1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is relatively sluggish, with the center of the spot transaction price continuing to decline. Downstream enterprises are waiting for further price drops, while upstream lithium salt factories have low willingness to sell due to losses. Traders have a strong willingness to sell. Overall, lithium carbonate is still in a stage of oversupply. The option market has a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows certain characteristics. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 64,280 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 21,487 lots, down 1732 lots; the position of the main contract is 267,396 lots, down 9504 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 740 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 36,244 lots, up 1008 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 65,250 yuan/ton, down 1400 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 63,600 yuan/ton, down 1400 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 970 yuan/ton, down 1520 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 775 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 7,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,936 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 43,180 tons, up 7490 tons; the monthly import volume is 18,125.49 tons, up 5797.53 tons; the monthly export volume is 220.03 tons, down 197.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 50%, up 8 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 118,300 MWh, up 18000 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 29,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 5.60 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 147,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 129,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 48%, up 8 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.33 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 57%, unchanged; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,277,000 vehicles, up 389000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,237,000 vehicles, up 345000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 41.16%, up 0.85 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles and the year - on - year increase is 3,075,000 vehicles, up 985000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 15.80 million vehicles, up 2.70 million vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles and the year - on - year increase is 44.10 million vehicles, up 13.40 million vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 14.82%, down 2.04 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 15.31%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 144,258 contracts, up 14958 contracts; the total put position is 51,775 contracts, up 3584 contracts; the total position put - call ratio is 35.89%, down 1.3801 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.24%, up 0.0022 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to the preliminary monthly data of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in April are estimated to be 1.14 million, a year - on - year increase of 42% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The cumulative wholesale from January to April this year is estimated to be 4 million, a year - on - year increase of 42%. In March, the total import and export volume of automobile products was 23.82 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 32.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. The import amount was 3.67 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 3.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.4%; the export amount was 20.15 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 38.9% and a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. 86% of German enterprises in China were affected by the tariff trade war, with the proportions in the machinery and automotive industries reaching 86% and 93% respectively. Three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced ten policy measures, and the financial regulatory authority and the CSRC also launched relevant policies [2].

碳酸锂周报 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/5/6 01 周度观点 ⚫ 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，4月产量环比减少9%至71652吨。3月碳酸锂产量环比增加24%至78730吨，锂盐厂复产放量较多。近期 皮尔巴拉矿业将2025财年的锂精矿生产指导产量下调至70万-74万吨，Bald Hill选矿厂计划于2024年12月初暂时停止运营。海外进 口方面，2025年3月中国锂矿石进口数量为53.45万吨，环比减少6%。其中从澳大利亚进口30.8万吨，环比增加33%，自津巴布韦进 口5.8万吨，环比减少40%，自尼日利亚进口8.5万吨，环比增加83%。3月碳酸锂进口量为1.81万吨，同比减少5%，自智利进口碳酸 锂12718吨，占比70%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比小幅上涨，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑， 氢氧化锂厂商成本压力较大。 淡季需求偏弱，价格偏弱震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 需求端：5月整体排产预计环比持平。3月， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The production of lithium carbonate in April was basically stable, the production of cathode materials increased slightly, and the supply - demand imbalance narrowed. Social inventories continued to accumulate, and the raw material inventory in the downstream link was at a high level. In the short term, downstream procurement still followed the long - order and customer - supply models, and the futures price was expected to fluctuate weakly [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate had an average price of 69,950 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate had an average price of 68,200 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan [1] - The futures contracts of lithium carbonate (2505, 2506, 2507, 2508, 2509) all showed price increases, with increases of 0.96%, 1.11%, 1.14%, 0.84%, and 0.78% respectively [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li20: 5.5% - 6%) had an average price of 795 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [1] - Lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) had an average price of 950 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) had an average price of 1610 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) had an average price of 6700 yuan/ton; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) had an average price of 7875 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 32,650 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 146,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 117,685 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) was 123,955 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1750 yuan; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract was 970 yuan, down 1590 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was 60 yuan, down 40 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract was 80 yuan, down 80 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) was 131,605 tons, an increase of 585 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) was 52,130 tons, an increase of 398 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) was 41,734 tons, an increase of 787 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) was 37,741 tons, a decrease of 600 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) were 31,735 tons, an increase of 350 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally was 73,659 yuan, and the profit was - 4669 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally was 75,209 yuan, and the profit was - 7893 yuan [3] Industry News - Shandong's 120,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate project was postponed. The 120,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate project of WANRUN NEW ENERGY was postponed to December 2025, and the Lubei WANRUN project had basically completed construction and was in the process of production debugging [3]