本报北京8月11日电 （记者王观）国家税务总局最新统计数据显示：截至今年6月底，全国有1.33万户资 源回收企业向167万名自然人"反向开票"，开票金额5152亿元，开票份数511万份。 （文章来源：人民日报） 2024年4月29日起，为配合推动新一轮大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动，进一步提升资源回收企 业向自然人收购报废产品时取得发票的便利性，税务部门明确在资源回收行业实施"反向开票"政策。一 年多来，"反向开票"政策在助力"两新"政策落地、规范行业秩序、促进循环经济发展等方面发挥积极效 应。 在政策引领和市场推动下，废物回收、拆解、再利用产业链条也"转"得更好。数据显示，仅今年前4个 月，国内报废汽车回收量就达276.7万辆，同比增长65%；规范拆解的废旧家电超过700万台，同比增长 25%；废弃电器电子产品回收量以70%的同比增速领跑行业。 ...

Group 1 - The "reverse invoicing" policy has effectively addressed the long-standing issue of "source invoice shortage" in the resource recovery industry, facilitating smoother transactions for companies [2][3] - Companies like Wuhu Chery Resource Technology Co., Ltd. have reported significant reductions in financial costs due to the ability to issue invoices directly to individuals, with an expected increase in vehicle dismantling volume by over 100% this year [2][3] - The policy has encouraged more enterprises and individuals to participate in the recycling of waste materials, supporting the implementation of the "two new" policies [2][3] Group 2 - Awareness of compliance among individuals and enterprises in the resource recovery industry has increased since the implementation of the "reverse invoicing" policy [3] - Tax authorities have intensified policy promotion efforts, leading to improved understanding and acceptance of the invoicing process among natural persons selling waste [3] - The number of individuals transitioning to individual businesses and obtaining tax registrations has increased significantly, with over 150 individuals in a specific city registering as individual businesses since the policy's implementation [3] Group 3 - The "reverse invoicing" policy has supported the resource utilization and harmless treatment of waste materials, with companies like Guangxi Guiwu Recycling Resource Co., Ltd. issuing over 56 million yuan in invoices since the policy's implementation [4] - The financial savings from streamlined invoicing processes are being reinvested into resource deep processing, with a utilization rate of over 98% for recyclable materials [5] - The domestic scrap vehicle recovery volume reached 2.767 million units in the first four months of this year, a year-on-year increase of 65%, while the number of properly dismantled waste appliances exceeded 7 million units, up 25% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "Two New" policy is being enhanced to further stimulate investment and consumption, with a focus on equipment updates and consumer goods replacement programs [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Growth - The market scale for equipment updates is projected to exceed 5 trillion yuan annually as many existing assets reach their end-of-life [2]. - In 2024, 150 billion yuan of special long-term bonds will support over 4,600 projects across 12 sectors, including industrial and environmental infrastructure [2]. - By 2025, the funding for equipment updates will increase to 200 billion yuan, expanding support to additional sectors such as electronic information and agricultural facilities [2]. Group 2: Equipment Update Impact - The total number of equipment updates in key sectors is expected to surpass 20 million units in 2024, with significant year-on-year growth in related manufacturing sectors [3]. - Industries such as medical equipment and general parts manufacturing have seen profit increases of 12.1% and 9.5% respectively, indicating a positive impact from the equipment update policies [3]. Group 3: Consumer Activation - There is substantial potential for consumer goods replacement, with over 7 million passenger cars and 180 million household appliances exceeding their safe usage period [4]. - In 2024, 150 billion yuan will be allocated to support the replacement of old consumer goods, with the funding increasing to 300 billion yuan in 2025 [4]. - The sales generated from consumer goods replacement programs are projected to exceed 1.3 trillion yuan in 2024 and 1.6 trillion yuan by mid-2025 [4]. Group 4: Policy Implementation and Support - The government is committed to ensuring the effective use of special long-term bond funds, with 690 billion yuan allocated for consumer goods replacement already distributed [7]. - There is a focus on enhancing the efficiency of project implementation and fund allocation to ensure a smooth execution of the "Two New" policies [7]. - The government aims to create a long-term mechanism for updates and replacements, emphasizing strict supervision and risk management [8].

Core Viewpoint - The "Two New" policy is being expanded in terms of supported categories and subsidies, with a focus on enhancing its effectiveness through improved implementation mechanisms and coordination [1] Group 1: Investment Growth - The market scale for equipment updates is projected to exceed 5 trillion yuan annually as many existing assets reach their end of life [2] - In 2024, 150 billion yuan of special long-term bonds will support over 4,600 projects across 12 sectors, including industrial and environmental infrastructure [2] - By 2025, the funding for equipment updates will increase to 200 billion yuan, expanding to include electronic information and agricultural facilities [2] - A total of 1.4 trillion yuan in loans has been signed for technology innovation and equipment updates, with tax policies allowing a 10% deduction on related investments [2] Group 2: Equipment Update Impact - The total number of equipment updates in key sectors is expected to exceed 20 million units in 2024, with significant year-on-year growth in related manufacturing sectors [3] - Industries such as medical equipment and general parts manufacturing have seen profit increases of 12.1%, 10.5%, and 9.5% respectively [3] Group 3: Consumer Activation - There is substantial potential for replacing old consumer goods, with over 7 million passenger cars and 180 million appliances exceeding their safe usage period [4] - In 2024, 150 billion yuan will be allocated to support the replacement of old vehicles and appliances, with funding increasing to 300 billion yuan in 2025 [4] - Sales from the replacement policy are projected to exceed 1.3 trillion yuan in 2024 and 1.6 trillion yuan by mid-2025 [4][5] Group 4: Policy Implementation - The third batch of 69 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement has been allocated, with plans for a fourth batch to meet the annual target of 300 billion yuan [7] - Emphasis will be placed on timely and balanced fund distribution to ensure smooth implementation of the replacement policy [7] - The government aims to enhance support mechanisms and establish a long-term renewal system while ensuring strict supervision and risk management [8]

Core Insights - The "Two New" policy is being expanded to enhance its effectiveness in promoting consumption and investment in various sectors [2][3][8] Group 1: Policy Implementation and Support - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is enhancing the implementation mechanism of the "Two New" policy, focusing on key areas and improving support measures [2][8] - In 2024, 150 billion yuan will be allocated for long-term special bonds to support over 4,600 projects across 12 sectors, including industrial and environmental infrastructure [3] - By 2025, the funding for equipment updates will increase to 200 billion yuan, expanding to include electronic information and agricultural facilities [3] Group 2: Equipment Update and Market Growth - The equipment update market is projected to exceed 5 trillion yuan annually, with over 20 million units expected to be updated in key sectors by 2024 [4][5] - Investment in equipment purchasing is expected to grow by 17.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in related manufacturing sectors [4] Group 3: Consumer Goods Replacement - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significant potential, with over 7 million passenger cars and 180 million household appliances exceeding their safe usage period [5][6] - In 2024, sales from the "old-for-new" policy in automotive, home appliances, and other categories are expected to exceed 1.3 trillion yuan, with 1.6 trillion yuan achieved by mid-2025 [6] Group 4: Funding and Efficiency - The third batch of 69 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" program has been allocated, with plans for a fourth batch to meet the annual target of 300 billion yuan [7] - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of timely fund allocation and balanced usage to ensure the smooth implementation of the "old-for-new" policy [7][8]

Market Performance - The market experienced narrow fluctuations on August 8, with all three major indices slightly declining. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.38% [1] - Despite the overall market decline, several ETFs related to construction materials, photovoltaic, and infrastructure sectors saw gains exceeding 2% [1] ETF Performance - The following ETFs showed notable performance: - E Fund Construction Materials ETF increased by 2.18%, closing at 0.702 [2] - Leading Photovoltaic ETF rose by 2.05%, with a price of 0.497 [2] - Infrastructure ETF also gained 2.05%, closing at 1.146 [2] - Infrastructure 50 ETF increased by 2.04%, closing at 1.103 [2] Industry Outlook - Experts predict that as Chinese engineering machinery companies continue to globalize, their competitiveness in overseas markets is expected to enhance, leading to an increase in market share [2] - The domestic engineering machinery market is anticipated to benefit from the "two new" policy, which is expected to drive ongoing demand for equipment upgrades. Additionally, growth in water conservancy and municipal sectors is likely to support a continued recovery in domestic engineering machinery demand [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the steady growth of national enterprise sales revenue in the first half of the year, driven by various positive factors [1] - Manufacturing industry sales revenue growth outpaced the overall national enterprise growth by 1.5 percentage points, supported by tax incentives and policies [1] - High-tech industries saw a significant sales revenue increase of 14.3% year-on-year, indicating the continuous expansion of innovative sectors [1] - The digital economy's core industry sales revenue grew by 10.1%, reflecting the accelerated integration of digital and real economies [1] - The "Two New" policies have shown clear effectiveness, with machinery equipment purchases increasing by 11.1% year-on-year [1] - Retail sales of home appliances, such as televisions and refrigerators, surged by 45.3% and 56.6% respectively, driven by consumer demand [1] Group 2 - The construction of a unified national market is progressing steadily, with inter-provincial sales accounting for 40.7% of national enterprise sales revenue, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous year [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw remains the main logic for the bond market recently. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market's rebound. The economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened. The keynote for the second half of the year is an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the incremental policies exceeding market expectations may be limited [2][4][30] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market to effectively break below the 60 - day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a decline of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. The China - US economic and trade talks reached a consensus on the extension of tariffs. The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed in June, and multiple departments planned key work for the second half of the year [14][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic data showed certain resilience in the second quarter, with GDP growth exceeding expectations. However, the economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be strengthened [17] 3.2 Policy Aspect - In June 2025, the social financing scale stock increased year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed, indicating that real - sector enterprises are more optimistic about the economic outlook [19] 3.3 Capital Aspect - The bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly, and the capital is already relatively loose. The probability of significant monetary easing such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is low [21] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The issuance of local bonds and special bonds has accelerated recently. The issuance of special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has basically been realized, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [24] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk appetite has increased [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The themes for the second half of the year are anti - involution and maintaining stable economic recovery. The start of infrastructure projects increases the market's expectation of further fiscal and infrastructure efforts. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market, and investors should pay attention to the subsequent trend of the stock market [30]

Policy Impact - The "Two New" policy has effectively promoted consumption and investment, driving related product sales exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan in 2025[2] - The scope of the old-for-new policy has expanded in 2025, with a total sales amount from five categories (automobiles, home appliances, digital products, home decoration, and electric bicycles) surpassing 1.6 trillion yuan by June 2025, exceeding the 2024 sales figures[5] Market Performance - The median market value change for consumer service stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange was -2.21% from July 28 to August 1, 2025, with only 22% of companies experiencing an increase[2] - The total market capitalization of consumer service companies decreased from 123.5 billion yuan to 120.6 billion yuan during the same period[41] Sector Analysis - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for consumer service stocks rose from 52.1X to 53.5X[36] - The median P/E ratio for the broader consumer sector decreased from 72.9X to 72.6X, indicating a slight contraction in valuation[39] Company Highlights - Taihu Snow reported a 70% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching approximately 280.82 million yuan, a 17.75% increase[2] - A total of 63 companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange are identified as beneficiaries of the "Two New" policy, with 10 in the equipment update category and 53 in the old-for-new category[29]

S of In F 证券研究报告 【宏观快评】 进入政策效应观察期——7月经济数据前瞻 主要观点 左观研究 宏观快评 2025年08月03日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:张瑜 邮箱:zhangyu3@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360518090001 证券分析师:陆银波 邮箱:luyinbo@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360519100003 证券分析师:文若愚 3)对于企业利润与现金流。在政府化债与偿还企业欠款、财政支出规模增加、 "反内卷"下大企业对中小企业账期进行调整、居民消费回暖等因素作用下, 关注企业现金流是否能持续改善(企业存款增速、企业活期存款增速)以及企 业盈利能力是否能保持稳定(如 ROA、ROE 等指标)。这对于改善企业资产 负债表,提升企业的支出意愿(如增加费用支出、提升员工薪酬)帮助较大。 一、物价:PPI环比跌幅或明显收窄 * 预计 7月份 PPI同比从-3.6%回升至-3.5%,PPI 环比约-0.1%,较上月的-0.4% 明显收窄。预计7月份 CPI 同比约-0.1%,CPI 环比约 0.3%。PPI 环比依然为 负,一方面是物价上涨反映到 PPI 上存在一定的时 ...