盘前市场动向 1. 5月15日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.38%，标普500指数期货跌0.49%，纳指期货跌 0.61%。 | = US 30 | 41,889.50 | 42,022.50 | 41,760.50 | -161.60 | -0.38% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 5,863.90 | 5,884.40 | 5,847.50 | -28.70 | -0.49% | | 트 US Tech 100 | 21,189.80 | 21,330.00 | 21,111.40 | -129.40 | -0.61% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.04%，英国富时100指数涨0.23%，法国CAC40指数跌0.20%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.36%。 | 德国DAX30 | 23,512.05 | 23,547.26 | 23,339.00 | +8.85 | +0.04% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 瑞 英国富时100 | 8, ...

美国经济的"晴雨表"沃尔玛第一季度净销售额增长2.5%至1656亿美元，略低于预期。美国可比销售增长4.5%，超过分析师预期的3.94%。 尽管销售表现强劲，但CFO警告，关税导致的价格上涨可能从本月开始。公司维持了2026财年的年度销售和利润预测不变。 15日，沃尔玛公布了截至4月30日的季度业绩： 核心业务表现： 沃尔玛维持了2026财年的年度销售和利润预测不变。公司继续预计截至2026年1月的财年调整后每股收益在2.50美元至2.60美元之间，年销售额增长在 3%至4%之间。同时，预计第二季度合并净销售额增长在3.5%至4.5%之间，高于市场预期的3.46%。 作为美国最大的集装箱货物进口商，沃尔玛的财报一直被视为了解美国消费者健康状况和关税政策经济波动影响的重要窗口。沃尔玛CEO Doug McMillon在财报电话会议中直言： "我们将尽最大努力保持低价，但考虑到关税的规模，即使是本周宣布的降低后的水平，考虑到零售业利润微薄的现实，我们也无法吸收所 有压力。" CFO John David Rainey在接受采访时表示： "目前零售业的经营环境充满挑战，价格上涨如此之快。历史上没有先例能与如此高、如 ...

| 11/11/2 ■投前货 | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月15日 | | 贵金属 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 贵金属延续回调。证期贸易和地缘谈判降低市场对于美国经济衰退的押注,情绪切换令金价回吐前期风险溢 价。国际金价处于调整过程中,关注3200美元/盎司处支撑有效性。今晚关注美国PPI、零售销售和周废初清 矢业金人数。 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具备相对恰当的投资机会 4月GPI数据让市场更加固惑 -- 整体通胀率同比仅增长2.3%,创下四年来的最低水平,主要得益于食品价格 的下跌。然而,剔除食品和能源的核心通胀率却依然高达2.8%,远超美联储2%的目标。这种"表面降温、内 部火热"的局 ...

摩根大通全球市场策略主管表示，美国或许可以避免经济衰退，随着全球贸易前景更加明朗，这种情境 发生的概率已有所下降。Dubravko Lakos-Bujas周四表示，他认为经济衰退的可能性为35%，并澄清称 这是他个人观点。摩根大通本周早些时候的官方评估仍认为风险"依然较高"，但低于50%。"与几周前 相比，情况确实更加明朗，"他在巴黎参加摩根大通举办的全球市场会议间隙对彭博电视的Francine Lacqua表示。"围绕贸易、关税和政策的一些不确定性开始得到控制。"（彭博） ...

瑞穗首席执行官Masahiro Kihara表示，由于特朗普政府的关税措施使商业规划更加不可预测，全球贸易 的不确定性导致该银行预测更为保守的前景。一天前，三井住友金融集团警告说，客户对交易和投资变 得谨慎起来，它拨出了900亿日元以应对经济衰退风险。 这些日本银行在过去一年中实现了创纪录的利润，这得益于人们期待已久的日本央行加息，以及出售所 持客户公司股票带来的收益。但日本依赖贸易的经济出现下滑的风险，给进一步加息的前景蒙上了阴 影，并给股价带来压力。 MUFG在一份报告中表示，"高度不确定性"使得预测贸易政策对经济、商业环境和业绩的影响具有挑战 性。该报告列出了从滞胀到对美元失去信任等一系列风险。 所有银行的净利润指引都低于分析师的平均预期，不过这对日本银行来说并不罕见，即使在经济稳定时 期，它们在设定年度目标时也往往很谨慎。 日本最大的几家银行预计，今年的利润将再创历史新高，并公布了回购股票的计划，尽管它们警告称， 贸易紧张局势可能会损害商业和经济增长。日本最大的银行三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)周四表示，截至 明年3月份的12个月，该公司净利润预计将增长7.5%，至2万亿日元(合137亿美元)。瑞穗金融 ...

5月1 5日，美 债 收 益 率 集 体 大 涨，各 期 限 收 益 率 均 超 4 %，3 0 年 期 美 债 收 益 率 逼 近 5 % 大 关 、 1 0 年 期 美 债 收 益 率 升 破 4 . 5 % 关 口 。 | < w | 美国国债 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称▼ | 买入 | 卖出 | | 30Y 美国国 | 4.9624 | 4.9593 | | 30YRBOND.GB | | | | M | | | | 20Y 美国国 | 4.9951 | 4.9913 | | 20YRBOND.GB | | | | M | | | | 10Y 美国国 | 4.5323 | 4.5303 | | 10YRNOTE.GB | | | | M | | | | 7Y 美国国债 | 4.349 | 4.3437 | | 7YRNOTE.GBM | | | | 5Y 美国国债 | 4.1651 | 4.1615 | | 5YRNOTE.GBM | | | | 3Y 美国国债 | 4.0487 | 4.0459 | | 3YRNOTE.GBM | | | | 2Y 美国国债 | 4.0 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite weak sentiment data indicating an impending economic downturn, if a recession does not materialize, the U.S. stock market could experience a significant rally, potentially in double digits [1] - Historical data shows that when ISM manufacturing and consumer surveys decline sharply without leading to a recession, the U.S. stock market has averaged a 17% increase over the following 12 months [1] - Current conditions are favorable for a potential market rebound, as soft data contrasts sharply with strong hard data, indicating a historical extreme gap between pessimistic sentiment and optimistic facts [1] Group 2 - Despite a weak GDP performance in Q1 attributed to tariff disruptions, the company anticipates a significant reversal in Q2, projecting a 2% GDP growth and a potential rise in the S&P 500 index to nearly 6900 points if a recession is avoided [2] - Additional bullish factors for the summer U.S. stock market include progress in trade negotiations, policy shifts towards tax cuts and deregulation, and the return of manufacturing from emerging markets [2]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 宏观金融团队 中线行情： 4 月初特朗普对等关税措施远超市场预期，引发全球市场剧震并打压包括黄 金在内的全球金融资产；但因特朗普恃强凌弱蛮横无理反复无常损害美元信用引 发跨国资金抛离美国资产行为，来自全球贸易货币体系重组、美国和全球经济衰 退前景、以及美国金融市场波动性的三重避险需求推动 4 月 22 日伦敦金价突破 3500 美元/盎司；虽然部分多头获利平仓叠加特朗普政府安抚市场言论使得金价 有所回调，但整体看中级上涨趋势仍保持良好。我们判断特朗普以美国优先原则 推动国内外改革的决心并没有根本性变化 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent global risk aversion has decreased, leading to significant fluctuations in international gold prices, with key resistance at $3250 per ounce and a drop below $3230 per ounce observed [1][2]. Market Trends - On May 14, the London spot gold price fell to below $3230 per ounce, reaching a low of $3221.45 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures also dropped below $3230 per ounce [2]. - Domestic jewelry gold prices have also declined, with prices for gold jewelry falling below 1000 yuan per gram, specifically to 992 yuan per gram for Zhou Shiliu and 980 yuan per gram for Caibai [2]. Investment Flows - In April, global physical gold ETFs saw inflows of $11 billion, with Asia accounting for 65% of the total inflow, primarily driven by the Chinese market, which saw inflows surpassing the total for the first quarter of 2025 [3]. Trading Activity - April recorded an average daily trading volume of $441 billion in gold markets, a 48% increase month-on-month, with the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) seeing a 31% increase in off-exchange trading volume [4]. - As of the end of April, net long positions in COMEX gold futures decreased by 30% to 566 tons, with fund managers' net long positions dropping to 360 tons, a 35% decline from the average level in 2024 [4]. Short-term Outlook - Market sentiment is cautious regarding short-term gold price movements, with expectations of a potential adjustment as the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance [4]. - Analysts predict that while short-term pressures exist, the risk of U.S. economic recession may lead to a shift towards looser monetary policy in the second half of the year, supporting a medium-term upward trend in gold prices [4][5]. Long-term Projections - Institutions remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for gold prices, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a year-end target of $3700 per ounce and predictions from other analysts suggesting potential increases to $4000 per ounce [5]. - Factors such as declining confidence in U.S. assets, concerns over economic recession, and ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to support gold prices in the long run [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by U.S. Vice President Vance, indicating a lack of effective response to the current economic challenges [1][6][7] - Recent economic data from the U.S. shows a contraction in GDP by 0.3% in Q1, marking the first negative growth since Q1 2022, contrasting sharply with previous growth rates of 3.1% and 2.4% in Q3 and Q4 of last year respectively [3][4] - The uncertainty in international trade policies, particularly due to tariffs implemented during the Trump administration, has led to a significant decline in consumer confidence, with the index dropping from 57 in March to 50.8, the lowest in 12 years [4][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the third consecutive time reflects ongoing concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty [6][7] - The "Beige Book" report from the Federal Reserve indicates minimal changes in economic activity, with the term "tariffs" mentioned 107 times, highlighting the pervasive uncertainty affecting business decisions [4][6] - The combination of weak economic growth, persistent inflation, and trade policy uncertainties suggests that the current policy measures may not be achieving the desired outcomes, raising questions about future adjustments by the Federal Reserve [7]