谭波律师从法律实务角度切入，明确指出非法期货活动脱离金融监管，常以期货投资为名行诈骗之实， 投资者一旦受骗往往面临难以挽回的资金损失。他系统梳理了甄别非法期货的关键方法，提示投资者重 点核查开户主体资质、营销方式合规性、官网真实性及收款账户属性，警惕所谓"老师"、"股神"等虚假 人设和承诺。谭律师强烈建议投资者保持理性、独立判断市场，转账前务必核实公司和人员资质，主动 远离非法平台，守护自身财产安全。 2024年7月15日下午，由国富期货有限公司主办的"识别和防范非法期货投资及期权基础知识讲 座"——"郑商所2024年度投资者教育专项活动"线上专场顺利举办。本次活动特邀上海天聿格律师事务 所谭波律师与浙江锭海金属材料有限公司产研高级经理张玉老师联袂主讲，围绕非法期货活动甄别与期 权市场基础应用，为投资者带来了一场兼具警示意义与实战价值的知识盛宴。 张玉老师则聚焦于期权市场的理论基础与实战策略，为投资者构建了系统化的认知框架。他首先阐释了 期权作为重要金融衍生工具的核心概念，包括看涨/看跌期权、到期日与执行价格等要素，强调其在风 险管理和市场深化中的关键作用。随后，他深入剖析了以希腊字母为代表的风险度量体系—— ...

Market Overview - On August 19, the A-share market experienced a slight decline, with a total transaction volume of 2.64 trillion yuan across the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. Over 2900 stocks rose, indicating rapid rotation of market hotspots [1] - Leading sectors included liquor, small metals, home appliances, and traditional Chinese medicine, while previously strong sectors such as insurance, military, securities, gaming, and pharmaceuticals saw the largest declines [1] Options Market Activity - The options market showed a decrease in transaction volume but an increase in open interest. The total options transaction volume for the day was 11.01 million contracts, down 23.60% from the previous trading day, while total open interest rose by 12.52% to 11.35 million contracts [1] - The trading volume for the SSE 50 ETF options decreased by 13.14%, but open interest increased by 13.67%, with a total of 1.76 million contracts traded and 1.94 million contracts in open interest [1] Specific Options Insights - The SSE 300 options also reflected a similar trend, with a significant decrease in transaction volume: down 25.40% for the SSE 300 ETF options and down 36.69% for the CFFEX SSE 300 index options. However, open interest increased by 11.35% for the SSE 300 ETF options [2] - The STAR 50 ETF options saw a decrease in transaction volume by 119.86 million contracts, while open interest increased by 22.74 million contracts, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [2] Volatility Analysis - The implied volatility of options opened high but declined throughout the day, with the SSE 50 ETF's at-the-money implied volatility at 15%. Historical volatility remained low, with the 30-day historical volatility at 8.87% for the SSE 50 ETF and 9.41% for the SSE 300 index [3] - Overall, the options market showed a comprehensive increase in call options, indicating a potential increase in market pressure in the short term, while put options showed little change [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - L2509 fluctuated weakly, closing at 7,287 yuan/ton. Supply: PE output increased by 0.14% week - on - week to 661,100 tons. Demand: The average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.4% week - on - week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 0.4%. Inventory: Producer inventory rose 19.09% to 515,400 tons, social inventory fell 1.22% to 568,700 tons, and total inventory pressure is not significant. Domestic PE's next round of intensive maintenance is expected to start in mid - August. Due to the leap June, domestic greenhouse film demand is delayed, extending the downstream off - season. Food and daily chemical packaging film orders are accumulating sporadically, mainly for rigid demand. Cost: OPEC+ production increase impact continues, IEA predicts intensified oil supply - demand imbalance, and the upcoming meeting between US and Russian leaders makes international oil prices fluctuate weakly. For L2509, pay attention to the support around 7,200 yuan/ton; for L2601, focus on the support around 7,300 yuan/ton and the resistance around 7,500 yuan/ton. The main contract is about to switch to L2601 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,343 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; the trading volume was 187,511 lots, and the open interest was 303,896 lots, an increase of 91,334 lots. The 9 - 1 spread was - 56. The buy orders of the top 20 futures positions were 322,688 lots, a decrease of 3,077 lots; the sell orders were 339,408 lots, and the net buy orders were - 16,720 lots, a decrease of 1,438 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,313.04 yuan/ton, and in East China was 7,398.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.24 yuan [2] 3.3 Basis - The basis was 26.87, with a change of 0.04 [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore was 60.31 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.77; CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 563.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5. The middle price of ethylene CFR in Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars/ton, and in Northeast Asia was 826 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 84.08% [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 49.3%, that of pipes was 29%, and that of agricultural film was 13.07% [2] 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 11.89%, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.63%, a decrease of 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options was 14.8%, an increase of 0.19% [2] 3.8 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, China's polyethylene output was 661,100 tons, an increase of 0.14% from the previous period. From August 1st to 7th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.4% from the previous period. As of August 6th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 515,400 tons, an increase of 19.09% from the previous period; as of August 8th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 568,700 tons, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous period [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and gradually recovering demand, with large fluctuations in lithium prices and a gradually improving industry outlook. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is above the 0 - axis and the red column is expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position trading with a slightly bullish trend and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 81,000 yuan/ton, up 4,040 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 128,116 hands, up 39,445 hands; the position of the main contract is 317,676 hands, down 3,030 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 2,000 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the warehouse receipt of GZFE is 18,829 hands/ton, up 2,386 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,500 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 6,500 yuan/ton, down 1,440 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 US dollars/ton, down 780 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 7,250 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,448 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 52%, up 5 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 5.15 million yuan/ton, up 0.13 million yuan; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 145,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 121,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 126,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.27 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 52%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,268,000 vehicles, down 2,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,329,000 vehicles, up 22,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 6,937,000 vehicles, up 1,993,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 205,000 vehicles, down 7,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1.06 million vehicles, up 455,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 68.59%, up 1.13 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 50.38%, up 1.21 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 119,052 contracts, up 24,224 contracts; the total put position is 52,618 contracts, up 21,765 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 44.2%, up 11.6617 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.46, up 0.0566 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Ningde Times' Jiaxiawo mining end has determined to stop production, and relevant people said there is no short - term resumption plan. The national subsidy is directly sent to towns, and the first national event of the "Thousands of Counties and Ten Thousand Towns" new energy vehicle consumption season of the Ministry of Commerce was launched in Xiaogan, Hubei on August 9, with a maximum subsidy of over 22,000 yuan. The "Big and Beautiful" bill stipulates that the US government will no longer provide tax credits for electric vehicles from September 30. In July, the sales volume of electric vehicles accounted for 9.1% of the total sales volume of all passenger vehicles in that month, setting a new high. In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, up from a 0.1% decline in the previous month, and was flat year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month, and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with the same decline as the previous month [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall**: The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the rapeseed - related industries, including futures, spot, upstream, industry, and downstream situations. It offers short - term trading suggestions for both rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil based on various factors such as supply, demand, and market trends [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Although near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and there is a seasonal increase in aquaculture demand, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is volatile, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the domestic market, the off - season of oil consumption, high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills, and abundant vegetable oil supply restrain prices. However, the decrease in the oil mill operating rate and less rapeseed purchase in the third quarter reduce supply pressure. The short - term trend is range - bound, and short - term participation is advised [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed all decreased. For example, the futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) was 9496 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan; the futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) was 669.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.3 Canadian dollars [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The month - to - month spreads of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased, and the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders also decreased. The main contract positions of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased. The rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts changed differently, with rapeseed oil unchanged and rapeseed meal increasing by 2753 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot prices of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/ton, the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu remained unchanged at 6000 yuan/ton, and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased by 60 yuan/ton. The oil - meal ratio decreased by 0.05 to 3.55 [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot prices of palm oil and soybean oil increased, and the spot price of soybean meal remained unchanged. The price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased, while the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production prediction increased slightly, while the domestic rapeseed import quantity decreased by 15.1 tons to 18.45 tons. The import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil increased by 4 tons to 15 tons, and the import quantity of rapeseed meal increased by 7.56 tons to 27.03 tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased by 5 tons to 10 tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed increased by 1.59 percentage points to 16.52% [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal and regional inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed. Coastal rapeseed oil inventory increased by 1.1 tons to 10.65 tons, and coastal rapeseed meal inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 2.7 tons. The inventories in different regions such as East China and Guangxi also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Production and Consumption**: The monthly production of feed and edible vegetable oil increased, and the monthly social retail sales of catering also increased [2]. Key Points - **Market Trends**: The rapeseed futures in ICE closed slightly lower due to the lukewarm vegetable oil market and Canadian rainfall. The good condition of US soybeans and the high inventory of domestic soybean meal suppressed the price of rapeseed meal. The change in the weather in Canada and the possible resumption of rapeseed trade between China and Australia affected the supply of rapeseed [2]. - **Suggestions**: For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, short - term participation is recommended due to the complex market situation and large price fluctuations [2]. - **Focus**: It is necessary to focus on the rapeseed operating rate and the inventories of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions released by Myagric on Monday, as well as the trends of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

Market Performance - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.45%, the Shenzhen Index increasing by 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index gaining 0.66% by the end of the trading day [1] Options Market Activity - Overall trading activity in the options market decreased, while open interest continued to grow. Specific trading volumes and open interest for various ETFs were reported, including: - Shanghai 50 ETF options: trading volume of 702,198 contracts, open interest of 1,453,965 contracts, and a trading value of 258 million yuan - CSI 300 ETF options: trading volume of 680,224 contracts, open interest of 1,344,430 contracts, and a trading value of 364 million yuan - CSI 500 ETF options: trading volume of 1,310,638 contracts, open interest of 1,294,242 contracts, and a trading value of 1.15 billion yuan - Other ETFs also showed significant trading volumes and open interest [2] Implied Volatility - Implied volatility for options increased across the board but remained at relatively low levels. The weighted implied volatility for various ETFs was reported as follows: - Shanghai 50 ETF options: 0.1427 - CSI 300 ETF options: 0.1509 - CSI 500 ETF options: 0.1543 - Other ETFs had higher implied volatilities, with the highest being 0.2588 for the E Fund Sci-Tech 50 ETF options [3] Market Sentiment and Strategy - The A-share market remains strong, with a neutral to slightly positive market sentiment. Investors are encouraged to consider buying strategies, as the market is expected to continue rising. Strategies such as buying on dips or rolling out of put options are recommended for those holding stocks to enhance returns [4]

Financial Engineering - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced fluctuations from July 28 to August 1, closing at 3559.95 with a decrease in trading volume compared to the previous week [2] - The Shenzhen Composite Index also saw a decline, with a drop of 1.58% and a closing value of 10991.32, alongside reduced trading volume [2] ETF Performance - The 50ETF opened at 2.917 and closed at 2.876, reflecting a decrease of 0.040 or 1.37%, with a trading volume of 10.865 billion [3] - The Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF opened at 4.203 and closed at 4.133, down by 0.070 or 1.67%, with a trading volume of 17.173 billion [3] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF opened at 6.365 and closed at 6.287, showing a decrease of 0.078 or 1.23%, with a trading volume of 6.109 billion [3] Options Market - From July 28 to August 1, the average daily trading volume of 50ETF options decreased compared to the previous week, while total open interest increased, with a PCR of 0.84, down 0.14 from the previous week [4] - The Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF options also saw a decrease in average daily trading volume, with total open interest increasing and a PCR of 0.89, down 0.14 [4] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF options experienced a reduction in average daily trading volume, with total open interest increasing and a PCR of 1.07, up 0.06 [4] Volatility Analysis - Short-term volatility has slightly increased, with monthly volatility trending upwards, while implied volatility has been declining throughout the week [5] - The implied volatility levels for the 50ETF and 300ETF have shown a downward trend, indicating increased market expectations for future volatility [5] Investment Recommendations - The market has shown varying degrees of decline, with all three options benchmarks dropping over 1%, and the PCR ratios indicating a decrease for the 50ETF and 300ETF, while the put option ratio for the 500ETF has risen [6] - Given the current market conditions and the shift in implied volatility curves, a cautious stance is recommended for small-cap growth stocks, while larger blue-chip stocks like the 50ETF and 300ETF may be more favorable [6]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Guangzhou Futures Exchange regarding the solicitation of opinions for platinum and palladium futures and options contracts aims to provide effective risk management tools for related industries, promoting high-quality development of the industrial chain [2][10]. Summary by Sections Announcement Details - The solicitation includes multiple documents such as the draft contracts for platinum and palladium futures and options, along with business rules [3]. - The trading codes for platinum and palladium futures are PT and PD, respectively, with a trading unit of 1000 grams per contract and a minimum price fluctuation of 0.05 yuan per gram [3]. Contract Specifications - The contract months are set for February, April, June, August, October, and December, with the last trading day being the 10th trading day of the contract month and the last delivery day being the third trading day after the last trading day [4]. - The delivery method is physical delivery, with a delivery unit of 1000 grams (net weight) [4]. Delivery and Risk Control - The delivery methods for platinum and palladium futures will follow established practices in the futures market, including spot-to-futures, rolling delivery, and one-time delivery [5]. - A brand delivery system will be implemented, requiring registered brands for delivery products, with specific procedures for inventory management [5]. Position Limits - For platinum contracts, if the open interest is less than or equal to 6000 lots, the position limit for a single client is 600 lots; if greater, the limit is 10% of the open interest [6]. - For palladium contracts, if the open interest is less than or equal to 3000 lots, the position limit is 300 lots; if greater, the limit is also 10% of the open interest [6]. Market Context - The demand for platinum and palladium is increasing due to their roles in green industries, particularly in automotive catalytic converters and new energy sectors [7]. - The supply-demand relationship for platinum and palladium is tightening, leading to increased price volatility and a growing need for hedging tools [8]. Price Trends - Year-to-date, platinum prices have shown a significant upward trend, surpassing $1400 per ounce, marking a rise of over 50% this year, while palladium prices have increased by over 30% [9]. - The global supply of platinum has remained stable at around 220-230 tons, while palladium supply is around 280-300 tons, with supply constraints influenced by geopolitical issues and energy shortages [9]. Future Developments - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange plans to refine the contracts and rules based on feedback to ensure they align with industry needs and expedite the launch of platinum and palladium products [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the high-quality rate of US soybeans is at a high level in the same period, with strong expectations of a bumper harvest. Domestically, the high oil - mill operating rate and the accumulation of soybean meal inventory suppress the price of the rapeseed meal market. The future decline in pig inventory and the promotion of soybean meal reduction substitution also reduce demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases supports the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand is offset by the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The market fluctuates greatly, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, high - frequency data shows that palm oil production increases while exports decline, which restricts palm oil prices. However, increased exports from Indonesia, low inventory, and positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with ample supply and high inventory pressure in rapeseed oil mills, which restricts prices. But the reduction in the oil - mill operating rate and fewer third - quarter rapeseed purchases ease supply - side pressure. The short - term volatility of rapeseed oil has increased [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9510 yuan/ton, down 111 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2699 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 696.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.9 Canadian dollars [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread is 61 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the rapeseed meal 9 - 1 spread is 288 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 194,637 lots, down 20,837 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal is 442,990 lots, down 3,790 lots [2]. - Top 20 net long positions: The top 20 net long positions of rapeseed oil are 16,891 lots, down 7,830 lots; the top 20 net long positions of rapeseed meal are 29,067 lots, down 6,136 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 3,487 sheets, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal is 1,200 sheets, an increase of 1,200 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,680 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the average spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,745 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Import costs: The import cost of rapeseed is 4,942.03 yuan/ton, down 33.88 yuan [2]. - Oil - meal ratio: The oil - meal ratio is 3.61, down 0.08 [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 59 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 89 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,350 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,920 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,890 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price spreads: The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,290 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 690 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global production: The predicted annual global rapeseed production is 89.77 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted rapeseed production is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total monthly rapeseed import quantity is 18.45 tons, down 15.1 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 tons, an increase of 10 tons; the monthly import quantity of rapeseed meal is 28.79 tons, an increase of 4.13 tons [2]. - Mill inventories: The total weekly rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 15 tons, down 5 tons [2]. - Operating rates: The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 14.93%, down 0.79 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Regional inventories: The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 9.55 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 1.9 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 56.27 tons, down 2.18 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 33.41 tons, down 1.72 tons. The weekly rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 5.55 tons, down 0.05 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 26.1 tons, down 0.9 tons [2]. - Weekly提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.27 tons, an increase of 0.36 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 3.43 tons, an increase of 1.11 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly feed production is 2,762.1 tons, an increase of 98.1 tons; the monthly edible vegetable oil production is 440.4 tons, down 87 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4,707.6 billion yuan, an increase of 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 24.6%, up 0.49 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 24.61%, up 0.5 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.31%, down 1.48 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.31%, down 1.48 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 18.97%, up 0.72 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 17.27%, up 0.21 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.66%, up 0.75 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.41%, down 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 30, ICE rapeseed futures fell due to the weakening of CBOT soybean oil futures and good weather in western Canada. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed down 5.70 Canadian dollars at 696.60 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January rapeseed futures closed down 5.00 Canadian dollars at 707.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, 68% in the previous week, and 67% in the same period last year [2].

证监许可【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 2025年7月28日 星期一 摘要： 合成橡胶期货及期权自2023年7月28日在上海期货交易所上市，至今已走过两周年。借此机会，本文梳理合成橡胶期货（期权）上市两周年的交易情况与 行情走势，并分析合成橡胶期货月间结构与期权持仓分布特点。 回顾这两年，从上市意义来看，合成橡胶期货及期权功能发挥良好，并与期货市场已有的能源化工品种形成联动，更好地服务产业链上下游企业，以及为 广大投资者提供更多元化的投资选择。从市场运行情况来看，不难发现合成橡胶期货是一个极具"爆发力"的期货品种——短短两年时间里，合成橡胶期货 主力合约就有两次涨停和一次跌停行情，且单日成交量一度超越活跃品种天然橡胶。这表明上下游企业和投资者对其的参与和认可程度在不断提高。另 外，我们还观察到：从月间结构来看，合成橡胶期货以正基差与近月升水结构为主，这与生产企业的套保行为相关；从期权持仓分布来看，基于虚值期 权"买方成本低、卖方胜率高"的特点，虚值期权持仓量远高于实值期权。 一、上市意义 合成橡胶作为三大合成材料之一，用途极为广泛，在国民经济中起到重要作用，同时合成橡胶行业也是一个风险度较高 ...