这一切的背后是一个无可回避的现实——美国的经济已经到了崩溃的边缘。最新的经济数据显示，7月 新增的非农就业岗位仅为7万人，远远低于市场预期的10万。前两个月的就业数据更是惨不忍睹，甚至 被大幅修正，减少了25万人。面对这一惨状，特朗普显得异常焦虑，甚至立即对劳工局局长进行追责， 想通过甩锅来转移公众的注意力，甚至不无讽刺地给这场失败扣上"拜登的人"的标签。然而这些都只是 表面的做戏，百姓失业了，数据怎么修正也无法改变经济下行的趋势。 特朗普终于在最后关头做出了决定，在众人期待的最后一晚签署了那份关税"休战令"。中美之间持续的 关税战再度被延长了90天，看似事态得以缓解，但背后依旧暗流汹涌。这场"停战"，表面上给美国争取 了一口气，实则不过是特朗普给自己一个喘息的机会，暂时避免了更大的经济冲击。尽管他按下了暂停 键，心中却难掩不甘情绪——他不愿意让外界觉得自己是被中国逼迫到没有退路的，而是拼命装作一副 强硬的姿态。 目前的形势已经相当明了：中国方面明确宣布继续暂停对美国加征24%的关税，仅将10%的税率保留作 为底牌，而特朗普只能勉强随声附和，在社交平台上简短宣布延续这一暂停措施直到11月10日。两国随 即发布 ...

野村警告称，美国和其他国家之间的仓促关税谈判正加剧经济不确定性，而通胀风险与历史重演的可能性要求美联储和日本央行等央行谨慎行事。 混乱的关税谈判 特朗普政府单方面宣布的关税政策已导致全球混乱。美国同时与多国进行谈判，却因人员短缺而仓促达成"协议"，引发细节模糊与争议。例如，美日协议最 初未明确15%的关税是附加税率还是总税率上限，后续才确认其为最高总税率。这种草率性源于美国贸易代表办公室(USTR)仅有250名员工，而商务部国际 贸易管理局(ITA)约2200人，但实际投入谈判的人力有限。 关税本就会降低经济效率，而特朗普政府的做法——如对印度征收50%的关税(25%互惠关税+25%附加关税)——更忽视战略考量。报告指出，关税不确定性 使企业难以制定商业计划，可能导致整体经济活动进一步收缩。 黑色星期一的重演风险 野村以1985年广场协议为类比，强调当前形势与历史的相似性。广场协议后，美元兑日元在17个月内暴跌36.5%，但美国股市却创新高，通胀初期未显只因 企业为保市场份额而压缩利润。然而，美元跌破150日元触发日本投资者抛售美元债券，导致美债收益率飙升。 时任美联储主席保罗.沃尔克的干预稳定了市场，但其继 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent pullback in tech stocks creates a buying opportunity, but the outlook may turn pessimistic if signs of "stagflation" emerge [1][2][15] Group 1: Market Analysis - The recent decline in U.S. stocks is driven by a sell-off in tech stocks, making next week's Nvidia earnings report more significant than the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting [3][4] - The S&P 500 index experienced its worst single-day drop in nearly three weeks, while the Nasdaq is heading towards its largest two-day decline since April [4] - Momentum factor has retraced about 7%, which is within the historical normal range, indicating that the adjustment is not unprecedented [8] Group 2: Key Variables to Monitor - Investors should closely watch for potential "stagflation signals," including weak PMI data, worsening unemployment figures, and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting [2][15] - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is seen as a critical catalyst that could reignite interest in AI investments [2][16] Group 3: Jackson Hole Meeting Insights - The market has low expectations for the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting, with no significant new information anticipated from Fed Chair Powell [9][11] - The decision on whether the Fed will cut rates in September will depend heavily on upcoming economic data, including the non-farm payroll report and consumer price index [12][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent decline in U.S. tech stocks presents a buying opportunity, although investors should monitor key variables closely [1][10] - The recent sell-off in tech stocks has led to a significant drop in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, with the Nasdaq heading towards its largest two-day decline since April [3][4] - The momentum factor has retreated about 7%, which is within the historical normal range, indicating that the adjustment is not unusual [6] Group 2 - The upcoming Nvidia earnings report is considered more significant than the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting, as it may reignite interest in AI investments [2][9] - Market expectations for the Jackson Hole meeting are low, with no substantial new information anticipated from Fed Chair Powell [7][8] - A strong Nvidia earnings report could potentially drive a rebound in tech stocks and the overall market [12]

Group 1: Currency Exchange and Economic Outlook - After experiencing appreciation of the RMB against the USD from April to June, the exchange rate has stabilized between 7.152 and 7.2123 since July, with expectations of continued strength due to factors like investment growth and consumption policies [1] - The risk of the US economy entering "stagflation" is increasing, which may lead to a weakening of the USD in the future [1][2] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will likely widen the interest rate differential between China and the US, supporting the RMB's strength against the USD [6] Group 2: US Economic Conditions - In July, the US labor market showed weakness with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, significantly below the expected 104,000, indicating a deteriorating employment situation [3] - Despite weak employment data, consumer spending remains resilient, primarily driven by wealthier consumers, which may mask underlying economic weaknesses [2] - The impact of tariffs on the US economy is showing a lag, with inflationary pressures emerging as core CPI increased by 0.3 percentage points in July [3][4] Group 3: China's Economic Performance - High-frequency data in August indicates a continued positive trend in China's economy, with construction project funding rates improving [5] - The Chinese government has introduced policies to stimulate consumption, including personal consumption loan interest subsidies, aimed at enhancing financial flows into the consumer sector [5] - The real estate sector shows signs of recovery, with a slight narrowing of the year-on-year decline in sales compared to July [5] Group 4: Interest Rate Dynamics - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is increasing, which could lead to a decline in US Treasury yields and open up room for rate cuts by the Chinese central bank [6] - The interest rate differential between China and the US has widened, with the 10-year Treasury yield spread reaching -2.5524 percentage points as of August 18 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the specter of stagflation in the U.S. is influencing global financial markets, prompting investors to urgently adjust their asset allocations to address the dual threats of economic slowdown and high inflation due to tariff impacts [1][2] - Approximately 70% of global investors expect stagflation in the next 12 months, with recent data indicating a significant slowdown in job growth and rising unemployment, alongside higher-than-target inflation rates [2] - Despite concerns about stagflation, global stock markets remain near historical highs, suggesting that the market has not fully priced in the risks associated with stagflation [2] Group 2 - In a stagflation environment, inflation-hedging assets are becoming the preferred choice for risk-averse investors, with gold being highlighted as a traditional safe-haven asset [3] - In the first half of 2025, global gold ETF inflows reached 230 tons, marking the largest increase since 2020, indicating a growing interest in gold as a protective investment [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently in a phase of horizontal consolidation at high levels, with a potential downward trend forming [4] - The previous trading day saw gold prices retreat after a brief rise, maintaining a bearish outlook as prices remain below key moving averages [4] - Key support levels for gold prices are identified at $3320 and $3311, while resistance levels are noted at $3338 and $3345 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.62% from August 11 to August 15, ranking among the top in all primary industries [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The metal new materials sub-sector rose by 7.67%, while the industrial metals sector increased by 5.31%. Energy metals and small metals sectors saw gains of 2.79% and 1.73%, respectively. In contrast, the precious metals sector declined by 3.45% [2][3] - As of August 15, copper prices were reported at $9,760 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME), reflecting a slight decrease of 0.08% week-on-week, while Shanghai copper was priced at 79,060 yuan per ton, up 0.73% [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply disruptions in Chile, including a mine closure due to an earthquake and damage from a collapse, are supporting copper prices despite a lack of demand improvement during the off-season [3] - The aluminum sector is facing a continuous increase in social inventory, with a 3.91% rise to 58.75 million tons. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry reached 44.015 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week-on-week [4][5] Group 3: Inflation and Precious Metals - U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, leading to a reduction in interest rate cut expectations, which has pressured gold prices. As of August 15, COMEX gold closed at $3,381.70 per ounce, down 2.21% week-on-week [6] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also rose significantly, suggesting that tariff-related import costs are increasing [6]

Core Viewpoint - The extension of the tariff ceasefire between the US and China for 90 days until November 10 is a strategic move to allow for potential high-level discussions during the APEC summit, reflecting the delicate balance of negotiations and economic pressures [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Ceasefire and Economic Context - The US Treasury Secretary had previously communicated the intention to extend the tariff pause, but the signing by Trump was delayed, indicating political sensitivities around appearing to compromise with China [4]. - Recent employment data shows a significant drop in non-farm jobs, with only 73,000 added last month, far below expectations, and a revised total loss of 258,000 jobs over previous months, highlighting economic strain [4][6]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest in three years, with job losses in manufacturing and retail sectors, suggesting a deteriorating economic environment that pressures the administration to avoid further tariff escalations [4][6]. Group 2: Political Dynamics and Future Negotiations - Trump's reluctance to take responsibility for economic issues is evident as he shifts blame for poor employment statistics, indicating a desire to maintain political capital while managing economic fallout [6]. - The potential for a framework agreement during the APEC summit could lead to an extension or partial cancellation of tariffs, but failure to reach an agreement may result in increased geopolitical tensions and pressure on China [10]. - Analysts suggest that Trump may be inclined to make concessions during negotiations to maintain a favorable public image, despite the underlying reality of the US conceding to China [10].

Macro News - The Bank of Japan is experiencing internal divisions, with some board members advocating for a shift away from the unclear "potential inflation" indicator to focus more on overall inflation and inflation expectations, potentially paving the way for an interest rate hike in October [1] Market Analysis - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict may soon conclude, which could benefit risk assets while negatively impacting safe-haven assets [2] - U.S. July core CPI inflation rate has increased due to import tariffs raising commodity prices, but the potential downward revision of non-farm employment numbers from May to July suggests a "stagflation" scenario, leading to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, October, and December [2] Gold Market Analysis - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar index, while easing market risk sentiment ahead of the U.S.-Russia leaders' meeting has led to a high-low fluctuation in gold prices [3] - International gold prices closed at $3,355.88 per ounce, up 0.23%, with an intraday high of $3,370; domestic gold futures prices are experiencing frequent fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors [3] Investment Strategy - It is suggested to construct a bull spread using call options when prices pull back to key support levels, effectively lowering the cost of long positions [4] Silver Market Dynamics - A weak U.S. dollar is supporting silver prices, along with continued inflows into ETFs; however, weak industrial demand makes the market susceptible to fluctuations driven by investor sentiment [5] - International silver prices rose 1.57% to $38.502 per ounce, reaching a nearly three-week high, with domestic silver prices following the international trend [5] - In the short term, silver prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, but there is overall upward potential, suggesting the use of bull spread strategies to capture segment opportunities [5]

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value but slightly below the market expectation of 2.72%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the previous 0.3% and above the expected 0.16%[2] - Core CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding the previous value of 2.9% and the market expectation of 3.04%[2] Key Contributors and Trends - The high CPI in July was primarily driven by increases in transportation services, household furniture, and clothing prices, while energy and rent prices saw a significant decline[2] - The market has adjusted its interest rate cut expectations, with the probability of three rate cuts this year increasing significantly, although the company maintains a view of only one cut[2] Economic Indicators - The Michigan University one-year inflation expectation decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 4.5%, while the five-year expectation fell to 3.4%[2] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 115,000[6] Core Inflation Insights - Core CPI's rise was mainly due to service price increases, with core services up by 0.3% month-on-month, while core goods remained stable at 0.2%[7] - The rental prices, a significant component of CPI, showed a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, down from the previous 3.8%[6] Risks and Outlook - There are concerns about potential second-round inflation risks due to new tariffs imposed on countries without trade agreements, which could affect inflation expectations and trade prospects[2][6] - The ongoing high inflation and slowing economic growth signal potential stagflation risks in the U.S. economy[6]