Group 1 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index experienced a significant increase, rising over 2%, with individual stocks such as Xiaoma Zhixing up more than 6%, Tiger Securities up over 5%, and New Oriental up over 7% [1] - Alibaba, Beike, Bilibili, and Li Auto also saw gains, with increases of nearly 4% and over 3% respectively, while Baidu, NetEase, and JD.com rose over 2% [1] - Crude oil prices fell sharply by 3.74%, settling at $63.26 per barrel [1] Group 2 - Spot gold prices surged by 1.86%, reaching a record high of $3833.25 per ounce, driven by factors such as Trump's renewed tariff threats and the risk of a government shutdown [2] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester highlighted the challenging balance the Federal Reserve faces between controlling inflation and protecting employment [3][4] - Mester emphasized the need for a tight policy stance to bring inflation back to target levels, noting that inflation has deviated from the 2% target for over four and a half years [4] Group 3 - Trump announced a 100% tariff on films produced outside the U.S., claiming that the American film industry is being undermined by foreign productions [5][6] - The U.S. government faces a shutdown risk as federal funding is set to run out, with a deadline of September 30, unless bipartisan agreement on funding legislation is reached [7][8] - Fed officials indicated that tariffs are a significant factor in the inflation narrative, with concerns about high inflation rates, particularly in the service sector [10][11]

每经编辑｜陈柯名 | 股市行情 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全球 | A股 | 港股 | | 美股 | | 纳斯达克 | 道琼斯 | | 标普500 | | | 22596.59 | 46172.11 | | 6657.09 | | | +112.52 +0.50% | -75.18 -0.16% | | +13.39 +0.20% | | | | J. W m | | | | | 涨2626 | | | | 跌312 | 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨，一度涨超2%。个股方面，小马智行涨逾6%，老虎证券涨逾5%，新东方涨超7%，阿里巴巴涨逾5%。贝壳、哔 哩哔哩涨近4%，理想汽车涨超3%，百度、网易、京东等涨超2%。 | W | | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数(HXC) 09-29 11:49:38 延时 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8658.20 | | 昨收 | 8530.46 | 成交额 | | 0.00 | | +127.74 | +1.50% | 今开 | ...

特朗普：我将对任何不在美国生产家具的国家征收高额关税。 ...

全球范围内，纯电动汽车的销量增长了35%，达到17,056辆——但日本仅售出18辆。 8 月份，丰田下调了其年度利润预期，因为该公司警告称，特朗普提出的15%的关税将使其利润总额减 少1.4万亿日元(约合95亿美元)。目前，该公司预计到2026年3月结束的财政年度内的营业利润为3.2万亿 日元，低于此前预计的3.8万亿日元。 丰田汽车公司创纪录的销售业绩(包括在中国和北美市场的稳步增长)在日本本土市场出现大幅下滑后， 已逐渐失去增长动力。而包括子公司大发汽车和日野汽车在内，8月份的全球销量较上年同期增长了略 超1%，达到900,598辆。8月海外销量增长了近4%，创下月度新高，但日本国内销量则下降了超过 10%。 这家全球最大的汽车制造商在大多数主要市场都实现了全年稳定的增长，尽管日本销量出现下滑，且由 于美国总统特朗普对进口至美国的汽车及汽车零部件征收关税而引发了贸易动荡。得益于对油电混合动 力车需求的回升，该公司甚至连续七个月实现了创纪录的汽车产量和销量。 丰田汽车(TM.US)周一公布，其全球销量在8月份连续第八个月实现增长。这得益于美国市场上其部分 混合动力车型持续强劲的需求，而日本市场的表现则有所下 ...

Economic Indicators - The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) have shown steady growth for the third consecutive month, with the core PCE inflation indicator meeting expectations at a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1][4]. - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has dropped to a four-month low, indicating rising concerns about income [4]. Market Performance - U.S. stock markets closed higher last Friday, buoyed by inflation data that met expectations, while long-term Treasury yields rose due to strong consumer spending data from August [2]. - The Nasdaq index closed at 22,484.07, up 0.44% for the day and 16.43% year-to-date; the S&P 500 index closed at 6,643.70, up 0.59% for the day and 12.96% year-to-date; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,247.29, up 0.65% for the day and 8.70% year-to-date [3]. Commodity Prices - Oil prices have increased, influenced by drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which have impacted fuel exports [2]. - Gold prices have risen, marking six consecutive weeks of increases [2]. Federal Reserve Insights - The Richmond Fed President noted that while unemployment and inflation rates deviate from the Fed's targets, the risks of further deterioration are limited [5]. - The Fed's Vice Chair Bowman emphasized the need for a smaller balance sheet and reforms in monetary policy implementation [5]. Trade and Tariffs - The Trump administration is reportedly considering imposing tariffs on foreign electronic devices based on the number of chips in each device [6]. - The U.S. is insisting that India cease purchasing Russian oil in exchange for a trade agreement [8]. Corporate Developments - Apple Inc. is reportedly developing an iPhone application similar to ChatGPT to assist in testing the new version of Siri [8]. - ByteDance may retain a significant share of profits from TikTok's U.S. operations even after selling a majority stake [10]. Chinese Economic Developments - The People's Bank of China has maintained a "moderately loose" monetary policy stance while emphasizing the need for effective implementation of policies [11]. - China's industrial profits surged by 20.4% year-on-year in August, marking the first growth in four months [11].

沪铜周报（9.22~9.26） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜大幅上涨，沪铜主力合约上涨3.2%，收报于82470元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价,美国 关税再起波澜，全球不稳定因素仍存，印尼铜矿出险不可抗力，刺激铜价大涨。国内方面，消费将进 入旺季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方 面，铜库存LME库存144400吨，上周小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周减7035吨至98779吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 供需平衡 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the upcoming National Day holiday (October 1 - 8), the market has certain seasonal patterns, such as the risk of pre - holiday adjustment in the stock index and post - holiday upward movement, and pre - holiday depreciation and post - holiday repair of the RMB exchange rate. Gold has a relatively low risk for holding positions during the holiday, and there may be opportunities in commodity sectors like coking coal, steel, and non - metallic building materials in the month after the holiday [1]. - The gap between strong domestic expectations and weak reality has intensified. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, and external tariff pressure increased. Recently, the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies, and attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the current "off - peak in peak season" expectation [1]. - The outlook for US inflation is clearer. The US economic data in August shows a mixed picture, with the ISM manufacturing index in contraction, CPI rising, PPI falling, and employment data underperforming expectations, which further supports the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the subsequent interest rate cut cycle is expected to be smooth. Meanwhile, the risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs [2]. - In the commodity market, the black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. Different commodity sectors have different fundamentals and investment opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Holiday Risk Management**: During the National Day holiday, there are 6 overseas trading days. Historically, the stock index has a risk of pre - holiday adjustment and post - holiday rise, and the RMB exchange rate has a pattern of pre - holiday depreciation and post - holiday repair. Gold has a low risk for holding positions during the holiday, and post - holiday opportunities can be found in coking coal, steel, and non - metallic building materials. Important events during the holiday include the US government's temporary spending bill, US September non - farm payroll data, and the OPEC+ meeting [1]. - **Domestic Economic Situation**: In August, China's economic data showed "slow industry, weak investment, and sluggish consumption". External tariff pressure increased, and the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies. Attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the "off - peak in peak season" expectation [1]. US Economic Situation - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: The US ISM manufacturing index in August was in contraction for the sixth consecutive month, with new orders improving and the price index falling again. The CPI rose to 2.9% year - on - year, while the PPI growth slowed. The employment data was worse than expected, supporting the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the subsequent interest rate cut cycle is expected to be smooth [2]. - **Other Economic Indicators**: The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and new home sales unexpectedly soared to an annualized 800,000 units. The risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs on various imported products [2]. Commodity Market - **Black and New Energy Metal Sectors**: These sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, but the marginal supply has slightly increased recently [3]. - **Precious Metals and Agricultural Products**: Precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. Although gold experienced "selling on the fact" after the Fed's interest rate cut, it is still expected to strengthen due to the de - dollarization trend and the interest rate cut cycle. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term but need fundamental support and are subject to Sino - US negotiation disturbances [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sectors**: The medium - term fundamental supply of energy is considered relatively loose, as OPEC+ plans to increase production in October. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4]. Macroeconomic Data - **US Economic Heat Map**: It shows various economic indicators such as GDP growth, investment, employment, inflation, consumption, fiscal revenue and expenditure, and trade from January 2024 to September 2025, reflecting the overall economic situation of the US [7]. - **European Economic Heat Map**: Presents data on GDP growth, industrial confidence, investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, credit, and fiscal surplus in Europe from October 2024 to September 2025 [8]. - **Chinese Economic Heat Map**: Displays China's GDP growth, trade, investment, consumption, inflation, financial, and fiscal data from September 2024 to August 2025, showing the characteristics of China's economic operation [9].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【泰国前8个月天胶、混合胶合计出口量同比增6.3%】最新数据显示，2025年前8个月，泰国出口天然橡胶（不含复合橡胶）合计为178.9万吨，同比降8%。 其中，标胶合计出口101.7万吨，同比降19%；烟片胶出口26.5万吨，同比增21%；乳胶出口49.6万吨，同比增9%。1-8月，出口到中国天然橡胶合计为69.6 万吨，同比增6%。其中，标胶出口到中国合计为43.3万吨，同比降18%；烟片胶出口到中国合计为8万吨，同比大增300%；乳胶出口到中国合计为18.1 ...

特朗普在9月26号宣布：在10月1号的时候会推出一系列的关税，包含了药品、橱柜、家具以及重型卡 车，这里边药品的关税是最高的，高达100%。可能你就会有一个疑惑，之前关税不都谈完了吗？怎么 又来了呢？ ...

Group 1: Agricultural Impact - U.S. soybean production reached a historical high in 2025, but prices have plummeted by 40% compared to 2022, leading to significant distress among farmers [1] - The trade war has caused U.S. soybean market share in China to drop from 40% in 2016 to 20% in 2024, with farmers expressing frustration over the government's handling of the situation [2] - The number of farm bankruptcies increased by 55% in 2024, indicating a severe crisis in the agricultural sector [2] Group 2: Economic Consequences - The Trump administration's tariffs were expected to generate over $300 billion in revenue, but actual revenue was only $100 billion by July 2025, highlighting a significant shortfall [3] - Tariffs have led to a drastic reduction in U.S. soybean exports to China, from 22 million tons in 2024 to just 3 million tons, resulting in a complete loss of related tariff revenue [3] - The U.S. economy is facing a potential slowdown, with a 65% probability of recession as consumer prices for everyday goods have risen by 30% due to tariffs [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25% in response to rising unemployment and low job growth, with expectations of further cuts [4] - Despite potential cumulative rate cuts of 75 basis points, the structural issues caused by tariffs may negate the positive effects of lower interest rates on consumer spending [4] Group 4: Business Challenges - Companies are facing a dilemma as tariffs increase production costs while incentivizing domestic manufacturing, creating a challenging environment for supply chains [6] - Retailers and importers are struggling with reduced product lines and legal challenges against the government due to the financial strain caused by tariffs [3]