Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Domestic Commodity Futures Mostly Decline, Black Series Generally Close Lower - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250814" [1] Group 2: Market Performance Domestic Main Commodities - Index futures generally showed an upward trend. For example, the CSI 300 futures had a daily increase of 0.96%, a weekly increase of 2.15%, a monthly increase of 2.81%, a quarterly increase of 7.33%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.37% [4] - Treasury futures mostly had minor fluctuations. The 2 - year Treasury futures had a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, a monthly increase of 0.02%, a quarterly decrease of 0.13%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.59% [4] - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index decreased by 0.20% weekly, 21.98% monthly, 13.4% quarterly, and 9.60% year - to - date [4] - Interest rates showed different trends. The 10Y Chinese bond yield increased by 7.9bp quarterly and 0.1bp year - to - date, while the 10Y US Treasury yield increased by 5bp quarterly and decreased by 26bp year - to - date [4] Popular Industries - Some industries like the grass - colored gold industry had good performance, with a daily increase of 1.28%, a weekly increase of 4.59%, a monthly increase of 4.37%, a quarterly increase of 11.54%, and a year - to - date increase of 31.85%. While some industries like the pharmaceutical industry had a daily decrease of 0.86%, a weekly decrease of 0.88%, a monthly decrease of 0.88%, a quarterly increase of 12.63%, and a year - to - date increase of 21.76% [4] Overseas Commodities - In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 1.44% daily, 0.43% weekly, 9.03% monthly, 2.91% quarterly, and 12.23% year - to - date [4] - Precious metals such as COMEX gold increased by 0.17% daily, decreased by 1.69% weekly, increased by 1.71% monthly, increased by 2.55% quarterly, and increased by 28.81% year - to - date [4] - In the non - ferrous metals sector, LME copper increased by 1.17% daily, 0.74% weekly, 2.43% monthly, decreased by 0.38% quarterly, and increased by 12.05% year - to - date [4] - In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans increased by 2.18% daily, 4.64% weekly, 4.24% monthly, 0.46% quarterly, and 2.20% year - to - date [4] Other Domestic Commodities - Many commodities showed various trends. For example, the shipping container freight rate to Europe (ECSA) increased by 5.96% daily, decreased by 7.17% weekly, decreased by 6.46% monthly, decreased by 0.44% quarterly, and decreased by 40.93% year - to - date [5] Group 3: Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas Macro - The overseas market is facing a situation where the US economic fundamentals are weak. The China - US tariff negotiation period is postponed to November 12. The US CPI in July met expectations. The upcoming tariff implementation in August may test market sentiment. The internal personnel change in the Fed and the US CPI data next week will guide market expectations for interest rate cuts and risk appetite [9] Domestic Macro - China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly relying on the strong demand from non - US markets to offset the decline in exports to the US. However, this may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face the risk of decline and restricted re - export trade [9] Asset Views - Domestically, reduce the allocation of domestic equities and wait for the policy and profit repair window in the second half of the month. Maintain the allocation of commodities with a focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. Overseas, reduce the allocation of US stocks due to high valuations and maintain the allocation of US bonds. Slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds to relieve pressure from the weak US dollar and reduce the allocation of US dollar money market funds to be cautious about interest rate cut games. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the policy and data inflection points in late August [9] Group 4: Viewpoints on Different Sectors Finance - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term outlook is a fluctuating upward trend. Stock index options: Layout offensive strategies, with a short - term fluctuating upward trend. Treasury futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term fluctuating trend [10] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards as the market returns to the logic of the restart of the interest rate cut cycle, with the US economic fundamentals weakening [10] Shipping - The shipping container freight rate to Europe is expected to fluctuate as the market focuses on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases [10] Black Building Materials - Most products in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, are expected to fluctuate. For example, steel has strong cost support, and iron ore has a healthy fundamental situation [10] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. have different short - term trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate downward, while aluminum is expected to continue to recover, but the overall demand weakness needs to be noted [10] Energy and Chemicals - Most products in this sector are expected to fluctuate. For example, crude oil is expected to fluctuate downward due to geopolitical concerns easing and supply pressure remaining. Some chemicals like LPG are expected to fluctuate due to cost and demand factors [12] Agriculture - Oils, fats, and protein meals are expected to continue to be strong, while corn/starch is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [12]

Group 1 - The core point of the article revolves around the recent developments in US-China trade relations, particularly the extension of the tariff suspension by the Trump administration for an additional 90 days, which is seen as a strategic move to negotiate a market access agreement with China [1][3][7] - The US is under domestic political pressure, limiting its ability to significantly reduce tariffs, with the current situation being a temporary truce where both sides are looking to avoid further escalation [3][5][7] - Brazil's President Lula has reached out to China for support against US trade policies, indicating a desire for collaboration among emerging economies to counteract US unilateralism [5][7] Group 2 - The article highlights that the US has relaxed restrictions on advanced chip exports to China, allowing companies like Nvidia to export H20 chips, which signifies a shift in the trade dynamics [7] - The ongoing negotiations are seen as a critical period for tariff exemptions in specific sectors, which could lead to breakthroughs in the trade discussions [7] - The support from China to Brazil in the context of the BRICS framework emphasizes the importance of solidarity among developing nations in facing US trade pressures [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current global market dynamics amid the "super tariff week," highlighting the contrasting behaviors of gold and stock markets, with a focus on the implications of U.S.-Russia relations and trade negotiations between the U.S. and China [3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariff Negotiations - Global traders are currently more concerned about gold than the stock market due to uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China tariff negotiations and the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin [3][4]. - The market's response to tariff negotiations has become muted, with global stock markets reaching new highs, while gold has experienced volatile price movements [4][12]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Despite tariff uncertainties, there is optimism regarding the Chinese economy, with strong performance in exports and a trade surplus exceeding market expectations [6][10]. - China's overall exports grew by 7.2% year-on-year in July, while imports increased by 4.1%, indicating resilience in trade despite a significant drop in exports to the U.S. [6]. Group 3: Stock Market Performance - Global stock markets have outperformed expectations, with the U.S. indices showing strong performance, particularly the Nasdaq, which rose by 3.8% to reach a new historical high [8][10]. - The Hang Seng Index and MSCI China Index have been among the best-performing stock indices globally, with absolute returns of 28% and 26% respectively this year [10]. Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market has been volatile, influenced by news regarding potential tariffs on gold bars, which initially caused prices to spike before a sharp decline following a denial from the White House [12][13]. - Analysts suggest that if gold prices fall below key support levels, it could lead to further downward pressure, while a breakthrough above $3,400 would indicate a continuation of the upward trend [13].

Group 1 - Global traders are currently more concerned about gold rather than the stock market amid the "super tariff week" [1] - The market is optimistic about China's economic outlook despite uncertainties surrounding tariff negotiations [1][4] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have outperformed global investor expectations, with increased interest from overseas investors in the Chinese stock market [1] Group 2 - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin is highly anticipated, focusing on long-term peace solutions for the Ukraine crisis [2] - The potential for a trade deal between the U.S. and Russia may involve discussions about Russia's interests in the Middle East [3] - The market is closely watching whether the U.S. and China will extend the tariff truce originally set to end on August 12 [3] Group 3 - China's economic growth has exceeded expectations, with July exports rising by 7.2% year-on-year and imports increasing by 4.1% [4] - The U.S. stock market has shown strong performance, with the Nasdaq rising 3.8% to reach a new historical high [5] - The S&P 500 index is increasingly seen as likely to reach 7200 points, driven by strong earnings results from major companies [6] Group 4 - The number of new A-share accounts reached 14.56 million by the end of July, a year-on-year increase of 36.9% [7] - Gold prices have experienced volatility, influenced by news regarding potential tariffs on imported gold bars [8][9]

面对"超级关税周"，全球交易员短期似乎更担心黄金，而非股市。 首先，市场关注中美双方是否会再次延长原定于8月12日结束的关税休战期；其次，8月15日，美国总统 特朗普和俄罗斯总统普京将在阿拉斯加会面，市场这次似乎更偏向于美俄能够达成关税协议，且更关注 双方的交易筹码。 随着市场对关税谈判反应的钝化，全球股市近期纷纷创下阶段新高，而作为避险资产的黄金，近期却走 出了"过山车"行情，前景扑朔迷离。 无论关税谈判结果如何，市场对于中国经济的前景依旧保持乐观。英国经济学家、伦敦经济与商业政策 署前署长约翰·罗斯日前表示，中国经济基本面稳健，投资效率高，研发投入不断增加，相信中国经济 将保持稳健发展。 面对关税谈判的不确定性，A股和港股的表现亦超出全球投资者预期。摩根士丹利中国首席股票策略师 王滢对第一财经记者表示，当前海外投资者对中国股市的兴趣明显提升。 浙商中拓集团金融市场业务部总经理刘杨对第一财经记者表示，俄乌冲突钝化总体符合俄罗斯利益，若 解除制裁的预期出现，俄罗斯卢布资产可能大幅反弹。 刘杨还表示，今年欧元的强劲势头包含了市场对俄乌冲突结束利好欧元资产的充分定价，若美俄达成妥 协，并不能给欧元资产提供进一步上 ...

Group 1 - Global traders are currently more concerned about gold than the stock market amid the "super tariff week" [1][5] - The market is optimistic about China's economic outlook, with strong fundamentals and increasing R&D investment [1][4] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have outperformed global investor expectations, with increased interest from overseas investors [1][5] Group 2 - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin is focused on long-term peace solutions for the Ukraine crisis, which is a significant point of interest for the market [2][3] - The potential for a trade deal between the U.S. and Russia may involve concessions regarding Russia's interests in the Middle East [3] - The U.S. has announced additional tariffs on Indian goods, linking it to India's continued oil imports from Russia, indicating a complex interplay of geopolitical factors [3] Group 3 - Global stock markets have shown strong performance, with the Nasdaq reaching a new high and significant gains in major indices [5][6] - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach 7200 points, driven by strong earnings from large tech companies [6] - Chinese stock indices, including the Hang Seng and MSCI China indices, have delivered exceptional returns, outperforming global benchmarks [6][7] Group 4 - Gold prices have experienced volatility due to tariff news and subsequent clarifications from the White House, leading to a challenging trading environment [8][9] - The market anticipates that if gold bars are exempt from tariffs, the price spread between spot and futures may stabilize [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the textile and apparel industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for specific companies within the sector [2]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 4.2% from August 4 to August 8, surpassing the SW All A index by 2.3 percentage points [3]. - Recent industry data shows that the retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles totaled 742.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [6]. - Exports of textiles and apparel reached 143.98 billion USD in the first half of 2025, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, although June saw a decline in textile and apparel exports [29]. - Cotton prices have shown mixed trends, with domestic cotton prices decreasing by 0.4% while international cotton prices fell by 1.1% [31][33]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - Companies like Huayi and Jiansheng reported profit declines in Q2 2025, indicating cautious ordering behavior in the brand supply chain. Huayi's profit margin decreased due to new factory efficiencies taking time to stabilize and weak retail performance from some old clients [6]. - Despite fluctuations in downstream orders, companies remain optimistic about future demand, particularly from new clients like Adidas, which is expected to support overall revenue growth [6]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in quality textile manufacturing, especially with the ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations and domestic consumption improvements [7][8]. Apparel Sector - Adidas reported a 2.2% year-on-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, with significant growth in the Greater China region and a notable rise in net profit [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of high-end and cost-effective brands, with brands like Anta and Li Ning showing stable performance despite a challenging retail environment [11]. - The focus on domestic consumption recovery is crucial, with various local governments implementing measures to stimulate consumer spending [11]. Key Company Updates - Huayi Group's H1 2025 revenue was 12.66 billion yuan, a 10.4% increase, but net profit fell by 11.4% [21]. - Jiansheng Group's H1 2025 revenue was 1.17 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.2%, with a net profit decline of 14.5% [22]. Market Trends - The report notes a cautious but optimistic outlook for the textile and apparel industry, driven by potential recovery in domestic demand and strategic positioning of leading companies [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The weak US employment data has boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the continuous gold - buying by central banks supports the prices of precious metals. The prices of precious metals are likely to rise and investors are advised to buy on dips, while being vigilant about the potential rebound of US consumer - end inflation caused by additional tariffs [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data in the US - **Employment**: The number of non - farm payrolls in July dropped to 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data for May - June was revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, higher than the previous value. The average hourly wage rate in July was 3.9%, higher than expected and the previous value [4][43]. - **Inflation**: In June, the CPI and core CPI annual rates were 2.7% and 2.9% respectively, higher than expected and the previous value. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations in July were 4.4% and 3.6% respectively, lower than expected and the previous value [4][13]. - **Manufacturing and Services**: The ISM manufacturing PMI in July was 48, lower than expected and the previous value, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, lower than the previous value and expected [34]. - **Housing**: The 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates at the end of July decreased to 5.85% and 6.72% respectively. The total sales volume of new and existing homes in June decreased month - on - month [38][41]. - **Retail and Consumption**: The retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6%, higher than the previous value and expected. The personal consumption expenditure month - on - month rate in June was flat with expectations but higher than the previous value [50][57]. - **Durable Goods**: The new orders for durable goods month - on - month rate in June was - 9.3%, higher than expected but lower than the previous value [53]. - **Debt and Finance**: The US outstanding public debt increased by $61.2 billion compared with last month. The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was about $84.4 billion. The OFR financial stress index decreased [21][22][27]. 3.2 Central Bank Policies in Other Countries - **European Central Bank**: The eurozone's July CPI initial value increased by 2% year - on - year, and the GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.1% quarter - on - quarter, getting out of the technical recession. The market expects the ECB to cut interest rates at most once in the second half of the year. The ECB is reducing its balance sheet [61][63]. - **Bank of England**: The UK's CPI and core CPI annual rates in June were 3.6% and 3.7% respectively, higher than expected and the previous value. The Bank of England may cut interest rates only once before the end of 2025 [66]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised its core inflation forecast for 2025 to 2.7% and will reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The expectation of interest rate hikes before the end of 2025 has cooled [69]. 3.3 Precious Metals Market - **Geopolitical and Central Bank Buying**: The global geopolitical risk index decreased in July, but uncertainties remain. The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month [72][75]. - **ETF and Futures Positions**: The US gold ETF volatility index increased. The non - commercial long - short position ratio of COMEX gold futures increased, while that of COMEX silver futures decreased [77][82][85]. - **Inventory**: The gold inventories in SHFE and COMEX increased, while the silver inventories in SHFE decreased and those in SGE and COMEX increased [88]. - **Price Ratios**: The "gold - silver ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) is at a relatively high level, and the "gold - oil ratio" and "gold - copper ratio" are also high. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term light - position short - selling opportunities of the "gold - silver ratio" and long - position opportunities of the "gold - oil ratio" and "gold - copper ratio" [91][94].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for cotton is "oscillation", and for sugar is "oscillation with a downward bias" [2] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.72% to 66.36 cents per pound, and CF509 decreased 0.15% to 13,670 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 9,339 lots to 272,100 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,089 yuan per ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for grade 3128B was 15,191 yuan per ton, up 13 yuan. Internationally, the macro - level is the focus, with rising expectations of a September interest rate cut and more than 2 cuts this year, and U.S. cotton prices are in low - level oscillation. Domestically, as the 09 contract approaches expiration, the main contract's open interest is decreasing, and the warehouse receipt cancellation speed has slightly increased. After macro - pricing, the market will focus on new cotton. New cotton is expected to have a good harvest with a low opening price, putting pressure on the 01 contract. However, the new - year cotton consumption is expected to be stable, and the inventory - to - sales ratio won't be high. Overall, sentiment is positive, and prices are supported by low spot inventory before new cotton is on the market. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract will oscillate in the short - term and be stronger in the medium - to - long - term [2] - **Sugar**: Brazil exported 3.5937 million tons of sugar and molasses in July, a 4.98% decrease from last year. Spot prices in China are falling. Raw sugar is weak with no new drivers, and the expected increase in production suppresses futures prices. In China, spot prices continue to decline, and processed sugar will put pressure on the market. The market is expected to remain weak [2] Group 3: Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread is - 165, down 5; the main contract basis is 1,521, up 33. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,089, up 6, and the national spot price is 15,191, up 13 [3] - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread is 67, up 5; the main contract basis is 323, down 4. The Nanning spot price is 5,970, down 30, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5,990, down 20 [3] Group 4: Market Information - On August 7, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,329, down 135 from the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts [4] - On August 7, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,089 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 15,220 yuan/ton in Henan, 15,169 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 15,265 yuan/ton in Zhejiang [4] - On August 7, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.3 (unchanged), the yarn comprehensive inventory was 30 (unchanged), the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.8 (up 0.1), and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.7 (down 0.1) [4] - On August 7, the sugar spot prices were 5,970 yuan/ton in Nanning (down 30) and 5,990 yuan/ton in Liuzhou (down 20) [4] - On August 7, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 18,615, down 187 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [5] Group 5: Chart Analysis - There are charts showing the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota domestic - foreign spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of cotton; as well as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][9][11][13][16][17][19] Group 6: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry [21] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures [22] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [1] - Silver: ★★, recommending buying on rebounds [1] - Copper: ★★, advising to try buying on dips [1] - Zinc: ★★, suggesting selling on rebounds [1] - Lead: ★, indicating that rebounds are under pressure [1] - Tin: ★★, showing rebounds are under pressure [1] - Aluminum: ★, suggesting rebounds are under pressure [1] - Nickel: ★★, indicating rebounds are under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, showing it is under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: ★, recommending a cautious bullish view [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, suggesting a bullish view [1] Core Views of the Report - Precious metals like gold and silver are influenced by multiple factors such as US data supporting higher interest - rate cut expectations, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical events, maintaining high levels. Long - term strategic allocation of gold is recommended, and silver also has an upward long - term trend [1][2] - Copper is affected by copper concentrate disruptions and a weak US dollar, which help it stop falling and rebound. However, the off - season demand and inventory accumulation limit the rebound space. Long - term optimism remains [1][7] - Zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak situation. Overseas, there are issues like concentrated zinc warehouse receipts, while domestic demand is weak. Long - term, supply increases and demand decreases [1][10] - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure due to insufficient terminal demand and inventory accumulation [1][14] - Nickel's price rebound is under pressure because of weak downstream transactions and inventory pressure [1][18] - Lithium carbonate's fundamentals have marginally improved, with total inventory starting to decline after continuous accumulation. There is a supply hype expectation, and it is recommended to try buying on dips [1][22] Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold prices remain high due to factors such as the expected meeting between Putin and Trump, US data supporting higher interest - rate cut expectations, and continuous central bank gold purchases [2] - **Basic Logic**: US employment is weakening, but inflation expectations are rising. Some countries' stances on tariffs are changing, and central banks are continuing to buy gold. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains unchanged [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has clear support around 770 in the short - term. Silver is in a range of 9100 - 9350, and long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [3] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly overnight, first rising and then falling [6] - **Industrial Logic**: There have been continuous disruptions in copper concentrates, and overseas smelters are under maintenance. Domestic copper smelting production has increased, but it is the off - season for demand, and inventories are accumulating [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for copper to fully correct and then try buying on dips. Long - term, be bullish on copper. The range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79500], and for LME copper is [9550, 9750] dollars per ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc has stood above the 2800 mark, while Shanghai zinc fluctuated narrowly [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. However, demand is weak due to high temperatures, floods, and the off - season [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For short - term, take profit on previous short positions and wait and see. Long - term, look for opportunities to short on rallies. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 22800], and for LME zinc is [2750, 2850] dollars per ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded in the short - term, while alumina rebounded and then declined [12] - **Industrial Logic**: The cost of electrolytic aluminum has decreased, and inventories are rising. The demand side is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, and inventories are accumulating [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on short - term rebounds of Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices' rebounds were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [16] - **Industrial Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is falling, and domestic nickel supply - demand conditions have improved limitedly. Stainless steel's production cut effect is weakening, and inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rebounds of nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 122000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 increased in position and rose by more than 5% [20] - **Industrial Logic**: The total inventory has stopped accumulating, and production has decreased. The compliance risk of lithium mining licenses in Jiangxi is a key point. The supply - demand situation may improve in August [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is still an expectation of supply speculation. Try buying on dips in the range of [715000 - 73600] [22]