Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Recently, the domestic methanol production has decreased slightly as the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output from restored capacity. Traditional downstream demand is average, and the procurement of olefins in production areas has been postponed. Low freight rates have weakened the enthusiasm for logistics transportation, leading to an increase in domestic methanol enterprise inventories last week. [3] - Due to various factors, the unloading of foreign vessels at ports has fallen short of expectations, resulting in a decrease in methanol port inventories last week. The inventory in East China has decreased as提货 performance is good, while the inventory in South China has increased due to both imported and domestic cargo unloading. The expected methanol imports in October remain sufficient, and port inventories may still rise. [3] - Last week, the olefin industry's operating rate was basically stable and remained at a high level. There are no planned adjustments in the short - term, and the operating rate is expected to remain high. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2340 yuan/ton in the short term. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2268 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6 yuan/ton. [3] - The position volume of the main methanol contract is 1059019 lots, a decrease of 12237 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 138689 lots. [3] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 14092, a decrease of 810. [3] 3.2现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton. [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 230 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton. [3] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 261 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 325 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 270 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 64 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.42 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.42 US dollars/million British thermal units. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 99.7 tons (weekly), a decrease of 8.35 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 49.44 tons (weekly), an increase of 3.17 tons. [3] - The import profit of methanol is - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 142.69 tons, a decrease of 33.29 tons. [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 359900 tons (weekly), an increase of 20500 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 87.42%, a decrease of 2.17%. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 40.88% (weekly), an increase of 6.77%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.92% (weekly), an increase of 0.94%. [3] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 72.52% (weekly), a decrease of 10.44%; the operating rate of MTBE is 63.12% (weekly), a decrease of 1%. [3] - The operating rate of olefins is 92.39% (weekly), a decrease of 0.8%; the on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1021 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 17.84% (daily), a decrease of 0.3%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.3% (daily), a decrease of 0.05%. [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.82% (daily), an increase of 1.1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.82% (daily), an increase of 1.1%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of October 15, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.99 tons, an increase of 2.05 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 6.04%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 22.89 tons, an increase of 11.37 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 98.64%. [3] - As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 149.14 tons, a decrease of 5.18 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 8.35 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 3.17 tons. [3] - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 94.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01%. [3]

Market Overview - The crypto market experienced a significant sell-off, with several altcoins facing double-digit declines while BTC and ETH approached critical support levels [1] - This sell-off is seen as a continuation of a previous $500 billion market downturn, prompting traders to exercise caution to avoid further liquidations [1] Derivatives Positioning - The BTC futures market is stabilizing, with Open Interest around $25 billion and a 3-month annualized basis in the 5-6% range [3] - A divergence in funding rates indicates mixed market sentiment, with Binance and OKX showing negative funding rates of -2% to -3%, suggesting bearish conviction among traders [3] - The BTC options market displays strong bullish signals, with a balanced 24-hour Put/Call Volume and a 1-week 25 Delta Skew spiking to 12.62%, indicating demand for call options [3] Liquidation Data - Coinglass data reports $415 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with a 70-30 split between longs and shorts, highlighting significant market activity [3] - Major liquidations included ETH ($115 million), BTC ($80 million), and others ($43 million), with a key liquidation level at $110,009 to monitor [3] Altcoin Performance - Altcoins faced severe declines, with Bittensor (TAO), aster (ASTER), and lido (LDO) dropping between 12% and 13% in 24 hours, while the "altcoin season" index fell to 27/100, its lowest in over three months [3] - Despite the overall bearish sentiment, tron (TRX) showed resilience, rising from $0.312 to $0.322, indicating potential recovery [3] Market Catalysts - The recent sell-off is attributed to distribution from long-term Bitcoin holders, creating heavy sell pressure amid low demand [3] - Altcoins are negatively impacted by Bitcoin's downturn, with low liquidity levels exacerbating price declines during sell-offs [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of V2601 are bearish, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with the range estimated to be between 4,620 - 4,710 yuan/ton [2]. - The inventory is expected to maintain a high - level accumulation trend. The demand growth is restricted by the weak domestic real - estate market, and the export market may remain on the sidelines due to the impact of the Indian anti - dumping tax [2]. - The calcium carbide process is in deep loss, and chlor - alkali enterprises use "alkali to make up for chlorine". However, the calcium carbide supply is abundant and the price is weak, so the cost - side support is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of PVC futures is 4,677 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the trading volume is 632,849 lots, down 103,795 lots; the open interest is 1,271,985 lots, up 17,706 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 168,866 lots, down 13,513 lots [3]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC in East and South China have declined. The domestic and international PVC prices in some regions remain unchanged, and the basis is - 97 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The price of calcium carbide in the Northwest has decreased by 5 yuan/ton, while the prices in other regions remain unchanged. The prices of VCM in CFR Far East and Southeast Asia have increased, while the prices of EDC remain unchanged [3]. - **Industrial Situation**: The weekly operating rate of PVC is 82.63%, up 3.66 percentage points. The social inventory of PVC is 55.7 tons, up 1.93 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The real - estate related indicators show a mixed trend. The new housing construction area and real - estate development investment have increased, while the national real - estate prosperity index has decreased [3]. - **Option Market**: The historical volatility of PVC has decreased, while the implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options has increased [3]. b. Industry News - From October 4th to 10th, the utilization rate of China's PVC production capacity was 82.63%, up 1.21% from the previous period [3]. - From October 4th to 10th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 8.55% to 39.21%, with the pipe operating rate down 7.6% to 32.83% and the profile operating rate down 23.04% to 15.87% [3]. - As of October 9th, the social inventory of PVC was 103.63 tons, up 5.58% from the previous week [3]. - From October 4th to 10th, the cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 168 yuan/ton to 5,126 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 5,493 yuan/ton. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 153 yuan/ton to - 622 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 538 yuan/ton [3].

Market Overview - Bitcoin is currently trading at $111,000, maintaining a critical support level at $110,000 after a significant drop from $121,000, resulting in a loss of $500 billion in overall crypto market capitalization [1] - Altcoins have experienced severe declines, with plasma (XPL) down 58% in a week, while FET, OP, and ETHFI have all lost over 35% of their value [1] Derivatives Positioning - The BTC futures market shows signs of stabilization with open interest around $25.5 billion, indicating no major changes following the weekend's volatility [3] - The 3-month annualized basis has decreased to a range of 5-6%, reflecting a cooling of bullish sentiment [3] - Funding rates exhibit divergence, with Bybit's rate at -5% and Hyperliquid's at 10%, indicating mixed market sentiment [3] Options Market Dynamics - The BTC options market is experiencing bullish acceleration, with a balanced 24-hour Put/Call Volume at a 50-50 split, a shift from previous call dominance [3] - The 1-week 25 Delta Skew has spiked to 12.62%, indicating a substantial premium for call options, suggesting traders are positioning for potential price increases [3] Liquidation Data - Coinglass reports $627 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with a 70-30 split between longs and shorts, highlighting significant market activity [3] - Major liquidations include ETH at $185 million, BTC at $125 million, and others at $69 million [3] - The Binance liquidation heatmap identifies $110,600 as a critical liquidation level to monitor [3] Plasma XPL Analysis - Plasma XPL has fallen 13.5% on Tuesday, totaling a 52% decline since its late September debut, raising concerns over its tokenomics and large ecosystem allocations [3] - The circulating supply is 1.8 billion out of a total of 10 billion, indicating potential sell pressure as vested tokens unlock [3] - Tokens were sold at $0.05 during the public round, with current prices around $0.41, leaving ICO buyers in profit while later investors face losses [3] - Analysts predict continued downward pressure as early investor tokens become liquid, with a major unlock expected in Q2 of 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Investors in the US stock market are preparing for volatility as the earnings season approaches, with expected average stock price fluctuations of 4.7% for S&P 500 companies following earnings announcements, similar to the highest levels seen since 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Volatility - The rise in option prices indicates risks facing the US bull market, particularly after a drop in the S&P 500 due to Trump's threats of increased tariffs on China [1] - The upcoming earnings season is crucial in determining whether the current themes, particularly around AI and tech stocks, will continue to dominate [4] - Investors expect individual stock news to drive recent market volatility, with rising option prices reflecting this anticipation [7] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Non-essential consumer goods, technology, and healthcare sectors are projected to experience the largest fluctuations this quarter, with non-essential consumer goods expected to see the highest volatility since 2020 [9] - The implied volatility of S&P 500 components has increased, likely due to focus on AI and major tech companies, indicating a potential for significant stock price movements post-earnings [11] Group 3: Macro Factors and Market Dynamics - The US government shutdown is seen as a macro catalyst absence, limiting position adjustments in single-stock options trading [6] - Low correlation among individual stocks has contributed to smaller index fluctuations, although macro shocks like Trump's tariff threats may increase correlations again [9] - The significant volatility in stocks like Oracle and AMD has led the options market to reassess the value of other individual stocks, highlighting the market's strong influence [14]

Group 1 - The global cryptocurrency market experienced a massive sell-off, with Bitcoin dropping from $122,000 to a low of $101,500, marking a maximum decline of 17%, while Ethereum, Dogecoin, and SOL saw declines exceeding 20% [1] - Over the past 24 hours, more than $19 billion in cryptocurrency contracts were liquidated, affecting 1.62 million traders, with 90% of liquidations being long positions [1] - Binance faced temporary outages due to the volatility, but has since restored all services and is monitoring the situation closely [1] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency market is under pressure due to U.S. President Trump's threats regarding tariffs and the ongoing government shutdown, which has intensified market uncertainty [2] - The failure of a Republican proposal to end the government shutdown has contributed to the negative sentiment in the market [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is currently at 95%, with an 80% chance of another cut in December, indicating a potential impact on macroeconomic conditions affecting Bitcoin's price [2] Group 3 - Market uncertainty has led to a significant drop in risk assets, with increased demand for downside protection in the derivatives market, suggesting that options market dynamics may influence the underlying market prices more than ever [3]

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline due to threats of tariffs from Trump, marking the largest sell-off since at least early April of this year [1] - Bitcoin saw a daily drop of 13.5%, falling below the $110,000 mark to a low of $105,930, before narrowing its losses to around $113,000 later [1] - Smaller and less liquid tokens were hit harder, with Ethereum dropping over 17% and Ripple and Dogecoin plummeting more than 30% [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin reached a historical high of over $126,250 earlier in the week, driven by investor interest amid government shutdown concerns, leading to a "devaluation trade" in Bitcoin and gold [1] - The forced liquidation across the cryptocurrency market surged to $19.141 billion, marking the largest wave of forced liquidations since early April, affecting 1,621,284 individuals [2] - The largest single liquidation occurred on the Hyperliquid platform for the ETH-USDT trading pair, valued at $203 million [2] Group 3 - Bitcoin liquidations amounted to $5.317 billion, while Ethereum liquidations were $4.378 billion, with other notable liquidations including SOL at $1.995 billion and XRP at $0.699 billion [3] - CME Bitcoin futures fell by 5.94% to below $116,000, with a cumulative decline of 7.37% for the week [3] - CME Ethereum futures dropped 11.29% to $3,879, with a total weekly decline of 14.80% [3]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn due to threats of tariffs from Trump, marking the largest sell-off since at least early April of this year [1] - Bitcoin reached a historic high of over $126,250 earlier in the week, driven by investor interest amid government shutdown concerns [1] - Smaller and less liquid tokens were hit harder, with Ethereum dropping over 17% and Ripple and Dogecoin plummeting over 30% [1] Market Performance - Bitcoin's price was reported at $113,312.61, reflecting a 6.81% decline over 24 hours and a 7.50% drop over the week [2] - Ethereum's price fell to $3,903.84, showing a 10.59% decrease in 24 hours and a 13.90% decline over the week [2] - The total liquidation in the crypto market reached approximately $10 billion in the past 24 hours, marking the largest forced liquidation wave since early April [2] Futures Market - CME Bitcoin futures saw a drop of 5.94% to below $116,000, with a weekly decline of 7.37% [3] - CME Ethereum futures fell by 11.29% to $3,879, with a cumulative drop of 14.80% for the week [3] - Increased demand for downside protection in the derivatives market indicates heightened market uncertainty [3]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn influenced by Trump's tariff threats, marking the largest sell-off since early April 2023, with Bitcoin dropping to around $105,930, a decline of 13.5% in a single day [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Bitcoin reached a historical high of over $126,250 earlier in the week before falling to approximately $113,312.61, reflecting a 6.81% decline over 24 hours and a 7.50% drop over the week [2]. - Ethereum's price fell to $3,903.84, with a 10.59% decrease in the last 24 hours and a 13.90% decline over the week [2]. - Smaller and less liquid tokens faced even greater losses, with Ethereum dropping over 17%, and Ripple and Dogecoin plummeting more than 30% [1]. Group 2: Futures and Derivatives - CME Bitcoin futures saw a drop of 5.94% to below $116,000, with a cumulative decline of 7.37% for the week [3]. - CME Ethereum futures experienced a significant drop of 11.29%, closing at $3,879, with a total weekly decline of 14.80% [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The uncertainty in the market has led to a sharp decline in risk assets, with increased demand for downside protection in the derivatives market [4]. - The dynamics of the options market are believed to have a more substantial impact on the price movements of the underlying assets than ever before [4].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant sell-off, marking the largest decline since at least early April this year, with Bitcoin dropping to around $105,930 after reaching a record high of over $126,250 earlier in the week [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Bitcoin saw a daily decline of 13.5%, falling below the $110,000 mark, and later trading around $113,312.61, reflecting a 6.81% drop over 24 hours [1][5]. - Ethereum experienced a drop of over 17%, while Ripple and Dogecoin fell by more than 30% [4][5]. - Approximately $10 billion in crypto positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, indicating a significant forced liquidation wave [6]. Group 2: Market Influences - The sell-off was influenced by threats of tariffs from former President Trump, which exacerbated the decline in the cryptocurrency market and led to a broader sell-off in U.S. stocks [3][7]. - The uncertainty in the market has increased demand for downside protection in the derivatives market, suggesting that options market dynamics may have a greater impact on the underlying market prices than before [7]. Group 3: Trading Dynamics - The CME Bitcoin futures contract fell by 5.94% to below $116,000, with a cumulative decline of 7.37% for the week [6]. - The trading environment shifted dramatically on Friday, breaking a period of relative stability around $123,000 [6].