丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨医疗保健 [Table_Title] 药品产业链周度系列（七） 借船 or 造船，中国创新药全球竞风流 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近年来，中国药企原研能力持续增强，越来越多高质量的创新成果频频登上国际舞台，推动国 产创新药加速"出海"。当前主要有"造船出海"和"借船出海"两种路径：在"造船出海"方 面，百济神州和传奇生物通过自主开展海外临床试验并成功获得 FDA 上市批准，实现了关键性 突破；在"借船出海"方面，BD 授权和 NewCo 模式逐步成为中国 Biotech 企业实现早期管线 价值转化、对接国际资源、降低全球化风险的关键路径，相关交易金额与频次持续攀升，标志 着中国创新药正加速走向全球，带动创新药企实现价值跃升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 彭英骐 徐晓欣 张楠 万梦蝶 刘长洪 SAC：S0490524030005 SAC：S0490522120001 SAC：S0490524070006 SAC：S0490525050001 SFC：BUZ392 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.955 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry has transitioned from a focus on "generic drugs" to "original innovation and global licensing" [1] - Goldman Sachs reports that the surge in the innovative drug sector is driven by the globalization of Chinese innovative drugs, particularly through licensing agreements [1][3] - As of mid-2025, the Chinese biotech sector has seen a 78% increase, outperforming major indices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Chinese biotech industry is undergoing a structural revaluation, with current market capitalization at only 14%-15% of U.S. counterparts, despite contributing nearly 33% to global innovation [3][4] - China contributed 50% of new drug molecules entering human clinical trials globally and holds about one-third of the global innovative drug pipeline [4] - The active participation of Chinese companies in global business development (BD) transactions has increased significantly, accounting for 27% of global transaction numbers and 32% of transaction value in the first half of 2025 [4] Group 2: Innovation and Technology - Chinese companies are leading in the development of ADCs (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) and BsAbs (Bispecific Antibodies), with ADCs representing 70% of global clinical entries since 2023 [5][6] - Oncology remains the primary focus for Chinese innovative drug licensing, contributing over 60% of transactions in the past three years [6] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The summer market is seen as a potential window for long-term investors to accumulate quality innovative drug stocks, as fewer clinical data releases may keep stock prices stable [7] - Goldman Sachs introduces the "PoLS" framework to assess the investment value of licensing agreements based on product competitiveness, clinical data maturity, and potential transaction interest [7][8] - Future valuation increases are expected from successful licensing transactions, clinical data releases, and new projects entering the global market [8]

Group 1 - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 41.4% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index which rose by 25.2% [1] - The upcoming implementation of commercial insurance for innovative drugs is expected to have limited short-term impact but will open up long-term payment opportunities for innovative drugs [1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration has introduced measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, emphasizing comprehensive policy support [1] Group 2 - The commercial health insurance premium income in China is projected to reach CNY 9.773 billion in 2024, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth [2] - The low claims ratio of commercial health insurance, with claims amounting to CNY 3.848 billion in 2023, indicates potential for significant growth in both premium income and claims ratio under supportive policies [2] - The consumption medical sector presents valuation recovery opportunities, with key companies such as Giant Bio, Guoshengtang, and Times Angel being highlighted for their strong product performance and growth potential [3] Group 3 - Recommended stocks for investment include 3SBio (01530), Giant Bio (02367), Guoshengtang (02273), Times Angel (06699), BeiGene (ONC.US), and Innovent Biologics (01801) [4]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese innovative pharmaceuticals are accelerating their international expansion, with significant licensing deals and supportive policies facilitating this trend [2][6][7]. Group 1: Market Activity - In the first half of the year, the upfront payments for innovative drug licensing exceeded $2.5 billion, with total transaction amounts nearing $50 billion, almost matching the total for the previous year [2]. - A notable licensing agreement was signed between 3SBio and Pfizer, valued at up to $60.5 billion, involving the exclusive rights for the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707 outside of mainland China [3]. - Rongchang Bio announced a licensing deal with Vor Biopharma Inc. with a total transaction value of $4.23 billion, including an upfront payment of $45 million [3]. Group 2: Policy Support - The rapid development of the innovative drug industry is supported by policy reforms, including expedited drug review processes and dynamic adjustments to the medical insurance catalog [6][7]. - In the first half of the year, 43 innovative drugs and 45 innovative medical devices were approved, representing year-on-year increases of 59% and 87%, respectively [6]. - Recent measures have been introduced to support the internationalization of innovative drugs, encouraging companies to explore markets in Southeast Asia and Central Asia [7]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The internationalization strategies of Chinese pharmaceutical companies are diversifying, with four main models identified: independent internationalization, licensing, NewCo model, and mergers and acquisitions [5]. - The collaboration landscape is broadening, with partnerships not only with traditional pharmaceutical companies but also with emerging biotech firms [4]. - Despite the progress, challenges remain, including weaknesses in basic research, target homogeneity, regulatory alignment, and commercialization capabilities [7].

Core Insights - The biopharmaceutical industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with traditional therapies like monoclonal antibodies and vaccines growing at a steady rate of 8% to 16%, while emerging therapies such as cell and gene therapy (CGT), bispecific antibodies, and antibody-drug conjugates (ADC) are experiencing explosive growth rates of 30% to 71% [1][3][4] - The success of biopharmaceutical companies hinges on their ability to identify and invest in the few high-potential drug candidates among thousands of targets, emphasizing the importance of speed and precision in drug development [2][4] - The global biopharmaceutical market is projected to grow from $297.9 billion in 2020 to $530.1 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.2%, surpassing the growth of traditional chemical drugs [3][4] Industry Trends - The CGT market is expected to surge from $2.08 billion in 2020 to $30.54 billion by 2025, reflecting a staggering CAGR of 71%, with China's market projected to grow from 2.38 million RMB to 17.885 billion RMB, a 276% increase [3][4] - The demand for innovative therapies is driven by a growing patient base and clear medical needs, particularly in the weight management sector, which is projected to become a nearly trillion-yuan industry in China [5][6] - The competition in the GLP-1 market is intensifying, with domestic companies entering the field, but challenges remain due to the strong market presence of established players like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly [5][6] Innovation and Globalization - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are increasingly focusing on "license-out" strategies to expand their global presence, with significant growth in overseas licensing deals, totaling over $50 billion in 2024 [7][8] - Recent policy measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration aim to enhance the accessibility of innovative drugs and support the development of the pharmaceutical industry, providing a more favorable environment for growth [8][9] - The industry is witnessing a shift from imitation to original innovation, with Chinese companies making strides in developing cutting-edge therapies such as dual-target agonists and ADCs, positioning themselves as competitive players in the global market [9][10] Future Outlook - The biopharmaceutical sector is entering a new era characterized by rapid innovation and increased competition, with the potential for significant breakthroughs in drug development [10][11] - The next decade is expected to see a continued evolution of the industry, with Chinese companies transitioning from followers to leaders in the global biopharmaceutical landscape, driven by technological advancements and policy support [11]

A股单抗概念盘初活跃，赛升药业、海南海药均涨超9%，以岭药业、中源协和、复旦张江等个股跟 涨；消息面上，港股基石药业与欧洲药企Gentili就舒格利单抗达成合作，创新药出海有望再次提振。 ...

1. 创新药的出海价值被持续验证，估值提升趋势有望延续 证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 正向循环建立，出海趋势强化 医药行业周报 投资评级： 报告日期： 推荐 （维持） 2025年07月07日 分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 创新出海是本轮创新药价值重估的重要推动因素，其价值的锚点在于BD估值水平的变化，尤其是PD-1/VEGF为代表的双抗。 从康方生物与SUMMIT THERAPEUTICS 的合作开始到6月2日，BMS与BioNTech达成一项超90亿美元的交易，海外MNC 对PD-1双抗的价值认知和交易金额在快速提高。根据医药魔方数据，2025年Q1，中国医药交易数量同比增加34%，而交 易总金额同比增加222%，单项交易金额提升显著。从早期出海的大品种来看，更多积极的临床数据发布，验证了中国创新 药的品质，提高了MNC与中国创新药企业合作的信心。2025年7月3日，百利天恒发布公告，公司自主研发的全球首创且唯 一进入III期临床阶段的EGFR/HER3双抗ADC在鼻咽癌的III期临床试验中，期 ...

今年 6 月创新药及其产业链的调整主要是由于资金面的变化。特别是之前一些 TMT 资金涌入后，整体需要进行主题回归。然而，支撑本轮行情的三大逻辑 ——政策、产业和业绩，目前没有任何一个被证伪。因此，我们预期今年下半 年整个出海行情会提速。 为什么认为今年下半年创新药出海会提速？ 我们认为今年下半年创新药出海会提速有几个原因。首先，与产业界交流发现， 不论是投行、律师还是 FA，他们目前在手项目相比去年同期有显著提升，比今 年上半年还要多一些。这些项目通常需要两个季度来消化，因此我们预期下半 年出海会加快。其次，今年年初的 AACR 大会和 ASCO 大会上，中国企业参会 数量以及临床数据读出的数量相比过去两三年都有两三倍增长，这表明中国分 创新药&创新药产业链更新 20250703 摘要 中国创新药企出海提速，得益于投行项目增加、AACR/ASCO 大会数据 认可及工程师红利，二代 IO 市场潜力巨大，预计达 2000 亿美元，中国 占比约 40%且研发进度领先。 创新药企通过"借船出海"模式盈利，包括首付款、研发里程碑付款、 商业化里程碑付款及销售分成，为企业提供清晰的估值锚，并可用 DCF 方法计算现金流 ...

Core Viewpoint - The successful FDA approval of ZEGFROVY (舒沃替尼片) marks a significant milestone for the company as it becomes the first independently developed innovative drug from China to enter the global market, with expectations of reaching over 10 billion yuan in global sales peak [4][6]. Group 1: Product Approval and Market Potential - ZEGFROVY has received accelerated approval from the FDA for treating adult patients with locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with EGFR exon 20 insertion mutations [4]. - The drug is expected to achieve a global market sales peak of approximately 12.954 billion yuan, with the U.S. market presenting a higher pricing potential compared to China [6]. - The incidence of EGFR exon 20 insertion mutations in NSCLC patients is estimated to be around 4.8% to 5.1% in China, while in the U.S., it ranges from 9% to 12% [5][6]. Group 2: Commercial Strategy and Market Expansion - The company aims to maximize its long-term interests and shareholder returns by actively evaluating various overseas market expansion models, with a focus on the U.S. and European markets due to their stronger payment capabilities [6][11]. - The domestic market remains crucial, but the overseas market is anticipated to become a second growth curve for the company [6][11]. - The company has a commercial team nearing 500 members to enhance market coverage for its products [6]. Group 3: Research and Development Pipeline - The company has a robust pipeline with seven products in international multi-center clinical stages, including ZEGFROVY and three other drugs [7][9]. - ZEGFROVY has shown a confirmed objective response rate (ORR) of 78.6% in treating EGFR exon 20 insertion NSCLC, with a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 12.4 months [9]. - The company is also developing DZD6008, a selective EGFR TKI, which aims to address unmet clinical needs in NSCLC [9][10]. Group 4: Financial Performance and Funding - The company reported a net loss of approximately 850 million yuan in 2024, a 24% reduction year-on-year, and a net loss of about 190 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 14% decrease [14]. - The company successfully completed a nearly 1.8 billion yuan private placement to support its R&D projects, particularly for ZEGFROVY, Golixty (高瑞哲), and DZD8586 [14][15]. - The annual R&D investment from 2020 to 2024 has shown a consistent increase, indicating a commitment to sustaining product pipeline development [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the ChiNext index and key sectors such as consumer electronics and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas. Group 1: Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector experienced significant gains, with Industrial Fulian reaching a market capitalization of over 460 billion [3][4]. - Other notable stocks in this sector include Lens Technology, which rose by 11%, GoerTek by 4.6%, and Luxshare Precision by 5.5% [7]. - Related electronic component stocks also surged, with Jiuzhiyang increasing by 15% and several others hitting their daily limit [10]. - Supply chain news indicates that Apple's foldable iPhone is in the prototype development stage, with a projected launch in the second half of 2026 [10]. - The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam may benefit Chinese manufacturers with established operations in Vietnam, allowing them to mitigate tariff risks [10]. - CITIC Securities remains optimistic about the electronic sector's potential for excess returns in the upcoming quarter, driven by domestic self-sufficiency and strong industrial demand [10]. Group 2: Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The innovative pharmaceutical sector saw a resurgence, with stocks like Guosheng Tang and Shenzhou Cell hitting their daily limit with a 20% increase [11]. - Recent policy support from the National Medical Products Administration aims to streamline the clinical trial approval process for innovative drugs, enhancing development efficiency [14]. - The National Healthcare Security Administration has introduced measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, reflecting a growing industry momentum [15]. - Analysts note that China's innovative drug sector is gaining competitive advantages in areas such as ADC, bispecific antibodies, and cell therapy, with increasing global interest from major pharmaceutical companies [15]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market Trends - The Hong Kong market showed weakness, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both declining by approximately 0.7% [16][17]. - Notable declines were observed in popular stocks such as Xiaomi, which fell over 3%, and Pop Mart, which dropped by 4% [17]. - Xiaomi's recent product launch has led to increased order volumes, but concerns over delivery timelines and tax policy changes may impact consumer purchasing decisions [20]. - Pop Mart's high valuation has sparked debate, with some viewing it as a bubble while others recognize its growth potential through effective IP management and platform integration [23].