Core Insights - The number of new A-share accounts reached 1.65 million in June, a year-on-year increase of 53%, indicating a significant rise in market confidence among retail investors [1][2] - The total number of new accounts for the first half of 2025 is projected to reach 12.6 million, reflecting a 33% year-on-year growth [1] - The A-share market has shown increased activity, with total trading volume in June reaching 26.72 trillion yuan, a 79.57% increase compared to the same period last year [2] Monthly New Account Trends - January saw 1.57 million new accounts, while February experienced a surge to 2.84 million, nearly doubling from January [1][2] - March recorded 3.07 million new accounts, marking a five-month high, driven by the ongoing profitability in the A-share market [3] - April's new accounts dropped to 1.92 million due to market fluctuations influenced by global trade tensions, but still showed a 30.6% year-on-year increase [3] - May's new accounts fell to 1.56 million, a 19.17% decrease from April, but still represented a 22.86% year-on-year growth [3] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The increase in new accounts is closely tied to the market's recovery and the sustained profitability of A-shares, which has attracted new retail investors [2][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.9% in June, surpassing the 3400-point mark, contributing to the positive market sentiment [2] - Industry experts suggest that the growth in new accounts reflects a restoration of investor confidence and recognition of the long-term investment value in A-shares, with expectations of entering a second phase of a bull market [4]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has experienced a historic recovery, rising over 20% in two months, a rare occurrence in the past 60 years [1] - Despite the impressive performance of the U.S. stock market, there is a lack of investor enthusiasm, attributed to a group of persistent pessimists, particularly among Democratic investors [1][2] - The Ned Davis Research team analyzed investor sentiment data, noting that the "Daily Trading Sentiment Composite Index" only reached 62.2 after a 20.5% increase, well below the typical threshold of 70 for such rallies [1] Group 2 - The market began with extreme pessimism, and a significant amount of negative sentiment remains, as indicated by various sentiment surveys [2] - A striking statistic from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows that only 24.7% of investors were bullish in mid-March, with a slight recovery to 46.8% in May, still below average levels [2] - The report highlights a historical low in sentiment among Democratic investors, with 48% expressing extreme concern about market volatility, compared to only 9% of Republican investors [2] Group 3 - The report suggests that when the pessimistic Democratic investors turn bullish, there could be further upward potential for the market, as historical data indicates an average annual return of 10.8% for the S&P 500 when AAII bullish sentiment is below 59.5% [2] - While Republican investors may exhibit overly optimistic sentiment, caution is advised for the second half of the year, although indicators suggest that the "surrender" of Democratic investors could trigger the next market upcycle [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a rebound in pessimistic sentiment among American individual investors, with bearish outlook rising from 36.7% to 41.9% over the past week, marking the 26th week above the historical average of 31.0% in the last 28 weeks [1] - The proportion of respondents holding an optimistic view for the short-term outlook decreased from 37.7% to 32.9%, remaining below the historical average of 37.5% for the 16th week out of the last 17 weeks [1] - A significant 64% of respondents identified "tariffs, economy, and/or inflation" as the most important factors influencing their six-month stock market outlook, followed by corporate earnings (11%), valuations (10%), and monetary policy and interest rates (9%) [1]

Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Personal investor sentiment continues to decline, while institutional investor sentiment shows a fluctuating upward trend, indicating a potential market consolidation phase[1] - Institutional sentiment is on the verge of turning positive, which could trigger an upward market signal if it continues to recover[1] Group 2: Industry Sentiment - Certain industries, including coal, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and machinery, are showing signs of potential short-term upward movement[1] - Sectors such as power and utilities, steel, and transportation are expected to weaken in the short term, while textiles and agriculture may see slight improvements[1] Group 3: Market Participation - The number of market participants has increased notably in sectors like electric power, military, and pharmaceuticals, while sectors such as home appliances and agriculture have seen a decline in participants[2] - Personal investors are increasingly focusing on transportation, communication, and utilities, with relative attention in these sectors rising significantly[2] Group 4: Market Independence - The correlation between A-shares and other major asset classes has continued to decline, indicating that A-shares are currently in a relatively independent market phase[2]

Group 1: Investor Sentiment and Market Trends - Investor sentiment towards A-shares has improved since July 2024, with a significant increase in confidence regarding China's leading position in key technology sectors [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 17.9% and the Shenzhen Composite Index by 26.8% from August to December 2024, following the introduction of unexpected financial policies in September 2024 [1] - By November 2024, 68.2% of respondents believed A-shares would rise, an increase of 20.7 percentage points since July, with expected returns rising to approximately 5.3%, up 9.3 percentage points [1] Group 2: Real Estate Market Expectations - Investor expectations for the real estate market have aligned with market conditions, showing signs of recovery after a low in September 2023 [2] - Approximately 52.5% of respondents expect housing prices to rise, an increase of 4.9 percentage points since September 2023, with expected returns at about 0.7%, up 0.9 percentage points [2] Group 3: International Relations and Asset Allocation - There has been a notable increase in investor focus on international relations, leading to greater allocations towards safe-haven assets [2] - As of April 2025, the proportion of investors willing to invest in gold increased by 16.3% compared to October 2018, while those willing to invest in bonds rose by 16.8% [2] Group 4: Private Economy and Policy Stability - Attention towards the private economy continues to rise, with 44.5% of respondents considering its status important for future investment decisions, an increase of 9.5 percentage points since December 2020 [2] - Approximately 74% of respondents believe that enhancing the continuity and stability of macro policies is essential for boosting private entrepreneurs' confidence [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that investor sentiment towards A-shares has improved since July 2024, while expectations for the real estate sector have also shown signs of recovery since September 2023, although overall sentiment remains relatively negative [1] - The report highlights that investor sentiment towards A-shares reached its lowest point since 2018 in July 2024, but a series of unexpected financial policies introduced in September 2023 triggered a rally, leading to a significant increase in positive sentiment by November 2024 [1] - The latest survey indicates a slight decline in positive sentiment, with approximately 61.5% of respondents believing A-shares will rise, down 6.7 percentage points from November 2024, although the net increase in those willing to invest in stocks rose by 1.4 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The survey coincided with an increase in trade tensions between the US and China, with investors perceiving short-term pressures but maintaining a positive long-term outlook [2] - Approximately 54.4% of respondents believe China is a world leader in artificial intelligence, an increase of 14.7 percentage points since November 2024, while around 55% believe China leads in the new energy sector, up 19.2 percentage points since April 2021 [2]

Group 1: Investor Sentiment on A-shares - Investor sentiment towards A-shares improved after July 2024, with 68.2% of respondents expecting an increase in A-shares by November 2024, up 20.7 percentage points from July [1] - The expected return rate for A-shares rose to approximately 5.3% in November 2024, an increase of 9.3 percentage points from July [1] - The net increase in the number of respondents willing to invest in stocks was about 11.3% in November 2024, a rise of 24 percentage points from July [1] Group 2: External Environment and Real Estate Market - In April 2025, about 61.5% of respondents expected A-shares to rise, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points from November 2024 [2] - The proportion of respondents expecting housing prices to rise was approximately 52.5%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points from September 2023 [2] - The expected return rate for housing prices was about 0.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from September 2023 [2] Group 3: Economic Growth and Investment Preferences - Approximately 33.2% of respondents believed future economic growth could exceed 5% [3] - The net increase in respondents willing to invest in gold was about 16.3%, up 17 percentage points from October 2018 [3] - About 54.4% of respondents believed China is world-leading in artificial intelligence, an increase of 14.7 percentage points from November 2024 [3]

5月15日，长江商学院在北京校区发布了2025年第一季度《投资者情绪调查报告》(以下简称"报告")， 这是该学院第17次发布此类调查。报告基于2025年4月的问卷调查数据，结合A股上市公司2025年第一 季度财报及其他国内外资本市场和宏观数据，深入分析了中国资本市场投资者的情绪和预期。 调查结果显示，投资者对A股的情绪在2024年7月后回暖回升。投资者对房地产的预期于2023年9月后有 所回暖，目前整体仍然处于较为消极的情绪，但这一情绪在减弱。本次调查适逢美国加大对我国贸易战 力度期间，投资者认为贸易纠纷短期内会给我国带来较大压力，但长期而言，影响偏正面。投资者对我 国在重要科技领域的领先地位有信心，认为会有更大增长。约54.4%的受访者认为我国在人工智能方面 世界领先，比2024年11月提高了14.7%个百分点；约55%的受访者认为我国在新能源领域处于世界领先 地位，比2021年4月提高了19.2个百分点。 A股情绪回暖，但仍面临短期波动 自2021年年末以来，A股市场经历了持续下跌。从2021年12月至2024年8月，上证综指和深证综指分别 累计下跌21.9%和39%。在2024年7月的调查中，受访者中认 ...