美联储宣布再降息25个基点 三人投票反对 中新社纽约12月10日电 (记者 王帆)美国联邦储备委员会10日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个 基点到3.5%至3.75%之间的水平。这是美联储今年以来第三次降息，决策过程中有三名官员投票反对。 美联储在为期两天的货币政策例会后发表声明称，现有指标表明美国经济活动正以温和速度扩张。今年 以来，就业增长有所放缓，失业率在9月略有上升，近期指标也印证了这一趋势。通胀率自年初以来有 所上升，仍处于较高水平。美联储寻求在较长时期内实现充分就业和2%通胀目标。经济前景不确定性 仍然较高。美联储密切关注其双重使命面临的风险，并认为近几个月来就业形势的下行风险有所上升。 声明称，为实现目标并鉴于风险平衡的变化，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到 3.5%至3.75%的水平。在考虑进一步调整利率的幅度和时机时，美联储将仔细评估最新数据、不断变化 的前景以及风险平衡。美联储认为，储备金余额已降至充足水平，将根据需要开始购买短期国债，以长 期维持充足的储备供应。 声明提到，此次利率决策过程有三人投票反对。其中，美联储理事米兰主张降息50个基点，堪萨斯城联 储银行行长 ...

内部分裂依旧，利率点阵图维持明年降息1次预测。 北京时间周四（11日）凌晨，美联储公布12月利率决议。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以9-3的方式决定下调利率区间25个基点至 3.50%-3.75%，这也是今年连续第三次降息，米兰倾向于下调50个基点，堪萨斯联储主席施密德再次投下反对票，倾向于维持联邦基金利率目标 区间不变，这一次他获得了芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比的支持。 美联储同时宣布，将启动短期国债购买计划，以此调节市场流动性水平，确保央行对自身利率目标体系保持稳定控制。 美联储在季度经济展望（SEP）中上修经济预测，通胀预测小幅下修，就业市场基本稳定，备受关注的点阵图预测明年或仅降息1次，与9月一 致。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，目前联邦基金利率已处于中性利率的大致预估区间内，完全有条件静观经济走势的变化。货币政 策并非遵循预设路径，我们将在每次会议上根据实际情况作出决策。 经济前景稳定 美联储决议声明显示，经济活动正以温和步伐扩张。今年以来，就业岗位增长有所放缓，失业率截至9月已小幅上升。近期公布的更多指标也与 上述趋势相符。通胀水平自年初以来有所抬头，目前仍处于偏高区间。 鲍威尔在发布会上透露， ...

12月11日，美联储以9-3的投票比例将基准利率下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%，为连续第三次会议降息。政策声明删除了对失业率"较低"的描述。最新点阵图 维持2026年降息25个基点的预测。 另外，美联储将于12月12日开始的30天内购买400亿美元国库券，以维持充足的准备金供应。 利率决议全文 可用的数据表明，经济活动正以温和的步伐扩张。今年以来就业增长放缓，失业率截至9月有所上升。更近期的指标与上述情况一致。通胀较年初有所上 升，仍处于偏高水平。 委员会的长期目标是实现最大就业和2%的通胀率。经济前景的不确定性依然处于高位。委员会密切关注其双重使命两端的风险，并认为近数月就业方面的 下行风险有所上升。 在评估适当的货币政策立场时，委员会将继续监测最新信息对经济前景的影响。如果出现可能阻碍实现委员会目标的风险，委员会将准备适时调整货币政策 立场。委员会的判断将考虑广泛的信息，包括劳动力市场状况、通胀压力与通胀预期，以及金融与国际形势的发展。 委员会认为，准备金余额已下降至充足水平，并将按需启动购买短期美国国债，以在持续基础上维持充足的准备金供应。 投票支持此次货币政策行动的有：主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Je ...

Group 1: Employment Data - The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in September, with 119,000 new jobs created, following a previous rate of 4.3% for three consecutive months [3] - Job openings rose to 7.67 million in October, the highest level since spring, indicating a positive outlook for job seekers [5][6] - However, layoffs also increased to 1.85 million in October, the highest since early 2023, particularly affecting the manufacturing, leisure, and hospitality sectors [7] Group 2: Hiring Trends - Hiring declined by 218,000 to 5.15 million despite the rise in job openings, suggesting a potential slowdown in employment growth [9] - The rate of voluntary job separations fell to its lowest since May 2020, indicating reduced employee confidence in the job market [9] - Private employers cut 32,000 jobs in November, with significant losses in construction, manufacturing, and professional/business services [10]

这些随新政策声明一同发布的季度预测，将为明年5月接替美联储主席鲍威尔的人设定基准预期，并相 当于给美国总统特朗普重返白宫后的这关键第一年开出的一份成绩单。 特朗普2024年总统竞选的核心议题——围绕通胀和负担能力的问题仍未解决。这位共和党总统在经济方 面的支持率正在下降，截至9月，食品价格同比上涨2.7%，而他在1月重掌大权时这一数字还不到2%。 此外，高房价和高抵押贷款利率相结合，使许多人无法触及住房所有权。 然而，今年早些时候一些最糟糕的预期结果并未成为现实。当时特朗普最初的"解放日"关税计划引发了 关于全球贸易崩溃、价格上涨与高失业率这一致命组合，甚至存在关于"圣诞购物季被取消"的讨论。 9月份美国失业率维持在4.4%的温和水平，这是目前可获得数据的最新月份。经济增长前景也有所改 善。尽管整体通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标，但有合理的理由认为明年可能会有所缓解。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美联储官员将于北京时间周四发布新的经济预测，为一个动荡的年份画上句号。 这一年，原本寄望的从通胀中"软着陆"，因关税上涨和移民打击导致工人供应受限而演变为价格压力的 重燃，而美联储在大部分 ...

当然，鲍威尔向来以数据为导向。无论他届时如何表述，明年1月的决策仍将基于从现在到那时的宏观经济信息。 北京时间周四凌晨03：00，美联储在结束两天的政策会议后将宣布最新的利率决定，并发布货币政策声明。半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔 将召开货币政策新闻发布会。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储本周降息25个基点的概率为87.6%，维持利率不变的概率为12.4%。这一预期早已被华尔街消化，目前标普 500指数仍徘徊在历史高点附近。 事实上，交易员们当前已不再关注降息决定本身，因为他们认为本周降息已经是板上钉钉之事，尽管联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）内部对 于是否降息仍然存在严重分歧。 相反， 他们将密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔在利率决议公布后的官方声明，以及他在新闻发布会上答问环节的措辞与语气变化 ，因为这关系 到美联储明年的货币政策走向——这是市场眼下最关注的事情。 杰富瑞分析师Thomas Simons与Michael Bacolas将重点关注鲍威尔是否会作出一个关键表述："处于良好位置（In a good place）"。若 他作出该表述，可能意味着其不倾向于明年1月进一步降息；若未使用这一措辞，则暗示本月降息后仍有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unemployment rate in the Philippines rose to 5.0% in October, marking an increase of 1.2 percentage points from September, with the unemployed population reaching 2.54 million [1]. Employment Data - The unemployment rate in October was 5.0%, up from 3.8% in September, with an increase of 580,000 unemployed individuals [1]. - The labor force participation rate decreased to 63.6%, down by 0.9 percentage points from September, indicating a weakening labor market [1]. Sector Analysis - The services sector employed the most individuals, with 29.46 million jobs, accounting for 60.6% of total employment [1]. - Agriculture and industry represented 21.5% and 17.9% of total employment, respectively [1]. - Employment in professional and technical activities, water supply and sewage treatment, and other service activities saw significant declines both year-on-year and month-on-month [1]. Employment Quality - The underemployment rate increased to 12.0%, rising by 0.9 percentage points from September, indicating that workers are seeking more hours or better job opportunities [1]. Youth Employment - The unemployment rate for the youth aged 15 to 24 reached 14.1%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from September and higher than the 12.5% recorded in the same period last year [1].

每经AI快讯，韩国11月失业率为2.7%，前值2.60%。 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in December, but this has already been priced in by the market, with the probability of a rate cut rising from 30% to 95% after comments from New York Fed President Williams[6] - The key focus of the December meeting will be on policy communication and forward guidance rather than the rate cut itself, which is seen as a dovish move[6] - A hawkish forward guidance is expected to accompany the rate cut to manage market expectations and avoid excessive optimism that could lead to asset bubbles and inflation rebounds[6] Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Risks - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the three-month average of non-farm payrolls indicating a decline, with October showing a loss of 54,000 jobs and November showing a loss of 2,000 jobs[6] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise above 4.5% if demand continues to weaken, which could significantly increase recession risks[6] - The Challenger company reported a significant rise in layoff announcements in October, indicating potential future increases in unemployment[6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - There is a risk of profit-taking in the market following the Fed's meeting, particularly in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, as stocks, bonds, commodities, and gold may face short-term pressure[6] - The upcoming employment data release on December 16 will be crucial in shaping market expectations and could influence the Fed's future policy decisions[6]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% [1] - Recent inflation data shows signs of a broader rebound, although some of the increase is attributed to temporary factors [1][2] - Economic activity in Australia is continuing to recover, with increased private demand, consumption, and investment [1] Group 2 - The RBA board acknowledges uncertainty in domestic economic activity and inflation outlook, with stronger-than-expected recovery in private sector activity [1][2] - The unemployment rate has gradually increased over the past year, indicating a slight tightening in the labor market [1] - The RBA has cut interest rates three times this year, from 4.1% in February to 3.6% in August [3]