申万宏源策略 【申万宏源策略】美联储换帅在即，大类资产影响几何？——全球资产配置热点聚焦系列报告之三十三 原创 阅读全文 ...

回顾2025年，全球大类资产的表现高度依赖于货币政策预期的变化。无论是美股的结构性上涨，还是黄 金、有色金属等资产的阶段性走强，其背后都绕不开"美联储何时、以多快的节奏降息"这一核心变量。 在经历了2025年全球市场的剧烈波动后，2026年的资产配置正站在一个关键分水岭。一方面，美联储降 息预期反复修正，全球流动性环境仍处在"拐点区间"；另一方面，亚洲与新兴市场的相对吸引力持续抬 升，中国资产在全球配置中的角色也正在发生微妙变化。 近日，施罗德2026投策会举行，围绕"全球视野下的资产配置新思路"展开深入讨论。与会嘉宾普遍认 为，全球流动性环境正从"宽松预期"走向"节奏博弈"，结构性机会将主导新一轮资产表现，投资逻辑也 需要随之调整。 宏观环境切换：全球流动性从"宽松预期"走向"节奏博弈" 站在2026年的起点，这一逻辑正在发生变化。 施罗德基金管理（中国）有限公司副总经理兼首席投资官安昀指出，市场正在从"押注宽松"的单一交 易，逐步转向对经济基本面与盈利修复的重新定价。"2025年更多是一种宽松交易和估值修复，而2026 年开始，投资者需要回答的是：宽松能否真正转化为经济复苏与盈利改善。" 从美联储角度看， ...

Group 1 - As of Friday, 167 companies in the S&P 500 index, approximately 33%, have reported their earnings [1] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for the fourth quarter is 11.7%, an increase from last week's estimate of 8.1% [1] - Sales growth for the same quarter is projected at 8.3%, up from 7.8% the previous week [1] Group 2 - In early December, the market's expectation for EPS growth for the fourth quarter was 6.9% [1] - Ameriprise's economic forecasts include actual GDP, unemployment rate, CPI, and core PCE for both annual and quarterly perspectives [1] - The global asset allocation committee's targets include the S&P 500 index and the 10-year Treasury yield under basic, adverse, and favorable scenarios [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing internationalization of Chinese private equity funds, with Hong Kong emerging as the preferred destination for overseas investments, facilitated by the 9th license from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission [1] - As of December 31, 2025, 133 private equity firms hold the 9th license, with 39 of them managing over 10 billion yuan, and Shanghai being a significant hub for these firms [1] - The private equity firm Rido Investment executed an unusual dividend distribution, resetting the net asset value of one of its products to 1.0000, which is uncommon in the industry for newly established products [2] Group 2 - Dongfang Harbor, managed by Dan Bin, reported a significant increase in its holdings in Google, which has become its largest position, reflecting a strategic shift towards technology stocks [3] - Li Bei from Banxia Investment believes that the real estate sector is approaching a turning point, suggesting that opportunities lie in real estate stocks rather than direct property purchases [4] - The white liquor sector, particularly Kweichow Moutai, has seen a strong rebound, with its stock price rising significantly, drawing attention from investors [5][6] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon emphasized the firm's commitment to the Chinese market, noting increased opportunities in investment banking and wealth management as international interest in China grows [7] - The Norwegian Government Pension Fund reported a 15.1% return for 2025, with equity investments being the main driver, particularly in technology, finance, and basic materials sectors [8] - Cathie Wood of ARK Invest predicts a new entrepreneurial era driven by AI, likening current investment trends to a major infrastructure cycle [9] Group 4 - Jinghua Asset's strategy meeting highlighted four key investment opportunities for 2026, including new economy sectors, high-end manufacturing, consumer essentials, and anti-involution themes [10][11] - Three securities firms, Northeast Securities, Kaiyuan Securities, and Shanghai Securities, received full exemption from transaction fees based on their performance evaluations [12] - Zhongtai Securities announced a significant organizational restructuring, establishing separate subsidiaries for underwriting, proprietary trading, and research [13]

Core Insights - In early 2026, the World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached a record 5002 tons in 2025, surpassing the 5000-ton mark for the first time, with a total value of $555 billion, indicating a significant shift in global asset allocation logic [1][5]. Demand Structure - Investment demand was the key driver behind the record gold market in 2025, with gold investment demand rising to 2175 tons, marking a significant milestone. Gold ETFs saw a net inflow of 801 tons, indicating a rare large-scale return of investment [3][4]. - The strong inflow into gold ETFs signifies a shift in investor sentiment, as previously suppressed demand due to high interest rates is being released with the approaching turning point in global monetary policy [3][4]. Consumption Trends - Traditional consumer demand showed some divergence, with global gold jewelry consumption slightly declining in volume due to high prices, yet the total value of jewelry consumption continued to grow, reflecting the resilient nature of gold in the consumer sector [4][5]. - Central bank gold purchases remained a crucial support for gold demand, with net purchases staying at historically high levels, reinforcing the perception of gold as a vital tool for asset safety [4][5]. Macroeconomic Context - The record gold demand in 2025 is attributed to several macroeconomic factors, including persistent inflation above long-term targets, geopolitical uncertainties, and rising credit risks of major currencies, which have enhanced gold's status as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. - Emerging markets played a significant role in the growth of gold demand in 2025, with countries like China and India showing resilience in physical gold and investment demand, counterbalancing cyclical fluctuations in developed economies [5][6]. Future Outlook - Despite gold prices being at historical highs, the supporting factors for demand remain strong, with ongoing uncertainties in the global economy and a trend towards safety and stability in asset allocation likely to persist [6]. - The development of financial instruments like gold ETFs is lowering investment barriers and enhancing market liquidity, suggesting that gold demand may continue to remain elevated [6].

Core Insights - The family trust has evolved beyond mere asset management to become a core tool for wealth preservation and intergenerational transfer, supported by legal frameworks and upcoming guidelines [1] - Good Buy Wealth has reported a 123% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with total managed client assets exceeding 180 billion yuan, showcasing its strong investment research and comprehensive service model [2] - The company emphasizes a multi-channel service matrix and a robust research team to provide tailored financial solutions to over 10 million investors [3] Group 1: Company Overview - Good Buy Wealth has been a leader in personal financial services since its establishment in 2007, recognized for its compliance and operational excellence [2] - The company has received significant backing from Tencent, enhancing its resource and technological capabilities [4] - The management team has an average of over 25 years of experience, with the founder having over 30 years in finance [4] Group 2: Services and Offerings - Good Buy Wealth holds a comprehensive range of licenses, allowing it to provide both domestic and international investment services [5] - The company offers customized family trust services, tax consulting, and charitable planning, addressing various asset types and scenarios [5] - Its product offerings include over 20,000 financial tools, catering to diverse investment needs [3] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The company has established a strong investment research center with over 100 professionals, ensuring rigorous product selection and quality control [6] - Good Buy Wealth employs a unique screening model for fund managers, which has become a reference standard in the industry [6] - Only 0.2% of the over 20,000 management institutions in the market qualify for core partnerships, ensuring high product quality [6] Group 4: Client Segmentation and Growth - As of the end of 2024, Good Buy Wealth managed over 180 billion yuan in client assets, with significant portions from institutional and high-net-worth clients [8] - The company has developed a four-tier service system to provide tailored wealth management solutions based on client asset sizes [8] Group 5: Industry Recognition and Social Responsibility - Good Buy Wealth has been actively involved in philanthropic efforts, including the establishment of educational funds, reflecting its commitment to social responsibility [9] - The company has received numerous industry accolades, with over 90% of its partners being award winners, highlighting its strong market reputation [9] Group 6: Future Outlook - With the upcoming implementation of the Family Trust Business Guidelines, the industry is expected to see more standardized development, which Good Buy Wealth aims to leverage for optimizing family governance solutions [10]

随着中国资管行业在国际舞台影响力不断增强，国寿资产作为国内资管行业头雁，将肩负使命与担当， 进一步发掘与开拓全新的增长动力引擎，积极探索低利率时代的资产配置新方案，在我国金融市场双向 开放过程中发挥主力军作用。 "以投资体系建设、三方业务拓展和布局结构突破为抓手，努力打造具有较强国际竞争力、中国特色世 界一流的综合资产管理平台。"国寿资产总裁于泳近日接受中国证券报记者专访时，勾勒了该公司对未 来的期许和努力的方向。 于泳表示，作为国内头部资管机构，国寿资产的未来增长点，将主要落在投资体系建设和三方业务拓展 等方面。 圈定拉动未来增长的核心 在国际机构IPE"2025全球资管500强"榜单中，国寿资产跻身全球前30名，蝉联中国资管机构首位，这表 明中国资管行业在国际舞台影响力不断增强。 低利率下追求投资合力 随着市场利率不断下行，资管机构普遍面临低利率下"资产荒"的困扰。国寿资产如何破局？ 记者在采访中了解到，资产配置研究的加强和投研方法论体系的跨越升级，是国寿资产的"先手棋"。国 寿资产一直在丰富发展"双线配置"方法论，提升宏观与市场中长期研判水平，转型升级现有大类资产配 置模型和框架，以适应新变化。 具体而 ...

● 本报记者葛瑶 国际资本对中国市场的关注度显著回升。去年境外投资者对中国市场的低配幅度从约2.5%收窄至约 1.3%，减少了约1.2个百分点的低配。瑞银全球金融市场交易部主管贺立言(Neil Hosie)日前在接受中国 证券报记者专访时表示："如果外资进一步降低低配幅度，将意味着可观的潜在资金流入。" 贺立言表示，外资情绪正从此前的观望态度转向"谨慎乐观"。在他看来，中国市场估值优势凸显、企业 治理持续改善、科技创新动能不断增强，叠加全球投资者分散化配置需求上升，配置型资金的入场窗口 有望逐渐打开。瑞银预计中国股市2026年全年涨幅约18%，盈利增速约10%，机器人、人工智能、新能 源汽车、生物科技等科技创新赛道最受关注。 外资谨慎乐观 "谨慎但乐观"，贺立言用这一表述来概括当前外资的情绪基调。他观察到，与一年前同期相比，境外投 资者的心态已发生明显转变。"今年投资者正在做大量工作来深入了解中国公司，这和去年年初相比已 经有了很大不同。"他认为，这一变化在一定程度上受2025年A股市场表现带动：上证指数全年涨幅达 18.41%，沪深300指数涨幅超17%，强劲的市场表现开始吸引全球投资者关注。 交易型资金活 ...

● 本报记者 葛瑶 国际资本对中国市场的关注度显著回升。去年境外投资者对中国市场的低配幅度从约2.5%收窄至约 1.3%，减少了约1.2个百分点的低配。瑞银全球金融市场交易部主管贺立言（Neil Hosie）日前在接受中 国证券报记者专访时表示："如果外资进一步降低低配幅度，将意味着可观的潜在资金流入。" 关注科技创新投资主线 贺立言表示，外资情绪正从此前的观望态度转向"谨慎乐观"。在他看来，中国市场估值优势凸显、企业 治理持续改善、科技创新动能不断增强，叠加全球投资者分散化配置需求上升，配置型资金的入场窗口 有望逐渐打开。瑞银预计中国股市2026年全年涨幅约18%，盈利增速约10%，机器人、人工智能、新能 源汽车、生物科技等科技创新赛道最受关注。 外资谨慎乐观 "谨慎但乐观"，贺立言用这一表述来概括当前外资的情绪基调。他观察到，与一年前同期相比，境外投 资者的心态已发生明显转变。"今年投资者正在做大量工作来深入了解中国公司，这和去年年初相比已 经有了很大不同。"他认为，这一变化在一定程度上受2025年A股市场表现带动：上证指数全年涨幅达 18.41%，沪深300指数涨幅超17%，强劲的市场表现开始吸引全球投 ...

人民币升值期间大类资产复盘 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20260116-20260123) 本期投资提示： 全球资本市场回顾： 本周 (20260116-20260123)全球地缘政治冲突加剧，贵金属继续上 行。1）固收方面， 10Y美债收益率维持在4.2%的水平，美元指数下行1.88%； 2）权益 方面， 本周上证指数整体上行，中证1000和科创50涨幅靠前，上证50跌幅较大；全球市 场中巴西、阿根廷股价涨幅较大，其中A股行业中建筑材料，石油石化、钢铁涨幅靠前， 银行跌幅较大，港股耐用消费品领涨； 3）商品方面， 本周黄金上涨8.3%，主要是因为 地缘政治冲突集中爆发。 聚焦热点：人民币升值期间大类资产表现复盘 ：2000年以来，人民币汇率共经历了6轮升 值与4轮贬值，人民币汇率变化主要受到汇率制度改革、全球贸易周期以及中美货币政策 周期变化的影响。 国内大类资产方面，人民币升值期间，股票稳定的胜率更高，债券和 商品表现规律并不统一。 股票方面 ，创业板整体跑赢沪深300（除2017年），小盘整体 跑赢大盘（除2017年）。 债券方面， 2017、2023、2025年升值期间，国债指数录得负收 益，其他几 ...