Macro Strategy - The "Great Beautiful Act" has been quickly implemented, but its distribution effects and the tightening fiscal impact from excluding extended and expanded tax cuts limit its growth stimulus for the US economy [1][24] - The act's characteristic of "increasing deficits first, reducing deficits later" implies a risk of a "fiscal cliff" around 2028 [1][24] - In the short term, concerns about the impact of US Treasury issuance on market liquidity and yield premiums are not excessive; however, the long-term path dependency of unsustainable US government debt makes it difficult for Treasury yield premiums to decrease [1][24] Fixed Income - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident as the stock market stabilizes, influencing bond yields; the 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.641% to 1.666% during the week [3][5] - The bond market's reaction to Trump's threats of additional tariffs on BRICS countries was muted, indicating a limited impact on bond yields [3][5] - The bond yield's upward trend is expected to continue, influenced by stock market performance, but the extent of the increase is likely to be limited [5] Industry Insights - Wanda Film's diversified layout in esports and concert live streaming is expected to create new growth points, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.0 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.44 billion yuan, respectively [8] - Lianlian Digital is projected to achieve a reasonable P/S valuation of 8.0x and 7.0x for 2025 and 2026, respectively, as it continues to expand its business [10] - Youyou Foods has revised its profit forecast upwards, expecting net profits of 232 million, 285 million, and 329 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a growth rate of 47.2%, 23.2%, and 15.3% [11] - Siyi Electric's net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 1.293 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46%, driven by strong overseas orders [14][15] - The energy sector, represented by Furan Energy, anticipates stable growth in natural gas supply and a steady increase in new energy business, with net profit forecasts of 872 million, 922 million, and 976 million yuan for 2025-2027 [12] - The lithium battery sector, represented by Weilan Lithium Core, has revised its profit expectations upwards, forecasting net profits of 750 million, 1 billion, and 1.31 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting significant growth [13] - The pharmaceutical sector, represented by Lianbang Pharmaceutical, is expected to see revenue growth driven by innovative drug development, with net profits projected at 3.11 billion, 3.10 billion, and 3.38 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, when the bond market has no clear trading theme, bond yields may be affected by the stock market and tend to rise, but the increase is limited. The bond market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and liquidity is favorable for the bond market. Yields rising to 1.7% present a configuration opportunity [1][15]. - For US Treasury yields, considering the tariff policy's potential impact on prices and the support of stable - coin reserves for short - term Treasury bonds, the outlook is complex. The Fed has different views on whether to cut interest rates, and the probability of interest rate cuts in different months has changed [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Views - **Impact of the "Stock - Bond Seesaw" on the Bond Market**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond rose from 1.641% to 1.666%. The stock market's performance significantly affected bond yields this week. Currently, it is more of a liquidity - driven stock bull market, and the bond market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [1][10][15]. - **Trend of US Treasury Yields**: From July 4 - 11, overseas markets generally continued the previous week's trend. US Treasury bonds fell while US stocks remained flat. The increase in short - term US Treasury yields was weaker than that of long - term ones. Considering various data and Fed officials' statements, the probability of Fed interest rate cuts in different months has changed [3]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summary 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the total net investment in open - market operations was - 2265 billion yuan [31]. - **Interest Rates**: Various money market interest rates such as R, DR, and SHIBOR changed slightly from July 4 to 11 [33]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Real - Estate Market**: The total transaction area of commercial housing decreased [52]. - **Commodity Prices**: Steel prices rose across the board, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed trends [54]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, 45 local bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 231.79 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 121.561 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 110.229 billion yuan [84]. - **Regional Distribution**: 12 provinces and cities issued local bonds, with Guizhou, Hunan, and Heilongjiang ranking in the top three in terms of issuance amount [85]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of local bonds this week was 37.0728 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.71%. The top three provinces with the most active trading were Hunan, Guangdong, and Shandong [98]. - **Yield Changes**: The yields of local bonds showed a general downward trend [102]. 3.3.3 Local Bond Issuance Plan for the Month The issuance plans of local bonds in different provinces and cities from July 14 - 18 are provided [110]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Total Issuance**: This week, 333 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 287.445 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 199.101 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 88.344 billion yuan, an increase of 10.205 billion yuan compared to last week [106]. - **By Bond Type**: The net financing amounts of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, corporate bonds, and private placement notes varied [112]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and corporate bonds changed to different extents [120]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 588.518 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different credit ratings and bond types [122]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity The yields to maturity of national development bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different trends of increase or decrease [123][125][126][127]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [128][130][132][136]. 3.4.6 Rating Spreads The rating spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed, while those of corporate bonds showed a general widening trend [142][145][148]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds for each bond type are listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [151][152].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas markets in the week from July 7th to July 11th continued the previous week's trend, with U.S. Treasuries falling and U.S. stocks remaining flat. The short - end of U.S. Treasuries had a weaker upward movement than the long - end. Market concerns about the impact of Trump's tariff policy on prices and the use of short - term U.S. Treasuries as reserves for stablecoins support the short - end of U.S. Treasuries. The global "re - globalization" process brings challenges of regional supply - demand imbalance, making it difficult for global central banks to act in unison [1][40]. - In the domestic market, it is the interim report preview period. Buying based on performance is the trading theme, and policies aim to clear the blockages in the "internal cycle". Three dimensions are used to find opportunities in the second half of the year: valuation repair for mid - low - rated targets, performance repair for mid - low - price style targets, and promoting conversion of quasi - expiring targets. The intersection of these three dimensions may be the key area for incremental allocation, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of under - invested funds while maintaining a high - low style switch [1][41]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Market Review 3.1.1. Equity Market - The equity market rose overall from July 7th to July 11th. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09% to 3510.18 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78% to 10696.10 points, the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% to 2207.10 points, and the CSI 300 rose 0.82% to 4014.81 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 608.87 billion yuan to 14761.69 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 4.30% [6][8]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 25 industries rose, with 12 industries rising more than 2%. Steel, non - bank finance, building materials, computer, and environmental protection led the gains, while coal, banks, automobiles, and household appliances led the losses [13]. 3.1.2. Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market rose by 0.76% to 450.85 points from July 7th to July 11th. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 28 industries rose, with 3 industries rising more than 2%. Coal, non - bank finance, social services, computer, and building materials led the gains, while banks led the losses [16]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 712.79 billion yuan, a significant increase of 32.55 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 4.79%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume had an average trading volume of 123.57 billion yuan, and the first - ranked had a trading volume of 373.80 billion yuan. About 73.17% of convertible bond issues rose [16]. - The overall market conversion premium rate continued to decline, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 44.32%, a decrease of 2.05 pcts compared to the previous week. Different price and parity intervals showed different trends in the conversion premium rate [22]. 3.1.3. Stock - Bond Market Sentiment Comparison - From July 7th to July 11th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly increase. The trading volume of both the convertible bond and underlying stock markets increased significantly. About 73.45% of convertible bonds and 70.47% of underlying stocks rose, and about 36.90% of convertible bonds had a higher gain - loss ratio than underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better [35]. 3.2. Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - Continue to pay attention to the three dimensions of mid - low - rated targets, mid - low - price style targets, and quasi - expiring targets to find opportunities in the second half of the year. Increase the allocation of under - invested funds and maintain a high - low style switch to balance offense and defense [1][41]. - The top ten high - rated, mid - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Hexing Convertible Bond, Pufa Convertible Bond, Hailiang Convertible Bond, Haoke Convertible Bond, Xingsen Convertible Bond, Liqun Convertible Bond, Fenghuo Convertible Bond, Ying 19 Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond, and Shouhua Convertible Bond [1][41]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the recent U.S. tariff increases are ineffective and that the trend of re-globalization is irreversible [1][3] - It discusses the anxiety in the U.S. regarding its declining global dominance, which has led to current tensions, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [3][4] - The article highlights that the U.S. has shifted from multilateralism to a more transactional approach, which reveals a lack of strategic coherence [3][4] Group 2 - It points out that the U.S. manufacturing sector's decline is not solely due to trade agreements but is a result of a deep transformation of American capital over the past 40 years [4][5] - The article notes that while the U.S. continues to produce high-end and advanced technology products, these sectors are capital-intensive and cannot replace the jobs lost in labor-intensive manufacturing [4][5] - It mentions that emerging economies are increasingly seeking alternatives to the U.S. dollar for trade, particularly in the context of regional trade agreements [5][6] Group 3 - The article concludes that the U.S.-China trade dispute reflects a broader historical trend towards multipolarity and diversification of global reserve currencies [5][6] - It asserts that the world is not experiencing de-globalization but is instead advancing re-globalization under new conditions and rules [5][6]

Group 1: Global Trade and Economic Outlook - The impact of U.S. tariffs is still significant despite signs of easing, with high absolute values remaining and potential inflation effects persisting [1][3] - The global market is facing challenges due to high interest rates and supply chain reorientation, with a 40% probability of the U.S. economy entering recession [3][4] - The trade corridors between China and regions such as the Middle East, Latin America, and ASEAN are experiencing significant growth, indicating a shift towards "re-globalization" [1][5] Group 2: China-ASEAN Trade Relations - The completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations is expected to boost bilateral trade, projected to reach $982.2 billion by 2024 [1][7] - The ongoing development of the free trade agreement is viewed as a key area of focus for Morgan Stanley, highlighting the importance of capturing new trade corridor opportunities [7] Group 3: Corporate Strategy and Market Adaptation - Companies are shifting from product sales to brand building in overseas markets, emphasizing the need for localization and understanding of local consumer demands [2][8] - Morgan Stanley has integrated its commercial banking operations into its global corporate banking structure to better serve businesses of varying sizes and lifecycle stages [2] Group 4: Artificial Intelligence and Technological Innovation - Morgan Stanley has been utilizing artificial intelligence for over a decade in areas such as fraud detection and risk management, with a focus on enhancing productivity and operational efficiency [9][10] - The development of the LLM suite is central to the bank's AI strategy, significantly improving the ability to summarize information and automate various business scenarios [9][10]

Group 1 - The 21st Global China Summit hosted by JPMorgan took place in Shanghai from May 22 to 23, focusing on the theme "Capital as a Bridge Connecting the World" [2] - Key topics discussed included the intersection of policy and markets, energy cooperation, and technological innovation, emphasizing the importance of ongoing dialogue amid macroeconomic uncertainty [2] - JPMorgan's Global Corporate Bank Co-Head, Bregje de Best, highlighted a trend of "re-globalization" rather than "de-globalization," with significant growth in trade corridors between China and regions like the Middle East and Latin America [2] Group 2 - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, noting substantial progress in recent China-U.S. economic talks, which create conditions for continued economic cooperation [2] - He Lifeng emphasized China's commitment to building a unified national market and expanding high-level openness, welcoming U.S. companies, including JPMorgan, to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation [2] - Jamie Dimon expressed a positive view on the outcomes of the U.S.-China economic talks and indicated JPMorgan's intention to deepen its involvement in the Chinese capital market [2]

Group 1 - The recent punitive tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese electric vehicles, batteries, photovoltaics, and semiconductors have reached a high of 245%, but their impact is limited compared to the initial tariffs introduced in 2018 [3][6] - The U.S. has lost its ability to control China's trajectory, as China has become less reliant on the U.S. market and is now focusing on "re-globalization" [3][6] - The tariffs, initially intended to disrupt supply chains and increase manufacturing costs, have turned into a political show for the U.S., resulting in limited effectiveness and self-harm [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. has not successfully brought manufacturing jobs back to the Rust Belt states; instead, inflation has increased, consumer costs have risen, and corporate investments have slowed down [5][9] - Chinese companies have proactively diversified their markets, targeting Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa, with no U.S. presence among the top five export destinations for Chinese electric vehicles [5][10] - The U.S. strategy of "decoupling" has failed, as it underestimated China's resilience and overestimated the willingness of allies to comply with U.S. directives [6][12] Group 3 - The essence of the tariff war is a struggle for control and dominance, with the U.S. attempting to exclude China from its technology, trade, and financial systems [6][9] - As the U.S. attempts to decouple, China is enhancing its internal circulation and innovation, developing self-reliant technologies in semiconductors and batteries [7][9] - The U.S. has transitioned from being a "rule-maker" to a "rule-disruptor," undermining the global systems it once established, while China continues to expand its influence within these systems [15][16] Group 4 - The recent tariffs are more of a political signal than a strategic tool, indicating a loss of control by the U.S. over its policies and objectives [13][16] - The competition between the U.S. and China is evolving from a simple power struggle to a contest of institutional resilience, economic endurance, and industrial strategy [15][18] - The U.S. has reached a point where its actions no longer dictate China's future, and the transfer of dominance is occurring subtly through repeated tariff increases [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of globalization from 1.0 to 3.0, highlighting the impact of MAGAism and the rise of protectionism, leading to a potential collapse of the current global trade system and the emergence of a new, more inclusive globalization model driven by digital technology and emerging economies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Globalization 1.0 - Globalization 1.0 was established post-World War II, primarily led by the United States, focusing on rebuilding economies through international cooperation and the establishment of organizations like the IMF and World Bank [7][8]. - The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was signed in 1947, leading to a significant reduction in global tariff levels, with an average annual trade growth rate of 7.8% from 1950 to 1973 [7][8]. - The period was characterized by a division between capitalist and socialist blocs, resulting in a structured but not fully globalized trade system [9]. Group 2: Globalization 2.0 - Globalization 2.0 began after the Cold War, marked by the establishment of the WTO in 1995, which facilitated a true global economic integration, particularly between the U.S. and China [11][12]. - The period saw rapid trade liberalization, with global tariffs dropping from 6.2% in 1991 to 3.2% in 2006, and significant growth in international investment [12][13]. - The rise of emerging economies, particularly China and India, began to reshape the global economic landscape, contributing to a multi-polar world [15]. Group 3: MAGAism and Its Impact - MAGAism has led to a rise in protectionist policies in the U.S., which may provide short-term benefits to certain industries but could disrupt global supply chains and increase consumer costs in the long run [20][21]. - The political polarization in the U.S. has intensified, with MAGAism exacerbating divisions between different social and economic groups, impacting political stability and governance [21][22]. - The global implications of MAGAism include a decline in U.S. leadership in international affairs and a shift towards a more fragmented global trade environment [22][23]. Group 4: Transition to Globalization 3.0 - The article posits that the world is transitioning towards Globalization 3.0, characterized by a more inclusive and technology-driven economic model, despite the challenges posed by de-globalization and protectionism [26][27]. - Emerging economies are advocating for a more open and cooperative global economic system, as seen in initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and RCEP [26]. - The future of globalization is seen as an inevitable trend, with the potential for a new economic order that is less dominated by major powers and more reliant on digital technologies [27].