1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight supply - demand balance and will mainly fluctuate at a high level. The main contract of lithium carbonate will maintain a wide - range fluctuating trend in the short term. Wait for the opportunity to go long after the price stabilizes [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Overview - China's November CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, 0.5 percentage points higher than last month, the highest since March 2024; PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month. November exports in US dollars were 330.3 billion, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. Imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year. The M2 balance in November was 336.99 trillion yuan, an 8.0% year - on - year increase, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The stock of social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, an 8.5% year - on - year increase, 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.50% and 3.75% [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - This week, the weekly output of lithium carbonate continued to increase, remaining above 24,000 tons and reaching a new high this year. The average industry operating rate rebounded to over 52%. There are still uncertainties about the resumption of production of leading large - scale manufacturers. Attention should be paid to the arrival volume of overseas lithium mines. As of December 12, the output of lithium carbonate was 24,065 tons, a week - on - week increase of 170 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 52.85%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38% [3][11]. 3.3 Demand Side - From December 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 297,000, a 32% year - on - year decrease and an 8% decrease compared to the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 21.781 million, a 5% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume was 298,000, a 40% year - on - year decrease and an 18% decrease compared to the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 27.063 million, a 10% year - on - year increase. The sales of new - energy vehicles at the beginning of December were lower than expected, while the orders for energy - storage projects at home and abroad were strong. Overall, the production schedule of downstream material manufacturers increased slightly month - on - month, still supporting the demand for lithium carbonate [3][5]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the prices of mining ends increased. The African SC 5% was quoted at $900 per ton, a $30 per - ton increase compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $1,215 per ton, a $55 per - ton increase compared to last week; the market price of lepidolite was 3,585 yuan per ton, the same as last week. The production cost of lithium carbonate was 80,088 yuan per ton, a 518 - yuan increase compared to last week, and the industry profit was 12,962 yuan per ton, a 303 - yuan decrease compared to last week [4]. 3.5 Total Inventory - As of December 11, the total inventory was 111,469 tons, a 2,133 - ton decrease compared to last week. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 19,161 tons, a 1,606 - ton decrease compared to last week [4]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The basis between futures and spot quotes remained stable this week. The discount range of the main contract of electric - grade lithium carbonate was concentrated between 1,500 and 2,500 yuan, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate maintained a large discount. Lithium salt factories mainly executed long - term contracts, and the shipment of spot orders was limited. In the short term, the main contract will maintain a wide - range fluctuating trend. The domestic output remains high and is expected to continue to grow with the arrival of overseas lithium mines. The overseas supply pressure has eased. Although the sales of new - energy vehicles at the beginning of December were lower than expected, the overall demand from downstream material manufacturers still supported the price [5]. 3.7 Price List of the Lithium - Battery Industry - As of December 12, the prices of some products increased, such as 6% spodumene CIF at $1,215 per ton, a 4.74% increase compared to last week; African SC 5% at $900 per ton, a 3.45% increase compared to last week; battery - grade lithium carbonate at 95,000 yuan per ton, a 3.26% increase compared to last week. Some product prices remained unchanged, such as lepidolite at 3,585 yuan per ton, and metal lithium at 610,000 yuan per ton [7]. 3.8 This Week's Market Review - As of December 12, LC2605 closed at 97,720 yuan per ton, a 6% increase compared to last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 95,000 yuan per ton, a 3.3% increase compared to last week. The main contract increased significantly this week, approaching the previous high. According to the supply - demand balance sheet, lithium carbonate will continue the de - stocking trend in December, and the price will remain high [9]. 3.9 Production of Related Products - As of December 12, the production of lithium carbonate was 24,065 tons, a week - on - week increase of 170 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 52.85%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The production of lithium hydroxide was 6,350 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 36.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. The production of lithium iron phosphate was 103,322 tons, a week - on - week increase of 800 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 90.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.7% [11][13][16]. 3.10 Inventory of Related Products - As of December 11, the total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry was 111,469 tons, a 2,133 - ton decrease compared to last week. The inventory of upstream smelters continued to decline to a historical low. As of December 12, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 39,136 tons, a 134 - ton decrease compared to last week [34][38]. 3.11 Cost Side - As of December 12, the African SC 5% was quoted at $900 per ton, a $30 per - ton increase compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $1,215 per ton, a $55 per - ton increase compared to last week; the market price of lepidolite was 3,585 yuan per ton, the same as last week. The production cost of lithium carbonate was 80,088 yuan per ton, a 518 - yuan increase compared to last week, and the industry profit was 12,962 yuan per ton, a 303 - yuan decrease compared to last week [51][54].

Core Viewpoint - The global lithium carbonate supply and demand is expected to reach a tight balance by 2026, with concerns about the actual installed capacity in energy storage being a key risk factor affecting demand [2]. Group 1: Industry Insights - The main development directions in the new energy sector are photovoltaic and lithium batteries, which include lithium ore, cobalt, and nickel in the supply chain [3]. - Cobalt and nickel are primarily used in military and ternary material fields, while lithium carbonate has broader applications, including in power batteries and energy storage [4]. - African lithium mines have advantages of low cost and high grade, and are expected to become an important supply source for the lithium battery industry in the future [5]. - The expected increase in African lithium carbonate supply by 2026 is estimated to be between 120,000 to 150,000 tons, mainly from Nigeria [6]. - The mining cost of lithium in Nigeria is below 50,000 yuan per ton, providing a significant cost advantage [7]. - Chinese companies have made substantial investments in Nigerian lithium mines, indicating a large future supply potential [8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing tight supply-demand relationships, with significant price volatility and uneven profit distribution across the supply chain [10]. - The demand growth rates for power batteries and energy storage markets differ, necessitating attention to changes in the power battery market [11]. - After 2028, the contribution of recycling to lithium carbonate supply is expected to increase significantly, potentially impacting the market [12]. Group 3: Company Strategies - The battery industry is currently in a rapid development phase, with solid-state batteries being a future trend. Leading companies have advantages in materials and technology, but the entire supply chain still faces challenges related to inventory management and price volatility [13]. - Company B has performed well this year, with leading companies holding a competitive edge in materials and technology [14]. - Profit distribution is uneven across the supply chain, with downstream energy storage yielding higher returns [15]. - Inventory management and price fluctuations are major issues facing the current supply chain [16]. Group 4: Price Trends - Lithium carbonate prices are influenced by market supply-demand and inventory changes, exhibiting significant volatility. There are differing market expectations regarding future price trends, but there is a general belief that prices will rise [17]. - The price of lithium carbonate is affected by the price of electrolyte, indicating a correlation between the two [18]. - Regulatory policies from exchanges will significantly impact lithium carbonate prices [20]. Group 5: Profit Distribution - The majority of profits in the supply chain are concentrated in the upstream sector, while midstream profits are relatively low. Companies need to enhance risk management to avoid losses due to price fluctuations [21]. - Upstream profits are higher, while midstream companies face significant competitive pressure [22]. - Strategic decisions approved by the board can help stabilize company development and mitigate single risks [24]. Group 6: Future Focus Areas - Close attention should be paid to changes in the power battery market demand and its impact on the lithium carbonate market [25]. - A deeper understanding of the mining costs, grades, and future supply potential of African lithium mines is necessary [26]. - Exploring profit distribution mechanisms within the supply chain can promote healthy industry development [27].

I. Market Data Change Analysis 1. Main Contract and Basis On December 10, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 95,980 yuan/ton, up 3,180 yuan or 3.43% from 92,800 yuan/ton on December 9 The basis weakened from -500 yuan/ton to -3,680 yuan/ton, a change of -3,180 yuan [1][6][40]. 2. Position and Trading Volume The position of the main contract increased from 575,421 lots on December 9 to 605,453 lots on December 10, an increase of 30,032 lots or 5.22% The trading volume increased from 512,215 lots to 620,935 lots, an increase of 108,720 lots or 21.23%, indicating a significant increase in market activity [1][6][40]. II. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis 1. Supply Side As of December 5, 2025, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained stable at 75.34%, the same as on November 28 The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate were stable at 8,930 yuan/ton and 4,990 yuan/ton respectively Some new production lines are gradually being put into operation, and it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will increase by about 3% month-on-month The Chuanneng Power project reached its designed annual production capacity of 180,000 tons of concentrate at the end of August 2025, and the technological transformation project of Qinghai Jintai Lithium Industry aims to improve efficiency and strengthen the elasticity of the supply side [2][32][42]. 2. Demand Side On December 10, 2025, the price of power-type ternary materials slightly increased from 144,700 yuan/ton to 144,850 yuan/ton, while the price of power-type lithium iron phosphate slightly decreased from 39,095 yuan/ton to 39,085 yuan/ton The cell prices, such as the 523 cylindrical ternary cell, remained stable at 4.75 yuan/piece According to the Passenger Car Association, in November, new energy vehicle retail sales were 1.354 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 6%, and wholesale sales were 1.72 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20% and a month-on-month increase of 7% It is expected that the sales volume in December will still be strong However, downstream material manufacturers are taking a cautious wait-and-see attitude and mainly making rigid purchases Although the production schedules of cells and cathode materials are still at a high level, they have slightly declined month-on-month The energy storage market has strong supply and demand, but the supply is tight [2][8][42]. 3. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts As of December 5, 2025, the lithium carbonate inventory was 113,602 physical tons, a decrease of 2,366 tons or 2.04% from 115,968 tons on November 28 It is expected that the inventory reduction trend will continue in December, but the magnitude will be slower than in November, reflecting a marginal improvement in the supply-demand balance [3][33][42]. III. Price Trend Judgment and Summary In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern The supply side is steadily increasing, with new production lines being put into operation and technological transformation projects enhancing production capacity elasticity, which may put pressure on prices The demand side is supported by new energy vehicle sales, but the month-on-month decline in downstream production schedules and cautious purchasing limit the upside space The slowdown in inventory reduction indicates a marginal easing of the tight supply-demand balance Considering that the main contract has recently risen while the spot market price has slightly declined, and the weakening basis and expanding trading volume indicate intensified long-short competition, it is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 93,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton, lacking a unilateral trend [4][42][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are in a tight balance, and the market is subject to emotional fluctuations triggered by news. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 92,240 - 95,920 [8][9][13]. - On the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,939 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.33%, and it is predicted that the production in December 2025 will be 98,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00%. The import volume in November 2025 was 25,500 tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in December will be 27,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88%. [8][9] - On the demand side, last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.63% month - on - month, and that of ternary materials decreased by 2.68% month - on - month. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month and the inventory will be reduced [8][9]. - In terms of cost, the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased month - on - month, but was lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica remained unchanged day - on - day, and production was at a loss. The cost of the salt lake end was low, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,939 tons, up 0.33% month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary material sample enterprises decreased. In November 2025, lithium carbonate production was 95,350 tons, and it is predicted to be 98,210 tons in December, up 3.00% month - on - month. The import volume was 25,500 tons, and it is expected to be 27,000 tons in December, up 5.88% month - on - month. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 94,487 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 3,883 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica was 93,100 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 4,675 yuan/ton. The cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [10]. - **Market Indicators**: The fundamental situation is neutral; on December 10, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 3,280 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The overall inventory decreased by 2.04% month - on - month, higher than the historical average, and the situation is neutral. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [10]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end, with a limited decline range. The main logic is the emotional fluctuations caused by news under the tight balance of supply and demand [11][12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Price Data**: The prices of lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium salts generally increased, while the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly by 0.05% [16]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly and monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate and other products showed different degrees of growth. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in November 2025 was 95,350 tons, a 3.35% increase from the previous month [20]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production and export volume of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the monthly production of ternary materials also increased. The monthly power battery loading volume increased, and the sales volume and export volume of new energy vehicles also increased [20]. - **Inventory Data**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.04% month - on - month, with the smelter inventory decreasing by 14.62% and the downstream inventory increasing by 4.08%. The inventory of ternary materials decreased by 2.68% [10][20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that lithium carbonate futures are experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract LC2605 closing at 95,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.56% [1] - Analysts believe that the current high price of lithium carbonate futures is supported by strong fundamentals, with a balanced supply and demand situation remaining intact [3] - Despite strong supply and demand fundamentals, the market is showing signs of marginal weakening due to seasonal demand shifts, leading to a "can go up or down" market characteristic [3] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate production in China saw a significant year-on-year increase of 49% in November, reaching a historical high, with expectations for continued high production levels in December [3] - Weekly lithium carbonate production as of December 4 was approximately 21,900 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of about 740 tons [3] - Inventory levels of lithium carbonate have been decreasing, but the rate of reduction has slowed compared to November, with a weekly inventory of about 114,000 tons as of December 4, down by approximately 2,366 tons [4] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the supply-demand balance may become looser in December, potentially leading to inventory accumulation by the end of the month, with January demand likely to decline due to market conditions [4] - The market's core concern is the recovery progress of major manufacturers and the sustainability of seasonal demand, particularly focusing on the uncertain resumption of operations at the Ningde Times lithium mine [4] - Current market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of a range-bound movement in lithium carbonate futures prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate last week was 21,939 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.33%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased. The cost of external purchase of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica led to losses, while the salt - lake end had sufficient profit margins and high production motivation. The overall situation was a tight balance between supply and demand, with emotional fluctuations caused by news. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate was expected to fluctuate in the range of 89,200 - 92,800 yuan/ton [8][9][10][14]. - Bullish factors included the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Bearish factors were the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week's lithium carbonate output was 21,939 tons, up 0.33% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. In November 2025, the output was 95,350 physical tons, and the predicted output for the next month was 98,210 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00%. The import volume in November was 25,500 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month was 27,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88% [8][10]. - **Demand**: The inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises last week was 103,681 tons, down 0.63% week - on - week, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 18,842 tons, down 2.68% week - on - week. It was expected that the demand would strengthen next month and the inventory would be reduced [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 94,487 yuan/ton, up 0.01% day - on - week, resulting in a loss of 3,021 yuan/ton; the cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 93,100 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - week, resulting in a loss of 3,898 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end was generally higher than that at the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt - lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Comprehensive Evaluation**: Fundamentals were neutral; the basis on December 9th showed that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 50 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, also neutral; inventory was neutral; the disk was neutral; the main position was net short with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of most lithium - related products declined, such as lithium carbonate futures closing price, which decreased by 2.29%. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1.52% [15]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 75.34%, unchanged. The monthly output of lithium carbonate in November 2025 was 95,350 tons, up 3.35% month - on - month. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 531,013 tons, up 2.02% month - on - month, and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,880.69 tons, up 21.86% month - on - month [19]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate was 348,500 tons, up 5.14% month - on - month. The monthly export volume of lithium iron phosphate was 5,476,869 kg, up 77.13% month - on - month. The monthly output of ternary precursor and ternary material showed different trends, and the monthly power battery loading volume was 84,100 GWh, up 10.66% month - on - month [19].

证券代码：839979 碳酸锂期货周报 2025年12月01日-12月05日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 3 一．回顾与展望 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 本周05合约为下跌态势，周一开盘价为96980元/吨，周五收盘价为92160元/吨，周跌幅为4.90%。 供给端来看，本周碳酸锂产量为21939吨，高于历史同期平均水平，其中锂辉石产13484吨，环比增 加0.90%,高于历史同期平均水平，锂云母产3076吨，环比增加1.82%,高于历史同期平均水平，盐湖产 3090吨，环比减少4.48%,高于历史同期平均水平，回收产2289吨，环比增加1.96%,高于历史同期水平。 需求端来看，2025年11月碳酸锂需求量为133451实物吨，环比增加5.11%,预测下月需求量为130418 实 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has surged significantly in November, breaking the important threshold of 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a shift in market dynamics and demand-supply narratives [1][2][9]. Group 1: Price Movement - Lithium carbonate prices rose sharply, reaching a peak of 102,500 yuan/ton on November 20, 2023, after starting at 78,060 yuan/ton on November 5, marking a substantial increase [2][3]. - The main futures contract for lithium carbonate, LC2601, saw a remarkable increase of 19.26% in November, making it the top performer in the commodity market [1][2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The demand for lithium carbonate is primarily driven by the energy storage and power battery sectors, with expectations that global lithium demand will reach 2 million tons by 2026 [1][3]. - The recent surge in demand is attributed to the rapid growth in renewable energy integration and electric vehicle production, with predictions of a 30% increase in lithium demand by 2026 [3][4]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Supply-side constraints are emerging, particularly in major lithium production areas like Jiangxi, where environmental regulations and power supply issues have reduced operational rates to around 55% [8][9]. - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased significantly, with registered warehouse receipts dropping from 42,400 contracts in early October to 27,100 contracts by November 26, indicating tightening supply conditions [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Speculation - Market sentiment has been bolstered by optimistic forecasts from leading companies in the lithium sector, contributing to increased trading activity and speculation in the futures market [4][5]. - The trading volume for lithium carbonate futures reached a record high of 25.06 million contracts in November, reflecting heightened market activity and investor interest [4]. Group 5: Future Price Projections - Analysts suggest that while prices could potentially reach 150,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton under extreme conditions, such scenarios depend on various factors including supply disruptions and unexpected demand surges [10][11]. - A more balanced scenario predicts a slight oversupply in 2025, with average prices likely returning to the range of 70,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton based on historical trends and cost structures [10].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for lithium, driven by the energy storage and power battery sectors, is expected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, with supply and demand reaching a balance [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of lithium carbonate futures surged significantly, with the main contract LC2601 rising by 4.47% on November 25 and reaching a peak of 99,880 yuan/ton on November 26, marking a 19.26% increase in November [1][2]. - The lithium carbonate market has experienced an unexpected strong performance during the traditional off-season, attributed to improved expectations from leading companies, supportive policies, and structural changes in domestic and international trade [2][3]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The demand for lithium carbonate is primarily driven by the power battery and energy storage sectors, with the latter showing unexpected growth due to several factors, including declining photovoltaic component prices and supportive government policies [6][7]. - The energy storage sector's performance has exceeded market expectations, with a significant increase in demand driven by the economic viability of storage projects and the low penetration rate of energy storage [7][8]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply side is facing challenges, particularly in major lithium production areas like Jiangxi, where environmental regulations and unstable power supply have reduced operational rates [8][9]. - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased significantly, indicating a tightening supply situation, with registered warehouse receipts dropping from 42,400 contracts in early October to 27,100 contracts by November 26 [9][10]. Group 4: Price Projections - Market participants are speculating on potential price increases, with some forecasts suggesting that if demand growth exceeds 30%, prices could reach 150,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton [10][11]. - However, a balanced supply-demand scenario may lead to a slight oversupply by 2025, with prices likely stabilizing between 70,000 and 100,000 yuan/ton under normal conditions [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is neutral [12]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations driven by news. The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 92,620 - 96,380 [13][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,130 tons, a 2.71% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, production was 92,260 tons, and next - month production is forecasted to be 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. October imports were 23,881 tons, and next - month imports are forecasted to be 27,000 tons, a 13.06% increase [8][13]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 102,584 tons, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 19,290 tons, a 0.41% week - on - week increase. Next - month demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8][13]. - Inventory: Total inventory was 118,420 tons, a 1.70% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Smelter inventory was 26,104 tons, a 7.66% decrease; downstream inventory was 44,436 tons, an 8.89% decrease; other inventory was 47,880 tons, a 10.25% increase [9]. - Cost: The cost of外购锂辉石精矿 was 88,224 yuan/ton, a 0.31% daily decrease, with a profit of 2,549 yuan/ton. The cost of外购锂云母 was 90,365 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a loss of 1,850 yuan/ton. The recycling - end production cost was generally higher than the ore - end cost, with negative production income. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore - end, with sufficient profit margins [13]. - Market indicators: On November 26, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 3,540 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The MA20 of the market was upward, and the 05 contract price closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players was short, with a decrease in short positions [13]. - Factors: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and a decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from the ore and salt - lake ends, with limited decline [14][15]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price changes: The price of lithium carbonate and related products showed various fluctuations. For example, the price of lithium carbonate (6%) increased by 4.31% to 1,113 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.81% to 92,800 yuan/ton [19]. - Supply - side data: The weekly operating rate was 75.34%, unchanged. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene decreased by 0.31% to 88,224 yuan/ton. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase [22]. - Demand - side data: The monthly operating rate of the lithium battery industry increased, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate lithium increased by 6.35% and 10.54% respectively. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 10.66% [22]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and production: The price of lithium ore showed fluctuations over time. The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica also changed year - on - year [29]. - Supply - demand balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations each month, with some months in short supply and others with a surplus [31][33]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating rate and production: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) and the monthly production showed different trends. The monthly production of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also changed [35]. - Supply - demand balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations each month, with some months in short supply and others with a surplus [40]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity utilization and production: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide and the monthly production from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends [42]. - Supply - demand balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations each month, with some months in short supply and others with a surplus [44]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and profit of different raw materials: The cost and profit of lithium compounds produced from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, recycled materials) showed different trends over time [47][49][52]. 3.7 Inventory - Inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from different sources (downstream, smelter) showed different trends over time [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price, production, and loading volume: The price, monthly production, and monthly power battery loading volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time [57]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price, cost, and production: The price, cost, and monthly production of ternary precursors showed different trends over time. The supply - demand balance from 2024 to 2025 also showed different situations each month [63][66]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price, cost, and production: The price, cost, and monthly production of ternary materials showed different trends over time [69]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, cost, and production: The price, cost, and monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [74]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, sales, and penetration rate: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [82][83].