当地时间8月5日，美国供应管理协会（ISM）发布的7月服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）下滑至50.1，不 仅低于6月的50.8，也逊于市场普遍预期。 美国服务业未能免疫于关税冲击波，扩张动能显著减弱。 服务业占美国国内生产总值（GDP）的70%以上，在制造业连续五个月收缩的背景下，服务业成为今年 以来支撑美国经济增长的主要力量。自去年7月以来，服务业PMI仅在今年5月短暂跌破荣枯线，并在6 月实现反弹。然而，7月数据的再度回落，引发了市场对美国经济前景的深度担忧，当日美国三大股指 全线收跌。 ISM服务业商业调查委员会主席米勒（Steve Miller）警告称，关税正在推高价格支付水平，可能会成为 未来通胀的推动因素。 持续强劲的就业市场是美国支出维持强劲的核心支柱。但当前，美国劳动力市场已经显示出放缓迹象。 7月末，美国国家餐饮协会致信美国贸易代表格里尔，称对新一轮关税措施"极度担忧"。信中称，若对 墨西哥和加拿大进口的食品饮料征收30%关税，美国餐饮业年度新增成本将高达151.6亿美元，严重侵 蚀行业"本就微薄的利润率"，并最终转嫁为菜单价格的上涨。若对巴西或欧盟加征关税，将在咖啡、牛 肉、欧洲食品、葡萄酒 ...

美国经济研究 美国经济成色究竟如何？ 2025 年 08 月 06 日 ➢ 关税给今年的宏观研究添了很多麻烦，这让"美国经济真的能完全摆脱关税 和高利率的影响平稳'着陆'？"这个困扰了大家多年的问题更加难以回答。 ➢ 从美国二季度 GDP 中我们可以窥探到部分答案，面对超预期回升的经济增 速，市场的反应并未如预想的一致乐观，这里面的原因除了有非农数据的"当头 一棒"，也有经济减速换挡的蛛丝马迹。细究结构来看，这份数据体现了贸易"噪 音"下的虚假"繁荣"，而非经济动能的真实体现。进口骤降与库存调整的短期效 应掩盖了内需疲软、投资放缓和通胀压力积压等诸多结构性矛盾。当前来看，美 国国内经济需求已经难言乐观，消费和投资都存在明显退坡的风险。 ➢ 通过二季度 GDP 数据，我们来剖析下这幅"虚实交织"的美国经济图景： [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 陶川 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0100524060005 | | | 邮箱： | taochuan@mszq.com | | 分析师 | 林彦 | | 执业证书： S0100525030001 | | | 邮箱： | linyan@ ...

中泰国际发布研报称，短期来看，叠加美元指数反弹及港股估值修复到位，大盘面临一定的技术性回调 压力。然而，港股整体上行趋势未改，活跃的交投、持续的港股通资金流入以及处于低位的沽空比例， 均表明市场情绪依然偏暖。国内政策托底、企业盈利改善趋势延续以及积极资金流向形成共振，港股中 期仍有望在基本面和政策面支撑下延续渐进式上行。技术层面，恒生指数短期在24,500点附近预计有一 定支撑。 美债：美国7月非农超预期疲弱，叠加7月ISM制造业指数和密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值均不及预 期，重燃市场对经济衰退的担忧，十年期美债收益率快速下行至4.24%附近。短期收益率或现技术性反 弹修正，但中期核心矛盾已转向：一是关税落地后通胀实际黏性高度(尽管贸易协议部分缓解压力，效 果待验)；二是美联储独立性受挑战——鹰派理事突离职、劳工统计高官遭解职，叠加特朗普施压，鲍 威尔维持鹰派难度加大。 海外市场方面，美股进入8-9月的季节性淡季，适逢7月ISM PMI下跌以及疲弱的非农数据均给予获利了 结甚至做空的机会。标普500指数及纳指于上周四实现单口转向，上周五更显著下跌，标普500指数中线 市宽加速跌至4月底以来新低，显示本轮调整正 ...

此外，美日达成贸易协议也降低了双方贸易的不确定性。据新华社报道，美国原定于8月1日对日本开征 的所谓"对等关税"税率将由25%下调至15%，备受关注的汽车关税税率也降至15%。这或许为日本央行 未来加息铺平了道路。 日本央行在刚过去的利率决议中按兵不动，却在央行会议纪要中释放出鹰派信号。 当地时间8月5日，日本央行公布的6月货币政策会议纪要显示，如果经济增长和通胀继续按照其预期发 展，日本央行将进一步加息。同时，大多数日本央行成员支持暂时维持利率不变，但包括日本央行行长 植田和男在内的多数成员倾向于最终加息，预计中期内经济增长和通胀将会回升。 日本央行的"鹰派"表态，很大程度出于通胀"高烧不退"。虽然日本6月核心消费者物价指数（CPI）同比 涨幅较5月回落，但仍然处于高位。数据显示，过去7个月，日本通胀率一直维持在或高于3%的水平， 导致家庭实际收入持续下降，且目前日本的物价涨幅已超过七国集团（G7）其他国家。 当外界猜测日本央行10月加息的大门已经敞开时，日本却面临着可能步入经济衰退的风险。一方面，受 对美出口下滑的影响，日本出口总额已连续两个月同比下降；另一方面，日本政府已经把景气动向指数 评估转为"恶化 ...

21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 报道 日本央行在刚过去的利率决议中按兵不动，却在央行会议纪要中释放出鹰派信号。 当地时间8月5日，日本央行公布的6月货币政策会议纪要显示，如果经济增长和通胀继续按照其预期发 展，日本央行将进一步加息。同时，大多数日本央行成员支持暂时维持利率不变，但包括日本央行行长 植田和男在内的多数成员倾向于最终加息，预计中期内经济增长和通胀将会回升。 日本央行的"鹰派"表态，很大程度出于通胀"高烧不退"。虽然日本6月核心消费者物价指数（CPI）同比 涨幅较5月回落，但仍然处于高位。数据显示，过去7个月，日本通胀率一直维持在或高于3%的水平， 导致家庭实际收入持续下降，且目前日本的物价涨幅已超过七国集团（G7）其他国家。 10月能加息吗？ 尽管日本央行在上一轮利率决议中将政策利率维持在0.5%的水平，连续四次按兵不动，但其上调通胀 预测的举措，仍被市场解读成是为加息铺路。 具体来看，日本央行全面上调了2025财年至2027财年的核心CPI通胀预测，还把对通胀风险的评估从之 前的"倾向于下行"调整为"总体均衡"。 此外，美日达成贸易协议也降低了双方贸易的不确定性。据新华社报道，美国原定于8月1日对日 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is increasingly leaning towards interest rate cuts, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction in September approaching 100% probability [1][2][3] - Recent economic data, particularly the weak non-farm payrolls report for July, has weakened the narrative of a robust economy, prompting a shift in the Fed's stance [2][3] - The internal divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have become more apparent, with two dissenting votes in the July meeting marking a significant shift in the committee's dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Concerns about the U.S. economy's underlying strength are growing, with signs of a weakening labor market and slowing consumer spending, particularly in the manufacturing and service sectors [3][4] - The upcoming inflation and employment data releases will be critical for the Fed's decision-making process regarding potential rate cuts [4][8] - Market sentiment is heavily leaning towards the expectation of rate cuts, with discussions even considering the possibility of a 50 basis point reduction [4][9] Group 3 - The stock market has reacted positively to the Fed's dovish signals, with major indices rebounding over 1% [5] - However, there are concerns that the stock market may be entering a bubble territory, with warnings about potential overvaluation and cautious behavior from corporate executives [6][7] - The risk of a recession looms, as indicators suggest a weakening economy, which could negatively impact the stock market despite the favorable conditions created by potential rate cuts [7][10] Group 4 - The Fed's dual mandate of maintaining price stability and achieving full employment is becoming increasingly challenging, as inflation pressures and labor market weaknesses coexist [8][9] - The Fed's current approach is to prioritize avoiding significant policy missteps over precise timing of actions, indicating a cautious and reactive stance [11]

花旗一举扭转此前观点，认为当前由关税引发的通胀担忧、劳动力市场走弱以及美元疲软预期，共同构成了未来三个月内金价上涨的"完美风暴"。 （花旗上调目标价位至3500美元/盎司，过去3个月金价处于"区间波 动"状态） 据追风交易台消息，8月3日花旗研报指出，黄金在未来三个月内有望创下历史新高，目标价位上调至3500美元/盎司，这为寻求对冲美股下跌、美元走软 以及美国经济周期性风险的投资者提供了短期战术机会。 然而随着美国政府可能在2026年推出刺激措施，经济基本面将得到改善，花旗预计届时金价将面临周期性回调的压力。此外花旗强调对于黄金生产商而 言，当前高达3900美元的远期价格，则提供了一个锁定未来利润的"五十年一遇"的良机。 短期看涨：美股美元双重对冲需求推动金价上行 今年以来，黄金投资需求加速上涨直接与美股、美元的下行密切挂钩。 花旗认为本轮金价上涨并非结构性因素为主（如央行购金规模温和增加），而是与"周期性"增长、通胀担忧以及美股美元双重对冲需求有关。 （"周期性"增长、通胀担忧以及美元走弱推动金价走高） 数据显示，美欧受关税影响的股票下跌与美元指数走弱同步出现，而黄金ETF持仓大幅增加。美元自2月起下跌约1 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The records discuss the performance of global capital markets, particularly focusing on the Chinese A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. equities, amidst economic uncertainties and policy changes in China and the U.S. [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments Economic Conditions and Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,600 points, indicating uncertainty in the previous bull market expectations, with the "anti-involution" sector leading the decline [1] - U.S. non-farm payroll data showed weakness, raising concerns about economic recession and interest rate cuts, which affected stock market performance [3][4] - The divergence in market sentiment regarding U.S. economic resilience versus recession risks is impacting Federal Reserve monetary policy and dollar liquidity [4] China's Economic Policies - China's "anti-involution" policy aims to end deflation expectations and has sparked hopes for economic recovery, but recent market reactions indicate challenges in achieving these goals [5][6] - The market's expectations for the "anti-involution" policy were not met following the Politburo meeting, leading to increased uncertainty about future economic trends [6][7] - July's manufacturing PMI data showed a significant decline in both domestic and external demand, further complicating the economic outlook [7] Export Performance - From April to June, China's external demand was strong, but July saw a weakening in new export orders and high-frequency export data, indicating the global economic changes are starting to affect Chinese exports [8] Labor Market and Monetary Policy in the U.S. - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.248% in July, the highest in the current rate-cutting cycle [12] - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin interest rate cuts in September, with a total reduction of 100 basis points anticipated by early 2026 [18][19] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing and extent of rate cuts are evident, with some members advocating for immediate cuts while others prefer a cautious approach [20][21] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation is significant, as they increase the cost of imported goods, which can lead to higher overall price levels [16] - The need for continuous monitoring of labor market and inflation data is emphasized, particularly with upcoming CPI data releases [22] - The potential for further declines in U.S. Treasury yields is noted, especially for the two-year bonds, which may drop to 3.5% or lower if rate cuts proceed as expected [24][25]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **U.S. employment market** and its implications for the **U.S. economy** and **capital markets**. Additionally, there is a focus on the **A-share and Hong Kong stock markets**. Key Points and Arguments U.S. Employment Market - The U.S. job market data has shown weakness, with May and June's job additions revised down by **260,000**, and July's additions at only **73,000**. The unemployment rate rose to **4.2%**, providing justification for the Federal Reserve's three expected rate cuts in 2025 [1][2] - The significant downward revision in July's job additions to **14,000** from an initial estimate of **147,000** indicates a **90% reduction**. This adjustment is concentrated in the government, leisure, hospitality, and construction sectors, which collectively accounted for **70%** of the total downward revision [2] Federal Reserve Policy - Following the Federal Reserve's leadership change, a continuation of **loose monetary policy** is expected. Short-term forecasts suggest a decline in the **U.S. dollar index** and **2-year Treasury yields**, while the **10-year Treasury yield** remains uncertain due to inflation risks [5] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to support the U.S. stock market, which is projected to achieve a soft landing in the medium to long term, despite short-term fluctuations [5] Domestic Market Performance - The domestic market is on a positive trajectory, with expectations for the A-share and Hong Kong markets to surpass their September 2024 highs. This is driven by improved external pressures, anti-involution policies, and new infrastructure projects [6][7] - Factors supporting the domestic capital market include resilience in fundamentals, improved liquidity, and increased willingness of individual investors to enter the market [7][8] Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Despite recent market pullbacks, the number of high-performing stocks remains significant, indicating that thematic investment sentiment among small and medium-sized investors has not diminished [8] - Long-term funds, such as insurance and MVC, have consistently entered the market, providing support during fluctuations [8] Future Market Outlook - Three main factors are expected to support the stock market's upward trajectory in the second half of the year: the development of emerging industries, verification of mid-year performance, and favorable external risk preferences [9][10] - The stock index is anticipated to be relatively easy to rise in August and the following month, with expectations of a slight upward trend [10] Bond Market - In the previous week, **263 credit bonds** were issued, totaling **255.1 billion** yuan, a **57%** decrease from the previous period. The average issuance term was **3.67 years**, with an average coupon rate of **2.26%** [11] Fund Performance - July saw a positive performance in the A-share market, with a significant increase in the number of rising stocks. High-risk preference among retail funds is recovering, while stable long-term funds have increased their positions [12] - Event-driven investment opportunities have performed well, with notable excess returns from institutional research combinations [12][13] Conclusion - The overall sentiment towards the equity market remains optimistic, although a slight pullback may occur in the short term. The medium to long-term outlook suggests a return to a sustained upward trading trend [14]

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月5日电由于上周五公布的非农就业数据显著弱于市场预期，引发市场对经济衰退的担 忧，美国国债收益率大幅下滑，并延续跌势至周一（8月4日）。截至4日纽市尾盘，10年期美债收益率 跌约2个基点至4.19%，2年期美债收益率跌约1个基点至3.68%。 美国劳工部上周五公布的数据显示，美国7月就业增长大幅放缓，非农就业岗位仅增加7.3万个，这一数 据远低于市场预期的11万个。5月、6月非农新增就业人数从14.4万人、14.7万人，大幅修正至1.9万人、 1.4万人，合计修正人数减少25.8万人。失业率也从6月的4.1%小幅上升至4.2%。 非农就业报告揭示了美国劳动力市场的疲软态势，进一步加剧了投资者对未来经济增长放缓的担忧。市 场对美联储将通过降息来支持经济活动的预期提升。 美国总统特朗普宣布，他已下令解雇美国劳工部下属的劳工统计局局长埃丽卡·麦肯塔弗，指控她"出于 政治目的操纵就业数据"。 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园表示，他更倾向于认为本次非农数据的下修是一次性调整，并不能代表美国 经济已出现衰退迹象。据熊园分析，虽然5-6月的非农数据大幅下修，但同一时期的初请失业金人数、 周度 ...