Core Viewpoint - The strong rise in lithium carbonate futures prices is attributed to a combination of favorable market sentiment and fundamental factors, with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit up on November 17 [1][2][4]. Price Movement - Lithium carbonate prices have seen significant increases, with the main contract reaching 95,140 yuan/ton, reflecting an 8.98% rise, while other contracts also showed similar upward trends, with some increasing by up to 9.00% [2]. Market Sentiment - Analysts indicate that the current market sentiment is positive, with expectations of increased demand for lithium carbonate in 2025 and 2026, driven by the anticipated growth in electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [4][5]. Demand Forecast - There is a consensus among industry experts that if demand growth exceeds 30% by 2026, the lithium carbonate market may face a supply-demand imbalance, potentially pushing prices beyond 150,000 yuan/ton, and possibly reaching 200,000 yuan/ton [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market is currently characterized by strong supply and demand. Domestic production increased by 5.7% month-on-month in October, reaching 92,300 tons, while energy storage battery production surged by 55% year-on-year from January to October [4][5]. Inventory Levels - As of November 14, lithium carbonate weekly inventory stood at 120,500 tons, down by 3,481 tons from the previous week, indicating a rapid depletion of stock [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the current demand remains robust, attention should be paid to the sustainability of this demand and the pace of future supply releases. The market is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short term, but caution is advised regarding potential seasonal demand weaknesses [5].

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has increased by over 4%, leading to a rise in Hong Kong lithium mining stocks, with Tianqi Lithium up over 5% and Ganfeng Lithium up over 4% [1] Industry Summary - The main contract for lithium carbonate has risen by 4% to 90,860 yuan per ton [1] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman, Li Liangbin, stated that global lithium carbonate demand is expected to reach 1.45 million tons by 2025, but due to increased demand in the second half of the year, the annual demand forecast has been updated to 1.55 million tons [1] - Supply capacity is projected to be over 1.7 million tons, indicating a surplus of around 200,000 tons, which contributes to the current low prices [1] - It is predicted that lithium carbonate demand will grow by 30% in 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply capacity is expected to increase by approximately 250,000 tons, leading to a near balance in supply and demand [1] - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, short-term supply may not be able to keep up, causing prices to potentially exceed 150,000 yuan per ton or even 200,000 yuan per ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures contracts showed high - level fluctuations. The 2601 contract closed at 87,360 yuan/ton, up 5,060 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 2605 contract closed at 87,880 yuan/ton, up 4,940 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price rose 4,750 yuan/ton to 85,150 yuan/ton [1]. - In terms of supply and demand fundamentals, short - term demand for power and energy storage has weakened, while shipments from the mining end have increased. The price of lithium ore has exceeded $1,000/ton, and port inventories have increased. Weekly production remained flat at 21,545 tons, and inventory decreased by 3,481 tons to 120,000 tons. This week, the winning bid capacity of energy storage projects was 7.537 GWH, a week - on - week decrease of 22.88%. In October 2025, passenger car retail sales decreased by 1% [2]. - In the future, the price is under upward pressure. The shipping volume of Australian mines has been above the annual average for three consecutive weeks since October 27. The production enterprises of Australian mines have significantly increased the recovery rate, and the supply will increase at the end of this year or in the first quarter of next year. From October to November, the scale of energy storage procurement and bidding has weakened month - on - month. The unilateral price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 73,000 to 88,000 yuan/ton [3]. - For cross - period trading, no recommendations are provided. Lithium salt plants are advised to adopt hedging strategies to lock in profits, and downstream enterprises are advised to reduce the hedging ratio [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - The report presents figures on the price difference between lithium carbonate spot and futures, as well as the cross - period price difference of lithium carbonate futures [1][5]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Side (Lithium Ore) - Figures show the processing profit of spodumene concentrate, the average price trend, monthly import volume and price of lithium concentrate, and the monthly import volume and price of Australian lithium concentrate [8][9]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - Stream Consumption - Side (Lithium Salt Products) - Multiple figures display the prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate in different regions, the price trends of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the processing cost of converting industrial - grade to battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide in CIF Japan, South Korea and domestic markets, the monthly export volume of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the monthly production volume, monthly production volume by raw material, monthly production volume by region, weekly production volume, monthly operating rate, monthly import and export volume, and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate [15][22][24]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Side (Lithium Batteries and Materials) - Figures show the monthly production volume and monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, the monthly production volume, monthly operating rate, monthly production volume of various types, import and export volume of ternary materials, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, and the monthly production volume of various types of domestic power lithium batteries [25][26][28].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures prices have significantly declined, with the main contract closing down 4.34% at 78,560 yuan/ton [1][2]. Price Movements - The prices for various lithium carbonate futures contracts are as follows: - Contract 2511: 77,160 yuan, down 4.55% - Contract 2512: 78,460 yuan, down 4.36% - Contract 2601: 78,560 yuan, down 4.34% - Contract 2602: 78,500 yuan, down 3.99% - Contract 2603: 78,460 yuan, down 3.94% - Contract 2604: 79,060 yuan, down 3.59% - Contract 2605: 79,060 yuan, down 3.59% - Contract 2606: 79,120 yuan, down 3.47% - Contract 2607: 79,100 yuan, down 3.40% - Contract 2608: 79,620 yuan, down 3.47% - Contract 2609: 79,660 yuan, down 3.47% - Contract 2610: 79,680 yuan, down 3.32% - Continuous contract: 77,160 yuan, down 4.55% - Weighted average: 78,693 yuan, down 4.09% - Main continuous contract: 78,560 yuan, down 4.34% [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the decline in lithium carbonate prices is primarily due to supply-side uncertainties, particularly regarding the resumption of production at Jiangxi lithium mines [2][3]. - Despite the price fluctuations, the fundamental balance of lithium carbonate remains tight, with a continued expectation of high production levels in the coming months [3]. - In October, China's lithium carbonate production increased by approximately 5.7% month-on-month to 92,300 tons, with expectations for continued high output in November and December [3]. - The market is currently experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with a weekly average inventory reduction of about 1,369 tons since early August [3][4]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with downstream demand projected to increase by 3% month-on-month in November [4]. - The ongoing uncertainty regarding the actual resumption of production at Jiangxi lithium mines is a key factor to monitor [4]. - While supply concerns have eased, the strong growth in the energy storage and electric vehicle markets is expected to sustain overall demand [4]. - If demand does not continue to grow and production increases as anticipated, the market may enter a period of inventory accumulation, potentially leading to a price turning point for lithium carbonate [4].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in lithium carbonate futures prices is primarily driven by supply-side uncertainties, particularly regarding the resumption of production at Jiangxi lithium mines and the approval status of the Ningde Times' Ganxiawo mine [5][6]. Supply Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the market remains in a tight balance despite recent price fluctuations, with lithium carbonate production in China increasing by approximately 5.7% month-on-month in October, reaching 92,300 tons [5][6]. - The expectation for continued high production levels in November and December, along with strong anticipated imports of lithium ore and salts, suggests sufficient supply elasticity [5][6]. - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the resumption of the Ganxiawo lithium mine is causing market disturbances, impacting the confidence of long positions [5][6]. Demand Outlook - The downstream production in November is expected to maintain a month-on-month growth trend, with a projected increase of 3% [6]. - The current demand from the energy storage and electric vehicle markets is robust, which is expected to support the overall demand outlook [6]. Market Sentiment - The market has been experiencing a continuous destocking trend since early August, with an average weekly destocking of approximately 1,369 tons [6]. - Despite the significant price drop, the ongoing destocking trend is gradually being realized, leading to expectations of price stabilization in the short term [6]. - Analysts suggest that if demand does not continue to grow and production increases materialize, the market may enter a period of inventory accumulation, potentially marking a turning point for lithium carbonate prices [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a complex situation. The supply side has a high - level production, with the predicted increase in both production and import volume in the next month. The demand side is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. Cost - wise, the cost of some ore - sourced materials is rising, resulting in losses, while the cost of the salt - lake side is low with sufficient profit margins [8]. - Overall, due to capacity mismatch leading to strong supply and weak demand, the downward trend is difficult to change. The lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 82,480 - 84,320 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, a 1.07% week - on - week decrease, but higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in the next month will be 89,890 tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September 2025 was 19,597 tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 22,000 tons, a 12.26% increase [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 104,347 tons, a 1.49% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,592 tons, a 3.50% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 80,456 yuan/ton, a 1.11% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,583 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 85,678 yuan/ton, a 1.37% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 8,830 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On October 30, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 3,400 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 32,051 tons, a 4.83% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 53,288 tons, a 3.59% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The overall inventory was 127,358 tons, a 2.30% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The futures closing prices of various contracts have increased to varying degrees, and the basis of most contracts has changed, with the spot generally at a discount to the futures. The prices of upstream lithium ores, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries have also changed to different extents [13]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, import, and export data of lithium carbonate and related materials have changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate has increased, and the monthly export has also increased significantly [16]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has changed, with the overall inventory showing a downward trend [8].

Report Title - Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] Report Date - October 20, 2025 [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply and demand of carbonate lithium will remain in a tight balance until there is a clear result on the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi. It is expected that subsequent lithium salt imports from South America will supplement the supply. The terminal demand for energy storage is strong, with large battery cell manufacturers increasing their production schedules by 8% in September and a projected 4% increase in cathode production in October. There are ongoing risks related to mining licenses, and with profit recovery, lithium extraction from ore continues to increase, leading to a rise in the cost center. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery manufacturers is increasing, and warehouse receipts are being continuously cancelled. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mining end, and it is recommended to trade cautiously and monitor the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoints 3.1.1 Supply Situation - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, last week's carbonate lithium production increased by 326 tons week - on - week to 22,765 tons, and September's production increased by 3.3% month - on - month to 95,442 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has been confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In the first half of the year, Australian mines achieved cost control, and there is extremely limited room for further cost reduction. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025. In August 2025, China imported 619,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 17.5% decrease from the previous month. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. Lithium concentrate imports from Australia decreased by 50.5% month - on - month, imports from Zimbabwe were 118,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 83.9%, imports from Nigeria were 105,000 tons, a 9.5% decrease, and imports from Mali increased by 73,000 tons. In August, 21,847 tons of carbonate lithium were imported, a 57.8% month - on - month increase, with 15,608 tons from Chile, accounting for 71%. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week, and some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium from purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. 3.1.2 Demand Situation - The overall production schedule in October increased month - on - month, and large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increased by 8% in September. In August, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 139.6 GWh, a 4.4% month - on - month increase and a 37.3% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 22.6 GWh, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease but a 23.9% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 134.5 GWh, a 5.7% month - on - month increase and a 45.6% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy are expected to continue to support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [6]. 3.1.3 Inventory Situation - This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking trend. Factory inventory decreased by 2,255 tons, market inventory increased by 13,194 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 11,983 tons [6]. 3.1.4 Strategy Recommendations - Given the current situation, it is recommended to trade cautiously and continuously monitor the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot tax - included average price of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production and inventory of carbonate lithium, average price of lithium concentrate imports, production proportion of carbonate lithium from different raw materials in September 2024, differences between domestic power battery production and loading volume, average production cost of carbonate lithium, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, import volume of lithium spodumene, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, and average price of ternary materials 8 - series NCA type [8][9][11][24] etc.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The demand for lithium carbonate is strong, with a 6.7% month - on - month increase in power battery production scheduling in October, limited month - on - month increase in energy storage due to high - end product capacity constraints but booming orders, and a shortage of electrolytes leading to significant price increases. The supply is facing disturbances, such as tax supplements in Yichun mines, potential production delays, and limited import increments from South America. The inventory is decreasing, indicating strong demand. In the short term, there is a possibility of the lithium carbonate price breaking through the resistance level of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan, and a short - term bullish view is recommended, with strategies including going long on dips, holding off on arbitrage, and selling out - of - the - money put options [5]. Summary by Directory Demand Analysis 1.1 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic sales**: In September, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%. New energy passenger vehicle retail sales were 1.296 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.5% and a month - on - month increase of 16.2%. The cumulative retail sales from January to September were 8.866 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.4%. The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in September was 57.8%. The cumulative power cell production from January to September increased by 45.6% year - on - year to 861.04 GWh [10]. - **Overseas market**: From January to August 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 12.371 million. European sales increased by 27.4% year - on - year to 2.347 million, and US sales increased by 8.1% year - on - year to 1.063 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to September 2025 reached 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [16]. 1.2 Energy Storage Market - Domestic energy storage orders are strong due to "rush - to - export" demand and中标 projects in regions like the Middle East, South America, and Australia. From January to September, China's energy storage cell production was 355.1 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 57%. The energy storage cell inventory is at a three - year low, and the delivery cycle is extended, with expected good performance in October to support lithium carbonate consumption [21]. 1.3 October Battery and Cathode Production Scheduling - In October, the electrolyte production scheduling was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 46%. The iron - lithium battery production scheduling was 113.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 49%. The ternary battery production scheduling was 22.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 12%. The ternary cathode production scheduling of 4 companies was 26,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 15%. The iron - lithium cathode production scheduling of 4 companies was 130,000 tons, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 19% [24][29]. Supply Analysis 2.1 Weekly Lithium Carbonate Production - This week, the weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 431 tons, with increased production from salt lakes and mica, and limited increment from spodumene. From January to September, domestic lithium carbonate production was 684,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 42%, and the production scheduling for October was 89,900 tons. The treatment plan for mines in Yichun is yet to be released, and 8 mines have submitted reserve verification reports [34]. 2.2 Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - Not elaborated in text, only data charts are provided [36]. 2.3 Lithium Carbonate Supply - From January to August 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 153,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, Chile's lithium carbonate exports were 16,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons, and exports to China were 11,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,880 tons. In October, there is unlikely to be a significant increase in lithium salt imports. In September 2025, the Port of Hedland in Australia shipped 186,424 tons of spodumene concentrate to China, a month - on - month increase of 45.6% and a year - on - year increase of 26.3% [43]. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance Forecast - Not elaborated in text, only data charts are provided [45]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - This week, the social inventory decreased by nearly 2,143 tons, with a 464 - ton decrease in smelter inventory, a 2,030 - ton decrease in downstream inventory, and a 350 - ton increase in other inventory. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 12,000 tons to 30,600 tons, indicating strong spot demand [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weekly lithium carbonate fluctuated without an obvious trend. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene is still increasing but approaching its peak, and imports are expected to decrease in September, with overall supply remaining flat. Demand is strong in the peak season, with a 5% increase in September, leading to inventory depletion from September to October, which supports the current price. However, demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, and with the expected resumption of downstream mines, the balance sheet will gradually turn into surplus, putting pressure on prices. Before the holiday, there is no new clear - direction driver, so lithium carbonate will mainly fluctuate in the short term. [14] - The strategy suggests wide - range fluctuations and light - position operations within the range for single - side trading, with no suggestions for spreads and options. Variables include changes in the macro - environment, increased supply, and demand falling short of expectations. [14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 01: Lithium Carbonate Overview - **Supply**: Total weekly production was 20,516 tons, a 0.75% increase. Spodumene production increased by 0.93% due to increased hedging profits, approaching a short - term peak; mica production decreased by 0.70% and remained stable after CATL's shutdown; salt - lake production increased by 0.66% with new capacity in the ramping - up stage; recycling production increased by 1.85%, and imports remained unchanged. Chile's reduced shipments in August will lead to a decrease in imports in September. [13] - **Demand**: The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.15%, and that of ternary materials increased by 0.68%. The peak - season demand is strong, and downstream procurement is active. Pre - holiday stocking is basically completed. [13] - **Inventory**: The port inventory of lithium concentrate decreased by 4.45%, and the total inventory decreased by 0.51%. Smelter inventory decreased by 2.80%, and downstream inventory increased by 2.35%. Overall inventory decreased due to strong demand. [13] - **Valuation**: Ore prices increased slightly with the market, raising costs and compressing profit margins. There is no obvious hedging profit. The profit from spodumene decreased by 58.69%, and that from mica decreased by 32.39%. [13] - **Balance Sheet**: In 2025, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate showed certain trends. The new August import and export data showed that imports were slightly lower than expected, and Chile's August shipments decreased by 4.8% month - on - month, resulting in a 3,000 - ton reduction in September imports. [15] Part 02: Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain Prices - **Lithium Carbonate Market - related**: It includes data on lithium carbonate futures such as the basis, trading - to - holding ratio, trading volume, and open interest, as well as spot prices and cost - profit data. [17] - **Lithium Ore Prices**: It shows the prices of spodumene concentrate (6% - CIF China) and lithium mica over the years. [27][30] - **Lithium Carbonate Prices**: It presents the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, their price differences, and cost - profit data. [35][41] - **Lithium Hydroxide Price Spreads**: It includes the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide and their price differences with lithium carbonate. [63] - **Cathode Material Prices**: It shows the prices of ternary materials of different grades and lithium iron phosphate. [66] - **Power Battery Cell Prices**: It presents the prices of square lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, and 523 square ternary cells. [68][70][71] Part 03: Lithium Carbonate Upstream Supply Environment - **Lithium Concentrate**: It shows the import volume of lithium concentrate, especially from Australia, including monthly and cumulative data and their year - on - year and month - on - month changes. [75][76][80] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It includes capacity, monthly and weekly operating rates, production volume (total and by raw material), import and export volume, and total supply, along with their changes over time. [83][88][108] Part 04: Lithium Carbonate Downstream Consumption Environment - **Apparent Demand**: It shows the apparent consumption volume of lithium carbonate. [113] - **Real Demand**: It includes the production volume and monthly operating rates of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, manganese - acid lithium, and lithium hexafluorophosphate. [113] - **Terminal Demand**: It includes the production volume, shipment volume, inventory - to - sales ratio, and installation volume of lithium batteries, power batteries, and energy - storage and consumer batteries, as well as the production and sales of new - energy vehicles, their penetration rate, and energy - storage bid - winning scale and capacity. [113] Part 05: Lithium Carbonate Inventory Structure - **Weekly Inventory**: It includes warehouse receipts by region, smelter inventory, downstream cathode material factory inventory, other inventory, and total inventory. [212] - **Monthly Inventory**: It includes smelter inventory, downstream cathode material factory inventory, and total inventory. [212] - **Upstream and Downstream Inventory**: It includes lithium ore inventory, lithium iron phosphate finished - product inventory, and ternary material finished - product inventory. [212]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The imbalance between supply and demand in the lithium carbonate market is prominent, with strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to halt production and reduce output, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10] - It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the cost of 6% concentrate CIF will decrease on a daily basis, falling below the historical average level. The supply - demand pattern will shift to demand - led, and lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 71,780 - 73,980 [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 75,297 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.31%, resulting in a loss of 2,519 yuan/ton in production. The cost of purchased lepidolite is 78,729 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.72%, resulting in a loss of 7,944 yuan/ton in production. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8] - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 96,217 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.81%. The inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,545 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.09% [8] - **Inventory**: The inventory of smelters is 34,456 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.85%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory is 59,495 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.09%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories are 43,580 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory is 137,531 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70%, higher than the historical average [8] - **Supply Expectation**: In August 2025, the output of lithium carbonate was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 86,730 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. In August 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,847 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.74% [8] Other Indicators - **Basis**: On September 24, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,850 yuan/ton, the basis of the 11 - contract was 970 yuan/ton, and the spot price was at a premium to the futures price, showing a positive signal [8] - **Disk**: The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a negative signal [8] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main position increased, showing a negative signal [8] 3.2 Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price and Basis**: The futures closing price showed a downward trend, and the basis increased significantly. For example, the futures closing price decreased by 0.98% - 1.06%, and the basis increased by 145.10% - 458.82% [14] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 39,749, an increase of 0.76% [14] - **Upstream Prices**: The price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.47% to 856 US dollars/ton, and the price of lepidolite concentrate (2% - 2.5%) decreased by 1.32% to 1,875 yuan/ton. The prices of other upstream products such as anhydrous iron phosphate remained unchanged [14] - **Positive Material and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of some ternary precursors and ternary materials increased slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate and lithium - ion batteries remained unchanged [14] 3.3 Supply - Related Data Lithium Ore - **Price and Output**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated, and the output of domestic spodumene mines and lepidolite has shown different trends over the years [23] - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also fluctuated [23] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has been fluctuating, with a shortfall in most months [26] Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate have changed over time, with different changes in production from different raw materials such as spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lake [29] - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate has changed, and the export volume has also shown different trends [29] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has been fluctuating, with both surpluses and shortages [36] Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide have changed, and the production from different sources such as smelting and causticization has also shown different trends [39] - **Export**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed over the years [39] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has been fluctuating, with surpluses in most months [41] 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of purchasing spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and recycling materials for lithium carbonate production have changed over time. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate is currently in a loss state [44][46] - The profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide into lithium carbonate, and the profit of causticizing lithium carbonate into lithium hydroxide have also changed [46][49] 3.5 Inventory - The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have changed, with different trends in inventory at the smelter end, downstream end, and other ends [51] 3.6 Demand - Related Data Lithium Battery - **Price and Output**: The price of lithium batteries has changed, and the monthly output of power batteries and energy - storage batteries has also shown different trends [55] - **Export**: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [55] Ternary Precursor - **Price and Production**: The price of ternary precursors has changed, and the monthly production and capacity utilization rate have also shown different trends [61] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has been fluctuating, with both surpluses and shortages [64] Ternary Material - **Price and Production**: The price of ternary materials has changed, and the weekly production and inventory have also shown different trends [67][70] Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Production**: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium has changed, and the monthly production, export volume, and inventory have also shown different trends [74][77] New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed over the years [82][83] - **Inventory and Zero - Batch Ratio**: The monthly inventory index and zero - batch ratio of new energy vehicle dealers have also changed [86]