Core Insights - The performance of the investment portfolios has validated the company's judgment over the past three years, indicating a global allocation strategy with a trend of oscillating upward [1][9] - The "Lazy Balanced" portfolio has shown a year-to-date increase of 13.89%, while the "Rui Global" portfolio has returned to a 19.19% gain after two weeks of consecutive increases [1][12] Weekly Market Review - Global markets experienced increased volatility, with most markets showing some rebound. A-shares rose by 0.99%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.32%. The U.S. market saw a rise of 1.13%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 increased by 2.59% [7][9] - The bond market showed overall weakness, with the China bond index down by 0.27% and U.S. bonds down by 1%. Gold also experienced a slight decline of 0.49% [7][9] Portfolio Performance - The "Rui Global" portfolio increased by 0.72% this week, reaffirming the logic of "oscillating upward." The portfolio's performance over the past three years has provided sufficient validation for the investment strategy [9][12] - The "Lazy Balanced" portfolio demonstrated lower volatility and quicker recovery, suitable for investors seeking a more stable investment rhythm. It achieved a weekly increase of 0.42% and a year-to-date return of 13.89% [12][13] Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced allocation across different assets to manage overall volatility effectively. This strategy is particularly relevant in the current market environment, where differentiation among asset classes is crucial [7][9] - The company encourages investors to continue with regular investments, especially during market corrections, as these periods can present the best buying opportunities [9][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing popularity of the dividend low-volatility strategy, particularly the dividend low-volatility ETF fund (159547), which has seen a net inflow rate of 14.27% over the past five trading days as of December 11, 2025 [1] - Zhongyuan Securities suggests that the easing of China-US trade relations and the upcoming key policy meetings, such as the Central Economic Work Conference, will influence market risk appetite [1] - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy, emphasizing the defensive value of dividend assets due to a decline in market turnover and a cautious risk preference among investors [1] Group 2 - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and artificial intelligence sectors have become increasingly attractive for investment following a valuation correction in November [1] - A balanced barbell strategy is proposed as a suitable current allocation strategy, reflecting the dual focus on defensive dividend assets and the potential of TMT and AI sectors [1] - The low fee of 20 basis points for the dividend low-volatility ETF fund (159547) continues to attract investor attention [1]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：郁言债市 访谈金句分享 "七分量化"解决中高频决策，"三分主观"解决低频决策，两者结合，是我做好公募量化的方法论。 当我们要做投资的时候，一定要问自己这个问题，预测周期是一天、一个月还是一年及更长。不同的预 测周期，方法论天差地别，先说一天，如果你预测的是一天，可能最好的方法论就是量化私募的那套， 例如高频交易、大量的技术面因子、人工智能工具，这或许是最优解。如果把频率放到预测未来一个 月，那么基本面因子的比重会提高。如果要预测未来一年，量化方法论可能都有所欠缺，这个时候就需 要主观的介入，所以量化和主观在不同的预测频率下适用情况不一样的。 聊到量化，我想到两个字：工厂。我们现在做的事情已经高度工业化。截至2025年，整个"工厂"的架构 大致分为三层。最底层是挖掘因子，第二层做成子策略，相当于子产品，第三层则是最终交付给投资者 的基金产品。"七分量化"体现在产品运作过程中如何配置因子、获取超额收益；"三分主观"则体现在决 定何时发行何种产品。两者结合，构成了我公募量化的答案。 微盘股指数就像超高收益的、长久期的信用债。它包含三个元 ...

过去一周，全球资产在情绪修复与预期改善的共同作用下出现明显回暖，从权益到贵金属均呈现出不同程度的反弹。 伴随这一波市场情绪的回升，各组合的周度表现也同步改善，前期调整幅度较大的品种重新站上更高收益区间，整体节奏回到既定趋势。 本周整理依旧围绕三部分展开：一周行情复盘、睿定投全球版、懒人均衡。所有数据均源自动态实盘记录， 旨在为朋友们提供一个清晰、完整的周度更 新参考框架。 一周行情复盘｜市场集体回暖 | | | 涨跌幅 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 沪深300 | 2.9% | 中债新综合全价 | -0.2% | | 红利 | 中证红利 | 1.2% | 美国20年+国债 | -1.0% | | 港股 | 恒生科技 | 1.8% | 下湿金 | 3.4% | | 美国 | 纳指100 | 1.9% | | | | 德国 | 德国DAX | 1.5% | | | | 日本 | 日经225 | 1.4% | 省心债组合 | -0.14% | | 印度 | 印度sensex30 | 0.9% | 懒人—均衡组合 | 1.46% | | 越南 | 胡 ...

三是，随着市场对美元资产"一枝独秀论"祛魅，全球资金对中国资产配置兴趣回升。同时，国内资金开 始从定期存款向多元理财配置转变，保险和银行资管等机构开始"真金白银"入市。 在邢自强看来，全球流动性环境趋于宽松将支持风险资产表现，预计2026年上半年美联储将会有三次降 息，分别在1月、4月和6月进行，这为全球风险资产创造了有利环境。 12月2日，摩根士丹利举办线下媒体圆桌分享会，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强和摩根士丹利中 国首席股票策略师王滢讨论了2026年中国经济和股市策略。 中国股市进入"估值结构性修复"过程 王滢认为，中国股市已经进入了"估值结构性修复"的过程。"今年A股、港股，包括全球机构投资人追 踪最为紧密的明晟中国指数，在估值上取得了非常大程度的修复。尤其港股恒生指数和明晟中国指数， 市盈率修复超30%。"她说。 摩根士丹利表示，随着市场对美元资产"一枝独秀论"祛魅，全球资金对中国资产配置兴趣回升，中国股 市重新被定义为"有成长性的市场"。该机构小幅上调了中国股票指数目标，将2026年12月沪深300指数 的目标点位定为4840点，并表示"明晟中国指数12个月前瞻市盈率在12至13倍之间是合理的" ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the "ten thousand funds" era is the overwhelming number of fund products available, which complicates investment decisions for investors [2][17] - As of 2025, the number of public funds in China has surpassed 10,000, exceeding the number of A-share listed companies, leading to increased complexity in investment choices [1][16] - The market features a wide variety of fund types, including 46 different dividend ETFs, which are further categorized into various subtypes, increasing the decision-making challenge for investors [2][17] Group 2 - Professional investors are exploring adaptive fund allocation strategies, such as the "barbell strategy," which balances defensive dividend assets with growth assets to reduce portfolio volatility [3][18] - The future of dividend asset allocation is expected to enter a "dividend+" era, where performance differentiation among dividend assets will require careful selection based on specific industry and company conditions [3][18] - Growth asset allocation is becoming highly specialized, with themes like "Future Has Arrived" focusing on sectors such as AI, robotics, and future energy, providing clear growth direction for investors [3][18][4] Group 3 - The Sina Finance APP has emerged as a leading tool for investors, scoring 9.56 in a professional evaluation, and covering 98% of the market's fund products [6][20] - The APP integrates data from 163 fund companies, allowing investors to access comprehensive fund net value information without switching platforms [7][20] - Features like the "Xina AI Assistant" help investors understand complex data by summarizing lengthy reports and highlighting risk and opportunity points [7][21] Group 4 - The introduction of the "drawdown area" concept, or "pain index," provides a more comprehensive measure of investment experience compared to traditional metrics like maximum drawdown [11][22] - Research indicates that enhanced index funds outperform regular index funds across various metrics, including drawdown area and cumulative returns [11][22] - Combining different styles and market capitalizations of enhanced index products can further reduce portfolio volatility and improve investment experience [11][22] Group 5 - The Sina Finance APP offers a modular workspace with over 200 customizable features, allowing investors to tailor their investment environment [25] - The intelligent investment features, such as automatic adjustment of investment amounts based on market conditions, help investors make more rational decisions [25][21] - The APP also provides real-time news updates and deep research reports, enhancing the decision-making process for investors [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of cash flow and dividend strategies in investment, particularly highlighting the performance of cash flow ETFs compared to dividend ETFs and the broader market [5][15][21]. Market Performance - On November 21, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.45%, marking a significant single-day decline for many investors [5]. - Since the beginning of April, following the US-China tariff war, the market and most sectors have shown considerable gains until early November, leading to increased risk exposure in investor portfolios [6]. Investment Strategies - A "barbell strategy" combining technology and dividend stocks has been effective, with technology stocks performing well this year and dividend assets providing a buffer during market corrections [7]. - The A-share market has experienced increased volatility since September, with significant declines in the 万得全 A Index during three major adjustment periods [8][9]. ETF Performance - During market corrections, dividend ETFs and cash flow ETFs demonstrated strong defensive characteristics, with dividend ETFs showing smaller declines or even gains [9]. - Cash flow ETFs have outperformed in terms of cumulative return-to-drawdown ratios, with 14 out of the top 20 strategies being cash flow ETFs [12]. Long-term Performance - Since 2014, the 国证自由现金流 index has significantly outperformed both the 深证红利 and 沪深 300 indices, with a cumulative return of 445.14% compared to 139.64% and 91.14%, respectively [14]. - During the market downturn from early 2022 to late September 2023, the 国证自由现金流 index achieved a cumulative return of 36.35%, while the other indices experienced negative returns [14]. Index Composition - The 国证自由现金流 index focuses on companies with positive free cash flow, enterprise value, and operating cash flow, selecting the top 100 stocks based on free cash flow yield [17]. - The index includes a high proportion of state-owned enterprises, with significant market capitalization among its constituents [18]. Market Trends - The current investment climate favors cash flow assets due to rising geopolitical tensions and a shift towards lower-risk investments [20]. - The largest cash flow ETF, 华夏自由现金流 ETF, has over 7 billion yuan in assets, making it a preferred choice for investors [22]. Future Outlook - Historical analysis suggests that market style rotations occur every 2-3 years, with Q4 often being a critical period for portfolio adjustments [23]. - The focus on cash flow aligns with current policy trends aimed at stabilizing the economy, making cash flow-rich sectors attractive for investment [23].

Core Viewpoint - The global markets faced pressure last week, leading to a general decline, but the investment portfolio maintained a controlled drop, ensuring a stable long-term return structure [1]. Market Summary - Major markets experienced a downturn, with A-shares falling by 3.26%, Hong Kong stocks down by 2.53%, and significant declines in Germany and Japan. The US market saw a slight increase of 0.3% [2]. - The overall market sentiment was weak, with various asset classes, including gold and government bonds, also experiencing declines [2]. Portfolio Performance - The investment strategy demonstrated resilience, with the "Rui Ding Tou Global Version" only declining by 0.51% during a week of significant A-share adjustments, maintaining a year-to-date return of 16.19% [7]. - Historical performance indicates that the portfolio achieved a return of 13.13% in 2023 and is projected to yield 7.87% in 2024, showcasing the long-term advantages of global diversification [7]. Investment Strategies - The "Lazy Balanced" strategy exhibited stability with a decline of 0.6% last week, yet it has achieved a return of 11.78% since 2025, reflecting its robust performance during market volatility due to a higher bond allocation [11]. - This strategy is recommended for investors seeking to reduce volatility and pursue long-term steady growth, complementing the global version for a more balanced risk structure [11]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, and investors are advised to avoid chasing trends. The recent rebound in the Nasdaq indicates potential recovery opportunities [14]. - The investment team plans to continue optimizing asset allocation to deliver stable and sustainable returns in the future [27].

Market Overview - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index opened lower but rose throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index at one point increasing by over 3% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.78 trillion, a decrease of 28.8 billion from the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14% [1] Investment Trends - Despite the market downturn, many investment institutions are buying into stock ETFs, with a net inflow of 701.21 billion in stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs last week [4] - The net inflow into broad-based index ETFs was 359.31 billion, indicating a significant direction for capital inflow [4] - Institutions believe that the overall market trend remains unchanged, and the current capital inflow into ETFs suggests that many investors are taking the opportunity to buy on dips [4] External Factors - Recent adjustments in the market are attributed to external factors, including unexpected U.S. employment data and rising unemployment rates, which have created uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5] - Concerns about asset price declines and the AI bubble have not fully dissipated, contributing to market volatility [5] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions are also affecting market risk appetite [5] Long-term Outlook - Institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for the market, suggesting that the current short-term pullback does not alter the long-term positive trend [6] - The expectation is for a "slow bull" market to emerge, with foreign investment banks noting that while the market has priced in no further interest rate cuts this year, the possibility of a rate cut in December remains [6] Defensive Strategies - As the year-end approaches, institutions are adopting balanced allocation strategies for next year [7] - There is a strong demand for dividend-paying assets due to ongoing pressures in bank lending and deposit growth [8] - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the central bank could enhance the valuation of dividend assets [9] Growth Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technology as a key area for growth, presenting both opportunities and challenges [10] - Strategic resources are expected to become focal points in the market due to U.S.-China competition [11] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is showing signs of recovery, with the central bank signaling a more accommodative stance [12] - A decrease in bond supply towards year-end is leading to increased demand for early allocation from banks and insurance companies [12] Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider professional institutions for market participation and to monitor fund managers' adjustments [12] - A balanced allocation strategy, referred to as the "barbell strategy," is recommended, focusing on both technology-driven sectors and stable dividend-paying stocks [14] - Investors should lower short-term expectations and consider "fixed income plus" funds for stable returns [15] - Maintaining rationality during market downturns and seeking opportunities in corrections is advised as a long-term investment strategy [16]

恒生指数高开0.9%，恒生科技指数涨1.43%。科网股多数上涨，百度集团涨近4%，小米集团、阿里巴巴 涨近3%。文远知行涨超6%，公司第三季度总收入1.71亿元，同比增长144.3%。 广发证券表示，港股可能再次迎来布局良机。如果后续美国政府停摆结束、美联储12月降息表态重新转 鸽、美联储停止缩表甚至重启扩表，美元流动性得到缓解，港股可能会出现新一轮上涨。配置上，11月 基本面驱动效应强，仍然采用杠铃策略，以红利为底仓，科技成长博弹性。广发证券称，港股牛市的基 础并未破坏，但演进方式更可能呈现"震荡上行、重心缓升"的特征，而非单边快速上涨，港股的11月基 本面驱动效应强，仍然要重视高景气板块的价值。在配置上，仍然采用杠铃策略，港股稳定价值类资产 (尤其是AH溢价相对较高H股)作为底仓长期配置，港股景气成长类资产的产业逻辑依然坚实，震荡中孕 育机会。一旦上述Trigger出现，资金可能会流入中国最具备全球竞争优势的核心资产，例如恒生科技 (互联网、新能源车)等。 银河证券表示，临近年底，市场风险偏好趋于谨慎，港股或延续震荡走势。建议关注以下板块：(1)供 需格局变化下，下游商品价格上涨的周期股或持续反弹。(2) ...