Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market, which has experienced over two decades of continuous price increases, is now entering a new adjustment phase with declining prices and sales performance [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since the housing reform in 1998, average housing prices have surged from 2,000 yuan per square meter to 11,000 yuan, a remarkable increase of over 5.5 times [1]. - In first-tier cities, prices have skyrocketed from 3,000 yuan to 65,000 yuan per square meter, marking an increase of more than 20 times [1]. - The current market is characterized by a "volume and price decline" scenario, indicating a significant downturn in the real estate sector [1]. Group 2: Expert Opinions - There are divided opinions among experts regarding future housing prices, with some believing prices in Beijing could reach 800,000 yuan per square meter and national prices could rise to 90,000 yuan per square meter [3]. - Conversely, others argue that the market is entering a downward trend, suggesting that price declines may become the norm [3]. Group 3: Demographic Changes - China is facing a significant demographic shift, with the elderly population expected to exceed 400 million by 2028, while the younger population is declining [4]. - This demographic change is likely to reduce the rigid demand for housing, contributing to potential price declines [4]. Group 4: Taxation and Regulation - The introduction of property taxes is anticipated, with plans to expand trials across more cities, which could increase holding costs for property speculators [4]. - The establishment of a more robust regulatory framework for affordable housing is underway, aiming to create a segmented market that includes commercial, rental, and shared ownership housing [6]. Group 5: Market Saturation - The real estate market in China appears saturated, with 96% of families owning at least one property and 41.5% owning two or more [6]. - The demand for new housing is expected to significantly decrease as most potential buyers have already made their purchases [6]. Group 6: Supply and Demand Imbalance - There are estimates of nearly 100 million vacant homes in China, indicating a supply that far exceeds demand [7]. - This oversupply situation suggests limited potential for significant price increases, with a downward trend already in motion [7]. Group 7: Future Valuation - The future value of properties will likely be determined by local residents' income levels rather than speculative activities, suggesting a return to housing's fundamental purpose [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has undergone significant changes, with a dramatic increase in property prices followed by a recent downturn, leading to contrasting expert opinions on future trends [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Historical Price Trends - Since the housing reform in 1998, the average national housing price has surged from approximately 2000 yuan per square meter to 11,000 yuan per square meter, a rise of over 5.5 times [1] - In first-tier cities, prices have escalated from 3000 yuan per square meter to 65,000 yuan per square meter, marking an increase of more than 20 times [1] Group 2: Future Price Predictions - Optimistic experts predict that by 2030, the average national housing price could reach 90,000 yuan per square meter, while prices in Beijing may exceed 800,000 yuan per square meter [1] - Conversely, pessimistic views suggest that the real estate market is entering a downward trend, with price declines becoming the norm [1][2] Group 3: Demographic Changes - China's aging population is projected to exceed 400 million by 2028, while the number of young people is declining, leading to a significant drop in housing demand [2][3] - The birth rate has decreased sharply, with the number of newborns dropping from 17.86 million in 2016 to 10.63 million by the end of 2021 [2] Group 4: Taxation and Policy Changes - The introduction of property taxes is anticipated to increase holding costs for speculative investors, thereby reducing speculative demand and pushing prices to align more closely with residential needs [3] - The government is accelerating the construction of affordable housing, which is expected to create a balanced market with options for different income groups [3] Group 5: Market Saturation and Vacancy Rates - The domestic real estate market is nearing saturation, with 96% of households owning at least one property, leading to a significant reduction in future purchasing demand [3][4] - Estimates suggest that the number of vacant homes has surpassed 100 million, indicating an oversupply that limits potential price increases [4] Group 6: Long-term Value Considerations - The future value of properties will likely be determined by local income levels rather than speculative activities, suggesting a return to rational pricing aligned with residents' financial capabilities [4]

再者，现在实体经济不景气，很多人收入减少或失业。这就导致居民收入支撑不了当前的高房价，房价 回归到合理的价格已经成为趋势。最后，国内房价连跌了4年，已经失去了赚钱的效应，不少投资客要 么选择退出，要么处于观望状态。正是由于炒房客的退出，未来楼市将逐步回归居住属性。 而对于当前房地产市场的形势，有不少人提出，2026年的房价，究竟会怎么走？实际上，明年的房价， 已经从当前的4大迹象中可以看出结果，先让我们一起来了解一下： 迹象一：大城市核心区域的房价也出现调整 从2022年开始，国内楼市就进入到了长期调整的趋势之中。先是像天津、郑州、石家庄等二三线城市房 价出现下跌。在进入到2023年之后，上海、深圳、广州等一线城市的房价也加入到下跌的队伍中来。截 止目前，全国房价平均跌幅超过了30%。特别是涿州、廊坊、燕郊等环京楼市的价格跌幅超过60%。从 目前情况来看，国内楼市调整的大局已定。 而导致国内各地房价下跌的原因主要有三个：首先，国内楼市存在着较大的泡沫，二三线城市房价收入 之比是20-25，一线城市的房价收入之比达到40。这意味着，当地居民不吃不喝几十年才能买一套房 子。而如此高房价不可能长期持续下去，最终将逐 ...

Core Insights - The central viewpoint of the news is that a recent survey by the central bank indicates a significant lack of confidence in the housing market, with only 9.1% of residents expecting housing prices to rise by the third quarter of 2025, while 23.5% anticipate a decline [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The central bank's survey is authoritative, covering 50 cities and 20,000 depositors, highlighting a strong signal regarding the current state of the housing market [3]. - The former deputy governor of the central bank, Zhu Min, stated that it is "very difficult" for housing prices to rise again due to factors like population aging and high per capita housing space [3][5]. Group 2: Demographic Changes - The traditional buyer demographics are shifting; younger generations (post-95s and post-00s) are less inclined to purchase homes, as marriage rates decline and many already have access to family-owned properties [5]. - The previous motivations for buying homes, such as the "mother-in-law economy" and speculative investment, are becoming less relevant as the market dynamics change [5]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The current housing market is characterized by a high rate of mortgage defaults, with an average default rate of 3.7% nationwide, and exceeding 5% in some third- and fourth-tier cities [5][6]. - The perception of housing as a financial asset is diminishing, leading to a focus on housing primarily as a necessity for living, which may reduce overall demand [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the era of speculative real estate investment is over, and future housing decisions should be based on personal needs and financial capabilities rather than market speculation [6]. - The government is increasing the construction of affordable housing to meet rental demand, indicating a shift in policy focus towards rental markets [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant decline in both transaction volume and prices, indicating a potential long-term downward trend in property values [1][3][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of April 2023, 44 cities reported a month-on-month decline in new home prices, while 76 cities saw a drop in second-hand home prices, reflecting a worsening trend compared to the previous month [1]. - New home sales plummeted by 48.9% month-on-month in March 2023, indicating a severe contraction in the market [3]. - The average price of new homes in 100 cities was 16,181 yuan per square meter, and second-hand homes averaged 15,826 yuan per square meter, suggesting that purchasing a typical property still requires over 1.5 to 2 million yuan [4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Industry experts believe that the real estate market bubble will gradually be deflated, leading to a return of property prices to levels that align with local residents' income [6][11]. - The demand for housing is expected to decrease due to an aging population and changing social dynamics, such as lower marriage rates and reduced birth rates, which will diminish the need for new housing [9]. - The imminent implementation of a real estate tax is anticipated to increase the holding costs for families with multiple properties, further impacting market dynamics [9]. - The demand for improved housing is becoming more rational as individuals reassess their financial situations post-pandemic, leading to a decline in speculative buying [10]. - The introduction of affordable housing options is expected to divert demand away from the commercial housing market, contributing to a long-term decrease in property prices [10].

Core Viewpoint - The era of easy profits from real estate investments is over, with declining property prices leading to a shift in public sentiment towards home buying and investment [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The previous real estate boom was driven by a "supply-demand" imbalance, with rapid urbanization leading to a housing shortage and a widespread belief that property values would only increase [3]. - Current trends show a significant decline in demand due to decreasing birth rates and changing family dynamics, with many households no longer prioritizing home purchases [3][5]. - An oversupply of housing in many cities has resulted in properties losing their status as "scarce goods," leading to a lack of confidence in continuous price appreciation [3][5]. Group 2: Changing Sentiment - Public sentiment has shifted from "fear of missing out" on property purchases to "fear of making a wrong investment," as many have witnessed significant losses in the current market [3][5]. - Investors have largely exited the market, contributing to stagnant or declining property prices due to a lack of buyers [3][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Future property price movements will not follow a uniform trend; major cities may see stable prices, while smaller cities with declining populations will likely experience further depreciation [5]. - The perception of housing is changing, with properties increasingly viewed as "consumables" rather than "hard currency," leading to a decline in urgency for home purchases [5]. - The trend towards renting is expected to grow, as younger generations prioritize flexibility and quality of life over home ownership [5]. Group 4: Recommendations for Individuals - For those with genuine housing needs, purchasing is still advisable, but it is recommended to avoid debt and leverage [7]. - Investment in real estate is discouraged due to low rental yields and declining property values, with bank savings being a more attractive option [7]. - The focus should shift from wealth accumulation through property to practical living arrangements, emphasizing stable employment and savings [7].

Core Insights - The current real estate market is experiencing a paradox where despite lower down payment ratios, reduced loan interest rates, and incentives from developers, housing prices continue to decline [1][3] - The key issue lies in the psychological expectations of buyers, who are hesitant to purchase due to fears of further price drops [3][5] - The supply-demand dynamics have shifted, with many cities now having sufficient housing supply, leading to a change in buyer demographics and attitudes towards homeownership [3][5] Policy Impact - Multiple rounds of government policies aimed at stimulating the housing market have been implemented, including relaxed standards for first-time homebuyers and financial incentives [1][3] - Despite these measures, over fifty cities have reported continued declines in second-hand housing prices [1] Market Dynamics - The financial situation and mindset of consumers have changed, with many individuals facing unstable incomes and depleted savings, making them reluctant to take on long-term mortgages [5][6] - Developers are under pressure to sell properties quickly, often leading to significant price reductions for new listings, which in turn affects the prices of surrounding second-hand homes [5][8] Investment Perspective - The current market conditions present a unique opportunity for genuine homebuyers to negotiate better deals and take their time in selecting properties [5][9] - For investors, a more cautious approach is advised as the era of guaranteed profits from real estate investments has ended, with future opportunities likely to be more selective and structural [6][8] Future Outlook - The real estate market may be entering a new phase characterized by price differentiation across cities and neighborhoods, with some areas continuing to adjust while others stabilize [8][9] - The shift away from viewing homes solely as investment assets towards prioritizing residential needs may lead to a more mature real estate market [9]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has shifted from a period of rapid price increases to a decline, with national housing prices experiencing a downward trend, marking the end of the era where buying property was seen as a guaranteed profit opportunity [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of September 2025, only 5 out of 70 major cities in China saw an increase in new home prices, while the second-hand housing market experienced a complete decline, indicating a nationwide drop in housing prices [1]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have seen second-hand home prices decrease by over 0.8%, with Shanghai leading at a 1.0% decline [1]. Group 2: Underlying Causes - The demand for housing has changed significantly due to urbanization reaching over 65%, limited future growth, and a declining population, leading to fewer potential homebuyers [3]. - Household debt levels have reached historical highs, limiting the purchasing power of families who are already heavily burdened by mortgage repayments, causing many to adopt a wait-and-see approach [3]. - Consumer confidence has been shaken by reports of real estate companies facing financial difficulties and declining property values, leading to a shift in perception regarding the profitability of real estate investments [3]. Group 3: Societal Changes - The younger generation is increasingly viewing homeownership as a non-essential goal, prioritizing quality of life and experiences over long-term financial commitments associated with mortgages [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to enter a new phase characterized by stability in total volume but differentiation in structure, with no return to widespread price increases [6]. - Core areas in first-tier and strong second-tier cities may see price stabilization or slow recovery due to ongoing population influx, while third and fourth-tier cities may face prolonged downward pressure on prices [6]. - The quality of housing will become a critical factor, with low-density, well-designed properties likely to be more desirable, while high-density developments may struggle with resale and value retention [6]. Group 5: Investment Perspective - The narrative around real estate has shifted from wealth creation to a focus on living quality, necessitating more rational and cautious decision-making regarding home purchases [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic real estate market is experiencing a complex situation with favorable policies on one hand and alarming market data on the other [1] - Major banks have significantly lowered down payment ratios for first-time and second homes, which has eased financial pressure for potential buyers [1] - Cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have implemented "recognizing house, not loan" policies, stimulating market enthusiasm and leading to increased transaction volumes [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - In August, 42 cities saw a month-on-month decline in new home prices, while 96 cities experienced a drop in second-hand home prices, indicating a potential oversupply and downward price pressure [2] - The number of second-hand homes listed for sale has surged, with Shanghai nearing 200,000 listings and Beijing close to 190,000, suggesting an oversupply in the market [2] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - There are two contrasting views on future housing prices: optimists believe that policy stimuli will lead to a rebound, while pessimists argue that the long-term adjustment trend will result in significant price drops [3] Group 4: Key Factors Influencing the Market - A significant decline in home-buying demand is noted, as many families face income reductions or unemployment, limiting their purchasing power despite favorable policies [6] - The rental-to-sale ratio indicates a substantial bubble in housing prices, with the average recovery period for landlords in China being 50-60 years, compared to the international standard of around 20 years [8] - The rising household debt limits further leverage opportunities, with 42% of families owning multiple properties and a total mortgage scale approaching 39 trillion [8] - The government is increasing the supply of affordable housing to meet the needs of low- and middle-income groups, which may alleviate pressure on the commodity housing market [9]

Core Insights - The future of the real estate market in China is uncertain, with contrasting views on whether properties will become "as expensive as gold" or "as cheap as green onions" in five years [1][6]. Market Trends - Since 2023, the Chinese real estate market has entered a deep adjustment phase, with both sales volume and area declining. By February 2024, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities had decreased for 22 consecutive months, reaching 15,173 yuan per square meter [3]. - In the second-hand housing market, 99 cities experienced a month-on-month price drop, with only Sanya showing a slight increase. The number of cities with falling prices has exceeded 90 for nine consecutive months [3]. Government Policies - In response to the downturn, the government has implemented unprecedented measures to stimulate the market, including lowering mortgage rates, reducing down payment ratios, and increasing public housing loan limits. Many cities have lifted purchase and sale restrictions, including major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen [5]. Future Outlook - There is a heated debate regarding future property prices. Some believe that history will repeat itself, citing the 2014-2015 market rebound, while others argue that prices will eventually return to a rational level due to the disconnect between property prices and average household income [6]. - The disparity between property owners and non-owners is a critical factor influencing future market dynamics. The real estate market has shifted from a state of scarcity to one of serious oversupply, with a significant portion of properties held by a few investors, leaving many families unable to purchase homes [8]. - As the market becomes more of an investment tool rather than a living space, any adjustments will lead to increased selling pressure from speculators, contributing to a downward trend in prices that aligns more closely with residents' income levels [8].