成本端：铁矿石：截至2025年7月18日，澳洲粉矿日照港62%Fe价格指数759.4元/湿吨， 周环比上升3.29%，同比下降7.66%；印度粉矿青岛港61%Fe价格715.4元/湿吨，周环比上升 5.14%，同比下降1.46%；截至2025年7月11日，19个港口澳洲&巴西铁矿石发货量2498.3万 吨，周环比上升3.33%，同比上升1.01%；45个港口铁矿到港量2662.1万吨，周环比上升 7.17%，同比下降7.10%。废钢&铸造生铁：截至2025年7月18日，废钢综合绝对价格指数 2372.81元/吨，周环比上升0.03%，同比下降14.93%；铸造生铁综合绝对价格指数2788.8元/ 吨，周环比上升1.13%，同比下降16.08%。焦煤&焦炭：截至2025年7月18日，低硫主焦煤价 格指数1239.54元/吨，周环比上升6.22%，同比下降35.22%；唐山一级冶金焦汇总价格1482 元/吨，周环比上升1.51%，同比下降37.20%；230家独立焦化厂产能利用率72.9%，周环比 上升0.18pct，同比下降0.91pct；独立焦化企业：吨焦利润-43元/吨，周环比亏损减少。 价格端：截至202 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 21, 2025 - A-share market: The three major A-share indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.72% to 3559.79, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.86% to 11007.49, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.87% to 2296.88. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 128.9 billion yuan from last Friday [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 index closed at 4085.61, up 27.06 [2]. 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1. Coal Futures - Coke: The weighted coke index closed at 1614.2, up 79.5 [3]. - Coking coal: The weighted coking coal index closed at 1024.1 yuan, up 75.8 [4]. 2.2. Other Futures - Zhengzhou sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract oscillated slightly higher during the day and slightly lower at night [5]. - Rubber: Shanghai rubber oscillated slightly higher during the day and higher at night. As of July 20, the total inventory in Qingdao decreased by 0.28% [6]. - Palm oil: It showed a trend of rising and then falling, closing at 8910, up 0.6% [7][8]. - Shanghai copper: The price was boosted by policies, consumer demand, and supply concerns [8]. - Iron ore: The 2509 main contract rose 2.08% to 809 yuan [9]. - Asphalt: The 2509 main contract rose 0.27% to 3657 yuan [9]. - Logs: The 2509 contract reached a 4 - month high and then fell, with increased volume and reduced positions [9]. - Cotton: The night - session of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14165 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 31 lots [10]. - Steel: The rb2510 closed at 3224 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3394 yuan/ton, driven by policy benefits [10]. - Alumina: The ao2509 closed at 3386 yuan/ton, with the price rising due to policy and inventory factors [11]. - Shanghai aluminum: The al2509 closed at 20840 yuan/ton, supported by policies and demand expectations [13]. 3. Market Influencing Factors 3.1. Coal Market - Coke: Spot coking coal prices are rising, some coking plants may cut production, and a second price increase is expected next week. Steel mills' high profits support short - term coke demand [5]. - Coking coal: Domestic mines are复产 slowly, port customs clearance is low, and there is a risk of a large number of Russian coal arrivals in mid - to - late August [5]. 3.2. Other Markets - Zhengzhou sugar: Supported by Coca - Cola's formula change and domestic production data [5]. - Rubber: Affected by unfavorable weather for tapping in Southeast Asia and reduced inventory in Qingdao [6]. - Palm oil: Exports from Malaysia decreased from July 1 - 20 [8]. - Shanghai copper: Influenced by inflation, policies, consumer demand, and supply concerns [8]. - Iron ore: Global shipments decreased slightly, domestic arrivals increased, and steel mills' production remained high [9]. - Asphalt: The plant's operating rate decreased, social inventory was low, and demand improved [9]. - Logs: Import volume decreased, port shipments decreased, and spot trading was weak [10]. - Steel and non - ferrous metals: Supported by policies such as "anti - involution" and industry structure adjustment [10][11][13]

文字早评 2025/07/22 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 宏观消息面： 1、李强签署国务院令 公布《住房租赁条例》； 2、李家超：进一步促进股票市场流动性 吸引全球更多优质企业来港上市； 3、比亚迪：2024 年报拟 10 送 8 转 12 A 股股权登记日为 2025 年 7 月 28 日； 4、美媒爆美欧贸易谈判进展不顺 欧盟准备反击 或将前所未有启用"反胁迫工具"。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.27%/-0.51%/-1.27%/-1.89%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.89%/-1.72%/-3.76%/-5.60%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-1.16%/-2.25%/-5.07%/-7.46%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.04%/-0.04%/-0.09%/-0.09%。 策略：基本面看，二季度经济数据在关税扰动下维持韧性，6 月经济数据整体略超预期，出口受关税缓 和后外需回暖、抢出口及抢转口效应提振延续增长，此前 6 月 PMI 供需两端回升也指向 6 月经济数据不 弱，但往后看，抢出口效应可能边际弱化。资金情况而言，月中可能面临税期走款、政府债 ...

有色研究员 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375135 cheny40@wkqh.cn 专题报告 2025-07-22 不锈钢："反内卷"政策下的不锈钢市场 吴坤金 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 陈逸 近期不锈钢市场呈现企稳回升态势，主要受宏观环境改善和"反内卷"政策预期提振。从产业链 来看，上游原料端供应趋于宽松，印尼 RKAB 配额超出预期，镍矿价格松动，菲律宾供应保持 稳定。钢厂 6 月减产执行不及预期，叠加终端需求持续疲软，市场维持供强需弱格局。政策面 利好带动市场情绪回暖，推动期现价格同步上涨，但考虑到行业落后产能占比有限，不锈钢借 本轮"反内卷"进行产能出清可能性较低。建议短期内以偏多视角看待不锈钢市场，密切关注 后续政策落地与基本面变化的动态平衡。 报告要点： 有色金属研究 | 不锈钢 不锈钢："反内卷"政策下的不锈钢市场 原料端边际转弱 印尼镍矿开采商协会（APNI）秘书长 Meidy Katrin Lengkey 近日在接受 CNBC 印尼频道采访中表示， 2025 年政府批准的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade policy uncertainty is rising in the short - term, with the dollar index expected to decline; the stock market is in a capital - driven market with abundant liquidity, and the bond market will remain volatile until substantial bullish factors such as interest rate cuts materialize [15][18][21]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, power coal prices are expected to remain high in the short - term but face seasonal pressure after August; the price of some metals and energy - chemical products is affected by supply - demand, policies, and other factors [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury Secretary said trade negotiations are progressing steadily. Gold prices have risen strongly, and the short - term trend is volatile, facing a directional choice [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - The US Republican accused the Fed Chairman of perjury, and the White House said Trump may issue more tariff letters before August 1. The dollar index is expected to decline in the short - term [13][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 7 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the State Council announced the "Housing Rental Regulations". It is recommended to allocate various stock indexes evenly [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project started, and the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation. Before interest rate cuts and other substantial bullish factors, the bond market will remain volatile. It is recommended to sell long positions when the futures rebound and continue to allocate medium - term long positions at low prices [20][21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is approaching 1 million tons, and the excellent rate of US soybeans has slightly decreased. The short - term futures price is expected to be volatile [22][23]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased from July 1 - 20, while the production increased. It is not recommended to over - short palm oil. Wait for the price to fall and then consider long positions [24][25][28]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The import of syrup and premixed powder decreased in June, and the net short position of ICE raw sugar decreased. The short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 5900 [29][30][32]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily output of Indonesia's Dexin Steel exceeded 20,000 tons, and the investment in water conservancy construction increased in the first half of the year. Steel prices are strong in the short - term, but risks should be vigilant after August [33][34][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The export of corn starch decreased significantly in June. Starch enterprises are expected to continue to operate at a loss or with low profits, and the opening rate is expected to remain low [37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Wuhai is strong. The short - term coking coal futures price is expected to be volatile, waiting for changes in the supply side [38][39]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The auction volume of imported corn decreased on July 22. It is recommended to hold a small number of short positions in new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [40]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The social electricity consumption increased by 5.4% in June. The steam coal price is expected to remain high in the short - term, but seasonal pressure should be noted after August [41][42]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The investment in water conservancy construction increased in the first half of the year. The long - term upward pressure on iron ore prices is limited, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [43][44]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of Chinese photovoltaic modules decreased in June. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and the price is expected to run at a low level within the price limit [45][46][47]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The export of industrial silicon increased in June. The short - term industrial silicon is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang [48][49]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The import of copper ore, scrap copper, and refined copper changed in June. The copper price is expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to wait and see [50][52][54]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Lifezone released a feasibility study report on its nickel project. The short - term nickel price may be strong, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [55][56][57]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene decreased in June, and Yichun Yinli will conduct maintenance. It is recommended to stop profiting from long positions and consider reverse arbitrage [58][60][62]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount on July 18, and the export of lead - acid batteries decreased in June. It is recommended to buy at low prices in the short - term [63][64][65]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy and galvanized sheets increased, and the import of zinc concentrate increased in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in the near - month spread [66][67][69]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG decreased. The fundamentals are weak, and there is insufficient upward driving force [70][71][72]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Turkey will terminate the Iraq oil pipeline agreement in July 2026. The short - term crude oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range [73][74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally on July 21. It is difficult for the caustic soda price to continue rising [75][77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The upward space of the pulp price is limited due to unchanged supply - demand [79][80]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder increased. The PVC price may have limited upward movement due to inventory accumulation [81]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries decreased. It is recommended to wait and see as the asphalt price needs oil price as a driving force [82][83]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price increased slightly on July 21. The short - term PX price is expected to be volatile and strong [84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The spot basis of PTA decreased significantly. The PTA price may be strong in the short - term following the domestic commodity market [85][86]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The export of urea increased in June. The urea price may be slightly strong, oscillating around 1700 [87][88]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene increased. The short - term styrene price is affected by macro factors, and the pure benzene price is expected to oscillate and repair [89][90]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chip factories increased slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee of bottle chips by going long at low prices [90][91]. 3.2.28 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased. It is risky to short - sell in the short - term, and wait for policy guidance [92][93]. 3.2.29 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei increased on July 21. It is recommended to consider the cross - variety arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [94].

如何看待"反内卷"、"严格账期"对债券市场的影响 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 7 月 22 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T专题able_ReportType] 报告 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 3如何看待"反内卷"、"严格账期"对债券市场的影响 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 22 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [➢Table_Summary] 近期债券市场扰动因素增多，6 月经济与金融数据好坏参半，税期影响下资 金利率有所抬升，央行新闻发布会强调"已经实施的货币政策效果还会进 一步显现"，同时又对债券交易的部分规则进行修改，政策层面反内卷等 方面动作频繁，上证综指创下 2022 年 2 月 ...

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郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 黑色建材日报 2025-07-22 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3224 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 77 元/吨（2.446%）。当日注册仓单 86534 吨, 环比减少 897 吨。主力合约持仓量为 209.5912 万手，环比增加 20122 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比增加 80/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比增加 70 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3394 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 84 元/吨（2.537%）。 当日注册仓单 60454 吨, 环比减少 293 吨。主力合约持仓量为 160.0476 万手，环 ...

金十数据7月22日讯，广发证券指出，目前生猪行业持续盈利时间达14个月，反映本轮周期行业供给增 长幅度有限，预计三季度猪价有望迎来季节性反弹。在"反内卷"政策背景下，行业产能或有望逐步平 稳，中长期盈利中枢有望抬升。当前板块估值仍处于相对低位，优选成本优势的龙头企业。 广发证券：预计三季度猪价有望迎来季节性反弹 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 李卓雅 从业资格证号：F03144512 投资咨询证号：Z0022217 电话：021-68757827 邮箱：lizy@qh168.com.cn 彭亚勇 从业资格证号：F03142221 投资咨询证号：Z0021750 电话：021-68757827 邮箱：pengyy@qh168.com.cn 2025年7月22日 研究所晨会观点精萃 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 ...