Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [9] Report's Core View - The performance of furnace materials is differentiated, and the upward momentum of finished products is weak. Iron ore prices are strong due to the expected release of restocking demand, while coking coal and coke prices are weak. The fundamentals of finished products in the off - season have limited highlights, and the futures prices have limited upward momentum. If there are still positive releases from the macro and policy fronts later, the phased upward opportunities can still be concerned [3][4][8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Situation - The supply and demand of the industry are marginally weakening, in line with off - season characteristics. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. If there are positive macro and policy factors, there may be phased upward opportunities [5][8] 2. Different Product Analysis 2.1 Iron Element Products - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume has declined. The port inventory has slightly decreased. The daily average hot metal has recovered, but there is a seasonal weakening expectation. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly. For example, the port transaction volume is 60.6(-15.2) million tons, the swap main contract is 104.4(+0.01) US dollars/ton, and the PB powder is 795(+3) yuan/ton [13][14] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak. The arrival volume is low, and the total daily consumption has slightly decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. It is expected that the price will oscillate with the finished products. The average price of East China crushed scrap is 2147(+1) yuan/ton, and the screw - scrap price difference in East China is 996(+8) yuan/ton [15] 2.2 Carbon Element Products - **Coke**: The supply is stable, the demand is supported, and the inventory is low. The cost support has weakened, and the price is temporarily in a dilemma. The futures price is expected to oscillate with coking coal. The quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is quoted at 1490 yuan/ton (-30) [16] - **Coking Coal**: The supply is slowly recovering, the import is at a high level, and the demand has slowed down. The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price is expected to oscillate. The medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1430 yuan/ton (0), and the Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1378 yuan/ton (0) [17] 2.3 Alloy Products - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is strengthened, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward pressure is large. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5600 yuan/ton (0) [21] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost valuation is firm, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron is 5150 yuan/ton (0) [22] 2.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply is disturbed, and the inventory is high. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1090 yuan/ton (-10), and the national average price is 1114 yuan/ton (-7) [18] - **Soda Ash**: The cost has increased, but the supply - demand is in excess. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the long - term price center will decline. The delivered price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1170 yuan/ton (-) [20] 3. Steel Products - The third - round and fifth - batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections may affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are weak, the steel mill profits are poor, the production has decreased, the demand has declined, and the inventory is still high year - on - year. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely. For example, the price of Hangzhou rebar is 3180 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260 (-30) yuan/ton [12] 4. Commodity Index - On November 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities decreased by 0.86% to 2234.87, the commodities 20 index decreased by 0.83% to 2534.70, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.88% to 2208.90. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.98% on that day, increased by 0.40% in the past 5 days, increased by 1.22% in the past month, and decreased by 5.49% since the beginning of the year [103][105]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - Currently, the industry's supply - demand situation is marginally weakening, in line with the characteristics of the off - season. This fundamental pattern is expected to continue, providing limited guidance on price trends. In the short term, the market will maintain an oscillatory trend. If there are still positive macro and policy signals in the later stage, staged upward opportunities can be observed [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased significantly on a month - on - month basis. Both Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries have seen growth. After reaching a peak, the arrival volume has continued to decline on a month - on - month basis. Port inventory has slightly decreased. Although iron ore replenishment demand has not been significantly released, there is still upward momentum in the short term after the previous rapid price decline. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with the finished products [2] Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and the demand for coke is still supported. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices are in a dilemma of rising or falling, and the coke futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal. The supply of coking coal is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [3] Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Steel - The third round and fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have started, which will affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are generally good, but the profitability of steel mills is poor, and the production volume has decreased significantly. The demand has declined from a high level, and the overall inventory of steel continues to decline, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the futures will oscillate widely [7] Iron Ore - Port arrivals have declined on a month - on - month basis, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the average arrival volume is relatively stable. The daily average pig iron production has recovered on a month - on - month basis, but there is still a seasonal weakening expectation. The overall inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. In the short term, after the previous rapid price decline, it is expected to oscillate strongly [8] Scrap Steel - The arrival volume at steel mills has slightly increased this week. The demand for scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased, while the demand in blast furnaces has decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, but the price has a certain cost - performance after the decline, and it is expected to fluctuate with the finished products [9] Coke - After four rounds of price increases, the coking profit has improved, and the supply is temporarily stable. The demand is still supported, and the upstream inventory is low. In the short term, the supply - demand is still tight, and the inventory continues to decline, but the cost support has weakened. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal [11] Coking Coal - The supply is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [13] Glass - The supply is expected to be disrupted. The inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] Soda Ash - The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [14] Ferromanganese - Silicon - The price of ferromanganese - silicon is supported by cost in the short term, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [17] Ferrosilicon - The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The contradictions in the black产业链 are still limited, and the steel market continues the pattern of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The inventory of rebar is decreasing, while the destocking of hot - rolled coils is not smooth. The increase in Tangshan's hot metal production corresponds to the previous concentrated resumption of blast furnaces, but considering the arrival of the maintenance season, hot metal output is expected to decline, and iron ore inventory will continue to increase marginally. Coke has no prominent contradictions and maintains a small - scale destocking. Although coking coal inventory has increased, it is mainly in the Mongolian coal import segment, and the overall inventory is low, so the downward pressure on coal prices is limited. Overall, the current industry's supply - demand situation is weakening marginally, and the short - term oscillation trend remains unchanged. If there are still positive releases from the macro and policy fronts in the later stage, attention can be paid to potential phased upward opportunities [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - After the resumption of work in Tangshan's blast furnaces last week, the output of hot metal in Tangshan has increased, driving up the national hot metal output. However, with the arrival of the steel mill maintenance season, especially in northern steel mills, maintenance plans have been announced one after another. Therefore, it is expected that hot metal output will continue to decline, and iron ore is likely to accumulate inventory, putting pressure on ore prices. In the short term, ore prices will maintain an oscillatory operation. The fundamentals of scrap steel show weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will oscillate following the finished products [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and the demand for coke is still supported. Coupled with strong cost support, the expectation of a fourth round of price increases is high. The coke futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal. The supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supplementary effect is limited. Although the downstream procurement is gradually slowing down, the fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported. However, the futures price is still suppressed by finished products, and it is expected that coking coal prices will oscillate [3] 3.3 Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand situation is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The short - term cost trend supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is also relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, and the bottom support is obvious. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][6][14] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis 3.5.1 Steel - The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the futures price oscillates at a low level. The spot market trading is average, mainly with low - price transactions. Recently, the profits of steel mills and electric furnaces are poor, the steel production has decreased significantly, and the demand has also declined. The overall steel inventory continues to decrease, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year, and there are still contradictions in the fundamentals. In the off - season, the demand is under pressure to weaken, and the futures valuation is low, with limited downward space. Attention should be paid to the potential upward driving force from the macro and policy aspects [7] 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The hot metal output has significantly recovered, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The spot price has weakened. The overseas mine shipping is relatively stable, and the arrival of ships has decreased. The daily average hot metal output has recovered, but there is still a seasonal weakening expectation. The port inventory has increased, and the overall inventory pressure is gradually accumulating. Although there is a seasonal weakening expectation for hot metal, the short - term increase in hot metal and the un - released restocking demand may lead to a short - term oscillatory strengthening. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and hot metal demand changes [7] 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The daily consumption of steel mills has slightly decreased, and the price oscillates. The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and the demand is also weak. The total daily consumption of 255 steel mills has slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. It is expected that the short - term spot price will oscillate following the finished products [8] 3.5.4 Coke - The supply continues to decline, and the hot metal output has increased. The futures price oscillates at a low level. The supply has decreased due to high costs, environmental protection requirements, and some coke oven maintenance. The demand has increased as some blast furnaces have resumed full - production. The upstream coke enterprise inventory remains low. In the off - season, the supply - demand is weak, but the demand support still exists, and the fundamentals have few contradictions. After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, the demand for coke is still supported, and the expectation of a fourth - round price increase is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [8][10][11] 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The supply recovery is limited, and the upstream inventory has slightly increased. The futures price oscillates at a low level. The supply is still tight due to production capacity restrictions in some coal mines. The Mongolian coal import is at a high level, but the high - quality resources are still scarce. The coke production has declined, and the downstream procurement has slowed down, but the upstream coal mine inventory has slightly increased with little pressure. The spot price is still firm. It is expected that the coking coal supply will remain tight, and the price will oscillate [12] 3.5.6 Glass - The destocking this week is limited. Attention should be paid to whether supply reduction through cold - repair can promote upstream destocking. The macro environment is neutral. The short - term supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is high, suppressing the price. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [14] 3.5.7 Soda Ash - The spot trading is good, and the futures price oscillates. The macro environment is neutral. The supply has limited changes, and the demand is stable. The industry is in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The cost support has strengthened, but the downstream demand is declining, and the expected surplus is intensifying. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [14] 3.5.8 Ferromanganese - Silicon - The tender price of HBIS is flat, and the supply pressure is difficult to relieve. The cost increase supports the bottom of the futures price, but the market supply - demand is loose, and the price increase driving force is insufficient. The downstream demand is expected to decline, and the new production capacity is about to be put into use, so the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level around the cost [16] 3.5.9 Ferrosilicon - The pricing of HBIS has slightly increased, but the price is under pressure due to loose supply - demand. The cost support has strengthened, but the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price increase driving force is limited. The production reduction is limited, and the market destocking is difficult. The downstream demand is expected to decline. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level around the cost [16][17] 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2269.39, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index is 2577.33, up 0.54%; the industrial product index is 2223.17, down 0.01%; the PPI commodity index is 1352.02, up 0.54% [100] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on November 13, 2025, is 1983.80, with a daily decline of 0.04%, a decline of 0.30% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.57% in the past month, and a decline of 5.90% since the beginning of the year [101]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel are weak, and both are continuing to find their bottoms. The nickel market is in a situation of "tightening in the long - term, but loose in the short - term" due to the new Indonesian policy, and stainless steel is affected by factors such as real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports [1][3]. - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation, but attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices. Stainless steel prices are also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation due to low demand, inventory accumulation, and a downward shift in cost centers [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 119,300 yuan/ton and closed at 118,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.62% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 98,248 (+28,336) lots, and the open interest was 116,829 (1,929) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation pattern. The new Indonesian policy on nickel smelter investment restrictions may tighten capacity expansion in the long - term, but the short - term production capacity of wet - process intermediate products is still being released. The weak stainless - steel consumption on the demand side leads to insufficient rebound power in the Shanghai nickel market [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market is calm, and prices are stable. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is affected by typhoons, and the shipping efficiency is delayed. The price of downstream nickel - iron is falling, and iron plants have a lower psychological price for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November is expected to be lowered by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. After the Shanghai nickel price fell below 120,000 yuan, the spot market is more watchful, and trading is light. The spot premiums of various brands have not changed. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 31,824 (-468) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,114 (-1,194) tons [2]. Strategy - It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading. Attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply, which may cause a rebound in nickel prices [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,520 yuan/ton and closed at 12,485 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 85,852 (-22,462) lots, and the open interest was 137,838 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the decline in Shanghai nickel prices, the contract continued its weak oscillation. Although domestic steel mills' losses are increasing, the inertia of capacity release remains, and the demand side is still sluggish due to factors such as the real - estate downturn and slowdown in home appliance exports. Overall, stainless steel is still in a bottom - grinding state [3]. - **Spot**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and spot trading is sluggish. Many traders are selling at low prices to recover funds, and the daily quotes continue to decline slightly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,825 (-25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 335 to 685 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 909.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - It is expected that stainless - steel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the policy "vacuum period" and with stable industrial operations, the prices of black building materials oscillated. The iron ore, which had a relatively large decline earlier, rebounded significantly. At night, the sector continued to oscillate, and the coking coal and coke futures prices weakened due to the fourth round of coke price increase negotiations [2][3]. - Currently, the contradictions in the industrial chain are not prominent, and there are no new changes in the macro and policy aspects to affect market expectations. Therefore, the black building materials prices lack a clear trend and are expected to remain volatile in the short term. If there are more favorable policies in the future, there may be a phased upward opportunity [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Port trading volume was 98.8 (-9) million tons. The spot price was strong. Overseas mine shipments were relatively stable but decreased month - on - month. The arrival of goods decreased week - on - week. The daily average molten iron was stable in the short term, but there was an increasing expectation of seasonal decline. The port inventory continued to accumulate, but the marginal supply - demand might improve. It is expected that after a rapid price decline, it will oscillate strongly in the short term [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The average price of crushed scrap in East China decreased by 4 yuan/ton. The supply of scrap steel decreased, and the demand was weak. The overall supply - demand of scrap steel was weak, and it is expected that the spot price will oscillate with the finished products in the short term [10]. Carbon Element - **Coke**: The futures market oscillated at a low level. The spot price in Rizhao Port increased by 10 yuan/ton. The supply was difficult to increase, and the demand was stable in the short term. After three rounds of price increases, the steel mills were resistant to further increases, but the fourth - round price increase was likely to be implemented. The coke price is expected to oscillate with the coking coal [10][12]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply was still tight, and the Mongolian coal import increase was limited. The spot price was strongly supported, but the futures price was suppressed by the finished products. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [13]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The short - term cost supported the price, but the supply - demand was loose, and there was insufficient driving force for price increase. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term cost was strong, but the supply - demand was loose, and the upward driving force was insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The national average price decreased by 3 yuan/ton. The supply might be disrupted, and the mid - and downstream inventories were moderately high. The current supply - demand was in surplus. If there was no more cold repair by the end of the year, the price would be under pressure; otherwise, it would rise [4][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost increased, and the bottom support was obvious. However, the supply - demand surplus suppressed the price increase. Recently, the weakening of the glass price dragged down the soda ash price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [4][15]. Steel - The spot market transactions were weak. The steel mills' profitability decreased, and the production decreased. The demand declined, and the overall inventory continued to decrease, but it was still higher than the same period last year. The fundamentals had contradictions. It is expected that during the off - season, the demand will weaken, and the price will have limited downward space. Pay attention to the potential upward driving force from the macro and policy [9]. Commodity Index - On November 12, 2025, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index, and the PPI commodity index all increased. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.63% on that day, decreased by 1.21% in the past 5 days, increased by 1.24% in the past month, and decreased by 5.87% since the beginning of the year [98][99].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, frequent disruptions at the mine end suggest that medium - to - long - term price rebounds should be monitored [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, as demand recovery falls short of expectations, de - stocking is slow, and cost support is weakening, stainless - steel prices are also likely to stay in a low - level oscillation [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 11, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2512 opened at 119,780 yuan/ton and closed at 119,380 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 69,912 (-12,952) lots, and the open interest was 114,900 (-2,884) lots. In the past month, it had low volatility with an intraday price amplitude of around 1%, indicating a lack of clear market direction due to macro uncertainties and supply - demand contradictions [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has been calm with stable prices. There is strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and the supply - demand price gap persists. Factory procurement enthusiasm is low. In the Philippines, some ports in the Surigao mining area are still recovering from typhoon impacts, and a new typhoon in the Zambales mining area may delay shipments by about 3 days. Overall, nickel ore supply remains stable. The price of downstream nickel - iron is falling, and iron factories are reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 27 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot trading was light, and the spot premiums of each brand remained unchanged. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,292 (-241) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 253,404 (+300) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Mainly adopt range - bound operations. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No specific strategies are provided [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 11, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,630 yuan/ton and closed at 12,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 108,314 (+7,800) lots, and the open interest was 38,421 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a pattern of opening high and closing low. Fundamentally, there were few changes. The implementation of upstream production cuts was in doubt, the production of 300 - series stainless steel remained high, downstream demand did not improve, and de - stocking was slow. Coupled with the overall decline of the black - metal sector, stainless - steel prices trended downward in an oscillatory manner [3]. - **Spot**: Market confidence was further hit. Some traders continued to lower their quotes, but there was no improvement in transactions. Due to high previous purchase prices, the price - cut space for traders is expected to be limited. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 310 - 610 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 912.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No specific strategies are provided [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, affected by the news of winter coal supply guarantee, there were concerns about increased supply, causing the prices of coking coal and coke to decline rapidly. The expectation of loose coal supply and lower price center also negatively affected the prices of alloys and soda ash through the cost side. Other varieties in the sector were relatively stable. During the night session, the prices of steel and ore rebounded slightly, while other varieties remained volatile [1][2]. - In the current traditional off - season, the industry performance is average. Steel and iron ore, which had significant previous declines, have a chance of a phased rebound. Later, the price drive from the industrial side in the off - season is limited, and prices are expected to remain volatile. If there are still positive macro and policy releases later, phased upward opportunities can still be watched [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - The negative feedback transmission in the current industrial chain is not smooth. Steel mills' willingness to actively overhaul is weaker than in the same period of the past two years. Later, as arrivals further decline, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve marginally, alleviating the overall inventory accumulation pressure of iron ore. After a rapid price decline, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. The fundamentals of scrap steel show both weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with finished products [2]. Carbon Element - After three rounds of price increases, steel mills are under great profit pressure and are resistant to further price increases. However, the cost support for coke is relatively strong, and steel mills still have procurement demand. The game between coke producers and steel mills will continue, and the coke price is expected to be volatile. Energy supply guarantee mainly involves thermal coal, and coal supply guarantee during the heating season is in line with expectations. Also, safety production work is emphasized, and the 2025 central safety production assessment and inspection has been launched. The supply of coking coal is still expected to be poor this year, and the spot coal price has strong support, but the futures price is still suppressed by finished products. The coking coal price is expected to be volatile [2]. Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of silicomanganese, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increase. The strong short - term cost trend supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to run at a low level around the cost [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances for glass, but the inventories of middle - and downstream are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, it will return to fundamental trading, and the price may be volatile and weak; otherwise, the price will rise. In the long - term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is still needed. If the market refocuses on fundamentals, the price is expected to continue to be volatile and downward. Recently, due to increased costs and factory cold - repair, the market trading sentiment has improved, and the spot price has slightly increased, but the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. The price above the industry's high - cost line may face certain pressure again. In the long - term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting production capacity reduction [3]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: In the spot market, transactions are generally weak, and market sentiment has weakened. The profitability of steel mills has declined significantly, and seasonal overhauls have increased, leading to a significant drop in steel production. In the off - season, demand is under pressure to weaken, and the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The current futures valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the macro and policy factors that may drive a low - level rebound [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The overseas mine shipment is relatively stable, and arrivals have decreased this week. The demand for iron ore is affected by sintering restrictions and overhauls, and the iron - making water output has declined. The port inventory has continued to accumulate, but the supply - demand may be repaired marginally later. After a rapid price decline, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [7]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel has decreased this week, and the demand shows different trends in short - and long - processes. The overall daily consumption has slightly decreased, and the steel mill inventory has increased. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with finished products [8]. - **Coke**: The futures price of coke followed coking coal and was weak. The supply is difficult to increase due to high costs and environmental protection requirements. Although steel mills have overhaul expectations, the demand support still exists. The game between coke producers and steel mills will continue, and the price is expected to be volatile [8][10]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price of coking coal was weak due to the news of energy supply guarantee. The supply is tight, and imports are also limited. The spot coal price has strong support, but the futures price is suppressed by finished products. It is expected to be volatile [12]. - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro situation is neutral. The supply may be disturbed, but the middle - and downstream inventories are moderately high, and the supply - demand is in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price may be volatile and weak; otherwise, it will rise. In the long - term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is needed [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro situation is neutral. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still at the bottom of the cycle. Recently, the cost support has been strengthened, and the market sentiment has improved, but the long - term supply surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [13]. - **Silicomanganese**: Yesterday, the sharp decline in the coking coal futures price weakened the cost support expectation for silicomanganese. The market supply - demand is loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level around the cost [15]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The decline in the coking coal futures price weakened the cost support for ferrosilicon. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is expected to run at a low level around the cost [17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Coking coal**: Oscillation [3] - **Coke**: Oscillation [3] - **Cross - variety**: None [3] - **Spot - futures**: None [3] - **Options**: None [3] 2. Core Views - In the coking coal market, influenced by the continuous price increase of coal, the short - term replenishment demand from downstream and mid - stream has increased. Meanwhile, safety inspections in the northern regions have become stricter, leading to a price rebound. After the thermal coal price stabilizes, opportunities for shorting coking coal should be monitored [2]. - In the coke market, affected by the rising price of thermal coal, the price of raw coal has increased, and the enthusiasm for replenishment from mid - and downstream has grown. However, as steel mill profits have shrunk significantly, steel mills are strongly resistant, intensifying the game between coking plants and steel mills. The price of coke is oscillating widely, with an upper limit due to the expected steel mill production cuts and a lower limit supported by the rising coal prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1,676 yuan/ton, a 0.57% increase from last week. The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1,179 yuan/ton, a 1.55% increase from last week. Affected by factors such as the post - National Day demand recovery, prices are oscillating strongly [1][5]. Supply - This week, the daily average coke production of independent coking enterprises in the Mysteel sample was 521,800 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 73.99%, a 0.96% decrease from last week [1][25]. Demand - According to Mysteel's research, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, unchanged from last week and 2.59 percentage points higher than last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, a 0.22 - percentage - point decrease from last week but 2.34 percentage points higher than last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a 0.87 - percentage - point decrease from last week and 19.05 percentage points lower than last year. The daily average pig iron output was 240,950 tons, a decrease of 590 tons from last week but an increase of 6,590 tons compared to last year [1][33]. Inventory - The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 595,080 tons, a decrease of 3,290 tons from last week. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 751,870 tons, a decrease of 14,580 tons from last week. Independent coking enterprises had a slight inventory reduction; the total coking coal inventory of the full - sample independent coking enterprises was 829,780 tons, a decrease of 17,210 tons from last week [1][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both coking coal and coke are "oscillation". There are no ratings for cross - varieties, spot - futures, and options [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - From the fundamental perspective, for coke, the high - level oscillation of hot metal production supports the demand for coke, but the relatively high inventory compared to the same period restricts price increases. Coke enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, and some coke enterprises in certain regions have initiated the first round of price increases this week, intensifying the game between coke and steel enterprises. For coking coal, coal mine production is gradually recovering, and the demand is considerable. However, considering that the profitability of coke enterprises narrows after the raw material price increase and the pressure on the steel fundamentals suppresses coking coal to some extent [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1,692.5 yuan/ton, down 2.6% from last week; the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1,196.5 yuan/ton, up 2.88% from last week. This period's prices fluctuated due to factors such as inventory replenishment and accumulation during the National Day holiday [1][5]. Supply - This week, according to Mysteel statistics, the daily average coke output of independent coke enterprises' samples was 53.12 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.31%, a decrease of 0.04% from last week [1][22][30]. Demand - According to Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate was 84.45%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points from last week and 6.22 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.86%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points from last week but 39.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the daily average hot metal output was 242.36 tons, an increase of 1.34 tons from last week and 17.5 tons higher than the same period last year. The hot metal output remains at a high level [1][42]. Inventory - According to Mysteel's survey data, this period, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 644.67 tons, an increase of 11.38 tons from the previous week. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 790.07 tons, an increase of 5.73 tons from the previous week. Independent coke enterprises slightly reduced their inventory; the total coking coal inventory of all independent coke enterprise samples was 999.07 tons, an increase of 58.66 tons from the previous week [2][44].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply surplus pattern of nickel remains unchanged, and with the cost approaching, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, being easily affected by macro news [3]. - For stainless steel, although the demand in the traditional peak season has not shown explosive growth, the social inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks. Affected by the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising raw material prices, the price may stop falling and rebound [4]. 3. Market Analysis Nickel - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2510 opened at 121,220 yuan/ton and closed at 120,990 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from the previous trading day. It fluctuated weakly around the 20 - day moving average, with a daily fluctuation range of 930 yuan/ton, 40% smaller than the previous day. Affected by the 0.26% decline of LME Nickel 3 to $15,240/ton, Shanghai nickel followed the decline, but the decline was smaller than that of the external market [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the price remains stable. In September, 1.3% nickel ore resources in China and Indonesia CIF42 have completed transactions. The mine - end quotation in the Philippines remains firm. The new transaction price of downstream nickel iron is 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and the bullish sentiment is strengthening. The domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in Indonesia in September (Phase I) is expected to drop by $0.2 - 0.3, and the premium is expected to remain at +24. The current supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and Indonesian iron plants mostly stock up as needed [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 122,900 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market transaction of refined nickel has improved, and the premium of each brand of refined nickel has been slightly adjusted down. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 22,013 (- 12.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,676 (456) tons [2]. Stainless Steel - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2510 opened at 12,825 yuan/ton and closed at 12,850 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. It showed the characteristics of falling price, shrinking volume, and a stalemate between long and short positions. The daily fluctuation range was only 105 yuan/ton, 30% smaller than the previous day. The trading volume decreased by about 13,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,188 lots, indicating a decline in market activity [3]. - **Spot**: As the futures market is still in the bottom - building process, the spot market is also weakening, and the spot quotation has been adjusted down. However, the downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the transaction situation has not improved. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,025 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market is also 13,025 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 320 - 470 yuan/ton [3]. 4. Strategy Nickel - **Supply - demand situation**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the cost is approaching. In the short term, nickel prices are mainly in a fluctuating market and are easily affected by macro news. - **Trading strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is mainly range - bound operation; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel - **Supply - demand situation**: Although the demand in the traditional peak season has not shown explosive growth, the social inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks. Affected by the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising raw material prices, the price may stop falling and rebound. - **Trading strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is mainly range - bound operation; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].