Report Overview - Report Title: "光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报" - Date: January 7, 2026 - Report Type: Daily monitoring report on iron ore basis and spreads 1. Contract Spreads - **Price Changes**: I05 closed at 801.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 780.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan; I01 closed at 826.0 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan [3]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of I05 - I09 was 21.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan; I09 - I01 was -46.0 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan; I01 - I05 was 25.0 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan [3]. 2. Basis 2.1 Basis Data - **Price and Basis Changes**: For various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines (卡粉), BRBF, Newman fines, etc., prices and basis values changed. For example, Carajás fines' price increased by 6.0 yuan to 901 yuan, and its basis increased by 3 to 60 [5]. 2.2 Basis Charts - **Chart Information**: There are multiple charts showing the basis of different iron ore types including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, and domestic ores over time from April 2025 to December 2025 [7][8][9]. 3. Variety Spreads 3.1 Variety Spread Data - **Spread Changes**: For example, the spread of PB lump - PB fines was 70.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; PB fines - mixed fines was 63.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan [12]. 3.2 and 3.3 Variety Spread Charts - **Chart Information**: There are numerous charts presenting different variety spreads such as lump - powder spreads, high - medium grade powder spreads, medium - low grade powder spreads, etc., with data from relevant sources [15][16][18]. 4. Contract and Rule Adjustments - **New Deliverable Varieties**: Four new deliverable varieties (本钢精粉, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate) were added to the I2202 contract with a brand premium of 0 [10]. - **Brand Premium Adjustment**: Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest are 0 for new rules [10]. - **Quality Difference and Premium Adjustment**: The allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators was adjusted, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium (X) was introduced [10]. - **New Deliverable Brands**: Four new deliverable brands (太钢精粉, 马钢精粉, 五矿标准粉, SP10粉) were added with a brand premium of 0 for I2312 and subsequent contracts [10]. 5. Research Team - **Team Members**: The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and relevant qualifications [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - This is a futures research report from Baocheng Futures, presenting daily arbitrage data for various futures varieties on January 6, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The report shows the basis of power coal from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, with the basis on January 5, 2026, being - 116.4 yuan/ton. The spreads between May - January, September - January, and September - May contracts are all 0.0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt, data such as basis, ratio, and other indicators are presented from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026. For example, on January 5, 2026, the basis of INE crude oil is 26.43 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are provided. For instance, on January 5, 2026, the basis of rubber is - 240 yuan/ton [8]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads between May - January, September - January, and September - May contracts of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the May - January spread of rubber is 35 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are presented. On January 5, 2026, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 1736 yuan/ton [9]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are shown. On January 5, 2026, the basis of rebar is 166.0 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads between May - January, September(10) - January, and September(10) - May contracts of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. The May - January spread of rebar is 23.0 yuan/ton [18]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are presented. On January 5, 2026, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 3.91 [18]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are given. On January 5, 2026, the basis of copper is - 770 yuan/ton [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data such as LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on January 5, 2026, are presented. For example, the LME premium of copper is 38.60, and the import profit/loss is (1543.51) [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans - 1, soybeans - 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are provided. On January 5, 2026, the basis of soybeans - 1 is - 163 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads between May - January, September - January, and September - May contracts of soybeans - 1, soybeans - 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. The May - January spread of soybeans - 1 is 56 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads of soybeans - 1/corn, soybeans - 2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are presented. On January 5, 2026, the soybeans - 1/corn ratio is 1.92 [37]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are shown. On January 5, 2026, the basis of CSI 300 is 20.75 [48]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. The next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 10.6 [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. Core Views Futures Index Spread - The report presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and changes compared to the previous day of various futures index spreads, including spot-futures spreads, inter - delivery spreads, and cross - variety ratios [1]. Bond Futures Basis and Spread - It shows the basis, inter - delivery spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different bond futures, along with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Precious Metals - Gold's price has adjusted, and the future market may focus on US economic data's impact on Fed policies and geopolitical situations in South America. Platinum and palladium's trends may stabilize, with platinum's price center rising. Palladium follows, and the platinum - palladium ratio may rise for potential arbitrage. Silver may face short - term callback risks due to index rebalancing, and it's recommended to maintain a light - long position and use options to lock in profits [3]. Container Shipping Industry - The settlement price indices of container shipping routes have shown different degrees of increase. Futures prices of container shipping contracts have minor fluctuations, and the basis of the main contract has changed. Fundamental data such as global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, and overseas economic data are also presented [5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Futures Index Spread - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: F spot - futures spread is - 30.14, H is - 6.13, IC is - 102.77, and IM is - 159.08, with different historical quantiles and changes compared to the previous day [1]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Different inter - delivery spreads for various futures, like F, H, IC, and IM, show different values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., have their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. Bond Futures Basis and Spread - **Basis**: TS basis is - 0.0070, TF is 1.7497, T is 0.1067, and TL is 0.0182, with corresponding changes and historical quantiles [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: For different bond futures, inter - delivery spreads between different quarters have their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Spreads like TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are presented with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Precious Metals - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: AU2602 contract closed at 977.56 yuan/g, down 0.74%; AG2602 at 17074 yuan/kg, down 5.88%; PT2606 at 527.25 yuan/g, down 10.61%; PD2606 at 425.20 yuan/g, down 4.97% [3]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold closed at 4341.90 dollars/ounce, up 0.23%; COMEX silver at 72.27 dollars/ounce, up 1.81%; NYMEX platinum at 2161.80 dollars/ounce, up 4.43%; NYMEX palladium at 1695.50 dollars/ounce, up 2.08% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold at 4332.51 dollars/ounce, up 0.33%; London silver at 72.82 dollars/ounce, up 1.74%; spot platinum at 2132.00 dollars/ounce, down 4.22%; spot palladium at 1641.00 dollars/ounce, down 1.14%. Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D at 974.39 yuan/g, down 0.80%; silver T + D at 17059 yuan/kg, down 5.85%; platinum 9995 at 512 yuan/g, down 9.49% [3]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 3.17, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract is - 15, etc., with their changes and historical quantiles [3]. - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver is 60.08, down 1.56%; SHFE gold/silver is 57.25, up 5.46%, etc. [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.19%, up 0.2%; 2 - year is 3.47%, unchanged; 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield is 1.94%, up 0.5%. Dollar index is 98.46, up 0.21%; on - shore RMB exchange rate is 6.9699, down 0.15% [3]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: SHFE gold inventory is 97704 kg, unchanged; SHFE silver inventory is 691638 kg, down 8.48%; COMEX gold inventory is 36402970 ounces, up 0.41%; COMEX silver inventory is 449773368 ounces, up 0.08%. SPDR gold ETF holdings are 1065 tons, down 0.51%; SLV silver ETF holdings are 16444 tons, unchanged [3]. Container Shipping Industry - **Container Shipping Indices**: SCFIS (European route) is 1742.64 points, up 9.66%; SCFIS (US West route) is 1301.41 points, up 36.69%. SCFI composite index is 1552.92 points, up 3.08%; SCFI (Europe) is 1533 dollars/TEU, down 0.33%; SCFI (US West) is 1992 dollars/FEU, up 11.91%; SCFI (US East) is 2846 dollars/FEU, up 7.32% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 (main) is 1801.3 points, up 0.35%; EC2604 is 1166.0 points, up 0.50%; EC2506 is 1367.9 points, down 0.15%; EC2508 is 1500.0 points, down 0.01%; EC2510 is 1060.0 points, up 0.38%; EC2512 is 1297.0 points, down 0.84%. The basis of the main contract is - 58.7, down 11.82% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3369.00 million TEU, unchanged. Shanghai port on - time rate is 40.00%, down 18.50%; port calls in Shanghai are 345.00, up 5.83%. Monthly export amount is 3303.51 billion dollars, up 8.23%. Eurozone composite PMI is 51.90 points, down 1.70%; EU consumer confidence index is - 13.70, down 0.74%; US manufacturing PMI is 48.20, down 1.03%. G7 group's OECD composite leading indicator is 100.57 points, up 0.06% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents. Core Views of the Reports 1. **Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report** - Provides detailed data on stock index futures price differences including current values, historical quantiles, and changes from the previous day for various contracts and spreads [1]. 2. **Bond Futures Spread Daily Report** - Presents data on bond futures basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads, including values, historical quantiles, and changes from the previous trading day [2]. 3. **Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report** - Gold prices dropped sharply with the rapid exit of funds. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Long - term investors can wait for a pullback. Silver prices are expected to rise in the long run. Platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term, but there are short - term price fluctuations [3]. 4. **Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report** - Shipping indices such as SCFIS and SCFI showed an upward trend. Futures prices and basis had different changes, and fundamental data on supply, trade, and overseas economies were presented [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. **Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report** - **Price Differences**: Data on F, H, IC, IM futures - spot spreads and various inter - period spreads are provided, along with their historical quantiles and changes from the previous day [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios of CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are presented, including current values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. 2. **Bond Futures Spread Daily Report** - **Basis**: Basis data for TS, TF, T, TL are provided, including values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for different contracts of TS, TF, T, TL are presented, along with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T are provided, including values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. 3. **Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report** - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of London gold, silver, platinum, and domestic precious metals are provided, including changes and percentage changes [3]. - **Basis**: Basis data for gold and silver are presented, including current and previous values, changes, and historical quantiles [3]. - **Ratios**: Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver, NYMEX platinum/palladium are provided, including changes and percentage changes [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Data on 10 - year US Treasury yields, 2 - year US Treasury yields, etc. are presented, including changes and percentage changes [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventory data of Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX, and ETF positions are provided, including changes and percentage changes [3]. 4. **Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report** - **Shipping Indices**: SCFIS and SCFI indices for different routes are presented, including changes and percentage changes [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices and basis data for different contracts are provided, including changes and percentage changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, overseas economic indicators, and OECD leading indicators are presented, including changes and percentage changes [5].

Report Overview - The report is a daily spread report for all varieties on December 30, 2025, providing price information on various commodities and financial futures [3] Commodity and Futures Information Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Spot price 5676, futures price 5628, basis -48, basis rate -0.85%, historical quantile 50.50% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Spot price 5862, futures price 5860, basis 2, basis rate 0.03%, historical quantile 24.60% [1] - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Spot price 3300, futures price 3280, basis 20, basis rate 0.61%, historical quantile 67.20% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Spot price 3287, futures price 3130, basis 157, basis rate 5.02%, historical quantile 15.30% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Spot price 858, futures price 797, basis 61, basis rate 7.69%, historical quantile 48.00% [1] - **Coke (J2605)**: Spot price 1713, futures price 1681, basis 32, basis rate 1.91%, historical quantile 79.17% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Spot price 1156, futures price 1088, basis 68, basis rate 6.25%, historical quantile 42.50% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2602)**: Spot price 100740, futures price 99790, basis 950, basis rate 0.95%, historical quantile 99.79% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2602)**: Spot price 22570, futures price 22490, basis 80, basis rate 0.36%, historical quantile 32.91% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2602)**: Spot price 23370, futures price 23255, basis 115, basis rate 0.49%, historical quantile 74.37% [1] - **Tin (SN2602)**: Spot price 343500, futures price 334590, basis 8910, basis rate 2.66%, historical quantile 99.37% [1] - **Nickel (NI2602)**: Spot price 128600, futures price 125710, basis 2890, basis rate 2.30%, historical quantile 99.58% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2602)**: Spot price 13220, futures price 12910, basis 310, basis rate 2.40%, historical quantile 56.65% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Spot price 118820, futures price 118000, basis 820, basis rate 0.69%, historical quantile 43.83% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2605)**: Spot price 9250, futures price 8715, basis 535, basis rate 6.14%, historical quantile 32.79% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2602)**: Spot price 1007.2, futures price 1004.9, basis 2.3, basis rate 0.23%, historical quantile 38.00% [1] - **Silver (AG2602)**: Spot price 18797.0, futures price 18205.0, basis 592.0, basis rate 3.25%, historical quantile 99.50% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Spot price 3060, futures price 2774.0, basis 286.0, basis rate 10.31%, historical quantile 68.50% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2605)**: Spot price 8250, futures price 7818.0, basis 432.0, basis rate 5.53%, historical quantile 74.30% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Spot price 8512.0, futures price 8510, basis 2.0, basis rate 0.02%, historical quantile 25.90% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: Spot price 2570, futures price 2387.0, basis 183.0, basis rate 7.67%, historical quantile 81.50% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (OI605)**: Spot price 9750, futures price 9040.0, basis 710.0, basis rate 7.85%, historical quantile 94.00% [1] - **Corn (C2603)**: Spot price 2330, futures price 2249.0, basis 81.0, basis rate 3.60%, historical quantile 82.20% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2603)**: Spot price 2620, futures price 2535.0, basis 85.0, basis rate 3.35%, historical quantile 39.60% [1] - **Live Pigs (H2603)**: Spot price 12450, futures price 11715.0, basis 735.0, basis rate 6.27%, historical quantile 69.50% [1] - **Eggs (JD2602)**: Spot price 2941.0, futures price 2910, basis - 31.0, basis rate - 1.05%, historical quantile 36.60% [1] - **Cotton (CF605)**: Spot price 15385, futures price 14435.0, basis 950.0, basis rate 6.58%, historical quantile 48.70% [1] - **Sugar (SR605)**: Spot price 5420, futures price 5253.0, basis 167.0, basis rate 3.18%, historical quantile 28.50% [1] - **Apples (AP605)**: Spot price 9200, futures price 9163.0, basis 37.0, basis rate 0.40%, historical quantile 24.70% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ605)**: Spot price 8970.0, futures price 8300, basis - 670.0, basis rate - 7.47%, historical quantile 61.60% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX603)**: Spot price 7270.0, futures price 7199.0, basis 71.0, basis rate 0.98%, historical quantile 14.20% [1] - **PTA (TA605)**: Spot price 5122.0, futures price 5060.0, basis 62.0, basis rate 1.21%, historical quantile 32.80% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: Spot price 3817.0, futures price 3690.0, basis 127.0, basis rate 3.33%, historical quantile 12.20% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF602)**: Spot price 6540.0, futures price 6530.0, basis 10.0, basis rate 0.15%, historical quantile 39.60% [1] - **Styrene (EB2602)**: Spot price 6815.0, futures price 6737.0, basis 78.0, basis rate 1.16%, historical quantile 46.20% [1] - **Methanol (MA605)**: Spot price 2161.0, futures price 2150.0, basis 11.0, basis rate 0.51%, historical quantile 31.00% [1] - **Urea (UR605)**: Spot price 1735.0, futures price 1710.0, basis 25.0, basis rate 1.44%, historical quantile 9.40% [1] - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Spot price 6453.0, futures price 6340.0, basis 113.0, basis rate 1.75%, historical quantile 2.60% [1] - **PP (PP2605)**: Spot price 6274.0, futures price 6240.0, basis 34.0, basis rate 0.54%, historical quantile 17.50% [1] - **PVC (V2605)**: Spot price 4777.0, futures price 4520.0, basis 257.0, basis rate 5.38%, historical quantile 14.90% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH603)**: Spot price 2232.0, futures price 2212.5, basis 19.5, basis rate 0.81%, historical quantile 40.40% [1] - **LPG (PG2602)**: Spot price 4528.0, futures price 4046.0, basis 482.0, basis rate 11.91%, historical quantile 67.30% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2602)**: Spot price 3008.0, futures price 2920.0, basis 88.0, basis rate 2.93%, historical quantile 32.40% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2602)**: Spot price 11600.0, futures price 11300.0, basis 300.0, basis rate 2.99%, historical quantile 7.30% [1] - **Float Glass (FG605)**: Spot price 1051.0, futures price 896.0, basis 155.0, basis rate 17.30%, historical quantile 8.19% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA605)**: Spot price 1181.0, futures price 1122.0, basis 59.0, basis rate 5.26%, historical quantile 18.69% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: Spot price 15665.0, futures price 15250.0, basis 415.0, basis rate 2.72%, historical quantile 69.38% [1] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures** - **IF2603.CFF**: Spot price 4639.4, futures price 4610.2, basis - 29.2, basis rate - 0.63%, historical quantile 14.10% [1] - **IH2603.CFE**: Spot price 3038.0, futures price 3034.6, basis 3.4, basis rate 0.11%, historical quantile 76.10% [1] - **IC2603.CFE**: Spot price 7430.6, futures price 7336.6, basis - 94.0, basis rate - 1.28%, historical quantile 4.20% [1] - **IM2603.CFE**: Spot price 7594.2, futures price 7439.0, basis - 155.2, basis rate - 2.09%, historical quantile 7.80% [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2603)**: Spot price 102.48, futures price 100.15, basis - 0.01, basis rate - 0.01%, historical quantile 23.90%, conversion factor 0.9774 [1] - **5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2603)**: Spot price 105.83, futures price 99.56, basis - 0.04, basis rate - 0.04%, historical quantile 22.10%, conversion factor 0.9412 [1] - **10 - year Treasury Bond (T2603)**: Spot price 107.97, futures price 100.37, basis 0.09, basis rate 0.09%, historical quantile 28.10%, conversion factor 0.9288 [1] - **30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2603)**: Spot price 126.22, futures price 111.64, basis 0.48, basis rate 0.43%, historical quantile 71.10%, conversion factor 1.1263 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1. Index Futures Spread Report - Presents detailed data on various index futures spreads including IF, IH, IC, and IM, such as current values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles [1] 2.2. Bond Futures Basis and Spread Report - Provides data on bond futures basis (TS, TF, T, TL) and spreads, including IRR, current values, changes from the previous day, and percentiles since listing [2] 2.3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Report - In the long - term, gold prices may rise due to early capital allocation. Short - term, the market will be in a strong - side shock. For silver, beware of the risk of speculative long - positions taking profits at high levels. Platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term, but there may be short - term corrections [3] 2.4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Report - Shows data on container shipping indexes, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data, including shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export amounts, and overseas economic data [4] 3. Summary of Each Report by Section 3.1. Index Futures Spread Report 3.1.1. Spread Data - IF spread: F - period spread is 7.12, H - period spread is 1.16, with corresponding changes and percentiles [1] - IH, IC, IM spreads: Provide current values, changes, and percentiles for different spread types (e.g., inter - period spreads) [1] 3.1.2. Cross - Variety Ratios - Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc., with current values, changes, and percentiles [1] 3.2. Bond Futures Basis and Spread Report 3.2.1. Basis Data - TS, TF, T, TL basis: Provide IRR, current values, changes, and percentiles since listing [2] 3.2.2. Spread Data - Inter - period spreads for TF, T, TL, and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF, TS - T) with current values, changes, and percentiles [2] 3.3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Report 3.3.1. Futures Closing Prices - Domestic futures (AU2602, AG2602, etc.) and foreign - market futures (COMEX gold, COMEX silver, etc.) with closing prices, changes, and percentage changes [3] 3.3.2. Spot Prices - London gold, London silver, and domestic spot prices (SGE gold, SGE silver, etc.) with prices, changes, and percentage changes [3] 3.3.3. Basis and Ratios - Basis data (e.g., gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract) and price ratios (e.g., COMEX gold/silver) with current values, changes, and percentiles [3] 3.3.4. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield, 2 - year US Treasury yield, etc., with current values, changes, and percentage changes [3] 3.3.5. Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver inventories, COMEX gold and silver inventories, etc., with values, changes, and percentage changes [3] 3.4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Report 3.4.1. Shipping Indexes - SCFIS (European and US - West routes), SCFI comprehensive index, and its sub - indexes (European, US - West, US - East) with prices, changes, and percentage changes [4] 3.4.2. Futures Prices and Basis - Futures contract prices (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) and basis (main contract) with values, changes, and percentage changes [4] 3.4.3. Fundamental Data - Shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (Shanghai port on - time rate, port calls), export amounts, and overseas economic data (eurozone PMI, US manufacturing PMI, etc.) with values, changes, and percentage changes [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: At the end of the year, driven by multiple factors, some investors choose to "pre - emptively" allocate precious metals, with ETF holdings and derivatives positions increasing. In the short - term, without clear negative factors, the market will maintain a strong - side shock. For silver, as the COMEX silver approaches the last trading day, the physical delivery demand decreases, and the increase in domestic inventory may ease the bullish sentiment. During the sharp rise of silver, attention should be paid to the number of open contracts, warehouse receipts, and regulatory measures to prevent the risk of speculative long - positions taking profits at high levels. For platinum and palladium, in the medium - to - long - term, they are expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner due to strong fundamentals and undervalued prices compared to gold. However, in the short - term, there may be significant pullbacks due to low liquidity in the domestic market and regulatory measures [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The settlement price indices of SCFIS for European and US - West routes, and the SCFI comprehensive index and sub - indices for different routes show certain fluctuations. The futures prices of related contracts also change. Fundamentals such as port on - time rates, port calls, export balances, and overseas economic indicators also have corresponding changes, which jointly affect the container shipping market [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs **Futures Index Price Difference Daily Report** - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: For example, the IC futures - spot price difference is - 111.64, the IM futures - spot price difference is - 178.78, etc. Each index has different price differences and percentile changes compared to the previous day and historical levels [1]. - **Inter - period Price Difference**: There are various inter - period price differences such as next - month minus current - month, zero - month minus current - month, etc., with different values and percentile changes for different indices [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratio**: Ratios like IC/IF, IC/IH, etc. are provided, along with their latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentile positions [1]. **Treasury Bond Futures Price Difference Daily Report** - **Basis**: The TS basis is 1.6874, the TF basis is 1.6734, etc., with corresponding changes and historical percentile positions [2]. - **Inter - period Price Difference**: For different contracts like TF, T, TL, there are inter - period price differences such as current - season minus next - season, with their values, changes, and historical percentile positions [2]. - **Cross - variety Price Difference**: Cross - variety price differences such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are presented, along with their values, changes, and historical percentile positions [2]. **Precious Metals Futures - Spot Daily Report** - **Domestic Futures Closing Price**: The AU2602 contract closed at 1014.68 yuan/gram on December 24, with a 0.04% increase; the AG2602 contract closed at 17609 yuan/kilogram, with a 7.10% increase, etc. [3]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Price**: The COMEX gold main contract closed at 4505.40 on December 24, with a - 0.21% decrease; the COMEX silver main contract closed at 71.88 dollars/ounce, with a 0.37% increase, etc. [3]. - **Spot Price**: London gold was at 4479.39 on December 24, with a - 0.12% decrease; Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 17714 yuan/kilogram, with a 7.88% increase, etc. [3]. - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 7.46, with a 0.33 increase and a 1.20% historical one - year percentile; the silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis is 105, with a 126 increase and a 99.50% historical one - year percentile, etc. [3]. - **Price Ratio**: The CONEX gold/silver ratio is 62.68, with a - 0.58% decrease; the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio is 57.62, with a - 6.59% decrease, etc. [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.15, with a - 0.7% decrease; the US dollar index is 97.95, with a 0.05% increase, etc. [3]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 93711, with no change; the COMEX silver inventory is 451352686, with a 0.10% increase, etc. [3]. **Container Shipping Industry Futures - Spot Daily Report** - **Container Shipping Index**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on December 22 is 1589.20 points, with a 5.21% increase compared to December 15; the SCFI comprehensive index on December 19 is 1506.46 points, with a 7.79% increase compared to December 12 [5]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: The EC2602 (main contract) futures price on December 24 is 1795.8 points, with a - 0.60% decrease compared to December 23; the main - contract basis is - 206.6, with a - 4.97% change [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply on December 24 is 3364.19 million TEU, with no change; the port on - time rate in Shanghai in November is 40.00, with an 18.50% decrease compared to October; the euro - zone composite PMI in December is 51.90 points, with a - 1.70% decrease compared to November [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current valuation of the 02 contract is high, and future performance depends on spot cargo trends. Short - term sentiment is positive due to spot improvement, but it's difficult to predict the peak height and time of January freight rates and subsequent price - drop rhythms. It's not recommended to enter the market at the current level [3]. - The valuation of the 04 contract is moderately high. It may follow the spot market or recover the basis in the short term. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [3]. - Far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Short - selling off - season contracts is safer than short - or long - selling peak - season contracts. An overall positive spread strategy should be adopted, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the 10 contract [3]. 3. Detailed Summaries Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2512 closed at 1631.0 with a 0.06% increase; EC2602 at 1871.8 with an 8.84% increase; EC2604 at 1166.8 with a 3.37% increase; EC2606 at 1320.0 with a 2.46% increase; EC2608 at 1486.2 with a 2.27% increase; EC2610 at 1061.0 with a 1.02% increase. The trading volumes were 100, 52704, 11708, 587, 256, and 1449 respectively, and the open interests were 1956, 36510, 20471, 2184, 1197, and 5401 respectively, with changes of - 27, 5003, 1634, - 36, - 91, and 466 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For example, EC2512 - 2504 was 464.2, with a day - on - day change of - 37.1 and a week - on - week change of - 79.8; EC2512 - 2602 was - 240.8, with a day - on - day change of - 151.1 and a week - on - week change of - 213.0; EC2502 - 2604 was 705.0, with a day - on - day change of 114.0 and a week - on - week change of 133.2 [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Indexes**: The TEU index updated on 2025/12/22 was 1589.20, up 5.21% from the previous period. SCF on 2025/12/19 was 1533 dollars/TEU, down 0.3% from the previous period. CCFI on 2025/12/19 was 1473.9 points, up 0.23% from the previous period. NCFI on 2025/12/19 was 1067.29 points, up 0.30% from the previous period [2]. - **European Line Spot Situation**: In Week 52, MSK's opening price was 2300 dollars (down 100 dollars from the previous week), and other companies mainly followed Week 51 prices. The central price was 2500 dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures. All shipping companies are raising prices for January cabins. In Week 1, MSK's opening price was 2500 dollars (up 200 dollars from the previous week), and the prices of other shipping companies are yet to be announced [4]. News and Geopolitical Factors - The US plans to hold a Gaza reconstruction conference to promote a new round of cease - fire. The meeting may be held as early as next month, and Washington is a potential venue. Egypt and other locations are also being considered. The meeting is likely to be held after the "Peace Committee" is established [4]. - The Turkish Foreign Minister expects the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement to start early in the new year [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 88,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. Supply scheduling has decreased but remains at a high level. - Demand side: Last week's demand was 81,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.00%, showing a rise in demand. However, overall demand recovery is at a low level. - Cost side: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season. - Expectation: Industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,600 - 8,780 yuan/ton [3][4]. Polysilicon - Supply side: Last week's polysilicon output was 25,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39%. The scheduled output for December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%. Supply scheduling continues to decline. - Demand side: Downstream sectors such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have all seen a continuous decline in production, with overall demand showing a continuous recession. - Cost side: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton, with cost support remaining stable. - Expectation: Polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 59,235 - 61,255 yuan/ton [7][8][9]. Overall Market - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and a situation of strong supply and weak demand in downstream polysilicon. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: 88,000 tons last week, flat week - on - week. - Demand: 81,000 tons last week, up 8.00% week - on - week. - Inventory: Social inventory is 553,000 tons, down 1.42% week - on - week; sample enterprise inventory is 192,500 tons, up 2.94% week - on - week; major port inventory is 138,000 tons, up 1.47% week - on - week. - Basis: On December 19th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis was 510 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract price closed below MA20. - Main positions: Net short positions by the main players, with short positions decreasing [3][4]. Polysilicon - Supply: Output of 25,000 tons last week, down 0.39% week - on - week; December scheduled output of 113,500 tons, down 0.95% month - on - month. - Demand: Downstream production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all in decline. - Cost: Average cost of N - type polysilicon is 38,600 yuan/ton, and production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton. - Basis: On December 19th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis was - 7,845 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 293,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week, at a historically high level. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed above MA20. - Main positions: Net short positions by the main players, with short positions decreasing [7][8][9]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - Futures closing prices: Most contracts showed an increase, with the largest increase of 0.64% in the 09 contract and a decrease of 0.06% in the 07 contract. - Basis: Most contracts showed a decline, with the largest decline of 8.11% in the 05 contract. - Warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 9,019, an increase of 2.31% [16][17]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed an increase, with the largest increase of 2.29% in the 11 contract. - Basis: All contracts showed a decline, with the largest decline of 15.32% in the 02 contract. - Inventory: Weekly total inventory was 293,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week [19]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Price Difference Trends The report shows the historical trends of the main contract basis of industrial silicon and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon in East China [21][22]. 5. Polysilicon Disk Price Trends The report shows the historical trends of the main contract price, trading volume, and basis of polysilicon [24][25]. 6. Industrial Silicon Inventory - Delivery warehouse and port inventory: The report shows the historical trends of inventory in various regions and ports. - SMM sample enterprise inventory: The report shows the historical trends of inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan. - Registered warehouse receipt volume: The report shows the historical trends of the number of registered warehouse receipts [27][28][29]. 7. Industrial Silicon Output and Capacity Utilization Trends - SMM sample enterprise weekly output: The report shows the historical trends of output in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan. - Industrial silicon monthly output by specification: The report shows the historical trends of output of 421, non - oxygen - passing 553, oxygen - passing 553, and other types of silicon. - SMM sample enterprise capacity utilization: The report shows the historical trends of capacity utilization in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan [31][32][33]. 8. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends The report shows the historical trends of cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang [38][39]. 9. Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Weekly supply - demand balance: The report shows the historical trends of production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon. - Monthly supply - demand balance: The report shows the actual consumption, export volume, import volume, production, and supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from November 2024 to November 2025 [40][43][44]. 10. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC price and production trends: The report shows the historical trends of DMC capacity utilization, profit, cost, output, and price. - Downstream price trends: The report shows the historical trends of prices of 107 rubber, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4. - Import - export and inventory trends: The report shows the historical trends of DMC import, export, and inventory [46][48][52]. 11. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply situation: The report shows the historical trends of waste aluminum recycling, social inventory, aluminum scrap import, aluminum alloy import - export, ADC12 price, and import cost - profit. - Output and production capacity trends: The report shows the historical trends of monthly output of primary aluminum - based and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots. - Demand (automobiles and wheels): The report shows the historical trends of automobile monthly output, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel export [56][58][61]. 12. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Fundamental trends: The report shows the historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, inventory, output, operating rate, and demand. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The report shows the supply - demand balance of polysilicon from October 2024 to October 2025. - Silicon wafer trends: The report shows the historical trends of silicon wafer price, output, inventory, demand, and net export. - Battery cell trends: The report shows the historical trends of battery cell price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export. - Photovoltaic component trends: The report shows the historical trends of component price, inventory, output, and export. - Photovoltaic accessory trends: The report shows the historical trends of photovoltaic coating price, film import - export, glass output, export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export. - Component composition cost - profit trends (210mm): The report shows the cost - profit trends of silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in 210mm double - sided double - glass components. - Photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends: The report shows the historical trends of national new power generation capacity, power generation composition, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar power generation [64][67][70].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月22日 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 新创信公众 叶倩宁 Z0016628 | 基差率 | 现货价格 | 期货价格 | 基差 | 历史分位数 | 品种/合约 | 现货参考 | 留注 | -0.97% | 52.00% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF603) | -32 | 5608 | 5640 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 | 0.03% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 5810 | 5808 | 25.40% | 硅罐(SM603) | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 181 | 5.80% | 3300 | 69.20% | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | 3119 | | | | | | 3270 | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 3269 | 1 | 0.03 ...