Group 1 - Discussion on potential clues regarding interest rate cuts within the year [1] - Examination of the impact of Trump's tariffs on U.S. inflation, employment, and supply chains [2] - Insights on the international situation, particularly the tensions between Israel and Iran [3] Group 2 - Analysis of discussions surrounding U.S. fiscal policies [4] - Evaluation of Trump's actions against "illegal" immigration and its effects on the job market [5] - Consideration of Trump's deregulatory agenda, stablecoin legislation, and volatility in financial markets [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint suggests that Powell's stance in the upcoming June FOMC meeting may lean hawkish, potentially disappointing investors expecting rate cuts [1] - The recent sell-off of U.S. assets is attributed more to tariff policy impacts rather than a loss of confidence in the dollar's reserve currency status, although long-term trends could weaken this status [2] - Analysts predict a further decline in U.S. Treasury yields over the next few months, with the 10-year yield expected to drop to 4.35% in three months and 4.29% in six months from the current 4.48% [2] Group 2 - The decline in UK GDP provides another reason for the Bank of England to consider a rate cut in August, with April's GDP shrinking by 0.3% [3] - The current low volatility in the foreign exchange market may trigger a rebound in the dollar, as interest rate differentials become more pronounced [3] - Despite concerns over excess supply in the U.S. Treasury market, most economists expect the Federal Reserve to only cut rates two times or less this year [2]

纳斯达克总裁：波动性是对上市公司有利的因素。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market turbulence following President Trump's announcement of increased tariffs appears to have subsided, but the risk departments of major global banks remain cautious, implementing measures to mitigate potential losses while potentially sacrificing profits [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Strategies - Major banks like Bank of America, NatWest Markets, and Dutch Bank are taking precautionary measures such as daily risk inquiries, stress testing portfolios, and reducing swap positions to lower the risk of significant losses [1]. - Despite the recent calm in the markets, there are concerns about a potential new shock comparable to the one in April, particularly with the upcoming deadline for raising the U.S. federal debt ceiling and the expiration of Trump's tariff exemptions [1]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The volatility in the U.S. bond market surged to a two-year high in April, with both U.S. Treasuries and equities experiencing significant sell-offs, indicating a breakdown of the safe-haven role of U.S. bonds during stress periods [6][7]. - There are signs of a rebound in demand for longer-term bonds, as weak U.S. economic data has recently pushed up Treasury prices, while Japan's 30-year bond auction results were better than expected [5]. Group 3: Risk Management Practices - The uncertainty in the market has led to a reduction in positions by trading departments, with a focus on managing risks associated with potential volatility spikes, particularly in light of upcoming employment data [5][6]. - Risk management techniques such as scenario analysis and Value at Risk (VaR) are being employed to assess potential losses, but predicting market conditions remains challenging due to the unpredictable nature of current events [6].

芝商所CEO：未来散户交易的波动性将会减小。 ...

刚过去的5月，在特朗普政府推迟贸易谈判期限，并与多个主要贸易伙伴展开积极对话后，市场风险偏 好有所改观。衍生品市场保持火热态势，零日期权"0DTE"交易比例再创历史新高。与此同时，随着特 朗普关税政策而衍生出"TACO交易"（TACO trade）策略背后，针对市场波动性VIX的新交易模式或将 兴起。 零日期权火热依旧 在5月份整体期权市场活动有所缓解，但受欢迎的"0DTE"合约的月度交易量创下历史新高。 根据芝加哥期权交易所Cboe的数据，5月份，与标普500指数挂钩的"0DTE"期权合约交易量份额飙升至 历史新高61%，标志着华尔街最受欢迎的期权策略增长迎来最新里程碑。 超短期期权窗口期短，这使得投资者可以较低的价格（权利金），博取潜在巨大回报的潜力。同时，交 易热度背后高流动性的优点，受到了不少短线投资者的青睐。 芝加哥期权交易所全球市场（Cboe Global Markets）衍生品市场情报主管徐曼迪（Mandy Xu）在电子邮 件评论中表示："虽然5月份标普500指数期权总量从4月份的高点有所放缓，但0DTE期权交易比例飙 升，比4月份增长了9个百分点，其中大部分活动都是由散户投资者推动的。 " 第 ...

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean acting finance minister has announced plans to monitor financial markets due to potential increases in volatility [1] Group 1 - The acting finance minister emphasized the need for vigilance in the financial markets as volatility may rise [1]

导语 《 首份揭秘！中国公募基金投资者回报差研究-当幻想撞上现实 第一章 》中，我们从宏观视角解 读了中国公募基金市场投资者回报差的整体情况，结果发现，投资者高买低卖的问题长期存在，且 不同资产类型基金的投资者回报差呈现显著分化。其中，风险水平较高的偏股型基金投资者回报差 普遍较为显著，而近几年热度较高的行业基金更是有着最差的投资者回报差。延续第一章的发现， 本章将进一步聚焦高风险基金领域，以收益率波动性为切入点，选取两个市场熟知的基金作为典型 样本，结合具体案例展开深度分析，以揭示高波动基金投资者回报差的关键影响因素。 ►► 核心观点 1 2 3 收益波动性越高的基金普遍有着更大的投资者回报差： 过去五年数据显示，权益仓 位超70%的行业基金、主动股票和积极配置型基金，年化波动率分别高达29.05%、 23.95%和23.86%，而以债券为主要投资标的的保守混合和固收型基金，同期年化 波 动 率 仅 为 5.33% 和 2.34%； 对 应 的 年 化 投 资 者 回 报 差 ， 前 三 类 基 金 分 别 为-3.59%、-2.65%和-2.17%，后两者则为-0.86%和-0.62%，差异显著。收益的高 ...

Market Overview - The overall stock market has returned to early-year levels, but corporate earnings and consumer confidence indicators are showing signs of weakness [1] - Uncertainties in the market are largely stemming from Washington, particularly regarding tariff and tax policy disputes, with no short-term resolution in sight [1] Historical Summer Performance - Historical data from American Century Investments indicates that summer markets have recorded gains in 38 out of the last 50 years, with an average increase of approximately 3.9% from May 1 to October 31 [2] - Despite this positive historical performance, the current market conditions for the summer of 2025 present several warning signals, including a near 21 times forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500, approaching levels seen in the late 1990s [2] Current Market Sentiment - The first quarter earnings season showed strong performance, with 78% of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings expectations, slightly above the five-year average of 77% [3] - However, there has been an increase in the mention of "recession" during earnings calls, marking the highest frequency since 2022 [3] - Analyst sentiment is also cautious, with Yardeni Research reporting the worst record in two years for the ratio of analysts raising versus lowering earnings and revenue forecasts [3] Key Events Impacting Summer Market - Ongoing disputes over tariffs and tax policies are contributing to market volatility, with significant fluctuations often following President Trump's trade policy announcements [3] - Upcoming trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan are set for May 30, with Japan seeking to expand investments in the U.S. and modify import regulations, although the U.S. remains cautious regarding auto tariffs [4] - The U.S. and EU trade talks have gained momentum after Trump backed off from imposing tariffs, but uncertainty remains among EU businesses regarding the outcome of these negotiations [4] Legislative Developments - A new tax and spending bill proposed by Republicans, referred to as the "Beautiful Bill," is facing resistance due to concerns over increasing the deficit, with key senators expressing the need for significant modifications [5] - The bond market is showing signs of unease, with 30-year Treasury yields exceeding 5%, nearing the highest levels since 2007 [5] Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain high short-term interest rates to combat inflation, with meetings scheduled for June 17-18 and July 29-30 [6] - Current market expectations suggest a greater than 70% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, but any unexpected rate cuts could lead to a stock market rebound unless economic data indicates a looming recession [6]

Market Overview - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) surged nearly 20% last week, indicating increased market volatility [1] - The U.S. market faced a triple hit in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 5% and the dollar index dropping to its lowest level of the year [1] - Concerns over rising debt and the impact of Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating have heightened fears, leading to increased Treasury yields and a significant impact on market risk appetite [1][3] Economic Data - Recent U.S. economic data remains robust, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising from 50.2 to 52.3, marking the largest month-over-month increase since June 2022 [3] - The Services PMI also increased to a two-month high of 52.3 from 50.8 [3] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 0.2 thousand to 227 thousand, below the expected 230 thousand, while continuing claims rose by 36 thousand to 1.903 million [3] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the implications of the U.S. credit rating downgrade and market instability, with officials expressing caution regarding its potential impact on monetary policy [4] - The market anticipates that the Fed's first interest rate cut may be delayed until the fourth quarter of this year [5] Market Sentiment and Risks - The recent surge in long-term Treasury yields has raised concerns, with the 30-year yield reaching over 5%, the highest level since the financial crisis [5][6] - The market is facing renewed fears related to tariffs and trade wars, particularly following President Trump's latest tariff threats against the EU, which have led to significant declines in major stock indices [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the market must navigate several challenges, including potential tariff increases from the EU and the performance outlook of key companies like Nvidia [6]