Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market saw declines across major indices, with the Dow Jones down 0.19%, S&P 500 down 0.55%, and Nasdaq down 0.95% [5] - European indices showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.36% and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.04% [5] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.7%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.45% [5] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Spot gold reached a new high of $3,790 per ounce before retreating to close at $3,764.02, up 0.46% [7] - WTI crude oil rose 2.05% to $63.53 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 1.81% to $67.22 per barrel [7] - The US dollar index closed at 97.22, down 0.08% [7] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell indicated that the policy rate remains slightly restrictive, suggesting potential for further rate cuts [10] - The People's Bank of China reported a 5.0% year-on-year increase in total electricity consumption for August, amounting to 10,154 billion kilowatt-hours [12]

Group 1 - The recent statements from the UK, Canada, and Australia recognizing Palestine indicate a shift in international relations, with Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu planning a response [1] - Venezuela's Vice President confirmed that President Maduro clarified to President Trump that there are no illegal drug activities in Venezuela, highlighting ongoing diplomatic communications [1] - Iran announced a suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency due to pressure from the UK, France, and Germany to restore sanctions, indicating rising geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2 - Gold experienced significant volatility, with a drop of up to $80 following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, but rebounded strongly to close the week positively [2][4] - Silver reached an annual high, with domestic prices for gold and silver showing strong upward trends, indicating robust market interest [2][4] - The simultaneous rise of gold, silver, US stocks, and the dollar index on the same day is a rare occurrence, suggesting diverse capital flows into different markets [4] Group 3 - The largest gold ETF reported an increase of over 18 tons in holdings, marking a record for September, which reflects bullish sentiment towards gold [5] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is seen as a long-term support factor for gold, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine situation [5] - Gold's price action indicates strong support levels at $3660 and $3640, with potential upward targets of $3730, $3750, and even $3800 in the longer term [7]

Group 1 - Russian President Putin signed a decree on September 18 to dismiss Dmitry Kozak from his position as Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration [2] - Dmitry Kozak submitted his resignation voluntarily, having previously served as Russia's special representative for Ukraine policy and Deputy Prime Minister [4] - The dismissal of Kozak may indicate a shift in Russia's approach to its Ukraine policy [2][4] Group 2 - Former US President Trump expressed disappointment in Putin regarding the complexity of the Russia-Ukraine issue, which he initially thought would be easier to resolve [6] - Trump mentioned that if oil prices drop, Putin would have no choice but to end the war [6] - UK Prime Minister Starmer and Trump discussed increasing defense support for Ukraine during their meeting [6] Group 3 - On September 18, international oil prices saw a slight decline, with WTI crude oil down 0.61% to $63.31 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.71% to $66.98 per barrel [7] - The fluctuation in oil prices may impact geopolitical dynamics and funding for military operations [7] Group 4 - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Ukraine will receive the first batch of weapons under a new funding plan with the US and European allies, including Patriot missiles and HIMARS [8] - Ukraine has secured over $2 billion in funding for US weapon procurement through NATO's "Ukraine Priority Needs List" (PURL) mechanism, with total commitments expected to reach $3.5 billion by October [8] - NATO allies plan to provide $10 billion worth of military equipment to Ukraine, indicating strong international support [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the disappointment expressed by President Trump regarding President Putin's actions in the Russia-Ukraine situation, indicating that the issue is more complex than initially thought [1] - Trump mentioned that if oil prices decline, Putin would have no choice but to end the war, suggesting a potential economic leverage point in the conflict [1] - Prime Minister Starmer stated that discussions included increasing defense support for Ukraine, indicating a commitment to bolster military assistance [3]

Group 1 - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed with US President Trump the need for stronger sanctions against Russia and a plan to protect Ukrainian airspace during a phone call after an online meeting in Paris [1] - Zelensky emphasized the importance of applying pressure on Russia through economic measures to achieve "real peace" in the ongoing conflict [1] - The European Commission President von der Leyen announced that 26 countries in the "Volunteer Alliance" committed to providing security guarantees to Ukraine by deploying military forces under a potential ceasefire or peace agreement [1] Group 2 - Trump indicated that he would soon have a conversation with Russian President Putin, highlighting the ongoing "very good communication" between the parties involved [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The investment market has four levels: preserving capital, controlling risk, earning returns, and achieving long-term stable profits [1] - Recent data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed that the PCE price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in July, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, indicating steady consumer spending but rising inflationary pressures [1][2] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to show an addition of 75,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.3%, which could influence interest rate expectations and gold prices [2][5] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a "slow but solid" upward trend, with key support at 3,423 and potential resistance at 3,470-3,480 [4][6] - The technical analysis indicates that gold's upward momentum remains strong, and traders are advised to focus on buying on dips [4][7] - The core PCE inflation data has sparked discussions about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which could impact gold prices in the near term [1][2] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has seen increased volatility, with Brent crude and WTI prices closing at $67.63 and $64.32 per barrel, respectively, influenced by various factors including demand expectations and geopolitical tensions [5][6] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is expected to confirm plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day, which may further affect oil prices [6][7] - Technical analysis suggests that Brent crude faces key support at $60 per barrel, with potential downside risks if this level is breached [6][7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight precious metals showed a strong sideways movement. The revised annualized quarterly rate of the US GDP in the second quarter was 3.3%, exceeding expectations and the previous value, and the weekly initial jobless claims were 229,000, remaining at a low level. Although the economy is resilient, Trump's dismissal of a Fed governor has led to market concerns about the Fed's independence, which dominated market sentiment. International gold and silver are testing the key resistance at the upper edge of the recent sideways range, and once broken, the upward movement may be sustainable. Attention should be paid to the US PCE data tonight [1] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Content Fed - related - Cook officially sued Trump over the dismissal, with Powell also being a defendant. Cook's lawyer said the mortgage dispute may be due to a "paperwork error." A US judge will hold a hearing on Cook's lawsuit against Trump this Friday, and the case is expected to end up in the Supreme Court. Trump - nominated Fed governor nominee Milan is expected to be confirmed before the Fed's September decision. Fed governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut at the September meeting and expects further rate cuts in the next 3 - 6 months. The second - in - command of the IMF said the market still believes in the Fed's independence, but the actual risks cannot be ignored. ECB Governing Council member Rehn said Trump's pressure on the Fed's independence may have a major global impact on financial markets and the real economy [2] Tariff - related - The EU proposed a legislative proposal to cancel some US goods tariffs to encourage the US to lower auto tariffs. India is expected to increase its September imports of Russian oil by 10% - 20% month - on - month, regardless of US tariff threats. US officials said that in the next six months, a unified tariff of $80 - $200 will be imposed on packages sent to the US, and specific tariff rates will be applied thereafter [2] Russia - Ukraine situation - related - German Chancellor Merz said Zelensky and Putin will not meet. US media reported that Europe proposed a 40 - kilometer front - line buffer zone for Russia and Ukraine [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the statement made by Slovak Prime Minister Fico, emphasizing that the war in Ukraine will not end unless Ukraine abandons its NATO aspirations and accepts territorial losses [1] - Fico criticizes Europe's reliance on the United States for guidance in resolving the conflict, suggesting that Europe should take the lead in ending the war [1] - The article points out the awkward position of Europe, where most countries are both EU and NATO members, indicating a reality where the US effectively leads Europe [1] Group 2 - Fico's remarks underscore the ongoing tension within Europe regarding its autonomy and decision-making in the context of the Ukraine conflict [1] - The article questions when Europe will assert itself and take control of its own destiny rather than being perceived as subordinate to US leadership [1]

Core Points - The U.S. will not deploy ground troops to Ukraine but will assist in maintaining its security [2][4] - Negotiations for a potential meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky are progressing [3][4] - The situation remains tense with ongoing military actions from both sides [5][6][7] Group 1 - Trump guarantees that the U.S. will not send ground troops to Ukraine as part of any potential peace agreement [2] - White House officials indicate that discussions about security guarantees for Ukraine are ongoing [2][4] - The U.S. is exploring other military options, including air operations, to ensure Ukraine's protection [2][4] Group 2 - Plans for a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelensky are being advanced, with multiple potential locations being considered [3][4] - Trump has expressed a desire for direct diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine [4] - The possibility of a three-way meeting involving Trump, Putin, and Zelensky is also being discussed [5] Group 3 - The military situation remains critical, with both sides reporting significant military engagements [5][6][7] - Russian forces have intercepted multiple aerial threats and conducted strikes on Ukrainian military facilities [5][6] - Ukrainian forces have also reported successful interceptions and destruction of Russian military assets [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai copper, the market is speculating on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The fundamental situation has no significant change. The market is waiting for new drivers, with support at 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Thursday [10]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, the price will fluctuate at a high level due to frequent disturbances at the mine end and the approaching peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [11]. - For crude oil, the supply - demand situation is weakening, and the price is expected to decline under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - For asphalt, it is recommended to view it as a weak and volatile market due to the weakening cost side [15]. - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [17]. - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [18]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate downward. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [20]. - For coking coal, the market sentiment is cooling, and the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a high level [21]. - For urea, in the short term, it will mainly show a strong and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 19, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Urea rose more than 3%, PX and rapeseed meal rose more than 1%. Silicon iron fell more than 3%, and manganese silicon, alumina, soda ash, and eggs fell more than 2%. Stock index futures of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined, while treasury bond futures of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year all rose [6]. - As of 15:21 on August 19, in terms of capital flow, palm oil 2601, glass 2601, and soybean meal 2601 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [8]. Shanghai Copper - Supply: In May, refined copper production increased by 14.0% year - on - year. The port inventory of concentrate copper ore has decreased to a five - year low. The collapse of the El Teniente mine has led to a short - term reduction in global supply. The TC/RC fees continue to rise steadily. There is only one smelter with a maintenance plan in August, and a new smelter in East China has started production. Production may decline in the later third quarter [10]. - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm. New orders have increased, but the market trading volume has decreased month - on - month. Real estate still drags down demand, but the power grid and new energy bring demand resilience. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating a weak demand and a loose supply - demand pattern [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: As of the week of August 14, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 424 tons compared with the previous week. The spot price of spodumene has been rising, supporting the price of lithium carbonate [11]. - Demand: The market's purchasing sentiment has increased, and there is a sentiment of holding back sales at high prices. In the short term, the price will fluctuate at a high level due to the approaching peak season and supply - side disturbances [11]. Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. EIA and IEA have raised the forecast of global oil surplus [12]. - Demand: It is in the late stage of the seasonal travel peak. The inventory of crude oil and diesel has increased, and the overall oil product inventory continues to rise. The economic situation in the United States has raised concerns, which will increase the pressure on crude oil prices in the fourth quarter [12]. Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.2 percentage points to 32.9%. The estimated production in August decreased by 5.1% month - on - month but increased by 17.1% year - on - year [15]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries mostly increased last week, but the national shipment volume decreased by 11.34% month - on - month. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries has increased, and the demand is affected by factors such as funds and rainfall [15]. PP - Supply: The operating rate of PP enterprises is around 84%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawstring has decreased to about 25%. A new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased [16]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has rebounded to 49.35%, but it is still at a low level in the same period of previous years. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory pressure is still high. It is expected to enter the peak season soon, and the operating rate of plastic weaving has slightly increased [16]. Plastic - Supply: The plastic operating rate has dropped to about 82.5%. A new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year has been put into operation recently, and the operating rate has slightly decreased [18]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has increased to 39.47%, but it is still at a low level in the same period of previous years. The orders of agricultural films and packaging films have decreased. The consumption off - season has not ended, and the inventory pressure is still high [18]. PVC - Supply: The PVC operating rate has increased to 80.33%. New production capacities will be put into production in August, September. The export expectation in the second half of the year has weakened [19][20]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has slightly decreased. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is large [19][20]. Coking Coal - Supply: The supply data has increased this period, the production of clean coal and raw coal has increased, and the inventory of mine clean coal has decreased [21]. - Demand: The profit of independent coking enterprises has turned positive, and the production of downstream coke has increased while the inventory has decreased. However, the iron - water production has decreased this period, and the profitability of steel mills has weakened. The seventh round of coke price increase has started, but there is resistance from downstream customers [21]. Urea - Supply: The production of urea plants increased last week, and there were both shutdowns and restarts this period, with overall narrow fluctuations [22]. - Demand: Domestic demand is insufficient. The compound fertilizer factories are in the early stage of autumn fertilizer production, and the operating rate has reached a historical high. The melamine operating rate has decreased, and the terminal furniture market is cold. The inventory of urea plants has increased and is at a five - year high [22][23].