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纯碱&玻璃产业链周度数据-20251212
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 06:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - No core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the report Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The current week's soda ash开工率 is 84.35%, up 3.61 from the previous value, and the产量 is 73.54 tons, up 3.15 tons. The heavy产量 is 39.78 tons, up 1.63 tons, and the light产量 is 33.76 tons, up 1.52 tons. The current week's float glass开工率 is 73.844%, up 0.217 from the previous value, the number of production lines is 219, up 1, and the产量 is 108.4895 tons, down 0.02 tons [1] Inventory - The current week's soda ash厂内库存 is 149.43 tons, down 4.43 tons. The heavy库存 is 79.05 tons, down 2.03 tons, and the light库存 is 70.38 tons, down 2.4 tons. The库存可用天数 is 12.39 days, down 0.37 days. The current week's float glass库存 is 5822.7 ten thousand weight boxes, down 121.5 ten thousand weight boxes, and the库存可用天数 is 26.3 days, down 0.5 days [1] Profit - The current week's soda ash天然气利润 is -196.42 yuan/ton, up 26.58 yuan/ton. The氨碱法毛利 is -67.6 yuan/ton, up 0.9 yuan/ton, the联产法毛利 is -49 yuan/ton, up 49.5 yuan/ton. The float glass石油焦利润 is 35.64 yuan/ton, up 14.28 yuan/ton, the煤制气利润 is 6.51 yuan/ton, down 0.01 yuan/ton [1] Basis & Spread - The current week's soda ash基差 is 10, up 40 from the previous value, the 1 - 5价差 is 50, down 20. The float glass基差 is 71, up 24, the 1 - 5价差 is 97, down 24. The纯碱 - glass 01价差 is 147, down 5, and the纯碱 - glass 05价差 is 100, down 1 [1]
沥青早报-20251212
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 01:44
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo) was -30 on 11/11, 42 on 12/5, -43 on 12/9, -40 on 12/10, -60 on 12/11, with a daily change of -20 and a weekly change of -102 [2][3] - The East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) was 100 on 11/11, 92 on 12/5, 97 on 12/9, 100 on 12/10, 20 on 12/11, with a daily change of -80 and a weekly change of -72 [2][3] - The South China basis (Foshan warehouse) was 80 on 11/11, -18 on 12/5, 17 on 12/9, 20 on 12/10, 0 on 12/11, with a daily change of -20 and a weekly change of 18 [2][3] - The 01 - 03 spread was -40 on 11/11, -25 on 12/5, -35 on 12/9, -36 on 12/10, -28 on 12/11, with a daily change of 8 and a weekly change of -3 [2][3] - The 02 - 03 spread was -26 on 11/11, -14 on 12/5, -20 on 12/9, -18 on 12/10, -13 on 12/11, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of 1 [2][3] - The 03 - 06 spread was -30 on 11/11, -41 on 12/5, -42 on 12/9, -42 on 12/10, -39 on 12/11, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of 2 [2][3] 3.2 Futures Market - The BU main contract (02) was 3050 on 11/11, 2948 on 12/5, 2943 on 12/9, 2940 on 12/10, 2960 on 12/11, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 12 [2][3] - The trading volume was 314162 on 11/11, 253337 on 12/5, 280627 on 12/9, 226203 on 12/10, 394179 on 12/11, with a daily change of 167976 and a weekly change of 140842 [2][3] - The open interest was 339671 on 11/11, 428146 on 12/5, 426690 on 12/9, 430400 on 12/10, 427106 on 12/11, with a daily change of -3294 and a weekly change of -1040 [2][3] 3.3 Spot Market - Brent crude oil was 65.2 on 11/11, 63.3 on 12/5, 62.5 on 12/9, 61.9 on 12/10, 62.2 on 12/11, with a daily change of 0.3 and a weekly change of -1.1 [2][3] - Jingbo's price was 3000 on 11/11, 2940 on 12/5, 2940 on 12/9, 2950 on 12/10, 2960 on 12/11, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of 20 [2][3] - The price in Shandong (non-Jingbo) was 2940 on 11/11, 2910 on 12/5, 2820 on 12/9, 2820 on 12/10, 2820 on 12/11, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -90 [2][3] - The price in Zhenjiang warehouse was 3150 on 11/11, 3040 on 12/5, 3040 on 12/9, 3040 on 12/10, 2980 on 12/11, with a daily change of -60 and a weekly change of -60 [2][3] - The price in Foshan warehouse was 3130 on 11/11, 2930 on 12/5, 2960 on 12/9, 2960 on 12/10, 2960 on 12/11, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 30 [2][3] 3.4 Profit - The asphalt Ma瑞 profit was 64 on 11/11, 154 on 12/5, 192 on 12/9, 358 on 12/10, 346 on 12/11, with a daily change of -12 and a weekly change of 192 [2][3]
沥青早报-20251208
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 01:03
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Release Date: December 8, 2025 [5] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [5] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - No core viewpoints information provided Group 4: Data Summary Basis and Spread - Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) on 12/5 was 42, with a daily change of -6 [3] - East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) on 12/5 was 92, with a daily change of 4 [3] - South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) on 12/5 was -18, with a daily change of -16 [3] - 12 - 01 spread on 12/5 was -26, with a daily change of -7 [3] - 12 - 03 spread on 12/5 was -51, with a daily change of -4 [3] - 01 - 02 spread on 12/5 was -11, with a daily change of 0 [3] Futures - BU main contract (01) on 12/5 was 2948, with a daily change of -4 [3] - Trading volume on 12/5 was 253,337, with a daily change of -36,820 (-5%) [3] - Open interest on 12/5 was 428,146, with a daily change of -1,202 [3] - Lot size remained 4,690 [3] Spot - Brent crude on 12/5 was 63.3, with a daily change of 0.6 [3] - Jingbo price on 12/5 was 2940, with a daily change of -10 [3] - Hongrun price on 12/5 was 2910, with a daily change of -10 [3] - Zhenjiang Warehouse price on 12/5 was 3040, with no daily change [3] - Foshan Warehouse price on 12/5 was 2930, with a daily change of -20 [3] Profit - Asphalt - Ma Rui profit on 12/5 was 107, with a daily change of -36 [3] - Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit on 12/5 was 719, with a daily change of -29 [3]
工业硅:偏弱运行为主,多晶硅:关注消息面发酵情况
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 02:10
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Mainly weak operation [1] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the fermentation of news [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost data. It also reports on a key project milestone in the polysilicon industry. The trend intensity for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2601 (industrial silicon) closed at 8,920 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan from T - 1, 100 yuan from T - 5, and 220 yuan from T - 22. PS2601 (polysilicon) closed at 57,705 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan from T - 1 and 4,390 yuan from T - 5 [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +580 yuan/ton, and polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was - 5430 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,900 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 10,000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 52,350 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profit in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,349.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 3,596 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit was 7.7 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 550,000 tons, enterprise inventory was 180,000 tons, and industry inventory was 730,000 tons. Polysilicon factory inventory was 281,000 tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: Silicon ore prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan were 320 yuan/ton and 290 yuan/ton respectively. Wash - cleaned coal prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia were 1,475 yuan/ton and 1,200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The 400,000 - volt substation of the Oman United Solar Polysilicon Project, EPC - contracted by China Energy Construction Shanxi Electric Power Engineering Company, was successfully connected to the grid, marking a breakthrough in the project's construction [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].
瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20251201
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 10:23
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - EB2601 fell and then rebounded, closing at 6,549 yuan/ton. Last week, the impact of the shutdown of Sinochem Quanzhou's 450,000 - ton plant expanded, and Tianjin Bohua's 450,000 - ton plant had a short - term shutdown. Styrene production and capacity utilization decreased month - on - month. Downstream operating rates varied, and the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS decreased slightly. Factory and port inventory changes were inconsistent, and the de - stocking pace slowed down. Non - integrated process losses decreased, and integrated process profitability deepened. Recently, Dongming's 200,000 - ton new plant was put into operation, and Lianyungang Petrochemical's 600,000 - ton plant will restart this week. Domestic styrene supply is expected to recover. In December, the impact of styrene maintenance will weaken marginally, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise. In the short term, the downstream demand load will be slightly adjusted, with little overall change. The tight balance between supply and demand of styrene may gradually turn into a loose balance, and price support will weaken. In terms of cost, the actual supply of international oil prices continues to be stronger than demand. There are still uncertainties in the geopolitical situations of Russia - Ukraine and the US - Venezuela. The market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December to increase, and there is a long - short game in international oil prices. In the short term, EB2601 is expected to show a volatile trend, and the daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 6,460 and the resistance around 6,620 [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active contract for styrene was 6,549 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan; the futures trading volume was 270,098, a decrease of 20,251; the long - position volume of the top 20 holders was 316,499 hands, a decrease of 21,219 hands; the 1 - month contract closing price was 6,549 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan; the futures open interest was 308,914 hands, a decrease of 6,808 hands; the net long - position volume of the top 20 holders was - 46,463 hands, an increase of 4,741 hands; the short - position volume of the top 20 holders was 362,962 hands, a decrease of 25,960 hands; the total number of warehouse receipts was 0 hands, a decrease of 100 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6,656 yuan/ton, unchanged; the FOB Korea intermediate price was 811 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 821 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars; the mainstream price in the Northeast region was 6,375 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the South China region was 6,790 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan; the mainstream price in the North China region was 6,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the East China region was 6,605 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 741 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 721 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price of ethylene was 641.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar; the FD US Gulf price of ethylene was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 658 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.33 US dollars; the spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf's FOB was 273 cents/gallon, unchanged; the spot price of pure benzene in Rotterdam's FOB was 714 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars; the market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5,355 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan; the market price of pure benzene in the North China market was 5,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.66 percentage points; the national styrene inventory was 190,430 tons, an increase of 2,334 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 164,200 tons, an increase of 15,900 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 94,200 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 54.75%, a decrease of 1.52 percentage points; the operating rate of ABS was 71.2%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points; the operating rate of PS was 57.6%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points; the operating rate of UPR was 37%, unchanged; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 75.99%, an increase of 1.23 percentage points [2] Industry News - From November 21st to 27th, the total output of Chinese styrene plants was 334,700 tons, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous period; the plant capacity utilization rate was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.66 percentage points month - on - month. From November 21st to 28th, the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS of styrene was 268,800 tons, a decrease of 0.3% month - on - month. As of November 27th, the styrene plant inventory was 190,400 tons, an increase of 1.24% from the previous week. As of December 1st, the styrene inventory in the East China port was 160,600 tons, a decrease of 2.19% from the previous week; the inventory in the South China port was 9,500 tons, a decrease of 39.1% from the previous week. As of November 26th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was - 159 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 208.76 yuan/ton [2]
《能源化工》日报-20251126
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:41
Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Methanol - Short - term outlook is oscillating and slightly bullish. Inner - land marginal devices are in the red, and attention should be paid to their operation. Iranian devices are starting to limit gas and stop production, but the current shipment volume is still high [1][2]. Polyolefin - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and slight inventory depletion. PE shows supply increasing and demand decreasing, with inventory slightly accumulating under the pressure of new production capacity. The 01 contract is under relatively high pressure [6]. Natural Rubber - The market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. The inventory is in a seasonal accumulation cycle, and terminal demand support is insufficient. The price trend depends on the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [7]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Affected by news, the geopolitical premium is declining, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. Short - term attention should be paid to the support level of Brent at $60 per barrel and the results of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term drive is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be tight in November - December, but loose from December to the first quarter. The absolute price is relatively firm in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to oscillate at a low level. - Short - fiber: The absolute price drive is limited, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, and the processing fee is expected to decline [11]. Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: Supply is generally loose, demand support is limited, and the price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices in the short term. - Styrene: Although the short - term supply - demand is expected to improve, the overall drive is limited, and the 01 contract should be treated with oscillation [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda Ash: The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish. Although there is short - term inventory depletion, the medium - term demand is expected to remain rigid. - Glass: There is short - term rigid demand support, but there are concerns about the long - term demand, and the price may be under pressure [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. - PVC: The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is difficult to be optimistic, continuing the weak trend [15]. Summary by Directory Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closed down, while the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 8.70%. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased, with port inventory down 4.16% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased slightly, while some downstream operating rates such as formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid increased [2]. Polyolefin - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all closed down, and the regional spreads and basis had different degrees of changes. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased to varying degrees. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates increased slightly [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: Spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased, and the basis and non - standard price spread changed. - **Fundamentals**: Production in major producing countries decreased, tire production and exports decreased, and inventory increased. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased [7]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also decreased. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spread**: The cracking spreads of various refined oils decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash Flow**: The prices of some polyester products decreased, and the cash flow and processing fees had different degrees of changes. - **PX - related Price and Spread**: PX prices and spreads changed, and the supply was relatively high while the demand was weak. - **PTA - related Price and Spread**: PTA prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to change in different periods. - **MEG - related Price and Spread**: MEG prices and spreads changed, and the supply - demand was expected to be in a low - level oscillation. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip Price and Spread**: Short - fiber prices and spreads changed, and bottle - chip supply - demand was loose [11]. Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and related raw materials changed, and the spreads and import profits also changed. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: Styrene prices and spreads changed, and the cash flow improved. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories increased, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Price and Spread**: Glass prices in different regions and futures prices had different degrees of changes. - **Soda Ash Price and Spread**: Soda ash prices in different regions and futures prices changed, and the inventory decreased. - **Production and Inventory**: Soda ash production decreased, and glass and soda ash inventories changed. - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas had different degrees of change [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda and their spreads changed. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rates of PVC and caustic soda supply - side and demand - side industries changed, and the inventory changed [15].
【钢铁】取向硅钢现货价格年内跌幅达到23%——金属周期品高频数据周报(2025.11.10-11.16)(王招华/戴默)
光大证券研究· 2025-11-18 23:05
Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for October 2025 is 52.41, with a month-on-month increase of 10.15% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in October 2025 is -2.0 percentage points, a month-on-month decrease of 0.80 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is $4082 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - From January to October, the cumulative year-on-year new construction area of national real estate is -19.80% [5] - Weekly price changes include rebar at -0.94% and cement price index at -0.76%, while rubber increased by 3.14% [5] - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 0.99 percentage points, while cement and asphalt decreased by 11.30 percentage points and increased by 1.0 percentage points, respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - From January to October, the cumulative year-on-year completion area of commercial housing is -16.90% [6] - The weekly operating rate for flat glass is 75%, with glass and titanium dioxide prices remaining unchanged [6] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high [7] - Weekly price changes for major bulk commodities include cold-rolled steel at -1.00%, copper at +1.11%, and aluminum at +1.44% [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 73.68%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.01 percentage points [7] Subcategories - The spot price of oriented silicon steel has decreased by 23% year-to-date [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a comprehensive gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down 25.47% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21,890 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 1.44% and a calculated profit of 4,622 yuan/ton (excluding tax) [8] Price Comparison - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.01 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 110 yuan/ton [10] - The price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel in Shanghai is 470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [10] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 is 45.90%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.9 percentage points [11] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,094.03 points, with a month-on-month increase of 3.39% [11] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is 76.00%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.30 percentage points [11] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 1.08%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being real estate at +2.70% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 44.37% and 91.89%, respectively [12] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 0.56, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [12]
瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20251117
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 10:39
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the PVC market has significant domestic supply - demand contradictions. With high inventory pressure likely to persist, short - term V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 4500 - 4630 yuan/ton. The decrease in raw material prices has led to a decline in production costs, but due to weak spot prices, losses in both calcium carbide and ethylene methods have deepened. As the temperature drops, downstream demand in infrastructure and real estate is expected to weaken seasonally, and overseas demand remains uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4601 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; trading volume was 800,764 lots, a decrease of 175,156 lots; open interest was 1,355,541 lots, an increase of 7,172 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 219,361 lots, an increase of 8,824 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 4620 yuan/ton, unchanged; the calcium carbide - based PVC price was 4548.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.62 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 4692.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the calcium carbide - based PVC price was 4606.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.38 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2681.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.33 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it was 2494 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.79%, a decrease of 0.42%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.25%, a decrease of 6.44%. The total social inventory of PVC was 532,300 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 416.993 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 9.49%, a decrease of 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.12%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.06%, an increase of 0.13%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.06%, an increase of 0.14% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 8th to 14th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24% compared to the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 0.06% to 49.54%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 40.6%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.65% to 36.96% [3]. - As of November 13th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 1.27% to 1.0283 million tons compared to the previous week. The average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to 5152 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5239 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 823 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 495 yuan/ton [3].
沥青早报-20251113
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 00:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the daily and weekly changes in various indicators of the asphalt market, including basis, spreads, trading volume, open interest, prices of different grades, and refinery profits, along with the price of Brent crude oil [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators Basis and Spreads - **Basis**: On November 12, the Shandong basis (+80)(Hongrun) was -2983, the East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) was -3063, and the South China basis (Foshan warehouse) was -3063, all with a daily change of -13 [3]. - **Spreads**: The 12 - 01 spread was 0 with a daily change of -1; the 12 - 03 spread was -47 with a daily change of -8; the 01 - 02 spread was -19 with a daily change of -5 [3]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the BU main contract (01) on November 12 was 237,856, a decrease of 76,306 (-5%) compared to the previous day [3]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest on November 12 was 345,731, an increase of 6,060 (8%) compared to the previous day [3]. Prices - **BU Main Contract (01)**: The price on November 12 was 3063, an increase of 13 compared to the previous day [3]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: The price on November 12 was 65.2, an increase of 1.1 compared to the previous day [3]. - **Asphalt Prices**: On November 10, the prices of Jingbo, Hongrun, Zhenjiang warehouse, and Foshan warehouse were 2990, 2950, 3170, and 3230 respectively [3]. Profits - **Asphalt Ma Rui Profit**: On November 12, it was 34, a decrease of 34 compared to the previous day [3]. - **Ma Rui - type Refinery Comprehensive Profit**: On November 12, it was -796, a decrease of 40 compared to the previous day [3].
沥青早报-20251112
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 00:41
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No information provided Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) changed from 172 on 10/10 to -2970 on 11/11, with a daily change of -2964 [3]. - The East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) changed from 72 on 10/10 to -3050 on 11/11, with a daily change of -3184 [3]. - The South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) changed from 62 on 10/10 to -3050 on 11/11, with a daily change of -3244 [3]. - The 12 - 01 spread changed from 28 on 10/10 to 1 on 11/11, with a daily change of 3 [3]. - The 12 - 03 spread changed from 6 on 10/10 to -39 on 11/11, with a daily change of 7 [3]. - The 01 - 02 spread changed from -4 on 10/10 to -14 on 11/11, with a daily change of 3 [3]. 2. BU Main Contract - The BU main contract (01) price changed from 3328 on 10/10 to 3050 on 11/11, with a daily change of 14 [3]. - The trading volume changed from 323321 on 10/10 to 314162 on 11/11, with a daily change of -8556 [3]. - The open interest changed from 322594 on 10/10 to 339671 on 11/11, with a daily change of -11390 [3]. - The warehouse receipts remained at 4690 from 11/5 to 11/11 [3]. 3. Spot Market - Brent crude oil price changed from 62.7 on 10/10 to 64.1 on 11/11, with a daily change of 0.4 [3]. - Jingbo's spot price changed from 3540 on 10/10 to 0 on 11/11, with a daily change of -2990 [3]. - Hongrun's spot price changed from 3420 on 10/10 to 0 on 11/11, with a daily change of -2950 [3]. - Zhenjiang Warehouse's spot price changed from 3400 on 10/10 to 0 on 11/11, with a daily change of -3170 [3]. - Foshan Warehouse's spot price changed from 3390 on 10/10 to 0 on 11/11, with a daily change of -3230 [3]. 4. Profit - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit changed from 492 on 10/10 to 68 on 11/11, with a daily change of -28 [3]. - The comprehensive profit of Ma Rui - type refineries changed from 910 on 10/10 to -757 on 11/11, with a daily change of -1450 [3].