Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs has led to significant market volatility, with the effective tax rate in the US reaching its highest point in nearly a century, at least 23% [2][4] - The tariffs are expected to increase inflation by approximately two percentage points, raising overall inflation to between 4% and 5%, which complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [8][11] - The market is currently facing liquidity shocks, stagflation risks, and concerns regarding the strength of the US dollar, which could impact GDP by at least 0.7 percentage points and reduce profit expectations to around 5% [11][12] Summary by Sections Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs - The tariffs have resulted in a uniform 10% baseline tariff on all trade partners, with some partners, like China, facing additional tariffs due to non-tariff barriers [2][4] - Market reactions include a sell-off of high-valuation stocks, a decline in US equities and the dollar, and a rise in bonds and gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][3][5] Future Monetary Policy Framework - Future monetary policy will need to address domestic liquidity and policy space, with central banks potentially taking measures to counteract market volatility caused by tariffs [6] - The liquidity risk can be monitored through indicators like the VIX index, with current issues primarily concentrated in the stock market [7] Inflation and Economic Growth - The tariffs are projected to push inflation higher, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and increasing the risk of stagflation [8][11] - The weakening of the dollar is attributed to a combination of factors, including increased competition in the tech sector and the impact of tariffs on cross-border capital flows [9][10] Specific Industry Impacts - The tariffs will significantly affect export-oriented sectors in China, with an overall tariff level exceeding 70% for certain goods, leading to a need for fiscal support to mitigate profit losses [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to face pressure, with potential volatility increasing due to external challenges from the tariffs [13] Long-term Risks and Considerations - The report highlights three main risks: liquidity shocks, stagflation risks, and the influence of the dollar on global capital allocation [11] - The reciprocal tariffs may lead to a broader impact on global trade dynamics, affecting specialized supply chains and trade relationships [24]

招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：上周贵金属市场大幅波动，以伦敦银计价的国际银价跌幅超过 10%；消息面，美国参议院通过预 算决议，特朗普税收、边境安全和军事优先事项法案获"关键突破"。经济数据方面，美国 3 月非农就业人口 增长 22.8 万，高于预期的增加 14 万，前值从增加 15.1 万下修为增加 11.7 万；3 月失业率升至 4.2%，预期 4.1%，前值 4.1%。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银进口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存增加 11 吨至 1186 吨，金交所白银库存上周增加 52 吨 1731 吨。伦敦 2 月库存减少 1056 吨至 22446 吨，主要流向美国。随着 黄金回调，白银价格也出现了明显回落。操作上，建议白银空单继续持有注意仓位或者做多金银比。风险点： 美国经济大幅衰退 基本金属 招商评论 | 铜 | 市场表现：清明节外盘铜期货市场暴跌，周一国内开盘前，美铜的暴跌依然继续，对应国内价格可能要去到 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 71000 元以下。观察黄金和比特币的情况，我们认为 ...

清明假期期间，随着我方的反制措施发布，市场的声音迅速两极分化，极左和极右——要么是美方赢麻了、中要跪，要么是美方蠢坏了、中必赢。 但理性来看（当然也许我说理性，很多人也觉得不够理性），不管是对等关税，还是强硬反制， 从资产价格的角度看，无疑是双输的局面 。 就好像一对重量级拳手，在擂台对垒，原先都戴着拳套，有裁判居间维持秩序，看似拳拳到肉，但实际因为有拳套的缓冲，以及可以搂抱暂停，所以顶多 是皮开肉绽，不至于伤筋动骨，最后不管是点胜还是KO，双方都可以拿着千万美刀的出场费，潇洒地离开。 而这轮贸易战掀桌子后， 就好像两位拳手把拳套给脱了 ，裁判也没有了， 直接硬碰硬，这就导致，不管最后是谁笑到最后，双方一定都会给对方，造成 更大的伤害。 本文确保都是干货，建议收藏。 节前A股收盘后，全球金融市场又发生了 足以载入史册的危机模式 ——标普500，周四、周五两日，累计下跌10.8%，而上一次两日跌幅超过10%，还是 在2020年3月，美股因疫情熔断的期间；再上一次，是2008年的金融危机；而大多数人印象比较深刻的，去年7-8月，美股因日元加息导致的大跌过程中， 标普500连续两日最大跌幅都没有超过5%。 所以，说 ...