Group 1 - The recruitment plans of U.S. companies fell to a historical low in August, with only 1,494 new jobs announced, marking the lowest level for August since records began in 2009 [1][2] - Layoff announcements surged to nearly 85,980, the highest for August since 2020, indicating significant pressure on the labor market [1][2] - The data suggests a cooling trend in the labor market, with expectations that the upcoming government employment report will confirm the slowdown in hiring activity [1][2] Group 2 - Recruitment plans are primarily concentrated in the aerospace, defense, industrial goods, and retail sectors, indicating that most industries are delaying or reducing hiring [2] - The layoff figures, when excluding pandemic effects, represent the highest for any August since the 2008 recession, highlighting the severity of current labor market pressures [2] - The report supports the assessment that the labor market is slowing down, with a notable decline in recruitment activities observed in recent months [2]

Group 1 - The latest data from the U.S. Labor Department shows that job vacancies in July fell to 7.18 million, the lowest in nearly 10 months, and below economists' expectations of 7.38 million, indicating a cautious hiring attitude among businesses and a weakening labor demand amid increasing policy uncertainty [1] - The healthcare, retail trade, and leisure and hospitality sectors are the main areas where job vacancies have decreased, with healthcare vacancies reaching their lowest level since 2021, despite being a key driver of employment growth this year [1] - Neil Dutta from Renaissance Macro Research noted that the decline in job vacancies is primarily concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, as well as state and local government sectors, which typically do not fluctuate with economic cycles, suggesting that continued weakness in these "non-cyclical" sectors could significantly pressure overall employment growth [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller reiterated his long-standing position advocating for a rate cut at the next meeting, emphasizing the need to act before labor market deterioration occurs, as employment conditions can worsen rapidly [2] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expressed a similar view, suggesting that the current policy is somewhat tight and that a 25 basis point rate cut may be appropriate in the remaining months of the year due to the slowdown in the labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a complex situation as labor market indicators show weakness, while concerns about high inflation persist, exacerbated by tariff policies from the previous administration [3]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 24.58 points (-0.05%) at 45271.23, the Nasdaq up 218.10 points (+1.02%) at 21497.73, and the S&P 500 up 32.72 points (+0.51%) at 6448.26 [1][2] - Technology stocks saw a broad rally, contributing to the rebounds in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices, while energy and bank stocks underperformed due to ongoing concerns about economic slowdown and rising bond yields [2] Company Highlights - Alphabet, Google's parent company, reached a historic high after a court ruling that prevented its breakup, boosting market optimism regarding tech giants' ability to withstand regulatory threats [1][9] - American Bitcoin made its debut on Nasdaq through a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining, with its stock price initially soaring over 100% before closing up 16.5% [3] Economic Indicators - Bank of America reported a near-record buying spree in small-cap stocks following Fed Chair Powell's comments on interest rate cuts, with clients purchasing $1.5 billion worth of small-cap stocks and ETFs, marking the second-largest weekly purchase since 2008 [2] - The July JOLTS report indicated a decline in job openings by 176,000 to 7.181 million, with hiring increasing by 41,000 to 5.308 million, reflecting a softening labor market [6] - The upcoming August employment report is anticipated to show a non-farm payroll increase of 75,000, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3% [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Despite an increase in initial jobless claims indicating a slowdown in the labor market, a robust manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has led traders to reduce bets on interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of a rate cut in September now around 65%, down from over 90% a week ago [1] Group 1: Labor Market and Interest Rates - The increase in initial jobless claims suggests a cooling labor market [1] - Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for any hints regarding a potential rate cut in September [1] - Several policymakers, including Cleveland Fed President Mester and Atlanta Fed President Bostic, have expressed a cautious stance, emphasizing the need to rely on data [1] Group 2: Trade and Regulatory Developments - The U.S. and EU finalized a framework agreement last Thursday, building on a deal reached the previous month [1] - The U.S. Department of Justice has indicated a potential investigation into Federal Reserve Governor Cook, with a senior official urging Powell to remove her from the Fed's board [1] - Trump's housing finance chief, Pulte, has called for an investigation into Cook's alleged mortgage agreement reached in 2021 [1]

Core Insights - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to its highest level since June, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [1] - Continuing claims also increased, suggesting that unemployed individuals are finding it increasingly difficult to secure new jobs [1] Labor Market Trends - Initial jobless claims increased by 11,000 to 235,000, surpassing market expectations of 225,000 [1] - Continuing claims rose to 1.97 million, the highest level since November 2021 [1] - The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims reached 226,300, the highest in a month [1] Employment and Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate rose from 4.2% in July to 4.3% in August, aligning with the trends in jobless claims [1] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months was reported at 35,000, the slowest since the fourth quarter of 2022 [1] - Domestic demand growth in the U.S. for the second quarter was the slowest since Q4 2022 [1] Trade Policy Impact - President Trump's protectionist trade policies have negatively impacted businesses, with average import tariffs reaching the highest level in a century [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicate that policymakers are more concerned about high inflation risks than the slowdown in the labor market, leading to a slight increase in the dollar [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes reveal that "most participants believe the risks of inflation rising are greater than the risks of a slowdown in the labor market" [1] - The meeting occurred prior to the release of July's non-farm payroll data, which underperformed expectations [1] - Analysts from Danske Bank suggest that the Fed's minutes may be "somewhat outdated," resulting in a limited market reaction [1] Group 2: Market Focus - Current market attention is shifting towards Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday [1]

唐纳德.特朗普总统在社交媒体上再次批评美联储维持利率稳定的决定。特朗普还表示，他正在考虑就 美联储总部大楼的翻修项目对这位美联储主席提起诉讼。该项目的成本超支已引发外界关注。 从市场定价来看，全球利率概率模型显示投资者已充分计入9月降息预期，并预计年末将迎来第二次降 息。美国劳工部最新经济数据为这一预期提供支撑：7月核心消费者物价指数(CPI)环比上涨0.3%，与市 场预测值完全吻合，其中受关税影响的相关商品价格涨幅保持温和，未显现显著通胀压力。与此同时， 劳动力市场呈现放缓迹象，修正后的就业数据显示，过去三个月平均新增非农岗位数为疫情以来最低水 平。 值得注意的是，在CPI数据发布后，部分市场参与者开始押注更激进的政策调整，9月降息50个基点的 预期有所升温。 野村证券经济学家在最新研报中指出，美联储或将在9月货币政策会议上启动降息周期，首次下调幅度 为25个基点，随后于12月和次年3月各实施一次同等幅度降息。 尽管当前市场分析师对美联储政策路径的预期中值显示，未来三个月存在25个基点的降息空间，但机构 间对具体操作时点的判断仍存分歧，野村等部分投行认为实际政策调整可能延后至今年末。 美国财政部长斯科特.贝 ...

Core Viewpoint - The San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that the Federal Reserve may need to lower interest rates soon due to a slowing labor market and the assessment that tariffs pose only a short-term threat to inflation [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Conditions - Inflation has been gradually decreasing in the absence of tariffs, and with the economic slowdown and restrictive monetary policy, inflation is expected to continue its downward trend [1] - Although tariffs may temporarily raise inflation, their long-term impact is unlikely to be significant [1] Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, and further slowdown in this area is concerning [1] - A decline in the labor market can happen quickly and severely, indicating potential risks for the economy [1] Group 3: Policy Adjustments - The current economic indicators suggest that the Federal Reserve may need to adjust its policies in the coming months [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the slowdown in the labor market is not surprising, as indicated by both labor department data and private sector data telling a consistent story [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job growth has sharply cooled over the past three months, indicating a slowdown in the labor market amid economic uncertainty [1] Employment Data Summary - In July, non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, while the previous two months' job gains were revised down by nearly 260,000 [1] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2% [1] Labor Market Conditions - The data suggests that the labor market is not only slowing down but also that it is becoming more difficult for unemployed Americans to find jobs [1] - Wage growth has essentially stagnated, adding further risk to already slowing consumer and business spending [1]