智通财经APP获悉，上周美国初请失业金人数升至6月以来的最高水平，且续请失业金人数也在攀升， 进一步表明美国劳动力市场正在放缓。美国劳工部周四公布，截至8月16日当周初请失业金人数增加1.1 万人，至23.5万人，高于市场此前预期的22.5人。截至8月9日当周续请失业金人数升至197万人，为2021 年11月以来的最高水平。 美国截至8月16日当周初请失业金人数四周均值达到22.63万人，为一个月来的最高值。 初请失业金人数持续上升可能会加剧人们对劳动力市场的担忧，因为最近的美国就业报告显示，就业市 场招聘低迷，失业率上升。而续请失业金人数上升表明，失业的美国人越来越难以找到新的工作。这一 趋势与失业率从7月份的4.2%升至8月份的4.3%的情况相符。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的保护主义贸易政策对企业造成打击。美国平均进口关税提高至一个世纪以来 的最高水平。美国政府8月初报告称，过去三个月，就业岗位平均每月增加3.5万个。第二季度美国国内 需求增速为2022年第四季度以来最慢的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicate that policymakers are more concerned about high inflation risks than the slowdown in the labor market, leading to a slight increase in the dollar [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes reveal that "most participants believe the risks of inflation rising are greater than the risks of a slowdown in the labor market" [1] - The meeting occurred prior to the release of July's non-farm payroll data, which underperformed expectations [1] - Analysts from Danske Bank suggest that the Fed's minutes may be "somewhat outdated," resulting in a limited market reaction [1] Group 2: Market Focus - Current market attention is shifting towards Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday [1]

唐纳德.特朗普总统在社交媒体上再次批评美联储维持利率稳定的决定。特朗普还表示，他正在考虑就 美联储总部大楼的翻修项目对这位美联储主席提起诉讼。该项目的成本超支已引发外界关注。 从市场定价来看，全球利率概率模型显示投资者已充分计入9月降息预期，并预计年末将迎来第二次降 息。美国劳工部最新经济数据为这一预期提供支撑：7月核心消费者物价指数(CPI)环比上涨0.3%，与市 场预测值完全吻合，其中受关税影响的相关商品价格涨幅保持温和，未显现显著通胀压力。与此同时， 劳动力市场呈现放缓迹象，修正后的就业数据显示，过去三个月平均新增非农岗位数为疫情以来最低水 平。 值得注意的是，在CPI数据发布后，部分市场参与者开始押注更激进的政策调整，9月降息50个基点的 预期有所升温。 野村证券经济学家在最新研报中指出，美联储或将在9月货币政策会议上启动降息周期，首次下调幅度 为25个基点，随后于12月和次年3月各实施一次同等幅度降息。 尽管当前市场分析师对美联储政策路径的预期中值显示，未来三个月存在25个基点的降息空间，但机构 间对具体操作时点的判断仍存分歧，野村等部分投行认为实际政策调整可能延后至今年末。 美国财政部长斯科特.贝 ...

Core Viewpoint - The San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that the Federal Reserve may need to lower interest rates soon due to a slowing labor market and the assessment that tariffs pose only a short-term threat to inflation [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Conditions - Inflation has been gradually decreasing in the absence of tariffs, and with the economic slowdown and restrictive monetary policy, inflation is expected to continue its downward trend [1] - Although tariffs may temporarily raise inflation, their long-term impact is unlikely to be significant [1] Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, and further slowdown in this area is concerning [1] - A decline in the labor market can happen quickly and severely, indicating potential risks for the economy [1] Group 3: Policy Adjustments - The current economic indicators suggest that the Federal Reserve may need to adjust its policies in the coming months [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the slowdown in the labor market is not surprising, as indicated by both labor department data and private sector data telling a consistent story [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job growth has sharply cooled over the past three months, indicating a slowdown in the labor market amid economic uncertainty [1] Employment Data Summary - In July, non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, while the previous two months' job gains were revised down by nearly 260,000 [1] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2% [1] Labor Market Conditions - The data suggests that the labor market is not only slowing down but also that it is becoming more difficult for unemployed Americans to find jobs [1] - Wage growth has essentially stagnated, adding further risk to already slowing consumer and business spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment report indicates a surprising decline in U.S. private sector jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data - In June, U.S. private sector employment decreased by 33,000 jobs, the first decline in over two years, with the previous month's increase revised down to only 29,000 [3][4]. - The service sector saw a significant job loss of 66,000 positions, particularly in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education [6][9]. - Manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors experienced job growth, adding a total of 32,000 positions, which partially offset the overall decline [9]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Employers are increasingly cautious due to the impact of trade policies and are focused on aligning workforce numbers with the slowing economic activity [6]. - The average employment growth over the past three months has slowed to 18,700 jobs in May, the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic [9]. - The proportion of consumers who believe job opportunities are plentiful has dropped to the lowest level in over four years [9]. Group 3: Wage Growth and Future Expectations - Wage growth is showing signs of slowing, with salaries for job switchers increasing by 6.8% year-over-year, while those remaining in their positions saw a 4.4% increase [9]. - The upcoming government non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of England's Governor Bailey has indicated signs of economic and labor market slowdown in the UK [1] Group 2 - The economic indicators suggest a potential deceleration in growth, which may impact future monetary policy decisions [1] - Labor market conditions are showing signs of weakening, which could lead to changes in employment rates and wage growth [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's willingness to cut interest rates is becoming increasingly clear, influenced by several key factors [1] - The Fed's policy stance is subtly shifting, with multiple officials signaling a potential rate cut, particularly in September [1] - Trade policy uncertainty has significantly decreased, with the impact of tariffs on the economy being less than previously expected, supporting inflation stability [1] - The labor market is showing signs of a comprehensive slowdown, with rising unemployment claims and a declining employment-population ratio, reinforcing expectations for a policy shift [1] - The market is beginning to price in the potential impact of leadership changes at the Fed, reflected in unusual fluctuations in long-term interest rates [1] Group 2 - Current market expectations suggest a cumulative rate cut of 63 basis points by year-end, with a total adjustment of 130 basis points for terminal rates [2] - The financial conditions index (FCI) has eased by 140 basis points since April, providing approximately 1.4 percentage points of additional support for economic growth [2] - A "loose cycle" is forming between the stock and foreign exchange markets, with significant implications for the balance of financial conditions [2] - The impact of preemptive fiscal stimulus measures is expected to last until 2026, contributing an estimated 0.9 percentage points to GDP [2] Group 3 - While short-term monetary policy may support economic growth, long-term risks of macroeconomic imbalance may increase [3] - The trading team suggests a phased strategy for investors, capitalizing on short-term opportunities while being cautious of yield rebound risks later in the year [3] - Key uncertainties include geopolitical developments in the Middle East, potential market overreactions to Fed leadership changes, and risks associated with the monetization of fiscal deficits [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of England's Governor Bailey believes there are signs of a slowdown in the labor market [1]