Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dilemma of whether to hold stocks or cash during the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday, highlighting historical trends that suggest a tendency for positive market performance after the holiday [1]. Group 1: Historical Market Trends - From 2006 to 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown an 80% probability of rising in the five days before the Spring Festival, with a maximum increase of 9.82% and a minimum decrease of 4.57% [1]. - The probabilities of the index rising in the five, ten, twenty, and thirty days after the Spring Festival are 75%, 70%, 80%, and 60%, respectively, indicating a generally positive trend post-holiday [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Post-Holiday Market Performance - **Capital Flow**: There is a cyclical return of capital post-holiday, as funds that left the market for risk aversion during the holiday return, leading to increased trading volume [2]. - **Policy Support**: The period around the Spring Festival often sees a surge in macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting consumption, which supports market confidence and directs funds towards beneficial sectors [3]. - **Market Sentiment**: Investor sentiment tends to recover after the holiday, with a shift from caution to optimism, driven by improved consumption data and a deeper understanding of the "Spring Festival effect" [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The post-holiday period typically sees a seasonal improvement in economic activity, particularly in sectors like consumer goods and manufacturing, which supports earnings expectations for listed companies [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - **Aggressive Investors**: Recommended to maintain over 70% equity exposure, focusing on high-growth sectors such as technology and renewable energy [8]. - **Moderate Investors**: Suggested to adopt a balanced approach with a mix of defensive assets and growth opportunities, maintaining a half-position in equities [9]. - **Conservative Investors**: Advised to keep cash positions below 30%, with options for reverse repos and money market funds, while considering broad index funds for market participation [10].

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to show strength in AI application concepts, with companies like Zhongwen Online and Jiecheng Co. experiencing significant stock price increases [1] - Zhongwen Online reached a 20% limit up after a strong performance, while other companies such as Jiecheng Co., Rongxin Culture, and Sanlian Hongpu also showed robust gains [1] - The AI video generation model Seedance 2.0, launched by ByteDance, has gained attention for its ability to create high-quality videos from text or images in just 60 seconds, featuring a unique multi-scene narrative function [1] Group 2 - Jiecheng Co. saw a stock increase of 20.03%, with a total market value of 22.5 billion and a year-to-date increase of 53.08% [2] - Rongxin Culture experienced a 20% rise, with a market value of 4.278 billion and a year-to-date increase of 63.10% [2] - Zhongwen Online's stock rose by 12.64%, with a market value of 29 billion and a year-to-date increase of 58.20% [2]

AI应用概念股持续拉升，此前字节旗下Seedance2.0视频模型进行内测，小云雀app可体验Seedance2.0 （限免次数3次），Seedance2.0fast即将上线。 2月10日，A股震荡走高，三大股指盘初小幅上涨，AI应用概念股持续拉升，算力硬件股早盘活跃，光 伏产业链调整。港股高开高走，恒指、恒科指双双涨超1%，科网股全线反弹，阿里涨近3%。 债市方面，国债期货震荡盘整。商品方面，国内商品期货分化，沪银、沪锡等金属期货走高，多晶硅、 工业硅等下跌。核心市场走势： | 什么样 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 淵跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 4130.99 | 7.90 | 0.19% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 14222.99 | 14.55 | 0.10% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 3333.34 | 0.57 | 0.02% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | | 4724.03 | 4.97 | 0.11% | | 000016 | FiFF ...

2月10日，延续昨日强势，港股市场AI应用股今日再度集体走强，其中，迅策(3317.HK)拉升涨超12%至68港元，为连续第二 日大涨。 消息面上，近日，一款名为Seedance2.0的AI视频生成模型再度刷屏海内外互联网。开源证券发布研报称，字节跳动在即梦 平台上线Seedance2.0视频生成模型，引发AI产业界广泛测评与讨论，且实测效果惊艳。其支持文字、图片、视频、音频等 各类素材输入，并生成视频，在自运镜和分运镜、全方位多模态思考、音画同步生成、多镜头叙事能力等几个关键能力上 实现突破。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 | 迅策(日线,前复权) ✿◎ MA MA5:57.120 ↑ MA9:56.100 ↑ MA19:58.534 ↑ MA30:55.989 ↓ | 设置均线。 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 65.950 +8.92% | 2025/12/30-2026/2/10(30根) ★ | | | Mi 14 10 1 160 | | | | | | 72.050 | | 72.050 | | | | | | 66.378 | | | | 6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to show strong performance in AI application concepts, with companies like Zhongwen Online and Jiecheng Co. experiencing significant stock price increases following the introduction of the AI video generation model Seedance 2.0 by ByteDance [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Zhongwen Online reached a limit-up of 20% after a strong performance the previous day [1] - Other companies such as Jiecheng Co., Rongxin Culture, Sanlian Hongpu, People's Daily, Zhangyue Technology, and Xinhua Net also showed strong market performance [1] - Jiecheng Co. saw a stock price increase of 20.03%, with a total market value of 22.5 billion [2] - Rongxin Culture's stock rose by 20%, with a market value of 4.278 billion [2] - Zhongwen Online's stock increased by 12.64%, with a market value of 29 billion [2] Group 2: AI Technology Development - Seedance 2.0, an AI video generation model, can create cinematic-quality videos from text or images in just 60 seconds [1] - The model features a unique multi-shot narrative capability, generating multiple interconnected scenes from a single prompt while maintaining consistency in characters, visual style, and atmosphere [1] - Tim, a well-known tech blogger, praised Seedance 2.0 for its industry-level performance in generating precision, continuity, and audio-visual synchronization [1] - Tim indicated that the capabilities of Seedance 2.0 could disrupt traditional film processes by 2026, marking a significant transformation in the film industry [1]

Group 1 - The overall equity market experienced adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.27% to 4065.58 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 2.11% to 13906.73 points [8][10] - The convertible bond market showed weak fluctuations, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 0.05% and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index decreasing by 0.36% [15][16] - The bond market saw most yields rise, with the 1-year government bond yield increasing by 2.08 basis points, while the 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year yields decreased [18][19] Group 2 - The commodity futures market weakened overall, with significant declines in silver prices, which dropped by 9.06%, while gold prices increased by 1.65% [9][28] - The market for agricultural products showed mixed results, with CBOT soybeans rising by 4.75% and corn increasing by 0.58% [9][10] - The overall commodity index experienced a decline of 4.49%, with precious metals leading the drop at 17.11% [27][30]

（2）创新药方面，2~3月为港股药企业绩披露窗口，多家有望迎来减亏或扭亏；展望全年，AACR(4 月)、ASCO(5月)、ESMO(10月)等学术会议渐次到来，国产创新药有望进一步带来临床数据的兑现。 关注港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）及其联接C（025806.OF），被动跟踪国证港股通科技指数，该 指数在恒生科技基础上，龙头权重更集中（阿里巴巴、腾讯控股合计占比30%），同时兼顾创新药龙头 （药明生物/信达生物/康方生物）。港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）在深圳证券交易所上市，并支持 T+0日内灵活回转交易，为A股投资者提供低门槛、免开跨境户和免换汇的便利。 2月10日盘初，港股AI应用、创新药板块延续昨日涨势。阅文集团、智谱涨超6%，快手-W涨超4%，药 明生物、康方生物、信达生物涨超2%，港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）盘中涨1%。 综合招商证券、国金证券等机构观点，港股科技资产前期回调较为充分，后市催化增多： （1）AI应用方面，腾讯、阿里纷纷在春节期间进行大模型宣传、快手可灵年化ARR超预期、DeepSeek 或在春节期间发布最新V4大模型。 ...

快手：网信办罚款靴子落地，可灵3.0迭代有望拉动流水和估值 整体看，可灵更适合专业创作者，在实际创作应用中灵 快手：网信办罚款靴子落地，可灵3.0迭代有望拉动流水和估值 #2月6日，北京市互联网信息办公室对北京快手科技有限公司处以警告及1.191亿元人民币罚款，因其未履行网络 安全保护义务等问题。 快手App未下架整改，罚款约占档期利润0.5%，靴子落地。 #可灵3.0版本迭代，同时seedance发布2.0产品。 #2月6日，北京市互联网信息办公室对北京快手科技有限公司处以警告及1.191亿元人民币罚款，因其未履行网络 安全保护义务等问题。 快手App未下架整改，罚款约占档期利润0.5%，靴子落地。 #可灵3.0版本迭代，同时seedance发布2.0产品。 整体看，可灵更适合专业创作者，在实际创作应用中灵活度和自由度都比较高，目前观察到几个对比： 1）时长：均支持15s视频，可灵超长续写至2min，seedance不支持续写； 2）素材：可灵支持≤4张图片参考，seedance多模态自由度更高，支持9图+3视频+3音频； 3）分辨率：可灵分辨率上限4K，专业影视级画质输出，seedance支持； 4）成本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market sentiment is affected by various factors such as policy announcements, geopolitical situations, and seasonal trends. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and adjust strategies accordingly. [18][20][110] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The index shows a bullish arrangement, and the market sentiment is optimistic. However, the trading volume has decreased, and the market may fluctuate in the future, but the upward trend remains unchanged. The recommended trading strategies include going long on a single - side, conducting IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short arbitrage, and using bullish spreads for options. [19][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to strengthen, but the profit - taking behavior increases. The short - term yield may provide a short - selling opportunity, and the long - term yield may be cautious. The recommended strategies are to take profits on the long position of TL at high prices and pay attention to the potential strengthening of the T - contract inter - period spread. [22][23] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply pressure is large, and the international supply is relatively loose. The domestic market is also well - supplied, and it is expected to oscillate. The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short term. [25][26] - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is rising, and the domestic price is expected to remain high. The international sugar price may oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar contract is also expected to oscillate at the bottom. The recommended strategies include waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options. [28][33] - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market maintains a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to go short lightly at high prices or wait for a callback to go long. The y59 spread can be considered for reverse arbitrage at high prices. [36][37] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price in the production area is stable, and the futures price oscillates at a high level. The recommended strategies include a bullish view on the outer - market 03 corn after stabilization, short - selling the 03 corn lightly at high prices, and expanding the spread between 05 corn and starch at low prices. [40][41] - **Pigs**: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle options. [42][43] - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates in a narrow range. It is recommended to short - sell the 03 peanuts lightly at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell pk603 - C - 8200 options. [45][47] - **Eggs**: As the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, the egg price has declined. It is recommended to short the June contract on a single - side, wait and see for arbitrage and options. [48][49] - **Apples**: The pre - holiday sales are good, and the price is firm. It is recommended to go long on the May contract at low prices, short the October contract at high prices, and conduct long - May and short - October arbitrage. [52][54] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamentals change little, and the cotton price is supported. It is expected that the US cotton will oscillate weakly in the short term, and the Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate within a range. It is recommended to hold a light position during the Spring Festival. [56] Black Metals - **Steel**: The demand continues to decline, and the steel price oscillates. It is recommended to follow the market sentiment and oscillate weakly on a single - side, short the coil - coal ratio at high prices, and hold the short - coil - long - rebar spread. [59][60] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal mines are on holiday, and the spot trading is cold. The market is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to trade in bands or wait and see. [61][63] - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals continue to weaken, and the ore price runs weakly. It is recommended to run weakly on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [64][66] - **Ferroalloys**: As the long holiday approaches, it is recommended to take partial profits on the long positions at high prices, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options. [67][68] Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market sentiment stabilizes, and gold and silver recover. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see and hold an empty position during the holiday, while aggressive investors can hold long positions on Shanghai gold and silver with appropriate positions. [71][72] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The regional disputes are complex, and the precious metals oscillate widely. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish on platinum and palladium, buy at low prices, and conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage. [75][76] - **Copper**: As the Spring Festival approaches, it is recommended to operate cautiously. The copper price rebounds after the panic subsides. [77][78] - **Alumina**: The expected marginal change in production capacity causes the price to fluctuate more. It is recommended to oscillate strongly in the short term and participate cautiously. [80][82] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The risk preference is repaired, and the medium - term expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to oscillate and rebound on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [83] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It mainly follows the outer - market aluminum price. It is recommended to oscillate strongly on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [87] - **Zinc**: It is recommended to wait and see. The zinc market is affected by the holiday, and both supply and demand decrease. [88][89] - **Lead**: It oscillates within a range. It is recommended to wait and see due to the weak supply and demand during the holiday. [92][93] - **Nickel**: Although the pre - holiday market cools down, the bottom is rising. It is recommended to watch more and move less before the holiday and go long lightly after the price stabilizes. [94][96] - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to watch more and move less before the holiday and go long at low prices after stabilization. [98][99] - **Industrial Silicon**: The technical side is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize. [100] - **Polysilicon**: The industry self - discipline and price - supporting expectations rise again. It is recommended to watch more and do less and wait for a good safety margin. [101][103] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Under the strong regulatory environment, funds continue to flow out before the holiday. It is recommended to reduce the exposure before the holiday. [104] - **Tin**: The tin price may oscillate strongly. It is recommended to control the position before the holiday. [107][108] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: Pay attention to the implementation of price increases and the geopolitical situation in Iran. The market oscillates, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday and conduct 6 - 10 positive arbitrage at low prices. [110][111] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The risk premium rebounds, and the international oil price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to oscillate widely on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [113][114] - **Asphalt**: The spot prices in various regions are basically stable. It is recommended to oscillate at a high level and go long on the BU2606 contract at low prices. [115][118] - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur spot trading slows down, and the geopolitical drive continues. It is recommended to oscillate strongly and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations, take profits on the FU59 positive arbitrage at high prices, and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse arbitrage. [120][122] - **LPG**: The domestic fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to oscillate on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [124][125] - **Natural Gas**: The risk sentiment on both the supply and demand sides eases to a certain extent. It is recommended to hold short positions on the TTF and JKM third - quarter contracts and the HH second - quarter contract. [128][130] - **PX & PTA**: The polyester production reduction is gradually realized, and the weaving sales gradually stop. It is recommended to oscillate and sort out on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [133][134] - **BZ & EB**: The supply returns, and the basis declines. The fundamentals weaken. [135][137] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. It is recommended to oscillate weakly on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [139][140] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber factories reduce production as planned. It is recommended to oscillate and sort out on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [142][143] - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production decreases, and the supply is reduced. It is recommended to oscillate and sort out on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [144][146] - **Propylene**: The supply and demand support is acceptable. It is recommended to oscillate and sort out on a single - side and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [148][149] - **Plastic PP**: The growth rate of PP apparent consumption slows down. It is recommended to hold long positions on the L 2605 contract and set a stop - loss at 6710 points, and wait and see for the PP 2605 contract and pay attention to the support at 6600 points. [150][151] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price strengthens. It is recommended to oscillate on a single - side. [153][154] - **PVC**: It mainly oscillates. It is recommended to go long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage and options. [155][157] - **Soda Ash**: The price weakens. It is recommended to short at high prices before the holiday, conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage, and sell call options. [158][160] - **Glass**: The price oscillates. It is recommended to short at high prices before the holiday, conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage, and sell call options. [161][162] - **Methanol**: It oscillates widely. It is recommended to go long at low prices, pay attention to the 59 positive arbitrage, and sell put options on a callback. [163][164] - **Urea**: It runs strongly. It is recommended to operate cautiously on the futures. [166][167] - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates weakly. It is recommended to operate within a range and for aggressive investors to lay out a small number of long positions based on the previous low. [169][172] - **Offset Printing Paper**: As the Spring Festival approaches, it is in the off - season, and the market is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices and sell OP2604 - C - 4200 options. [173][174] - **Logs**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the market is dull. It is recommended to wait and see and take profits on the 3 - 5 reverse arbitrage. [176][178] - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The semi - steel tire inventory is significantly reduced. It is recommended to try to go long on the RU 05 contract lightly and set a stop - loss at 16020 points, and wait and see for the NR 04 contract. [179][181] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The semi - steel tire inventory is significantly reduced. It is recommended to try to go long on the BR 04 contract lightly and set a stop - loss at 12585 points. [182][184]

恒生指数高开0.65%，恒生科技指数涨0.82%。科网股多数上涨，网易涨超2%，中芯国际、阿里巴巴涨 超1%。泡泡玛特涨超2%，公司称2025年集团全IP全品类产品全球销售超4亿只。 东方财富证券认为，恒生指数12倍的PE（TTM）和恒生科技指数处于历史19%分位的估值水平，对南 向资金极具吸引力。短期看，南向资金流入能提振情绪；中长期看，将增强内地资金定价权。 银河证券指出，展望未来，全球地缘政治风险扰动仍存，美联储降息预期下降，预计港股持续震荡。配 置方面，建议关注以下板块：（1）科技板块仍是中长期投资主线，在产业链涨价、国产化替代、AI应 用加速推进等多重利好共振下，有望震荡上行。（2）地缘政治局势反复无常，能源、贵金属（核心 股）等板块有望震荡上行。（3）消费板块当前估值处于相对低位，临近春节，促消费政策有望增多， 消费板块有望实现反弹。 本文转载自"腾讯自选股"，智通财经编辑：陈筱亦。 关于港股后市 建银国际指出，港股投资逻辑已变，正从传统的估值修复转向基于"新质生产力"和高质量发展的估值重 估。新兴市场资金显著偏好中国资产，欧美长线资金回流虽慢但趋势已现。 ...