Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for June, as well as average hourly earnings month-over-month and year-over-year, May trade balance, and last week's initial jobless claims data are set to be released shortly [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for June, highlighting expectations of a slowdown in job growth and potential implications for Federal Reserve policy [4][5][6]. Economic Indicators - Economists predict an increase of 110,000 in non-farm payrolls for June, a decrease from 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate expected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [4]. - Year-over-year wage growth is anticipated to remain steady at 3.9%, while month-over-month growth is expected to slow from 0.4% in May to 0.3% [4]. Labor Market Trends - There are signs of a cooling labor market, with a notable increase in continuing unemployment claims, reaching nearly 2 million, the highest level since November 2021 [9]. - The ADP report indicates a surprising reduction of 33,000 jobs in the private sector for June, marking the first monthly job loss since March 2023 [9]. Unemployment Rate Predictions - There is a divergence among economists regarding the unemployment rate, with some predicting it could rise to 4.4% due to weak job growth and challenges in the summer hiring season for college graduates [10]. - Factors such as immigration policies and labor force participation rates are influencing unemployment metrics, with some analysts suggesting that the actual unemployment rate could be higher if not for a decline in labor force participation [10]. Sector-Specific Insights - Economists are closely monitoring various sectors, including leisure and hospitality, healthcare, construction, manufacturing, and trade and transportation, for signs of employment trends [12]. - The leisure and hospitality sector showed strong hiring in May, but this trend may reverse in June due to reduced consumer spending on travel and related services [12]. Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index has recently reached new highs, driven by investor optimism regarding potential Fed rate cuts and trade agreements [15]. - A disappointing jobs report could trigger a sell-off in the stock market, with predictions that a non-farm payroll figure below 100,000 or an unemployment rate of 4.4% could lead to at least a 1% decline in stocks [15]. Gold Market Outlook - The article suggests that if the non-farm payroll data is below expectations, it could lead to a new round of dollar selling and increase the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, which would be bullish for gold prices [16]. - Conversely, better-than-expected employment data could alleviate concerns about the labor market and delay expectations for aggressive Fed easing, potentially putting downward pressure on gold [17].

Group 1: Silver Market Analysis - Silver futures are experiencing a strong upward trend, with the latest Shanghai silver futures price at 8960 CNY/kg, reflecting a 2.02% increase, reaching a high of 8964 CNY/kg and a low of 8781 CNY/kg [1] - The current trend indicates that the silver market remains bullish, with strong support levels identified at 8700 and 8600 points [3] Group 2: Employment and Economic Outlook - The unemployment rate in June is expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%, marking the highest level since October 2021, driven by an increase in layoffs and a slowdown in hiring activities [2] - Economic experts predict that the unemployment rate may continue to climb into the second half of 2025, indicating a more severe shift in the employment market than previously anticipated [2] - Recent immigration policy changes by the Trump administration have led to a reduction in the labor force, which may limit the potential rise in unemployment rates, as the economy requires fewer than 100,000 new jobs per month to maintain stability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated unemployment rate in the United States for June, with various financial institutions providing their forecasts, predominantly centered around a rate of 4.2% to 4.4% [1] Group 1: Forecasts by Financial Institutions - Multiple banks, including BNP Paribas, Barclays, and Mizuho, predict the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2% [1] - A group of banks, such as Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan, project a slight increase to 4.3% [1] - Citigroup stands out with a forecast of 4.4%, indicating a potential upward trend in the unemployment rate [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. job growth is expected to slow down, with a forecast of an increase of 106,000 jobs in June, the lowest in four months, and an unemployment rate projected to rise to 4.3% [1] - The increase in unemployment claims and a significant rise in layoff notices indicate a weakening job market, with the number of continuing unemployment claims reaching 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 [3] - The labor force participation rate has decreased to 62.4%, suggesting that the unemployment rate may remain stable if this trend continues [4] Group 2 - Various industries, including leisure and hospitality, healthcare, construction, manufacturing, and trade and transportation, are expected to show significant changes in employment numbers, with a consensus on a slowdown in hiring [5] - The leisure and hospitality sector had a strong performance in May, but economists predict a potential reversal in June due to reduced consumer spending on travel and related services [5] - There is a risk of downward revisions in hiring data for April and May, particularly in small businesses, which may affect the overall employment numbers reported for June [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that due to tariffs leading to increased inflation, the US dollar is expected to rise in the coming months, contrary to its recent downward trend [1][6] - Chris Turner from ING predicts that the dollar may temporarily escape its decline starting in August, as trade tariffs will accelerate consumer price growth, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates [1][6] - The euro is expected to briefly retreat to the range of 1.13 to 1.15 against the dollar, while the dollar to yen exchange rate is projected to return to the range of 145 to 150, indicating a decline of about 4% for both currencies [1][6] Group 2 - The market anticipates at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points, with the first cut expected in September [6] - Turner forecasts that the US inflation rate will rise from 2.4% in May to approximately 4% by August or September, with a median forecast of 3.1% for the third quarter and 3.3% for the last three months of the year [6] - The dollar index has fallen over 9% since 2025, reflecting increased bearish bets on the dollar's future performance [6] Group 3 - The labor market is identified as a key factor influencing the dollar's outlook, with a low unemployment rate suggesting a peak in bearish sentiment towards the dollar [7] - If the labor market begins to deteriorate, market sentiment may shift towards a more negative outlook for the dollar [7]

Economic Events and Data Summary - Key focus on various economic indicators and events scheduled for July 3rd, including China's Caixin Services PMI for June [1] - Switzerland's CPI month-on-month for June will be released at 14:30 [1] - The Ministry of Commerce will hold a regular press conference at 15:00 [1] - Final services PMI for June will be published for France at 15:50, Germany at 15:55, and the Eurozone at 16:00 [1][1][1] - The UK's services PMI for June will be available at 16:30 [1] - The European Central Bank will release the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting at 19:30 [1] - Key U.S. labor market data will be released at 20:30, including the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls for June [1] - The final services PMI for June from S&P Global will be published at 21:45 [1] - The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and factory orders for May will be released at 22:00 [1] - EIA natural gas inventory data for the week ending June 27 will be available at 22:30 [1] - Federal Reserve's Bostic will speak on monetary policy at 23:00 [1] - Total U.S. oil rig count for the week ending July 4 will be reported at 01:00 the next day [1]

欧元区5月失业率将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Economic Outlook - Economists predict a slowdown in job growth for June, with non-farm payrolls expected to increase by 115,000, down from 139,000 in May, and the unemployment rate anticipated to rise from 4.2% to 4.3% [1][4] - David Rogal from BlackRock notes that while the labor market is slowing, there are no signs of panic, with expected job growth at a moderate level just above 100,000 [1] Labor Market Indicators - Weekly claims for unemployment benefits are showing early signs of weakness in the June job market, with UBS economists indicating a decline in labor market strength over the past 6 to 8 weeks, predicting job additions of only 100,000 for June [1][4] - The average hourly wage is expected to rise by 0.3%, lower than May's increase of 0.4%, reflecting ongoing policy uncertainties affecting the labor market [4] Policy Uncertainties - A significant factor impacting employment data is President Trump's decision to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for approximately 380,000 individuals, with an additional 558,000 set to expire in the coming months. UBS estimates this could lead to a reduction of about 5,000 jobs in June [5] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a much lower job addition of 85,000 for June, attributing part of this to the TPS policy, which may reduce non-farm employment by 25,000 [5] Tariff Implications - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly with a deadline set for July 9, is another factor affecting the labor market. Even if tariffs do not revert to previous levels, the ongoing uncertainty is already impacting economic conditions [5] - According to the Kansas City Fed's June manufacturing survey, about 25% of businesses have reduced hiring, and 21% have laid off employees, indicating a direct impact from policy uncertainties [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market predictions suggest an approximately 80% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the upcoming July meeting, influenced by rising inflation expectations, particularly concerning potential tariff-induced inflation [6]

Key Points - The article highlights important financial data and events to be monitored on July 2, 2025, including U.S. API crude oil inventory and Eurozone unemployment rate [1] - It lists specific times for the release of various economic indicators, such as U.S. Challenger job cuts and ADP employment figures [1] - The article emphasizes the significance of EIA crude oil inventory data, including Cushing and strategic petroleum reserve inventories, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics [1]