Core Insights - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Hong Kong increased from 3.7% to 3.9% between June-August 2025 and July-September 2025 [1] - Total employment decreased by approximately 6,100 individuals, from 3,680,600 to 3,674,500, while the total labor force fell by about 1,500, from 3,831,600 to 3,830,100 [1] - The number of unemployed individuals rose by around 4,600, from 151,000 to 155,600, and the underemployment figure increased by 600, from 59,400 to 60,000 [1] Industry Analysis - Several major economic sectors experienced an increase in unemployment rates, particularly in social work and construction, while the restaurant sector remained stable [1] - The financial and healthcare sectors saw a decline in unemployment rates during the same period [1] - The Secretary for Labour and Welfare noted that while the economy is expected to continue expanding, certain industries may still face employment challenges due to economic transformation and external uncertainties [2]

Economic Overview - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the national economy maintained a stable and progressive trend in the first three quarters of 2025, with effective policies supporting employment and economic stability [3]. GDP Performance - The GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices [5][6]. Sector Contributions - Agricultural value added grew by 3.6% year-on-year [6]. - Industrial value added for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.2% year-on-year [6]. - The service sector's value added rose by 5.4% year-on-year [6]. Consumer and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 365.877 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [7]. - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371.535 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.5%. However, excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment grew by 3.0% [7]. Trade and Price Levels - The total value of goods imports and exports reached 336.078 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year [8].

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth to rise from 3% to 3.2% by 2025 [1] - There are increasing signs that the negative impacts of protectionist measures are becoming evident, with high uncertainty in trade policies expected to persist through 2025 and 2026 [1] - The IMF forecasts Iran's economic growth rate to reach 0.6% in 2025, with an inflation rate of 42.4% and an unemployment rate of 9.2% [1] Group 2 - The World Bank recently estimated Iran's economic growth rate for this year to be -1.7% [1]

| 服务业 | | 5.4% | | --- | --- | --- | | 増加值 | | | | 固定资产 | | -0.5% | | 投资(不含农户) | | | | 房地产 | | -13.9% | | 开发投资 | | | | 新建商品房 | | -5.5% | | 销售面积 | | | | 社会消费品 | 3.0% | 4.5% | | 零售总额 | | | | 货物进出口 | 8.0% | 4.0% | | 总额 | | | | 全国城镇调查 | 5.2% | 5.2% | | 失业率 | (绝对值) | (平均值) | | · CPI | -0.3% | -0.1% | | · PPI | -2.3% | -2.8% | | 居民人均 0 | | 5.2% | | 可支配收入 | | | 10月20日上午，国家统计局发布前三季度国民经济运行数据： GDP：前三季度国内生产总值1015036亿元，同比增长5.2%； 规模以上工业增加值：9月同比实际增长6.5%，环比增长0.64%；1 - 9月同比增长6.2%； 社会消费品零售总额：9月总额41971亿元，同比增长3.0%；1 - 9月增长4.5 ...

Economic Growth - China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 5.2% [2] - China's GDP for the first three quarters totaled 1015036 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% at constant prices [1] Industrial Production & Retail Sales - China's industrial added value above designated size in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.0% [2] - China's total retail sales of consumer goods in September increased by 3.0% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [2] Employment & Income - China's surveyed urban unemployment rate in September was 5.2%, lower than the expected 5.3% [2] - The national per capita disposable income of residents in the first three quarters was 32509 CNY, a nominal increase of 5.1% year-on-year and an actual increase of 5.2% after deducting price factors [1] - The average weekly working hours for employees of enterprises nationwide was 48.6 hours [1] Fixed Asset Investment - China's fixed asset investment in urban areas from January to September increased by -0.5% year-on-year, lower than the expected 0.1% [2]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) is experiencing a downward trend, currently at 0.6469, with a decline of 0.23% [1] - Australia's unemployment rate surged to 4.5% in September, the highest in four years and exceeding the market expectation of 4.3%, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia on November 4 [1] - The rise in unemployment has led to a decrease in the three-year government bond yield, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Technically, the AUD/USD exchange rate has slightly recovered from a seven-week low of 0.6441, but the overall trend remains weak, with resistance levels at 0.6515 and 0.6523 [2] - A long-legged doji candlestick pattern has formed, providing a brief respite for bulls, yet the price remains constrained by the 10-day, 21-day, and 55-day moving averages [2] - The monthly relative strength index continues to show weakness, indicating that the overall downward pressure on the AUD is still in place, requiring a breakthrough of moving average resistance for upward movement [2]

Economic Growth - The UK economy experienced a slight recovery in August, with GDP increasing by 0.1% after a 0.1% decline in July, aligning with economists' median expectations [1][3] - Manufacturing output rose by 0.7%, exceeding expectations, while the services sector remained stagnant for two consecutive months [1][3] Sector Performance - In the three months leading up to August, the UK GDP grew by 0.3%, indicating potential growth for the third quarter [3] - The manufacturing sector saw growth in 8 out of 13 sub-sectors, with the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector contributing the most at a growth rate of 3% [6] - Despite an increase in retail sales, the services sector failed to expand, with declines noted in wholesale, entertainment, and transportation sectors [6] Trade Dynamics - In August, UK goods imports remained flat, while exports decreased, with a notable decline of approximately £700 million in exports to the United States [7]

Core Insights - Australia's unemployment rate increased from 4.3% to 4.5% in September 2025, marking the highest level since November 2021 [1] - The number of employed individuals rose by 0.1% month-on-month and approximately 1.3% year-on-year, reaching 14.64 million [1] - The number of unemployed individuals increased by about 5.2% month-on-month and 12.6% year-on-year, totaling 684,000 [1] Employment Data Summary - Seasonally adjusted employment figures show a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.5%, totaling 14.647 million [1] - The number of unemployed individuals rose by about 0.6% month-on-month and 8.2% year-on-year, amounting to 661,500 [1] - Monthly working hours increased by 0.5% month-on-month, while the underemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 5.9% [1] Labor Participation Insights - The labor participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 67%, slightly below the historical high of 67.2% recorded at the beginning of the year [1] - In September, there was an addition of 34,000 unemployed individuals and an increase of 15,000 employed individuals [1]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has fallen below the 0.6500 mark against the US dollar, currently at 0.6489, reflecting a decline of 0.30% [1] - Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, igniting expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [1] - Employment data showed an increase of 14,900 jobs in September, which was below the market expectation of 20,000, while the previous month's job loss was revised to a decrease of 11,800 from 54,000 [1] Group 2 - RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter's cautious remarks provided some support for the AUD, noting that recent data was slightly better than expected and that third-quarter inflation might exceed forecasts [1] - The RBA's September monetary policy meeting minutes indicated that board members believe the current policy is still somewhat restrictive, but the extent is difficult to determine [1] - Economic risks remain, with weak employment and wage growth contributing to subdued consumer spending [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD remains in a downward channel, with bearish sentiment persisting [2] - The potential downside target for the AUD/USD is around 0.6440, and a break below this support could lead to testing the four-month low of 0.6414 and the five-month low of 0.6372 [2] - On the upside, initial resistance is at the 9-day exponential moving average of 0.6527, followed by the 50-day moving average at 0.6551, with a breakthrough potentially improving short- and medium-term price momentum [2]

Group 1 - Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, the highest level in four years, due to a decrease in new job positions and an increase in job seekers, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [1] - The number of new jobs added in September was only 14,900, below the market expectation of 20,000, while the labor force participation rate increased to 67% [1] - The latest employment data has led to a significant drop in Australian government bond yields, falling by up to 13 basis points, the largest single-day decline since May, and the Australian dollar decreased by up to 0.5% [1] Group 2 - The widespread application of artificial intelligence (AI) tools is subtly driving job losses, with economists warning that the impact of AI on the global labor market is expanding [2] - HSBC's global economist noted that AI seems to be exerting downward pressure on hiring activities, and during economic slowdowns, companies may accelerate cost-cutting measures, which could lead to a broader impact on the labor market [2] - KPMG's chief economist suggested that the Reserve Bank of Australia should consider lowering cash rates to stimulate investment and household spending, thereby supporting the labor market [2] Group 3 - The Reserve Bank of Australia aims to maintain the unemployment rate around 4% while controlling inflation, with the current monetary policy described as "slightly tight" [4] - The upcoming consumer price index (CPI) data for the third quarter will be crucial for the monetary policy decision in November, with traders expecting a probability of over 70% for a rate cut next month [4] - Most economists surveyed predict that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower the benchmark interest rate to 3.35% [4]