Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the pricing logic of non-ferrous metals, emphasizing the rise of strategic resource populism as a key factor influencing market pricing, particularly after the implementation of equal tariffs in the second half of 2025 [2][3]. Non-Ferrous Metals Market Analysis - The traditional pricing framework for non-ferrous metals has been driven by global macro liquidity, economic expectations, and the US dollar index, but recent years have shown a divergence between metal prices and global economic indicators [4][6]. - The current economic environment is characterized by low global PMI levels, yet non-ferrous metal prices have outperformed expectations, indicating a shift in market dynamics influenced by monetary attributes and strategic reserve demands [4][7]. Trading Framework and Historical Performance - The core trading framework focuses on the economic cycle, particularly inventory cycles, with liquidity as an important extension. However, this framework has faced challenges in the non-ferrous metals sector due to unique supply and demand dynamics [6][7]. - Historical trading experiences highlight the importance of adhering to a core framework while recognizing the evolving market conditions, leading to successful investments in precious metals and strategic small metals [9][10]. Sector-Specific Insights - Precious Metals (Gold, Silver): The article notes a strong performance in gold and silver due to anticipated changes in US monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, with significant gains observed over the past three years [9][10]. - Strategic Small Metals (Antimony, Tungsten, Rare Earths): The author emphasizes early positioning in strategic small metals, benefiting from export controls and geopolitical shifts, resulting in substantial price increases [11][12]. - Industrial Metals (Copper, Aluminum): Despite a generally positive long-term outlook, concerns remain regarding the sustainability of demand due to ongoing issues in the real estate sector and uncertainties in US economic growth [13][14]. 2026 Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - The market for non-ferrous metals is expected to remain active, but the author advocates for a cautious approach, focusing on identifying clear entry points rather than participating in the current market excitement [16][17]. - Industrial metals are viewed with caution due to unresolved concerns about the real estate market and the sustainability of AI-driven capital expenditures, with a recommendation to monitor these sectors closely [17][18]. - For strategic small metals, the long-term outlook remains positive, but current high prices necessitate waiting for favorable entry points [20][21]. - Precious metals continue to show long-term benefits, but short-term caution is advised due to market volatility and the need for clear buying signals [21][22]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while the non-ferrous metals market is currently vibrant, the focus should remain on waiting for definitive buying opportunities rather than engaging in all market trends, emphasizing the importance of patience and strategic decision-making in investment [22][24].

美元指数走强对欧元构成压制。1月13日美元指数上涨0.28%，14日早盘延续回升。美元支撑主要来自市场避险需求与美国经济韧性。市场普遍预期美联储 在1月会议将维持现有利率水平。 1月14日亚洲早盘，欧元兑美元维持弱势震荡，市场交投谨慎。截至发稿，欧元兑美元报1.1639，较前一交易日收盘微跌0.0007。 当日汇价开盘于1.1646，最高触及1.1645，最低下探1.1635，波动区间收窄。 通胀数据直接影响央行政策走向。2025年12月欧元区通胀率回落至2.0%，达到欧洲央行目标水平。服务业通胀率为3.4%，食品烟酒价格上涨2.6%，非能源 工业产品价格上涨0.4%，能源价格同比下降1.9%。 通胀回归目标区间巩固了欧洲央行的政策维稳立场。欧洲央行已连续六个月将存款便利利率维持在2%，并明确表态短期内不会调整政策。欧元区流动性环 境和利率水平保持稳定，难以对欧元形成直接推动。 美联储与欧洲央行的政策预期存在分化。欧洲央行上调2025-2026年经济增长预期，同时对经济放缓风险作出预警；美联储维持相对稳健的政策基调。这种 政策差异使资金流向更偏向美元资产。 欧元区经济基本面难以提供强劲支撑。企业投资与家庭消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing weak fluctuations against the US dollar (USD), with a slight increase observed, while market sentiment remains cautious due to various economic indicators and central bank policies [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Australia's November CPI increased by 3.4% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.65% and down from the previous value of 3.8%, but still above the target range of 2%-3% [1]. - The Westpac consumer confidence index for January fell by 1.7% month-on-month to a three-month low of 92.9, indicating a slowdown in household spending and a cautious consumer attitude under high interest rates [1]. - Despite these challenges, Australia's economy shows resilience, with a projected GDP growth of 2.1% year-on-year by Q3 2025 and a stable unemployment rate at a low of 4.3% [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Policies - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.6% for three consecutive times, with Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser indicating that a rate cut is unlikely in the near term [1]. - Market expectations suggest that the RBA may initiate rate hikes as early as June, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's slower pace of potential rate cuts [1]. Group 3: Commodity Influence - As a commodity currency, the AUD is supported by strong iron ore prices, with forecasts indicating a 5%-7% increase in coal prices by 2026, alongside improvements in global supply-demand dynamics [2]. - However, the strengthening USD, bolstered by the resilience of the US economy and safe-haven buying, is exerting downward pressure on the AUD [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD is currently in a consolidation phase, with key resistance levels at 0.6720 and 0.6750, while support is focused on the recent low of 0.6675 [2]. - If the AUD breaks below 0.6675, it may test the 50-day EMA support at 0.6634, with further declines potentially reaching the 0.6600 level [2]. - The 14-day RSI stands at 60.55, indicating moderate bullish momentum without reaching overbought territory, suggesting limited potential for a trend breakout in the short term [2].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，美元指数1月13日上涨0.28%，在汇市尾市收于99.134。截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换 1.1649美元，低于前一交易日的1.1672美元；1英镑兑换1.3435美元，低于前一交易日的1.3466美元。1美 元兑换159.11日元，高于前一交易日的158.14日元；1美元兑换0.8006瑞士法郎，高于前一交易日的 0.7970瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3887加元，高于前一交易日的1.3871加元；1美元兑换9.2132瑞典克朗，高 于前一交易日的9.1693瑞典克朗。 ...

2025年12月，美国未季调CPI年率2.7%，预期2.7%，前值2.7%；季调后CPI月率0.3%，预期0.3%。美国 未季调核心CPI年率2.6%，预期2.7%，前值2.6%；季调后核心CPI月率0.2%，预期0.3%。 尽管交易员们仍认为，6月降息是最可能的结果，但利率期货市场定价显示，美联储4月降息的概率约为 42%，高于通胀数据发布前的38%。 纽约联储总裁约翰·威廉姆斯称，尽管当前通胀受关税等因素影响有所上行，但潜在趋势有利，并未出 现广泛的物价压力。他预计，通胀率可能在2026年上半年达到峰值，随后逐渐放缓，并有望在2027年回 落至2%的目标水平。关税对通胀的影响预计将在2026年开始减弱。抛开这一暂时性因素，通胀趋势总 体向好。 威廉姆斯还表示，当前美国劳动力市场并未出现快速恶化迹象，预计今年将趋于稳定并逐步走强。他同 时指出，随着通胀风险减弱，就业市场面临的下行风险正在上升。他强调，美联储必须在控制通胀的同 时，避免对就业造成过度冲击。 新华财经北京1月13日电美国劳工部周二公布的数据显示，2025年12月通胀总体温和。核心通胀略低于 预期，交易员们加大了美联储降息押注，美元指数短线下跌。 ...

Group 1: Economic and Political Context - The U.S. Department of Justice plans to sue Powell, driven by immense election pressure from the Trump administration to lower interest rates ahead of the midterm elections[2] - High credit card and mortgage rates are limiting U.S. consumer spending, with polls indicating significant election pressure on the Trump administration[8] Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - The Trump administration's actions may counteract its goal of lowering medium- and long-term interest rates, as rate cuts could increase inflation risks and steepen the yield curve[2] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised, leading to decreased attractiveness of U.S. assets and downward pressure on the dollar index[2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Increased expectations for interest rate cuts could benefit commodities like copper and aluminum, as well as emerging market equities[2] - The current U.S. real interest rate is approaching the natural rate, suggesting potential for significant economic growth if rates are cut, but also posing risks for re-inflation[8]

Core Viewpoint - Gold (XAU/USD) is currently consolidating near historical highs, with traders awaiting the latest U.S. consumer inflation data to guide market direction [1] Group 1: Market Influences - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy path is dominating the movements of gold and the U.S. dollar [2] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts within the year, which has led to a lack of substantial buying support for the dollar, indirectly providing a bottom support for gold prices [2] - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December is seen as a key indicator, with expectations of a 0.3% month-on-month increase and a year-on-year rate of 2.7% [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a clear upward channel, with the lower boundary formed at $3920.24 per ounce and short-term resistance between $4650 and $4656 per ounce [4] - The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is trending upwards, indicating a bullish market sentiment, with a significant support level at $4255.80 per ounce [4] - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows increasing bullish momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 70.26, indicating an overbought condition that may limit further upward movement in the short term [6]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures are experiencing a strong oscillation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 8866.00 yuan and currently trading at 8772.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.32% increase [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Zhengxin Futures indicates that palm oil continues its oscillating strong trend, supported by a decrease in production and an increase in exports as reported in the MPOB December report, which noted a month-end inventory of 3.05 million tons [2]. - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures anticipates a short-term strengthening of palm oil prices, citing macroeconomic factors such as the investigation into the Federal Reserve Chairman and geopolitical tensions in Iran, which have contributed to rising oil prices [3]. - Hualian Futures expects domestic oilseeds to maintain a strong oscillating trend, with signs of improvement in palm oil exports in January and potential favorable developments regarding Canadian canola tariffs [3]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Insights - The MPOB report indicates that Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory for December was 3.05 million tons, slightly above expectations, but the market has absorbed this bearish news [3]. - High-frequency data shows a reduction in Malaysian palm oil production and an increase in demand in early January, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics and support price recovery [3].

每经AI快讯，1月13日，美元指数升破99，日内涨0.1396%，现报99。 ...

周二亚洲早盘，美元指数小幅反弹，交投于98.94附近，报价98.935，日内微涨0.26%。 在政策层面，尽管外部环境存在干扰因素，但货币政策独立性得到明确强调。美联储重申政策制定将基于经济数据和运行情 况，而非其他因素影响。这一态度获得多方支持，有助于降低市场对政策不确定性的担忧，对美元走势形成间接支撑。 经济数据方面，美国近期公布的12月非农数据显示，失业率为4.4%，略低于市场预期，一定程度上缓解了对就业市场走弱的 担忧。同时，美国在人工智能等新兴产业领域的持续投入，吸引了部分国际资本流入，强化了其经济基本面的相对优势。 从阶段性走势来看，美元指数自1月初以来维持震荡上行格局。1月2日至12日期间，指数自97.905逐步攀升至98.90附近，累计 涨幅超过1%，多头动能逐步积累。但需要注意的是，99.00整数关口附近抛压较为明显，上一交易日未能有效站稳，反映短 线获利回吐与继续上行之间仍存在博弈。 技术面分析显示，日线级别美元指数运行于5日和10日均线之上，均线系统呈现多头排列，整体趋势结构偏向上行。MACD指 标已脱离零轴下方区域，红色能量柱持续放大，显示中期动能正在改善。RSI指标维持在51上方，未 ...