1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided about the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased significantly. It is recommended to go long on gold and temporarily exit and wait and see for silver [1]. - For base metals, it is advisable to buy copper at dips, go long on aluminum at dips, and if holding alumina spot, one can sell call options opportunistically. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see, while for lithium carbonate, short - term wait - and - see is advised, and then go long with a small position after stabilization or buy call options when volatility declines. For polysilicon, one can try to go long lightly on dips. For tin, it is recommended to buy at dips [1][2][3]. - In the black industry, it is recommended to wait and see on the margin for steel products, try to short the rebar 2510 contract, wait and see mainly for iron ore, and try to short the coking coal 2601 contract [4][5]. - In the agricultural product market, for soybean meal, it is recommended to follow the international cost - end and oscillate strongly, paying attention to tariff policies. For corn, wait and see after continuous decline. For sugar, go short in the futures market and sell call options. For cotton, buy at dips and use an oscillating strategy in the 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton range. For palm oil, it is still bullish on oils, but trading becomes more difficult after valuation increases. For eggs and live pigs, wait and see. For apples, wait and see [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, for LLDPE, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and go short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads on the month - spread at high prices in the long - term. For PVC, wait and see. For PTA, wait and see in the short - term after taking profit on PX, and go short on the processing fee of far - month contracts at high prices. For rubber, hold long positions. For glass, wait and see. For PP, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term and go short on far - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads on the month - spread at high prices in the long - term. For MEG, go short at high prices and pay attention to peak - season orders. For crude oil, look for short - selling opportunities at around 520 yuan/barrel for the SC main contract. For styrene, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, go short on far - month contracts or short the styrene profit at high prices. For soda ash, wait and see. For caustic soda, go long [8][9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: On Monday, precious metal prices oscillated as the market gradually digested Powell's speech. Trump's administration is considering sanctioning EU officials due to the digital service law. Domestic gold ETF funds had a small outflow. COMEX gold inventory remained at 1199 tons, and SHFE gold inventory remained at 37 tons. London's July gold inventory was 8774 tons. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: SHFE silver inventory increased by 4 tons to 1113 tons, SGE silver inventory decreased by 64 tons to 1289 tons last week, COMEX silver inventory increased by 7 tons to 15823 tons, and London's July silver inventory increased by 408 tons to 24196 tons. India imported about 200 tons of silver in June. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares, increased by 11 tons to 15288 tons. It is recommended to temporarily exit and wait and see [1]. 3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, copper prices oscillated strongly. The market was still trading on Powell's dovish speech on Friday. The domestic equity market was still hot, and market risk appetite was high. The premium of flat - water copper in East and South China was 100 yuan and 30 yuan respectively, and the weekly inventory decreased by 0.87 million tons. It is recommended to buy at dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: Yesterday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.65% to 20785 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 110 yuan/ton, and the LME price was 2622 US dollars/ton. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly. It is expected that the price will oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at dips [2]. - **Alumina**: Yesterday, the closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.47% to 3184 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 75 yuan/ton. The operating capacity of alumina was stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. Bauxite supply is sufficient, alumina capacity remains high, inventory is continuously released, and the spot price is under downward pressure, but the cost support increases. It is expected that the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and if holding spot, one can sell call options opportunistically [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply side saw 1 new furnace opened last week in the country, and the resumption rhythm in the northwest region was less than expected due to raw material supply issues. Social inventory decreased slightly, and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly. On the demand side, the start - up of polysilicon maintained a slight increase, the output of silicone decreased month - on - month due to the decline in industrial chain prices, and the downstream demand for aluminum alloy entered the off - season, with a relatively stable start - up rate. The trading logic is centered around the "anti - involution" varieties, and the production plan in Xinjiang should be focused on. The disk is expected to oscillate between 8200 - 9200, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Yesterday, the main contract LC2511 closed at 79,380 yuan/ton (+420), up 0.5%. The CIF price of Australian spodumene was 920 US dollars/ton (+0), the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 82,500 (-1400) yuan/ton, and the basis weakened to +3340 yuan/ton. Last week's weekly output was 19138 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21%. The production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica decreased by 1250 tons, and the contract production of lithium carbonate from spodumene continued to increase, but the growth rate weakened and was gradually unable to cover the supply gap of lithium carbonate from lithium mica. In August, the peak production season of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials was evident, and the bidding capacity of the energy storage system in July had a bright growth rate. This week's sample inventory was 14.15 million tons, with a destocking of 713 tons. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and then go long with a small position after stabilization or buy call options when volatility declines [3]. - **Polysilicon**: On Monday, the main contract closed at 51580 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 5547 lots to 289125 lots. Today, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 111 lots to 50938 lots. Last week's weekly output increased slightly, and the output in August is expected to increase by about 20% month - on - month. The growth rate of warehouse receipts slowed down last week, and the industry inventory decreased significantly. On the demand side, the prices of downstream products fluctuated little. The production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in August met expectations, basically flat compared with July. The photovoltaic installation demand market in the third quarter is relatively pessimistic, and the newly - added photovoltaic installation in July decreased by 47.6% year - on - year. It is recommended to try to go long lightly on dips [3]. - **Tin**: Yesterday, tin prices oscillated strongly. The market was still trading on Powell's dovish speech on Friday. The domestic equity market was still hot, and market risk appetite was high. Domestic warehouse receipts decreased by 21 tons, and the premium of domestic deliverable brands was 300 - 600 yuan. Spot trading was light. It is recommended to buy at dips [3]. 3.3 Black Industry - **Rebar**: The rebar main 2510 contract oscillated weakly and closed at 3130 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The rebar inventory in the Gangyin caliber increased by 4.9% week - on - week to 464 million tons, and increased by 6.1% last week. The rebar delivery in Hangzhou over the weekend was 6.8 million tons, 6.6 million tons last week; the inventory was 82.8 million tons, 76.7 million tons last week, and 75.7 million tons in the same period last year. The supply and demand of building materials are moderately weak, and the demand is in the off - season. The previous good profits led to an increase in supply, and the inventory of building materials increased rapidly; the demand for plates is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain at a high level, and the absolute inventory and inventory days remain at the lowest level in history. Overall, the supply and demand of steel are relatively balanced, with no significant total contradiction, but obvious structural differentiation. The futures discount of rebar remains slightly high, and the futures structure of hot - rolled coils has turned to flat water, and the valuation has been continuously improved. It is recommended to wait and see on the margin and try to short the rebar 2510 contract [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore main 2601 contract oscillated weakly and closed at 783.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The shipment of Australia and Brazil in the Steel Union caliber increased by 4 million tons to 2760 million tons week - on - week, compared with 150 million tons in the same period last year. The arrival of iron ore decreased by 241 million tons to 2462 million tons week - on - week, a year - on - year decrease of 209 million tons. The port inventory decreased by 56 million tons to 1.44 billion tons week - on - week, a year - on - year decrease of 1419 million tons. The supply and demand of iron ore remained moderately strong, but the margin was slightly weaker. The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased week - on - week and increased by 7% year - on - year. The seventh round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the eighth round has been proposed. The profit of steel mills has shrunk marginally, and the subsequent output will be mainly stable; the supply side conforms to the seasonal law, with a slight year - on - year decrease. The supply and demand of iron ore are moderately strong on the margin, and due to the high base of molten iron demand, it is expected that the subsequent inventory build - up of iron ore will be slower than the seasonal law. Iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period in history, and the valuation is neutral. It is recommended to wait and see mainly [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal main 2601 contract oscillated upward and closed at 1214.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 0.1 million tons to 240.8 million tons week - on - week, a year - on - year increase of 16.3 million tons. The profit of steel mills has shrunk marginally, and the subsequent output will be mainly stable. The seventh round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the eighth round has been proposed. The inventories at various links on the supply side are differentiated. The coking coal inventories and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants remain at the lowest level in the same period in history, while the inventories at links such as mine mouths, ports, and terminals continue to remain at a high level in history. At the same time, the output and mine - mouth inventory decreased month - on - month, and the overall supply and demand are still relatively loose, but the fundamentals are improving month - on - month. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to try to short the coking coal 2601 contract [5]. 3.4 Agricultural Product Market - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans fell. On the supply side, the near - term output of US soybeans has shrunk due to a significant reduction in area, while the yield per unit is expected to be good, and the high - frequency weekly good - to - excellent rate is good; in the long - term, South America is expected to increase production, with a slight year - on - year increase overall. On the demand side, demand in South America is gradually decreasing, shifting to US soybeans, but there are still differences in the export demand for new - crop US soybeans, depending on tariff policies. In the short - term, US soybeans are strong, trading on supply contraction, but it is only a quantitative change. Domestic soybean arrivals are high in stages, and high - frequency demand also remains at a high level. It is recommended to follow the international cost - end and oscillate strongly, paying attention to tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The corn 2511 contract continued to be weak, and the corn spot price fell. Wheat has high cost - effectiveness and substitutes for corn in feed demand. The weak wheat price suppresses the corn price. The auction of imported grains increases market supply, and the low transaction rate reflects weak market sentiment. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The easing of the trade situation increases import expectations, early - spring corn is about to be listed, and the cost of new - crop corn has decreased significantly, suppressing long - term price expectations. The corn spot price is expected to run weakly. It is recommended to wait and see after continuous decline [6]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5680 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar processed and taxed after the out - of - quota was 436 yuan/ton. Internationally, Brazil's output is still the dominant factor for raw sugar. Pay attention to Brazil's bi - weekly output data. Currently, Brazil is the main reason for pressuring raw sugar, and high production is gradually being realized. Domestically, last week, imported sugar significantly pressured the spot price in the sales area, leading to a lower quotation, but this week, the spot price has shown a stabilizing trend, indicating the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking demand. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rebounded slightly and will be in a weak oscillation later, and will be below 6700 yuan/ton in the long - term. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, the US cotton futures price oscillated and fell, and the US dollar index strengthened significantly. Internationally, as of the week ending August 24, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton dropped to 54%, down from the previous week. The auction reserve price of India's Cotton Corporation S - 6 was stable at 55400 rupees/candy, equivalent to about 81.05 cents/pound. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated upward, and the market continued to focus on the tight spot situation. Yesterday, it was officially announced that 200,000 tons of sliding - scale duty - processing trade quotas would be issued, the same as last year. It is recommended to buy at dips and use an oscillating strategy in the 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton range [7]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil fell. On the supply side, the producing areas are still in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, and the MPOA daily Malaysian palm oil output increased by 3% month - on - month; on the demand side, it is estimated that from August 1 - 20, the situation in the producing areas has improved, and the ITS estimated that the Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9% month - on - month. Overall, the background is one of increasing supply and demand, with near - term inventory accumulation continuing and long - term expectations being tight. Oils are still bullish, but trading becomes more difficult after valuation increases. Pay attention to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The egg 2510 contract oscillated narrowly, and the spot price was stable. High temperatures have led to a seasonal decline in the laying rate of laying hens, and downstream food factories are gradually stocking up, so demand may increase seasonally. There are many newly - laid hens, and the willingness to cull old hens is not strong. Cold - storage egg inventory is high, and supply is sufficient. Low vegetable prices suppress demand, and low feed prices have lowered the cost center. It is recommended to wait and see after continuous decline [7]. - **Live Pigs**: The live pig 2511 contract oscillated narrowly, and the live pig spot price fell slightly. Consumption is gradually recovering. The previous slaughter progress was slow, and the slaughter in August increased. In addition, group farms continued to reduce the

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, guiding investors to make decisions based on different market conditions. Summary by Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: On Tuesday, precious metals declined. London gold dropped 0.52% to $3315 per ounce. The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. Due to rumors of canceling export tax - rebates for photovoltaic modules, silver exports may increase, and it is advised to wait and see [1]. - **Silver**: The iShares silver ETF holdings decreased by 17 tons to 15339 tons. The inventory of silver in some regions changed, and it is recommended to wait and see due to potential export demand increase [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated weakly. Due to concerns about Powell's hawkish speech and overall market risk - appetite decline, the short - term driving factors are unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum contract price fell. With supply increasing and demand slightly improving as the peak season approaches, it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. - **Alumina**: The alumina contract price declined. With increasing production capacity and surplus pressure, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to sell call options if holding spot [2]. - **Zinc**: The zinc 2509 contract price dropped. Supply increased significantly, and it is in the consumption off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [3]. - **Lead**: The lead 2509 contract price rose slightly. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it is recommended to trade within a range [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price oscillated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand marginally improved. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to Xinjiang's production plan [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate contract price fell. Supply may be in short - supply from August to October, and demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to go long with a small position at low prices [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The polycrystalline silicon price oscillated. The supply may increase, and the demand is affected by the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to policy implementation [4]. - **Tin**: The tin price oscillated strongly. Considering supply and demand and inventory, it is recommended to trade with an interval - oscillation mindset [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The rebar contract price declined. The building material inventory increased, and the supply - demand is neutral - weak. It is recommended to take profit on the 10/1 reverse spread and wait and see [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore contract price decreased. The supply and demand are neutral - strong but marginally weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal contract price dropped. The supply is relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [5][6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean price continued to fall. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the domestic soybean market is affected by international factors. The short - term international market oscillates, and the domestic market follows the international cost [6]. - **Corn**: The corn 2511 contract was weak. Due to factors such as wheat substitution and increased imports, the price is expected to decline. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract price fell. Considering international and domestic supply and demand, it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price declined. Considering international and domestic supply and demand, it is recommended to wait and see and trade within the 13800 - 14200 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price dropped. The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is recommended to close long positions in the short - term and pay attention to production and policies [6][7]. - **Eggs**: The egg 2510 contract was weak. With sufficient supply and potential demand increase, the futures price is expected to decline [7]. - **Hogs**: The hog 2511 contract oscillated narrowly. The supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to expect the futures price to oscillate strongly at the end of the month [7]. - **Apples**: The apple price oscillated. The early - maturing apple price fluctuated, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE contract price slightly declined. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [8]. - **PVC**: The PVC V01 contract price fell. With potential export tariffs and increasing supply, the driving factors are unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see [8][9]. - **PTA**: The PX price is at a high level, and the PTA price is at a low level. PX is recommended to be long - allocated, and PTA can be shorted for processing fees or far - month contracts at high prices [9]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price fluctuated. With inventory reduction and strong raw material support, it is recommended to go long at low prices after a pull - back [9]. - **Glass**: The glass FG01 contract price declined. With weak supply - demand and inventory accumulation, it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The PP contract price slightly decreased. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving with the approaching peak season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [9]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply increased, and the inventory is at a low level. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **EB**: The EB contract price slightly declined. With potential supply increase and high downstream inventory, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA01 contract price fell. With high supply and inventory, it is recommended to wait and see due to potential production reduction [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Market conditions are complex and influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and international events. Different commodities show different trends, and investors are advised to make decisions based on specific market conditions [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract's closing price increased by 0.90% to 20700 yuan/ton, and the LME price was 2611 dollars/ton. Aluminum plants maintain high - load production, but the demand side shows a decline in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate. With increasing inventory, the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract's closing price rose 2.49% to 3208 yuan/ton. Some northern alumina plants are under maintenance, and supply has tightened. The short - term price is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to buy on dips and purchase call options [2]. - **Silicon**: The main 09 contract closed at 8470 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing in Yunnan, and inventory is gradually decreasing. The industry's production start - up elasticity is high, and the rebound pressure is large. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main LC2509 contract closed at 64180 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. Supply is increasing, and inventory has reached a new high. Although demand is expected to improve marginally, it is difficult to drive inventory reduction. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 08 contract closed at 41345 yuan/ton, up 2075 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and demand in July shows a decline in silicon wafer and battery cell production schedules. The market is influenced by rumors, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2510 contract closed at 3141 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton. Supply and demand are both weak, but inventory pressure is small due to low production. The futures discount has narrowed, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see and try the 10/1 reverse spread [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2509 contract closed at 764.5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Supply and demand are neutral, and inventory is decreasing. The iron water output is stable, and the futures valuation is moderately high. It is recommended to wait and see and set up a long position in the 2605 volume - to - ore ratio [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2509 contract closed at 906.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan/ton. Supply and demand are generally loose but improving. The futures are at a premium, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. The supply is loose in the near - term internationally, and the growth of US soybeans is normal in the long - term. The demand is dominated by South America in the short - term, and there are uncertainties in US new - crop soybeans. The short - term US soybeans are expected to fluctuate within a range, and the domestic market follows the international cost side. Attention should be paid to the USDA report [5]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price declined slightly. The annual supply - demand relationship has tightened marginally, but wheat substitution and increased imports of substitute grains suppress the price. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract closed at 5805 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. Brazil's ethanol blending ratio will increase, but the impact on the sugar - making ratio is limited. The domestic market follows the trend of raw sugar, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short in the futures market, sell call options, and lock in the price for sugar users [5]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, US cotton prices rebounded. US cotton exports increased, and Brazil's cotton production is expected to rise. In China, the cotton price fluctuated upward, and textile enterprise inventory decreased while yarn inventory increased. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - trading strategy [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The short - term Malaysian palm oil price declined. The production and export in Malaysia decreased in June, and inventory increased. The short - term price center is expected to move up with wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [5]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract declined slightly, and the spot price rose slightly. Supply is high, and although low prices stimulate demand, the high - temperature and high - humidity weather is not conducive to storage. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract rose slightly, and most of the spot prices declined. Supply is increasing, and high temperatures affect consumption. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract closed at 7783 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The price of apples in Shandong is stable. The early - maturing varieties' opening price may support the market, but if supply increases later, the market expectation may be revised downward. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing due to new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices, and imports are expected to decrease. Demand is improving at the end of the off - season. The short - term market will fluctuate, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts on price rebounds in the long - term [7]. - **PVC**: The v09 contract closed at 5040 yuan/ton, up 2.2%. Supply is expected to increase, and inventory has increased. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [7]. - **Rubber**: The main contract rose 2.86% to 14405 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase in the third quarter, and inventory is expected to decrease. The price increase is limited. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and hold the RU - NR long - spread [8]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract closed at 1090 yuan/ton, up 5.4%. Supply is increasing, and inventory is decreasing. The fundamental situation is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **PP**: The main contract rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is differentiated. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts on price rebounds in the long - term [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices declined due to the US tariff on Brazil and OPEC's production plan. Supply is expected to be in surplus, especially in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on price increases [8]. - **Styrene**: The main EB contract continued to rebound slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. The short - term market will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts on price rebounds in the long - term [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa09 contract closed at 1231 yuan/ton, up 3.7%. Supply is increasing after maintenance, and inventory is at a high level. The fundamental situation is weak, and it is recommended to short on price increases [9].

招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：上周贵金属市场大幅波动，以伦敦银计价的国际银价跌幅超过 10%；消息面，美国参议院通过预 算决议，特朗普税收、边境安全和军事优先事项法案获"关键突破"。经济数据方面，美国 3 月非农就业人口 增长 22.8 万，高于预期的增加 14 万，前值从增加 15.1 万下修为增加 11.7 万；3 月失业率升至 4.2%，预期 4.1%，前值 4.1%。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银进口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存增加 11 吨至 1186 吨，金交所白银库存上周增加 52 吨 1731 吨。伦敦 2 月库存减少 1056 吨至 22446 吨，主要流向美国。随着 黄金回调，白银价格也出现了明显回落。操作上，建议白银空单继续持有注意仓位或者做多金银比。风险点： 美国经济大幅衰退 基本金属 招商评论 | 铜 | 市场表现：清明节外盘铜期货市场暴跌，周一国内开盘前，美铜的暴跌依然继续，对应国内价格可能要去到 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 71000 元以下。观察黄金和比特币的情况，我们认为 ...