周一(12月1日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4242一线上方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4250.59美元/盎司， 上涨0.50%，最高触及4256.20美元/盎司，最低下探4205.33美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向上涨 走势。 【要闻速递】 法国兴业银行利率策略师在一份报告中表示，即将公布的经济数据应会继续显示美国经济具有韧性、通 胀具有粘性，以及劳动力市场状况略有恶化；尽管如此，到2026年底，美国国债收益率仍有下降空间。 摘要周一(12月1日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4242一线上方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4250.59美元/盎 司，上涨0.50%，最高触及4256.20美元/盎司，最低下探4205.33美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向 上涨走势。 与此同时，中东局势显着升级，黎巴嫩真主党高级领导人在以色列空袭中身亡，这一事件加剧了该地区 的局部动荡。11月底普京首度公开谈和平计划，准备下周同美方"严肃"讨论。当前美俄乌会谈仍存极大 不确定性，密切关注。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 从4小时图分析，价格的主要支撑已上移至4200美元整数关口附近，该位置是判断短期强势能否延续的 首要防线。更为精确的多头 ...

"暂时来看，数据支持软着陆，这促成了感恩节前股市的持续反弹。但目前仍存在大量经济未知数，且存在经济并不像投资者认为的那 样强劲的潜在风险。" 本周的数据考验包括"网络星期一"销售数据、11月ADP私人就业数据以及供应管理协会（ISM）的制造业和服务业调查。 随着投资者为本周关键的美国经济数据和央行动向做准备，全球股市和加密货币在12月的首个交易日双双下挫，避险情绪明显升温。尽管市场对 美联储本月降息的预期依然稳固，但短期不确定性正在加剧。 12月1日周一，欧股集体低开，标普500指数期货合约一度下跌0.8%，纳斯达克100指数期货下跌1.1%。日本股市下跌，植田和男发出了迄今最明 确的信号，推动了日元走强。在他的讲话前，日本两年期国债收益率已升至2008年以来的最高水平。比特币价格大跌6%，跌破86000美元关口， 以太币跌幅超过7%。白银和铜价在上周五创下新纪录后继续攀升。 本周密集的美国经济数据，以及特朗普总统已确定下一任美联储主席人选的消息。Fibonacci Asset Management Global首席执行官Jung In Yun表 示，"在即将到来的美国数据和宏观事件之前，投资者对增加风险持谨 ...

Market Overview - Global financial markets exhibited a cautious stance on the first trading day of December, with major asset prices fluctuating around economic data and central bank policy expectations [1] - U.S. stock index futures fell between 0.5% to 1% during European morning trading, reflecting investor hesitance regarding economic outlook [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for November, released by the Institute for Supply Management, is a key data point influencing U.S. stock market movements, as investors look to gauge the health of the manufacturing sector [1] - China's manufacturing PMI for November dropped to 49.9, indicating contraction, down from 50.6 in October and below the market expectation of 50.5, following a nearly 1.5% increase the previous week [1] Currency Movements - The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar opened lower on Monday, trading in a negative range below 0.6550, influenced by the disappointing Chinese PMI data [1] - The U.S. dollar index, a core variable for cross-market interactions, fell over 0.7% last week, driven by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December continuing to rise [3] - The euro/dollar pair consolidated last week's gains, trading slightly below 1.1600, while the pound/dollar pair saw a slight decline to around 1.3200 after a 1% increase last week [4] Precious Metals - Gold emerged as one of the few strong assets in the current market, reaching a high of over $4250 during Asian trading, although it experienced a pullback during European morning trading, remaining above $4200 [4] - The performance of gold is directly related to the weakening dollar and market expectations for accommodative policies, highlighting its safe-haven and value-preserving attributes [4]

华安期货：11月28日黄金/白银高位震荡 核心逻辑： 重要信息： 美国就业等经济指标偏弱，近期美联储多位官员释放鸽派信号，支持12月降息，增强市场对政策放松预期。地缘因素带来的避 险情绪继续支撑金价。 市场展望： 高位震荡 1、COMEX黄金期货跌0.3%报4189.6美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨0.41%报53.825美元/盎司。 2、韩国央行维持基准利率2.5%不变，为连续第四次按兵不动，同时上调今明两年的GDP预期和通胀预期。 3、因感恩节假期，美国股市周四休市一日。 ...

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, reigniting a large-scale sell-off trend that had seemed to stabilize [1] - Bitcoin dropped over 6% during Asian trading, falling below $86,000, while Ethereum saw a decline of over 7%, reaching approximately $2,800 [1] - Most altcoins followed a similar trend, with Solana decreasing by 7.8% [1] Market Conditions - The cryptocurrency market has been unstable since early October, with a prolonged downtrend leading to the liquidation of approximately $19 billion in leveraged positions shortly after Bitcoin reached a historical high of $126,251 [4] - By November, Bitcoin's value had significantly decreased, with a drop of 16.7%, although it rebounded to above $90,000 last week due to reduced selling pressure [4] - Traders are preparing for further declines as a new wave of selling emerged [4] Key Indicators - Sean McNulty from FalconX noted a cautious outlook for December, highlighting minimal inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and a lack of buyers at lower prices, with a focus on the critical support level of $80,000 for Bitcoin [4] - Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, indicated that if the market value to Bitcoin holding ratio (mNAV) turns negative, the company may sell its Bitcoin holdings to pay dividends, with the current mNAV at 1.19 and holdings valued at $56 billion [4] Regulatory Environment - S&P Global Ratings downgraded the stability assessment of the largest stablecoin, USDT, to the lowest level, warning that a decline in Bitcoin prices could lead to insufficient collateral for the token [5] - The People's Bank of China issued a warning regarding the risks associated with virtual currencies, including stablecoins, emphasizing the need for government coordination to combat illegal activities, which adds to market uncertainty [5] Market Sentiment - Jeff Ko, Chief Analyst at CoinEx, attributed the pressure on the cryptocurrency market to a series of negative news, including the downgrade of USDT and the warning from the Chinese central bank [6] - Upcoming key economic data will provide insights into the short-term direction of the U.S. economy, influencing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustments [6]

Group 1 - The likelihood of a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the short term is very low due to fundamental disagreements over core interests, particularly territorial and sovereignty issues [1] - Russia demands the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from four regions and recognition of its control over these areas, while Ukraine firmly refuses to acknowledge any territorial loss [1] - Disagreements over military and alliance issues further complicate the situation, with Ukraine opposing any limitations on its military size and NATO membership, which Russia sees as essential for a ceasefire [1] Group 2 - The overall financial market continues to experience risk-averse sentiment, which is favorable for gold, as evidenced by a 0.76% increase in gold prices [2] - The U.S. economy and job market are facing challenges from government shutdowns and trade tensions, leading to increased uncertainty in monetary policy, which may drive demand for gold [4] - Historical patterns suggest that after reaching new highs, gold prices may face a 2-3 month consolidation period, with potential buying opportunities if prices drop below $3900 [5]

Core Viewpoint - International silver prices are approaching historical highs due to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and escalating geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is as high as 86.9%, with only a 13.1% chance of maintaining current rates [3]. - The FedWatch model, which predicts these probabilities, is highly sensitive to fluctuations in option prices, and the probabilities may change significantly as the December 10 rate decision approaches [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - President Trump has indicated potential ground actions against Venezuela, which could escalate tensions in the Caribbean and drive safe-haven demand for silver and gold [3]. - The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may see a turning point, as a peace plan has gained basic acknowledgment from both President Zelensky and President Putin, which could reduce global risk aversion if the conflict ends [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Silver Prices - Technically, silver is currently in a long-term upward trend, but there is uncertainty about whether the current upward wave will end soon [5]. - There is a possibility that silver may reverse after reaching the $55 resistance level, potentially forming a classic triple top pattern, which would make it more difficult to break through historical high price levels [5].

同时，俄罗斯总统普京表示和平协议"尚无最终版本"，美乌将继续磋商，但涉及领土等核心分歧仍未解 决。地缘层面呈现"进展但未落地"的状态，令避险情绪表现为"降温但未消退"，对金价形成边际支撑。 来源：黄金分析师张津镭 张津镭：感恩节流动性偏薄，黄金区间震荡待破 昨日金价整体呈现窄幅震荡，与预期一致，日内波动有限。欧盘时段在约4165附近承压，按计划布局区 间空单；美盘回落至约4150附近手动止盈，小幅落袋约10余美元。此后价格围绕该区间反复，未能走出 趋势性行情，最终收于4157美元/盎司，日线收出小阴线。 周五（11月28日）亚市早盘，金价走强，盘中一度上探至约4193美元/盎司。主要驱动来自对美联储12 月降息25个基点的高概率预期，当前市场定价约为85%—86.9%，较一周前的不足40%显著抬升，压低 美元与实际利率，抬升黄金吸引力。 故日内操作上张津镭建议： 黄金：4193-4150区间操作，止损6美金，止盈30-35美金。若是突破4200关口，可回调出空做多，依次 上看。 从技术上来看，昨日黄金一直居高震荡，呈现三角震荡趋势，本应该在假期因素下继续震荡，然美联储 降息预期打破市场的平静，小时图级别行情也 ...

Market Overview and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 187 billion, 184.7 billion, and 114.9 billion respectively, with net financing of 101.6 billion, 126.7 billion, and 114.9 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance of 206.8 billion with a net financing of 28 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds had an issuance of 384.6 billion and a net financing of 129.1 billion, while a new convertible bond was issued with an expected financing scale of 560 million [1] Secondary Market Review - The stock market experienced significant declines, while the bond market showed narrow fluctuations, influenced by factors such as liquidity volatility and rumors regarding mortgage interest subsidies [2] - The liquidity tracking indicated that funding rates fluctuated, with R001 down by 4.2 basis points and R007 up by 0.1 basis points compared to the previous week [2] Policy and Fundamentals - October fiscal revenue showed a clear divergence, with tax revenue increasing significantly while general fiscal expenditure saw a notable decline [3] - High-frequency data indicated weakening in both production and demand sides, with prices of food and production materials decreasing [3] Overseas Market - The non-farm payroll data for September showed mixed results, with Nvidia's earnings exceeding expectations, but the US stock market declined, leading to increased risk aversion overseas [4] - The 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.06%, down 8 basis points from the previous week [4] Equity Market - The A-share market weakened significantly, with the Wind All A index dropping by 5.13%, particularly affecting growth sectors [5] - Trading volume decreased, with an average daily trading volume of 1.87 trillion, down by 178.79 billion week-on-week, although there was a surge in trading on Friday due to panic selling and margin calls [5] - As of November 20, 2025, the total financing balance for the entire A-share market was 2.474 trillion, a decrease of 137.75 billion from November 13 [5] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Given the limited risk of a significant downturn in fundamentals and the central bank's liquidity support, the short-term bond market lacks a clear direction, with the 10-year government bond expected to fluctuate within the 1.75%-1.85% range [6] - As the end of the month approaches, the bond market may operate flexibly around liquidity fluctuations and the central bank's expected bond trading volume in November, suggesting a focus on short to medium-term, high-grade credit bonds to manage risk and stabilize returns [6] - The convertible bond index is expected to experience high-level fluctuations, with a preference for a risk-reward framework to navigate the current market conditions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility of the RMB against the USD is influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. monetary policy, domestic economic recovery, and global risk sentiment. The RMB is expected to maintain a stable range in the near term, with potential fluctuations based on these influences [1][3][7]. Exchange Rate Trends - As of November 25, 2025, the RMB to USD central parity rate is reported at 7.0847, an increase of 28 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating the central bank's intention to stabilize the exchange rate [1]. - The RMB has experienced significant fluctuations over the past year, with a low of 7.25 in 2024 due to a strong USD and tightening U.S. trade policies, followed by a rapid appreciation to around 7.00 due to rising risk aversion [3]. - In 2025, the RMB's exchange rate fluctuated between a "policy floor" and a "market ceiling," with a cumulative appreciation of 0.93% for the year, reflecting a narrowing volatility range compared to previous years [3][4]. Influencing Factors - U.S. monetary policy remains a critical factor, with market predictions suggesting a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which could exert downward pressure on the USD and influence the RMB [3][4]. - The pace of domestic economic recovery is also crucial, as China's GDP growth met expectations in Q3, but consumption and export recovery remain incomplete, with capital flows facing pressure [4]. - Global risk sentiment, particularly due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has increased demand for USD as a safe haven, putting additional pressure on non-USD currencies, including the RMB [4][6]. Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a range between 7.05 and 7.15 by the end of 2025, with the strength of the USD and the pace of domestic economic recovery being the primary influencing factors [6]. - If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as anticipated and the domestic economy continues to recover steadily, the RMB could potentially return to around 6.98 in 2026 [6]. - Investors should remain vigilant regarding exchange rate fluctuations, as unexpected events, such as changes in the Middle East situation or global economic uncertainties, could lead to short-term volatility [6][7].