以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者宏观团队 申万宏源宏观 . 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 4 . 2 7 - 5 . 9 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 深度专题 1、 深度专题 | 提振消费的"关键"？ 热点思考 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"周见"系列会议第29期 《聚焦"政治局会议"》 《美债，风险"解除"了吗？——关税"压力测试"系列之四》 4、"洞见"系列会议第59期 《美国经济：滞涨困境、金融脆弱性与美联储对策——关税"压力测试"系列之五》 深度专题 热 点 思 考 1 热点思考 | 美债，风险"解除"了吗？——关税"压力测试"系列之四 热点思考 2025.4.28 1 深度专题 | 提振消费的"关键"？ 深度专题 2025.5.7 4月中央政治局会议提出"设立服务消费与养老再贷款"，促消费工具箱再"上新"。提振消费的"关键"何在，后续 还有哪些期待？ 1、 热点思考 | 美债，风险"解除"了吗？——关税"压力测试"系列之四 2、 热点思考 | 美国经济：滞胀困境、金融脆弱性与美联储对策——关税"压力测试"系列之五 3、 3分钟看清五一全球要闻 1、 ...

4 . 2 7 - 5 . 9 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 深度专题 1、 深度专题 | 提振消费的"关键"？ 热点思考 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"周见"系列会议第29期 《聚焦"政治局会议"》 《美债，风险"解除"了吗？——关税"压力测试"系列之四》 4、"洞见"系列会议第59期 《美国经济：滞涨困境、金融脆弱性与美联储对策——关税"压力测试"系列之五》 目录 1、 热点思考 | 美债，风险"解除"了吗？——关税"压力测试"系列之四 2、 热点思考 | 美国经济：滞胀困境、金融脆弱性与美联储对策——关税"压力测试"系列之五 3、 3分钟看清五一全球要闻 1、 海外高频 | 海外风险资产集体修复，黄金新高后获利回吐 2、 政策高频 | 加快建成具有全球影响力的科技创新高地 3、 利润正增能否延续？——工业企业效益数据点评（25.03） 4、 打好稳就业"组合拳"——稳就业稳经济新闻发布会学习理解 5、 4月PMI：内外开始分化 6、 "增量政策"序幕拉开——稳市场稳预期新闻发布会学习理解 7、 Top Charts | "五一"假期消费图鉴 8、 Top Charts ...

Group 1 - Xi Jinping met with the President of Serbia, the leader of Myanmar, the President of Cuba, the President of Venezuela, and the Prime Minister of Slovakia during his visit to Moscow for the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War [1][4][5][6][7][8] - Xi Jinping concluded his state visit to Russia and attended the 80th anniversary celebration of the victory in the Great Patriotic War, returning to Beijing on May 10 [2][9][21] - Brazilian President Lula will visit China from May 10 to 14 at the invitation of Xi Jinping [3][10] Group 2 - The summer grain production is entering a critical period, with various regions enhancing field management to ensure stable grain production [5][12] - The People's Bank of China established a service consumption and elderly re-loan program with a total amount of 500 billion yuan, aimed at boosting financial support for key service consumption sectors and the elderly industry [16] - The new policies continue to support local consumption and stabilize growth, with improvements in service processes enhancing market vitality [11]

Group 1 - The Chinese government continues to support consumption and stabilize growth through the "Two New" policy [8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed a month-on-month increase after previously declining [10] - A total of 500 billion yuan has been allocated for service consumption and elderly care refinancing [13] Group 2 - The Hengqin Port is expected to surpass 10 million passenger trips this year, setting a new historical record [15] - The Chongqing section of the Yuxia High-speed Railway has begun trial operations [16] - A job fair for 2025 graduates was held in Xiong'an New Area [17]

Group 1 - Pakistan Air Force fighter jets have launched airstrikes on multiple Indian air force bases, including locations in Gujarat, Ambala, and Jalandhar, with reports of Pakistani jets entering Indian airspace [1] - Pakistan has officially initiated a military operation named "Copper Wall" in response to ongoing provocations from India, targeting various locations across India, including a missile storage facility in Punjab [3] - During the operation, Pakistan reportedly conducted cyber attacks that led to approximately 70% of India's power grid being paralyzed [4] Group 2 - The Pakistani military has also launched a separate operation named "Bunyan-un-Marsoos" as retaliation for what it describes as Indian aggression, with explosions reported in Karachi's Shah Faisal Colony and Malir areas [5]

Group 1: New Occupations and Professions - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has announced the addition of 17 new occupations, including elderly care service providers and cross-border e-commerce operation managers, as well as 42 new professions such as generative AI system testers and smart scenic area managers [1] Group 2: Marriage Registration Regulation - The revised Marriage Registration Regulations will be implemented nationwide starting May 10, enhancing the convenience of marriage registration through a "national handling" approach [3] - From May 10, individuals applying for marriage or divorce registration will no longer need to present their household registration book, simplifying the process [5] - The regulations mandate the establishment of a national marriage information database to ensure accurate, timely, complete, and secure marriage information [7] Group 3: Financial Support for Service Consumption and Elderly Care - The People's Bank of China has set up a 500 billion yuan quota for re-loans aimed at service consumption and elderly care, encouraging financial institutions to increase support for key sectors such as accommodation, dining, entertainment, and education [8] - The re-loan program will be available to 21 national financial institutions and 5 systemically important urban commercial banks, allowing them to independently decide on loan issuance and conditions [10] Group 4: Automotive Safety Standards - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public opinion on the mandatory national standard for automotive door handle safety, addressing issues related to hidden door handles that have emerged in practical applications [11] - Experts highlight the need for improved safety standards due to the increasing diversity of automotive door handle products, which have shown various issues such as insufficient strength and potential safety risks [13]

Group 1 - The State Council of China, led by Premier Li Qiang, approved the draft of the "Regulations on Government Data Sharing," aiming to enhance public services and create a unified national government big data system [3] - The People's Bank of China announced a new loan program for service consumption and elderly care, with a total quota of 500 billion yuan and an interest rate of 1.5% [7] - The People's Bank of China released the first quarter monetary policy report for 2025, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery [8] Group 2 - The G20 Trade and Investment Working Group held its second meeting, discussing global trade challenges and criticizing unilateral tariff policies by the U.S. government [6] - Panasonic announced plans to cut approximately 10,000 jobs globally, including 5,000 in Japan, as part of a strategy to terminate unprofitable businesses [18] - Tencent launched a new open-source video generation tool, indicating ongoing innovation in the multi-modal video technology sector [23] Group 3 - Alibaba's founder Jack Ma visited the company's headquarters to encourage employees to maintain their entrepreneurial spirit [17] - The Chinese government is intensifying efforts to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, emphasizing the importance of resource export control for national security [12] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance are seeking public opinions on the revised draft of the "Securities Settlement Risk Fund Management Measures" [10]

Domestic News - The People's Bank of China released the monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of 2025 [1] - Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to study and implement President Xi Jinping's important speech on economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and discussed measures to deepen the reform and innovation of national-level economic and technological development zones [1] - The central bank established a re-lending program for service consumption and elderly care with a quota of 500 billion yuan, aimed at encouraging financial institutions to increase support for key sectors such as accommodation, catering, cultural and sports entertainment, and education [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the legislative work plan for 2025 to maintain stable and healthy market development and protect the legitimate rights and interests of small and medium investors [1] - The China Futures Association strengthened the management of futures intermediaries and standardized their behavior [1] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange modified trading rules and published settlement rules for the first time [1] - The General Administration of Customs and six other departments adjusted management measures related to special customs supervision areas, bonded supervision places, and processing trade outside the zones [1] International News - ECB Governing Council member Simkus stated that a rate cut in June is necessary for the European Central Bank [2] - Japan is considering exporting next-generation jet fighters developed jointly with Australia, the UK, and Italy [2] - India requested the US to eliminate all current and future tariffs, proposing to reduce the tariff gap with the US from nearly 13% to less than 4% under a potential trade agreement [2] - Fed Governor Barr indicated that the Federal Reserve may face difficulties if inflation and unemployment rise simultaneously [2] - Fed Governor Kugler noted that the labor market may be approaching full employment [4] - Fed officials announced that regular operations of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) are forthcoming [4] - Von der Leyen mentioned a potential visit to the US if a specific trade agreement is reached [4]

5月7日，国家金融部门推出一揽子金融政策，其中，央行设立5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款引发关 注。服务消费与养老为何成政策"靶心"？5000亿再贷款预计产生多大效力？面对外部关税压力，如何通 过投资消费对冲影响？ 就相关话题，南都湾财社记者专访中国首席经济学家论坛理事长、广开首席产研院院长连平。 连平表示，5000亿再贷款，瞄准住宿餐饮、文体娱乐、教育等市场化服务业及养老领域，兼具扩内需与 惠民生的双重功能，长期或额外推动社会消费品零售总额增长超10个百分点。他测算，若今年完成2500 亿元再贷款投放，叠加"以旧换新"政策，预计撬动居民消费超9000亿元。 面对美国关税施压等外部冲击，连平建议以扩大内需为"压舱石"，通过投资消费双轮驱动对冲外需收 缩，并依托完整产业链优势争取贸易谈判主动权。 连平。 5000亿再贷款，长期可能额外带动社零增长超10% 南都·湾财社：你如何看待央行此次专门针对服务消费和养老领域，创设再贷款工具的战略考量？ 连平：此次5000亿元额度的服务消费与养老再贷款，与此前已设立的400亿额度普惠养老专项再贷款的 投向领域有所不同。前者侧重投向对扩大内需有较大贡献的住宿餐饮、文体娱乐、教 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing market expectations and boosting confidence across various sectors, including monetary policy, capital markets, real estate, and the real economy [1][7][10] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a combination of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, releasing approximately 1 trillion RMB in long-term liquidity, which is expected to lower financing costs for financial institutions and enhance credit supply [1][2][10] - The report anticipates that the combination of these policies will positively impact market sentiment and support the development of the real economy, especially in light of improved China-U.S. trade relations [1][7] Group 2: Monetary Policy Measures - The PBOC has reduced the rates of structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, including the rates for various special structural tools and the personal housing provident fund, which directly lowers financing costs for agriculture, small enterprises, and homebuyers [2][10] - A new 500 billion RMB "service consumption and pension re-loan" initiative and a risk-sharing tool for technology innovation bonds have been established to provide targeted support for consumption and technological innovation [2][10] Group 3: Financial Regulation Initiatives - The financial regulatory authority has announced measures to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, focusing on supporting reasonable financing needs of quality real estate companies and projects [3][5] - The report indicates that insurance funds will play a crucial role in stabilizing the capital market, with plans to expand the scope of long-term investment trials and adjust risk factors for insurance company stock investments [5][10] Group 4: Market Outlook and Sector Focus - The report identifies three main investment themes: technology innovation, high dividend stocks, and policy benefits, suggesting that sectors such as technology hardware, internet technology, and quality consumer leaders are likely to benefit from supportive policies and demand growth [10][12] - The macro environment is expected to provide strong support for the Hong Kong stock market, with liquidity easing signals and internal demand policies being implemented to counter external uncertainties [7][10]