instead refer to Mysteel's battery-grade lithium salt prices or the main contract prices of lithium carbonate futures [2] - Tibet Mining stated that its lithium carbonate sales prices are based on the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network prices, and the company will enhance market analysis to ensure stable operations [2] - Yihada reported that its sales in the lithium battery industry accounted for approximately 22% in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 52% [3] - LG Energy Solution announced that Freudenberg Battery Power Systems has canceled a 3.9 trillion KRW electric vehicle battery supply contract scheduled for 2024 [3]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai tin contract 2602 increased by 4,590 yuan, or 1.37%, closing at 338,550 yuan per ton after reaching a high of 344,470 yuan and a low of 332,820 yuan during the day [1] - The trading volume for the main contract was 369,071 lots, with an open interest of 52,276 lots, showing a decrease of 968 lots from the previous day [1] - The average price of 1 tin in the Changjiang market rose by 1,800 yuan to 333,900 yuan per ton, while the average price in the spot market was 334,000 yuan, up by 1,750 yuan from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Macro Factors - Tin prices are being driven by a combination of macroeconomic policies, exchange rates, and liquidity, with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut due to unexpectedly slowing U.S. CPI data [1] - The strong appreciation of the RMB has effectively reduced domestic import costs, enhancing optimistic market expectations for Chinese demand [1] - Continuous signals for "stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand" policies are boosting market confidence, although the transmission to the real economy may take time [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tin market is at a critical juncture characterized by a "supply crisis, demand negotiation, and industrial chain restructuring" [2] - Supply is under "epic tension" due to slow recovery in Myanmar, strict crackdowns on illegal mining in Indonesia, and escalating conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a shortage of concentrates that restricts smelting capacity [2] - Demand is showing "structural differentiation," with short-term support from holiday stocking and electronic product surges, but high prices are suppressing actual purchases, leading to a "high price, low market" scenario [2] Group 4: Future Price Outlook - The future price of tin will depend on the "rigid supply contraction" and the "demand response to high prices" [2] - In the short term, tin prices are likely to maintain a high oscillation within the core range of 330,000 to 350,000 yuan per ton, with increasing pressure for a pullback [2] - If pre-holiday stocking does not meet expectations, prices may test the lower end of this range, with rebound momentum constrained by weak spot transactions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tianjin Jinrong Tianyu Precision Machinery Co., Ltd., is leveraging opportunities from the Belt and Road Initiative and expanding its operations in Southeast Asia and India, particularly in the clean energy sector, including photovoltaic and energy storage solutions [2][3]. Company Overview - Tianjin Jinrong Tianyu was established on June 9, 2004, and went public on May 12, 2021. The company specializes in the research, development, production, and sales of precision metal molds and related components [7]. - The main business revenue breakdown includes: electrical precision components (53.32%), automotive precision components (30.82%), scrap (13.90%), precision molds (1.30%), and others (0.73%) [7]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.434 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.96%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 87.866 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.43% [8]. - The company has distributed a total of 121 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 69.026 million yuan distributed over the past three years [9]. Product Development and Market Applications - The company has developed 114 new product varieties and 191 new molds in various fields, including low-voltage distribution, industrial automation, energy storage, wind power, and photovoltaic distributed energy, which are expected to generate over 240 million yuan in annual sales after mass production [2]. - The products are widely used in the new energy vehicle market, providing components for major automotive companies, including chassis, shock absorbers, safety systems, thermal management, electronic control, and seating systems [3]. Market Position and Trends - The company is positioned within the mechanical equipment industry, specifically in specialized equipment, and is involved in sectors such as energy management, industrial automation, and new energy vehicles [8]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders was 11,900, a decrease of 32.25% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 47.59% [8].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved an 8-day winning streak, matching the longest streak of the year, which previously occurred twice [2] - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen significant gains, with industrial metals, precious metals, minor metals, and energy metals all rising collectively [3] - Analysts indicate that the driving factors behind the current non-ferrous metal market are complex, with distinct differences in the logic of various sub-sectors [3] Group 2 - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a long-term supply shortage due to low capital investment since 2015, while demand is surging from emerging industries like electric vehicles and AI [3] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with a 26.6% probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2024, which could weaken the dollar and benefit metal prices [3] - Domestic policies are actively supporting industry growth, as evidenced by the joint issuance of the "Non-ferrous Metal Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" by eight government departments, aiming for an average annual growth of 5% in the industry [4] Group 3 - The lithium battery supply chain has shown active performance, with leading stocks such as Sungrow Power, BYD, and Dofluorid rising significantly [4] - Two major cathode material manufacturers, Hunan Youneng and Wanrun New Energy, announced plans to reduce production for maintenance [5] - Other sectors, including duty-free shops, steel, and commercial aerospace, have also experienced increases [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the tin market is experiencing unprecedented structural forces, driven by supply constraints from key producing regions and a demand revolution fueled by AI, renewable energy, and photovoltaic applications [2] - Supply growth is facing rigid bottlenecks due to policy, geopolitical issues, and resource depletion in major production areas like Myanmar, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, exposing the fragility of the traditional supply system [2] - A fundamental rebalancing of supply and demand is pushing industry profits and market focus towards companies with resource and high-end manufacturing capabilities, such as China's Xiyu Co., Indonesia's PT Timah, and Huaxin Nonferrous [2] Group 2 - Tin has transitioned from a common industrial metal to a key strategic material essential for the global digital economy and green transition, with short-term prices expected to fluctuate between 330,000 and 340,000 yuan/ton [3] - The market is entering a new phase where pricing is determined by both resource scarcity and technological demand, reflecting the ongoing tension between long-term supply anxiety and emerging demand realities [3] - Multiple favorable factors are resonating in the context of macro liquidity turning accommodative and a weakening dollar, contributing to sustained high price levels for tin [2]

Group 1 - The core focus of the news is on the performance of stocks in the A-share market, highlighting the significant number of stocks that have reached their daily limit up, particularly in the packaging and commercial aerospace sectors [1][2] - A total of 96 stocks in the A-share market hit the daily limit up on December 25, indicating strong market activity and investor interest [1] - Notable stocks include Jiamei Packaging with 7 consecutive limit ups and Hexing Packaging with 4 consecutive limit ups, showcasing the packaging sector's robust performance [1] Group 2 - In the commercial aerospace sector, Shenjian Co. achieved 6 consecutive limit ups, while Chuangyuan Technology recorded 4 consecutive limit ups, reflecting strong investor sentiment in this industry [1] - Other stocks with notable consecutive limit ups include Shengtong Energy with 10 days, indicating a strong upward trend in the gas sector [1] - The data also lists various other stocks with consecutive limit ups across different sectors, including electronic components, photovoltaic, construction, and transportation, indicating a broad market rally [1][2]