Group 1 - Gold prices have experienced a strong five-day rally, reaching record highs during the Asian session on October 16, driven by increased risk aversion due to U.S. government shutdown and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions [1] - Silver prices adjusted to $53.10 after a spike, attributed to profit-taking, but remain resilient due to expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Forecasts suggest gold prices could reach $4,400 by the end of 2025 and peak at $4,600 by June 2026, while silver is expected to rise to $57.50 in the same timeframe [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman has called for a faster pace of interest rate cuts, supporting two more cuts within the year, while the Beige Book indicates a decline in consumer spending and weak labor demand, reinforcing expectations for monetary easing [2] - Geopolitical risks are escalating, with multiple flashpoints including U.S. actions in Venezuela, instability in the Middle East, and a nationwide blackout in Ukraine, contributing to increased market demand for safe-haven assets [2] - Despite a ceasefire agreement between Pakistan and Afghanistan providing some localized relief, global risk premiums continue to rise [2] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for precious metals is expected to continue a pattern of oscillating upward movement, supported by both Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks [3] - Gold's safe-haven and financial attributes are likely to remain prominent, while silver is anticipated to have greater elastic potential due to its industrial demand and investment characteristics [3] - Technically, gold is expected to face resistance around $4,400 after breaking and stabilizing above $4,200, while silver may test the $54 mark after surpassing $52 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guangzhou Futures highlights that ongoing uncertainties in international trade, the recent U.S. government shutdown, recession fears, and the Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle have collectively fueled strong market risk aversion, leading to rising prices for gold and silver [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - The market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to multiple factors, including international trade uncertainties and the U.S. government shutdown [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to enter a rate-cutting cycle, with a 95.67% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a 94.64% probability of a total 50 basis point cut by December [1] Group 2: Support for Precious Metals - Multiple positive factors are contributing to the strong performance of precious metals, including persistent geopolitical and policy uncertainties that drive demand for safe-haven assets [2] - The Federal Reserve's clear shift to a rate-cutting cycle is expected to continue throughout the year, improving the holding environment for precious metals [2] - Continuous accumulation by global central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, provides long-term structural support for rising gold prices [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite potential technical pullback risks, the medium-term upward trend for precious metal prices remains clear, necessitating close monitoring of core driving factors [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US has shown signs of easing tensions, with the US dollar index falling and US stocks rising. The Fed is considering accelerating interest - rate cuts. Domestically, the economy shows weak recovery, with A - shares rebounding on low volume. In the short term, the stock market is expected to be volatile and weak, while in the long term, there is value in bargain - hunting. The bond market is slightly adjusted [2][3]. - Precious metals are supported by safe - haven sentiment, and their prices are expected to continue rising due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Fed's dovish remarks, and Sino - US trade tensions [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level due to increased macro - disturbances and a tight supply at the mine end [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and favorable pattern as inventory is likely to be reduced again [8]. - Alumina prices are under pressure in the short term due to high domestic production capacity and expected arrival of imported alumina [9]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to tense trade situations, weak downstream consumption, and a cooling export expectation [10]. - Lead prices face increasing pressure as LME inventories rise, domestic supply eases, and consumption shows limited improvement [11]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level and show strong resilience due to limited improvement in the raw - material end and low LME inventories [12][13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level due to a loose supply pattern and insufficient downstream demand [14][15]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate as there is a game between bulls and bears, with inventory pressure and uncertain technical signals [16][17]. - Steel and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak market sentiment, high supply pressure, and uncertain demand [18][19]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the repeated Sino - US game sentiment and other factors [20][21]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate widely due to trade uncertainties, changes in import and export volumes, and Indonesia's plan to increase export taxes [23][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US officials responded to China's expanded rare - earth export control, and the Fed's Milan called for accelerating interest - rate cuts. US stocks rose, the dollar index fell to 98.6, the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped to 4.0%, gold prices exceeded $4200 per ounce, copper prices rose, and oil prices fell [2]. - Domestic: In September, CPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.3%, core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.3%. New social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed to the lowest point of the year. A - shares rebounded on low volume, and the bond market was slightly adjusted [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Wednesday, international precious - metal futures prices rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.48% to $4224.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.76% to $52.53 per ounce. Factors such as the extended US government shutdown, dovish remarks from the Fed, and Sino - US trade tensions supported the price increase. The market expects interest - rate cuts in October and December. It is expected that precious - metal prices will continue to rise [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper stopped falling and stabilized, and LME copper oscillated at night. The domestic near - month contract turned to a B structure, and the spot market trading improved. After the holiday, it entered a new restocking cycle. The LME inventory dropped to 138,000 tons. Due to macro - disturbances and a tight supply at the mine end, copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,910 yuan per ton, down 0.1%. After the holiday, the arrival of aluminum ingots was less, and restocking was active. It is expected that the inventory will be reduced again this week, and aluminum prices will maintain an oscillating and favorable pattern [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2797 yuan per ton, down 0.36%. Due to high domestic production capacity and expected arrival of imported alumina, alumina prices are under pressure in the short term [9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and moved horizontally at night. Due to tense trade situations, weak downstream consumption, and a cooling export expectation, zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [10]. 3.7 Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated strongly during the day and horizontally at night. With the continuous increase in LME inventories, the easing of domestic supply, and limited improvement in consumption, lead prices face increasing pressure [11]. 3.8 Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated narrowly during the day and its center of gravity moved down at night. Due to limited improvement in the raw - material end and low LME inventories, tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level and show strong resilience [12][13]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon oscillated strongly. Due to a loose supply pattern and insufficient downstream demand, industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Wednesday, carbonate - lithium prices oscillated weakly. There is a game between bulls and bears in the market, with inventory pressure and uncertain technical signals. Lithium prices are expected to oscillate [16][17]. 3.11 Steel and Iron Ore - On Wednesday, steel futures were weak. Spot trading was at a low level, and terminal demand was weak. Supply pressure increased, and steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Iron - ore futures oscillated. The supply increased, and the demand had limited upward space. Iron - ore prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [18][19]. 3.12 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the bean - meal 01 contract rose 0.17% to 2917 yuan per ton, and the rapeseed - meal 01 contract fell 0.51% to 2357 yuan per ton. Due to the repeated Sino - US game sentiment, bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly [20][21]. 3.13 Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm - oil 01 contract fell 0.47% to 9322 yuan per ton. India's palm - oil imports in September dropped to the lowest level since May, while Malaysia's palm - oil exports in the first half of October increased. Indonesia plans to increase the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15%. Palm - oil prices are expected to oscillate widely [23][24].

贵金属日报 | 2025-10-16 美国政府继续停摆 贵金属维持强势 市场分析 IMF发布最新一期《财政监测报告》指出，到2029年，全球公共债务规模预计将首次突破GDP的100%；IMF警告 称如果当前财政支出与债务增长趋势得不到遏制，全球金融稳定性可能面临严重威胁。美国政府方面，美国参议 院以51票对44票的投票结果，再次未能推进共和党的临时拨款法案；据悉，需要60票才能推进这项将为政府提供 资金直至11月底的法案。美联储方面，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰最新表示，近期的贸易紧张局势加大了经济增长前 景的不确定性，因此决策者更有必要尽快降息。 2025-10-15，沪金主力合约开于937.50元/克，收于960.34元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动2.27%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于958.00元/克，收于962.08元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.18%。 2025-10-15，沪银主力合约开于11430.00元/千克，收于11966.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动3.75%。当日成交 量为2033514手，持仓量为477807手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于1 ...

Group 1 - The global uncertainty is increasing, leading to a rise in demand for scarce and certain assets, with gold prices surpassing $4,000 per ounce [1] - The Hong Kong stock market's non-ferrous sector is leading gains, reflecting heightened risk aversion [1] - Many countries are planning to increase defense spending, which is expected to boost demand for capital goods [1] Group 2 - The US dollar continues to weaken, accelerating capital flow into emerging markets [1] - Hong Kong, as an offshore RMB center, is positioned to become a core platform for international capital diversification due to its connection with Chinese capital and low correlation with US stocks [1] Group 3 - Although there is a short-term adjustment in the Hong Kong stock market, the upward trend remains intact with a solid bottom [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, global capital is expected to flow further into the stock market, with Hong Kong stocks likely to rise in tandem, particularly benefiting the technology growth sector [1] Group 4 - The current upward momentum in the Hong Kong stock market is driven by favorable industry conditions, necessitating ongoing attention to the prosperous sectors and global industrial chain resonance [1] - Investors are awaiting more fundamental signals, with the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session's "14th Five-Year Plan" expected to influence market risk appetite [1] Group 5 - Despite potential disruptions from US tech giants affecting the trading rhythm of AI technology in Hong Kong, the acceleration of China's AI progress suggests that Hong Kong's tech leaders still have room for recovery [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to rising tariff concerns, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, and a decline in risk appetite, both gold and silver prices are on an upward trend. The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and expectations of interest rate cuts. Silver prices mainly follow gold prices, and tariff concerns may lead to an enlarged increase in silver prices [4][5]. - With Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new U.S. government will continue, and the sentiment for gold prices remains high, with prices still more likely to rise than fall. Silver prices, mainly following gold prices, are also affected by tariff concerns, which may lead to an enlarged increase [9][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: U.S. stock and European stock indices closed with mixed results. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose 0.37 basis points to 4.032%. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.39% to 98.67. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 1.48% to $4224.90 per ounce. The gold futures price was 960.34, the spot price was 957.3, with a basis of - 3.04 (spot at a discount to futures). Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2916 kilograms to 75099 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, silver prices rose significantly. COMEX silver futures rose 3.76% to $52.53 per ounce. The silver futures price was 11966, the spot price was 11930, with a basis of - 36 (spot at a discount to futures). Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 32643 kilograms to 1030429 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position increased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to rising tariff concerns, a decline in risk appetite, and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to - 2.3 yuan/gram, indicating a significant increase in domestic sentiment. The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and expectations of interest rate cuts [4]. - **Silver**: Silver prices continue to rise significantly. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded significantly to - 40 yuan/gram, indicating a significant recovery in domestic sentiment. The upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and expectations of interest rate cuts [5]. 3. Today's Focus - Multiple economic data releases and speeches are scheduled, including the Japanese central bank's market operation meeting, Japan's August core machinery orders, Australia's September employment report, the U.K.'s August GDP, and speeches by multiple central bank officials such as those from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: Bullish factors include global turmoil, a significant shadow Fed, rising expectations of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to rising inflation, and tariff concerns. Bearish factors include the end of interest rate cuts, improved economic expectations, insufficient European fiscal expansion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [9][13]. - **Silver**: Bullish factors are similar to those of gold, and in addition, non - ferrous metal tariffs support silver prices. Bearish factors are also similar to those of gold [12][13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: As of October 15, 2025, the long position volume was 212,862, an increase of 2,204 (1.05%) from the previous day. The short position volume was 80,154, an increase of 1,323 (1.68%). The net long position was 132,708, an increase of 881 (0.67%) [29]. - **Silver**: As of October 15, 2025, the long position volume was 379,089, an increase of 22,782 (6.39%) from the previous day. The short position volume was 287,130, an increase of 23,637 (8.97%). The net long position was 91,959, a decrease of 855 (- 0.92%) [32].

Core Insights - International gold prices have surged over 55% this year, reaching $4,200, with a target of $5,000 set by Bank of America for 2026 [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, as indicated by Powell, are expected to support gold prices further [2][3] - Market sentiment and external factors, such as inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions, are driving increased investment in gold [5][6] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have increased significantly, moving from the "2 era" to the "4 era" this year, with a current price of $4,200 [2] - Bank of America has raised its gold price target for 2026 to $5,000, a figure that seemed unattainable at the beginning of the year [2] - The market anticipates further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with a 97.3% probability for a cut in October [3] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Factors influencing gold prices include the direction of the US dollar index, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, global inflation, and geopolitical changes [4] - Central banks, including China's, are increasing gold reserves, providing a steady influx of capital to support gold prices [4] - Market sentiment is amplifying positive news and minimizing negative news, contributing to the upward trend in gold prices [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current gold market is nearing a 10-year bull cycle, with historical patterns suggesting potential for continued price increases [6] - The phenomenon of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) is contributing to heightened market risk aversion and weakening the credibility of the US dollar [5] - Despite the bullish trend, there is a need for caution as the gold market approaches the end of its typical 10-year cycle [6]

Group 1 - The current global financial market narrative is driven by two main themes: escalating US-China trade tensions and a clear dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy [1] - The US-China trade conflict has intensified, with both sides imposing reciprocal port fees on shipping companies, particularly targeting vessels flying the US flag [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a preference for at least two more interest rate cuts by the end of the year due to risks from a slowing US labor market [3] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding policy paths has increased due to the US government shutdown and delays in official data, with markets grappling with rising trade risks and expectations of Fed easing [4] - Gold prices are being supported by heightened risk aversion from the trade war and increased attractiveness due to rate cut expectations [4] - The US dollar is experiencing dual influences from safe-haven flows and easing expectations, which may put pressure on the dollar if rate cut expectations continue to rise [5][7] Group 3 - US equities are facing pressure from trade concerns, particularly in technology and growth stocks, with potential for prolonged market stress if tensions escalate [6] - The S&P 500 index is under scrutiny, with a critical level at 6700 points; sustained pressure below this level could trigger broader risk aversion [12] - Gold is experiencing upward momentum driven by trade tensions and geopolitical risks, with key resistance at the 4180–4200 dollar range and support at 4100 dollars [15]

Core Insights - Recent surge in gold and silver prices has led to multiple precious metal-themed funds implementing purchase limits to protect investors and ensure stable fund operations [1][2][8] Fund Purchase Restrictions - On October 15, Huatai-PineBridge Fund announced a limit on large purchases for its gold and precious metals fund, capping single or cumulative purchases at 20,000 RMB starting October 16, 2025 [2][4] - Similarly, Guotai Asset Management announced limits for its silver fund, with periodic investment caps set at 6,000 RMB for Class A and 40,000 RMB for Class C, effective October 15, 2025 [2][7] Performance of Precious Metal Funds - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged nearly 60%, while silver prices have increased over 80%, both reaching historical highs [8] - Precious metal-themed funds have also seen significant net asset value growth, with gold ETFs averaging over 50% returns this year [9] - For instance, Huatai-PineBridge's gold fund reported a cumulative return of 52.79% as of October 13, 2023, while Guotai's silver fund achieved a return of 51.78% [9] Market Dynamics - The recent price increases in gold and silver are attributed to various factors, including U.S. government shutdown risks, debt concerns, and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [8] - Long-term support for gold prices is bolstered by central banks' continued accumulation and a strategic shift away from the U.S. dollar [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices has led multiple related theme funds to implement purchase limits, with minimum investment amounts now below 10,000 RMB [2][4]. Fund Purchase Restrictions - On October 15, Huatai-PineBridge Fund announced a limit on large purchases for its gold and precious metals fund, effective from October 16, 2025, capping single-day investments at 20,000 RMB [4][6]. - Previously, on September 2, 2025, the same fund had set a limit of 50,000 RMB for large purchases [4]. - Similarly, Guotai Junan Fund announced on October 15, 2025, that it would limit regular investment amounts for its silver fund to 6,000 RMB for Class A and 40,000 RMB for Class C [4][9]. Performance of Precious Metals - Gold and silver have shown remarkable performance this year, with gold prices increasing nearly 60% and silver prices rising over 80%, both reaching historical highs [10]. - As of October 14, 2023, gold ETFs have reported returns exceeding 50%, with the Huatai-PineBridge gold fund achieving a cumulative return of 52.79% this year [10]. - The total scale of gold-themed ETFs has surpassed 200 billion RMB, with five ETFs exceeding 10 billion RMB in scale [10]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including U.S. government shutdown risks, debt concerns, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [11]. - Long-term support for gold prices is provided by central banks' continued purchases and the trend of de-dollarization [11].