此前所有抑制风险偏好的因素，无论是长期美国国债收益率上升、失业率触及2021年以来高点，还是部 分大型消费企业业绩平平，最终都只是"昙花一现"，因为逢低买入者持续向美股注入资金。 股市多头拥有"历史数据撑腰"。摩根大通私人银行全球投资机会部门董事总经理克雷格·科恩指出，历 史上，美联储曾在标普500指数处于距历史高点1%区间内时降息16次，其数据显示，此后每次该指数在 一年后的表现均为上涨，平均回报率接近15%。 （原标题：美联储降息在即，交易员押注25基点定价，股市波动料低于常态） 智通财经APP获悉，华尔街交易员几乎笃定，美联储将于今日晚些时候宣布降息25个基点。他们同样确 信，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将释放进一步降息的信号，以支撑疲软的劳动力市场。但与此同时，市 场依然存在大幅波动的可能。 这一预期推动美国股市在近几周攀升至历史新高，也让期权交易专家押注：市场对美联储政策决议的反 应将比往常更为平稳。花旗集团美国股票交易策略主管斯图尔特·凯泽整理的数据显示，预计标普500指 数周三单日涨跌幅度约为0.72%，略低于过去八次美联储会议期间0.77%的平均实际波动幅度。 然而，市场出现突破性波动的潜在可能性 ...

Group 1 - The Indian Rupee (INR) has strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive trading day, reaching a two-week high of approximately 87.90, driven by positive statements from Indian Prime Minister Modi and US President Trump regarding bilateral relations and the Ukraine situation [1] - The positive sentiment was bolstered by a recent meeting between US and Indian trade representatives in New Delhi, indicating a potential thaw in trade relations that had previously been strained due to tariff increases on Indian oil imports from Russia [1] - Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) have significantly reduced their stock sell-off in India, with total sales amounting to 10,204.54 billion INR since September, compared to much higher figures of 47,666.68 billion INR and 46,902.92 billion INR in July and August respectively [1] Group 2 - The overall weakness of the US Dollar has also contributed to the strengthening of the Rupee, with the Dollar Index (DXY) dropping to a two-month low of 96.70, as market expectations lean towards a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3] - There is a 96% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, with some analysts predicting three rate cuts by 2025 [3] - The USD/INR exchange rate has shown signs of uncertainty, with support around 87.65 and resistance at 88.65, indicating a mixed short-term trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with a general expectation of a 25 basis point cut, amidst concerns of weak employment, persistent inflation above target, and increasing political pressure [1][4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis point cut to the 4.00%-4.25% range, marking the first cut since December of the previous year, with 105 out of 107 analysts predicting this outcome [1]. - The potential for a "four-way split" in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting is discussed, with differing opinions on whether to cut rates or maintain them [1][5][9]. - The FOMC statement and dot plot will provide insights into the Fed's future rate cut expectations, with speculation on whether the statement will acknowledge rising employment risks [4][8]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation Concerns - Recent employment data has shown significant weakness, with a downward revision of 910,000 jobs over the past year, leading to increased expectations for a rate cut [6]. - The labor market's deterioration has made it easier for officials to agree on a 25 basis point cut, although debates on the pace of future cuts remain complex due to ongoing inflation concerns [6][7]. - Political pressures are influencing the Fed's decision-making process, with potential implications for the voting dynamics within the FOMC [5][9]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December, with a potential for two additional cuts in 2026, bringing rates down to the 3%-3.25% range [11][12]. - Market reactions are expected to vary based on the outcome of the Fed's decision, with a 47.5% probability of a dovish 25 basis point cut potentially leading to a 0.5%-1% increase in the S&P 500 index [13]. - The market is advised to prepare for potential volatility, with key economic data releases in the coming weeks that could influence investor sentiment [13].

美国参议院在本周一仅以一票的微弱优势，通过了对白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰出任美联储理事的提名；同样是在周一，美联储理事库克则在经历 了与特朗普政府的官司后，"侥幸"留在了美联储理事会中。不难预见的是，这两位美国总统特朗普眼里的"亲信"与"眼中钉"，很可能会先在美联储内 部上演一场"口水战"。而特朗普在本周早些时候，则已明确呼吁美联储"大幅降息"！ 抛开这些政治纷争，投资者也料将密切聚焦美联储主席鲍威尔本周的表态，并寻找从最新点阵图与季度经济预测探寻未来数月利率走向的线索。这些 预测将与利率决议将于北京时间周四凌晨2点同步公布，鲍威尔的新闻发布会则会在30分钟后开始。 9月17日，正如同有着"新美联储通讯社"之称的著名记者Nick Timiraos所形容的那样，今晚美联储即将召开多年来最为奇特的一场议息会议…… 外界普遍预计，受近期就业增长放缓推动，美联储官员将在周三为期两天的会议结束时降息25个基点。在上月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储 主席鲍威尔其实就已暗示了降息的临近，当时他转向优先考虑就业问题，而非挥之不去的通胀担忧。 然而，尽管美联储时隔9个月后的重启降息，本身就已足够引人瞩目，但今晚这个特殊议息 ...

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver TD is around 9887 yuan per kilogram, showing a decline of 1.76% from the opening price of 10111 yuan per kilogram [1] - The highest price reached today was 10124 yuan per kilogram, while the lowest was 9872 yuan per kilogram, indicating a bearish short-term trend in silver TD [1][5] Group 2 - The FOMC's internal divisions are likely to be reflected in the "dot plot," which shows Federal Reserve officials' predictions for future benchmark interest rates [3] - The dot plot may reveal whether officials are inclined to continue rate cuts in the upcoming meetings in October and December, with a first-time release of 2026 rate forecasts [3][4] - Market expectations are pricing in significant easing, with investors anticipating a total of 75 basis points cut this year and another 75 basis points in 2026 [3] - The anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to have a significant negative impact on the US dollar, reducing its attractiveness to international capital [3][4]

智通财经APP获悉，在美联储即将作出决策之际，彭博美元现货指数已逼近2022年3月以来的最低水平，连续第三日下跌0.1%，市场正密切关注央行政策动 向及未来降息节奏指引。欧元与日元引领主要货币兑美元走强，交易员在等待美联储公告的同时，也在评估年内降息路径的更多细节。 市场参与者还将重点关注美联储公布的点阵图，该图表将反映政策制定者对未来数月货币政策宽松幅度的预测。 图2 图1 此次美联储自美东时间周二起召开为期两天的货币政策会议，背景是就业市场出现疲软迹象——8月就业增长明显放缓，失业率升至2021年以来最高水平， 加之上周修正数据显示，截至3月的年度就业增长远弱于此前预期，引发市场对劳动力市场加速恶化的担忧。 同时，美国总统特朗普持续施压要求降息，而美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的鸽派表态进一步强化了市场对降息的预期。 Monex分析师John Doyle指出，当前市场几乎每天都在消化美联储进一步降息的可能性，到年底累计降息75个基点已成为新的基准情景。 掉期市场交易员已完全计入今日降息25个基点的预期，降息50个基点的概率极低——即便周二公布的零售销售数据强于预期，也未动摇这一押注，仅暗示降 息幅度 ...

时隔一年，市场押注美联储重启降息。 北京时间9月18日凌晨，市场将迎来美联储9月议息会议结果。截至发稿，芝商所CME Group数据显示， 本次会议降息25个基点的可能性为96.1%，降息50个基点的可能性为3.9%。 一年前，2024年9月，美联储启动了四年多来的首次降息，但在降息100个基点后便止步不前。本次市场 押注美联储重启降息，可持续性尚不可知。 此次会议还将公布最新的《经济预测摘要》（SEP）与点阵图，受访专家认为，本次点阵图透露的信息 或更为"鸽派"。"鸽派"指较为宽松的货币政策，即押注美联储降息幅度较大。 美联储的"政治化"也引人关注。受访专家指出，从长期看，美联储货币政策走向或受到新任美联储主席 的影响，但其行动仍受到美联储框架的限制。 市场押注降息25个基点 首先来看数据，美国劳工统计局发布的数据显示，美国8月CPI同比上涨2.9%，与市场预期的2.9%持 平，前值为2.7%；核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，与市场预期的3.1%持平，前值为3.1%；非农就业人口增加 2.2万人，预期7.5万人，前值7.3万人；失业率4.3%，预期4.3%，前值 4.2%。 一般而言，通胀反弹指向维持较高利率， ...

美联储9月利率决议公布在即，美股小幅震荡，等待可能的降息落地。当地时间9月16日，美股三大股指小幅下跌；热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金 龙指数大涨1.76%，续创阶段新高。 当前市场认为，美联储本月降息或已"板上钉钉"，因此伴随着最新利率决议一同公布的"点阵图"更加值得关注。机构研判，2025年全年降息次数的指引将 在2次和3次之间。 大宗商品方面，隔夜伦敦金现货价格盘中首次突破每盎司3700美元关口。机构认为，当下黄金阶段性具备适中的风险回报比与战术性配置价值。 最新非农就业数据大幅下修叠加通胀数据整体保持稳定，市场研判美联储9月降息或"板上钉钉"，因此相较于是否降息，即将公布的"点阵图"是当下市场 关注的重中之重。 德邦证券研判，"点阵图"会否按照全年降息3次来排列存在未知数。如果美联储过于"鸽派"，会给独立性带来伤害，进而冲击美元信用；如果美联储对后 续降息展望弱于预期，当前市场运行的降息交易主线将受到显著冲击，市场波动将明显放大。 东吴证券认为，往后看，由于美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰将参加本次议息会议，因此2025年全年降息次数的指引将在2次和3次之间。此外，由于明年3月所有 地方联储主席都将经过美联 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates for the first time in 2025, with a focus on the impact of a weak job market, persistent inflation, and increasing pressure from the White House [1][2] - The most recent dot plot indicated that Fed officials generally anticipate two rate cuts this year, with a consensus prediction of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [1][2] - There are differing opinions on the aggressiveness of future rate cuts, with some economists predicting multiple cuts in the coming months, while others suggest a more cautious approach [3][4] Group 2 - Wilmington Trust's chief economist predicts that the Fed will maintain a neutral stance on future rate cuts, but expects three cuts by the end of this year and three more in early next year, bringing the policy rate down to a range of 2.75% to 3% [4] - Concerns about the labor market's weakness and potential negative GDP growth have led to predictions of a 50% chance of recession and worsening unemployment [5] - Former Kansas City Fed President George emphasizes the need for the Fed to balance its dual mandate of employment and inflation, noting that recent job market data has been disappointing [6]

The Federal Reserve is widely expected this week to make its first interest rate cut of 2025, but the bigger question for investors is how many more cuts could be on the way as the central bank contends with a weak job market, sticky inflation, and mounting White House pressure. One clue will come in the form of the Fed's "dot plot," a chart updated quarterly that shows each official's prediction about the direction of the central bank's benchmark interest rate. The last dot plot, released in June, revea ...