Core Viewpoint - The decline in the number of imported containers at U.S. ports indicates a shrinking of goods imports, influenced by tariff policies, marking the first negative growth in the second quarter since 2020 [1] Group 1: Container Import Data - In June, the number of imported containers at U.S. ports decreased for the second consecutive month, with a year-on-year decline of 7.9% [1] - In May, the decline was recorded at 6.6% year-on-year, indicating a significant drop in container imports [1] - The declines in May and June have completely offset the growth seen in April, where businesses accelerated procurement ahead of tariff measures [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q2 2025 grew 3% to $10.85 billion, with adjusted operating income increasing 1% to $2.38 billion [7][28] - Adjusted operating margin was 21.9%, and adjusted EPS was $5.36 per share, exceeding guidance [7][19] - Year-to-date cash flow from operations was $2.1 billion, with free cash flow at $1.5 billion after net capital expenditures of $645 million [31] Performance by Business Segment - **Life Science Solutions**: Revenue increased 6% year-over-year, with organic growth at 4%. Adjusted operating income rose 6%, and adjusted operating margin was 36.8% [33] - **Analytical Instruments**: Revenue declined 3%, with organic growth down 4%. Adjusted operating income decreased 26%, and adjusted operating margin was 18.8% [34][35] - **Specialty Diagnostics**: Revenue grew 2% year-over-year, with organic revenue flat. Adjusted operating income increased 3%, and adjusted operating margin was 27% [36] - **Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services**: Revenue increased 4%, with organic growth at 3%. Adjusted operating income rose 11%, and adjusted operating margin was 13.8% [37] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the pharma and biotech sector, mid-single-digit growth was achieved, driven by bioproduction and pharma services [8] - Academic and government revenue declined mid-single digits due to customer hesitancy [9] - Diagnostics and Healthcare revenue declined in the low single digits, impacted by challenges in China [10][28] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company focuses on three strategic pillars: high-impact innovation, trusted partner status, and a strong commercial engine [11] - Recent product launches include advanced mass spectrometers and a cryo transmission electron microscope, enhancing the company's competitive position [12][13] - The company is actively managing costs and leveraging its PPI business system to navigate tariff impacts and improve operational efficiency [18][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth drivers of the industry, expecting a gradual improvement in end markets [20][23] - The company anticipates organic revenue growth of 3% to 6% in 2026 and 2027, with a long-term outlook of over 7% [21][24] - Management highlighted strong customer relationships and ongoing investments in innovation as key factors for future success [14][23] Other Important Information - The company announced the retirement of CFO Stephen Williamson, with Jim Meyer set to take over in March 2026 [48][50] - The acquisition of Silventum's purification and filtration business is on track to close by year-end [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term growth outlook and market share - Management provided clarity on the 7% long-term growth outlook, emphasizing strong conviction in industry drivers and share gains [55][60] Question: Margin expansion drivers - Margin expansion is expected to be driven by PPI business system tools and operational efficiencies, despite tariff impacts [62][66] Question: Biopharma investment trends - Management noted broad strength in biopharma, with strong growth in bioproduction and pharma services, indicating a positive outlook [70][72] Question: Analytical Instruments growth outlook - The segment is expected to face challenges due to muted conditions in academic and government sectors, but new product innovations are anticipated to drive share gains [76][86] Question: Reshoring impact - There is increased interest in expanding US manufacturing capacity, with no signs of customers pausing purchases in bioproduction [81][84] Question: Academic and government funding outlook - Bipartisan support for life sciences funding remains strong, with expectations for stabilization in academic and government budgets [98]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market's EC盘面 maintains an overall volatile trend, with spot freight rates remaining relatively firm. The market is still speculating on the timing of the freight rate peak and the subsequent decline rate. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and geopolitical dynamics [4][5]. - The dry - bulk shipping market shows that large - vessel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, while the medium - vessel market is expected to be strongly volatile. The tense situation in the Red Sea may increase shipping costs [15][19]. - In the tanker shipping market, short - term freight rate increases are mainly due to geopolitical conflict premiums. The impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs further attention [23]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On July 10, EC2508 closed at 2022.5 points, up 0.5% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 2258.04 points on July 10, up 6.3% month - on - month, and the SCFI European line reported $2101/TEU on July 4, up 3.5% month - on - month [2][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Mainstream shipping companies' quotes are differentiated. The demand side is in the traditional peak season from July to August, but the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm needs attention. The supply side shows that the weekly average capacity in July, August, and September 2025 is 284,900/289,500/298,700 TEU respectively, and the capacity in August and September has increased slightly compared to the previous schedule. Trump extended the tariff exemption period to August 1 and announced new tariffs on multiple countries [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be volatile, focusing on tariffs and geopolitical dynamics. For arbitrage, conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [6]. Industry News - Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil and will soon announce tariffs on semiconductors. He also issued trade letters to multiple countries on the 9th, announcing tariff rates on various countries' products [8]. - The EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US before August 1. The EU is ready to take counter - measures, with the first phase to take effect on July 14 [9]. - HD Korea Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering received contracts for 4 container ships worth approximately $610 million, and Navios Maritime Partners will sign a series of new container shipbuilding orders with HJ Shipbuilding worth about $460 million [9]. - Regarding the Red Sea situation, Israel and Hamas are in cease - fire negotiations, and Trump said there is a high possibility of resolving the Gaza issue this week [10][11]. Dry - bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1423 points, down 0.6%, the Capesize Index (BCI) fell 5.5% to 1654 points, the Panamax Index (BPI) rose 3.3% to 1621 points, and the Handysize Index (BSI) rose 2.3% to 1151 points [14][15]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: On July 9, the freight rate for the Brazil Tubarao - Qingdao (BCI - C3) route was $18.43/ton, down 0.11% month - on - month, and the West Australia - Qingdao (BCI - C5) route was $7.32/ton, down 2.66% month - on - month. As of July 4, the weekly freight rates for some routes showed different changes [15][16]. - **Shipping Data**: From June 30 to July 6, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 362,700 tons month - on - month. In June 2025, Brazil shipped 13.4203 million tons of soybeans in 20 working days, compared with 13.9596 million tons in July last year [17]. - **News**: The situation in the Red Sea is tense, with two bulk carriers attacked and sunk, which may increase the Red Sea detour ratio and shipping costs. Vietnam imposed a final anti - dumping duty of 23.01 - 27.83% on Chinese hot - rolled coils from July 6, 2025 [17][18]. Industry News - In June 2025, Vietnam's coal imports were 6.4568 million tons, up 1.44% year - on - year and down 10.38% month - on - month. From January to June, the cumulative coal imports were 38.0258 million tons, up 13.75% year - on - year [20]. - Trump issued tariff letters to 8 countries on July 9, with tariff rates ranging from 20% to 50% [20]. Tanker Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Rates**: On July 9, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 932, down 0.32% month - on - month and 12.41% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 537, up 0.56% month - on - month and down 36.75% year - on - year. The BDTI has declined recently, and the upward driving force of freight rates mainly comes from geopolitical conflict premiums [22][23]. Industry News - As of the week of July 9, Singapore's middle distillate inventory decreased by 149,000 barrels, light distillate inventory decreased by 368,000 barrels, and fuel oil inventory increased by 1.328 million barrels [24]. - In early July, the shipping prices of gasoline and diesel were supported but not significantly boosted. The new shipping orders of gasoline and diesel decreased or remained flat. The prices of 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and diesel showed a downward trend [24]. - OPEC restricted five major news agencies from participating in the oil industry conference, raising concerns about the transparency of the global energy market [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that most Fed members expect interest rate cuts later this year, depending on economic data [2][7]. Group 1: Powell's Statements - Powell stated that the U.S. economy is in a relatively good state, with a solid labor market, and that the Fed's cautious approach is to wait for more information [5]. - He acknowledged that the impact of tariffs is expected to show in upcoming inflation data, but uncertainties remain [6]. - Powell emphasized that the federal fiscal path is unsustainable, despite the debt levels being manageable [9]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, short-term interest rate futures indicated a 25% chance of a rate cut in July, up from less than 20% previously [2]. - Goldman Sachs revised its forecast, predicting the Fed will restart rate cuts in September, three months earlier than previously expected [13]. - Goldman Sachs expects rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December meetings [14]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Outlook - The U.S. job market remains "healthy," but finding jobs has become more challenging, posing short-term downside risks to employment data [15]. - The Labor Department is set to release June non-farm payroll data, which will be crucial for assessing the economic outlook [15]. Group 4: Political Context - President Trump criticized Powell and the Fed, suggesting that rate cuts could save "hundreds of billions" in interest costs [11]. - Trump's ongoing attacks on Powell challenge the Fed's traditional independence from the White House [12]. Group 5: Internal Fed Dynamics - There is a visible divide within the Fed, with some members advocating for immediate rate cuts due to cooling inflation, while others, led by Powell, prefer to wait and observe [19].

Economic Overview - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates a slight decline in U.S. economic activity, with rising tariffs and uncertainty impacting the economy broadly, leading to a "slightly pessimistic and uncertain" outlook [1][2] - The ISM Services PMI for May unexpectedly fell to 49.9, below the expected 52, marking the first contraction in service sector activity since July 2023 [4][5] Employment and Labor Market - Employment conditions remain stagnant across most Federal Reserve districts, with many reporting unchanged job markets and some industries planning layoffs [2][5] - The upcoming employment report is critical, with expectations of a modest increase in non-farm payrolls and a stable unemployment rate at 3.9% [7] Inflation and Pricing Pressure - The Beige Book notes that prices are rising at a moderate pace, but businesses expect faster increases in costs and prices in the future, with some planning to pass tariff-related costs onto consumers [2][3] - The ISM Services PMI report highlights a sharp decline in new orders and a significant rise in the prices paid index, indicating dual pressures from tariffs on demand and inflation [4][5] Market Reactions and Predictions - Market participants are hedging against a volatile interest rate path from the Federal Reserve, with expectations ranging from no rate cuts to aggressive cuts by 2025 [6][9] - The divergence in predictions from major banks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup reflects the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and potential Fed actions [6][9] Regulatory Changes - The Senate confirmed Michelle Bowman as the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, which may introduce new dynamics in financial regulation amidst rising economic uncertainty [8][9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it presents a "neutral" view on the cotton market, considering various factors such as supply, demand, and macro - economic conditions [3]. 2. Core View The fundamental pattern of the cotton market has limited improvement. The cotton price is expected to have weak upward momentum in the near term. The market is influenced by factors like tariff policies, supply and demand changes, and macro - economic trends. The US cotton is expected to oscillate weakly below 70 cents due to a loose supply pattern, while the domestic cotton price may move in tandem with the external market. The actual increase in trade demand may be limited despite some warming expectations [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro & Industry - The profit of China's above - scale industrial enterprises in April increased by 3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points faster than in March. However, the cumulative profit of the textile and clothing industry in April decreased by 15.4% year - on - year [3]. - The US federal court's ruling on the Trump tariff policy is uncertain, and the repeated changes in tariff measures make the industry cautious [3]. 3.2 Supply - **International**: As of the week ending May 25, the US cotton planting rate was 52%, the budding rate was 3%. The soil moisture in the US improved, which is negative for US cotton. The estimated cotton output in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is 3.9048 million tons, a 5.5% year - on - year increase [3]. - **Domestic**: Xinjiang's new cotton is growing well. The planting area in southern Xinjiang may increase, and the new - season output is expected to reach 7.2 - 7.4 million tons. The cost of planting is expected to remain stable or decline slightly. The imported cotton resources have decreased for four consecutive times [3]. 3.3 Inventory - **Domestic**: The industrial and commercial inventory in China is in the seasonal de - stocking stage, but the de - stocking speed has slowed down recently. The replenishment progress of cotton yarn, grey cloth, and blended products has also slowed down [3]. - **International**: In March 2025, the inventory of US wholesalers' clothing and fabrics reached the lowest level in 37 months, and the retailers' inventory has declined. There was no obvious replenishment in Q1, and the latest data will show the US replenishment intention after the tariff war [3]. 3.4 Demand - **Domestic**: The domestic textile industry is in the off - season. The number of orders from spinning mills rebounded limitedly and then declined again. The profit of spinning mills remains at around - 1000 yuan, and the industry's profit in April continued to decline [3]. - **International**: The demand for US cotton has not significantly improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm is limited. The "rush - to - export" effect may not be further amplified [3]. 3.5 Cotton Supply - Related - **Inventory Changes**: The total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China decreased by 162,900 tons to 4.3275 million tons this week. The port inventory decreased by 4700 tons to 485,600 tons. The cotton import in April was about 168,662 tons, reaching a near - historical low [13]. - **Product Inventory**: The inventory days of pure cotton yarn, terminal grey cloth, and factory - made polyester - cotton yarn increased this week. The inventory of textile mills' grey cloth decreased in April. The inventory of the clothing and textile industry of Chinese industrial enterprises in March increased by 2 billion yuan to 180.94 billion yuan [17]. 3.6 Cotton Market Performance - **Cotton Futures and Spot**: The cotton price is in a weak - running state with insufficient positive drivers. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price mostly fluctuates within a range [5][7]. - **Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot**: The cotton yarn price was weak this week, showing slightly better resistance than cotton [8]. 3.7 Market Indicators - **US Cotton Planting**: As of May 25, the US cotton planting rate was 52%, and the budding rate was 3% [11]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 29, the registered cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou were 11,157, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 11,537, equivalent to 461,480 tons of cotton [19]. - **Operating Rate**: This week, the spinning mill's operating rate decreased slightly to 74.5%, and the weaving mill's operating rate remained stable at 42.3%. The upward momentum of the operating rate slowed down [21]. - **Profit and Orders**: The immediate profit of spinning mills remained at around - 1000 yuan/ton. The order days of textile enterprises decreased to 11.38 days [23]. 3.8 Market Demand - Side - **Domestic Sales**: In April, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles in China were 108.8 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. From January to April, the cumulative retail sales were 493.9 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [26]. - **Exports**: In April 2025, the total export of textiles and clothing in China was 24.1863 billion US dollars. Textile exports increased by 3.8% year - on - year in the first four months, while clothing exports decreased by 1.5% year - on - year in the first four months [29]. 3.9 Industry Overview - The cotton - spinning industry has higher volatility, with lower order peaks and higher inventory production links. The demand - side weakness and supply - side surplus have not been fully alleviated [31]. 3.10 Competitor Situation - The cotton - polyester and cotton - viscose price differences have reached near - four - year lows, and the pressure on cotton consumption has weakened temporarily. However, due to factors such as new capacity expansion in the chemical fiber industry, the pressure on cotton from competitors is expected to remain strong [34]. 3.11 CFTC Position Data The non - commercial positions and the net short positions of funds have made a small correction, but the report does not provide detailed data [35]. 3.12 Macroeconomic Impact The profit differentiation of domestic enterprises continues to intensify, and the consumer confidence indices in Europe and the US have declined, which affects the cotton market [37].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in U.S. government tariff policies have significantly impacted port operations, particularly at the Port of Los Angeles, which is experiencing a notable decline in cargo volume as the traditional shipping season approaches [1] Group 1: Cargo Volume Decline - The Port of Los Angeles is expected to see a substantial decrease in cargo volume for May, with a projected year-over-year decline in double digits [1] - Cargo volume in the first and fourth weeks of May has already shown a 30% drop compared to previous periods [1] - The cancellation of 10 scheduled vessels for June further indicates a downturn in port activity [1] Group 2: Employment Impact - The reduction in cargo volume is anticipated to affect employment at the port, as fewer ships mean a decreased demand for unloading and transportation workers [1] Group 3: Import Trends - The Port of Los Angeles serves as a primary gateway for imports from China, with major clients including large retailers like Walmart and automotive parts suppliers for companies like Ford [1] - According to the National Retail Federation, U.S. imports are expected to decline by at least 20% year-over-year in the second half of 2025 [1]

随着美国关税政策导致企业削减进口订单，美国多个港口货运量明显下降。美国西北海港联盟的数据显 示，5月第一周，西雅图港和塔科马港的入境货运量较今年周平均水平下降了23%。如果情况持续，港 口的工作人员，从码头工人，到卡车司机，再到物流仓储人员等，可能面临包括失业在内的更加艰难的 处境。 (CCTV国际时讯) ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For fiscal year 2025, the company reported a revenue growth of 16% year-over-year, reaching nearly $5 billion [7] - Gross margin expanded by 230 basis points to 57.9%, while operating margins improved by 200 basis points to 23.6% [7][36] - Earnings per share increased by 30% to $6.33 compared to the previous year [7][38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HOKA brand revenue increased by 24% to $2.2 billion, with wholesale revenue growing 24% and DTC revenue rising 23% [11][36] - UGG brand revenue grew by 13% to $2.5 billion, with wholesale revenue increasing 15% and DTC revenue rising 11% [24][36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue for HOKA expanded by 39%, now representing 34% of global revenue, up from 30% last year [11] - UGG's international revenue increased by 20%, now accounting for 39% of global sales, up from 37% last year [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a balanced channel mix of 50% DTC and 50% wholesale, focusing on brand-led growth and expanding international presence [9][10] - HOKA is positioned as a leading performance brand with plans to enhance product innovation and expand into lifestyle and fitness categories [19][23] - UGG is focusing on increasing adoption among male consumers and developing year-round products to capture a broader market [26][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged uncertainty due to shifting U.S. trade policy but expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt [8] - The company expects fiscal year 2026 to face challenges, including potential tariff impacts of up to $150 million on cost of goods sold [39][41] - Despite these challenges, management remains optimistic about long-term growth prospects for both HOKA and UGG [49] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $567 million worth of shares during fiscal year 2025, reflecting strong cash flow and confidence in its strategic plan [38][47] - A new board chair, Cindy Davis, was announced, succeeding Mike Devine, who retired after 14 years of service [51] Q&A Session Summary Question: What factors contributed to the slowdown in HOKA U.S. DTC? - Management noted that the slowdown was due to unique factors in the U.S. market, including model changeovers and increased promotions, but expressed confidence in international performance [55][56] Question: Is mid-teens growth for HOKA still possible? - Management indicated that while they are not providing formal guidance, they remain optimistic about mid-teens growth based on strong international performance and brand awareness [60][64] Question: Can you elaborate on the impact of tariff costs? - The $150 million tariff cost is a gross estimate, and management is exploring pricing adjustments and cost-sharing strategies to mitigate the impact [75][76] Question: How will HOKA's growth be split between DTC and wholesale? - Management emphasized that the growth framework includes strategic expansion of wholesale distribution, which is expected to drive consumer engagement and brand awareness [81][82]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overseas risk appetite has decreased, and attention should be paid to the impact of economic data releases on market sentiment. There is still a need to be aware of the long - term economic decline risk under US tariff policies. The copper raw material supply remains in a tight pattern, with strong price support, but the price center is expected to move down due to reduced consumption intensity [1]. - The domestic commodity sentiment is marginally stable, while the overseas risk appetite has weakened. High tariff levels lead to concerns about long - term demand. The high processing fees of aluminum rods are conducive to further inventory reduction of aluminum ingots, with strong price support, but the seasonal weak consumption will limit the upward space of aluminum prices, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile [3]. - The inventory of recycled raw materials is limited, and the profit of recycled lead enterprises is under pressure, with the operating rate continuously declining. After the battery enterprises' holidays, the operating rate has returned to a relatively high level. In the medium term, the Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16300 - 17800, and the short - term lead price shows a strong upward trend [5]. - In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloys increased significantly. From a fundamental perspective, the port inventory of zinc concentrates continues to rise, and the processing fees of zinc concentrates increase again. The zinc ore surplus expectation remains unchanged. With the accumulation of zinc ingot inventory, the zinc price still has a certain downward risk in the medium term [7]. - The supply of tin is currently tight in the short term but is expected to loosen. The terminal orders in industries such as home appliances and electronics have not significantly increased, and the tin price center may move down under the drag of demand [8][9]. - The cost of nickel is expected to loosen, and the spot demand is weak. The inventory may return to the accumulation trend, and the nickel price maintains a bearish outlook [10]. - The supply and demand side of lithium carbonate lacks strong driving forces, and the futures price is in the cost - intensive area. If the demand does not weaken further, there is significant resistance to downward movement, and it is likely to fluctuate at the bottom [12]. - There are continuous disturbances in the ore and supply sides of alumina. The short - term impact of the mine shutdown in Guinea is large, and local policy uncertainty is high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [15]. - The nickel - iron market is in a game situation, and the high - carbon ferrochrome market is waiting for the June tender of steel mills. The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [17]. Summary by Metals Copper - The LME copper closed down 0.71% to $9487/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77770 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 168825 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio rose to 39.1%. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.5 tons to 4.1 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, and the downstream procurement sentiment improved. The import loss of domestic copper spot increased to over 400 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference narrowed slightly. The expected operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract today is 77000 - 78400 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9400 - 9600 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum closed down 0.22% to $2475/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20135 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 0.04 million hands to 51.6 million hands, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 tons to 6.0 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1.05 tons to 44.7 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.2 tons to 8.3 tons. The spot premium in the East China region remained unchanged. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract today is 20000 - 20260 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2450 - 2500 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - The 3S price of lead rose by 13.5 to $1985/ton. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16725 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 4.11 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 24.58 tons. The domestic social inventory increased to 5.82 tons. The medium - term expected operating range of the Shanghai lead index is 16300 - 17800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.76% to 22417 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose 62 to $2730.5/ton. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 22760 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.14 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 15.67 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 8.38 tons. In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloys increased significantly. The zinc price still has a downward risk in the medium term [7]. Tin - On May 21, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 267730 yuan/ton, up 1.13%. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange registered warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 8070 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 15 tons to 2670 tons. The upstream tin concentrate price rose. The tin ore supply is expected to loosen, and the tin price center may move down. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and that of overseas LME tin is 30000 - 33000 dollars/ton [8][9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 123760 yuan/ton, up 0.18%, and the LME main contract closed at $15630/ton, up 0.64%. The price of nickel ore is stable or slightly decreased, the nickel - iron price is stable, and the price of intermediate products is high. The LME nickel inventory increased by 90 tons to 202098 tons. The nickel price maintains a bearish outlook. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract today is 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 15000 - 16300 dollars/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 62,657 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2507 contract closed at 61,100 yuan, up 0.39%. The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The expected operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2507 contract today is 60,400 - 61,800 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - On May 21, 2025, the alumina index rose 3.55% to 3241 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions increased. The overseas Australian FOB price remained stable, and the import loss was 152 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1.68 tons to 17.35 tons. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2900 - 3500 yuan/ton [14][15]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12870 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the nickel - iron price decreased slightly. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 0.42%. The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [17].