风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：广予茶座 来源：雪球 01 巴芒对亏损的认知 在散户乙发言文集中 ， 他引用了老巴的一些话来说明亏损 。 比如 ， 巴菲特说 ： " 投资第一条 ： 不要亏损 。 第二条 ： 不要亏损 。 第三条 ： 记住前两 条 。 " 巴菲特又说 ： " 不能承受50%的下跌就不适合做投资 " 。 这些话在网上广泛传播 ， 尽管可能不是原话 ， 但大体是那个意思 。 从巴菲特致股东的信中 ， 看看是怎么看待亏损和波动的 。 巴菲特说 ： " 投资的第一原则是 ， 不要亏损 ， 投资的第二原则是 ， 不要忘记第一原则 。 这 就是投资的全部原则 。 我的意思是 ， 如果你以远低于它们价值的价格购买资产 ， 并且你构建 了一个组合 ， 你基本上就不会亏钱 。 " 巴菲特说 ： " 如果市场下跌 ， 伯克希尔的股票也会下跌 。 在这个房间里 ， 面对股价下跌 50%时依然积极热情的人应该不多 。 但查理不会介意的(股价下跌) 。 我们不会出售可口可乐 ， 我们不会卖掉吉列 ， 我们不会卖掉我们的生意 。 因此 ， 我们很可能会承受股价下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant development in China's futures market, providing essential risk management tools for the non-ferrous metal industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Launch - Casting aluminum alloy futures and options were listed on June 10, 2023, with futures trading starting at 9 AM and options at 9 PM [1]. - This is the first recycled metal product in China's futures market, aimed at enhancing the risk management product lineup for the non-ferrous metal industry [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The casting aluminum alloy is a primary method for recycling waste aluminum, contributing significantly to energy conservation and emission reduction [1]. - According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the production of casting aluminum alloy in China is expected to exceed 10 million tons in 2024, indicating a growing demand for effective price risk management tools due to increasing price volatility of raw materials like waste aluminum [1]. Group 3: Trading Performance - As of June 10, 2023, by 3 PM, the trading volume of casting aluminum alloy futures exceeded 57,300 contracts, with an open interest of 11,500 contracts and a transaction value of 11.011 billion yuan [3]. Group 4: Industry Leadership - The Chairman of the Licheng Sihua Light Alloy Group emphasized the need for a unified pricing mechanism in the industry, as the prices of raw materials have increasingly diverged from aluminum prices, complicating hedging efforts [1]. - The listing of casting aluminum alloy futures is expected to provide richer risk management tools, helping companies better lock in prices and enhance their competitiveness [1]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The Chairman of the Shanghai Futures Exchange noted that the introduction of these futures and options will further support the high-quality development of China's aluminum industry, enhancing operational efficiency and ecological sustainability [2].

Core Viewpoint - The training conference focused on the non-ferrous metal industry and market, aiming to enhance the integration of production and finance, improve risk management awareness, and provide support for the application of futures and derivative tools [3][12]. Group 1: Event Overview - The training conference was held on June 5, 2025, in Tianjin, organized by Jinrui Futures Co., Ltd. and Beijing Antai Technology Co., Ltd., with participation from over 60 guests from nearly 40 units in production, trade, and finance [1][3]. - The event included thematic reports and interactive discussions, with presentations from various industry experts [3][11]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Li Li indicated that basic metal prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to a calming macro risk environment and resilient economic data, although upward elasticity may be limited by demand pressures and tariff expectations [4][5]. - Jia Yelin highlighted challenges in China's copper industry, including high dependence on foreign raw materials and uneven value chain distribution, suggesting that resource development and recycling capabilities are crucial for high-quality growth [6][8]. Group 3: Risk Management - Weng Zhantu discussed the use of off-exchange derivatives for risk management, emphasizing the effectiveness of options in enhancing risk management capabilities and supporting the international development of industries [9]. - Li Zhi Mei reported that the electrolytic copper foil industry has shifted from a shortage to an oversupply, leading to declining processing fees and increased losses for companies, although there are signs of recovery in early 2025 [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The conference provided a valuable platform for discussion, injecting new momentum into the high-quality development of the copper industry, with Jinrui Futures planning to continue leveraging futures and options to help the non-ferrous metal industry establish sound risk management practices [12].

Core Insights - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on June 10 marks a historic moment for China's futures market, filling a gap in the domestic recycled metal derivatives market and providing new risk management tools for aluminum industry chain enterprises [1][3]. Market Performance - The first trading day of casting aluminum alloy futures saw an overall upward trend, with the main contract AD2511 opening at 19,400 CNY/ton and closing at 19,190 CNY/ton, an increase of 825 CNY/ton or 4.49% from the listing benchmark price of 18,365 CNY/ton [3]. - The trading volume reached 57,300 contracts with a transaction value exceeding 11.011 billion CNY, and the open interest stood at 11,500 contracts, indicating strong market interest [1][3]. - The main contract AD2511 was particularly active, with a single-day transaction of 52,300 contracts and a transaction value of 10.1 billion CNY, reflecting high market engagement [3]. Industry Participation - A total of nine well-known enterprises actively participated in the trading on the first day, including Lichong Sihua Light Alloy Group, Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Alloy Co., and others, demonstrating strong interest from the industry [4]. - The participation of these companies highlights the urgent demand for risk management tools in the aluminum alloy trade sector, as they are sensitive to price fluctuations and have pressing hedging needs [4]. Risk Management Framework - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures improves the hedging effectiveness compared to previous aluminum futures, forming a comprehensive risk hedging system alongside alumina futures and Shanghai aluminum futures [4]. - This new tool allows trading companies to stabilize their operations and better serve their upstream and downstream clients by providing diverse pricing and risk management services tailored to various market conditions [4].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on June 10 marks a significant milestone for China's futures market and the recycling metal industry, enhancing risk management and promoting high-quality development in the aluminum sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Launch Details - The first trading of casting aluminum alloy futures occurred at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with seven contracts listed at a benchmark price of 18,365 yuan/ton [1]. - On the first trading day, a total of 57,300 contracts were traded, amounting to 11.011 billion yuan, with an open interest of 11,500 contracts [1]. - The main contract, AD2511, closed at 19,190 yuan/ton, reflecting a 4.49% increase [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is seen as a key development in integrating finance with the non-ferrous metal industry, enhancing China's international influence in aluminum production [1][2]. - The launch is expected to provide companies with effective risk management tools, addressing previous shortcomings in hedging against price fluctuations in aluminum alloys [2]. - The listing has garnered positive responses from industry players, with several well-known companies actively participating in the trading [2]. Group 3: Role of Intermediaries - Futures companies are positioned to offer comprehensive services, from standardized contracts to customized solutions for risk management in the aluminum industry [3]. - The ability to design personalized products based on standardized contracts will enhance the precision of risk management services for enterprises [3]. - Futures companies can facilitate industry participation in the futures market through simple methods, leveraging their risk management subsidiaries [3].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant step in providing comprehensive risk management services for industry chain enterprises, supporting the green, low-carbon, and high-quality development of the aluminum industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The first day of trading for casting aluminum alloy futures saw a total of 57,300 contracts traded, with a transaction value of 11.011 billion yuan, and an open interest of 11,500 contracts [1][2]. - The benchmark price for the first batch of contracts was set at 18,365 yuan/ton, with the main contract opening at 19,400 yuan/ton and closing at 19,190 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 825 yuan/ton, or 4.49% from the benchmark price [2][3]. - Analysts noted that the overall performance of the casting aluminum alloy futures on the first day met market expectations, with prices rising across the board [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Participation - A total of nine enterprises actively participated in the trading of casting aluminum alloy futures, including Zhejiang Runjie Trade Development Co., Ltd., and others, indicating strong interest from industry players [4]. - The collaboration between companies like Dongzheng Futures and Zhejiang Runjie has been highlighted as crucial in facilitating the successful trading of the first batch of contracts, with a focus on identifying and managing hedging needs [4][5]. - The active participation of industry clients reflects their recognition of the new product, with futures companies providing essential risk management and investment tools to support these enterprises [5].

"当前，上海正在加快建设国际金融中心，不断强化金融市场功能，支持上期所建设成世界一流交易 所，以更齐全的金融产品体系赋能新质生产力发展，加快建设人民币金融资产配置和风险管理中心，更 好服务国家战略、维护国家安全。"葛平说。 葛红林表示，再生有色金属是保障我国乃至全球有色金属资源安全、推动绿色低碳转型的关键力量。 2024年，我国再生铜铝铅锌产量达1915万吨，占十种有色金属产量的24%，减少二氧化碳排放1.7亿 吨。其中，再生铝产量已突破1000万吨，碳减排贡献率超过85%，是绿色低碳循环发展的关键领域。 "铸造铝合金期货及期权上市，对提升我国铝产业国际影响力、助力产业构建完善的风险管理体系、满 足企业多元化风险管理需求、推进再生铝高质量发展有重大意义。"葛红林表示，有色金属工业协会将 鼓励和引导企业积极参与期货交易、用好期货工具、做好风险管控。 田向阳表示，我国期货市场首个再生商品品种——铸造铝合金期货及期权的推出，是我国期货市场以绿 色金融服务新质生产力发展的又一里程碑。上期所铝期货已上市运行30余年，2020年以来又先后上市铝 期权、氧化铝期货和期权。实践中，铝系列期货和期权以紧密的产融协同为我国铝工业 ...

今年以来，受原油与煤炭价格下跌、中美关税争端等因素影响，乙二醇价格从4800元/吨跌至4150元/吨 附近。在此背景下，部分乙二醇企业却能"稳坐钓鱼船"，甚至逆势盈利，秘诀何在？答案是：期现结 合、双轮驱动。 市场人士认为，当前期货及衍生品市场正处在高质量发展阶段，实体企业应与时俱进学习运用金融工 具，解决自身生产经营中的痛点、难点，匹配采销过程中的风险敞口。合理运用场内外期货及衍生品， 有利于企业摆脱困境、赢得主动。 数据显示，截至2024年年底，国内乙二醇年产能为2822.5万吨，较2019年的1063万吨上升165.5%，其中 煤制乙二醇产能约1048万吨，占比约37%。2024年，我国乙二醇产量约1950万吨，同比增长16.2%。随 着国内产能投放进度加快，我国乙二醇进口量逐年减少，进口依存度从2019年的56.5%降至2024年的 25.3%。 浙商期货能化研究员曾滢月告诉期货日报记者："行业产能快速增加，副作用也非常明显，2024年乙二 醇价格战打到'白菜价'，油制企业每吨亏1000元，煤制企业每吨亏300元，只有'成本控'能勉强活着。" 市场人士建议，相关企业不能只盯着当前价格，要学会用期货"望 ...

南华原木产业风险管理日报 2025年6月10日 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 原木价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 740-800 | 16.28% | 67.4% | source： 南华研究 原木套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | | | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 原木进口量偏高库存 高位，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企 业的库存情况，做空原木期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | lg2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 800-785 9.5-14 | | | | | 买入看跌期权防止价格大跌，同时卖 出看涨期权降低资金成本 | lg2507P ...

棉花产业风险管理日报 2025/6/10 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 棉花近期价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 12800-13700 | 0.065 | 0.0734 | 【利空解读】 source： 南华研究,同花顺 棉花风险管理策略建议 | | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例 | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | | 库存 管理 | 库存偏高，担心棉价下 跌 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存 情况，做空郑棉期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的 | CF2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 13600- 13800 | | | | | 多 | 生产成本 | | | | | | CF509C13800 | | | | ...