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美元还会贬值!高盛:要到5月中旬或6月初,美国经济的负面冲击才会显著
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-04-28 01:17
尽管近期美国经济数据表现尚可,但是高盛警告不要过早放松警惕,美国经济真正的负面冲击可能在5- 6月才会显现。从较长期的角度来看,美元结构性贬值将成为大趋势。 4月27日,高盛分析师Rikin Shah在最新研报中称,目前美国硬数据仍然坚挺,劳动力市场也没有显示迫 在眉睫的危险信号,加上潜在的关税协议可能给市场带来缓解。但市场还远未脱离险境,因为关税政策 给美国经济带来的负面影响,可能要到5月中旬或6月初才会更加明显地显现。高盛给出的理由如下: 美国消费者的提前采购可能会提振3月和部分4月的消费支出数据,这一现象已经开始显现。 同时,疲软招聘比大规模裁员更可能成为就业市场的关键变量,这意味着失业救济申请数据 可能不如往常那样具有指示意义。 报告指出,政策不确定性高企,消费者和企业信心处于低点,高盛仍然认为美国在未来12个月内陷入衰 退的概率为45%。 高盛还认为,考虑到关税的广泛性和单边性,美国企业和消费者将成为价格的接受者,如果供应链或消 费支出短期内相对缺乏弹性,美元还会贬值。 不确定性极高 关税影响挥之不去 高盛认为,目前正处于一个非常困难的时期,不确定性极高:1、不知道关税谈判的最终结果;2、不知 道关 ...
面板价格观察 | 二季度电视面板采购量预估季增2%,显示器面板4月延续涨势
TrendForce集邦· 2025-04-22 04:33
发表日期: 2025.04.21 (单位:美元/片) | 应用别 | प्तचे | 分辨率 | 出货型态 | | | 液晶显示屏价格 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | THE | 를 | 均价 | 与前月差异(%) | | | 电视 | es"..M | 3840x2160 | Open-Cell | 173 | 182 | 177 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | ER... M | 3840x2160 | Open-Cell | 122 | 130 | 127 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 43"W | 1920x1080 | Open-Cell | રવ | 67 | દર | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 32"W | 1366x768 | Open-Cell | 35.0 | 37.0 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | 桌上显示器 | 27"W (IPS) | 1920x1080 | LED | 57.5 | 65.6 | 62.9 | 0.2 | 0.3% ...
车展要开始了,车圈大事可真不少啊
3 6 Ke· 2025-04-20 23:41
Group 1 - The Shanghai Auto Show will be hosted by the Shanghai International Trade Promotion Commission, Shanghai International Exhibition (Group) Co., Ltd., and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers in 2025, following a final ruling by the Shanghai High Court [1] - The upcoming Shanghai Auto Show is expected to feature over 100 new car debuts, indicating a highly competitive environment in the automotive industry [1] - Various car manufacturers are launching new models with competitive pricing strategies, such as Chery's low-priced vehicles and Leap Motor's B10 laser radar version priced below 120,000 yuan [2][3] Group 2 - NIO's new model, the Firefly, is priced starting at 119,800 yuan, with two versions available, reflecting a strategic pricing approach to attract consumers [5][7] - The AITO M8 has garnered significant attention, with a starting price of 368,000 yuan and over 100,000 orders on its first day, showcasing strong market demand [7] - New regulations from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology restrict the use of terms like "autonomous driving" in marketing, requiring car manufacturers to clarify that such features are merely assistive [10][12] Group 3 - The automotive industry is facing challenges due to tariff issues, with Jaguar Land Rover halting shipments to the U.S. and Stellantis planning layoffs and business suspensions in North America [12] - The announcement of tariff policies has led to a significant drop in the U.S. stock market, with a loss of $6.6 trillion over two days, impacting various industries and raising concerns about increased costs and supply shortages [12]
同比飙升29%,全球电车销量创纪录
汽车商业评论· 2025-04-20 15:08
推 撰 文 / 钱亚光 设 计 / 赵昊然 来 源 / rhomotion.com, www.carscoops.com, electriccarsreport.com 尽管电动汽车在2024年没有像一些人所期望的那样迅猛增长,但2025年开局全球销量势头要强劲得 多。 新数据显示,在全球所有主要市场,电动汽车的销量都在创纪录增长。这种势头很明显,不过随着 时间的推进,特朗普政府出台的政策变动,尤其是削减补贴和新的关税政策,可能会开始抑制这种 增长势头。 近日,电动汽车情报研究机构Rho Motion公布,2025年3月全球电动汽车(纯电动汽车+插混汽车) 销量为170万辆,2025年第一季度销量为410万辆。与2024年3月相比,2025年3月电动汽车市场增长 了29%,与2025年2月相比增长了40%。 这一增长主要得益于中国和欧洲市场的持续强劲势头。尽管增长率与前几个月持平,但地缘政治因 素已开始影响各地区的表现——尤其是在北美地区。世界其他地区的一季度销量增长了27%,达到 约30万辆。 Rho Motion数据经理查尔斯·莱斯特(Charles Lester)评论道:"一季度,尽管形势动荡不安,但全 ...
同比飙升29%,全球电车销量创纪录
汽车商业评论· 2025-04-20 15:08
推 撰 文 / 钱亚光 设 计 / 赵昊然 来 源 / rhomotion.com, www.carscoops.com, electriccarsreport.com 尽管电动汽车在2024年没有像一些人所期望的那样迅猛增长,但2025年开局全球销量势头要强劲得 多。 新数据显示,在全球所有主要市场,电动汽车的销量都在创纪录增长。这种势头很明显,不过随着 时间的推进,特朗普政府出台的政策变动,尤其是削减补贴和新的关税政策,可能会开始抑制这种 增长势头。 近日,电动汽车情报研究机构Rho Motion公布,2025年3月全球电动汽车(纯电动汽车+插混汽车) 销量为170万辆,2025年第一季度销量为410万辆。与2024年3月相比,2025年3月电动汽车市场增长 了29%,与2025年2月相比增长了40%。 这一增长主要得益于中国和欧洲市场的持续强劲势头。尽管增长率与前几个月持平,但地缘政治因 素已开始影响各地区的表现——尤其是在北美地区。世界其他地区的一季度销量增长了27%,达到 约30万辆。 Rho Motion数据经理查尔斯·莱斯特(Charles Lester)评论道:"一季度,尽管形势动荡不安,但全 ...
WidePoint(WYY) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-16 20:30
WidePoint Corporation (WYY) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call April 16, 2025 04:30 PM ET Company Participants Conference Call Moderator - ModeratorJustin Meng - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor RelationsTim March - Chief Financial OfficerAmit Moghadam - Chief Executive OfficerOperator - Conference Call OperatorChris Keaton - Managing DirectorDan Letter - President Conference Call Participants Tom Catherwood - Analyst, BTIGSteve Sacqua - Analyst, Evercore ISIRonald Camden - Analyst, Morgan StanleyMi ...
涉及美国业务,宁德时代回应
第一财经· 2025-04-15 00:32
宁德时代在业绩说明会上表示,美国业务占公司出货比重较小,且去年以来公司已经根据环境变化提 前做了预案,所以有关关税政策对公司业绩影响较小,公司正在与客户积极协商解决方案。 ...
凯德(北京)投资基金管理有限公司:美联储如何在通胀与就业之间找到平衡?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-13 12:52
Core Viewpoint - Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid warned about the economic risks posed by global trade tensions, particularly due to increased market uncertainty from U.S. trade policies [1][3] Economic Performance - The U.S. economy is currently growing at around 3%, with low unemployment rates, indicating a relatively healthy economic state [3] - However, recent tariff policies have increased market volatility and uncertainty, leading to a decline in consumer confidence and rising inflation expectations [3] Federal Reserve Challenges - The Federal Reserve faces significant challenges in balancing inflation control with economic growth and employment support [3][4] - Schmid emphasized the need for the Fed to maintain its credibility in inflation control, warning that unchecked price increases could lead to a vicious cycle of inflation expectations, reminiscent of the "inflation spiral" of the 1970s [3] Tariff Impact - Despite the U.S. delaying additional tariffs on most trading partners, high tariff rates continue to create uncertainty for the U.S. economy [3] - Morgan Stanley analysts predict that ongoing tariff policies may push the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate up to 4%, exacerbating economic instability [3] Policy Decision Complexity - Schmid noted that while the theoretical impact of tariffs may be temporary, the Fed cannot rely solely on theoretical assumptions in the current economic environment [4] - The supply shocks caused by tariffs could have profound effects on inflation and economic growth, making future policy decisions by the Fed crucial [4]
有色金属及能源化工专场
2025-03-31 02:41
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the non-ferrous metals and energy chemical sectors, focusing on the supply and demand dynamics affecting copper, aluminum, nickel, and other related materials [2][3][6]. Key Insights and Arguments Non-Ferrous Metals Market 1. **Supply Constraints**: The non-ferrous metals market in Q2 2025 is heavily influenced by supply-side issues, with copper, aluminum, and nickel facing significant supply constraints due to mining restrictions and policy changes [2][3]. 2. **Copper Price Trends**: Copper prices are expected to trend upwards in 2025 due to tight mining resources, a weakening US dollar, and inflationary pressures. The dollar index has dropped from 110 to around 104, with expectations of further declines [3][4]. 3. **Aluminum and Nickel Prices**: Both aluminum and nickel markets are experiencing high prices due to supply limitations, including domestic aluminum smelting capacity constraints and adjustments in Indonesian nickel mining policies [3][5]. 4. **Copper Supply and Smelting**: The tight copper supply is affecting smelting operations, with global metal smelting capacity utilization rates declining. Domestic reliance on imported copper ore is high, with port inventories at historical lows [3][11]. 5. **Processing Fees**: Current smelting processing fees are below breakeven levels, leading to increased concerns about production cuts. The long-term processing fee for copper is significantly lower than the previous year [12][11]. 6. **US Tariffs on Copper**: The US plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported copper, raising market premium expectations and affecting global inventory dynamics [13][14]. Energy Chemical Sector 1. **Oil and Coal Chemical Markets**: The oil chemical sector is influenced by global oil supply and geopolitical risks, while the coal chemical sector is affected by domestic coal production policies and environmental regulations [6]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: The energy chemical products' prices are expected to be significantly impacted by downstream demand changes, particularly in industrial production activities [6]. Future Outlook 1. **Copper Market**: The copper market is expected to remain tight due to limited new mining capacity and declining ore grades. The overall industry supply situation is likely to remain constrained [9][10]. 2. **Aluminum and Nickel**: The aluminum market is facing limited growth potential, while the nickel market is experiencing a more relaxed supply situation, although policy changes in Indonesia could impact future supply [5][25]. 3. **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon market is oversupplied, while polysilicon production is expected to stabilize due to self-discipline production agreements among manufacturers [27][28]. Additional Considerations 1. **Domestic Market Conditions**: The domestic market is heavily reliant on imported copper ore, with significant concerns about the impact of US tariffs on waste copper supply and basic metal consumption [11][15]. 2. **Automotive Sector Impact**: The domestic automotive export situation is expected to influence global demand, with a focus on the recovery of domestic consumption in the context of new energy vehicles [17][39]. 3. **Regulatory Environment**: The evolving regulatory landscape, particularly regarding tariffs and environmental policies, will play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics across the non-ferrous metals and energy chemical sectors [16][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, highlighting the ongoing challenges and opportunities within the non-ferrous metals and energy chemical industries.