根据白宫发布的行政命令，美国对华关税增加125%，加上3月份就开始实施的20%所谓芬太尼问题施加的关税，美国累计对华关税已达145%，堪称疯狂。 中国方面早有准备，先祭出84%的关税反制，然后又宣布将"尊重观众选择"，拟减少美国电影的进口。此举可谓直掐美国命门，此举导致美国电影公司股票 暴跌。而今，中国又宣布了125%的关税反制措施。其实，此时中美之间已经没有贸易的可能性，此后再相互追加关税，已经毫无意义。 当时特朗普的逻辑是，外国的廉价产品大量充斥美国的市场，而美国的工人却得不到工作和收入的保障。正如他的口号"复兴制造业"一样，他要让美国自己 的制造业振兴起来，从而把其他国家的商品"赶出去"。 所以，他鼓励外国公司迁往美国，特朗普曾说过："我希望德国汽车公司成为美国汽车公司。我希望他们在这里建厂。"这样，他可以对外国进入本国的商品 征税，而对本土企业减免税务，不仅赚了外国的关税，还能提升本土制造业的产能。 （二）填补贸易逆差 美国为什么会有巨大的贸易逆差，其实，美国的经济是以第三产业（服务业）为主。因此，他在货物贸易（第一、第二产业方面）中肯定是有贸易逆差的， 而且，贸易逆差主要集中在中国、墨西哥、越南、德 ...

Group 1 - The EU has issued a warning that if a mutually acceptable solution is not reached, countermeasures will take effect by July 14 at the latest [1][8] - The EU's countermeasures include previously approved but suspended tariffs on US goods worth €21 billion in response to Trump's steel and aluminum measures [8] - A second part of the EU's response involves preparing additional tariffs on US products worth €95 billion, targeting industrial goods such as Boeing aircraft and American-made cars [8] Group 2 - Recent court rulings have determined that the Trump administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs is overreaching and unconstitutional [4][5] - The US International Trade Court ruled that trade balance and fentanyl import issues do not constitute an emergency under IEEPA, thus invalidating the tariffs [4] - The legal disputes surrounding IEEPA may escalate to the US Supreme Court, potentially affecting the negotiation positions of various trade partners [2][6] Group 3 - The Hinrich Foundation has reported that recent indecisive trade policy decisions in Washington are unlikely to be resolved in the short term, leading to long-term economic uncertainty for governments and businesses [7] - The EU is actively engaging in negotiations with the US, with meetings scheduled between EU Trade Commissioner and US Trade Representative [7][9] - There is a recognition that while the Trump administration aims to balance the trade deficit with the EU, breakthroughs may only occur in agricultural products due to price competitiveness [9]

这么一来，顶多算是回到了一个新的起跑线，离什么里程碑还远着呢，更逗的是，五天后，5月15号，中美贸易代表又跑韩国首尔亚太经合组织会议上碰头 了，具体聊了啥，外面人还是两眼一抹黑。 那边厢，美国财长贝森特倒是透了点风，他说未来几周，中美还得接着谈，目标是搞个"更完整的协议"，这话听着挺美，可他立马又补了一刀，说美国对中 国的关税想降到传说中的10%，"不太可能"。 关于特朗普要降低对华关税的消息，这几天可谓是接踵而至，但我们这边的态度依旧很明确，对华关税不归零，中国是不可能给美国机会的。 日内瓦那场经贸会谈一结束，市场上确实小小地欢呼了一阵，双方都说要降关税，听着像那么回事儿，按5月12号的说法，中国取消了之前针对美国加税的 部分反制，名义上，大家又回到了4月2号那会儿的关税水平，这纸声明，一度被吹成了重大利好。 可仔细咂摸咂摸，这"进展"味道就有点怪了，有人说得挺实在，那些取消的关税，本来就是贸易摩擦升级后的产物，压根儿就不该有。 还有20%的所谓"芬太尼税"。 这笔税是在特朗普时期额外加征的，中方一直认为这是毫无道理的，此次联合声明中，美方对"芬太尼税"只字未提，仅仅取消了4月2号之后新增的关税，显 然是想 ...

Core Viewpoint - A U.S. court has ruled that Trump's tariff policy is invalid, raising questions about presidential authority in trade matters and causing significant market reactions [3][9][10]. Group 1: Background and Context - The tariff policy was announced by Trump on April 2, aimed at addressing perceived unfairness in the global trade system and reducing the trade deficit [5][6]. - The policy imposed varying tariffs on multiple countries, intending to pressure them into renegotiating trade agreements [6][8]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The tariffs have negatively affected global economic stability, leading to rising costs for U.S. companies, particularly those reliant on exports, and increasing consumer prices [6][8]. - Economists and industry associations have warned that high tariffs could disrupt global supply chains and weaken U.S. competitiveness in international markets [8]. Group 3: Legal and Political Reactions - The court's ruling was based on the U.S. Constitution, which assigns tariff authority to Congress, not the president, and deemed Trump's claims of a national emergency unfounded [9][10]. - Despite the ruling, Trump plans to appeal, indicating a potential prolonged legal battle over the tariff policy [10][12]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the court's decision, global markets reacted strongly, with U.S. stock futures showing significant gains, reflecting investor optimism about the potential repeal of the tariffs [11][13]. - A successful repeal could restore confidence in global markets, encouraging multinational companies to increase foreign investments and enhancing capital flow [13].

美国法院一纸判决，把特朗普的关税大刀砍崩了！ 就在上周，三位联邦法官联手裁定：特朗普对全球加征的三种关税全部违法，政府不仅要取 消关税，还得给企业退钱加付利息！ 这场面好比超市突然宣布之前收的"保护费"不算数，还得倒贴8%利息赔给商家。 最惨的是英国——刚和美国签完"不平等条约"接受10%关税，转头发现全世界可能就剩自己还在交钱。 而中国企业被多收的34%关税也在退款名 单里。 不过别急，特朗普已经拍桌子告到最高法院，关税大战进入加时赛… 美国国际贸易法院的裁决像颗炸弹，直接炸碎了特朗普的关税堡垒。 5月底，由三名法官组成的合议庭宣布：特朗普引用《国际紧急经济权力法》对所有贸易伙伴加征关税属于越权。 法官们白纸黑字写道："总统没有无限收税的权力。 英国陷入史诗级尴尬。 就在判决公布前三天，英国贸易大臣还炫耀英美新协议："我们用开放农产品市场，换来了全欧洲最低的10%基础关税！ "结果现在全球关税可 能归零，英国反而成了唯一扛着10%关税的国家。 更扎心的是，英国去年对美国贸易顺差高达180亿英镑，若别国关税取消，英国商品在美国市场将彻底失去竞争力。 "这份判决书明确列出三类必须取消的关税：针对加拿大、墨西哥2 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar strengthened against the euro, pound, and Swedish krona, while it weakened against the Swiss franc, yen, and Canadian dollar, with the dollar index rising by 0.05% to 99.328 [1] - The US international goods trade deficit for April was reported at $87.6 billion, significantly lower than the expected $143 billion and the revised $162.3 billion from March [1] - The US personal consumption expenditures price index increased by 0.1% month-on-month in April, matching market expectations, while the year-on-year increase was 2.1%, slightly below March's 2.3% [1] Group 2 - The German consumer price index for May rose by 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.2% and April's 0.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1] - The likelihood of the European Central Bank lowering interest rates increased due to inflation data being close to the 2% target [1] - The Bank of England's external member Alan Taylor suggested that the central bank should consider lowering interest rates due to economic growth risks from the US-China trade war [2] Group 3 - Japan's consumer price index for May increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with the core index rising by 3.6%, and industrial production for April grew by 0.7%, exceeding the expected 0.1% [2] - The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by the end of the year is now estimated at 67% following the latest data [2] - Canada's GDP for March rose by 0.1%, and the annualized growth rate for the first quarter was reported at 2.2%, surpassing the expected 1.6% [2]

Core Insights - The latest PCE data indicates a slowdown in consumer spending in April 2023, aligning with a moderate inflation rate, suggesting a potential economic deceleration [1][2]. Inflation Metrics - The PCE price index for April showed a year-over-year increase of 2.1%, down from 2.3% previously and below the expected 2.2%. Month-over-month, it rose by 0.1%, consistent with prior expectations [2][3]. - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.5% year-over-year, marking the lowest level since March 2021, and was revised from a previous estimate of 2.7% [2][3]. Consumer Spending and Income - Real consumer spending adjusted for inflation increased by only 0.1% in April, following a 0.7% rise in March. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by 0.2% month-over-month, down from 0.7% [2][3]. - Nominal wages and salaries continued to grow, increasing by 0.5% for the third consecutive month, while the savings rate reached 4.9%, the highest in nearly a year [2][3]. Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed significantly by 46% in April to $87.6 billion, with imports decreasing by $68.4 billion to $276.1 billion and exports increasing by $6.3 billion to $188.5 billion [8]. - The Trump administration is considering a "Tariff B Plan" to impose tariffs of up to 15% on a wide range of goods, which could impact consumer spending and inflation [6][9]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark overnight interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% since December 2022, with market expectations indicating a potential rate cut of 50 basis points by the end of the year [11][12]. - Economists predict that the negative effects of tariffs may become evident in the June data, influencing the Fed's future decisions on interest rates [10][15].

据央视新闻报道，美东时间5月29日，联邦巡回上诉法院批准特朗普政府的请求，暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院此前做出 的禁止执行特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEPPA）对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决。 上诉法院在裁决书中说，在本法院审议相关动议文件期间，美国国际贸易法院在这些案件中作出的判决和永久性禁令将 暂时中止，直至另行通知。 联邦上诉法院是美国联邦司法系统中的中级上诉法院，管辖范围包括美国国际贸易委员会、基于美国宪法第三条的审判 庭、美国国际贸易法院、专利商标局专利申诉与抵触委员会等。如果对结果不满意，双方当事人都可以直接向最高法院 上诉。 尽管九大法官构成中保守派占据绝对优势，但目前不清楚未来最高法院是否会作出有利于特朗普政府的法理解释。 自4月2日开始，特朗普政府援引IEPPA，对大多数贸易伙伴加征10%的所谓对等关税，随后又特别针对来自加拿大、中 国和墨西哥的商品征收高额税款，自称是为了扭转美国长期巨额贸易逆差，以及打击非法移民和毒品。 分析普遍指出，IEEPA对"紧急状态"定义模糊，且未明确授权总统以国家安全为由加征全面关税。该法赋予总统在国家 紧急状态下对经济交易进行"调控"的权力，但不包括 ...

Group 1 - Silver T+D is currently trading above 8163, with an opening price of 8228 and a current price of 8168, reflecting a decrease of 0.21% [1] - The highest price reached today was 8230, while the lowest was 8161, indicating a bearish short-term trend in the silver T+D market [1] - Resistance levels for silver T+D are identified in the range of 8294-8360, while support levels are noted between 8150-8190 [3] Group 2 - Discussions within the Trump administration are ongoing regarding dual response strategies to trade issues, with no final decision made yet [2] - The recent court ruling allows Trump's emergency tariffs to remain in effect during the appeal process, potentially delaying any alternative plans [2] - The National Economic Council Director's statements appear contradictory to the ongoing discussions, asserting that trade negotiations will continue unaffected [2]

Group 1: Trade and Economic Policy - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that President Trump's imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded legal authority, emphasizing that the Constitution grants Congress exclusive power over foreign trade [1] - The ruling indicates a potential shift in trade policy and could impact future tariff decisions and international trade relations [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed that most policymakers acknowledged facing "difficult trade-offs" in the coming months, with concerns about rising inflation and unemployment [3] - There are warnings about increasing recession risks and the need to monitor recent volatility in the bond market, which could pose risks to financial stability [3] - Changes in the dollar's safe-haven status and rising U.S. Treasury yields may have long-term economic implications [3] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - International gold prices have seen a significant decline, breaking the key support level of 3280 and reaching around 3245, indicating a bearish trend [4] - The daily chart shows a four-day consecutive decline, with MACD indicators suggesting a potential shift to a bearish trend if it falls below the zero line [4] - Short-term trading strategies suggest selling on rallies around the 3282-93 range, with support targets set at 3260-3250 and further down to 3209 if broken [6]