Core Viewpoint - Since mid-October, lithium carbonate prices have experienced a significant upward trend, with a cumulative increase of nearly 30% [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - By 2025, global lithium carbonate demand is projected to reach approximately 1.45 million tons, but due to increased demand in the second half of the year, the forecast has been updated to 1.55 million tons, with supply capacity around 1.7 million tons, indicating a surplus of about 200,000 tons [1] - In 2026, lithium carbonate demand is expected to grow by 30%, reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply capacity is anticipated to increase by around 250,000 tons, leading to a near balance in supply and demand [1] - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, short-term supply may not keep pace, causing prices to potentially exceed 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton [1] Price Dynamics - The high prices of lithium carbonate may suppress downstream purchasing willingness, particularly as the price of hexafluorophosphate lithium has surged over 200% in four months, impacting the profitability of downstream companies [2] - Current price dynamics show a linkage effect within the industry chain, with rising prices of hexafluorophosphate lithium and lithium carbonate driving each other [2] - The recovery of lithium prices has led to an increase in lithium salt exports from Chile and Australia, which may help alleviate domestic lithium resource shortages [2] Production and Inventory Insights - In September, lithium carbonate imports decreased by 10.3% to 19,596.9 tons, while exports plummeted by 59.12% to 150.816 tons; domestic production in October was 51,530 tons, reflecting a 9.31% increase, but the operating rate fell by 5 percentage points to 43%, indicating constraints in domestic capacity release [3] - By the end of December, supply tightness is expected to support the rise in lithium carbonate prices [4] Long-term Price Outlook - In the medium to long term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate between 70,000 yuan/ton and 100,000 yuan/ton, with 70,000 yuan/ton having clear cost and demand support, while 100,000 yuan/ton corresponds to the price level for the resumption of Australian mines [5] - From 2025 to 2030, the global lithium carbonate market is likely to maintain a surplus, with the supply surplus expected to narrow from 2025 to 2026 [5] - The global energy storage market is anticipated to become a new demand driver from 2025 to 2027, alongside steady growth in the power market [5] Key Demand Drivers - The sustainability of energy storage demand in 2026 will be crucial for influencing the prices of lithium carbonate and other raw materials [6] - The primary growth regions for the global energy storage market will remain in China, the United States, and Europe, with emerging regions like the Middle East, Australia, and Southeast Asia also expected to increase storage demand [6] - Global energy storage demand is projected to grow by approximately 63% year-on-year in 2025, with a potential slowdown to a 15% increase in 2026, and a compound annual growth rate of around 15% from 2026 to 2030 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that Huayou Cobalt's controlling shareholder, Huayou Holdings, plans to purchase 221,400 tons of lithium salt products from Shengxin Lithium Energy, with a transaction value potentially exceeding 20 billion yuan, amid a significant rise in lithium carbonate prices this year and expectations for further increases next year [1][4][14]. Summary by Sections Lithium Salt Procurement - Huayou Holdings intends to sign a cooperation framework agreement with Shengxin Lithium Energy for the procurement of 221,400 tons of lithium salt products from 2026 to 2030 [5]. - The estimated transaction value based on current lithium carbonate prices is approximately 19.985 billion yuan, and could reach about 20.962 billion yuan based on recent futures contract prices [7]. Price Trends and Market Outlook - Lithium carbonate prices have surged approximately 60% this year, with a maximum increase of 59.56% compared to the historical low in May 2025 [8][9]. - Predictions indicate that global lithium carbonate demand will grow by 30% in 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons, with supply expected to increase by around 250,000 tons, leading to a balanced supply-demand scenario and potential price increases [11]. Shareholding Changes - Following a specific stock issuance, Huayou Holdings and Zhongchuang Innovation will become shareholders of Shengxin Lithium Energy, each holding over 5% of the company [12][13]. - The anticipated daily transactions between Shengxin Lithium Energy and Huayou Holdings are expected to be capped at 3 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting the implementation of the cooperation framework agreement [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current lithium carbonate market is in an upward - trending oscillation phase. The core contradiction between bulls and bears lies in the game between the high - level operation of the supply side and the expected production cut in December. Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but the expected resumption of mining production restricts the upward space. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan in the short term [2]. - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips near support levels [2]. Summary by Directory Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Lithium Salt Price Changes**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the spot market increased by 8.48% week - on - week to 86,950 yuan/ton, and the basis remained at a deep discount of - 410 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 6.15% to 87,360 yuan/ton, with an open interest increase of 5.26% to 516,778 lots. The intraday amplitude exceeded 3%, indicating intense long - short competition [2]. - **Lithium Salt Price Table**: The table shows price changes of various lithium salts. For example, the price of lithium carbonate futures rose from 82,300 to 87,360, a 6.15% increase; the delivered price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (electro - carbon) increased from 80,150 to 86,950, an 8.48% increase [4]. - **Lithium Salt Premium and Discount Changes**: Whether classified by raw materials or enterprises, the premium and discount of lithium salts have changed. For example, the premium of spodumene raw materials decreased from - 50 to - 200, a change of - 150 [7]. Lithium Salt Fundamentals - **Supply - Production**: Lithium salt plant capacity utilization remained at a high level of 75.34%. November production is expected to be the same as October, but there is an expected production cut in salt - lake lithium extraction after December. The production of cathode materials such as ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate also increased [2]. - **Demand - Consumption**: Energy - storage cell production increased by 5% year - on - year, and the export proportion of new energy vehicles increased to 44.2%. The monthly production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased by 1% and 4% respectively [2]. - **Import and Export**: Lithium ore port inventory decreased by 5.62% week - on - week to 84,000 tons, with African raw materials as the main trade flow. Freight rates remained stable. The cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate decreased slightly by 0.12% to 74,687 yuan/ton, and production profit increased significantly by 128.23% to 12,262.8 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 12 consecutive weeks to a historical low of 124,000 tons, and warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.59% to 27,170 lots [2]. Lithium - Battery Fundamentals - **Market - Cathode Materials**: Information on the market, supply, demand, import and export, cost - profit, and recycling of cathode materials, electrolytes, and new energy vehicles is provided, but specific data details are not fully presented in the summary part [44 - 61].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing significant price increases, with the main contract reaching 93,840.0 yuan/ton, a rise of 7.44%, surpassing the 90,000 yuan/ton mark. The demand for lithium carbonate is projected to grow by 30% by 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply is expected to increase by approximately 250,000 tons, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario with potential for price increases [2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market challenges are primarily on the demand side, driven by record sales in electric vehicles and energy storage batteries, which are boosting the sentiment for lithium battery materials and raw materials [2]. - Domestic lithium carbonate production is nearing its upper limit, with capacity utilization across the industry chain at peak levels, leading to a continuous supply shortage in the spot market and the lowest recorded inventory days [2]. - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, the supply may not be able to keep pace, leading to prices possibly exceeding 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. Group 2: Industry Events - The 2025 (10th) Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference and the User-Side Energy Storage and Battery Technology Forum will be held in Shenzhen from December 17-19 [2]. - Upcoming events include the 2026 National Tour for Lithium Battery and Solid-State Battery, and various technical forums and award ceremonies scheduled throughout 2026 [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate market is strongly operating. The futures and spot prices have shown an upward trend in the past 10 trading days, with the futures price rising significantly. The negative basis has weakened, and the registered warehouse receipts have generally increased. The supply-demand relationship features continuous inventory reduction, strong terminal demand, and high production scheduling in the material sector [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract LC2601.GFE was 95,200 yuan/ton, up 7,840 yuan/ton (+8.97%) from the previous day, and the settlement price was 92,660 yuan/ton, up 5,320 yuan/ton. Compared with 5 trading days ago, the closing price increased by 7,960 yuan/ton, and the settlement price increased by 7,300 yuan/ton [4][6]. - **Lithium Ore Prices**: Lithium ore prices from different regions showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the price of Australian CIF6 Chinese lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 50 - 60 dollars/ton compared with the previous day and 110 - 110 dollars/ton compared with 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Lithium Mica Prices**: The prices of lithium mica with different Li2O contents all increased, with increases ranging from 25 - 85 yuan/ton compared with the previous day and the same increases compared with 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Prices**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate was 86,170 yuan/ton, up 980 yuan/ton from the previous day and 5,400 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago. The prices of lithium hydroxide also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of some downstream products such as electrolyte and lithium iron phosphate showed increases, while the prices of some products remained unchanged [6]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: Charts show the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium hydroxide, and the basis and price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [8]. - **Positive Electrode & Ternary Materials**: Charts display the price changes of manganese - lithium oxide, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - lithium oxide, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [11][12][13]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: Charts present the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures [15][16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that lithium carbonate futures have reached a new high, driven by strong demand and supply constraints, with prices hitting 95,200 yuan/ton, marking a nearly 30% increase since mid-October [1][3] - The strong performance of lithium carbonate has led to significant gains in related sectors, with companies like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Rongjie Co. hitting the daily limit, while others like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium saw increases of over 7% [2] - The supply side is characterized by domestic production increases and reduced imports, with a notable 10.3% decrease in lithium carbonate imports in September and a 59.12% drop in exports [3] Group 2 - Demand for lithium carbonate is being driven by the peak season, with a 10.7% month-on-month increase in domestic power battery installations in October, totaling 84.1 GWh, and a year-on-year increase of 42.1% [3] - The production of new energy vehicles in October reached 1.772 million units, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 9.59%, while sales were 1.715 million units, up 6.12% [3] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman predicts that demand for lithium carbonate will exceed 30% growth next year, potentially pushing prices above 150,000 yuan/ton, with a forecasted demand of 155,000 tons for 2025 [5] Group 3 - Analysts indicate that while short-term demand is strong, there are concerns about long-term supply pressures due to high production rates and new capacities coming online, which may limit price increases [4] - Current total inventory has dropped to 120,000 tons, highlighting tight supply conditions, but there are warnings about potential weakening of downstream purchasing intentions at high price levels [4] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations as demand may weaken in the coming months, particularly with the anticipated recovery of mining operations [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that lithium carbonate futures have surged, reaching a new high since July 2024, driven by strong demand and supply dynamics in the market [2][4][6] - As of November 17, the main contract for lithium carbonate closed at 95,200 yuan/ton, marking a nearly 30% increase since mid-October [2][4] - The strong performance in lithium carbonate prices has led to significant gains in related sectors, particularly energy metals and battery manufacturers, with companies like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Rongjie Co. hitting the daily limit up [2][4] Group 2 - Supply dynamics show a trend of "domestic production increase and import contraction," with September imports down by 10.3% and exports down by 59.12% [4][5] - Domestic lithium carbonate production in October was 51,530 tons, a 9.31% increase month-on-month, but the operating rate was only 43%, indicating constraints in capacity release [4][5] - Demand is being driven by a significant increase in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, with October production reaching 1.772 million units, a 9.59% month-on-month increase [4][5] Group 3 - Inventory levels are decreasing, with October lithium carbonate monthly inventory at 84,234 tons and a weekly inventory of 120,472 tons, indicating a trend of supply-demand improvement [5] - Analysts suggest that while short-term demand is strong, there are concerns about potential supply pressures in the long term due to high operating rates and new capacities coming online [5][6] - Predictions indicate that if demand growth exceeds 30% next year, prices could potentially break through 150,000 yuan/ton, with a possibility of reaching 200,000 yuan/ton if supply cannot keep pace [6]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks experienced a strong performance in early trading, with Ganfeng Lithium rising by 8.35% to HKD 62.3 and Tianqi Lithium increasing by 6.49% to HKD 56.75, driven by a significant rise in lithium carbonate futures prices and positive demand forecasts for the coming years [1][1]. Industry Summary - On November 17, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures surged over 5%, currently priced at CNY 91,740 per ton [1]. - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman, Li Liangbin, predicts a 30% increase in lithium carbonate demand by 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply capacity is expected to grow by approximately 250,000 tons, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario with potential for price increases [1][1]. - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, supply may not keep pace, leading to prices possibly exceeding CNY 150,000 per ton or even CNY 200,000 per ton in the short term [1][1]. Market Dynamics - According to Wenkang Futures, the current market focus is on the demand side, with record high sales in electric vehicles and energy storage batteries driving bullish sentiment in lithium materials and raw materials [1]. - Domestic lithium carbonate production is nearing its upper limit, with capacity utilization across the industry chain at peak levels for the year, resulting in a continuous supply shortage and the lowest recorded inventory days [1][1]. - Market expectations for accelerated inventory depletion have been fully priced in, and as the peak season progresses, the momentum for downstream raw material stocking may be nearing its end, suggesting limited upward price potential without sustained drivers [1][1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On October 30, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a high level. The current supply and demand are both strong, the upstream inventory pressure is not significant, and the situation has improved. The cancellation of warehouse receipts has driven the price up. However, the production remains at a high level. After the price increase, the downstream inventory replenishment slows down, and the inflection point of power demand may be approaching. One should be cautious about the price rising and then falling. It is recommended to go short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 30, the closing price of the near - month contract was 81,840 yuan/ton (+100), the closing price of the consecutive - one contract was 83,260 yuan/ton (+520), the closing price of the consecutive - two contract was 83,000 yuan/ton (+600), the closing price of the consecutive - three contract was 83,000 yuan/ton (+600), and the closing price was 83,400 yuan/ton (+500) [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 829,117 lots (+169,696), and the open interest of the active contract was 532,871 lots (+25,989) [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 27,641 tons (+116) [3]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 1,420 yuan/ton (-420), the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 260 yuan/ton (-80), and the spread between the consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (0) [3]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 3,400 yuan/ton (+350) [3]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 944 US dollars/ton (+16), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,380 yuan/ton (+50), and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,180 yuan/ton (+50) [3]. - **Lithium Product Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 80,000 yuan/ton (+850), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 77,800 yuan/ton (+850), and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% domestic, coarse - grained) was 75,380 yuan/ton (+300) [3]. - **Other Product Prices**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95% domestic) was 106,000 yuan/ton (+3,000), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 103,850 yuan/ton (0), and the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 35,805 yuan/ton (+210) [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, mainly due to a slight decline in the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene. In October, the production of lithium carbonate and manganese - based lithium increased [3]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, and the production of power batteries increased. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries increased in October [3]. Inventory Analysis - The registered warehouse receipts were 27,641 tons (+116), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and downstream enterprises decreased, while the inventory of other sectors increased [3]. News - On the afternoon of October 30, the auction of Albemarle spodumene powder ore ended. The auction target was 16,400 dry tons of 5.21% spodumene powder ore from Wodgma, and the actual transaction price was 7,058 yuan/ton (including tax) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures 2601 contract rose 1.19% to 83,400 yuan/ton. Spot prices also increased, with the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rising 850 yuan/ton to 80,000 yuan/ton, industrial - grade lithium carbonate rising 850 yuan/ton to 77,800 yuan/ton, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rising 300 yuan/ton to 75,380 yuan/ton. Warehouse receipts increased by 116 tons to 27,641 tons [3]. - Supply is expected to decline slightly on a monthly basis. Weekly production decreased by 228 tons to 21,080 tons. Demand side: weekly ternary material production increased by 802 tons to 18,568 tons, and inventory increased by 298 tons to 18,890 tons. Inventory decreased by 3,007 tons to 127,359 tons on a weekly basis [3]. - With the improvement of macro - sentiment, the weekly inventory destocking speed is accelerating, and market news indicates that the lithium ore auction price is strengthening, which boosts the bottom price. In the short term, it may still run strongly, but cautious optimism is needed, and there is still an expectation of project resumption [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Lithium Ore Prices**: The closing price of the main futures contract increased by 500 yuan/ton to 83,400 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract increased by 100 yuan/ton to 81,840 yuan/ton. Lithium ore prices such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica also rose [5]. - **Lithium Salt Prices**: Battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and various types of lithium hydroxide prices all increased. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 3,000 yuan/ton to 106,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 550 yuan/ton [5]. - **Precursor and Cathode Material Prices**: Some ternary precursor prices remained stable, while some ternary material and lithium iron phosphate prices increased [5]. - **Battery Cell and Battery Prices**: The prices of some battery cells and batteries increased, such as 523 square ternary cells and square lithium iron phosphate battery cells [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8][9]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][11][12][13][14][15]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [17][18][19][20][21][22]. - **Precursor & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][26][27][28][29][30]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][33][34][35]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from March to October 2025 [37][38][39][40]. - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of different raw materials for lithium carbonate production from 2024 to 2025 [41][42]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research, and are responsible for different research directions [45][46]. 3.4 Contact Information - The company is located at 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, and the fax is 021 - 80212200. The customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [49][50].