Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job growth has sharply cooled over the past three months, indicating a slowdown in the labor market amid economic uncertainty [1] Employment Data Summary - In July, non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, while the previous two months' job gains were revised down by nearly 260,000 [1] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2% [1] Labor Market Conditions - The data suggests that the labor market is not only slowing down but also that it is becoming more difficult for unemployed Americans to find jobs [1] - Wage growth has essentially stagnated, adding further risk to already slowing consumer and business spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment report indicates a surprising decline in U.S. private sector jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data - In June, U.S. private sector employment decreased by 33,000 jobs, the first decline in over two years, with the previous month's increase revised down to only 29,000 [3][4]. - The service sector saw a significant job loss of 66,000 positions, particularly in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education [6][9]. - Manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors experienced job growth, adding a total of 32,000 positions, which partially offset the overall decline [9]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Employers are increasingly cautious due to the impact of trade policies and are focused on aligning workforce numbers with the slowing economic activity [6]. - The average employment growth over the past three months has slowed to 18,700 jobs in May, the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic [9]. - The proportion of consumers who believe job opportunities are plentiful has dropped to the lowest level in over four years [9]. Group 3: Wage Growth and Future Expectations - Wage growth is showing signs of slowing, with salaries for job switchers increasing by 6.8% year-over-year, while those remaining in their positions saw a 4.4% increase [9]. - The upcoming government non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of England's Governor Bailey has indicated signs of economic and labor market slowdown in the UK [1] Group 2 - The economic indicators suggest a potential deceleration in growth, which may impact future monetary policy decisions [1] - Labor market conditions are showing signs of weakening, which could lead to changes in employment rates and wage growth [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's willingness to cut interest rates is becoming increasingly clear, influenced by several key factors [1] - The Fed's policy stance is subtly shifting, with multiple officials signaling a potential rate cut, particularly in September [1] - Trade policy uncertainty has significantly decreased, with the impact of tariffs on the economy being less than previously expected, supporting inflation stability [1] - The labor market is showing signs of a comprehensive slowdown, with rising unemployment claims and a declining employment-population ratio, reinforcing expectations for a policy shift [1] - The market is beginning to price in the potential impact of leadership changes at the Fed, reflected in unusual fluctuations in long-term interest rates [1] Group 2 - Current market expectations suggest a cumulative rate cut of 63 basis points by year-end, with a total adjustment of 130 basis points for terminal rates [2] - The financial conditions index (FCI) has eased by 140 basis points since April, providing approximately 1.4 percentage points of additional support for economic growth [2] - A "loose cycle" is forming between the stock and foreign exchange markets, with significant implications for the balance of financial conditions [2] - The impact of preemptive fiscal stimulus measures is expected to last until 2026, contributing an estimated 0.9 percentage points to GDP [2] Group 3 - While short-term monetary policy may support economic growth, long-term risks of macroeconomic imbalance may increase [3] - The trading team suggests a phased strategy for investors, capitalizing on short-term opportunities while being cautious of yield rebound risks later in the year [3] - Key uncertainties include geopolitical developments in the Middle East, potential market overreactions to Fed leadership changes, and risks associated with the monetization of fiscal deficits [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of England's Governor Bailey believes there are signs of a slowdown in the labor market [1]

Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. slightly decreased to 245,000, remaining near an eight-month high, aligning with economists' median forecasts [1][5] - The continuing claims for unemployment benefits also saw a minor decline to 1.95 million, indicating a prolonged duration for unemployed individuals to find new jobs [1][5] - The labor market is showing signs of slowing down, with a consistent increase in continuing claims over the past two months, reflecting reduced hiring and longer unemployment durations [5] Group 2 - Economic indicators suggest a cooling demand across various sectors, with a notable report indicating that new housing starts in May dropped to the lowest level since the pandemic began [5] - The four-week moving average for initial jobless claims rose to 245,500, marking the highest level since August 2023, indicating increased volatility in the data [5] - States like Illinois, California, and Georgia experienced the most significant declines in initial jobless claims, highlighting regional variations in labor market conditions [5]

Core Insights - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. has decreased slightly but remains near the highest level in eight months [1] - For the week ending June 14, initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 to 245,000, while continuing claims also saw a slight decline to 1.95 million [1] - Overall, the increase in unemployment claims over the past two months indicates a gradual slowdown in the labor market [1]

Group 1 - The latest Shanghai gold futures closing price is 794.36 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 1.72% and a trading volume of 294,538 contracts [1] - The Shanghai gold spot price on June 13 is quoted at 794 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 0.36 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for May increased by only 0.1% month-on-month, below the economist forecast of 0.2%, indicating moderate wholesale inflation pressure [1] Group 2 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. remained at 248,000, the highest level in eight months, while continuing claims rose by 54,000 to 1.956 million, the highest since November 2021 [2] - The employment growth rate from April to December 2024 is expected to be significantly lower than indicated by non-farm payroll reports, partly due to reduced labor supply from increased deportation efforts [2] Group 3 - According to Guotou Futures, the PPI annual rate of 2.6% for May meets expectations, while the weekly initial jobless claims at 248,000 are the highest since October 2024, suggesting a favorable outlook for interest rate cuts [3] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating, with reports of Israel taking military action against Iran, which may influence gold market dynamics [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment report for May revealed only 37,000 new jobs added in the private sector, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, indicating a slowdown in the labor market and raising concerns about the economic outlook and Federal Reserve monetary policy [1][2] Economic Indicators - The ADP report is considered a leading indicator for the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which is expected to show 130,000 new jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2% [2] - Following the ADP report, the dollar index dropped approximately 20 basis points, reaching a low of 98.9783, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 0.58% to 4.421%, reflecting increased investor concerns about economic growth [1] Market Reactions - The gold price surged by $26 to a high of $3384.52 per ounce after the ADP report, highlighting a rise in safe-haven demand [1] - Market sentiment is divided, with some traders believing that upcoming unemployment claims and non-farm data will dictate market direction, while institutions focus on long-term trends [2] Future Outlook - If the non-farm payroll data is also disappointing, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut may increase, putting further pressure on the dollar and benefiting safe-haven assets like gold [2] - Conversely, if the non-farm data exceeds expectations, the market may reassess the resilience of the labor market, potentially leading to a rebound in the dollar [2] Technical Analysis - Gold has successfully established a bottom, with the lowest point at around $3344, and is expected to test resistance at $3392 [3][5] - Current trading strategies suggest a focus on buying on dips around $3345-$3350 and selling on rallies near $3385-$3390, with specific stop-loss and target levels outlined [6][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the slowdown in the labor market will guide the direction of monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Briden, emphasizes the importance of labor market conditions in shaping future monetary policy decisions [1]