对于日本制造业而言，稀土不仅仅是矿石，更是悬在头顶的达摩克利斯之剑。虽然日本方面曾试图对此 轻描淡写，甚至有一位官员硬着头皮对外宣称"断定这是中方施压还为时尚早"，但这种外交辞令掩盖不 了其实际的战略窘境。 早在今年10月，中国就已经进一步加强了稀土出口管制，而在上个月的中美互动中，尽管双方就供应链 达成某种共识，但这个豁免权并不自动适用于所有跟风起舞的第三方。现在的日本，显然就是那个撞在 枪口上的"第三方"。 全球稀土版图中，中国不仅握有七成的产量，更关键的是掌握着高达92%的冶炼分离产能。这意味着， 即便日本费尽心机满世界找矿，从澳大利亚跑到越南甚至拉拢印度搞"进口替代"，那些挖出来的矿土最 终都要送到中国来走一遍提炼流程。 12月7日，日本列岛被一份来自《读卖新闻》的报道搅动得人心惶惶。这篇援引多名政府内部人士消息 的文章透露了一个令日本政府行政中心深感寒意的信号，日本企业向中国提交的稀土出口审批申请，通 过审批的速度出现了非同寻常的"停滞"。 日本官员敏锐的嗅到了其中的不对劲，紧急复盘这是否是中国给出的警告。12月4日，中国商务部刚严 厉敲打了高市早苗涉台的疯话，警告日方再任性就采取"必要措施"。话音 ...

日本政坛这一轮风波，来得快，也来得急。 高市早苗上台之后，把对华关系摆到最前头，话讲得硬，姿态也摆得高，一口咬定要"减少对中国的依赖"，还提出所谓"自主供应链"的构想。 她不是在试探，而是在施压。 可她好像忘了，施压从来不是单向的。 中国这边没着急回应，但动作早就开始了——不是那种一纸公文式的警告，而是从稀土、医药、民生基础品，再到产业技术链条，一层层收紧。 很多人盯着稀土，觉得这是最狠的招数。 其实不是。 稀土只是表皮，底下藏着的东西，日本压根没准备好面对。 先说稀土。 日本这些年喊着"多元化"，拼命往澳大利亚、美国、印度找新来源，投钱建本地提炼厂，看起来热火朝天。 可问题不在矿石有没有，而在能不能用。 稀土从开采到变成手机里的磁铁、电动车里的电机，中间几十道工序，每一步都得靠技术支撑。 中国不光有矿，更有几十年积累下来的精炼、分离、提纯工艺。 日本就算把全世界的矿石都买回来，没有这整套工业能力，照样做不出高端产品。 这不是危言耸听，是现实。 日本在新能源、半导体、精密器械这些领域，全都要用到稀土材料。 一旦中国的深加工环节出问题，哪怕只卡住其中一环，整个生产线就得停。 军工更不用说了——雷达、导弹导引头、 ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple is likely to adopt Intel Foundry's 18A-P process for producing low-end MacBook and iPad chips, which could mark a significant breakthrough for Intel's foundry business by securing a key external customer [1][4]. Group 1: Intel's 18A-P Process - The 18A-P process is a derivative of Intel's 18A technology, introduced during the "Direct Connect 2025" initiative, featuring Foveros Direct 3D hybrid bonding technology that enhances chip integration and performance [5]. - Apple has signed a Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA) with Intel and has received the 0.9.1GA version of the PDK for the 18A-P process, with key simulations and PPA studies meeting expectations [4][5]. - If progress continues smoothly, Apple plans to start mass production of low-end M-series chips based on the 18A-P process as early as Q2 to Q3 of 2027, contingent on the quality of Intel's 1.0/1.1 PDK delivery [4][8]. Group 2: Market Impact and Strategic Positioning - Following the announcement, Intel's stock surged by 10.19%, indicating strong market confidence in the potential collaboration with Apple [2]. - Apple's projected shipment volume for low-end M-series chips is expected to reach between 15 million to 20 million units by 2027, which would significantly boost Intel Foundry's order volume and serve as a key growth driver [6]. - The collaboration reflects Apple's strategy to diversify its supply chain, supporting "Made in America" initiatives by utilizing Intel's advanced wafer fabrication facilities while still relying on TSMC for high-end chips [6]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The adoption of the 18A-P process by Apple could set a precedent, encouraging other fabless companies to follow suit, potentially making this process a mainstream choice in the mid-to-low-end chip market [8]. - The collaboration is still in the "intent stage," with the success of the partnership hinging on the validation of the 18A-P process's PDK sampling and Intel's production capacity and yield performance [8].

在会谈结束后，苹果首席执行官库克表示，印度对苹果来说是一个巨大的商机，在被问及苹果是否还会 继续在印度进行投资时，库克提到，今年初，苹果公司刚刚在印度开设了两家直营零售店。 2014年，莫迪担任印度总理，此次是他首次对美国进行正式国事访问。在周五会谈之后，白宫方面表 示，谷歌将会和印度科学研究院展开合作，项目有关人工智能大语言模型语音数据的开源。 据报道，近日，印度总理莫迪访问美国，和美国总统拜登和其他政界商界领袖进行会谈。美国科技行业 也十分积极，苹果、谷歌、微软等公司的首席执行官们也和莫迪进行了面对面会晤，商讨在印度的发展 机会。 上周五，美国科技行业的领袖们在白宫拜会了莫迪，这次圆桌会谈的焦点是科技公司在印度进行投资面 临的机遇和挑战。而在更早之前，莫迪还和美国纯电车制造商特斯拉公司掌门人马斯克进行了单独会 晤。 美国人工智能厂商OpenAI（ChatGPT东家）的首席执行官奥特曼也在华盛顿参加了这次峰会。两位消息 人士透露，奥特曼和莫迪探讨了在人工智能上进行合作的机会。 美国知名风险投资公司General Catalyst的首席执行官唐内甲（Hemant Taneja）也参加了这次圆桌会议。 唐内甲在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent shift of Apple's OLED panel order for the iPhone 17 Pro from BOE to Samsung Display, highlighting the implications for both companies and the industry as a whole [1][3][5]. Group 1: Order Changes and Technical Issues - Reports indicate that BOE was initially set to supply 10 million OLED panels for the iPhone 17 Pro but faced challenges with LTPO OLED panel reliability and production yield, leading to the order being reassigned to Samsung [3][5]. - The LTPO technology is critical for features like 120Hz adaptive refresh rates, and BOE's panels reportedly had a switching delay of over 15 milliseconds, exceeding Apple's 5 milliseconds requirement, with a production yield of only 32% [3][5]. - Despite claims that BOE resolved these technical issues by mid-November, Apple's supply chain decisions had already been finalized, resulting in Samsung's supply volume increasing from 80 million to approximately 90 million panels for the iPhone 17 series [3][5]. Group 2: BOE's Response and Market Position - BOE responded to the rumors by asserting that its partnerships with global clients remain stable and that all projects are progressing as planned, expressing regret over the misinformation [4][5]. - The company emphasized its commitment to ongoing technology development and collaboration with key clients, indicating a focus on entering the high-end LTPO OLED supply chain [4][5]. - The article notes that Apple's reliance on Samsung and LG Display for OLED panels highlights the challenges faced by Chinese manufacturers like BOE in achieving high-end technology breakthroughs [5].

全球供应链，说白了就是谁家更靠谱谁就赢。过去几年，大家都盯着印度和越南这些地方，以为能接棒中国当制造业新宠儿。结果呢？风向变了快，尤其是 今年特朗普上台后一通关税操作，把印度搞得措手不及。制造业大佬们开始琢磨，中国的基础设施稳，市场大，技术也跟得上，还是得回来多投点。 印度从2014年就开始推"印度制造"计划，目标是到2025年制造业占GDP的25%。当时不少企业觉得机会来了，劳动力便宜，人口红利大。苹果的供应商富士 康从2019年起就在印度建厂，组装手机啥的。三星也在越南和印度砸钱，生产电子产品。 2020年疫情一闹，供应链多元化成了热门词，印度和越南确实捞到不少好处。印度电子出口从2019年的50亿美元蹿到2023年的150亿美元，越南纺织电子也 涨势凶猛。政府还搞生产挂钩激励，补贴电子企业，富士康2022年扩产，雇了好几万人。 越南靠自由贸易协定，拉来耐克阿迪达斯这些品牌。企业们图啥？避开中美贸易摩擦的风险呗。2018年后，关税一层层加，逼得公司分散产能。中国份额降 了，其他地方补上。到2024年初，印度外资流入制造业高峰，越南也稳住8%的占比。印度街头卖的本地组装手机多了，越南年轻人进城打工，经济有点 ...

Core Insights - The chip supply shortage caused by the trade dispute involving Nexperia has put Bosch's factories in Ansbach, Salzgitter, and Braga at risk of shutdown, affecting approximately 3,500 employees [2][3] Factory Impact Summary - **Ansbach, Germany**: 2,500 employees, approximately 650 affected, facing temporary shutdown [3] - **Salzgitter, Germany**: 1,300 employees, 300-400 affected, facing temporary shutdown [3] - **Braga, Portugal**: 3,300 employees, approximately 2,500 affected, facing temporary work hour adjustments or furloughs [3] Background of the Dispute - On September 30, the Dutch government took control of Nexperia citing "national security" and "intellectual property protection" concerns [4] - On October 3, China's Ministry of Commerce retaliated by banning Nexperia China and its subcontractors from exporting domestically produced automotive-grade power semiconductors, impacting about 70% of Nexperia's chip supply globally [4] - On October 26, Nexperia Netherlands suspended wafer supply to its Chinese subsidiary, exacerbating the supply chain disruption [4] - Nexperia holds over 30% market share in the automotive-grade power chip market, with its chips widely used in automotive electronic systems [4] Bosch's Response Measures - Bosch is seeking alternative chip suppliers and evaluating multiple backup options [5] - Implementing a "wafer direct delivery" plan to purchase silicon wafers directly from Nexperia's European factories for packaging in Dongguan, China [5] - Adjusting production plans to prioritize core product lines and customer orders [5] Broader Industry Impact - The crisis has extended to the global automotive supply chain, with major German automakers like Volkswagen and BMW facing chip inventory that can only sustain production for 10-20 days [5] - Honda has been forced to halt production at its Mexican factory, and first-tier suppliers like ZF and Omron are also facing production cuts [5] - On November 19, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs announced a suspension of intervention in Nexperia, returning control to Wingtech Technology [5] - Analysts believe this crisis highlights the vulnerability of the global automotive supply chain's over-reliance on a single chip supplier, predicting a shift towards supply chain diversification among automakers and component manufacturers [5]

Core Viewpoint - Allianz Investment emphasizes that Asian markets, particularly the Chinese stock market, are key diversification choices for investors who are currently overexposed to US equities [1][4]. Group 1: US Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Allianz's Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, Zeng Zheng, predicts further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, with a terminal rate of around 3.5% by mid-2026 [2]. - Zeng notes that the likelihood of the Fed choosing to cut rates is greater than maintaining the current rates, although the exact timing remains uncertain [2]. - Fixed income is highlighted as a core tool for capital preservation amid macroeconomic volatility, with a shift in return drivers expected from credit spreads to interest rate spreads by 2026 [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Asia - Zeng Yonghui, Chief Investment Officer for Asia Pacific equities, points out that many investors are overly concentrated in US stocks, particularly in large tech sectors, and are now reallocating to Asian assets [4]. - The current low allocation of global investors to Asian stocks presents a significant opportunity, especially as Asian stocks have a low correlation with US stocks [4]. - Four key themes driving investment opportunities in Asian stocks include innovation in technology, corporate reforms in major Asian economies, supply chain diversification, and emerging consumer trends [5]. Group 3: China's Economic Strategy - Allianz's Senior Economist, Tang Jicheng, identifies two main focuses of China's economic strategy: continued investment in advanced manufacturing and boosting domestic consumption [7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines five strategic areas for attention, including modern industrial systems, technological breakthroughs, a unified domestic market, human-centered urbanization, and international cooperation [8]. Group 4: Multi-Asset Investment Strategies - Allianz's Head of Growth Multi-Asset, Hartwig Kos, notes that risk assets remain attractive, with a shift towards more diversified global allocations beyond US equities [10]. - The traditional "60/40" stock-bond portfolio remains viable, but flexibility and inclusion of non-core risk exposures like emerging market bonds and gold are essential for resilience [10]. - Gold is reaffirmed as a strategic asset, increasingly driven by geopolitical uncertainties and de-dollarization, making it a crucial component of a diversified investment portfolio [10]. Group 5: Sustainable Investment Trends - Allianz's Head of Sustainable and Impact Investing, Matt Christensen, indicates that sustainable investment regulation is entering a new phase, with a shift from mere disclosure to clearer product classifications in the EU [11]. - Impact investing is maturing, with growing recognition of achieving market-level returns, particularly in private markets, supported by clearer standards for outcomes and reporting [12].

Core Viewpoint - Allianz Investment emphasizes that the Asian market, particularly the Chinese stock market, is a key diversification choice for investors who are currently overexposed to the US stock market [10][11]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Allianz Investment's Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income, Zeng Zheng, predicts that the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates, with the terminal rate expected to be around 3.5% by mid-2026 [5][7]. - Zeng notes that recent US policy signals suggest a potential stabilization in inflation data, although employment data may weaken [6][7]. - The investment return drivers are shifting, with 2025 returns driven by credit spread narrowing, while 2026 returns are likely to be primarily driven by spreads [8]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Asia - Zeng highlights that many investors are overly concentrated in US stocks, particularly in large tech sectors, and there is a trend of Asian investors reallocating funds back to Asian assets [11]. - Four key themes driving investment opportunities in Asian stocks include: 1. Innovation in technology manufacturing, especially in semiconductors, AI, and biotechnology [12]. 2. Corporate reforms in China, Korea, Japan, and Singapore aimed at enhancing shareholder value [12]. 3. Supply chain diversification benefiting markets like India due to reduced geopolitical concentration [12]. 4. Emerging consumer trends driven by domestic consumption and digital infrastructure, particularly in China and India [12]. Group 3: China's Economic Strategy - Allianz Investment's Senior Economist, Tang Jicheng, identifies two main focuses of China's economic strategy: continued investment in advanced manufacturing and boosting domestic consumption [14]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests five strategic areas to watch: 1. Building a modern industrial system with a focus on advanced manufacturing and green transformation [15]. 2. Achieving substantial technological breakthroughs to enhance innovation capabilities [15]. 3. Establishing a strong domestic market to promote free flow of production factors [15]. 4. Promoting human-centered urbanization for balanced regional development [15]. 5. Strengthening international cooperation to enhance bilateral investments [15]. Group 4: Asset Allocation and Gold - Allianz Investment's Head of Multi-Asset Growth, Hartwig Kos, notes that risk assets remain attractive, with a shift towards more diversified global allocations beyond the US stock market [19]. - Gold has reestablished its status as a strategic asset, increasingly driven by geopolitical uncertainties and de-dollarization, making it a crucial component of a diversified investment portfolio [20]. - Hartwig Kos anticipates that the trend of investing in gold will continue until 2026, supported by retail investment flows and geopolitical tensions [20]. Group 5: Sustainable Investment Trends - Allianz Investment's Head of Sustainable and Impact Investing, Matt Christensen, indicates that sustainable investment regulation is entering a new phase, with a shift from mere disclosure to clearer product classifications in the EU [21]. - Impact investing is maturing, with growing recognition of achieving market-level returns, particularly in private markets [21]. - Allianz has developed proprietary tools to integrate ESG and impact risk analysis into portfolio construction, enabling scenario testing and risk mitigation strategies across asset classes [22].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is intensifying efforts to eliminate reliance on Chinese components in its vehicles manufactured in the U.S., reflecting the escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Strategy - Earlier this year, Tesla decided to stop using components from Chinese suppliers for its U.S. manufactured vehicles [3]. - The company is now sourcing parts from other countries to replace some Chinese components, with a goal to completely eliminate all Chinese parts within the next 1 to 2 years [3]. - Since the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the flow of goods from China, Tesla has been working to reduce its dependency on Chinese components and is encouraging Chinese suppliers to establish manufacturing facilities in other countries, including Mexico [3]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs and Supply Chain Disruptions - Following the imposition of high tariffs on Chinese imports by former President Donald Trump, Tesla has accelerated its strategy to exclude Chinese components [3]. - Recent supply chain disruptions, particularly related to automotive chips, have prompted internal discussions at Tesla about the necessity of diversifying its supply chain [3].