1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the supply has recently returned, and with some major suppliers selling goods, the spot market liquidity is fair. The market supply - demand outlook is weak, and the spot basis is gradually declining. PTA spot prices mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to polyester upstream - downstream device changes and terminal demand [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory increased slightly this week, but it's unlikely to be persistent this month. Due to pre - holiday stocking, polyester factories still have demand for low - price restocking. In the short term, MEG supply - demand remains tight, and the basis has some support during the delivery period. However, with the progress of new device commissioning, the supply - demand will turn loose in the far - month, and the futures price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1.前日回顾 - No relevant content provided 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: PTA futures fluctuated briefly following the cost side yesterday and finally closed slightly lower. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis changed little. September goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4585 - 4670. October goods were traded at a discount of 55 - 60 to the 01 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 77 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4626, and the 01 contract basis is - 40, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased [5]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, pay attention to polyester device changes and terminal demand [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: On Thursday, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated weakly. In the morning, the MEG futures fluctuated narrowly, with traders mainly conducting swap transactions. Near noon, the futures price declined weakly, and the spot basis strengthened moderately. In the afternoon, affected by a cracking anomaly in a South China device, the market sentiment was boosted. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer - market price adjusted widely. In the morning, recent shipments were negotiated around 516 - 519 US dollars/ton, and in the afternoon, the negotiation center回调 to 514 - 515 US dollars/ton. The difference between the inner and outer markets was large, and the buying follow - up was weak [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4362, and the 01 contract basis is 94, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased [7]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, pay attention to port shipment conditions and device changes [7]. 3.3.今日关注 - **Influencing Factors Summary** - **Positive Factors**: The average operating load of polyester devices has further increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start is slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [11]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [10]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points** - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the futures price rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, output, import, export, consumption, inventory, etc. For example, in September 2025, the PTA capacity is 9172, the output is 626, the total supply is 626, the total demand is 624, and the inventory at the end of the period is 337 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, supply, consumption, port inventory, etc. For example, in September 2025, the EG output is 58, the total supply is 234, the total demand is 233, and the supply - demand difference is 2 [13]. - **Price Data**: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and their changes from September 17 to September 18, 2025. For example, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased from 575.5 to 584.5 US dollars/ton, and the CCFEI price index of PTA (domestic) decreased from 4630 to 4590 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory Data**: It shows the inventory situation of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester filaments, etc. from 2021 to 2025, including factory - inventory available days and port inventory [43][45]. - **Operating Rate Data**: It shows the operating rate situation of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and downstream weaving machines from 2020 to 2025 [54][56][58][60]. - **Profit Data**: It shows the profit situation of PTA, MEG, polyester fibers, etc. from 2022 to 2025, including processing fees and production gross margins [62][64][66][68][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent supply has returned, and with some major suppliers selling goods, the spot market liquidity is fair. The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the spot basis is gradually declining. PTA spot prices mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester upstream and downstream equipment and terminal demand [5]. - For MEG, the price center has fluctuated and declined at a high level. The near - term supply - demand remains tight, and the basis during the delivery period still has some support. However, with the advancement of new device production, the supply - demand in the far - month will turn loose, and the disk performance will be under pressure. Future device changes should be monitored [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak. The September goods were negotiated at a discount of 75 - 85 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4590 - 4635. The mid - October goods were traded at 01 - 60. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 80 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4612, and the 01 contract basis is - 76, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.84 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Main positions**: The net short position is decreasing, still showing a bearish signal [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the ethylene glycol price center fluctuated and declined at a high level. The night - session ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, but the buying interest was limited. During the day, the ethylene glycol disk opened flat and then declined. The overall intention of traders to hold goods was weak, and the afternoon spot basis weakened to a premium of about 80 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In US dollars, the external market price of ethylene glycol corrected downward at a high level [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4382, and the 01 contract basis is 110, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a bullish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 37.24 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons compared to the previous period, indicating a bullish signal [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Main positions**: The net short position is increasing, showing a bearish signal [6]. 3.今日关注 - **Likely positive factors**: The average operating load of polyester devices has further increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start is slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [10]. - **Likely negative factors**: The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [9]. - **Main logic and risk points**: In the short term, the commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the disk rebounds [9]. 4.基本面数据 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity has gradually increased. The supply - demand gap has fluctuated, with some months showing a supply surplus and others a supply shortage [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of ethylene glycol have changed, and the supply - demand gap has also fluctuated. The port inventory has also shown corresponding changes [12]. Other Data Analysis - **Price**: Multiple price - related charts of PTA, MEG, and PET bottle - chip are provided, including spot prices, production margins, basis, and inter - month spreads, showing the price trends from 2020 to 2025 [14][17][21][24][28][31][35][38]. - **Inventory**: Inventory - related charts of PTA, MEG, PET bottle - chip, and polyester products are presented, including factory inventory and port inventory, showing the inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [40][42][45][46][49]. - **Operating Rate**: Operating - rate - related charts of polyester upstream and downstream industries are provided, including the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, showing the operating rate trends from 2020 to 2025 [51][55]. - **Profit**: Profit - related charts of PTA, MEG, and polyester products are provided, including production margins of different production methods, showing the profit trends from 2022 to 2025 [60][61][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has increasing supply and demand, with rising total inventory. The fundamentals of steel and raw materials are weakening, but market expectations remain positive, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [3]. - The iron ore price is relatively firm, and it is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term, with prices fluctuating within a smaller range [20]. - The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - The ferroalloy market has high supply pressure, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline. Its price is affected by the volatile coking coal price [46]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt on the cost side [60]. - The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Situation**: This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products both increased, and the total inventory continued to accumulate. The de - stocking pressure on the finished product side is prominent. The fundamentals of raw materials are also weakening [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3195 yuan/ton, down from 3200 yuan/ton the previous day [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore price is relatively firm in the black market. The price rebound space is limited due to the lack of strong demand or policy drivers. It is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term and fluctuate within a smaller range [20]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 770 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: On August 22, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.75 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.09 tons. The 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons, with a weekly increase of 25.93 tons [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Situation**: The short - term speculative sentiment in the market has cooled down, but the macro - sentiment may fluctuate widely. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 120 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by profits, the ferroalloy output is increasing, with high supply pressure. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline, and its price is affected by the coking coal price [46]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [47]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The supply of soda ash remains high, the rigid demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach new highs. The cost has increased slightly, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [60]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1379 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.25% [61]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. The near - end spot is under obvious pressure, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1269 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.36% [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - PTA's fundamentals have weakened month-on-month, but there are no obvious signs of inventory accumulation. It is expected that the spot price of PTA will continue to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. The spot basis is expected to have limited downside space [5]. - For MEG, the supply-demand structure will turn balanced in July, and the support from fundamentals will gradually weaken. However, the market price will still be mainly affected by external and cost factors in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the report 2.每日提示 - **PTA Daily View** - Fundamental: The PTA futures rebounded after a decline yesterday. The spot market had a general negotiation atmosphere, with slightly increased spot offers and a loosened basis. The mainstream suppliers offered forward cargoes. The June cargo was mainly traded at 09+260~270, and the price negotiation range was around 5220~5300. The July negotiation was scarce. The mainstream spot basis today is 09+264 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 5247, and the 09 contract basis is 302, with the futures at a discount, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.15 days, a month-on-month increase of 0.12 days, indicating a bearish signal [5]. - Disk: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - Main Position: The net long position decreased, indicating a bullish signal [5]. - Expectation: Although PTA's fundamentals have weakened month-on-month, there are no obvious signs of inventory accumulation. It is expected that the spot price of PTA will continue to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. The spot basis is expected to have limited downside space [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - Fundamental: On Monday, the ethylene glycol price opened higher and then declined, with fair market negotiations. Affected by the news of the potential restart of Iranian plants, the ethylene glycol futures continued to decline. The afternoon trading was weak [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4570, and the 09 contract basis is 79, with the futures at a discount, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 53.10 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.28 tons, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Disk: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Main Position: The net short position increased, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Expectation: The supply-demand structure will turn balanced in July, and the support from fundamentals will gradually weaken. However, the market price will still be mainly affected by external and cost factors in the short term [6]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the report 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply-Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, output, consumption, and inventory [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply-Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, output, consumption, and inventory [11]. - **Price and Margin Data**: Includes the prices and margins of various products such as naphtha, PTA, PX, MEG, and polyester fibers [12]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers [40]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Shows the operating rates of PTA, PX, MEG, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [51]. - **Profit Analysis**: Shows the profit data of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers [59].

Group 1 - The main PTA futures contract closed at 4978 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest by 86,628 contracts [1] - During the week, PTA futures opened at 4820 yuan/ton, peaked at 5074 yuan/ton, and dipped to a low of 4696 yuan/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 4.01% [1] Group 2 - A 450,000-ton PTA plant in South China is gradually shutting down for maintenance, expected to last around two months, while a 220,000-ton plant in Northeast China is already offline [2] - The overall operating rate of major weaving production bases in China has declined, with the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region's chemical fiber weaving rate and the East China dyeing factory operating rate also showing a high-level retreat [2] - The textile enterprises' order days have slightly rebounded to 9.9 days, down by 0.5 days, while the transaction volume in Light Textile City was 504 million meters, a decrease of 65 million meters [2] Group 3 - According to Ningzheng Futures, the supply side of PTA is expected to increase, while polyester production is showing a slight decline, indicating a weakening supply-demand expectation for PTA [3] - Hualian Futures noted a significant recovery in the supply side due to the commissioning of a 250,000-ton plant and the restart of several major plants, while the demand side for polyester is slightly down [3] - The overall industry inventory remains stable, but there is a potential for accumulation in the future, with strong cost support from crude oil influenced by geopolitical factors [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is expected to cool down after the previous macro - positive factors are digested. The price of PX has adjusted due to the decline in raw material prices. Although the supply of Asian PX is tightening, the demand is also higher than expected, and it will still be in a de - stocking phase in the next few months. PTA prices are expected to be mainly driven by costs, with short - term prices running strongly. The polyester bottle - chip market is currently in a state of relatively high supply, and downstream demand is mainly focused on consuming previous inventories. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On May 15, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, naphtha, and xylene all decreased. The settlement price of WTI crude oil was $61.62/barrel, down 2.42%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil was $64.53/barrel, down 2.36%; the spot price of naphtha was $572/ton, down 3.05%; and the spot price of xylene was $709/ton, down 3.08% [1] - **PTA Futures and Spot**: On May 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,798 yuan/ton, down 1.56%; the settlement price was 4,824 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 5,103 yuan/ton, up 3.45% [1] - **PX Futures and Spot**: On May 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,762 yuan/ton, down 1.72%; the settlement price was 6,806 yuan/ton, down 0.82%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged at 6,817 yuan/ton [1] - **PR Futures and Spot**: On May 15, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 6,116 yuan/ton, down 1.35%; the settlement price was 6,154 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6,150 yuan/ton, down 0.49% [1] - **Downstream**: On May 15, 2025, the prices of most downstream products increased slightly. The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,900 yuan/ton, up 0.56%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,250 yuan/ton, up 0.69% [2] Operating Conditions - On May 15, 2025, the operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, and bottle - chip factories remained unchanged. The operating rate of PX was 73.32%, the PTA factory load rate was 74.41%, the polyester factory load rate was 91.34%, and the bottle - chip factory load rate was 85.13%. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased by 3.83 percentage points to 68.10% [1] Production and Sales Rates - On May 15, 2025, the production and sales rates of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips all decreased. The production and sales rate of polyester filament was 36%, down 16 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 44%, down 17 percentage points; and the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 41%, down 52 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Trading Strategies - The TA2509 contract closed at 4,798 yuan/ton, down 1.11%, with an intraday trading volume of 1.35 million lots; the 2509 contract closed at 6,762 yuan/ton, down 1.46%, with an intraday trading volume of 30,500 lots; the PR 2507 contract closed at 6,116 yuan/ton, down 0.71%, with an intraday trading volume of 50,000 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]