锂价走势分析 20251224 对未来碳酸锂价格走势有何判断？ 我们认为未来碳酸锂价格仍有上涨空间和弹性，这一判断基于以下几点原因： 在当前背景下，应如何关注相关股票标的？ 摘要 大矿复产延期导致供给扰动预期，而电池排产虽略有下调，整体需求仍 维持高位，行业库存已连续去化，不足一月用量，表明碳酸锂市场基本 面健康。 供需平衡预测显示，2025 年碳酸锂市场略有过剩或偏紧，2026 年将持 续收紧，2027 年可能转为紧缺，预示未来几年市场将持续改善。 碳酸锂价格上涨具备合理性，主要受供需持续收紧、有色商品情绪高涨 及资金驱动等多重因素影响。 2025 年长协比例较高，铁力厂低成本原料占比大，对价格上涨有迟滞 作用；但 2026 年长协比例预计降低，铁力厂需更多散货采购，价格弹 性将放大。 下游铁力厂碳酸锂库存偏低，2025 年无需急于提升库存；但 2026 年 和 2027 年，需求景气度确认及长协比例降低背景下，下游或将提升库 存，进一步收紧行业供需。 当前 12 万元/吨水平下储能经济性尚存，价格仍有上涨空间。终端车企 感知到的价格压力短期内不会显著影响，短期内价格仍有上涨空间。 权益市场担忧储能经济性和 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者： 新能源及有色组 碳酸锂 昨日碳酸锂盘面增仓上行，主力合约2606收于116460元/吨，涨幅3.98%，持仓量67.19万手，日增仓 3060手。本月碳酸锂涨幅已达到18.63%，并连续3个月呈上涨趋势，目前价格已接近2年内高位。 近期碳酸锂快速上涨主要是受近期供给端干扰因素影响：12月16日，江西宜春市自然资源局公示拟注销 27个过期锂矿采矿权，导致当天碳酸锂价格逼近涨停。而12月19日，宁德时代枧下窝锂矿进入首次环评 信息公示阶段的消息被市场解读为复产进度不及预期。但实际来看，两则消息对市场供需平衡影响有 限，消息存在被过度解读的可能。 基本面方面，据 SMM 统计，锂盐厂生产保持稳定增长。 伴随部分新增产线的逐步投产，预计12月国 内碳酸锂产量环比增长约3%，消费端整体维持较强韧性，12月新能源汽车销量预计表现亮眼；储能市 场延续供需两旺格局，供应偏紧状态依旧，为需求提供底层支撑。 整体来看，短期内碳酸锂价格受基本面支撑仍将维持高位。但需注意，上周碳酸锂库存去化速度放缓， 同时市场出现期现背离现象，短期碳酸锂期货涨幅过大，需警惕回 ...

2025 年 12 月 21 日 碳酸锂：大厂复产预期延后，短期高位运行 二 〇 二 五 年 度 | 邵婉嫕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023466 | liuhongru028781@gtjas.com | 报告导读： 本周价格走势：偏强运行，突破前高 碳酸锂期货合约本周呈上行态势，突破前高。2601 合约收于 109720 元/吨，周环比上涨 13800 元/吨， 2605 合约收于 111400 元/吨，周环比上涨 13680 元/吨，现货周环比上涨 3150 元/吨至 97650 元/吨。 SMM 期现基差（2601 合约）下跌 10650 元/吨至-12070 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价-1300 元/吨，周环 比持平。2601-2605 合约价差-1680 元/吨，环比走强 120 元/吨。 供需基本面：大厂复产预期延后，去库速度放缓 原料：12 月 18 日江西省宜丰县圳口里-奉新县枧下窝锂矿采矿项目环境影响评价第一次环评信公示， 根据环评 ...

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the recent development regarding the resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine owned by CATL, which has been suspended for over four months. The mine has entered the first environmental impact assessment (EIA) public announcement phase, leading to a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures prices. Group 1: Resumption of Operations - CATL's Jiangxiawo lithium mine has entered the first EIA public announcement phase, indicating progress towards resuming operations [3] - The mine has been suspended since August 9, 2023, due to the expiration of its mining license, which CATL is currently renewing [4] - The mine is one of the largest lithium mica mines globally, with an estimated resource of 9.6 billion tons and a lithium oxide resource of 265.68 million tons, equivalent to approximately 657 million tons of lithium carbonate [4] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the EIA public announcement, lithium carbonate futures surged from 107,260 CNY/ton to a peak of 113,500 CNY/ton, marking a 5.65% increase [1] - As of the market close, lithium carbonate futures settled at 111,400 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.86% increase [1] Group 3: Regulatory Context - The new mineral resources law, effective July 1, 2023, classifies lithium as an independent mineral, impacting the regulatory landscape for lithium mining [5] - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau has mandated that several lithium resource mining rights, including Jiangxiawo, complete a mineral type change verification report by the end of September [5] Group 4: Industry Implications - The suspension of the Jiangxiawo mine was viewed as a significant signal of "anti-involution" in the industry, with implications for market dynamics and pricing [4] - The recent developments have led to increased scrutiny and concern among domestic lithium mining companies and the lithium battery supply chain [6]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 18, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract fell 0.79% to 106,160 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 500 yuan/ton to 97,550 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price also rose 500 yuan/ton to 94,950 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased 500 yuan/ton to 85,980 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt inventory remained at 15,636 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased by 47 tons to 22,045 tons. Lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 60 tons to 13,804 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 50 tons to 2,826 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 20 tons to 3,095 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 17 tons to 2,320 tons. In December, the output of ternary materials is expected to decline by 7% to 78,280 tons, and the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline by 1% to 410,000 tons. The weekly inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 110,425 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 1,253 tons to 41,485 tons, other - link inventory increasing by 1,280 tons to 50,850 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 1,071 tons to 18,090 tons [3]. - The weekly inventory reduction rate has slowed down, and the positive factors have weakened marginally. If the lithium mine projects in Jiangxi resume production and the seasonal off - season factors come into play, the inventory reduction speed may slow down or turn into inventory accumulation, and prices may still face a callback. However, under the strong demand expectation, the downstream's willingness to stock up may also be relatively strong. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm, the decline in production scheduling, and whether the strong demand next year can be verified [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 106,160 yuan/ton, down 2,460 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 104,440 yuan/ton, down 2,380 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,326 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars; the price of lepidolite (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,825 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,825 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O:6% - 7%) was 10,425 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O:7% - 8%) was 11,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [5]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 97,550 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 94,950 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 85,980 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 90,600 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 80,330 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, South Korea) was 10.48 US dollars/kg, up 0.03 US dollars [5]. - Other Products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 170,500 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan. The price differences between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The prices of some ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium increased to varying degrees, while some remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite with different Li2O contents, and amblygonite with different Li2O contents from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts show the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate average prices, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide prices, and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][16]. - Price Differences: Charts show the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [18][20][23]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [26][27][30]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][35]. - Inventory: Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from April 30, 2025, to December 17, 2025 [37][39]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different sources such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [42].

种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 104486 H 利 # 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -8298 99792 F 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 外购锂云母精矿利润 -6028 行 业 12月16日，根据《矿产资源法》《矿产资源开采登记管理办法》和《自然资源部关于进一步完善矿产资源勘查开采登记管理的通知》等相关要 官春市自然资源局拟对高安市伍桥瓷石矿等27宗采矿许可证子以注销。目前，宜春市自然资源局已对拟注销的27宗采矿许可证进行 期(30个工作目)满后予以公告注销。注销后,生态修复等相关义务由原矿权人履行。 H 手 求方面,终端（储能+新能源车）旺季持续，材料端排产基本持平，社会库存"上游-下游-终端"移动的链条流畅，供给方面，12月排产小幅 叠加宜春市拟取消27宗已到期矿山采矿权许可证，虽对基本面影响有限，但对情绪产生提振。整体看，需求形成碳酸锂价 叠加市场情绪提振,建议中期偏多对待。事件型的上涨属短期行情,短期有回落风险,建议投资者谨慎追高。 免 贡 告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做低何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell. After the sentiment of supply - side disturbances faded, the high point of the previous day had obvious suppression. Although the weekly inventory reduction of lithium carbonate slowed down, which was expected to dampen short - term market enthusiasm, the callback space of lithium prices was limited due to the stable price increase trend in the industrial chain [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - The lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell. The high point of the previous day had strong suppression after supply - side disturbances subsided. The price of electric carbon increased by 500 to 97550, the price of Australian ore increased by 10 to 1340, the price of mica increased by 40 to 2825, the price of ternary increased by 200 - 800, the price of iron - lithium increased by 120, and the price of electrolyte remained flat. The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1044 tons to 110425 tons, and the de - stocking intensity continued to slow down [10]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) reported that although the global lithium carbonate price had risen significantly due to increased supply uncertainty and improved future demand prospects, it was still lower than last year's average. On December 10, the price reached $10,500 per ton, a 13% increase from the end of October. The average price this year was $9306 per ton, 24% lower than the 2024 level. Despite expected oversupply in the market this year and next, prices continued to rise. Lithium prices were expected to recover moderately in 2026, but the resumption of major mines might cause short - term price drops. The consumption of lithium - battery energy storage systems was expected to increase, driving prices up [13]. - BloombergNEF's "2025 Transition Metals Outlook" report stated that lithium supply continued to grow. Supported by new project launches in South America and Africa, the maturity of direct extraction technology, and increased secondary supply, the total lithium carbonate equivalent production capacity might increase from 1.5 million tons in 2025 to 4.4 million tons in 2035. Lithium prices were still low after falling from the peak of $80,000 per ton in 2022, but recent production interruptions and subsidy cuts had led to a slight rebound [13].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a slight price decline due to technical corrections and profit-taking, while supply remains stable and demand is supported by the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [4][10]. Market Analysis - On December 18, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract opened at 106,800 CNY/ton and closed at 106,160 CNY/ton, reflecting a change of -0.79% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 1,013,916 contracts, and the open interest was 672,711 contracts, up from 668,589 contracts the previous day [2][8]. - The current basis is -10,850 CNY/ton, indicating the difference between the average spot price and futures [2]. - The spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate are quoted between 95,300 and 99,800 CNY/ton, with a change of 500 CNY/ton from the previous day. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 93,900 and 96,000 CNY/ton, also reflecting a 500 CNY/ton change [3][9]. - The price of 6% lithium concentrate is at 1,340 USD/ton, which is a 10 USD/ton increase from the previous day [3][9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply from lithium salt manufacturers is stable, with a projected 3% month-on-month increase in domestic lithium carbonate production for December. Demand remains robust, particularly from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, although production of battery cells and cathode materials is expected to decline slightly month-on-month in December [3][9]. - The industry is characterized by a steady increase in supply and stable high demand, with a continued trend of inventory reduction, albeit at a slower pace. Recent statistics indicate a weekly inventory decrease of 1,044 tons, bringing total inventory to 110,425 tons [3][9]. Strategy - The recent price correction in lithium carbonate is attributed to a combination of technical overbought conditions and profit-taking. The ongoing inventory reduction and consumer support are key factors, while uncertainties on the supply side continue to support prices. The market is expected to maintain high volatility in the short term, with a focus on capacity release and capital movements [4][10].

种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 104094 H 利 tt 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -8401 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 98869 外购锂云母精矿利润 -5595 行业 12月16日，根据《矿产资源法》《矿产资源开采登记管理办法》和《自然资源部关于进一步完善矿产资源勘查开采登记管理的通知》等相关要 官春市自然资源局拟对高安市伍桥瓷石矿等27宗采矿许可证子以注销。目前，宜春市自然资源局已对拟注销的27宗采矿许可证进行 期(30个工作目)满后予以公告注销。注销后,生态修复等相关义务由原矿权人履行。 十 中 求方面，终端（储能+新能源车）旺季持续，材料端排产基本持平，社会库存"上游-下游-终端"移动的链条流畅，供给方面，12月排产小幅 叠加宜春市拟取消27宗已到期矿山采矿权许可证，虽对基本面影响有限，但对情绪产生提振。整体看，需求形成碳酸锂价 叠加市场情绪提振,建议中期偏多对待。事件型的上涨属短期行情,短期有回落风险,建议投资者谨慎追高。 免 贡 告申的信息均源于公开可获得的资料、国贸期货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不拘成个人投资政 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-17 供需两旺，碳酸锂维持高位震荡 碳酸锂整体维持偏强震荡态势，虽盘中受短期压力回调，但长期上涨趋势的支撑因素仍在。目前，供应端的不确 定性是支撑价格偏强的关键因素之一，国内外供应干扰消息层出不穷。整体来看，短期大概率维持高位震荡，需 聚焦产能释放节奏与资金动向，警惕供需边际变化带来的波动加剧。 单边：短期观望为主 跨期：无 风险 市场分析 2025-12-16，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于101500元/吨，收于100600元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化1.27%。当日 成交量为597317手，持仓量为666027手，前一交易日持仓量662185手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-5170元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单15286手，较上个交易日变化26手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价94000-97700元/吨，较前一交易日变化700元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价92700-94000元/吨，较前一交易日变化700元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1260美元/吨，较前一日变化40美元/吨。据SMM 方面消息，下游材料厂持谨慎观望态度，采购意愿不强。 ...