当地时间10月26日，巴西总统卢拉表示，当天他在马来西亚首都吉隆坡与美国总统特朗普举行了富有建 设性的会谈，两国相关团队将 "立即" 着手讨论关税及其他议题。卢拉称，巴美双方同意立即召开会 议，就关税问题及针对巴西官员的制裁措施寻求解决方案。卢拉表示，巴美两国之间没有"冲突"的理 由。美国总统特朗普表示，期待与巴西达成"良好协议"。巴西外长维埃拉表示，卢拉与特朗普在会谈中 达成共识，在巴西和美国代表进行谈判期间，将暂停征收关税。 （文章来源：央视新闻客户端） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade talks between China and the U.S. in Kuala Lumpur highlighted the ongoing tensions and the need for both sides to build mutual trust and manage differences, with a focus on various trade issues including tariffs and fentanyl cooperation [2][5][6]. Group 1: Trade Negotiation Context - The fifth round of trade negotiations took place in Kuala Lumpur, with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng expressing hope for mutual efforts to build trust and manage differences [2]. - Key discussion topics included U.S. maritime logistics and shipbuilding industry measures, extension of the "reciprocal tariff" suspension, fentanyl tariffs and enforcement cooperation, agricultural trade, and export controls [2]. - Chinese Commerce Ministry representative Li Chenggang noted that both sides had in-depth and candid discussions, leading to a preliminary consensus [2]. Group 2: U.S. Stance and Historical Context - Li Chenggang indicated that the U.S. maintained a hardline stance throughout the negotiations, reflecting a consistent approach since the first round in Geneva [5]. - The article draws attention to the symbolic meanings of the negotiation locations, suggesting a pessimistic outlook on the negotiations [5]. - The U.S. has engaged in disruptive activities prior to the Kuala Lumpur talks, with Treasury Secretary Yellen reportedly expressing critical views towards Chinese representatives [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Positioning - China is positioned to counter U.S. hegemonic practices, while the U.S. has shown insincerity in negotiations, particularly regarding tariffs and fentanyl, which are seen as tools rather than genuine negotiation points [6]. - The article suggests that maintaining normal diplomatic relations and avoiding extreme opposition is crucial, with trade cooperation possible in mutually acceptable areas [6]. - The notion that U.S.-China relations cannot return to previous states is acknowledged, emphasizing the need for both sides to work towards a new, equitable relationship [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips considering the ongoing tightness in the mining end and the growth in infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are decent, and keep an eye on terminal demand. In the long run, hold at low prices [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, it is recommended to wait and see or consider short - selling LME zinc. For the internal - external spread, gradually take profits on long internal - short external spreads and watch for far - month reverse spreads. For the monthly spread, pay attention to the positive spread between December and February [2]. - For nickel, with a weak short - term real - world fundamental situation, it is advisable to wait and see due to ongoing disruptions in the Indonesian mining end and increased short - term macro uncertainties [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainties and some price - supporting motivation from Indonesian policies [8]. - For lead, expect narrow - range oscillations in the lead price next week between 17,000 - 17,300, and consider positive spreads [10]. - For tin, in the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systemic macro risk, the tin price may have a large downside. In the long - term, hold near the cost line on dips [12]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it will oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [13]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, supply and demand are both strong with a de - stocking trend. In the long - term, the elasticity of demand, especially with the increasing proportion of energy storage, is the key variable for a pattern reversal [14]. Group 3: Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 20, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 199, and there were various changes in inventory and import profitability indicators [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is influenced by tariff negotiations. Fundamentally, smelting production cuts are higher than expected, and there was medium - level inventory accumulation this week. Downstream price - fixing quantities and purchasing sentiment are acceptable, and the psychological price - fixing level has risen. Copper cable and aluminum cable starts have diverged [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices increased by 60, the domestic alumina price decreased by 5, and there were changes in inventory and premium indicators [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Production capacity is flat. Demand from photovoltaic components has stabilized. There was seasonal inventory accumulation during the holiday and significant post - holiday de - stocking. The global economic recovery and Fed rate - cut expectations coexist with Sino - US trade uncertainties, leading to a divergence in internal and external market trends [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 20, and there were changes in prices, inventory, and import profitability indicators. The LME C - 3M decreased by 113, and LME inventory decreased by 600 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price oscillated this week. On the supply side, domestic TC decreased, and imported TC increased. The domestic ore supply will be tighter from Q4 this year to Q1 next year, while overseas ore supply increased significantly in Q2. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas European demand is average. The domestic social inventory oscillated, and the LME inventory decreased [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 100, and there were changes in import profitability and LME - related indicators [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production remains at a high level. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating both domestically and overseas [4]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled sheets, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Steel mills' production in October increased slightly compared to the previous month. Demand is mainly from rigid needs. Costs of ferronickel and ferrochrome are stable. Inventory remains at a high level [8]. Lead - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 10, and there were changes in price spreads, inventory, and import profitability indicators [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The lead price oscillated slightly at a high level this week. On the supply side, scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and recycled lead production is expected to increase in October. On the demand side, battery production increased this week, but there is an expectation of weakening demand after the National Day holiday [10]. Tin - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the tin position decreased by 47, the LME C - 3M increased by 45, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The tin price oscillated this week. On the supply side, the processing fee for tin ore is at a low level, and supply is gradually recovering. On the demand side, the solder market warmed up slightly during the peak season, and domestic inventory decreased slightly [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased by 220, and the basis of 553 in East China and Tianjin also decreased by 220. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 367 [13]. - **Market Analysis**: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang resumed production this week. The overall supply of industrial silicon will decline in the dry season, but considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply - demand balance in Q4 is slightly loose [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From October 17 - 23, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 450, the basis of the main contract decreased by 2370, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 260 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The lithium carbonate price oscillated strongly this week. On the raw material side, the ore market is firm, and spot supply is tight. On the lithium salt side, consumption and de - stocking are better than expected [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips considering the ongoing tightness in the mining end and the growth in infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it is advisable to hold at low prices in the long term while keeping an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential export opportunities, it is recommended to wait and see or consider shorting LME zinc. For the spread between domestic and overseas markets, gradually take profits on long domestic - short overseas positions and look for reverse spread opportunities in the far - month contracts. For the month - to - month spread, focus on the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, with a weak short - term fundamental situation and increased short - term macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainties and some price - support motivation from Indonesian policies [9]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and overseas lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,300, and positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. - For tin, follow the macro sentiment in the short term and wait and see. If there is a systematic macro risk, the tin price may have a large downward space. In the medium - to - long - term, buy at low prices near the cost line [13]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost in the medium - to - long - term [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply and demand are both strong in the short term, maintaining a de - stocking trend. In the long - term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for the pattern change [15]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market sentiment is mainly influenced by tariff negotiation progress. The impact of this tariff conflict is estimated to be no higher than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, when LME copper fell 12% and gold rose 2.6%. There is still room for negotiation, and the progress of the South Korea negotiation should be monitored [1]. - Fundamentally, the smelting reduction is more than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream's price - setting volume and receiving sentiment are acceptable, and the psychological price - setting level has significantly increased. The copper cable's recent start - up diverges from that of the aluminum cable, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the start - up stabilizes [1]. Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules on the demand side stabilizes, and the proportion of aluminum water in September has significantly rebounded. There is seasonal inventory accumulation in aluminum ingots and aluminum rods due to the holiday effect, but the post - holiday de - stocking amplitude is considerable, and the apparent demand rises [1]. - The global economic recovery signs are emerging, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthened, but the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations deepens, causing a certain divergence in the trends of domestic and overseas markets [1]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillates this week. On the supply side, the domestic TC further decreases, and the imported TC further increases. The domestic ore will be marginally tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas ore increment in the second quarter exceeds expectations. In August, China imported 460,000 tons of zinc ore, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43%. In October, the smelting end recovers slightly month - on - month, and the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on the total profit should be noted when the domestic ore processing fee declines [2]. - On the demand side, the domestic demand is seasonally weak and may continue to oscillate weakly after the peak season in September. Overseas, the European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees. Domestically, the social inventory oscillates, while the overseas LME inventory decreases, and the visible inventory is close to the lowest level in the past two years. The export window has opened under the current situation of strong overseas and weak domestic markets, and some smelters and traders are preparing for exports [2]. Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remains at a high level. On the demand side, the overall demand is weak, and the premium has been stable recently. On the inventory side, both domestic and overseas inventories continue to accumulate. The short - term fundamental situation is weak [5]. - There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices. The short - term macro uncertainty increases [5]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, the steel mills' production schedule in October increases slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it is mainly driven by rigid demand. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventory remains at a high level, and the warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The overall fundamentals are weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainties and some price - support motivation from Indonesian policies [9]. Lead - The lead price oscillates slightly at a high level this week. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year - on - year. The recovery of recycled lead profits is expected to lead to an incremental production of 20,000 - 30,000 tons in October. The macro sentiment combined with the shortage of waste batteries may drive recyclers to support prices. The concentrate mine's operation rate increases, and the high smelting profit of primary lead leads to a shortage of concentrates, with the TC quotation declining in a chaotic manner [10][11]. - On the demand side, the battery's operation rate increases this week, but the battery's finished - product inventory is high. After the National Day stocking, the demand is expected to weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 50, and the recycled lead production has gradually started to output. The LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased by 100,000 tons. There is an expectation of the peak season turning to the off - season in October. After the National Day, the downstream replenishes goods, and there is a short - term inventory - picking demand [11]. Tin - The tin price oscillates this week. On the supply side, the mining processing fee is at a low level. Some scattered orders have tentatively raised the quotation, but large - scale transactions have not occurred yet. The maintenance of Yunnan Tin has ended, and the supply has marginally recovered. Overseas, the import from Wa State in August is still low, but the recovery expectation in October is strong, and it is expected to maintain above 600 metal tons. The quota approval of Indonesia's PT Timah has been completed, and exports resumed in mid - to - late September. The Indonesian president announced that tin ingot exports will return to normal levels in 2026 [13]. - On the demand side, the solder peak season has a slight recovery, mainly supported by rigidity at high prices. After the festival, the arrival of goods is slow, and the domestic inventory decreases slightly. The overseas LME inventory oscillates at a low level. The domestic fundamentals show a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. Pay attention to the expected change of the peak season not being prosperous after the marginal recovery of supply at home and abroad in October and the impact of the interest - rate cut expectation on the non - ferrous metals as a whole [13]. Industrial Silicon - This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continue to resume production, with 35 furnaces in the west and 55 in the east. The number of operating furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan will significantly decrease in the future. The overall supply of industrial silicon will decline month - on - month during the dry season. Considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply - demand situation of industrial silicon in Q4 is still in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 40,000 - 50,000 tons. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, the operating rate is low, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price oscillates strongly this week. On the raw material side, the mining end continues to support prices. Due to the significant reduction of the previous inventory, the holders' reluctance to sell is strong, and the spot market is tight. On the lithium salt side, the consumption trend and de - stocking level continuously exceed expectations. With the acceleration of warehouse receipt cancellation this week, the basis of first - tier brands also runs strongly [15]. - In the short term, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the overall de - stocking trend is maintained. It is expected to de - stock 8,000 - 10,000 tons in October. At the end of the year, there are multiple expected games such as the weakening of power demand in the off - season, the sustainability of energy - storage demand, and the supply disturbance in Jiangxi. In the long - term pattern, the supply growth rate at the current price is relatively certain, and the subsequent elasticity of the demand side with the increasing proportion of energy - storage is the key variable for the pattern change [15].

Core Insights - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates a weakening trend in both domestic and export sales of household air conditioners in September, influenced by base effects and policy changes [1] - Despite the overall decline, Haier has shown significant growth, suggesting a divergence in performance among leading brands [1][3] - The white goods sector has been underperforming since Q3 2025, with current relative valuations at historical lows, indicating that short-term pressures may already be priced in [1] Group 1: Production and Sales Data - In September, the production of household air conditioners reached 10.57 million units, down 13.48% year-on-year, while sales totaled 10.88 million units, down 10.24% year-on-year [1] - Domestic sales were 5.95 million units, a decrease of 2.52% year-on-year, while exports were 4.94 million units, down 18.06% year-on-year [1] - Inventory at the end of the month stood at 14.26 million units, a decline of 2.36% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Domestic Market Trends - Domestic air conditioner sales in September saw a year-on-year decline of 3%, aligning with expectations due to a high base effect [2] - The upcoming policy for replacing old units in Q4 2024 is expected to drive a significant increase in domestic sales, with projections of a 24% year-on-year growth [2] - The retail volume for online and offline sales showed a two-year CAGR of 31% and 1%, respectively, indicating stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [2] Group 3: Brand Performance - In September, Midea and Gree experienced year-on-year sales declines of 15% and 13%, respectively, while Haier reported a 25% increase [3] - Haier's market share increased by 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable 37% growth in Q3 2025 [3] - The average retail prices for air conditioners showed a slight increase of 0.4% online but a decrease of 7.5% offline, reflecting pressure on volume sales [3] Group 4: Export Market Dynamics - Export sales of air conditioners fell by 18% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the external market [4] - There are signs of improvement in export orders for leading brands, with production guidance for October and November showing a decrease of 9.4% and 6.6% compared to the same period last year [4] - The anticipated growth in export sales for Q4 2024 is projected at 49%, although challenges remain due to trade negotiations and tariff issues [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued investment in leading brands such as Haier Smart Home, Midea Group, Hisense Home Appliances, and Gree Electric Appliances, highlighting their resilience and high-quality attributes [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The market is still dominated by the progress of tariff negotiations. For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips, considering selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventory. For aluminum, keep an eye on terminal demand in the short - term and hold on dips in the long - term. For zinc, suggest waiting and watching or considering shorting LME zinc, gradually taking profits on long - short spreads and looking for far - month reverse spreads, and paying attention to the 12 - 02 long - short spread. For nickel, suggest waiting and watching due to short - term weak fundamentals and increased macro uncertainties. For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak with short - term macro uncertainties and some price - supporting motivation from Indonesian policies. For lead, expect prices to fluctuate narrowly between 17,000 - 17,300 and consider long - short spreads. For tin, wait and watch in the short - term and hold on dips near the cost line in the long - term. For industrial silicon, expect prices to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and cycle at the bottom based on seasonal marginal costs in the long - term. For lithium carbonate, it shows a strong supply - demand pattern in the short - term, and the elasticity of demand is the key variable in the long - term [1][2][4][8][10][12][13][14] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market is influenced by tariff negotiations. The impact of this tariff conflict is estimated to be no higher than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The smelting reduction is higher than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream's psychological price for point - pricing has risen. Copper cable and aluminum cable's operations have diverged. Maintain a buying - on - dips strategy and pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1] Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production of photovoltaic components has stabilized. There is seasonal inventory accumulation for aluminum ingots and rods, but post - holiday inventory reduction is significant. The global economic recovery is showing signs, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation is strengthening, but Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain. The short - term fundamentals are okay [1] Zinc - The price fluctuates this week. The domestic TC decreases, and the imported TC increases. The domestic zinc ore will be tighter from Q4 this year to Q1 next year, while overseas ore production increased more than expected in Q2. The smelting in October has slightly recovered. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The domestic social inventory fluctuates, and the LME inventory is decreasing. The export window has opened [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level. The demand is weak, and the premium is stable. Both domestic and overseas inventories are increasing. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian ore end, and the policy has price - supporting motivation. The short - term fundamentals are weak [3][4] Stainless Steel - The steel mills' production in October has slightly increased. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. The inventory is at a high level [8] Lead - The price fluctuates slightly at a high level. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. The recycled lead production is expected to increase by 2 - 3 tons in October. The battery production rate has increased, but the finished - product inventory is high, and the demand is expected to weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 50. The LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased by 100,000 tons. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 17,000 - 17,300 next week [9][10] Tin - The price fluctuates. The ore processing fee is at a low level. The supply has marginally recovered after the Yunnan Tin's maintenance. Overseas imports from Wa State are expected to recover in October, and Indonesia's exports have resumed. The demand for solder has slightly improved during the peak season. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased, and the LME inventory is at a low - level [12] Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises continue to resume production, while the production in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly during the dry season. The supply - demand in Q4 is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 4 - 5 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term [13] Lithium Carbonate - The price fluctuates strongly. The ore end continues to hold prices, and the spot is tight. The consumption and inventory reduction of lithium salts exceed expectations. The supply - demand is strong in the short - term, with an expected inventory reduction of 8,000 - 10,000 tons in October. The elasticity of demand is the key in the long - term [14]

（原标题：泰国因与柬埔寨的争端可能面临1000亿泰铢的损失） 政府发言人西里蓬在会议上表示，虽然当前的旅游业低迷并非这场争端的直接 后果，但持续的冲突可能会引发外国游客的安全担忧。他呼吁政府开展公关活 动，向外界证明泰国仍然是一个安全的旅游目的地。 这些紧张局势也导致一些柬埔寨移民工人选择返回家乡，这使得泰国这个人口 迅速老龄化的国家失去了重要的劳动力来源。为应对可能出现的劳动力短缺问 题，泰国劳工部已要求相关部门开始对那些没有合法工作证的外来工人进行登 记，将其作为"临时替代措施"。 据曼谷邮报10月21日报道,由于今年早些时候长期存在的领土争端升级为 武装冲突，总理阿努廷政府预计，与柬埔寨的跨境贸易中断将导致该国经济损 失高达1000亿泰铢。 在10月15日举行的经济部长会议上，阿努廷先生呼吁与美国的谈判应"谨慎进 行"，并强调这场边界争端可能会影响泰国的关税谈判。 特朗普政府已对泰国出口商品征收19%的关税，但泰国政府希望与美方协商降 低这一税率。经济学家警告称，出口放缓以及游客数量减少可能会阻碍泰国在 今年下半年的经济增长。 据彭博新闻获得的上周经济委员会会议记录显示，由于两国边境口岸的关 闭，泰国企 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is still dominated by the progress of tariff negotiations. The impact of this tariff conflict is not expected to be higher than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. There is still room for negotiation, and attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations with South Korea. For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and long - term holding on dips is recommended. Keep an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but the export window may open. In the face of increasing macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see or consider shorting LME zinc. For spreads, pay attention to the positive spread opportunities between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian mining sector and increasing short - term macro uncertainties, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak. There is short - term macro uncertainty, and the Indonesian policy side has a certain motivation to support prices [9]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and international lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,300. Positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. - For tin, the short - term domestic fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand. In the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. In the long term, buy on dips near the cost line [13]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [14]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, supply and demand are both strong, and the de - stocking trend is maintained. In the long term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for pattern reversal [15]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the spot price of Shanghai copper remained stable, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 554, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1530, and the import profit decreased by 246.01 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is affected by tariff negotiations. The smelting reduction is higher than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream's psychological price for pricing has increased. The copper cable's operation is different from that of the aluminum cable. Maintain a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots decreased by 20, the domestic alumina price decreased by 11, and the LME inventory decreased by 4100 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating capacity is flat. The demand for photovoltaic modules has stabilized. There is seasonal inventory accumulation during the festival, and the post - festival de - stocking is significant. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and long - term holding on dips is recommended [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 20, the LME C - 3M increased by 93, and the LME inventory decreased by 700 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic TC decreases, and the imported TC increases. The domestic mine is tightening, and the overseas mine has an unexpected increase. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average. The export window has opened [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 150, the LME inventory decreased by 48, and the LME C - 3M decreased by 3 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing both at home and abroad. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian mining sector and increasing short - term macro uncertainties, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel mill's production in October increases slightly. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remain stable. The inventory remains at a high level, and the fundamentals are weak [9]. Lead - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the spot premium increased by 15, the LME inventory decreased by 3100, and the LME C - 3M remained unchanged [10][11]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply may increase by 2 - 30,000 tons in October. The demand is expected to weaken. The inventory is at the historical average level. It is expected that the lead price will oscillate narrowly next week, and positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. Tin - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the tin position decreased by 1300, the LME C - 3M increased by 30, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is marginally repaired. The demand is slightly warmer during the peak season. The short - term domestic fundamentals show weak supply and demand. In the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. In the long term, buy on dips near the cost line [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the 421 Yunnan, 421 Sichuan, 553 East China, and 553 Tianjin basis all decreased by 135, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 811 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply will decrease in the dry season. In Q4, the supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 650, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 19 [14][15]. - **Market Analysis**: The raw material side is firm, and the lithium salt consumption and de - stocking exceed expectations. In the short term, supply and demand are both strong, and the de - stocking trend is maintained. In the long term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for pattern reversal [15].

Core Insights - The report indicates a market style shift, with a transition from "storytelling" to "performance" as liquidity tightens and investors focus on companies with high earnings visibility [6][7] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a tightening liquidity condition, with the Federal Reserve signaling the potential end of balance sheet reduction, which may lead to lower long-term interest rates benefiting gold and long bonds [7][9] - The report highlights the importance of cash flow stability and reasonable valuations in the current market, suggesting a preference for high-quality companies while avoiding high beta small-cap stocks [9][10] Market Performance Summary - The Nasdaq ETF (Invesco QQQ Trust) experienced a decline of 1.17% over one day and 2.34% over five days, while the S&P 500 ETF (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) saw a decrease of 0.10% and 1.18% respectively [4] - The Russell 3000 Index fell by 0.37% over one day and 1.41% over five days, indicating a general downturn in the broader market [4] - Gold prices increased by 1.33% over one day, reflecting its status as a safe-haven asset amid market volatility [4][9] Economic Indicators - The report notes that the VIX index, a measure of market volatility, rose by 6.40%, indicating increased market uncertainty [4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is reported at 4.0%, with a slight increase of 2 basis points, suggesting a stable interest rate environment [4] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) showed a slight decline, reflecting a potential weakening of the dollar in the face of macroeconomic uncertainties [4][9] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining positions in gold and high-quality long bonds as a hedge against market volatility, while favoring defensive equities with strong cash flows [9][10] - It suggests a tactical shift towards larger companies with solid earnings and avoiding small-cap stocks that exhibit high volatility [9][10] - The report emphasizes the need for investors to prepare for potential fluctuations in trade negotiations and Federal Reserve policies, advocating for a cautious approach in the current environment [9][10]

Core Insights - The market is experiencing volatility with daily fluctuations, influenced by factors such as tariff negotiations and Federal Reserve meetings [3] - There is a mixed sentiment in the market, with both positive and negative influences affecting future strategies [3] Market Dynamics - The post-holiday market has shown continuous ups and downs, indicating a turbulent trading environment [3] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and strengthening internal circulation is highlighted as a key strategy moving forward [3] Expert Guidance - Northeast Securities is hosting a live session featuring experienced investment advisors to provide insights and guidance on navigating the current market conditions [3]