Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising prices of precious metals, particularly gold, driven by increasing risk aversion and weakening dollar credit, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold prices due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and growing demand for gold investments [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Risk aversion has intensified, leading to a surge in precious metal prices, particularly gold [1] - The trend of weakening dollar credit is accelerating in the short term, supporting the rise in gold prices [1] - Central bank gold purchases and increasing investment demand are expected to continue driving up precious metal prices [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The long-term trend of weakening dollar credit has become clearer since Trump's administration, enhancing gold's monetary attributes [1] - The central tendency of gold prices is expected to rise, with investors encouraged to consider buying on dips and gradually building positions [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and specific gold ETFs, such as the tax-exempt gold fund ETF (518800) and gold stock ETF (517400), are recommended for investors [1]

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 29 日） | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 强势 | 强势 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 议息会议落地，避险需求推升金 价 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 弱势 | 观望 | 强预期弱现实 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：强势 参考观点：长线看强 品种：铜（CU） 核心逻辑：昨日贵金属在国内夜盘收盘后持续拉升，伦敦金由 5300 美元一线 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号 免责声明： 作者： 华泰期货新能源有色金属组 相关品种：沪金、沪银 贵金属行情火热依旧，主力合约沪金2604昨日开于1146.80元/克，收于1186.20元/克，涨幅3.58%；主力 合约沪银2604开于28601元/千克，收于29219元/千克，涨幅2.92%。 地缘上紧张情绪发酵成为贵金属短期冲高的重要催化，此外美国总统特朗普称美元表现很好，并不担心 美元下跌；且并不认为美元下跌太多；并称美元正在回归其自身应有的水平，这是合理的。受此消息影 响，美元指数一度跌超1%报95.7905，创近四年以来新低。关税方面，美国总统特朗普称，鉴于韩国方 面尚未通过该项"具有历史意义的贸易协议"，他已决定将对韩国汽车、木材、制药产品以及其他对等关 税项目的税率从15%上调至25%；或将进一步引发市场担忧，从而对贵金属价格形成向上驱动。 基于目前市场避险情绪滋生，对于黄金投资的需求或有增强，因此预计近期黄金价格或以偏强格局为 主，Au2604合约震荡区间或在1150元/克-1250元/克；而白银波动较大， ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美联储维持基准利率在3.50%-3.75%不变， 在连续三次降息25个基点后暂停行动，符合市场预期。美联储 主席候选人沃勒支持降息25个基点，与特朗普"钦点"理事米 兰立场一致。美联储在声明中指出，失业率已现初步企稳迹 象，通胀仍处于相对高位，经济前景的不确定性依然较高。 评：鲍威尔讲话表示，不相信美联储会丧失独立性，将建议下 一届美联储主席远离政治。在避险情绪推动，美元指数下跌及 美联储主席更迭等事件发酵下，黄金再度创新高，注意管控风 险，关注地缘扰动。 【短评-PTA】根据统计数据来看，现如今聚酯市场整体库 存集中在14-24天；具体产品方面，其中POY库存至14-23天， FDY库存至12-22天附近，而DTY库存则至13-25天左右。评：聚 酯库存不高。年底终端需求转淡，织机开工率稳步下滑，部分 聚酯企业开启检修，但PTA工厂亦坚持控产，社会库存延续去 化，PTA现货压力不大。近期成本端原油表现偏强，PTA绝对价 格仍主要跟随成本运行，关注原料市场走势。 投资咨询中心 2026年01月29日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com ...

（来源：新华日报） 来源：滚动播报 据新华社电 国际黄金期货和现货价格北京时间28日双双连续涨破每盎司5200美元和5300美元重要整数 关口，接连创下历史新高。 分析人士指出，受地缘政治紧张局势加剧、美国政府施压美联储降息、美国消费者信心指数跌幅超预 期、美国联邦政府可能再次陷入"停摆"等多重因素刺激，投资者避险情绪高涨，从而推动黄金价格持续 上涨。加拿大蒙特利尔银行认为，黄金等避险资产价格强劲上涨反映了全球市场格局的转变，多重不确 定性因素主导了投资者情绪。 ...

记者丨郭聪聪 编辑丨周炎炎 在本周一（1月26日）早盘突破每盎司5000美元心理关口后，现货黄金涨势不止。 截至1月28日20时左右，现货黄金报价报5260美元/盎司，单日涨幅1.52%，今日盘中更首次突破5300美元/盎司，再度刷新历史纪录。 | | 国际贵金属 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 伦敦金现 | 5260.460 | 78.712 | 1.52% | | 伦敦银现 | 112.439 | 0.531 | 0.47% | | COMEX黄金 | 5254.8d | 172.2 | 3.39% | | COMEX白银 | 111.890d | 5.933 | 5.60% | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 1174.7424 | 17.5600 | 1.52% | | 伦敦银(人民币/千克) | 25109.8006 | 118.6270 | 0.47% | 图/AI 价格上涨的背后，是结构性的驱动力在发挥作用。长江商学院会计与金融学教授、投资研究中心主任刘劲分析指出，本轮黄金上涨折射出全球投资者对国际 政治经济环境高度 ...

记者丨 郭聪聪 编辑丨周炎炎 在本周一（1月26日）早盘突破每盎司5000美元心理关口后，现货黄金涨势不止。 截至1月28日20时左右，现货黄金报价报5260美元/盎司，单日涨幅1.52%，今日盘中更首次突 破5300美元/盎司，再度刷新历史纪录。 | | 国际贵金属 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 5260.460 | 78.712 | 1.52% | 21.82% | | 伦敦银现 | 112.439 | 0.531 | 0.47% | 57.09% | | COMEX黄金 | 5254.8d | 172.2 | 3.39% | 21.30% | | COMEX白银 | 111.890d | 5.933 | 5.60% | 57.64% | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 1174.7424 | 17.5600 | 1.52% | 21.09% | | 伦敦银(人民币/千克) | 25109.8006 | 118.6270 | 0.47% | 56.15% | 今年以来，金价已累计上 ...

第二个原因：全球央行出手，这才是大招！除了老百姓担心风险，各国央行更担心风险！注意 这个数据：去年全球央行买黄金的数量创了历史新高。为什么？因为美元信用体系正在走下坡 路，美元体系的稳定性已经遭遇到了很大削弱。美国目前的财政赤字已经超过40万亿，这对于 美元的信用和币值稳定是一个潜在的巨大风险。同时，由于美债超发和美元走弱，10年期美 债"全球资产定价之锚"的属性已经大不如前，大量的避险资产开始从美债撤离。因此，在许多 投资者对美元失去信心的时候，都去购买黄金，求个安心！ 其实，还有一个深层原因，可能很多人没想到。以前黄金主要是做首饰，或者当做压箱底的传 家宝。但现在，随着AI、芯片、航天这些高科技发展，黄金成了工业的"维生素"，尖端科技对 于黄金的需求量越来越大。 记者丨 胡光旗 编辑丨洪晓文 曾婷芳 黄金冲破5000美元大关，接下来还会涨吗？ 1月28日，国际金价突破每盎司5200美元，国内金店足金甚至冲破了1600元/克！2025年，国 际金价全年涨幅70%左右，创下自1979年石油危机以来年度最大涨幅。今年以来，国际金价继 续强势上涨，2026年才过去不到一个月，就已经上涨15%左右。金价的上涨速度， ...

1. Report Summary - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [2] - The strategy views and investment logics in the report are based on publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week. Closing price data is from last Friday, and weekly changes are compared with the previous Friday's closing price [2] 2. Market Data 2.1 Commodities - Silver closed at 24965.00 with a 11.04% weekly increase; PTA at 5448.00 with an 8.57% increase; Gold at 1115.64 with a 7.74% increase; Ethylene glycol at 3997.00 with a 5.30% increase; Palm oil at 8910.00 with a 2.72% increase; Methanol at 2298.00 with a 2.64% increase; PVC at 4921.00 with a 2.46% increase; Aluminum at 24290.00 with a 1.53% increase; Polysilicon at 50720.00 with a 1.04% increase; Soybean meal at 2751.00 with a 0.88% increase; Corn at 2300.00 with a 0.83% increase; Crude oil at 441.90 with a 0.71% increase; Copper at 101340.00 with a 0.57% increase [3] - Rebar closed at 3142.00 with a - 0.66% change; Coking coal at 1157.00 with a - 1.20% change; Iron ore at 795.00 with a - 2.09% change; Live pigs at 11565.00 with a - 3.46% change; Glass at 1064.00 with a - 3.54% change [3] 2.2 A - shares - CSI 500 closed at 8590.17 with a 4.34% weekly increase; CSI 300 at 4702.50 with a - 0.62% change; SSE 50 at 3032.19 with a - 1.54% change [3] 2.3 Overseas Stock Markets - NASDAQ Composite closed at 23501.24 with a - 0.06% change; Nikkei 225 at 53846.87 with a - 0.17% change; S&P 500 at 6915.61 with a - 0.35% change; Hang Seng Index at 26749.51 with a - 0.36% change; FTSE 100 at 10143.44 with a - 0.90% change; France CAC40 at 8143.05 with a - 1.40% change [3] 2.4 Bonds - China's 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.60 with a - 1.01bp change; 10 - year at 1.83 with a - 1.12bp change; 2 - year at 1.39 with a - 1.19bp change [3] 2.5 Foreign Exchange - Euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.18 with a 1.97% increase; US dollar central parity rate was 6.99 with a - 0.21% change; US dollar index was 97.51 with a - 1.88% change [3] 3. Commodity Views Summary 3.1 Macro - finance Sector 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: 3 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logics: Global liquidity is loose; Small and medium - cap indexes receive capital inflows; The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy; China's GDP in 2025 grew by 5% year - on - year [4] - Bearish logics: Regulators signal to cool market sentiment; Near - month contracts of stock index futures have a large premium; Market differentiation intensifies; Corporate profit recovery expectations are not strong [4] 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logics: Risk - aversion sentiment rises; Domestic demand is insufficient; Allocation funds enter the market; The central bank maintains a loose liquidity environment [4] - Bearish logics: Concerns about long - term bond supply remain; The stock - bond seesaw effect may divert funds; The rebound of treasury bonds has partially realized positive factors; The "re - inflation" expectation has improved [4] 3.2 Energy Sector (Crude Oil) - Strategy views: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logics: US military deployment in the Middle East; Disruption at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield; Geopolitical events; Cold snap in Europe and America [5] - Bearish logics: Venezuela's export shift; Potential quick reversal of risk premium; High production from non - OPEC countries; High OECD oil inventories [5] 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector (Palm Oil) - Strategy views: 2 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logics: India's peak consumption season; Higher crude oil prices; Decreased production in Malaysia; Reduced domestic port inventory [5] - Bearish logics: High inventory in Malaysia; High domestic inventory; Indonesia's suspension of the B50 plan; Disadvantages in substitution [5] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector (Aluminum) - Strategy views: 2 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logics: Overseas supply disruptions; Capital inflows; Long - term demand expectations; Policy support [6] - Bearish logics: Rising domestic daily production; High prices suppressing demand; Seasonal consumption decline; Reduced speculative buying [6] 3.5 Chemical Industry Sector (PTA) - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logics: Capital inflows; Low inventory pressure of polyester products; Expected improvement in supply - demand and profit [6] - Bearish logics: Reduced production by polyester factories; High processing fees; Low profits of polyester products; Expected inventory build - up [6] 3.6 Precious Metals (Gold) - Strategy views: 3 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logics: Geopolitical risks; Central bank gold purchases; Expectations of a dovish Fed pause; Potential capital inflow into ETFs [7] - Bearish logics: Strong US economy; Technical overbought pressure; Potential "hawkish pause" signal from the Fed [7] 3.7 Black Sector (Coking Coal) - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logics: Winter storage demand; Expected supply contraction; Import disruptions; Overall market sentiment [7] - Bearish logics: Fast import of Mongolian coal; Weak demand from steel enterprises; Declining blast furnace operating rate; Lack of new upward drivers [7]

从盘面表现来看，美元在亚洲交易时段虽出现一定程度的技术性修复，但未能对黄金形成持续压制，显 示当前资金配置逻辑仍以风险对冲为核心。围绕美联储政策独立性、美国政治走向以及地缘局势的不确 定性，继续主导金价的中期定价框架。 近期，美国总统特朗普在外交与贸易领域的多项表态，使市场对全球政治与贸易环境再度紧张的担忧升 温。有关格陵兰岛主权问题的相关言论，曾引发美国与北约盟友之间的分歧，而俄乌冲突长期化的现 实，也令地缘风险溢价持续处于高位。 UNforex 1 月 28 日讯（分析师 Simon）在美联储即将公布 2026 年首场利率决议的背景下，全球市场情 绪再度趋于谨慎，防御性资金配置明显升温。周三欧洲时段前，现货黄金延续此前的强势节奏，连续第 八个交易日改写历史高位，在避险需求与利率预期共同支撑下维持高位运行态势。 不过，围绕美联储内部立场差异、特朗普可能提前公布下一任主席人选，以及白宫对货币政策的持续施 压，使本次会议的政策沟通不确定性明显放大。这种不确定性本身，正被市场持续计入黄金的风险溢价 之中。 随着金价站稳 5200 美元上方，部分机构开始提示运行节奏变化的可能性。盛宝银行指出，当前黄金的 上涨更多是 ...