Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, the pattern of oversupply in the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue, with no significant increase in production during the off - season on the demand side. The supply - side production shows no obvious improvement, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face great pressure, with a slow de - stocking process. The current main contradiction in the market is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices. There is a need to be vigilant against the possible spiral decline of ore and lithium salt prices [3]. - There are some positive factors, such as positive macro - policies that may stimulate power demand growth in industries like robotics, low - altitude economy, and AI, and a higher probability of supply - side disturbances as lithium ore and lithium salt prices decline [4]. - There are also negative factors, including high future production expectations for lithium ore, high inventories suppressing ore prices, high inventories of both lithium ore and lithium salt, and the delay of production capacity clearance due to industrial technology upgrades [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price and Market Conditions - The price range prediction for the lithium carbonate main contract is an oscillation between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.9% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 17.2% [2]. - The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 59,120 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan (0.37%) from the previous day; the trading volume is 259,487 lots, down 70,833 lots (- 21.44%); the open interest is 356,954 lots, up 2,607 lots (0.74%) [9]. - For the LC2511 contract, the closing price is 58,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), the trading volume is 28,178 lots, up 12,033 lots (74.53%), and the open interest is 76,082 lots, up 5,069 lots (7.14%) [9]. - Regarding the lithium carbonate monthly spreads: LC07 - 08 is 360 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (- 21.74%); LC08 - 11 is 560 yuan/ton (unchanged); LC09 - 11 is 320 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan (220%); LC11 - 12 is - 320 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (20%) [15]. Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt Prices - For lithium ore, the average daily prices of various types have different changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 1.65%); the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 3 - 4%) is 2,175 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 1.81%) [19]. - For lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the average daily prices also show declines. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 58,350 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan (- 0.77%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 59,950 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan (- 0.75%) [22]. Downstream Product Prices - For downstream products, the prices of some products have changed. The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 30,175 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan (- 0.58%); the average price of low - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate is 26,520 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (- 0.38%) [34]. Enterprise Risk Management Strategies - For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short 70% of the lithium carbonate futures (LC2509) to lock in profits, sell 30% of call options, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - For procurement management, when there are future procurement plans and concerns about raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy lithium carbonate forward contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,779, a decrease of 1,014 from the previous day. Some warehouses have changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as Wugang Wuxi, which decreased by 300 lots, and Shanghai Guochu, which decreased by 90 lots [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is strong while the demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 59080 - 60480. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply of ore/salt lake ends with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,127 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.75%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of iron phosphate lithium sample enterprises was 86,102 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 14,857 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28%. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 60,536 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.51%, with a production loss of 879 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 65,237 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, with a production loss of 7,076 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,868 yuan/ton, with a higher profit margin and sufficient production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On June 16, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 720 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of smelters was 57,653 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.94%, higher than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 40,686 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.94%, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 35,210 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.83%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 133,549 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.84%, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 on the disk was downward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, changing from long to short [8]. - **Expectation**: In May 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 72,080 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 78,875 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.43%. The import volume in May was 23,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.35%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may decrease. The price of 6% concentrate CIF has decreased on a daily basis, lower than the historical average. The supply - demand pattern has shifted to supply - dominated [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, lithium carbonate, and cathode materials have shown different degrees of change. For example, the price of 6% spodumene decreased by 0.79% day - on - day, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.25% day - on - day [14]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: In terms of supply, the weekly operating rate was 62.7%, and the daily production cost of spodumene was 60,536 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, the monthly operating rate of iron phosphate was 54%, and the monthly production was 225,200 tons [16]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated, and the production of domestic spodumene and lithium mica has also changed over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has shown different trends for different types of lithium ore [20][21]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium ore shows that there are differences in production, import, export, and demand in different months, resulting in different balance situations [24]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) have changed over time. The import volume of lithium carbonate also shows different trends [26][27]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows that there are differences in production, import, export, and demand in different months, resulting in different balance situations [32]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The production and capacity utilization of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) have changed over time. The export volume of lithium hydroxide also shows different trends [34][35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows that there are differences in production, import, export, and demand in different months, resulting in different balance situations [38]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of producing lithium compounds from different raw materials such as spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials have changed over time. There are also differences in the cost and profit of different production processes and product types [41][42][43]. 3.7 Inventory - **Inventory of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide shows different trends in different periods, including the inventory of smelters, downstream, and other aspects [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price, Production, and Sales**: The price, production, and sales volume of lithium batteries have changed over time. The cost of battery cells also shows different trends [52][53]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, and production of ternary precursors have changed over time. The capacity utilization rate also shows different trends [57][58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows that there are differences in production, import, export, and demand in different months, resulting in different balance situations [61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, and production of ternary materials have changed over time. The operating rate and inventory also show different trends [65][66]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, and production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed over time. The operating rate, export volume, and inventory also show different trends [70][72]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed over time. The retail - wholesale ratio and dealer inventory index also show different trends [77][78][81][82].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View The report indicates that the supply pressure of lithium carbonate is relatively strong, and the weak and volatile trend continues. The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, suggesting a neutral outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 59,940 yuan, down 500 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 169,471 lots, down 237 lots; and the open interest was 147,432 lots, down 15,450 lots. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 59,800 yuan, down 680 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 177,158 lots, up 22,618 lots; and the open interest was 266,931 lots, up 28,351 lots [1]. - **Spot Market**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,650 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,050 yuan, also unchanged. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 629 dollars, down 2 dollars; lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,225 yuan, unchanged [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 60,700 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Project News**: Surge Battery Metals' Nevada North Lithium Project (NNLP) is expected to become a low - cost, long - cycle supply source of battery - grade materials in the US market. The project plans to build a lithium processing plant in two phases, with a total expected ore mining volume of 205 million tons and an average lithium grade of 4016 ppm. The annual processing capacity will reach 4.88 million tons on average over the project's lifecycle [3]. - **Inventory Information**: As of June 13, the lithium ore spot inventory in ports and warehouses of 24 sample lithium ore traders was 222,000 tons, down 1000 tons compared to the previous week. The salable inventory was 81,000 tons, down 9000 tons [3].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The short - term core contradiction in the market is the continuous excess pressure under the situation of increasing supply and stable demand. The lithium carbonate price lacks the momentum for continuous rebound, and attention should be paid to the downstream production resumption progress in June and the cost support strength of lithium ore prices [7] Group 2: Daily Market Summary - On June 6, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 60,440 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous trading day. The futures rebounded and the spot price remained stable, causing the basis to converge [2] - The position of the main contract significantly shrank to 218,416 lots on June 6, a 5.69% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume slightly expanded to 256,782 lots, a 4.98% increase, but there was a lack of continuous position - increasing support [3] - The supply of lithium salts is expected to remain loose. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained flat, and the raw material cost support weakened. The operating rate of lithium salt plants is expected to increase in June, and the long - term supply pressure remains [4] - Downstream demand is structurally differentiated but overall weak. Although new energy vehicle sales are still resilient, power battery production has declined seasonally, and cathode material manufacturers are destocking, suppressing procurement demand [5] - Lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.65% to 132,432 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. The actual de - stocking power is insufficient due to the mismatch between supply and demand [6] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On June 6, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 60,440 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day; the basis was 960 yuan/ton, down 20% [9] - The position of the main contract was 218,416 lots, down 5.69%; the trading volume was 256,782 lots, up 4.98% [9] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 61,400 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The prices of spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and some cathode materials remained flat [9] - The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate was 62.5%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous period. The inventory of lithium carbonate was 132,432 tons, up 0.65% [9] Group 4: Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - The price center of lithium carbonate spot transactions remained stable. In June, the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase while demand remains stable, and the excess pattern will continue [10] - In May, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 105.6 million, a 30% year - on - year increase, and the penetration rate reached 53.5%. The wholesale volume was 124 million, a 37% year - on - year increase [11]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is expected to remain weak in the short term due to oversupply, with prices likely to continue facing downward pressure [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The battery-grade lithium carbonate index price is 60,456 yuan per ton, down 445 yuan per ton from the previous working day [1] - Demand from downstream material manufacturers is limited, with production increases in June being minimal, leading to a reliance on long-term contracts and customer-supplied materials for procurement [1] - On the supply side, previous slight price rebounds have provided opportunities for some non-integrated lithium salt manufacturers to resume production, creating expectations for increased market supply [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being the main issue. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [8][11]. - In the future, it is expected that demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the supply glut situation will improve. The price of lithium carbonate 2507 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60,200 - 61,640 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 16,093 tons, a 22% decrease from the previous week, but still higher than the historical average. In April 2025, production was 73,810 tons, and next - month's production is forecasted to be 75,500 tons, a 2.29% increase [8]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 82,550 tons, a 4.62% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 15,176 tons, a 0.07% decrease [8]. - Cost: The cost of外购 lithium spodumene concentrate is 66,208 yuan/ton, a 0.15% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 5,065 yuan/ton. The cost of外购 lithium mica is 66,952 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, resulting in a loss of 7,321 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,868 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Base - spread**: On May 27, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract was 1,080 yuan/ton, indicating a spot premium, which is bullish [8]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is 131,779 tons, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week, but still higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters increased by 0.87%, while the downstream inventory decreased by 1.36%, and other inventories decreased by 0.21%, which is bearish [8]. - **Market Chart**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 07 contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main players increased, which is bullish [8]. - **Expectation**: In April 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 28,336 tons, and next - month's import volume is forecasted to be 24,000 tons, a 15.3% decrease. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the supply glut situation will improve. The price of lithium carbonate 2507 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60,200 - 61,640 [8]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High - level supply from the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power - battery end to take delivery [10]. - **Main Logic**: Capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to reverse [11]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The futures closing prices of different contracts showed various changes, with the 07 contract increasing by 1.36%. The basis of most contracts decreased, and the number of registered warrants decreased by 2.36% [14]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and related products showed different degrees of change, such as a 0.29% decrease in the price of 6% lithium spodumene and a 0.8% decrease in the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate [14]. - **Positive Material and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium - ion batteries also changed to varying degrees [14]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - **Lithium Ore** - Price: The price of lithium ore showed a downward trend, with the price of 6% lithium spodumene decreasing by 0.29% [14]. - Production and Import: The monthly production and import volume of lithium ore changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also showed fluctuations [24]. - Supply - Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore was in a state of imbalance, with demand generally exceeding production and import in most months [27]. - **Carbonate Lithium** - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, recycling) and the overall production showed different trends [30]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina) and the total import volume changed [30]. - Supply - Demand Balance: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate was also in a state of imbalance, with a surplus in some months and a deficit in others [35]. - **Lithium Hydroxide** - Production: The production of lithium hydroxide from the smelting end and the causticizing end changed, and the overall production showed a slight decrease [17]. - Export: The export volume of lithium hydroxide changed, and the supply - demand balance also showed fluctuations [41]. 3.4 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - The cost - profit situations of外购 lithium spodumene concentrate,外购 lithium mica concentrate, lithium carbonate import, recycling production of lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate, and other processes showed different trends [45][47][50]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, showed different trends over time [52]. 3.6 Demand - Side Data - **Lithium Battery** - Price: The prices of different types of lithium batteries showed fluctuations [56]. - Production and Sales: The monthly production, shipment volume, and export volume of lithium batteries changed [56]. - **Ternary Precursor** - Price: The prices of different types of ternary precursors showed fluctuations [61]. - Production and Supply - Demand Balance: The production capacity utilization rate, production volume, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors changed [61][64]. - **Ternary Material** - Price: The prices of different types of ternary materials showed fluctuations [67]. - Production and Supply - Demand Balance: The weekly start - up rate, production volume, and supply - demand balance of ternary materials changed [67]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate/Phosphate** - Price: The prices of lithium iron phosphate and phosphate showed fluctuations [71]. - Production and Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly production volume, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium iron phosphate and phosphate changed [71][74]. - **New Energy Vehicle** - Production, Sales, and Export: The production volume, sales volume, and export volume of new energy vehicles changed, and the sales penetration rate also increased [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be volatile. The price of the LC2507 contract is projected to range between 55,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton [1][4][5] - The market is transitioning from trading the logic of collapsing mine - end costs to trading the trend of mine shutdowns. However, due to the lack of concentrated shutdowns of high - cost projects and relatively low costs, there is no room for price rebound [4] - For hedging, it is recommended to increase the proportion of buying hedging to 50% in the short - term, and buy spot ore and sell on the futures market to lock in processing profits. In the long - term, selling hedging should still be the main strategy, with a short - term proportion of 30% [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - The LC2507 contract of lithium carbonate declined, with positions decreasing and then stabilizing, followed by a decline with increasing positions. The LC2507 contract closed at 60,960 yuan/ton, down 840 yuan/ton week - on - week; the LC2509 contract closed at 62,300 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price dropped 1,450 yuan/ton to 63,050 yuan/ton [1] - The SMM basis (2505 contract) weakened by 610 yuan/ton to 2,090 yuan/ton. The Fubao trader's premium/discount quotation was + 490 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2507 - 2509 contracts was - 1,340 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals Supply - The lithium ore price dropped to $690/ton, but the decline rate slowed. Some mines started to cut or halt production. In May, the Bikita mining area's emissions nearly stopped, and concentrator work was expected to be cut or stopped. Dongpeng's production cut affected about 1,500 tons of LCE per month [2] - In April, China imported 622,900 tons of spodumene, a 16.5% increase from the previous month, and 28,300 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56.3% increase from the previous month. In the future, the shipments of spodumene and lithium salts from Mali's Kodal and Goulamina projects will gradually increase, while shipments from Zimbabwe projects are expected to decrease. Lithium salt imports are expected to decrease due to high inventories and the cancellation of the reserve price [2] - This week, the lithium carbonate output was 16,093 tons, a 3.23% decrease from the previous week. The overall smelting - end operating rate was 45.75%, a decrease in operation [2] Demand - The 90 - day tariff relaxation period in the US brought a small amount of rush - shipping demand, mainly for the export of energy - storage batteries. However, the tariff level of 40.9% is still higher than the profit of battery cell manufacturers, so the overall effect is limited [2] - This week, the passenger car sales were 382,000 vehicles, among which new energy vehicle sales were 215,000 vehicles, a 3.59% decrease from the previous week. Currently, battery manufacturers' orders to cathode material manufacturers in June are expected to increase month - on - month. However, due to profit losses, cathode material enterprises are maintaining rigid raw material inventory, reducing cathode material production, and actively reducing inventory [2] 3.3 Inventory - The lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly. Upstream enterprises continued to accumulate inventory, while downstream enterprises actively reduced inventory. The lithium carbonate inventory was 13.2 tons, a decrease of 141 tons from last week. The number of futures warrants decreased to 35,800 tons [3] 3.4 Market Outlook - The market is expected to be volatile. The price of the 2507 contract is expected to range between 55,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton. For inter - delivery trading, no recommendation is given for now [4][5]

碳酸锂周报 成本中枢下移，价格延续弱势 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/5/19 01 周度观点 ⚫ 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，4月产量环比减少9%至71652吨。本周碳酸锂产量环比减少205吨至15843吨，3月碳酸锂产量环比增加 24%至78730吨，锂盐厂复产放量较多。近期皮尔巴拉矿业将2025财年的锂精矿生产指导产量下调至70万-74万吨，Bald Hill选矿厂 计划于2024年12月初暂时停止运营。海外进口方面，2025年3月中国锂矿石进口数量为53.45万吨，环比减少6%。其中从澳大利亚 进口30.8万吨，环比增加33%，自津巴布韦进口5.8万吨，环比减少40%，自尼日利亚进口8.5万吨，环比增加83%。3月碳酸锂进口 量为1.81万吨，同比减少5%，自智利进口碳酸锂12718吨，占比70%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比下跌，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑，氢 氧化锂厂商成本压力较大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is relatively sluggish, with the center of the spot transaction price continuing to decline. Downstream enterprises are waiting for further price drops, while upstream lithium salt factories have low willingness to sell due to losses. Traders have a strong willingness to sell. Overall, lithium carbonate is still in a stage of oversupply. The option market has a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows certain characteristics. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 64,280 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 21,487 lots, down 1732 lots; the position of the main contract is 267,396 lots, down 9504 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 740 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 36,244 lots, up 1008 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 65,250 yuan/ton, down 1400 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,600 yuan/ton, down 1400 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 970 yuan/ton, down 1520 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 775 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 7,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,936 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 43,180 tons, up 7490 tons; the monthly import volume is 18,125.49 tons, up 5797.53 tons; the monthly export volume is 220.03 tons, down 197.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 50%, up 8 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 118,300 MWh, up 18000 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 29,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 5.60 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 147,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 129,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 48%, up 8 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.33 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 57%, unchanged; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,277,000 vehicles, up 389000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,237,000 vehicles, up 345000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 41.16%, up 0.85 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and the year - on - year increase is 3,075,000 vehicles, up 985000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 15.80 million vehicles, up 2.70 million vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and the year - on - year increase is 44.10 million vehicles, up 13.40 million vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 14.82%, down 2.04 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 15.31%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 144,258 contracts, up 14958 contracts; the total put position is 51,775 contracts, up 3584 contracts; the total position put - call ratio is 35.89%, down 1.3801 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.24%, up 0.0022 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to the preliminary monthly data of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in April are estimated to be 1.14 million, a year - on - year increase of 42% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The cumulative wholesale from January to April this year is estimated to be 4 million, a year - on - year increase of 42%. In March, the total import and export volume of automobile products was 23.82 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 32.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. The import amount was 3.67 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 3.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.4%; the export amount was 20.15 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 38.9% and a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. 86% of German enterprises in China were affected by the tariff trade war, with the proportions in the machinery and automotive industries reaching 86% and 93% respectively. Three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced ten policy measures, and the financial regulatory authority and the CSRC also launched relevant policies [2].

碳酸锂周报 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/5/6 01 周度观点 ⚫ 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，4月产量环比减少9%至71652吨。3月碳酸锂产量环比增加24%至78730吨，锂盐厂复产放量较多。近期 皮尔巴拉矿业将2025财年的锂精矿生产指导产量下调至70万-74万吨，Bald Hill选矿厂计划于2024年12月初暂时停止运营。海外进 口方面，2025年3月中国锂矿石进口数量为53.45万吨，环比减少6%。其中从澳大利亚进口30.8万吨，环比增加33%，自津巴布韦进 口5.8万吨，环比减少40%，自尼日利亚进口8.5万吨，环比增加83%。3月碳酸锂进口量为1.81万吨，同比减少5%，自智利进口碳酸 锂12718吨，占比70%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比小幅上涨，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑， 氢氧化锂厂商成本压力较大。 淡季需求偏弱，价格偏弱震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 需求端：5月整体排产预计环比持平。3月， ...