（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，9月30日纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.11%报97.83，9月跌0.02%。非美货币多数上涨，欧元兑 美元涨0.05%报1.1734，英镑兑美元涨0.09%报1.3445，澳元兑美元涨0.55%报0.6613，美元兑日元跌 0.46%报147.9285，美元兑加元涨0.04%报1.3920，美元兑瑞郎跌0.17%报0.7964。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in spot gold prices, which fell by 1%, reflects a market adjustment to Federal Reserve policy expectations and a temporary increase in investor risk appetite [1][2]. Market Review - On September 30, during European trading hours, spot gold prices experienced a significant decline, with a daily drop of 1%. The past week saw increased volatility in gold prices, indicating fluctuating market sentiment [2][10]. Driving Factors Analysis - **Strengthening Dollar and Interest Rate Expectations**: Recent robust U.S. economic data has led to a decrease in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, resulting in a stronger dollar and higher 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which have pressured gold prices [4]. - **Rising Risk Appetite**: The performance of risk assets, such as U.S. stocks and certain emerging market indices, has improved, leading to a recovery in investor sentiment and reduced demand for gold [5]. - **Technical Factors**: Gold faced resistance near key levels, with intensified trading activity leading to a 1% drop, potentially exacerbated by technical selling and stop-loss orders [6]. - **Temporary Easing of Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Variables**: A decrease in market focus on certain geopolitical risks has weakened the buying momentum for gold as a safe-haven asset [7]. Market Interpretation and Investor Sentiment - Market participants exhibit divided interpretations, with some institutions noting limited changes in gold ETF holdings, suggesting that long-term capital has not significantly exited the market, and that short-term fluctuations may be more emotional adjustments [8]. Future Outlook and Key Focus Areas - The future trajectory of gold prices will largely depend on: 1. The Federal Reserve's policy direction [9] 2. Potential declines in U.S. inflation and economic data over the coming months, which could lead to renewed expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting gold prices [9]. Conclusion - The recent 1% decline in spot gold prices indicates significant short-term pressure from a strengthening dollar and rising interest rate expectations. However, gold retains its strategic value as a long-term safe-haven and store of value, warranting a broader examination of global macro trends and risk dynamics rather than solely focusing on short-term price movements [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar in the first three quarters of the year, influenced by a weakening dollar and internal economic improvements, while the yuan's appreciation is seen as moderate compared to the dollar's decline [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - The central bank reported that the midpoint exchange rate for the yuan against the dollar is 7.1055, with the yuan appreciating by 829 basis points cumulatively in the first three quarters [1]. - The onshore yuan appreciated approximately 1700 basis points, or about 2.4%, while the offshore yuan appreciated around 2.8% [1]. - The dollar index fell by about 10% in the first three quarters, leading to a general appreciation of non-dollar currencies, including the yuan [1]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - The head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange noted that the foreign exchange market has become more rational and stable during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with the yuan's exchange rate showing two-way fluctuations and increased elasticity [2]. - The chief economist at China Bank Securities indicated that the yuan's performance against the dollar has improved this year, contrasting with the pressure experienced during Trump's first term [2]. - Factors influencing the yuan's depreciation are present but vary in their impact over time, suggesting a complex interplay of internal and external factors [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the yuan will remain strong in the short term, with attention on the potential impact of US interest rate cuts on the dollar's performance [2]. - The yuan is expected to maintain a stable trajectory with limited risks of rapid appreciation or significant depreciation, supported by domestic policy measures and external economic conditions [2].

Core Viewpoint - Recent discussions around gold prices indicate a strong upward trend, with concerns about whether gold has reached a high point. Factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, declining real interest rates, and global central bank purchases of gold support a bullish outlook for gold [3]. Group 1: Historical Valuation and Real Interest Rates - From June 1995 to September 2025, COMEX gold prices have shown an overall upward trend, particularly accelerating after 2020. However, when adjusted for inflation, the real price of gold has not significantly deviated from historical peaks in 1980, 2011, and 2020. This suggests that gold's purchasing power has not fully kept pace with nominal price increases due to inflation [5]. - The current decline in real interest rates, driven by the Federal Reserve's easing policies, supports an upward adjustment in gold's valuation [5]. Group 2: Gold as a Long-Term Asset - Gold is characterized as a "long-term upward-trending asset" when adjusted for inflation. The relationship between gold prices and real interest rates indicates that lower rates enhance gold's attractiveness as an investment [7][9]. Group 3: Currency Dynamics and Gold Prices - The inverse relationship between the US dollar index and gold prices has been noted, with a weakening dollar since 2025 enhancing gold's appeal. For domestic investors, fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate also play a crucial role in gold price movements, particularly during periods of RMB depreciation [10][11]. Group 4: Geopolitical Factors and Central Bank Purchases - Gold serves as a hedge during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, with historical events such as Middle Eastern conflicts and US-China trade tensions driving increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Central banks in emerging markets, including China, India, and Turkey, have been increasing their gold reserves, providing a significant support for gold prices [13][14]. Group 5: Fund Products and Investment Outlook - Various public funds invest in gold-related assets, including spot gold ETFs and funds tracking gold industry stocks. Despite gold prices being near historical highs at approximately $3,800 per ounce, the real price remains elevated compared to the past decade. While short-term risks may exist, the long-term investment rationale for gold remains strong due to declining real interest rates and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets [16].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，9月29日纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.26%报97.94，非美货币多数上涨，欧元兑美元涨0.24%报 1.1728，英镑兑美元涨0.24%报1.3432，澳元兑美元涨0.46%报0.6577，美元兑日元跌0.60%报148.6100， 美元兑加元跌0.22%报1.3913，美元兑瑞郎跌0.07%报0.7977。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB/USD exchange rate are primarily influenced by the rebound of the US dollar index, with a general trend of "first suppressed, then rising" observed in the RMB exchange rate this year, indicating a stable long-term outlook despite short-term volatility [1][4][5]. Exchange Rate Fluctuations - On September 29, the RMB/USD central parity rate was reported at 7.1089, an increase of 63 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB experienced slight depreciation in the third week of September, with the onshore RMB closing at 7.1219 on September 24, down 86 points from the previous day [2]. - The dollar index saw a significant rise, reaching a two-week high of 98.6044, contributing to the RMB's depreciation [2]. Influencing Factors - The depreciation of the RMB is attributed to the strong performance of the US dollar, driven by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's comments on inflation and employment risks, which have tempered market expectations for aggressive rate cuts [2][3]. - Seasonal demand for foreign exchange, particularly for cross-border payments and personal expenses related to studying and traveling abroad, has increased the demand for USD [3]. - The RMB's strength is supported by China's economic recovery and improved prospects for technological innovation, alongside a reduction in trade tensions with the US [4][5]. Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the short-term fluctuations in the RMB will not alter its long-term stability at a reasonable equilibrium level, despite the presence of both positive and negative factors affecting the exchange rate [4][5]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to enhance market resilience and stabilize expectations to prevent excessive fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate [5].

2025.09. 29 本文字数：1755，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 9月29日，人民币对美元中间价报7.1089，较前一交易日调升63个基点。上一交易日，人民币对美 元中间价报7.1152。 近期，人民币汇率呈现短期窄幅波动特征，市场对近一个月人民币的变化格外关注。以离岸人民币为 例，9月一度升值触及7.08附近，上周又一度跌破7.14。 综合市场分析来看，人民币汇率近期波动背后，最直接的原因是受美元指数阶段性反弹带动。今年以 来，人民币汇率整体"先抑后扬"，内外利好支撑中长期稳健。展望未来，短期波动不会改变人民币 在合理均衡水平上基本稳定的中长期格局，但当前影响人民币汇率涨跌的因素同时存在。 人民币汇率窄幅波动 9月第三周，人民币汇率呈现小幅贬值态势，整体波动收窄。 数据显示，9月24日，在岸人民币对美元收盘报7.1219，较上一交易日降86点，后续几个交易日维 持窄幅波动。 在市场分析看来，人民币汇率贬值直接原因是美元指数的阶段性反弹。9月24日、25日，美元指数 连续两天大涨，突破98整数位，最高冲至98.6044，其中，9月24日收盘97.8635，上涨63点，创 两周新高。26 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a historic high of $3,800 per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of 45% this year, the largest annual gain since 1979 [1] - The upcoming National Day holiday in China is expected to boost gold consumption, prompting several jewelry brands to raise their prices [1] Gold Price Trends - The international gold price has surpassed 1,100 yuan per gram for domestic brands, with major jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang announcing price increases [3][4] - Chow Tai Fook plans to raise its "one-price" gold product prices starting in October, with potential increases of 30% to 40% for popular items [3] - Other brands, including Chow Sang Sang and Bao Lan, are also adjusting their prices, with increases ranging from 100 to 500 yuan depending on the product [4] Market Dynamics - SPDR has significantly increased its gold holdings, with a total of 1,005.72 tons as of late September, reflecting a strong inflow of capital into the gold market [5] - Bank of America reported a record inflow of $17.6 billion into the gold market over the past four weeks, indicating heightened investor interest [5][6] Future Outlook - Analysts from Deutsche Bank have raised their gold price forecast for 2026 to $4,000 per ounce, while Barclays suggests that gold is not overvalued compared to the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [8] - The decline of the dollar by 9.7% since the beginning of 2025 has contributed to the rising value of gold, as concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and trade war prospects persist [8]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened, with inflation expectations declining [1][12] - Offshore dollar liquidity tightened overall, while the domestic interbank funding situation remained balanced [1][17] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with major indices' volatility also declining [2][31] - Trading heat in sectors such as electronics, automotive, consumer services, real estate, textiles, and communications remains above the 80th percentile [2][24] - The volatility of the communication sector remains above the 80th historical percentile [2][31] Institutional Research - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, communications, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverages, with mechanical, transportation, banking, and consumer services sectors seeing a month-on-month increase in research heat [3][42] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have adjusted net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026, with increases in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, consumer services, chemicals, machinery, and automotive [4][49] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 has increased [4][49] - The net profit forecasts for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 indices for 2025 and 2026 have been raised, while the CSI 500 index has seen downward adjustments [4][49] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing to show net selling but at a slower pace [5][31] - In the top 10 active stocks, the ratio of buy/sell totals in sectors like electronics, electric vehicles, and automotive has increased, while it has decreased in non-bank, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous sectors [5][31] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity is approaching the highest point since July 2020, with a net purchase of 26.48 billion yuan last week [6][35] - The main net purchases in margin financing were in electronics, communications, and electric vehicle sectors, while net sales were seen in non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and non-bank sectors [6][35] Active Equity Fund Positions - Active equity funds have reduced their positions, primarily increasing allocations in media, computing, and machinery sectors while decreasing in communications, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverages [8][45] - The correlation between active equity funds and mid/small-cap growth and small-cap value has increased [8][45] - New fund establishment sizes have decreased, with active funds seeing a rebound while passive funds have declined [8][50]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate are influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, the dynamics of China-U.S. trade negotiations, and the resilience of the Chinese economy under tariff pressures [1][5]. Exchange Rate Fluctuations - As of September 29, the RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.1089, an increase of 63 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB has shown a pattern of narrow fluctuations, with the offshore RMB reaching around 7.08 in early September before dropping below 7.14 the following week [1]. - The recent depreciation of the RMB is attributed to a temporary rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which rose to a two-week high of 98.6044 on September 25 [2]. Internal and External Factors - The "strong dollar, weak RMB" trend is a result of multiple converging factors, including the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts and seasonal demand for foreign currency [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's recent comments on inflation and employment risks have tempered market expectations for significant rate cuts, providing temporary support for the dollar [2][3]. Economic Recovery and Trade Relations - The RMB's overall trend this year has been one of appreciation, driven by both internal recovery and external factors, with experts predicting that short-term fluctuations will not alter the long-term stability of the RMB [4][5]. - Positive developments in China-U.S. trade negotiations have contributed to a more stable outlook for the RMB, as the People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining the currency's stability at a reasonable equilibrium level [5].