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成本端支撑仍存,继续关注局势发展
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 05:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish, suggesting buying the main contract of BU on dips without over - chasing the rise; for the inter - period strategy, it is recommended to buy the spread of BU2303/2306 on dips (positive spread trading); there are no suggestions for inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2] 2. Core View - On January 6, the closing price of the main BU2603 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,156 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.22% from the previous settlement price. The position was 209,414 lots, up 6,685 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 224,437 lots, down 25,877 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were 3,306 - 3,500 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,020 - 3,190 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,100 - 3,150 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,100 - 3,200 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in North China, East China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions continued to rise, while that in South China slightly declined, and those in other regions remained basically stable [1] - Although the spot circulation in South China increased slightly due to the implementation of new contracts from Jingbo Hainan, the overall spot circulation in some areas was still tight, and the price - holding mentality in local markets was strong, so the average domestic asphalt price continued to rise [1] - Due to the uncertain situation in South America, there is still an expectation of tightened crude oil supply from Venezuela. Although refineries can find alternative heavy - quality raw materials from the Middle East, Canada, and South America in the future, the cost increase is inevitable, providing short - term support to the market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Futures market: The closing price of the main BU2603 contract of asphalt futures on January 6 was 3,156 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22% from the previous settlement price. The position increased, and the trading volume decreased [1] - Spot market: The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt varied by region. The prices in some regions rose, some declined slightly, and some remained stable. The overall average domestic asphalt price continued to rise due to tight supply in some areas [1] - Cost side: Uncertainties in the South American situation lead to an expectation of tightened Venezuelan crude oil supply. Although there are alternative raw materials, cost increase is likely, providing short - term market support [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish, buy the main contract of BU on dips, avoid over - chasing the rise [2] - Inter - period: Buy the spread of BU2303/2306 on dips (positive spread trading) [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]
焦炭期货主力合约日内涨超7%,现报1757元/吨
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-07 04:44
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that coking coal futures have seen a significant increase, with the main contract rising over 7% to a price of 1757 yuan per ton on January 7 [1]
港股异动丨煤炭股走强,易大宗、兖矿能源涨超3%
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-01-07 03:57
Group 1 - The coal sector in the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant gains, with notable increases in various coal stocks [1] - Feishang Anthracite Coal surged by 33%, while Shougang Resources and Mongol Mining rose over 5% [1] - Coking coal futures hit a limit up with an 8% increase, reaching 1164 yuan/ton, and coking coal main contracts rose over 7% to 1757 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - Feishang Anthracite Coal's latest price is 0.140 yuan, with a total market value of 193 million yuan and a year-to-date increase of 37.25% [2] - Shougang Resources has a latest price of 3.190 yuan, a market value of 16.24 billion yuan, and a year-to-date increase of 8.87% [2] - Mongol Mining's latest price is 11.570 yuan, with a market value of 11.996 billion yuan and a year-to-date increase of 9.77% [2]
快讯|焦煤期货主力合约触及涨停,涨幅7.98%,报1164元/吨
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-07 03:24
热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月7日早盘,焦煤期货主力合约触及涨停,涨幅7.98%,报1164元/吨。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑:朱赫楠 1月7日早盘,焦煤期货主力合约触及涨停,涨幅7.98%,报1164元/吨。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑:朱赫楠 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 ...
玻璃期货主力连续合约涨5%,报1136元/吨
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 14:51
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that glass futures main contract increased by 5%, reaching 1136 yuan per ton on January 6 [1]
快讯:碳酸锂期货主力合约触及涨停
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 05:32
热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 快讯:2026年1月6日,碳酸锂期货主力合约触及涨停,涨幅8.99%,报137940元/吨。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑:赵思远 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 快讯:2026年1月6日,碳酸锂期货主力合约触及涨停,涨幅8.99%,报137940元/吨。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑:赵思远 ...
生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260106
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global sugar market is in a state of oversupply, but concerns about a decline in Guangxi sugar production may support domestic sugar prices. Zheng sugar short - positions are advised to exit and wait and see [3]. - The supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, and the cost of new warehouse receipts is rising, which is expected to drive up the bottom of the futures price. However, due to high inventory and weak paper mill profits, it is difficult to form a trending upward market in the short term. Short - term operations can consider long - positions at low levels in the range [3][4]. - The spot price of offset paper remains stable, and the futures price may fluctuate with the basis. As the basis narrows, the upward space of the futures price may be limited. Consider short - positions near the pressure level [5][6]. - The global cotton supply is abundant, and the domestic cotton market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The short - term supply is sufficient, but there is a long - term support due to the expected decline in planting area. It is recommended to hold long - positions in the 05 contract cautiously [9]. - The apple 05 contract is facing a game between supply decline and the off - season of consumption, maintaining a high - level range expectation. It is recommended to adopt the idea of buying on dips [10]. - The market's expectation of a decline in jujube production has cooled, and the consumption season is approaching. Aggressive investors can consider short - term long - positions in the 2609 contract near 8900 - 9000 points [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2605**: Recommend buying on dips. The new - season output, good - fruit rate, and peak value have declined year - on - year, but the driving force for consumption growth is insufficient. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 10000 - 10200 [20]. - **Jujube 2605**: Recommend short - term long - positions at low levels. The expectation of production decline may be gradually reflected in the far - month contracts. The support range is 8500 - 8600, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [20]. - **Sugar 2605**: Recommend temporary waiting and seeing. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar - cane pressing season is underway. The market is worried about the decline in production and sugar - making rate this season, weakening short - position confidence. The support range is 5000 - 5030, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5330 [20]. - **Pulp 2605**: Recommend long - positions in the range. The futures price has risen above the price of the main physical delivery product, increasing potential delivery pressure. There is limited improvement in the fundamentals, but there is support below. The support range is 5300 - 5400, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5800 [20]. - **Offset Paper 2605**: Recommend temporary waiting and seeing. Raw material fluctuations affect the price of offset paper from the cost side, but the spot price is stable, and the futures price may operate within a range. The support range is 3900 - 4000, and the pressure range is 4200 - 4300 [20]. - **Cotton 2605**: Recommend holding long - positions cautiously. The external market is operating at a low level, the domestic market expectation is positive, and the long - term bullish expectation is strong. The futures price is expected to move up. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of apple cold storage in the main producing areas was 7.021 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 106,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 857,800 tons [21]. - **Spot Market Situation**: The price of late - maturing bagged Fuji in Shandong is stable, and the overall shipment has slightly increased. The price of bagged Fuji 65 - 70 in Qixia is 2.0 - 2.2 yuan per catty. The price in Shaanxi is also stable, and the trading volume of cold - storage merchants has increased. The price of bagged Fuji 70 in Luochuan is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty. The arrival volume in the sales area has slightly decreased, and the price is stable [21][22][23]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of one week before New Year's Day, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,898 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 37.17%. The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market supply is increasing. The overall sales in the sales area are stable, showing a pattern of "overall stability and local dynamic adjustment" [24]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of December 31, 2025, the sugar - cane crushing volume in India was 133.921 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24%, and the sugar production was 11.83 million tons. From the beginning of the 2025/26 season to December 27, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Thailand was 14.0733 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.71%, and the sugar production was 1.2793 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.83%. As of December, the cumulative sugar production in Guangdong was 86,600 tons, and the sugar - making rate was 8.72%. India's domestic sugar sales quota in January 2026 was 2.2 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with January 2025 [27]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market In November 2025, the total import volume of pulp was 3.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The total export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp was 1.6206 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 7.0%. The export volume to China was 636,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% [29]. 3.2.5 Offset Paper Market The inventory days of offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand is still weak, and the inventory pressure has increased. The operating rate is 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points, and the increase rate expanded by 0.23 percentage points [30]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market The sowing progress in the Argentine cotton area has reached about 90%, and the final planting area is estimated to be between 380,000 and 430,000 hectares. The new - cotton planting progress in Brazil is about 25%, basically the same as the same period last year, and the final sown area is expected to be between 2.05 million and 2.1 million hectares. As of now this year, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has cumulatively purchased about 2.85 million tons of seed cotton, accounting for about 20% of the total estimated output [31]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9547 | 427 | 4.68% | | Jujube 2605 | 8955 | - 10 | - 0.11% | | Sugar 2605 | 5257 | 6 | 0.11% | | Pulp 2605 | 5530 | - 2 | - 0.04% | | Cotton 2605 | 14655 | 70 | 0.48% | [32] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan per catty) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan per kilogram) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan per ton) | 5330 | - 20 | - 710 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5580 | 0 | - 870 | | Offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4450 | 0 | - 500 | | Cotton (yuan per ton) | 15615 | 30 | 888 | [39] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided, only figures are mentioned, such as the basis of Apple 5 - month contract, Jujube main contract, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - Monthly Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Prediction | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1026 | - 30 | 1313 | Oscillating strongly | Buying on dips | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 45 | 145 | - 710 | Range - bound | Waiting and seeing | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 21 | 8 | - 39 | Oscillating | Waiting and seeing | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 190 | - 15 | - 25 | Oscillating weakly | Selling on rallies | [57] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific data summary provided, only figures about the top 20 long - positions, short - positions, trading volume, etc. of each variety are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 2102 | - 18 | 148 | | Sugar | 6005 | 823 | - 4775 | | Pulp | 115576 | 11089 | - 224540 | | Cotton | 6118 | 406 | 2531 | [83] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - Related Data No specific data summary provided, only figures about option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, etc. of apple, sugar, and cotton are mentioned.
光大期货:1月6日农产品日报
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 01:23
Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans rose on Monday, supported by early-year fund buying and a general market uptrend [2][10] - U.S. soybean net sales for the week ending December 25 reached 1.1777 million tons, an increase from the previous week but below the four-week average [2][10] - StoneX raised Brazil's soybean production forecast to 177.6 million tons, while domestic protein meal prices experienced narrow fluctuations due to weak spot basis and rising inventories [2][10] Group 2: Oils - BMD palm oil increased on Monday due to a weaker Malaysian ringgit and stronger U.S. soybean oil [3][11] - December palm oil inventory in Malaysia reached a seven-year high, driven by strong production outpacing moderate export improvements [3][11] - Domestic oil markets showed divergence, with palm oil declining significantly while soybean and canola oils remained strong [3][11] Group 3: Live Pigs - Post-holiday live pig prices showed a decline, with the main futures contract dropping 1.14% to 11,660 yuan/ton [5][12] - The average daily price of live pigs in China was 12.44 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week and 0.36 yuan/kg from before the holiday [5][12] - Southern regions maintained normal supply but faced weak demand, while northern regions experienced tight supply of heavier pigs, providing some price support [5][12] Group 4: Eggs - Demand before New Year was limited, resulting in stable egg prices during the holiday period [6][13] - The main futures contract for eggs rose 1.39% to 2,992 yuan/500 kg on the first trading day after the holiday [6][13] - Current egg prices across various markets remained stable, with slight increases in some areas, while supply pressures exist despite a declining trend in inventory [6][13] Group 5: Corn - Corn prices initially fell before rebounding on Monday, influenced by negative policies regarding wheat sales [7][14] - The spot market for corn remained stable with low transaction volumes, particularly in the Northeast region [7][14] - Farmers exhibited a reluctance to sell, leading to a slow market, while expectations for increased purchasing activity are anticipated as the Spring Festival approaches [7][14]
CBOT小麦上涨,基准期约收高1.2%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 00:56
(来源:南方小麦网) 原标题:CBOT小麦上涨,基准期约收高1.2% 来源:南方小麦网 周一,芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)软红冬小麦期货收盘上涨,基准期约收高1.2%,主要反映了黑海地 区局势令人担忧。 截至收盘,小麦期货上涨1.25美分到6美分不等,其中3月期约上涨6美分,报收512.50美分/蒲式耳;5月 期约上涨5.25美分,报收523.50美分/蒲式耳;7月期约上涨4.50美分,报收535.50美分/蒲式耳。 成交最活跃的3月期约交易区间在505.75美分到514.50美分。 周一,基准期约的成交量估计为62,325手,上个交易日为56,058手。空盘量为284,684手,上个交易日为 281,528手。 (来源:博易大师) 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ...
LME锡主力合约涨幅扩大至6%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-01-05 15:56
每经AI快讯,1月5日,LME锡主力合约涨幅扩大至6%,现报42750.0美元/吨。 ...