研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 度陷入僵局，未来经济预期摇摆不定，金银比中长期中枢上移的背景下，金银价走势相关性下行，白银或 维持震荡偏弱运行。短期内，贵金属市场或维持区间震荡格局，关注后续关税谈判进展以及美联储官员最 免责声明 新发言。操作上建议，暂时观望为主，沪金2508合约关注区间：730-770元/克；沪银2508合约关注区间： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 7800-8200元/千克。COMEX黄金期货关注区间：3200-3260美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货关注区间：31.20- 32.80美元/盎司。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-05-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/ ...

当前的偏鹰基调转为鸽派，并开启新一轮的降息周期，中长期对于黄金来讲属于利多因素，短期内金价受 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 中美关税乐观预期影响或相对承压，回调压力仍存。白银方面，受全球贸易格局缓和预期提振，白银的工 业和商品属性的提振支撑银价，短期内金银比有望阶段性回落，但伴随全球央行购金需求稳步增长，金银 免责声明 | | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-05-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 761.72 | -5.96 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8195 | -24 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 214778 | 197 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 280768 | 92030 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 108018 | 1618 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 136345 | -7331 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market, highlighting the decline in long positions for most metals except copper and palladium, and the implications of U.S. economic conditions and Federal Reserve policies on these markets [2][7][24]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - As of last Tuesday, all U.S. precious metal futures saw a decrease in fund long positions, with only copper and palladium continuing to rise [2][7]. - The gold fund long positions fell by 5% week-over-week, marking a continuous decline for seven weeks, while the net long position dropped to 349 tons, the lowest in 62 weeks [7]. - Silver's fund long positions increased by 2%, but the net long position decreased to 4,704 tons, maintaining a net long position for 62 weeks [7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July dropped from 76.4% to 50.1%, while the probability of maintaining the rate in September increased from 6.2% to 12.6% [2][23]. - Concerns are raised about persistent inflation in April and May, which could lead the Federal Reserve to prioritize dollar stability over economic support [24]. - The article suggests that if inflation remains high, the Fed may not cut rates as anticipated, potentially leading to higher rates in the future [24][26]. Group 3: Commodity Price Trends - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 30.7%, while fund long positions have decreased by 24.7% [7]. - The article notes that the copper market is facing challenges due to economic recession fears, despite general optimism among experts [18]. - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio has declined, indicating that mining stocks have underperformed relative to gold prices [20]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Predictions - The article highlights the potential for geopolitical risks to increase, particularly with the upcoming U.S. elections and the implications for monetary policy [25]. - It suggests that if the Fed begins to cut rates but inflation pressures resurface, it will pose a significant challenge for future monetary policy [27]. - The article concludes that strategies such as shorting base metals and holding cash or gold may be prudent in the current market environment [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the increasing gold-silver ratio, indicating that gold retains its monetary attributes more strongly than silver, which has a more pronounced commodity nature [1][5][6] - The gold-silver ratio has historically fluctuated, with significant increases observed during economic downturns, particularly in the 1980s and post-2008 financial crisis [2][3][6] - The recent rise in the gold-silver ratio is attributed to concerns over a potential U.S. economic recession, alongside the stronger monetary characteristics of gold compared to silver [5][6] Group 2 - The global silver supply is projected to be approximately 31,574 tons in 2024, with an expected increase of around 480 tons in 2025, primarily driven by mining output [11] - Silver's supply is increasingly influenced by by-products from copper and lead-zinc mining, with a notable portion of silver production coming from these sources [13][17] - The demand for silver is categorized into industrial, jewelry, and investment needs, with industrial demand expected to grow by about 4% in 2024, particularly driven by the solar energy sector [19][20] Group 3 - Speculative demand plays a crucial role in the pricing of precious metals, with gold being favored over silver during times of economic uncertainty [28][30] - The inflow of funds into gold ETFs often correlates with significant price increases, highlighting the impact of speculative trading on gold prices [30] - The Basel III regulations have enhanced the status of physical gold as a reserve asset for central banks, contributing to increased gold purchases and further supporting its price [32][33]

李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 LSEG Workspace用户可以搜寻CFTC寻找最新数据： | | | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | | | Nymex铂金 | Nymex把金 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (截至4月29日) | 물 | 跟上周比较 | 발 | 跟上周比较 | 官 | 跟上周比较 | 를 | 跟上周比较 | | 管理资金的净多头量 | 360 | -7. 8% | 4, 860 | +19. 4% | -3 | +76. 2% | -42 | -1.4% | | 多头量 | 483 | -5. 6% | 6.657 | +15. 9% | 45 | +11. 2% | 8 | +4. 4% | | 空头量 | 123 | +1. 8% | 1.796 | +7.5% | 48 | -11.5% | 50 | +1.8% | 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced significant volatility, with prices soaring from $2500 per ounce in mid-2024 to a peak of $3500 by April 2025, followed by a sharp correction of over 7% within weeks, raising concerns about the sustainability of the bull market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The gold-to-silver ratio has reached an extreme of 100:1, significantly above the historical average of 70:1, indicating potential for either a downward adjustment in gold prices or a strong rally in silver prices [3]. - The gold-to-platinum ratio has climbed to 3.5, whereas it typically fluctuates between 1 and 2 over the past 20 years, suggesting that gold may be severely overvalued relative to platinum [3]. Group 2: Drivers of Gold Price Surge - The surge in gold prices from 2022 to 2023 was driven by escalating global geopolitical tensions, leading central banks, including those of China and Poland, to significantly increase their gold reserves, thereby boosting demand [4]. - The announcement of tariffs by the Trump administration heightened trade tensions and market uncertainty, prompting investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Expectations of the Federal Reserve shifting to a loose monetary policy in 2025 further enhanced gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset, reducing its opportunity cost compared to other investments [4]. Group 3: Changing Market Dynamics - Recent positive signals from the White House regarding trade negotiations have reduced market risk aversion, while a strong rebound in the dollar index has put downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.23%, with real yields approaching 2%, diminishing gold's attractiveness as an investment [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Key upcoming events include the decision on whether to reinstate tariffs after the 90-day pause and the timing of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, both of which will significantly influence market sentiment and gold prices [5]. - Despite short-term pressures, analysts maintain a long-term optimistic outlook for gold, citing the U.S. federal debt surpassing $36 trillion and ongoing geopolitical complexities as factors that will continue to support gold's value as a safe-haven asset [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in gold prices driven by a decline in the US dollar and heightened demand for safe-haven assets, with June 2025 gold futures rising by $96.1 to $3343.5 per ounce, marking a 2.96% increase [1] - Analysts note that the US dollar index fell by 0.2% to 99.828, contributing to the upward movement in gold prices, which are expected to remain above $3000 in the short term [1] - The market is anticipating the results of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged, potentially marking the last clear outcome of the year [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs reported that gold is expected to outperform silver due to strong central bank demand for gold, which is a structural factor in the rising gold-silver ratio [2] - On the same day, silver futures for July delivery increased by $0.495 to $32.675 per ounce, reflecting a 1.54% rise, although this was lower than the increase in gold prices [2]

李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 现时市场对贵金属的情绪和对短/中期的一个价格判断。美国每周五收市后公布的CFTC数据，记录日为刚过 去的周二(如果过去一周原本工作日是假日的话数据出炉会延期)。 概要 上周三鲍威尔表示，美国在新政策下，将会面对失业率上升、通胀存在上升压力，对央行来说会 是困难重重，因为大部分政策的影响在通胀和失业中只能选其一；鲍同时认为即使美股急跌，联 储局不会突然在非议息日中减息。 另一方面，联储内部曾讨论是否应停止销售债券(售卖债券的结果是将市场里的流动现金收走)，结 果他们维持销售但卖债量减少75%，所以联储局已经透过减少卖债来维持市场里较多的资金流 动。 美联储于5月7日维持息率不变的机率从三周前的55.4%升回至上周五的89%。市场认为联储还会在 6月减息的机率从两周前的73.7%跌至上周五的62.5% (即6月减息机会下降)。 特朗普想踢走鲍威尔，委任另一个自己人这样便可以立即降息。不过理论上联储运作独立于美政 府，所以 ...

这是一个主要从美国每周的CFTC数据公布基金(Managed Positions)在当地期货市场的各种部署，继而反映 现时市场对贵金属的情绪和对短/中期的一个价格判断。美国每周五收市后公布的CFTC数据，记录日为刚过 去的周二(如果过去一周原本工作日是假日的话数据出炉会延期)。 概要 李冈峰 欧洲天然资源基金 Commodity Discovery 特约分析师 上周三鲍威尔表示，美国在新政策下，将会面对失业率上升、通胀存在上升压力，对央行来说会 是困难重重，因为大部分政策的影响在通胀和失业中只能选其一；鲍同时认为即使美股急跌，联 储局不会突然在非议息日中减息。 另一方面，联储内部曾讨论是否应停止销售债券(售卖债券的结果是将市场里的流动现金收走)，结 果他们维持销售但卖债量减少75%，所以联储局已经透过减少卖债来维持市场里较多的资金流 动。 美联储于5月7日维持息率不变的机率从三周前的55.4%升回至上周五的89%。市场认为联储还会在 6月减息的机率从两周前的73.7%跌至上周五的62.5% (即6月减息机会下降)。 特朗普想踢走鲍威尔，委任另一个自己人这样便可以立即降息。不过理论上联储运作独立于美政 府，所以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in gold investment from older generations to younger individuals, highlighting the increasing interest and participation of younger investors in the gold market, despite skepticism from older generations about the speculative nature of such investments [3][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Investment Trends - The price of gold has increased by 30% this year and 28% last year, leading some young investors to take loans and leverage their assets to invest in gold, viewing it as a guaranteed profit opportunity [5][11]. - The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with central banks continuing to purchase gold, which supports the bullish trend in gold prices [12][11]. - Despite the high current gold prices, there is still optimism about future increases, although the article suggests caution regarding further investments at these levels [11][13]. Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has also been in a bull market since 2022, but its price movements tend to lag behind gold, creating opportunities for investors to capitalize on the time difference between gold and silver price increases [16][22]. - The gold-silver ratio, which indicates the relative value of gold to silver, has historically averaged around 60, and significant deviations from this average suggest potential trading opportunities [28][30]. - The article notes that the recent extreme fluctuations in the gold-silver ratio are influenced by market fear and greed, as indicated by the VIX index, which has shown similar patterns in past market cycles [41][46]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article posits that while gold's price increase reflects a decline in currency credibility, silver's price movements are more speculative and tied to its industrial use rather than a return to monetary status [95][97]. - The potential for silver prices to rise is acknowledged, with projections suggesting that silver could reach prices above $40 if the gold-silver ratio stabilizes around 80 [86][87]. - The article warns that while silver may follow gold's upward trend, its lack of intrinsic value as a currency could limit its price appreciation compared to gold [96][98].