最近跟着某大V买入两倍做空恒生科技ETF 07552作为港股的对冲仓位。对于杠杆ETF的磨损成 本之前有所耳闻，但具体多大没有量化过。今天拿两倍做空恒科和做多恒科画了一张图，简直震 惊了。 上图是17年至今这两个ETF的数据，发现平均值（绿线）是先跌后涨的，趋势基本和做多恒指 03037是一致的，这难道说明1倍做多恒指跟踪得好点，1倍做空恒指跟踪得差一点？ 最后，本文的目的是，提醒一下买带杠杆ETF的同学：阿祖，醒醒吧，别买了，损耗太大了。 拉格纳罗斯 美股的三倍做多纳指，tqqq。很多大v都在推，用来对冲之类的。但我就信一条。纳指这么大牛 市。他是三倍杠杆，市值竟然只有30亿。看曲线，也没看出来纳指的三倍牛市，咱也不懂，咋也 不问。但咱知道，不懂不做。 这次惊人地发现，1倍做空恒指07300和1倍做多恒指03037的每日平均值居然是上升的，由11.4 涨到了12.9，涨幅为13%，好嘛，买点做空的ETF对冲，除了实现对冲，该做空产品未来期望居 然还是涨的。 如果完全没有磨损的话，那么两倍做空07552和两倍做多07226的平均值那条线（即上图绿 线），就应该是一条笔直的水平线，但是过去一年，这个平均值居然由 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved record Q2 revenue of $318.9 million, marking a 12% year-on-year increase [5] - PLO (Pawn Loan Outstanding) grew 15% to a Q2 record of $271.8 million [5] - EBITDA increased by 23% to $45.1 million, with diluted EPS growth of 21% to $0.34 [5][9] - Cash balance increased to $505.2 million from $174.5 million last quarter, primarily due to $300 million debt financing [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Merchandise sales grew by 8% to $177.4 million, with gross profit reflecting a 10% increase to $185 million [9][15] - U.S. Pawn segment revenue increased by 7% to $221.4 million, with earning assets growing by 21% [16] - Latin American segment total revenues increased by 25% to $97.5 million, with earning assets increasing by 28% [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. accounted for 72% of gross profit during the quarter [10] - In Latin America, PLO growth was 17%, with a 19% increase in PSC (Pawn Service Charges) [23] - The average loan size in the U.S. increased by 15%, driven by higher prices of jewelry and general merchandise [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to strengthen core pawn operations through investments in technology and customer experience [11] - The Easy Plus Rewards program saw membership grow by 34% to 6.2 million, accounting for 77% of all transactions [11] - The company is focused on disciplined M&A strategies, particularly in the U.S. and Latin America, to support long-term growth [27][52] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that macroeconomic pressures are leading consumers to seek short-term cash solutions [6] - The company remains committed to maintaining high levels of cash liquidity while pursuing growth opportunities [8] - Management expressed confidence in sustaining strong momentum through 2025, despite economic uncertainties [27] Other Important Information - The company opened nine new stores in Latin America and consolidated nine stores in Mexico to improve operational efficiency [7] - The introduction of a long-term layaway option resulted in a 15% increase in new layaways during the quarter [12] - The company received a first-time credit rating of BA1 from Moody's, reflecting its strong financial position [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tax season on PLO - Management indicated that the 9% sequential decline in PLO is similar to last year and may represent a new normal due to rising consumer costs [32][33] Question: Effects of tariffs on pricing and customer demographics - Management noted that while tariffs take time to impact stores, inflationary effects on general merchandise are evident, with a shift towards higher loan sizes [34][35] Question: Merchandise margin performance - Management explained that the focus is on maximizing gross profit, even if it results in lower merchandise margins in the short term [38][39] Question: Plans for excess cash post-debt offering - Management emphasized a balanced approach to scaling the business while maintaining a conservative balance sheet, with a focus on disciplined M&A [42][44] Question: Latin American acquisition strategy - Management highlighted strong momentum in Latin America and a disciplined approach to pursuing acquisition opportunities in the region [50][52] Question: Impact of layaway programs and gold prices - Management clarified that the benefits from layaway programs will materialize in future quarters, while gold prices are positively impacting average loan sizes [58][66] Question: Update on MaxPawn's performance and expansion - Management expressed satisfaction with MaxPawn's growth and indicated plans for disciplined expansion into new markets [68][70] Question: Performance of the founders group - Management reported strong performance from the founders group, with growth in lending and sales [77] Question: Future growth vehicle plans - Management confirmed that the off-balance sheet structure is specifically designed for the Simple business, with ongoing assessments for future collaboration [80]

中央政治局会议提出设立"服务消费与养老再贷款"，是我国在复杂经济形势下的主动作为，其施策核心 是通过金融杠杆撬动服务消费潜力，实现稳增长、调结构、惠民生的多重目标。政策实施需把握"精准 滴灌"与"系统协同"原则，做好以下"三个统筹"。 一是统筹好工具创新与政策协同。合理确定服务消费再贷款的额度、利率。参考普惠养老专项再贷款案 例，我国服务消费与养老再贷款，央行会以1.75%利率向商业银行提供再贷款资金，叠加财政贴息，相 关企业实际融资成本可降至2%~3%，形成"低成本资金—服务供给扩容—消费需求释放"的传导链条。 同时，需要配合政府债券的发放，科学决策主要再贷款的施策领域。结合目前我国的超长期特别国债的 发行领域，服务消费领域的再贷款，可以考虑重点投向养老社区、文旅设施、体育赛事等"两新"领域。 以金融杠杆撬动服务消费复苏，既有发挥消费对经济增长的引擎动能的重要意义，也有全方位扩大国内 需求的现实必要性。 首先，服务消费的提升与消费结构的升级是必然趋势，服务消费的作用越来越凸显。国际经验表明，当 人均GDP达1.5万美元后，服务消费占比将显著提升。2024年，我国人均GDP为1.38万美元，服务消费将 进入快 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that institutional investors are reducing their allocation to credit bonds while increasing their holdings in policy financial bonds and government bonds in the first quarter of 2025 [2][3]. - The total management scale of actively managed bond funds reached 89,902.19 billion, a decrease of 3.95% compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The issuance of new actively managed bond funds in the first quarter totaled 797.09 billion, down approximately 175.69 billion from the previous quarter [2]. Group 2 - The proportion of credit bonds decreased from 54.63% to 53.12% compared to the previous quarter, indicating a shift in investment strategy [3]. - The median duration of pure bond funds slightly decreased from 2.30 years to 2.22 years, while the leverage ratio for "fixed income+" funds showed a downward trend [3]. - The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern leading up to the May Day holiday, with cautious trading attitudes prevailing [4]. Group 3 - The analysis suggests that long-term interest rates are likely to continue fluctuating widely throughout the year, influenced by factors such as fiscal stimulus [5]. - The performance of certain medium to long-term pure bond funds has been strong, with some funds achieving notable weekly returns [4].

封面新闻记者 朱宁 4月27日，比特币跌破94000美元，Coinglass网站数据显示，在过去24小时内，加密货币共有超10万人爆仓。拉长时间线来说，今年比特币行情跌宕起伏， 走出一波过山车行情——1月20日，最高创下11万美元历史新高；但之后一路下跌，4月7日最低到74457美元，最大跌幅超过32.3%。就当空头们准备庆祝 时，比特币却又触底反弹，持续上涨至95000美元左右震荡。 比特币走势 不过，本轮比特币的走势和此前略有不同。过往，比特币和美股基本同跌同涨，但最近几周美股市场都处于关税带来的恐慌和震荡之中，标普500近一个 月回调3.66%，但比特币的涨势坚挺，月涨幅达8.31%。而在道指、纳指于近期上行震荡的时候，比特币却出现下行趋势。 从分析师的角度来看，这一波回调可能是市场重新平衡的结果，尤其是交易员们在年底前的仓位调整。加密基金经理Merktle Tree Capital的首席投资官 Ryan McMillin表示，此次比特币价格的下跌是由多个因素共同作用的。McMillin指出，价格下跌的部分原因与交易员在心理价位（如100,000美元）处的 卖盘壁垒有关，尤其是在特朗普当选总统后的爆炸性 ...

Core Viewpoint - 3M is showing underlying progress in its operations, which enhances the stock's upside potential, especially if the trade conflict is resolved [1] Group 1: Earnings Performance - 3M's first-quarter organic sales growth was 1.5%, below the initial guidance of approximately 2.1%, but adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.88 exceeded the guidance of about $1.71 [3] - Management indicated that the company is trending towards the lower end of its full-year organic sales growth guidance of 2% to 3% but sees potential upside in margin and earnings [4][6] Group 2: Operational Improvements - The company launched 169 new product introductions (NPIs) in 2024, a 32% increase from 2023, with 62 NPIs launched in the first quarter alone, and plans to launch 215 NPIs through 2025 and 1,000 over the next three years [9] - On-time in-full (OTIF) delivery improved to 89% from 85.5% in the same quarter of 2024, with a target of 90% by year-end [11] - Operating equipment efficiency (OEE) rose to 58% from 54% in the previous quarter, indicating ongoing potential for value addition for shareholders [12] Group 3: Market Challenges and Outlook - 3M faces headwinds in the auto industry and consumer electronics sectors, with lowered auto build estimates for 2025 posing challenges [13] - Despite these challenges, there is potential for sales upside if the economic outlook improves due to de-escalation of trade conflicts [15]

最近美国国债市场波动较大，尤其是长端美债，如 10 年期美国国债利率水平 在前期经历了单周大幅上行之后，仍维持在较高的波动位置。相比之下，两年 期及更短期限的美债利率在前期上行后已回落至相对更低水平。衡量美国国债 波动率的 VIX 指数也显示出最近美债波动率有所抬升。 美债问题的破局及影响 20250126 摘要 • 美国国债利率快速上行受微观交易行为和宏观因素双重驱动。微观层面， 关税政策超预期和对特朗普政策的担忧引发流动性恐慌，导致国债抛售。 宏观层面，美元走弱反映市场对美元体系瓦解和美国主权债务风险的担忧， 美国主权信用违约掉期利差大幅抬升。 • 美国财政扩张对主权信用产生显著影响。疫情期间财政赤字高企，美联储 宽松政策掩盖了风险。2022 年后，美联储紧缩政策导致付息成本压力显 现，侵蚀主权信用，削弱财政效率。当前美国财政赤字率远超国际警戒线， 且持续扩张。 • 美国国债付息成本近期显著上升。低利率时期发行的国债陆续到期，再融 资导致存量国债平均付息成本中枢上移。联邦政府净利息支出占比持续上 升，超过赤字和财政收入的 20%。2025 年美国政府再次触及债务上限， 加剧了债务压力。 • 投资者对美债持 ...

Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - High-growth companies in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery platforms are expected to deliver significant returns, with business volume and revenue growth around 20% and operating profits increasing substantially [3][4] - As competition stabilizes, operating leverage will lead to greater growth in operating profits, with companies like Manbang Group and Meituan projected to see substantial profit increases in 2024 [4][5] - The rising penetration rates in ride-hailing, digital freight, and instant delivery are expected to drive revenue and gross profit growth of approximately 30% for leading companies in 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Growth Logic - Revenue growth and declining expense ratios are key drivers for profit growth, with companies like Manbang Group benefiting from rapid revenue increases and improved monetization rates [14][17] - The report highlights that the faster the revenue growth and the quicker the expense ratio declines, the more significant the profit growth potential [16] High Growth in Leading Companies - In 2024, leading companies in ride-hailing, freight platforms, and instant delivery are expected to see high growth in operating profits, with Didi Chuxing turning profitable [19][23] - The operating profit growth rates for these companies are significantly higher than their gross profit growth rates, indicating effective cost management [23] Operating Leverage - The report notes that the increase in operating profit growth is due to a decrease in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, showcasing the effect of operating leverage [28][31] - As leading companies solidify their market positions, their expense ratios are expected to stabilize, further enhancing profit margins [28][46] Revenue and Market Penetration - The revenue growth for leading companies is primarily driven by increases in business volume, with many companies outpacing industry growth rates [39][41] - The rising market penetration rates in various segments, such as ride-hailing and digital freight, are contributing to revenue growth exceeding overall market growth [44] Monetization Rates - Manbang Group's monetization rate is on the rise, which is expected to accelerate revenue growth compared to competitors whose monetization rates are stabilizing [49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [8][19]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in Q1 2025, with a year-over-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 47% and a 28% increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from operational leverage as it continues to expand its network of learning centers, which increased from over 240 to over 300 in 2024, covering more than 100 cities [4][5]. - The education sector remains in a growth phase, particularly for high school education, with a projected growth period of about ten years due to the stable population of high school-age students [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the full year 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 2.8 billion yuan, a 26% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of 180 million yuan, a 17% increase [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 35%, slightly down by 1.9 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to the costs associated with network expansion and an increase in teaching staff [1]. - The company has a target net profit of 261.35 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a 45.45% increase compared to 2024 [7][14]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced a share buyback plan of 110 to 150 million yuan, with a maximum price of 66.8 yuan per share, aimed at equity incentives and potential cancellation of shares [3][6]. Industry Context - The company is focusing its resources on educational training and vocational education, having terminated a project related to higher vocational education to enhance operational efficiency [6]. - The competitive landscape favors leading national brands in the education sector, which are expected to benefit from their established brand strength during the recovery phase of the industry [5][6].

证券研究报告 2025年04月27日 行业报告 | 行业专题研究 分析师 陈金海 SAC执业证书编号：S1110521060001 联系人 李宁 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 交通运输 摘要 交运平台高增长，进入利润兑现期 ⚫ 估值相对低位，发掘成长公司 作者： ⚫ 经营杠杆，利润进入兑现期 随着竞争格局稳定，销售、管理、研发费用维持稳定，毛利润增长有望带动营业利润更大 幅度增长。2024年满帮集团、美团、顺丰同城的营业利润成倍增长，未来或持续较快增长。 ⚫ 渗透率上升，毛利持续增长 网约车、网络货运、即时配送的渗透率上升，带动满帮集团、美团、顺丰同城等公司2024 年营收和毛利润30%左右增长。满帮集团的变现率上升，2024年毛利润增速42%。 风险提示：公路运价下跌风险，市场竞争加剧风险，监管要求降低佣金率风险 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 2 1.1 聚焦交运高成长板块 高成长公司带来高回报机会。新兴的网约车、数字货运、即时配送等平台头部公司，业务 量和收入增速20%左右，营业利润成倍增长。随着新能源汽车普及、智能驾驶 ...