Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company with a target price of USD 22.50, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of USD 18.29 [2][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 4.43 billion in 1Q, representing a 19% year-over-year increase, while adjusted net profit decreased by 5% to RMB 587 million [3][16]. - Domestic revenue was RMB 2.49 billion, up 9% year-over-year, with a net closure of 111 domestic stores [3][16]. - Overseas revenue reached RMB 1.59 billion, a 30% increase year-over-year, with a net addition of 95 overseas stores [5][16]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points year-over-year, while the adjusted net profit margin (NPM) was 13.3%, down 3.3 percentage points [8][16]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 20.9 billion, RMB 24.9 billion, and RMB 29.2 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be RMB 2.76 billion, RMB 3.66 billion, and RMB 4.57 billion [10][17]. - The company anticipates a net store opening of 200-300 in China and 500-600 overseas in 2025, focusing on high-quality development and channel upgrades [4][5]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The sales expense ratio increased to 23.1%, up 4.4 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to expenses related to direct stores [8][16]. - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to improve gradually, with expectations of 13.2%, 14.7%, and 15.6% for 2025-2027 [10][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company with a target price of USD 22.50, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of USD 18.29 [2][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 4.43 billion in 1Q, representing a 19% year-over-year increase, while adjusted net profit decreased by 5% to RMB 587 million [3][16]. - Domestic revenue was RMB 2.49 billion, up 9% year-over-year, with a net closure of 111 domestic stores [3][16]. - Overseas revenue reached RMB 1.59 billion, a 30% increase year-over-year, with a net addition of 95 overseas stores [5][16]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 44.2%, up 0.8 percentage points year-over-year, while the adjusted net profit margin (NPM) was 13.3%, down 3.3 percentage points [8][16]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 20.9 billion, RMB 24.9 billion, and RMB 29.2 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be RMB 2.76 billion, RMB 3.66 billion, and RMB 4.57 billion [10][17]. - The company anticipates a net store opening of 200-300 in China and 500-600 overseas in 2025 [4][5]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The sales expense ratio increased to 23.1%, up 4.4 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to expenses related to direct stores [8][16]. - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to improve gradually, with expectations of 13.2%, 14.7%, and 15.6% for 2025-2027 [10][14]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on high-quality development and channel upgrades in the domestic market, with a strategy of opening larger stores while closing smaller ones [4][9]. - In the overseas market, the company aims to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, particularly in the U.S. market, while replicating successful domestic strategies [5][9].

Financial Performance - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 4.43 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, exceeding the market estimate of 4.41 billion RMB [1][3] - Net profit for the quarter was 416.5 million RMB, down 28.8% from 586 million RMB in the same period last year [1][3] - Adjusted net profit was 587.2 million RMB, below the expected 661.3 million RMB [1][3] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 23.4%, down from 25.9% in Q1 2024 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the MINISO brand reached 4.09 billion RMB, a 16.5% increase, with mainland China contributing 2.49 billion RMB (up 9.1%) and overseas markets contributing 1.59 billion RMB (up 30.3%) [4][5] - TOP TOY brand revenue was 340 million RMB, a significant increase of 58.9%, driven by rapid growth in average store count [4][5] Store Expansion - As of March 31, 2025, the total number of stores for the group was 7,768, with a net increase of 978 stores year-on-year [5][6] - The number of MINISO stores reached 7,488, with 4,275 located in mainland China and 3,213 overseas, marking a net increase of 241 and 617 stores respectively [6][7] Management Commentary - The CEO expressed confidence in achieving sustainable high-quality growth, attributing revenue growth to a strong recovery in same-store sales and strategic store network development [8] - The company plans to enhance collaboration with overseas partners, upgrade store formats, and improve operational efficiency to unlock expansion potential [8]

1）渠道扩张：截至24年底，公司拥有"优能达"服务商 3400 多家，终端商超 12 万家，已实现全国2742个区县服务商及终端商的注册；2）出口推进：2024年公司海外市场销量 同比增长约68.49%，积极开拓海外主机配套业务，2024年新获7个海外配套定点；分区制定海外营销策略与产品清单，开展精准营销；3）产能建设：截至24年，公司国内铅酸 电池产能约3500万KVAH/年、国外铅酸电池产能约500万KVAH/年，废旧铅酸电池回收处理能力86万吨/年，并持续优化产能布局，提升领先优势。 低估值细分赛道龙头，渠道升级、业务开拓打开成长空间 骆驼股份系列 车中旭霞 深度报告： 《骆驼股份-601311-深度报告：汽车低压电池龙头，后装市场与海外市场打开成长空间》——20230606 《骆驼股份-601311-深度报告：聚焦起动电池，细分龙头再起航》——20200106 点评： 《骆驼股份（601311.SH）： 三季度净利润同比增长44%，盈利能力同环比提升》-20241025 《骆驼股份（601311.SH）：二季度净利润同比增长35%，海内外业务持续发力》-20240820 《骆驼股份（601311.SH ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][25]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth in 2024, with projected revenue of 15.592 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.75%, and a net profit of 614 million yuan, up 7.26% year-on-year [1][8]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas and domestic business, with significant growth in automotive low-voltage lead-acid battery sales and a strong performance in the lithium battery sector [2][3][17]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.90 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), with a dividend payout ratio of 55.4% [1][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company expects to achieve a revenue of 15.592 billion yuan, with a net profit of 614 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 593 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 10.75%, 7.26%, and 10.85% respectively [1][8]. - For Q4 2024, the revenue is projected to be 4.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, while the net profit is expected to decline by 26.3% year-on-year [1][8]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company has maintained stable cost control, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios of 5.5%, 2.8%, and 1.9% respectively in Q4 2024 [2][18]. - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 is reported at 15.6%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.7 percentage points but an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][18]. Business Expansion and Market Strategy - The company has expanded its distribution channels significantly, with over 3,400 "You Neng Da" service providers and 120,000 terminal stores across the country [3][17]. - The overseas market has seen a substantial increase, with sales growing approximately 68.49% year-on-year, contributing significantly to overall performance [3][17]. - The company is focusing on upgrading its channels and expanding its lithium battery business, which is expected to provide additional growth opportunities [3][25]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 860 million yuan, 1.065 billion yuan, and 1.257 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.73, 0.91, and 1.07 yuan [4][5][25]. - The company is well-positioned in the low-voltage lead-acid battery market, with significant growth potential in both the aftermarket and overseas markets [25].