Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. reported a decline in revenue and a net loss for 2024, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025 with significant profit growth [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.467 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.48% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 299 million yuan, a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous year [1]. - The loss was primarily due to an asset impairment provision of 547 million yuan, with goodwill, development expenses, and intangible asset impairments accounting for over 90% [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 82.61 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.96% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 78.43 million yuan, up 8.60% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - The company has developed a mid-term strategic plan focusing on "traditional Chinese medicine as the foundation, innovation as the lead, and concentrating on a specialized pharmaceutical health enterprise" [1]. - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical actively responded to the policy background of drug procurement, successfully winning bids for its compound thrombus-dissolving series products in 2023 [2]. - The company is building a "volume-cost-fee" collaborative efficiency model around core products to counteract the impact of centralized procurement policies [2]. Group 3: Product Development - The commercialization of innovative drug products and the market expansion of existing chemical drugs are key growth drivers for the company [2]. - The company launched the first independently developed oral antiviral drug for COVID-19, known as Lai Ruitewei tablets (brand name: Le Rui Ling®) [2]. - Unique ophthalmic drugs such as sodium nitroprusside eye drops and pramoxine eye drops have established competitive barriers in the ophthalmology field [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.017 billion RMB in 2024, a decrease of 17% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.532 billion RMB, down 10% year-on-year [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.525 billion RMB, reflecting a 37% decline year-on-year, with a net profit of 440 million RMB, down 48% year-on-year [2]. - The company's core products faced pressure due to high base effects and centralized procurement policies, particularly impacting key products like Pudilan and pediatric medications [3]. - The company has made progress in product introductions, securing four new product agreements, which are expected to support long-term growth [3]. - The company has a strong cash position with over 12.5 billion RMB in cash and financial assets, and it plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.09 RMB per share, totaling approximately 1.922 billion RMB, which is 75.93% of the net profit for 2024 [4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 7.421 billion RMB and 8.139 billion RMB, respectively, with net profit estimates adjusted to 2.263 billion RMB and 2.557 billion RMB [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 2.456 RMB, 2.774 RMB, and 3.126 RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.017 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 17% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.532 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant decline in performance, with revenue of 1.525 billion yuan, a 37% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 440 million yuan, down 48% year-on-year [2]. - The company is expected to see easing pressure from high revenue bases starting from Q2 2025, which may positively impact its core products [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.017 billion yuan, a decline of 17% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.532 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue drop to 1.525 billion yuan, a 37% decrease year-on-year, with a net profit of 440 million yuan, down 48% year-on-year [2]. Operational Analysis - The company's core products faced pressure due to high revenue bases from the previous year and the impact of centralized procurement policies. Revenue from heat-clearing and detoxifying products was approximately 2.69 billion yuan, down 20% year-on-year, while pediatric products generated about 2.25 billion yuan, down 18% year-on-year [3]. - The company has successfully introduced four new products or partnerships in 2024, including a new drug in the respiratory field and a new pediatric drug in the ENT field [3]. Cash Flow and Dividends - As of Q1 2025, the company had over 12.5 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, indicating a strong cash position. The proposed cash dividend for 2024 is 2.09 yuan per share, totaling approximately 1.922 billion yuan, which represents 75.93% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 7.421 billion yuan and 8.139 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit forecasts for the same years have also been adjusted to 2.263 billion yuan and 2.557 billion yuan, respectively. The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 2.46, 2.77, and 3.13 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 10, 9, and 8 times [5].

Group 1 - The implementation of the tenth batch of centralized procurement of drugs in Jinan has led to significant price reductions, with an average decrease of over 60% for selected medications [1] - A total of 62 types of drugs have been included in the procurement, covering conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, tumors, and cardiovascular diseases [1] - The Jinan Medical Insurance Bureau is monitoring the supply situation of pharmaceutical companies to ensure stability and diversity in the supply of procured drugs [1] Group 2 - The Jinan Medical Insurance Bureau has integrated the payment for the selected drugs into the medical insurance fund, allowing for direct settlement with pharmaceutical companies, which shortens the payment cycle [2] - The centralized procurement process has matured, with the Jinan Medical Insurance Bureau managing the entire process from procurement to payment [2] - Currently, 824 types of drugs are participating in the centralized procurement, which helps reduce the medical burden on the public while alleviating operational pressure on companies [2]

中国 证券研究 2025 年 4 月 21 日 通策医疗 - A 中国口腔医疗巨头脆弱微笑背后潜藏的不确定性：首 次覆盖，给予"减持"评级 我们首次覆盖通策医疗，给予"减持"评级和截至 2025 年 12 月的目标价 34 元。通策医疗是中国领先的口腔医疗连锁机构之一，截至 2024 年 3 季 度，公司经营有 84 家医疗机构，开设牙椅约 3100 台。我们认为口腔医 疗服务行业面临短期及长期挑战，导致盈利承压。我们的 2025/26 年每 股收益预测值分别比市场一致预期低 8%/10%。盈利增长前景弱于预期 以及对浙江省的地域依赖（收入九成来自省内）使我们很难合理化当前 估值倍数，我们认为该股股价此后将趋缓。 资料来源：风格敞口数据源自摩根大通量化与衍生品策略团队；其他所有图表中的数据均为公司数据或摩根大通估算 分析师声明及重要披露，包括非美国分析师披露，见第 30 页。 摩根大通与其研究报告所覆盖的公司开展业务，或寻求与这些公司开展业务。因此，投资者应意识到其中可能存 在利益冲突，进而可能会影响本报告的客观性。投资者在做出投资决策时，本报告之观点应仅作为投资者的考虑 因素之一。 首次覆盖 减持 6007 ...

Core Insights - In 2024, Shenzhen Hanyu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. demonstrated significant financial improvements, with a notable increase in net cash flow from operating activities and a substantial reduction in sales expenses, indicating a strategic shift in operations and financial management [1][11][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Growth: The company's revenue for 2024 reached 590.20 million yuan, a 36.82% increase from 431.38 million yuan in 2023, driven by a rise in overseas sales, particularly in peptide formulations and raw materials, with foreign revenue accounting for 55.10% of total revenue [2]. - Profitability: The net profit attributable to shareholders was -173.65 million yuan, a 66.21% reduction from -513.88 million yuan in 2023, reflecting improved revenue and cost control [2]. The adjusted net profit, excluding non-recurring items, was -239.65 million yuan, a 59.44% reduction from -590.91 million yuan [2]. - Earnings Per Share: Basic earnings per share improved to -0.20 yuan from -0.58 yuan in 2023, indicating a narrowing loss [3]. Expense Analysis - Sales Expenses: Sales expenses decreased significantly by 50.76% to 119.49 million yuan from 242.64 million yuan in 2023, suggesting a more efficient sales strategy [4]. - Management Expenses: Management expenses remained relatively stable at 122.45 million yuan, slightly down from 127.70 million yuan in 2023, indicating consistent operational management [5]. - Financial Expenses: Financial expenses decreased by 9.03% to 113.95 million yuan, with interest expenses still high at 106.50 million yuan, reflecting ongoing debt burdens [6]. Research and Development - R&D Expenses: R&D expenses were 88.01 million yuan, down 45.50% from 161.50 million yuan in 2023, primarily due to reduced clinical trial and outsourcing costs [7]. - R&D Investment: Total R&D investment was 119.49 million yuan, accounting for 20.25% of revenue, a significant drop from 44.96% in 2023, with a higher proportion of capitalized R&D expenses [9]. - R&D Personnel: The number of R&D personnel increased slightly to 196, with a stable educational structure, indicating a focus on enhancing team quality [10]. Cash Flow Analysis - Operating Cash Flow: The net cash flow from operating activities surged to 164.71 million yuan from -3.54 million yuan in 2023, marking a 4757.21% increase, reflecting improved cash generation capabilities [11]. - Investment Cash Flow: Investment cash inflow decreased by 77.51% to 51.65 million yuan, while cash outflow increased by 48.52% to 121.66 million yuan, resulting in a net cash flow of -70.01 million yuan [11]. - Financing Cash Flow: Cash inflow from financing activities rose by 10.22% to 1.53 billion yuan, but cash outflow increased by 45.08% to 1.88 billion yuan, leading to a net cash flow of -345.48 million yuan, indicating high reliance on external financing [12].

以下文章来源于36氪Pro ，作者胡香赟 海若镜 36氪Pro . 文 ｜ 胡香赟 编辑 ｜ 海若镜 来源｜ 36氪Pro（ID：krkrpro） 封面来源 ｜ Pexels 我想"再高一点" 春日，宜万物生长，包括人类幼崽的身高。 在讲究科学的时代，孩子的身高理所应当地也应遵循某种可量化的生长公式。 一个颇受大众认可的方法是，根据父母身高来预测孩子未来的身高区间。比如，男孩子的身高区间=（父亲身高+母亲身高+13厘米）÷2±7.5厘米。 公式前半部分就是所谓的"遗传靶身高"，即由遗传决定的无法改变的身高基数。而后半部分的"±7.5厘米"，则是可以通过后天努力改变的部分——只需 要"充分发挥孩子的生长潜能"。 梁宇在一家药企从事研发工作，出于职业敏感，女儿萱萱还在上幼儿园时，就开始关注她的身高问题。她坦言自己和先生都不算高，对孩子未来的身 高"没有过大期待，她个子不高，这点从小就能看出来"。 尽管如此，萱萱上大班后，梁宇还是开始给她报了跳绳兴趣班。运动、光照、补充维生素D，最初梁宇选择的是最朴素的科学"长个儿"方法。 36氪旗下官方账号。深度、前瞻，为1%的人捕捉商业先机。 如果可以，谁都希望自己的孩子 是人 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the medical device sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing normalization and deepening of centralized procurement for medical consumables, with a focus on innovation and opportunities for domestic substitution in various segments [3][5]. - It emphasizes that the collection of high-value consumables is expected to continue in a moderate manner, with a potential reduction in price suppression effects in the long term [4][21]. - The report suggests that the post-procurement era will present opportunities in sectors with lower procurement pressure and higher growth potential, particularly in areas like orthopedics and electrophysiology [5][20]. Summary by Sections Centralized Procurement Overview - The report discusses the ongoing deepening of centralized procurement for medical consumables, with significant categories like coronary stents, orthopedics, and artificial crystals already undergoing national procurement [3][11]. - It notes that the procurement rules are designed with revival mechanisms, and the expected price reductions are manageable, indicating a controlled impact on the market [3][11]. Review of 2024 Procurement - The report states that the centralized procurement for high-value consumables has been implemented with relatively mild rules, allowing for opportunities for domestic companies to gain market share [4][20]. - It outlines that the procurement rules are becoming more refined, with a shift towards national procurement from provincial alliances, breaking regional price barriers [21][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on sectors that are less affected by procurement pressures and possess innovation and growth potential, such as IVD, neuro-intervention, and peripheral intervention [5][20]. - It highlights that since 2025, the government has been releasing policies to support the development of innovative medical devices, which could lead to a better payment environment for innovative products [22][24].

没有永远的牛市，只有轮动的风口。这句话放在长春高新身上再合适不过。 中国家长对身高的追求是一大风潮，以往孩子发育期身高涨不动只能听之任之，而现在有了科技手段，没有人愿意子孙后代再矮人一头，因此产生了非常 多的打生长激素的需求。在其他方面听到"激素"二字很容易让人应激，但对"恐矮"的家长来说，这是救命稻草。 网上流传一组数据：过去35年，中国19岁青少年平均身高增幅全球领先，男孩平均长高8.1厘米，达到175.7厘米；女孩平均长高6.1厘米，达到163.5厘米。 那些身高表现不佳的孩子的父母，因而会更加焦虑。 而作为生长激素背后的重要供应者，十一年前研发出"金赛增"的长春高新，自然成为了最大的赢家之一，外界也喜欢称之为"长高"，寓意积极。 直到近期，再好的寓意也无法阻挡趋势的降临。一季度近45%的净利润跌幅，年报超43%的业绩下滑，昔日A股医药白马股、"东北药茅"开始经历近二十 年来的至暗时刻。 长春高新最出圈的一次是个暴富故事：曾经有个大妈在2008年买了5万块的长春高新，后来出国忘记了密码，直到2021年去销户时，猛然发现已经涨到了 500万。 如今业绩发布之后，这家曾凭借生长激素单品跻身千亿市值俱乐部的医 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lepu Medical reported a significant decline in financial performance for 2024, marking the worst results in its 16-year history as a public company, with revenue dropping by 23.52% and net profit plunging by 80.37% [1] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, Lepu Medical achieved revenue of 6.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.52% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 247 million yuan, down 80.37% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 221 million yuan, also down 80.28% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue decline of 9.67% and a net profit decrease of 21.44% [8] Business Segment Analysis - The three main business segments—medical devices, pharmaceuticals, and medical services—saw revenue declines across the board: - Medical devices generated 3.326 billion yuan, down 9.47% [2] - Pharmaceuticals generated 1.758 billion yuan, down 42.25% [3] - Medical services and health management generated 1.019 billion yuan, down 19.24% [5] - The decline in the medical devices segment was primarily due to a 51.31% drop in the in-vitro diagnostics business, which generated 333 million yuan [2] Pharmaceutical Business Challenges - The pharmaceutical segment's revenue fell significantly, with the formulation (generic drugs) revenue at 1.409 billion yuan, down 46.50%, and raw materials at 349 million yuan, down 14.99% [3] - The decline is attributed to reduced willingness from retail channels to stock products, influenced by recent price governance initiatives by the National Medical Insurance Administration [3][4] Impacts of Policy Changes - The implementation of the "Four Same" policy is expected to reduce price disparities between hospital and retail channels, negatively impacting retail margins and willingness to stock products [4] - The company has faced challenges in channel management, leading to reduced inventory turnover and sales [4] Asset Impairment and Goodwill Risks - Lepu Medical recorded impairment losses totaling 251 million yuan, significantly impacting net profit [6] - The company still faces high goodwill impairment risks, with a goodwill balance of 3.62 billion yuan, accounting for 14.35% of total assets [7] - Specific subsidiaries have not recorded impairment despite declining performance, raising concerns about future profitability [7][8]