Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Achieving global net-zero carbon emissions requires halting deforestation and leveraging tropical forests as carbon sinks, with market mechanisms from REDD+ projects playing a crucial role [4][10] - Current carbon markets are underdeveloped, with existing mechanisms lacking the quality needed to support expanded demand, although efforts to enhance transparency and regulation are accelerating [4][5] - Innovative financial tools are being explored to mobilize investment in REDD+ frameworks, particularly in tropical countries, with significant potential for future development [5][18] Summary by Sections Section 1: Economic Drivers of Deforestation - Deforestation reflects unsustainable economic models in many developing countries, necessitating a fundamental shift towards sustainable growth that aligns economic development with forest conservation [9][10] - Effective policies combining protection and economic incentives are essential to halt deforestation, particularly in the Amazon [9][10] Section 2: JREDD+ Economics - The average price of REDD+ emission reductions (ERs) has increased significantly, from $3.9 per ton in 2019 to $11.21 per ton in 2023, yet the market remains small and insufficient to incentivize deforestation reduction [11][23] - The estimated cost for economically viable REDD+ supply is between $30 to $50 per ton of CO2, indicating a potential for significant cost savings in the transition to net-zero [12] Section 3: Innovative Financial Tools - The report discusses the potential of forest carbon bonds, call options, and put options to lower investment risks and mobilize private capital for REDD+ projects [18][41] - Forest carbon bonds can provide a mechanism for borrowing against future emission reductions, essential for financing necessary investments to curb deforestation [18][41] - Options contracts can help manage risks associated with carbon price fluctuations, allowing for more stable investment environments [54][56] Section 4: Case Study of Brazil - A numerical example from Brazil illustrates how the proposed financial tools can enhance the capacity for private investment and accelerate JREDD+ initiatives [19][20] - The tools discussed could mobilize substantial investment, creating strong policy incentives to prevent deforestation [19][20] Section 5: Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for increased private sector participation in the JREDD+ market, both as buyers of carbon credits and as financiers of emission reduction actions [15][16] - The development of financial solutions tailored to the diverse needs of investors is crucial for attracting private capital to the JREDD+ market [18][32]

Core Viewpoint - The national unified carbon market has established a dual-driven structure of mandatory carbon market and voluntary carbon market, with continuous expansion in trading scale and the development of a governance system where "carbon emissions have costs, and carbon reductions have benefits" [1] Group 1: Current Market Structure - The carbon market has developed into a dual structure consisting of a mandatory carbon emissions trading market and a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market [1] - The trading scale is continuously expanding, indicating a growing demand for professional services related to carbon markets [1] Group 2: Challenges in Professional Services - Market demand has not been fully released due to limited coverage of the mandatory carbon market and a lack of strong willingness among enterprises to manage quotas effectively [2] - There is an uneven development of professional services, with some areas like calibration and verification being more mature than others such as carbon asset management and project development consulting [2] - The entry barriers in many service areas are low or unclear, leading to inconsistent service quality among institutions [2] Group 3: Opportunities for Growth - The transition towards a greener and low-carbon economy presents significant opportunities for the development of carbon market-related professional services [3] - Recommendations include enhancing industry support policies, expanding the scale of both mandatory and voluntary carbon markets, and fostering a robust ecosystem for low-carbon services [3] Group 4: Institutional Development - There is a need to cultivate a diverse matrix of service institutions to meet the varied demands of the carbon market and prevent homogenization of services [4] - Institutions should focus on upgrading their services in energy conservation, inspection, certification, and information technology to expand into carbon-related services [4] Group 5: Service Diversification - Emphasis on combining "soft services" and "hard services" to enhance the quality and diversity of professional services [4] - Development of new service scenarios such as carbon trading consultants and carbon financial advisors is encouraged to meet the evolving needs of the market [4] Group 6: Regulatory Mechanisms - Establishment of a comprehensive regulatory mechanism is essential to ensure the quality and standards of professional services in the carbon market [5][6] - Regular evaluations and the publication of service institution lists can help improve service quality and foster public oversight [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market trading volume exceeded 800,000 tons, with CEA experiencing a significant decline [3]. - It is recommended that companies with a quota gap wait and observe, and purchase when the price drops to an appropriate level [3]. - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quota in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3]. - The new - included industries have no quota gap for the 2024 annual compliance, and the quota gap in the national carbon market has been slightly reduced, but it has limited impact on the supply - demand balance. The expansion plan brings short - term negative sentiment and may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas. The bottom price range in May is 50 - 60 yuan/ton [3]. - The exhaustion node of the mandatory circulation quota is postponed, and the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter. If the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to move backward, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **CEA**: CEA21, CEA23, and CEA24 saw significant declines. The listed volume was 106,300 tons, and the bulk volume was 712,300 tons. The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 73.00 yuan/ton, 70.50 yuan/ton, 73.00 yuan/ton, 70.80 yuan/ton, and 70.00 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.00%, - 3.42%, 0.00%, - 2.71%, and - 4.33% [3][4]. - **CCER**: The listed agreement trading volume was 0.00 tons, the average trading price was 96.13 yuan/ton (a 1.19% increase), the trading volume was 0.00 tons, the turnover was 250,000 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 1,689,800 tons [3][5]. Strategy - It is recommended that companies with a quota gap wait and observe, and purchase when the price drops to an appropriate level [3]. Core Logic - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quota in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3]. - The new - included industries have no quota gap for the 2024 annual compliance, and the quota gap in the national carbon market has been slightly reduced, but it has limited impact on the supply - demand balance. The expansion plan brings short - term negative sentiment and may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas. The bottom price range in May is 50 - 60 yuan/ton [3]. - The exhaustion node of the mandatory circulation quota is postponed, and the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter. If the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to move backward, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height [3].

《洞见ESG》4月刊 ESG强制信披倒计时 政策速递 证监会发文规范A股ESG信披，这458家上市公司须做好准备 近日，证监会发布修订后的《上市公司信息披露管理办法》，第六十五条明确提出"上市公司按照证券 交易所的规定发布可持续发展报告"。该《信披办法》于2025年7月1日起正式施行。 【点击查看详 情】 铝冶炼纳入碳市场有何影响？2026年碳配额缺口或达34万吨，企业需尽快降低碳成本 铝冶炼纳入碳市场的管控范围与电力行业有所不同。电力行业只管控化石燃料燃烧排放，而新纳入的 铝冶炼行业，除了化石燃料燃烧排放，工业过程排放也纳入管控。 【点击查看详情】 1200家水泥企业将纳入全国碳市场，如何减碳？ 按照单吨水泥碳排放550kg计算，近十年我国水泥工业每年碳排放在11亿吨以上。纳入全国碳市场的水 泥企业或达1200家，目前企业减排压力不大，但预计三到五年内碳配额将收紧，减排成本将上升。 【点击查看详情】 全国碳市场首次扩围：纳入钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业，新增1500家重点排放单位 生态环境部发布《全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业工作方案》。此次扩围后，预 计全国碳排放权交易市场重点排放单位将达到37 ...

Core Viewpoint - The carbon credit system under the Paris Agreement facilitates the cross-border flow of climate funds, achieving carbon reduction goals at lower costs and higher efficiency [1][11]. Development of China's Carbon Market - China's carbon market has evolved from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to a comprehensive system that includes mandatory and voluntary trading markets, ensuring a healthy and orderly operation [4][5]. - The voluntary carbon market has experienced fluctuations, with significant developments starting from 2012, including the establishment of the national certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) program [4][5]. - The national carbon market has seen a significant expansion, with the launch of the national power quota market in 2021 and the voluntary emission reduction trading system in 2023 [5][6]. Market Performance and Mechanisms - In 2024, the national carbon market's trading volume reached 189 million tons, with a transaction value of 18.114 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [6][7]. - The trading price in the carbon market has shown a steady increase, with the closing price in the fourth quarter stabilizing between 97 yuan/ton and 106 yuan/ton [7]. - The market's trading activity has significantly increased, with a turnover rate of 3.5% in 2024, compared to approximately 2.0% in previous years [6][7]. Policy Recommendations for Market Development - To enhance market vitality, it is essential to diversify trading products, participants, and methods, encouraging participation from financial institutions and individual investors [9][18]. - Implementing a paid quota usage mechanism, similar to the EU carbon market, is recommended to internalize costs and improve price discovery [9][18]. - Strengthening environmental information disclosure and building a robust integrity system are crucial for ensuring data quality and market credibility [10][18]. International Cooperation and Market Expansion - Attracting participation from countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative can enhance the quality and openness of China's carbon market, promoting international carbon asset transactions settled in yuan [1][11]. - Active participation in international rule-making is necessary to establish a legal, international, and modern carbon market, increasing its global attractiveness and influence [1][11].

Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for May 2025, indicating expected buy and sell prices for national carbon emission allowances (CEA) at 78.37 CNY/ton and 82.66 CNY/ton respectively, with a midpoint of 80.52 CNY/ton [1] - The buy price index decreased by 7.70%, the sell price index decreased by 7.32%, and the midpoint price index decreased by 7.51% [1] Group 2 - The research center provided price expectations for green certificates (GEC) for 2024 and 2025, with the price for centralized projects in May 2025 expected to be 5.20 CNY/unit, showing a significant increase compared to previous months [2] - The price for distributed projects in May 2025 is expected to be 4.87 CNY/unit, and for biomass power generation, it is expected to be 4.48 CNY/unit, indicating an overall increase in green certificate prices [2] Group 3 - The National Energy Administration announced the launch of the green certificate cancellation function, enhancing the transparency and regulation of the green power consumption management system [3] - In April, the average closing price of CEA was 82.26 CNY/ton, down 6.42% from March, while the average daily trading volume of carbon allowances increased significantly to 23.31 million tons, nearly doubling from March [3]

全国碳币场行情简报 (2025年第66期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-04-29 策略 建议缺口企业暂时观望,等待价格跌至合适位置再采购 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求，约0.4°0.5亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足。 核心 逻辑 2新纳入行业2024年度履约不设配额缺口,全国碳市场缺口喀有下调,但对供需平衡 影响有限;扩固方案带来短期情绪利空,或加速强制流通配额释放,综合价格短期支 撑位70元/吨附近。 3强制流通配额耗尽节点延后,上涨动能或出现在三季度末、四季度初;若盈余企业 卖出节点继续后移，价格底部越低,反弹高度越有限。 在公司具有中国证监会被准的期货交易咨询业务资格。本内容均观点和信息仅供国泰君安邦货的专业投资者参考。本内容难以设置访问权限， 装给您造成不便，鼓清谅解。吉您并非国泰君安期货客户中的专业投资者，请勿闻读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不构成具体业务的拉 个，亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议、且本公司不会因接收入收到本内容而视其为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公 司对这些信息的准确性、完整性及未来变更的可能性不作任何保证。请您 ...

2025 年 4 月 29 日 二 〇 二 五 年 度 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 集运碳成本更新：英国碳市场扩围影响与指标 编制方案修订——绿色金融联合研究（二） 唐惠珽 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021216 tanghuiting@gtht.com 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 报告导读： 2025 年 3 月 25 日，英国交通部发布了《海事脱碳战略》，该战略为英国国内海运排放设定了新目标， 与国际海事组织的最高雄心水平保持一致。为实现上述目标，2026 年起，英国碳市场将扩展至海上运输业。 然而，不同于欧盟碳市场，英国碳市场计划仅对国内海运业排放进行定价。 英国碳市场拓展至国内海运业的技术细节尚未公布，在缺乏技术细节的情况下，仍有一些问题值得探 讨，例如英国海港是否会被欧盟确定为"邻近集装箱转运港"，这将极大地影响承运人的显性碳成本。尽 管英国海港存在被纳入欧盟"邻近集装箱转运港"清单的可能性，但是欧盟委员会最新监测报告表明，欧 盟短期内可能不会这么做。 既然欧盟短期可能不会将英国海港纳入清单，那么"集运（欧线）碳排放交易成本" ...

3月26日，生态环境部正式印发《全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖水泥、钢铁、电解铝行业工作方案》，三 大行业正式纳入全国碳市场。碳市场是世界各国推进绿色转型的重要政策工具，目前已建设36个，22个 正在筹备建设中，新兴市场印度、东盟等都在加快碳市场建设。进入并能够参与碳市场，既是钢铁企业 绿色低碳转型的必选项，又是应对碳边境调节机制、参与国际竞争合作的必答题，钢铁企业亟需加强参 与全国碳市场的能力建设。 钢协在生态环境部气候司的指导下，日前分别在南京和石家庄举办了两场钢铁行业碳排放权交易市场宣 贯大会，对核算报告指南和核查技术、月度存证及管理要点、全国碳市场管理平台填报、全国碳排放权 注册登记和配额清缴等进行宣贯解读，助力钢铁企业全面了解碳排放核算方法、碳排放权交易政策、市 场规则及操作流程，提升碳资产管理能力，受到企业广泛好评。生态环境部充分考虑行业实际情况和钢 协意见，在2025、2026年设立适应过渡期，激励幅度不超过 3%，推动企业将短期履约压力转为长期技 术革新动力，由被动减排转为主动创新。 2025年4月29日，中国钢铁工业协会召开信息发布会，中钢协表示，纳入碳市场企业面临碳管理新任务 和成本上升新挑战。 ...