Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices showing certain resilience and remaining relatively firm. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. - The market focus for soybeans is on Sino - US trade relations and North American planting season weather. The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to experience intensified fluctuations in the short term due to a mix of positive and negative factors [7]. - With an increase in soybean arrivals and high - level operation of oil mills, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and it is likely to operate weakly with a short - selling strategy recommended when prices are high [8]. - The supply of soybean oil is also expected to increase, and it is expected to operate weakly in the short term. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, the main 2507 contract rose by 0.36% to 4168 yuan/ton. The market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and prices are relatively firm. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [6]. - **Soybean No. 2**: The main 2509 contract fell by 0.28% to 3520 yuan/ton. The market is influenced by Sino - US trade relations and weather, and the CBOT soybean futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2509 contract remained flat at 2899 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and it is likely to operate weakly. A short - selling strategy is recommended when prices are high [8]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2509 contract fell by 0.33% to 7754 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and it is expected to operate weakly. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Soybean No. 1 rose, soybean meal remained flat, and soybean oil fell this week [13][19][25]. - **Spread Changes**: The 9 - 1 spreads of soybean meal and soybean oil both decreased [31][36]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipt Changes**: The net position of soybean No. 1 decreased, and its warehouse receipts increased; the net position of soybean meal increased, and its warehouse receipts increased; the net position of soybean oil decreased, and its warehouse receipts increased [43][47][55]. Spot Market - **Price and Basis Changes**: The spot price of domestic soybeans remained flat, and the basis decreased; the spot price of soybean meal fell, and the basis decreased; the spot price of soybean oil declined, and the basis decreased [62][68][72]. - **Imported Soybean Indicators**: The import premium of imported soybeans changed, and the arrival cost of imported soybeans increased [76][80]. 3. Industry Situation Weather - **North American Weather**: The drought situation in the US soybean - producing areas has deepened compared with last week and is worse than the same period last year [84]. - **US Soybean Weather**: In the 6 - 10 - day outlook, the temperature in the main US soybean - producing states is close to normal, and rainfall is lower than normal [88]. Upstream - **Supply - Side Information**: The expected production and inventory of US soybeans in the new year have been adjusted downward; the expected production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans remains unchanged, and their inventories have increased [90][95][100]. - **Sowing and Harvesting Progress**: The US soybean sowing progress is fast, and the Argentine soybean harvesting progress has recovered [107]. - **Export - Related Information**: The US soybean export inspection volume and sales volume have decreased, while Brazil's soybean export is expected to increase [113][119]. Domestic Industry - **Inventory and Operation of Oil Mills**: The soybean inventory of major oil mills, soybean meal inventory, and soybean oil inventory have all increased. The oil mill operating rate is expected to rise [123][127][131][135]. - **Soybean Import and Arrival**: In April, the import volume of soybeans increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume of soybeans in May is expected to increase [141][145]. - **Profit and Substitute Products**: The profit of domestic soybeans has decreased. The price of palm oil has risen, the price of rapeseed oil has fallen, the price of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the oil - meal ratio has declined [149][153][166][173]. - **Transaction Volume**: The spot transaction volume of soybean meal and the terminal transaction volume of soybean oil have both increased [181]. Downstream - **Livestock and Poultry Market**: The prices of live pigs and piglets have fallen, and the breeding profits of live pigs and poultry have declined [186][192]. - **Feed Market**: The monthly output of feed has decreased month - on - month, the inventory of breeding sows has increased, and the inventory of live pigs has increased month - on - month [197][202]. 4. Options Market - From the trend of soybean meal, it is recommended to buy at - the - money put options as it is expected to operate weakly [214]

Report Overview - Report Date: May 14, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The USDA's May report predicted the soybean supply - demand balance for the 25/26 season. The new - season US soybean has a slightly reduced supply and adjusted demand, resulting in a significant reduction in the ending inventory, and the US soybean returns to a relatively balanced supply - demand fundamental. After the report was released, the US soybean rose slightly, but there are still many uncertainties, especially regarding the US - China trade and biodiesel policies. Although the US soybean supply - demand is balanced, the South American soybean, especially Brazilian soybean, has a relatively loose fundamental. With the progress of the negotiation and the US soybean entering the weather - sensitive period, the CBOT soybean is expected to have strong support at the bottom, and its upward potential depends on the weather in the next 2 - 3 months [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Domestic Soybean Meal Futures**: The prices of domestic soybean meal futures contracts such as 2505, 2507, and 2509 all declined. The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 1,354,709, and the open interest increased by 11,418. The trading volume of the 2507 contract was 160,303, and the open interest decreased by 20,090. The trading volume of the 2505 contract was 847, and the open interest decreased by 378 [6]. - **US Soybean Futures**: The US soybean 07 contract was strong, with the main contract at 1065 cents. The USDA's May report showed that the new - season US soybean planting area was about 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%; the harvested area was about 82.7 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%; the yield per unit was estimated at 52.5 bushels, a year - on - year increase of about 3.6%. The estimated production of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.6%. The estimated export volume was 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; the estimated crushing volume was 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The ending inventory was estimated at 295 million bushels, a significant decrease compared to the previous year [6]. 3.2 Industry News - As of the week of May 11, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 48%, higher than the market expectation of 47%, and the emergence rate was 17%. The USDA estimated the US soybean production in the 2025/2026 season to be 4.34 billion bushels, the ending inventory to be 295 million bushels, and the yield per unit to be 52.5 bushels per acre. The production estimates of Argentina and Brazil in the 2024/2025 season remained unchanged [7][9]. 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 05 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][17][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The May USDA supply and demand report is moderately bullish and directly benefits US soybeans. The report's first forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean supply - demand balance shows that production is up, consumption increase exceeds production growth, ending stocks slightly rise, and the stock - to - use ratio drops, indicating a tightening global soybean supply - demand situation. The report also lowers the ending stocks and stock - to - use ratios of US soybeans for both 2024/25 and 2025/26, directly favoring US soybeans [1][54]. - The progress of US trade negotiations, especially the substantial progress in the China - US economic and trade talks and the release of the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks", is conducive to the export demand of US soybeans and directly benefits US soybeans. Continuous attention should be paid to China - US and other US trade negotiations to prevent uncertainties such as negotiation setbacks or stagnation [1][54]. - The domestic soybean meal market is weak and is seeking a phased low. Recently, the domestic soybean meal market has diverged from the US soybean market. On one hand, it has pre - priced the easing of China - US trade frictions; on the other hand, it has been dragged down by the sharp decline in spot prices and pre - priced the pressure of soybean arrivals. Although the marginal negative factors are decreasing and the downside space is limited, the market still needs to find a phased low and stabilize. Future factors to watch include US soybean产区 weather, the US soybean planting area report at the end of June, and China - US economic and trade talks [2][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. May USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Report - **Global Soybean Situation**: The 2025/26 global soybean production is estimated at 426.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.95 million tons (about 1.4%); consumption is estimated at 424.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.76 million tons (about 3.4%); exports are estimated at 188.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56 million tons; imports are estimated at 186.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.66 million tons; ending stocks are estimated at 124.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons; the stock - to - use ratio is about 20.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.54%. For 2024/25, the global soybean production is estimated at 420.87 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons from the April estimate; consumption is estimated at 410.29 million tons, a decrease of 380,000 tons from the April estimate; exports are estimated at 180.87 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 million tons from the April estimate; imports are estimated at 178.16 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 million tons from the April estimate; ending stocks are estimated at 123.18 million tons, an increase of 710,000 tons from the April estimate; the stock - to - use ratio is about 20.84%, an increase of 0.18% from the April estimate [3][4][7]. - **US Soybean Situation**: In 2025/26, US soybean production is estimated at 118.12 million tons, a decrease of 720,000 tons; ending stocks are estimated at 8.03 million tons, a decrease compared to previous estimates; the stock - to - use ratio is 6.68%. In 2024/25, production is estimated at 118.84 million tons (unchanged from the April estimate), ending stocks are estimated at 9.53 million tons, a decrease of 680,000 tons from the April estimate, and the stock - to - use ratio is 7.99% [3][7]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Production Changes**: In 2025/26, Brazil's soybean production is estimated to increase by 6 million tons, China's by 350,000 tons, while the US's decreases by 720,000 tons and Argentina's by 500,000 tons. In 2024/25, the production of the US, Brazil, and Argentina remains unchanged [4]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Consumption Changes**: In 2025/26, consumption in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China all increase. In 2024/25, global consumption is adjusted down by 380,000 tons, mainly due to a 1 - million - ton reduction in China's consumption [4]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Export Changes**: In 2025/26, global soybean exports are estimated to increase by 7.56 million tons. In 2024/25, global exports are adjusted down by 1.25 million tons, with the US increasing by 680,000 tons, Brazil decreasing by 1 million tons, and Argentina decreasing by 300,000 tons [5]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Import Changes**: In 2025/26, global soybean imports are estimated to increase by 8.66 million tons. In 2024/25, global imports are adjusted down by 1.25 million tons, mainly due to a 1 - million - ton reduction in China's imports [7]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Ending Stocks Changes**: In 2025/26, global ending stocks are estimated to increase by 1.15 million tons. In 2024/25, the US's ending stocks decrease by 680,000 tons, Argentina's increase by 100,000 tons, Brazil's increase by 1 million tons, and China's remain unchanged [7]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Stock - to - Use Ratio Changes**: In 2025/26, the global stock - to - use ratio decreases, indicating a tightening supply - demand situation. In 2024/25, the global stock - to - use ratio shows a slight increase, indicating a slightly looser supply - demand situation [7]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Meal Situation**: The May USDA report slightly raises the 2025/26 global soybean meal production and consumption, with consumption growth exceeding production growth and a slight increase in ending stocks, having a slightly bearish impact. The 2025/26 global soybean meal production is estimated at 287.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.52 million tons; consumption is estimated at 283.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.55 million tons; ending stocks are estimated at 18.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.73 million tons. The ending stocks of Argentine soybean meal are slightly lowered, while those of the US, Brazil, India, and China are slightly raised [33]. 2. China - US Economic and Trade Talks - **2024/25 US Soybean Sales Progress**: As of the week ending May 1, 2025, the cumulative sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season are about 47.72 million tons, with a sales progress of about 95%, faster than the same period last year (about 92%). There are about 2.63 million tons of unsold US soybeans, and the remaining sales time is about 4 months, indicating relatively low sales pressure [36]. - **2025/26 US Soybean Sales and Trade Negotiations**: The sales of US soybeans in 2025/26 mainly depend on trade agreements. Key trade negotiation progress includes: the release of the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks", where the US and China have reached multiple positive consensuses, and the US has promised to cancel 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods and modify part of the remaining tariffs; the US and the UK have reached a trade agreement; Pakistan has purchased 345,000 tons of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season; the EU, Japan, and Indonesia are planning to increase their purchases of US soybeans but are still in the negotiation stage [36][37][38]. 3. US Soybean Spring Planting Weather - **Early - May Planting Progress**: As of the week ending May 12, 2025, the US soybean planting progress is 48%, faster than 35% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 37%; the US corn planting progress is 62%, faster than 49% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 56%, mainly due to warm and dry weather in the main production areas [50]. - **Mid - to - Late - May Weather Impact**: According to the May 12 weather forecast, there will be more precipitation in the main US soybean and corn production areas in mid - to - late May, which may slow down the planting progress and have a slightly bullish impact. Since US soybeans and corn are still in the early planting stage, there is still uncertainty about the weather in the later planting and growth stages, and there is a possibility of a "weather market" [50]. 4. Summary - **US Soybean Outlook**: The May USDA supply and demand report and China - US economic and trade talks are bullish for US soybeans. The report's forecast for 2025/26 shows a tightening global soybean supply - demand situation, and the reduction in US soybean ending stocks and stock - to - use ratios directly benefits US soybeans. The progress of trade negotiations, especially the China - US talks, is conducive to US soybean exports [54]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Outlook**: The domestic soybean meal market is weak and is looking for a phased low. It has diverged from the US soybean market, pre - pricing trade friction easing and the pressure of soybean arrivals. Although the marginal negative factors are decreasing, the market still needs to stabilize. Future factors to watch include US soybean产区 weather, the US soybean planting area report at the end of June, and China - US economic and trade talks [2][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, international oilseeds and oils showed a downward - oscillating trend, with domestic protein meal markets also under pressure. The short - term market trends of both protein meal and oils will be affected by factors such as international trade negotiations, weather conditions, and supply - demand relationships [6][71]. - In the protein meal market, the short - term outlook for US soybeans remains range - bound, and domestic soybean meal is facing pressure from increasing supply and bearish sentiment among end - users. In the oils market, international oils are affected by factors like geopolitics and production increases, while domestic oils are expected to show range - bound oscillations [134][135]. Summary by Directory 1. Protein Meal Market Analysis 1.1 Market Trends - CBOT soybeans fluctuated within a range this week, with a slightly lower price center. Domestic soybean meal futures showed a low - level oscillation. The 5 - month contract of domestic soybean meal rebounded after a post - holiday catch - up decline, while the far - month contracts were under selling pressure [6]. 1.2 US Soybean Export - As of the week ending May 1, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 29% compared to the previous week and 10% compared to the same period last year. The cumulative export inspection volume for the 2024/25 season reached 43,461,547 tons, accounting for 87.5% of the annual export target [12]. 1.3 US Soybean Planting Progress - As of May 4, 2025, the US soybean planting progress reached 30%, up from 18% the previous week, slightly higher than the five - year average of 23% but 6 percentage points behind the same period in 2024. The planting progress in southern states was relatively fast, while that in the northern plains was slower [26]. 1.4 Global Oilseed Market - StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to 1.684 billion tons, a 0.5% increase from the previous month and a 12.1% increase from the 2023/24 season. Argentina's soybean harvest has been delayed due to heavy rainfall [36][37]. 1.5 Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory - As of the end of the 18th week of 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 102,000 tons, a 5.57% week - on - week increase. The contract volume was 4.562 million tons, a 59.42% week - on - week increase [55]. 2. Oils Market Analysis 2.1 Market Trends - International oils oscillated downward this week, with US soybean oil leading the decline. Malaysian palm oil also showed a similar trend, while Canadian canola was relatively strong. In the domestic market, palm oil was the weakest, and rapeseed oil was the strongest [71]. 2.2 International Oils Information - Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to increase for the second consecutive month in April. Indian palm oil imports in April are estimated to be lower than normal, but may rebound in May. The proposed budget cut of the US EPA has led to concerns about the demand for biofuels [75][76]. 2.3 Domestic Oils Inventory - As of the end of the 18th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 1.9469 million tons, a 1.10% week - on - week increase. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 710,900 tons, a 2.92% week - on - week increase; palm oil inventory was 330,600 tons, a 3.45% week - on - week decrease; rapeseed oil inventory was 905,500 tons, a 1.43% week - on - week increase [91]. 3. Market Outlook 3.1 Technical Analysis - For soybean meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are bearish. For rapeseed meal, short - term and medium - term indicators are bearish, while the long - term indicator is entangled. For soybean oil, all three indicators are entangled. For palm oil, short - term and medium - term indicators are bearish, and the long - term indicator is entangled. For rapeseed oil, the short - term indicator is bullish, and medium - and long - term indicators are entangled [134]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Protein Meal: The US soybean market will remain range - bound in the short term, affected by the USDA report, weather, and trade negotiations. Domestic soybean meal is under pressure from increasing supply. - Oils: International oils are affected by geopolitics and production increases. Domestic palm oil may test the 7800 - level support, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to show range - bound oscillations [135].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of oils remains, and the rebound of futures prices is limited. The supply of soybean meal is gradually improving, and the price is oscillating downward [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal: Supply Gradually Improving, Price Oscillating Downward - **Futures and Spot End**: As of April 25, the spot price in East China reached 3,800 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan/ton weekly. The spot basis strengthened significantly, with the basis in North China soaring from 200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to over 1,000 yuan/ton. The futures prices of M2505 and M2509 did not show strong upward trends due to delivery logic and expected increases in arrivals and operation rates later [7]. - **Supply End**: The April USDA soybean supply - demand report showed that the US soybean yield remained at 50.7 cents/bushel, and the ending stocks were lowered to 375 million bushels. The estimated planting area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 83.5 million acres, with a downward trend in production. In South America, Brazil's harvest is nearly complete, putting pressure on prices, while Argentina's production forecast remains at 49 million tons. In China, the supply - demand situation tightened recently due to oil mills' soybean shortages, but the arrival pressure from May to July is high, and the supply will gradually become loose. After September, domestic soybeans will enter a destocking cycle [7]. - **Demand End**: In 2025, the pig inventory is expected to increase by 4%. The demand for soybean meal in feed is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year. However, the market is bearish on future prices, and the purchasing sentiment is poor. As of April 18, the national soybean inventory of oil mills increased to 4.2591 million tons, while the soybean meal inventory decreased significantly to 125,500 tons [7]. - **Cost End**: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 24/25 season is 1,030 cents/bushel, and that of new - crop Brazil soybeans is 915 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of soybean meal before March 2025 is 2,930 yuan/ton, and the cost during the Brazilian soybean supply season is 2,730 yuan/ton. The import crushing profit is at a high level in the same period of history, ranging from 100 to 200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Summary**: In the short term, the supply - demand tension in some regions remains, and the price decline is limited before the supply pressure arrives. From May to July, as arrivals increase, the price will gradually decline with the accumulation of soybean and soybean meal inventories. The 09 contract is under short - term pressure from arrivals but may be bullish in the long - term due to weather disturbances and tariff - induced increases in import costs [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short term, go short on the M2509 contract when the price is high, paying attention to the resistance around 3,100 - 3,150 yuan/ton. In the long - term, go long on the 09 contract when the price is low, paying attention to the support around 2,900 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Oils: Supply Pressure Remains, Futures Price Rebound Limited - **Futures and Spot End**: As of the week of April 25, the main 09 contract of palm oil rose 244 yuan/ton to 8,376 yuan/ton, the main 09 contract of soybean oil rose 230 yuan/ton to 7,934 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract of rapeseed oil rose 285 yuan/ton to 9,506 yuan/ton. The corresponding spot prices also increased, while the basis of palm oil decreased, and the basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil increased [81][83]. - **Palm Oil**: In April, the production in Malaysia increased. The international soybean - palm oil price spread turned positive, stimulating imports from China and India. The export volume from April 1 - 25 increased. The inventory increase in Malaysia in April may be small. In China, the import volume in April is expected to be less than 100,000 tons, and the consumption is also low, keeping the inventory below 400,000 tons. However, from May, the arrivals will increase, and the price may decline from May to July [81]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the 24/25 season, Brazil's soybean harvest has reached 90%, and the export volume may exceed 100 million tons. Argentina has also started harvesting. However, the potential increase in the US biodiesel blending standard is beneficial for future soybean demand. The expected decrease in the 25/26 US soybean planting area and planting disruptions support the soybean price. In China, although the soybean arrivals have increased, strict customs inspections have led to shortages in some oil mills before early May. The inventory of soybean oil has decreased to 650,000 tons, but it will accumulate again from May to July. In the long - term, the price may first decline and then rise from July to September [81]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed is not affected by US - Canada tariffs, and the demand for crushing and export is strong. The old - crop inventory is decreasing, and there may be drought problems in the 25/26 planting season. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level of 830,000 tons, and the supply pressure in April is large. There are rumors of increased imports of Australian rapeseed, which may slightly ease the future supply shortage. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [81]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short term, the three major oils in China have upward momentum due to various factors, but the supply improvement is expected, and the price rebound is limited. In the long - term, the price of soybean and palm oil may decline in the second quarter and then rise due to concerns about the US new - crop soybean planting area and potential weather speculation [81]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Be cautious about chasing up the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils. Pay attention to the resistance levels of 7,800 - 8,000, 8,500, and 9,600 yuan/ton respectively. Wait for the price to decline in the second quarter before going long. Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be relatively strong [81].