一元复始，市场启新。国内外主要投行近期陆续发布2026年度市场展望，对投资主线进行前瞻分析，成 为解读新一年投资方向的重要窗口。当前，全球宏观经济格局重塑，国内产业升级持续推进，A股加速 融入全球资本市场体系。 站在"十五五"规划开局之年，多家国内外投行认为，2026年全球资本回流中国的预期升温，有望为市场 注入增量活力。同时，资本市场盈利复苏趋势逐渐清晰，结构性机会凸显：科技革新、制造业全球化、 顺周期复苏成为核心主线，AI商业化、中企出海、资源品价值重估等方向备受关注。大宗商品方面， 黄金在央行购金和美联储降息周期支撑下有望续创新高，铜因供应受限与需求增长共振而被长期看好， 原油市场则面临供应过剩的压力。 ● 本报记者 葛瑶 胡雨 中信证券： 中国企业价值链地位将提升 "十五五"期间，中国企业在全球价值链中的位置有望进一步提升，将份额优势转化为定价权，这是A股 行情迈向低波动率上涨行情的基础。未来A股的基本面要置于全球市场需求中观察，而不是仅看本土需 求，中国资本市场也正从新兴市场逐步转型为成熟市场。A股不仅是中国的A股，也是全球的A股。 从行业配置看，有三大线索值得重视：一是资源品和传统制造产业提质升级 ...

"缭绫缭绫何所似？不似罗绡与纨绮。应似天台山上明月前，四十五尺瀑布泉。中有文章又奇绝，地铺 白烟花簇雪。"唐代诗人白居易曾如此咏叹丝绸的华美。 世界丝绸看中国，中国丝绸看苏杭。在这条被历史经纬交织的产业带上，苏州市吴江区始终占据着举足 轻重的地位——这里既有"中国蚕丝之乡"之称的震泽镇，也有"四大绸都"之一的盛泽镇。 发端于此的太湖雪股份有限公司（以下简称"太湖雪"），是一家以蚕丝被为核心，覆盖真丝床品、服 饰、饰品及茧艺文创的全品类企业，深耕行业二十余年，以"文化活化+科技革新+全域渠道"三重驱 动，将非遗技艺与现代发展深度融合，成为中国传统产业创新发展的鲜活样本。 日前，由《证券日报》与北京证券交易所联合策划的"2025北交所万里行"全媒体系列调研活动走进太湖 雪。记者深入企业蚕桑文化园、智能化生产车间与产品展示区，沉浸式探寻这家企业如何让丝绸文 化"活化"，用技术破解传统产业痛点，以多元渠道链接全球消费者，完成从区域品牌到丝绸产业领航者 的蝶变。 文化为魂： 让传统产业真正破圈 丝绸自古便有"软黄金"的美誉，它不仅是一种奢华面料，更是承载中华文明的重要符号。白居易笔下的 丝绸风华，如今在太湖雪的蚕桑文化 ...

时代之浪席卷法国工业界！ 近日，拥有近百年历史的家电大厂白朗集团（Brandt）被法国法院裁定进入司法清算程序。这一宣判代表这家 一度被誉为"法国工业明珠"的企业将终止其经营活动，其在法国本土的700多名员工将面临失业。 法国经济财政部对此表示"深感悲痛"，经济部长莱斯屈尔和负责工业事务的代表马丁重申，中央和地方政府此 前已承诺投入超过1700万欧元的公共资金以挽救集团，但最终由于"其他必要参与方不愿施以援手"，导致重组 方案流产。 值得注意的是，截至目前，法国白朗集团中国官网仍在展示。 白朗破产 该集团曾宣称，其98%的厨用家电真正做到了"法国制造"而非仅仅是组装，集团首席执行官埃米利曾强调：在 法国生产，这不是成本问题，而是价值问题。 然而，近年来，白朗集团在激烈的市场竞争中陷入严重财务危机，自今年10月1日起进入破产重整程序。大型 家电产业受制于房地产市场的低迷，年度销售额持续下降。同时，该集团也面临着来自外国品牌的竞争，以及 空气炸锅等小型厨用电器深受年轻人青睐而造成的市场冲击。 虽然白朗集团在今年年初才以庆典活动迎来了创建百年，并曾获得前产业振兴部长蒙特布尔的关注与支持，但 市场变化和科技革新的浪潮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing debate about the "AI bubble" is causing turmoil in global capital markets, but the AI industry still has significant market potential despite some stock price fluctuations [1][3][6] Market Performance - Since late October, the Nasdaq index has declined from a high of 24,000 points to around 22,000 points, with major tech stocks like Nvidia and Oracle experiencing notable drops of 10.33% and 14.99% respectively [3] - In the A-share market, technology stocks related to AI have also faced adjustments, particularly in sectors like consumer electronics and semiconductors [3] Financial Results - Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of $57.01 billion, exceeding market expectations, with a net profit of $31.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of 65%. However, this did not fully alleviate market concerns about the AI bubble, as Nvidia's stock fell by 3.15% following the report [3][4] Investment Sentiment - Organizations generally remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of the AI industry, viewing the current stock price fluctuations as potentially temporary [5][6] - Despite high valuations for leading AI companies, the long-term industrial trends and broad market space suggest that valuations are still within a reasonable range [6] Capital Expenditure Trends - Major tech companies are increasing capital expenditures, with Oracle's 5-year CDS prices rising by 167% since September, indicating heightened market sensitivity to economic performance and monetary policy [4] - Chinese tech companies are also significantly increasing their investments in AI, with Alibaba planning to potentially increase its previously announced capital expenditure of 380 billion yuan [9][10] Strategic Importance - AI is viewed as a critical component in national strategies and global leadership, with ongoing technological advancements indicating that the industry is far from reaching its peak [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market shows positive momentum with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index all experiencing slight increases, indicating investor confidence in the market's potential for growth [1] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.46%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.51%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gained 0.50% during the midday session [1] - The market's half-day trading volume reached HKD 113.95 billion [1] Sector Analysis - In the technology sector, Meituan-W saw a significant increase of 5.85%, followed by Huahong Semiconductor with a rise of 2.80%, JD Group-SW up by 1.96%, and BYD Electronics increasing by 1.89% [1] - Conversely, NIO-SW experienced a decline of 7.13%, and Bilibili-W fell by 2.43% [1] Foreign Investment Sentiment - Major foreign institutions, including JPMorgan and Aberdeen Investment, express a bullish outlook on Chinese assets, highlighting the growth potential of the technology sector and the valuation advantages of the Hong Kong stock market [1] - These institutions believe that the technology industry will benefit from policy support and market demand amid China's economic transformation [1] Future Outlook - Foreign investment firms anticipate that the technology-driven rally in the Hong Kong stock market will continue [1] - Investors are encouraged to focus on two types of opportunities: leading companies in high-end manufacturing sectors like AI and semiconductors, and growth companies with reasonable valuations and competitive advantages [1] - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to generate excess returns for investors, driven by the dual themes of "technological innovation and valuation recovery" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape is undergoing profound changes, with geopolitical conflicts, rising protectionism, and accelerated restructuring of industrial chains challenging the existing economic globalization system. For China, the driving force behind globalization is shifting from "bringing in" to "going out," with Chinese enterprises increasingly becoming significant players in global investment and innovation [1]. Group 1: Financial Institutions' Support for Chinese Enterprises Going Global - Chinese financial institutions are enhancing their overseas network, with major state-owned banks establishing branches in 64 and 49 countries and regions, creating a service system covering six continents [2]. - There is a continuous strengthening of resource integration between domestic and international markets, with commercial banks supporting Belt and Road projects and securities firms facilitating financing and mergers in global capital markets [2]. - Financial institutions are innovating their product and service offerings, including special loans for overseas infrastructure and customized services for cross-border e-commerce and cash management [2]. - Emerging technologies are widely applied, with digital technologies upgrading cross-border financial services, such as the "Cross-border e-commerce" initiative leading to over fivefold growth in e-commerce settlement volume in three years [2]. Group 2: Risk Management and Future Recommendations - Large state-owned commercial banks have established country risk management and stress testing mechanisms to address uncertainties in overseas operations [3]. - Recommendations for enhancing support for Chinese enterprises going global include optimizing overseas layouts, improving multi-level offshore financial service systems, and innovating financial products and services [4][5]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to expand the use of cross-border RMB, providing loans for project construction and exploring RMB products in regions like ASEAN, Europe, and Latin America [5]. - A comprehensive cross-border risk management system is proposed, integrating macro and industry data to develop intelligent country risk assessment platforms [6]. Group 3: Collaboration Between Finance and Industry - Financial institutions are advised to leverage their connections with local governments and organizations to provide market consulting and policy training for new outbound enterprises [6]. - The release of the white paper by First Financial and Bank of China marks a significant step in the globalization journey of Chinese financial services, aiming to become an indispensable strategic support for Chinese enterprises' global layout [6].

Core Insights - The global economic landscape is undergoing significant transformation due to geopolitical conflicts, rising protectionism, and accelerated restructuring of supply chains, challenging the existing framework of economic globalization [1] - Chinese enterprises are shifting from "bringing in" to "going out," leveraging their advantages in manufacturing, supply chains, and technology to expand into overseas markets, becoming increasingly important players in global investment and innovation [1] - The need for financial services to support Chinese enterprises in their internationalization process has become more critical than ever, especially in the context of rising uncertainties in the external environment [1] Group 1: Financial Institutions' Support Mechanisms - Chinese financial institutions are enhancing their overseas network, with major state-owned banks establishing branches in 64 and 49 countries and regions, creating a global service system [2] - There is a continuous effort to integrate domestic and international resources, with commercial banks supporting Belt and Road projects and securities firms facilitating financing and mergers in global capital markets [2] - Financial institutions are innovating their product and service offerings, including specialized loans for overseas infrastructure and customized services for cross-border e-commerce [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements and Risk Management - Emerging technologies are widely applied, with digital solutions upgrading cross-border financial services, such as the "Cross-border e-commerce" platform significantly increasing transaction volumes [3] - Large state-owned banks have established country risk management and stress testing mechanisms to address uncertainties in overseas operations, while policy insurance companies provide credit investigations and risk analysis [3] Group 3: Future Recommendations for Financial Services - Recommendations include optimizing overseas layouts by establishing regional headquarters in ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa to better serve Chinese enterprises [4] - A multi-tiered overseas financial service system is suggested, leveraging the strengths of various financial institutions to comprehensively meet the financial needs of Chinese enterprises [4] - Financial institutions are encouraged to innovate products and services, such as forming syndicate loans with local banks and offering diverse financing tools for outbound enterprises [4] Group 4: Integration and Risk Management Strategies - The integration of domestic and international services is emphasized, with banks streamlining processes and exploring global fund management models [5] - Expanding the use of cross-border RMB is recommended, with banks increasing credit limits for RMB loans to support project financing and acquisitions [6] - A comprehensive cross-border risk management system is proposed, utilizing macro and industry data to develop intelligent risk assessment platforms [6] Group 5: Collaboration with Local Governments - Financial institutions are advised to leverage their connections with local governments and organizations to provide market consulting and policy training for new outbound enterprises [6] - The report highlights the importance of financial services in supporting the globalization journey of Chinese enterprises, marking a new chapter in the global financial service landscape [6]

Group 1: Apple and Berkshire Hathaway - Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in Apple by 20 million shares in Q2 2025, but Apple remains its largest holding with 280 million shares [1] - This reduction is the largest sale of Apple stock since Q3 2024, indicating a potential asset adjustment by Berkshire [1] - Berkshire's net stock sales for the quarter amounted to approximately $3 billion, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of selling more stocks than buying [1] Group 2: Apple MacBook Issues - A known bug in MacBook's notch display has caused resolution adaptation issues, leading to blurry graphics in several mainstream games [2][4] - The problem has persisted for two years and is attributed to an error in Apple's system API, which defaults to a resolution that includes the notch and menu bar [2][4] Group 3: SpaceX Developments - SpaceX plans to conduct its 10th Starship test flight on August 24, 2025, from Texas Starbase, following three previous unsuccessful attempts this year [5] - The upcoming flight will utilize Booster 16 and Ship 37, both of which are Block 2 improvements, with a combined height of 120 meters [5] Group 4: Geely and Automotive Innovations - Geely announced the launch of its AI cockpit technology, expected to introduce the Flyme Auto 2 operating system on August 20, 2025 [6] - The Flyme Auto system supports seamless integration between mobile applications and vehicle systems, enhancing user experience [6] Group 5: Microsoft Windows Updates - Microsoft is reportedly enhancing the dark mode feature in Windows 11, addressing previous shortcomings where many interfaces remained in light mode [9] - New dark mode themes have been observed in the file explorer and other system dialogs, improving overall user interface consistency [9] Group 6: Xpeng Motors Performance - Xpeng Motors' new P7 model achieved a remarkable 3961 km in a 24-hour endurance test, surpassing previous records set by competitors [10] - This test validates the vehicle's overall performance and battery capabilities, showcasing the company's commitment to excellence [10]

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market is facing a systemic risk, characterized as a short but intense storm, with the U.S. stock market entering a bear phase. However, this does not imply that all global markets will follow suit, as China's capital market may present mid-term opportunities after a short-term risk assessment [2][3][13]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. stock market has clearly entered a bear phase, influenced by trade wars and tariffs, which have detrimental effects on global wealth [4][13]. - Recent declines in gold and Bitcoin indicate a shift in market logic from risk aversion to liquidity shocks [5][15]. - The VIX volatility index and other indicators suggest that short-term liquidity concerns are overshadowing market sentiment [14][15]. Group 2: Economic Predictions - The U.S. economy is expected to face recession, with inflation risks likely to rise in the second half of the year [7][20]. - The impact of tariffs could lead to a 0.5 percentage point decrease in U.S. GDP growth over 25 years, with a potential 1% decline this year [20]. - The Federal Reserve's ability to respond to market conditions will be significantly less than in 2020, limiting its capacity for quantitative easing [8][21]. Group 3: China Market Outlook - The Chinese capital market's performance will depend on internal factors and fundamental conditions rather than external shocks [9][26]. - China's risk premium is currently at a historical high, indicating that the economy may have reached a bottom, with potential for recovery once policies are implemented [27][28]. - The mid-term outlook for China's capital market is optimistic, driven by technological advancements and new consumption trends [28][35]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on active defense, avoiding leverage, and waiting for market stabilization before making significant investments [40][41]. - Strategic asset allocation should prioritize technology, new consumption sectors, and traditional assets like gold and military stocks [43]. - The current market environment presents a unique opportunity for value investment, particularly in the context of China's economic resilience and potential recovery [38][44].